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Kohl’s emergence as a hot new meme stock wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card for 2025. The retailer has grappled with declining sales and ongoing leadership challenges, driving a steep drop in its share price over the past several years. But beyond the internet buzz, is there any real reason for optimism about Kohl’s outlook?
Despite recent setbacks, Kohl’s surprised investors in Q1 2025 with a smaller-than-expected 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) drop in comparable sales – fueling speculation that a turnaround might be in the works. The company’s foot traffic gap also narrowed to just 2.7% YoY in Q1, a notable improvement from the 6.0% gap in Q4 2024. In Q2 2025, too, Kohl’s visit-per-location gap remained relatively modest at 3.1%. But monthly YoY data showed substantial volatility, with June experiencing a sharp decline while March through May visits per location held close to last year’s levels.
All in all, Kohl’s clearly has a long way to go to reclaim its former glory – and it’s too soon to tell whether a comeback is indeed in the cards. But with the right strategy, the data does point to some underlying strength that may help the company regain its footing – meme stock or not.
For more data-driven retail analyses, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Pharmacies have weathered a challenging landscape in recent years, marked by shrinking drug margins, rising costs, and heightened competition from online retailers. Major industry leaders have had to rethink their strategies in response.
So with CVS Health set to report earnings later this month, we dove into the data to see how visits to the company’s eponymous pharmacy chain fared in Q2 2025. How have CVS’s rightsizing and optimization efforts impacted visitation? And what can location analytics reveal about some of the strategies that may drive further growth for the chain?
We dove into the data to find out.
CVS Pharmacy began 2025 on a high note. Despite hundreds of recent store closures, the chain posted steady year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout the first half of 2025, with only February seeing a slight dip due to the leap-year comparison.
In the first quarter of the year, CVS Health’s Pharmacy and Consumer Wellness segment reported an 11.1% jump in revenue – driven in part by a 6.7% rise in same-store prescription volume. This growth was reflected in the chain’s solid Q1 visit numbers – a momentum sustained into Q2 2025, when overall foot traffic rose 2.2% YoY and average visits per location saw an even more impressive 5.0% increase.
CVS's strong visit numbers appear to underscore the success of its rightsizing efforts, which have largely focused on optimizing the pharmacy and healthcare side of the business. In addition to closing hundreds of stores, CVS plans to open several smaller-format, pharmacy-first locations – as well as featuring limited over-the-counter offerings. The drugstore leader is also set to absorb prescription files from 625 closing Rite Aid locations, in addition to acquiring 64 of its physical stores.
CVS's pharmacy-focused strategy comes amid softening demand for its front store business – including items like cosmetics, candy, greeting cards, and other over-the-counter products – which saw a 2.4% revenue decline in Q1 2025. Yet location analytics show that these non-medical offerings remain an important traffic driver for CVS – especially during key retail milestones.
In the first half of 2025, for example, Valentine’s Day (February 14th) was CVS's busiest day of the year to date, registering a 39.2% surge in visits compared to the chain’s year-to-date (YTD) daily average and a 26.3% boost compared to an average Friday. Other holidays, including Mother’s Day and Father’s Day, sparked smaller but still significant upticks, as shoppers stopped by for gifts and cards.
CVS’s 2025 visit numbers suggest the chain is adeptly navigating pharmacy’s choppy waters – staying nimble and capitalizing on opportunities as they arise. Will the pharmacy leader continue to thrive in the months ahead?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
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In my last column for The Anchor, I debuted a new quarterly series, entitled “All The Things I Think I Think About Retail Over The Last Quarter.”
Well, another quarter has come and gone, so that means it is time to dust off the shelves and scorecard past predictions as well as to signal what is most top of mind at present.
So, first, the scorecard. Loyal readers of my first column will remember these predictions:
It has only been three months since I put a stake in the ground on all of them, but on the “Nailed It/Too Early To Tell/Dead Wrong” scale, I am feeling pretty darn good about most of the above.
It is way too early to tell on Macy’s, Bloomie’s, and Wayfair. Same goes for Sam’s Club and Sprouts. And, as much as I would like to take a victory lap on these last two especially, the proof will be in the pudding much more down the road. Though I still am feeling like all six will break my way soon.
Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Kohl’s. Kohl’s is such a dumpster fire (meme stock, anyone?) that the very same above prediction is also likely in play for whomever gets chosen as Ashley Buchanan’s ultimate successor.
All of which leads me to…
Over the last quarter, Costco and Target have been a tale of two retailers. One stood strong on DEI, while the other kowtowed to public pressure. Both companies stated their contrasting positions publicly this past January, and the traffic results speak for themselves..
Costco has emerged unscathed, as predicted, while Target now faces concerns that it could become the next Kmart or Sears (and for a whole host of reasons beyond DEI).
The biggest takeaway for me, however?
No matter your personal opinions on DEI, the most important thing retail executives have to ask themselves is, “What matters most to our brand?”
Target and Brian Cornell forgot this one important question. They didn’t do their homework, and thereby took their fingers off the pulse of the Target customer, and clearly the customer has been voting with his or her feet.
It will likely take a regime change with a clear stated purpose to get them back.
I missed on Starbucks, and, frankly, I am kind of pissed about it. I was thrilled when Starbucks’ new CEO Brian Niccol announced his intentions to enliven the in-store Starbucks experience. His promise of “4 Minutes or Less” wait times and his introduction of ceramic mugs had me at Frappuccino.
But then something interesting happened on the way to the coffee roaster.
First, few, if any, baristas have ever offered me a ceramic mug at checkout. Plus, the experience of drinking my coffee in said ceramic mug actually adds more friction to the overall Starbucks’ experience because you still have to go back and wait in line to take your coffee to go.
Second, the wait time promise has also fallen flat. When Niccol first made the announcement, I would go into Starbucks, order at the counter, track the wait time on my phone, and, without fail, get served my coffee in under four minutes. I even proudly shared my improved wait time experiences on social media.
I bought into Brian Niccol’s java-flavored Kool-Aid hook, line, and sinker, but, as much it pains me to admit it, I also forgot one important axiom of retailing – never judge anything out-of-the-gate (which, side note, is also why, in contrast, I have not jumped on the Richard Dickson at Gap Inc. bandwagon yet, too).
Any initial promise for Starbucks in Q1 was quickly overshadowed by Starbucks’ Q2 results. Starbucks same-store sales fell for the fifth straight quarter, with U.S. same-store sales down 2%.
Shame on me. I should have known better.
When running stores, it is easy to get store teams behind anything for a short period of time. I simply made the call too early and now worry the pendulum may be swinging back entirely. Part and parcel, people appear to be spending less time, not more time, in Starbucks since the regime change, which doesn’t bode well.
Any Kool-Aid drinking, whether it be for Niccol, for Dickson, or, as Target CEO Brian Cornell has received during his tenure, should always be reserved until one is sure that results are sustainable.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
The coffee space has become increasingly competitive in recent years. And while traffic to the segment is up, the growth of small and medium sized chains may be coming at the expense of Starbucks. Visits to the reigning coffee giant were down slightly (0.1%) YoY in Q2 2025 while average visits per location declined 4.2% in the same period.
Still, these trends mark an improvement compared to last quarter, when YoY visits and average visits per venue were down 0.9% and 5.4%, respectively – suggesting that the company's "Back to Starbucks" strategy and recent menu innovations are beginning to drive a turnaround.
Meanwhile, Dunkin' – the second-largest coffee chain in the country – is seeing modest growth, with overall visits and average visits per venue up 1.7% and 0.3% YoY, respectively, in Q2 2025. Like Starbucks, Dunkin' showed improvement in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 – perhaps an early sign of strengthening consumer confidence.
But while broader market forces may have helped, Dunkin's Q2 2025 turnaround may also be attributed to the chain's promotional efforts – including a new ad campaign to promote the chain's $6 Meal Deals. As value continues to drive consumer decision-making, Dunkin's emphasis on affordable bundles positions it well to maintain its visit share despite the growing competition in the space.
Dutch Bros, one of the fastest growing coffee brands in recent years, maintained its momentum in Q2 2025, as coffee chains betting on small-format, largely drive-thru locations – including 7Brew, PJ's Coffee, Biggby, and Foxtail – continue to resonate with consumers.
Overall visits to the Oregon-based chain grew 13.8% YoY alongside a 0.8% increase in average visits per venue – indicating that the chain's ongoing expansion is not cannibalizing traffic from existing venues. This bodes well for the brand as it continues its aggressive expansion – 2,029 stores by 2029.
As we look to the second half of 2025, the coffee sector will be characterized by the distinct strategies of its key players. Dutch Bros' aggressive expansion will continue to challenge the incumbents on a local level, while Dunkin's focus on value will likely remain a key advantage with budget-conscious consumers. The ultimate test will be for Starbucks, as the industry leader's ability to translate its strategic innovations into sustained visit growth will determine its capacity to defend its market share.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Shake Shack traffic increased an impressive 13.7% year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2025 while average visits per venue held relatively steady at -1.7% – indicating that the chain's aggressive expansion strategy is capturing new market share without cannibalizing existing locations.
Meanwhile, although Q2 2025 visits to Wingstop were up 3.6%, the chain's average visits per venue declined 6.3% – which may suggest that discretionary dining brands serving lower-income consumers may be experiencing pressure from tightening household budgets.
Analyzing trade area demographic data reveals that Wingstop's captured market has a median household income of $69.5K – significantly lower than Shake Shack's $97.0K. Wingstop's trade area also includes a much higher proportion of households with children.
Wingstop attracts families with tighter budgets who must stretch their dining dollars further, which likely contributed to the decline in average visits per venue during this period of economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, Shake Shack's appeals to higher-income consumers with more discretionary spending power could explain the chain's impressive visit strength despite the ongoing headwinds.
Looking at the change in visit frequency compared to 2024 also suggests that Wingstop is feeling the impact of its visitors' tighter budgets.
Wingstop still maintains a significant advantage in customer loyalty, with 16.8% to 18.1% repeat monthly visitors in H1 2025 compared to Shake Shack's 10.5% to 11.4%. But comparing these numbers to 2024 reveals that Wingstop's share of repeat visitors has declined slightly since 2024, while Shake Shack has posted modest monthly gains throughout H1 2025.
This shift suggests that budget-conscious families may be reducing their regular Wingstop visits to save money, while Shake Shack's strategic expansion is bringing locations closer to customers which could be driving increased repeat visitation.
Despite facing economic headwinds, Wingstop's continued positive visit growth and superior customer loyalty metrics demonstrate the brand's strong fundamentals and deep connection with its core family demographic.
As economic conditions stabilize, Wingstop's established customer base and proven appeal to budget-conscious families positions the chain for a strong rebound, particularly given that families with children represent a large and resilient market segment that will likely return to regular dining patterns when household budgets recover.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining insights.
Eyewear chain Warby Parker continues to be a disruptor. The glasses chain got its start online and made the pivot to brick-and-mortar in 2013. And while many retailers who made that move have since shifted to other retail formats, Warby Parker is pressing on – the brand has plans to open 45 new locations in 2025 alone and is partnering with Target to open store-in-stores in H2 2025.
The chain's ongoing expansion drove year-over-year (YoY) visit increases for all months of 2025 so far. Average visits per location showed more variance – average visits per venue declined 2.7% YoY in Q2 2025 – perhaps reflecting the brand's deliberate focus on market penetration and its use of stores as strategic omnichannel touchpoints rather than purely traffic-dependent locations.
Like Warby Parker, footwear brand Allbirds began online before pivoting to physical retail. But Allbirds is now going in a different direction and shrinking rather than expanding its footprint. In March 2024, the company made the strategic decision to shutter about one-third of its store fleet – and the result has been impressive. While overall visits declined YoY by -12.5% in Q2 2025, visits per location surged, increasing by 18.2% in the same period.
Monthly visits followed a similar pattern, with overall visits generally lower than they were in 2024 while visits per location were largely positive – and looking at visits since the beginning of 2025 shows that the YoY overall visit gap has also been narrowing. Visits in January 2025 were 37.1% lower than they were in January 2024, but by June 2025 that visit gap had narrowed to just 15.1%. Meanwhile, average visits per location were elevated by 13.2% YoY in June 2025. This impressive shift highlights that demand for in-store shopping at Allbirds is strong, and the decision to focus on its highest-performing stores has had the intended effect.
Warby Parker and Allbirds have taken divergent approaches to their brick-and-mortar strategy, and both chains are managing to keep things moving forward.
What will H2 look like for these brands? Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
