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Our recent analysis highlighted Dutch Bros’ push to capture a greater share of morning-daypart visits alongside its aggressive expansion strategy. Now, we’ll dive deeper into the connection between these two aspects of Dutch Bros’ strategy. Using an AI-powered analysis of visitor behavior we’ll explore how Dutch Bros’ play for the morning commuter could help foster brand recognition and loyalty in new markets, driving success as the chain grows its footprint.
Dutch Bros saw consistently positive visit growth in 2025, largely driven by rapid unit expansion, while the chain’s elevated same-store visits indicate strong demand as it entered new markets. The brand’s particularly robust end-of-year momentum may also be linked to its holiday season promotions.
As Dutch Bros grows its footprint, its visitor’s journeys appear consistent with a brand yet to cement itself as part of morning coffee and breakfast routines in new geographies.
In 2025, fewer Dutch Bros visitors came from home immediately before visiting the chain or continued to work immediately after visiting, compared to 2024. This shift may reflect consumers who are encountering the chain more organically as it opens in their area – with curiosity and novelty fueling irregular visits rather than visitation being part of an established routine or commute.
Perhaps morning commuters, the kind Dutch Bros hopes to attract with its aforementioned breakfast strategy, could be the key to turning discovery into loyalty among consumers in new markets.
Viewed together, two facets of Dutch Bros’ growth plan – expansion and morning commuter visits – appear highly complementary; expanded breakfast offerings could potentially facilitate the transition from unfamiliar brand to habitual pit stop as the chain grows its footprint.
What will Dutch Bros’ visit patterns reveal about its growth in the months ahead? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar – Bloomin’s most upscale concept – posted year-over-year visit growth in Q4 2025, while elevated-casual chain Bonefish Grill also sustained traffic gains. Both brands draw disproportionately from higher-income trade areas: Bonefish and Fleming’s captured market median household incomes are $88.0K and $102.6K, respectively, compared with a nationwide median of $79.6K, according to STI: Popstats 2024.
By contrast, Outback Steakhouse saw largely flat traffic in Q4 2025, while Carrabba’s Italian Grill recorded a 3.7% year-over-year decline in visits. These brands attract diners from trade areas with median household incomes closer to the national average – $79.7K for Outback and $82.9K for Carrabba’s.
The traffic trends combined with the trade-area income patterns suggest Bloomin’s brand performance mirrors broader industry dynamics. As consumers remain selective with discretionary spending – particularly on dining out – traffic is increasingly concentrated among higher-end destinations offering a clear “value-plus-experience” proposition or casual chains with a well-defined value proposition. Meanwhile, undifferentiated casual dining brands continue to lag.
Against this backdrop, Outback Steakhouse’s flat to slightly negative same-store traffic through much of H2 2025 reflects its positioning within the more challenged segment of casual dining rather than a lack of strategic focus. Management has outlined plans to sharpen the Outback's value proposition through improvements in food quality, guest experience, and operational consistency – steps designed to better position Outback with diners seeking greater value and differentiation in 2026.
Taken month by month, the data suggest that Bloomin’ Brands’ higher-end concepts benefited from both stronger underlying demand and greater flexibility in capturing discretionary spend. Meanwhile core casual brands remained more exposed to year-end pressure.
Bonefish Grill’s same-store traffic showed episodic strength – most notably in October – indicating periods of solid unit-level demand even as momentum softened into the holidays. Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, by contrast, delivered its strongest gains on an overall traffic basis, pointing to system-level growth and traffic concentration that helped offset more uneven same-store performance.
Meanwhile, Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s Italian Grill saw declines deepen into December across both metrics. This dip underscores the heightened vulnerability of traditional casual dining concepts during the holiday season, when increased competition for discretionary spending tends to pressure lower-differentiated dining occasions.
Looking ahead to 2026, Bloomin’ Brands appears positioned to benefit as stabilizing consumer conditions intersect with ongoing brand-level investments. With higher-end concepts demonstrating resilience and Outback’s repositioning efforts underway, the portfolio is better aligned to capture both experience-driven and value-oriented dining demand.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
What should restaurant operators expect in 2026? Like much of the consumer sector, 2025 was an up-and-down year for the industry. The year started out on a strong note, but visitation trends quickly turned volatile amid uncertainty over tariff news and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. With the threat of higher prices, it’s no surprise that consumers became hyper price sensitive as the year progressed, resulting in a clear bifurcation in trends among diners.
On one hand, affluent consumers – who generally take their spending cues from the health of the stock and housing market – continued to visit more upscale and fine dining chains. Meanwhile, lower and middle income consumers pulled back from QSR and fast casual restaurant chains that they perceived as expensive. This set up a challenging development for many restaurant operators, as consumers traded out of traditionally lower-priced restaurant channels for substitutes across other food retailers. This trend continued for much of the year until McDonald’s and others introduced more value-oriented promotions with pop-culture tie-ins (which we discussed here).
Heading into 2026, where does the restaurant category stand? We’ve highlighted three key trends that restaurant operators, executives, and investors should consider.
As mentioned above, traditionally lower-priced restaurant channels generally had a challenging 2025 headlined by increased competition with other food retailers like value grocers like Trader Joe’s and Aldi, food-forward convenience stores like Wawa, Sheetz, Buc-ee’s, and Casey’s, and warehouse clubs like Costco and Sam’s Club (which have increasingly attracted younger visitors in recent years). In fact, our data suggests a substantial increase in the percentage of QSR visitors also visiting Aldi – and while some of the increase may be attributed to Aldi's expansion, the rise in cross-visitation trends also underscores this competitive encroachment.
While certain players like Taco Bell were able to hold their ground against other food retail competitors, others – like McDonald’s – needed the boost from special promotions like the launch of its Extra Value Meal in September 2025 to win back value-focused consumers.
We’ve already covered some of the key ways that QSR chains plan to wield promotional strategies in 2026, including a focus on freebies, pop-culture tie-ins, sequencing, and storytelling. We’re already seeing some evidence of this with Taco Bell’s Luxe Value Menu featuring 10 menu items priced at $3 or less. However, with several key events taking place in 2026, including the Winter Olympics and World Cup, there will be more opportunities for QSR chains to amplify their value messaging. We may not quite see the return of the Value Wars of 2024 given ongoing input cost inflation pressures, but given the success that McDonald’s and Taco Bell have seen, it’s apparent that value messaging will be critical in 2026.
As macroeconomic and inflationary uncertainty increased throughout 2025, restaurants’ primary competition shifted from other chains to alternative food retail channels, including value grocers, convenience stores, warehouse clubs, and dollar stores. Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright noted this trend on the company’s Q3 2025 earnings conference call as well. While Chipotle noted pressure among customers under $100K in household income from July-September, our data also indicated a major shift in the behavior of fast casual restaurant consumers in trade areas between $100-$125K for much of the second half of 2025.
Where did these consumers go? Like for QSR chains, we believe visits were impacted by a combination of factors – including a shift to differentiated food retailers like Trader Joe’s. Below, we see the percentage of fast casual visitors that also visited Trader Joe’s has increased significantly over the past five years. Like for Aldi, some of this can be attributed to Trader Joe’s expansion plans, but we believe that some visitors have chosen to substitute some fast casual lunch visits for value grocers.
After years of outperforming the industry, these high-growth brands face a "convenience plateau." The price gap between fast-casual and casual dining narrowed to the point where consumers began questioning the value of a $16 bowl eaten at a counter versus a $20 sit-down meal. To win back these consumers in 2026, fast-casual brands must reinvest in the physical experience. This means moving away from "ghost kitchen" vibes and back toward inviting dining rooms, while simultaneously fixing the "mobile order friction" that has made many store lobbies feel chaotic and impersonal.
Both QSR and fast casual chains looking to win back middle-income visitors who have traded down to at-home dining will need to move beyond the $5 value meal. The winners in 2025 realized that value is a calculation of price combined with innovation. McDonald’s "Grinch Meal" and various "limited-time" spicy chicken iterations proved that consumers are willing to spend if the product feels like a unique event. In 2026, restaurants must continue this trend, using "innovation-led value" to justify the discretionary spend of a household that is increasingly selective.
One of the standout stories of 2025 was the continued strength of casual dining giants like Chili’s. Building on the momentum gained in 2024 with the "Big Smasher" burger and clear value messaging (like the "3 for Me" deal), Chili’s didn't just win new customers – it kept them. Data shows that same-store visits to Chili's were up every month of 2025 despite the tough comparison to an already strong 2024.
Observing Chili's successful resurrection through its aggressive "3 for Me" platform and direct antagonism toward fast-food pricing, rivals like Applebee's and Red Robin are frantically adopting the same playbook to win back budget-conscious diners. These chains have largely abandoned complex culinary innovations in favor of simplifying operations and launching hard-hitting tiered meal deals – often priced between $10 and $12 – designed to explicitly undercut the rising cost of a "Big Mac" combo.
By pivoting their marketing to highlight that a sit-down meal with unlimited sides now costs less than a drive-thru visit, competitors are validating Chili's core thesis: the new battleground for casual dining isn't service or ambiance, but proving they are the superior economic alternative to the quick-service sector.
Ultimately, 2026 will be defined by precision rather than broad-stroke expansion. The 'rising tide' era of post-pandemic growth is over; simply opening doors in high-growth Sunbelt markets or offering a generic discount is no longer enough to guarantee traffic. To succeed in this increasingly saturated and price-sensitive environment, operators must execute a delicate balancing act: aggressively defending their value proposition to fight off grocery competitors, while simultaneously reinvesting in the in-store experience to justify the visit. Whether it is through the tactical 'sequencing' of limited-time offers, the aggressive tiered pricing of casual dining, or the revitalization of physical dining rooms, the winners of 2026 will be the brands that give consumers a distinct, irrefutable reason to choose dining out over staying in.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The U.S. grocery sector is increasingly polarized. Traffic and growth are concentrating at the far ends of the quality-savings spectrum, where retailers with clear, disciplined value propositions are pulling ahead. Meanwhile, grocers that sit in the middle – or only weakly signal what they stand for – are struggling to keep pace.
This analysis builds on the insights from dunnhumby's U.S. Retailer Preference Index (RPI) for Grocery.
As the chart below illustrates, visit growth is diverging significantly across grocery formats, with success concentrated at both ends of the quality-price spectrum.
Savings-first retailers such as Aldi have been thriving consistently since 2023, with year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth generally outpacing that of the wider grocery category. Quality-first non-conventional chains like Sprouts Farmers Market have also done well, particularly in 2025 – though their performance lagged behind savings-first chains for much of 2023 and 2024.
But arguably the most consistently impressive performers – with slightly lower YoY growth most months but less volatility over time – have been the so-called “Unicorns”, including chains such as Trader Joe’s and H-E-B that defy grocery’s traditional quality-price tradeoff through extreme focus. By limiting assortments or going all-in on specific geographic areas, these retailers funnel profits back into innovation within their core missions, inspiring deep customer loyalty and creating a virtuous cycle that steadily improves the quality-savings equation.
Middle-of-the-road chains, by contrast, have consistently trailed the pack, struggling to gain traction in a market that increasingly rewards clear, decisive positioning.
But not every chain can be a Unicorn – hence the moniker. And between savings-first and quality-first chains, several indicators (beyond their more consistent YoY growth) suggest that savings-first grocers may be better positioned for long-term growth.
One such signal comes from cross-shopping behavior. In 2025, the share of visitors to Grocery Outlet Bargain Market who visited another grocery store either immediately before or after their trip declined YoY – indicating that more shoppers are treating the savings-first retailer as a primary grocery destination rather than a secondary or fill-in stop. A similar pattern emerged at Unicorn Trader Joe’s.
Quality-first chain Natural Grocers, by contrast, saw a higher and growing share of visitors arriving from another grocery store or heading to one directly afterward, suggesting it is more often part of a multi-stop shopping pattern rather than the first or only trip. As value-oriented chains become more complete grocery solutions, they are capturing a growing share of intentional, first-stop visits, reinforcing their role as everyday essentials rather than complementary alternatives.
Another indication of savings-first retailers’ special growth potential is the rising affluence of their customer base.
While savings-first grocery stores have not yet reached Unicorn status, their assortments have moved well beyond bare-bones essentials, and they are no longer fully trading quality for value. Expanded private-label offerings, improved fresh selections, and tighter SKU curation increasingly emphasize quality alongside cost. And as perceived quality gaps have narrowed, median household income in these retailers’ trade areas has increased – rising from $72.5K in 2022 to $73.1K in 2025. This shift suggests savings-first grocery chains are gaining access to higher-income shoppers who once defaulted to premium formats, expanding both their addressable market and runway for growth.
By contrast, quality-first grocery chains, which serve the most affluent consumers, have seen median household income in their trade areas fluctuate in recent years – rising between 2022 and 2023 before declining thereafter. While this softening could indicate some broadening of their customer base, these formats are built around narrowly defined, premium missions, which may limit the extent to which such broadening can translate into scalable growth. As a result, their path to expansion may be more constrained than savings-first retailers’ upward reach.
As price sensitivity rises and perceived quality differences narrow, the retailers winning today are those with the clearest answers to a simple question: Why shop here instead of anywhere else? And in today’s market, being essential beats being special – unless you can convincingly be both.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Economic pressures created a challenging backdrop for the QSR space in 2025. Many consumers adjusted their dining-out habits, leading to uneven foot traffic across the category. Within this environment, AI-powered location intelligence suggests that Yum! Brands – the parent company of Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill – has been comparatively well positioned. We dove into the data for a closer look at how Yum! and its portfolio performed in 2025 and the most recent Q4.
Although limited-service restaurants faced headwinds in 2025, Yum! Brands appeared to stay ahead of the pack. As a whole, the company's portfolio – QSRs plus the smaller Habit Burger & Grill – posted year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth in every quarter, outperforming the broader QSR category, which recorded YoY visit declines during much of the year.
Beyond value and compelling menu innovation, convenience and ease of experience remain central to why consumers choose limited-service chains. To reinforce its advantage, Yum! has spent the past year expanding its suite of AI-driven technology tools across its brands – platforms designed to optimize restaurant operations, delivery, and digital ordering. The company has even pointed to its proprietary software as an enabler of daily menu drops and viral promotions, reinforcing the other two critical motivations for limited-service diners: craveability and value. As these tools roll out to more locations, the data suggests Yum!’s competitive edge could continue.
An analysis of foot traffic across Yum! Brands’ portfolio highlights which concepts are driving the company’s visit gains. Pizza Hut and Habit Burger & Grill recorded YoY monthly overall visit and same-store visit growth in most of Q4 2025 – indicating that underlying demand remains intact despite heightened volatility in the current economic environment.
Of the four brands, however, Taco Bell remains Yum!’s primary driver of growth. The brand delivered the largest and most consistent YoY monthly overall visit and same-store visit growth throughout Q4 2025 – with National Taco Day promotions and the return of Cheesy Dipping Burritos likely contributing to elevated traffic.
Meanwhile, KFC experienced month-to-month visit gaps throughout Q4 2025 while mustering nearly flat same-store visits. This could suggest that while the brand has consolidated its footprint, existing locations see sufficient demand to support a broader turnaround strategy.
Even as economic pressures continue to reshape how consumers engage with limited-service dining, Yum! Brands appears well positioned to navigate ongoing uncertainty. A combination of operational investment and consumer-facing innovation suggests the company’s portfolio has built a durable foundation to support evolving market conditions.
Want more restaurant industry insights? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Saks Global’s Chapter 11 filing reflects a convergence of balance-sheet pressure and evolving consumer behavior rather than a sudden collapse of its brands or customer relevance. Following the acquisition of Neiman Marcus in late 2024, the company carried a significantly higher debt load, which reduced financial flexibility at a time when the broader luxury department store sector was facing uneven demand.
But while a missed interest payment was the immediate catalyst for the bankruptcy filing, traffic data suggests that the challenges facing Saks Global extended beyond balance-sheet constraints. AI-powered traffic data shows that Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus were underperforming most major department stores both on average visits per venue and on rates of repeat visitors already in H1 – before supplier relationships became more visibly strained. So even if inventory constraints and vendor caution likely amplified these trends in H2, the data suggests that softer consumer engagement with these chains was also due to earlier challenges in delivering an experience that consistently brought shoppers through the door.
(Kohl’s is a notable exception – while it underperformed Neiman Marcus on year-over-year visits per venue in H1, the banner still maintained the highest rate of repeat visitation by far, pointing to a more resilient customer base that can help cushion short-term traffic volatility).
Analyzing in-store behavior at Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus relative to other premium department stores is also revealing. Both banners skew more heavily toward midday and weekday visits than Nordstrom or Bloomingdale’s, a pattern that suggests a greater reliance on proximity- and convenience-driven traffic rather than by planned destination trips.
In contrast, Nordstrom and Bloomingdale's capture more visits during evenings, and weekends – times typically associated with browsing, social shopping, and occasions when shoppers are more willing to spend time in-store. These visit patterns reinforce the idea that Saks and Neiman Marcus are currently attracting more “pop-in” visits than experience-led ones.
Looking ahead, Saks Global’s path out of bankruptcy depends on repairing its balance sheet while rebuilding in-store experiences that support destination-driven shopping. To remain competitive, the company will need to restore consistent inventory, sharpen merchandising curation, and reinvest in service and experiences that encourage planned visits rather than incidental stop-ins.
At the same time, the data suggests a clear framework for rationalizing the footprint. Underperforming locations are likely those that skew heavily toward weekday, midday, and low-frequency visits, signaling reliance on proximity rather than loyalty or experience. These stores may struggle to justify continued investment, particularly if they sit in markets with limited repeat demand or weak engagement relative to peers. By using traffic trends, visit timing, and repeat behavior to guide closure or consolidation decisions, Saks Global can emerge from bankruptcy with a smaller but healthier store base – one aligned around markets where the brand can reclaim its role as a destination. In that sense, bankruptcy offers not just a financial reset, but a chance to refocus the business around the stores and experiences most likely to drive sustainable, long-term demand.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The first quarter of 2024 was generally a good one for retailers. Though unusually cold and stormy weather left its mark on the sector’s January performance, February and March saw steady year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit growth that grew more robust as the quarter wore on.
March ended on a high note, with the week of March 25th – including Easter Sunday – seeing a 6.1% YoY visit boost, driven in part by increased retail activity in the run-up to the holiday. (Last year, Easter fell on April 9th, 2023, so the week of March 25th is being compared to a regular week.)
Though prices remain high and consumer confidence has yet to fully regain its footing, retail’s healthy Q1 showing may be a sign of good things to come in 2024.
Drilling down into the data for leading retail segments demonstrates the continued success of value-priced, essential, and wellness-related categories.
Discount & Dollar Stores led the pack with 11.2% YoY quarterly visit growth, followed by Grocery Stores, Fitness, and Superstores – all of which outperformed Overall Retail. Dining also enjoyed a YoY quarterly visit bump, despite the segment’s largely discretionary nature. And despite the high interest rates continuing to weigh on the housing and home renovation markets, Home Improvement & Furnishings maintained just a minor YoY visit gap.
Discount & Dollar Stores experienced strong YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – and as go-to destinations for groceries and other other essential goods, they held their own even during mid-January’s Arctic blast. In the last week of March, shoppers flocked to leading discount chains for everything from chocolate Easter bunnies to basket-making supplies – driving a remarkable 21.5% YoY visit spike.
Dollar General continued to dominate the Discount & Dollar Store space in Q1, with visits to its locations accounting for nearly half of the segment’s quarterly foot traffic (44.7%). Next in line was Dollar Tree, followed by Family Dollar and Five Below. Together, the four chains – all of which experienced positive YoY quarterly visit growth – drew a whopping 91.6% of quarterly visits to the category.
Rain or shine, people have to eat. And like Discount & Dollar Stores, traditional Grocery Stores were relatively busy through January as shoppers braved the storms to stock up on needed items. Momentum continued to build throughout the quarter, culminating in a 10.5% foot traffic increase in the week ending with Easter Sunday.
Like in other categories, it was budget-friendly Grocery banners that took the lead. No-frills Aldi drove a chain-wide 24.4% foot traffic increase in Q1, by expanding its fleet – while also growing the average number of visits per location. Other value-oriented chains, including Trader Joe’s and Food Lion, experienced significant foot traffic increases of their own. And though conventional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger, and Albertsons saw smaller visit bumps, they too outperformed Q1 2023 by meaningful margins.
January is New Year’s resolution season – when people famously pick themselves up off the couch, dust off their trainers, and vow to go to the gym more often. And with wellness still top of mind for many consumers, the Fitness category enjoyed robust YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – despite lapping a strong Q1 2023.
Predictably, Fitness’s visit growth slowed during the last week of March, when many Americans likely indulged in Easter treats rather than work out. But given the category’s strength over the past several years, there is every reason to believe it will continue to flourish.
For Fitness chains, too, cost was key to success in Q1 – with value gyms experiencing the biggest visit jumps. EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, both of which offer low-cost membership options, saw their Q1 visits skyrocket 28.9% and 22.0% YoY, respectively – helped in part by aggressive expansions. At the same time, premium and mid-range gyms like Life Time and LA Fitness are also finding success – showing that when it comes to Fitness, there’s plenty of room for a variety of models to thrive.
Superstores – including wholesale clubs – are prime destinations for big, planned shopping expeditions – during which customers can load up on a month’s supply of food items or stock up on home goods. And perhaps for this reason, the category felt the impact of January’s inclement weather more than either dollar chains or supermarkets – which are more likely to see shoppers pop in as needed for daily essentials.
But like Grocery Stores and Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores ended the quarter with an impressive YoY visit spike, likely fueled by Easter holiday shoppers.
As in Q4 2023, membership warehouse chains – Costco Wholesale, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club – drove much of the Superstore category’s positive visit growth, as shoppers likely engaged in mission-driven shopping in an effort to stretch their budgets. Still, segment mainstays Walmart and Target also enjoyed positive foot traffic growth, with YoY visits up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively.
Moving into more discretionary territory, Dining experienced a marked January slump, as hunkered-down consumers likely opted for delivery. But the segment rallied in February and March, even though foot traffic dipped slightly during the last week of March, when many families gathered to enjoy home-cooked holiday meals.
Coffee Chains and Fast-Casual Restaurants saw the largest YoY visit increases, followed by QSR – highlighting the enduring power of lower-cost, quick-serve dining options. But Full-Service Restaurants (FSR) also saw a slight segment-wide YoY visit uptick in Q1 – good news for a sector that has yet to bounce back from the one-two punch of COVID and inflation. Within each Dining category, however, some chains experienced outsize visit growth – including favorites like Dutch Bros. Coffee, Slim Chickens, In-N-Out Burger, and Texas Roadhouse.
Since the shelter-in-place days of COVID – when everybody had their sourdough starter and DIY was all the rage – Home Improvement & Furnishings chains have faced a tough environment. Many deferred or abandoned home improvement projects in the wake of inflation, and elevated interest rates coupled with a sluggish housing market put a further damper on the category.
Against this backdrop, Home Improvement & Furnishings’ relatively lackluster Q1 visit performance should come as no surprise. But the narrowing of the visit gap in March – which also saw one week of positive visit growth – may serve as a promising sign for the segment. (The abrupt foot traffic drop during the week of March 25th, 2024 is likely a just reflection of Easter holiday shopping pattern.)
Within the Home Improvement & Furnishings space, some bright spots stood out in Q1 – including Harbor Freight Tools, which saw visits increase by 10.0%, partly due to the brand’s growing store count. Tractor Supply Co., Menards, and Ace Hardware also registered visit increases.
January 2024’s stormy weather left its mark on the Q1 retail environment, especially for discretionary categories. But as the quarter progressed, retailers rallied, with healthy YoY foot traffic growth that peaked during the last week of March – the week of Easter Sunday. All in all, retail’s positive Q1 performance leaves plenty of room for optimism about what’s in store for the rest of 2024.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
