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Shoppers continue to prioritize value in 2024, offering opportunities for discount and dollar stores to thrive during the upcoming holiday season.
With that in mind, we took a look at visitation metrics – both from 2024 and from previous years – to see how the segment is performing and what the crucial holiday season might hold for discount retailers Dollar Tree and Dollar General.
Discount and dollar stores continue to benefit from an inflation-impacted economy, with category leaders like Dollar Tree and Dollar General continuing to expand their footprints to serve the increasing number of budget-conscious shoppers.
And in large part thanks to the increased store count, visits to Dollar Tree and Dollar General have continued to increase – Q3 2024 visits to the chains were up by 5.3% and 4.8% YoY, respectively. Monthly visits also showed impressive growth, with October 2024 visits up by 7.6% at Dollar Tree and 7.8% at Dollar General. These growth numbers may be slightly lower than the visit increases posted by the category in the past – but the ongoing positive performance by discount & dollar store leaders indicates that the category remains one of the most consistently strong players in the wider retail space.
November and December are typically the most important months for retailers as multiple shopping events – Turkey Wednesday, Black Friday, Christmas Eve Eve, and Boxing Day – drive consumers to the tills. And while many retailers open the holiday season with visit spikes driven by big Black Friday discounts, the visitation patterns look slightly different at discount chains, where prices are already low and discounts are – as their name implies – already applied. So when do these retailers get their holiday visit boosts?
Comparing weekly visit numbers in 2021, 2022, and 2023 to each year’s weekly average reveals differences between the two discount & dollar store leaders. Visits to Dollar Tree gradually increase from early November onward and peak on the last full week before Christmas, likely driven by shoppers flocking to its stores to pick up snacks, gift wrap, and stocking stuffers. Meanwhile, Dollar General’s visits exhibited more stability – although visits were higher than average between Black Friday and Christmas Eve Eve, the increase was much more muted relative to Dollar Tree’s holiday spike. Dollar General’s softer holiday traffic may be due to the expansion of its Dollar General Market concept, which turned many of its stores into destinations for fresh foods – so consumers may be treating Dollar General more like a grocery store and less like a holiday shopping spot.
Previous years’ visitation patterns indicate that the busiest time of the year is still ahead for Dollar General and Dollar Tree. How will these retailers perform during the critical pre-Christmas rush? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Heading into the Q3 2024 retailer reporting period, most expected Walmart to continue gaining market share from essentials-focused retailers. In our coverage of Walmart’s Q2 2024 update, we highlighted the chain’s significant disruption in the grocery category, driven by everyday low pricing, Walmart+ store delivery orders, store remodeling efforts, an improved selection of premium merchandise, and a broadened marketplace offering. These strategies notably boosted visits among higher-income households earning $100,000 or more annually.
While Walmart did indeed disrupt essentials retailers this quarter, what stood out even more was its impact across discretionary categories. Management reported low-single-digit comparable sales growth in general merchandise, with mid-single-digit unit growth offsetting low-to-mid single-digit price deflation. Categories like home, toys, and hardlines led this growth, complemented by strength in beauty, fashion, and apparel. Walmart’s marketplace played a key role in this success, offering consumers a broader selection of brands and items than in-store. Marketplace sales in beauty, toys, hardlines, and home each grew by 20% year-over-year.
To assess Walmart’s impact on other general merchandise retailers, we analyzed cross-visitation trends. Our data indicates that year-over-year cross-visitation between Walmart and other hardgoods retailers like Best Buy, GameStop, Lowe’s, Home Depot, Hibbett Sports, Sportsman Warehouse, and Big 5—as well as pet retailers like Petco and PetSmart—declined. This suggests a potential shift in consumer behavior, with shoppers consolidating more of their general merchandise purchases at Walmart.
To confirm Walmart's impact on general merchandise, we analyzed visitation trends across several discretionary categories from July to November 2024 (below). With the exceptions of beauty and home furnishings—more on that category in a minute—most categories experienced year-over-year declines throughout much of the August to October quarter. Notably, mid-October brought a temporary improvement in visit trends, coinciding with major promotional events such as Amazon’s Big Deal Days, Walmart’s Holiday Deals Event, and Target’s Circle Week, underscoring how deal-driven consumers are in today’s environment. Following these promotions, shopping activity largely paused until last week, when Black Friday deal announcements began to drive renewed interest.
Home furnishings deserve a closer look. Earlier this year, we noted strong visit trends in housewares retail, and that momentum has largely continued. Mattress retailers, which began the year on a high note, have also maintained positive year-over-year visitation growth in the second half of 2024. Notably, furniture retailers—both value-focused and full-priced—saw year-over-year visitation gains during the quarter, though there was a slight pause in November as consumers waited for Black Friday deals.
These trends align with the third-quarter 2024 update from Williams-Sonoma, where management highlighted improvements in furniture sales at its West Elm and Pottery Barn brands. Additionally, the company cited strength in seasonal items and housewares, suggesting that Walmart’s strong performance in the home category reflects both broader industry trends and its own merchandising improvements. These patterns may also mark the early stages of a new home furnishings cycle as we near the five-year anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Walmart’s strong performance in discretionary categories serves as a warning to other discretionary retailers to elevate their strategies ahead of the holiday shopping season. With in-store merchandise enhancements and a robust third-party marketplace offering access to over 700 million stock-keeping units (SKUs), Walmart is positioned to be even more competitive this holiday season.
With the rise of hybrid and remote work, we’ve observed a notable shift in everyday consumer behaviors, particularly around fitness, shopping, running errands, and grabbing takeout. Without the need to commute on certain days, it’s easier for consumers to squeeze in a workout or make a quick trip to a store. Local outdoor shopping centers have become prime beneficiaries of this new “pop-in, pop-out” behavior. Here, we explore some of the brands poised to thrive in this evolving landscape.
At the start of this year, we predicted that the beauty category boom we witnessed last year would persist, with wellness and self-care becoming integral parts of that definition. For many, self-care includes a good workout, whether low-impact or high-intensity. We've previously highlighted fitness trends, with brands like Club Pilates and Orangetheory Fitness continuing to demonstrate year-over-year growth. A perfect post-workout activity might include a massage or chiropractic session to ease sore muscles or restore alignment—services that have driven increased traffic for brands like Massage Envy and Joint Chiropractic. Another standout is Madison Reed, which offers "salon results without salon cost or time" and continues to expand its footprint.
The next group of brands stands out for their ubiquity—you’re likely to find one or more of these stores in any local outdoor shopping center. UPS is indispensable for shipping and returning items, serving as a go-to for everyday logistics. Meanwhile, telecommunications and internet service providers like AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Xfinity maintain a steady customer base, driven by the regular upgrade cycle for cell phones and service plans.
Another home improvement and furnishings replacement cycle may be upon us. Pandemic-driven nesting behaviors accelerated demand in previous years, but now, many consumers are cautiously approaching this phase. Instead of investing in big-ticket items like dining or living room furniture, there’s growing enthusiasm for budget-friendly updates, such as applying a fresh coat of paint. Sherwin-Williams stands out as a key player, experiencing increased foot traffic. This rise in paint store visits could signal a positive trend for future investments in home improvement, redecorating, and refurnishing.
Next, we have some tasty additions perfect for local outdoor shopping centers. Americans’ love affair with chicken shows no signs of slowing down. Dave’s Hot Chicken has developed a cult following for its juicy, flavorful chicken, while Raising Cane’s draws loyal fans for its irresistible tenders and signature sauce. Bb.q Chicken offers a unique twist, boasting over a dozen wing flavors, including Caribbean Spice, Hot Mala, and Cheesling cheese dust.
With Black Friday just a week away, it's the perfect time to reflect on the state of retail and what lies ahead over the next 28 days as consumers prepare for holiday gatherings, celebrations, and gift-giving. The retail industry in 2024 has been anything but consistent—some categories continue to thrive, others have struggled, and a few are clawing their way back to prominence.
This year’s holiday season is likely to follow a similar pattern, but the key differentiator is time. As we highlighted in our TL;DR newsletter on LinkedIn this week, the 2024 holiday shopping period has five fewer days compared to last year, reminiscent of the 2019 vs. 2018 holiday timeline. Holiday shopping kicked off earlier this year, with department stores seeing increased activity in October. With a condensed holiday window, it’s now up to retailers to drive more frequent visits and encourage consumers to linger longer in their stores.
Analyzing daily visits during last year’s holiday season, there were five weekends compared to four this year. Across key holiday gifting retail categories in 2023, those five weekends (Saturday and Sunday combined) accounted for 39% of total holiday season visits, defined as Thanksgiving Day through Christmas Eve. Individually, each weekend contributed between 7% and 9% of total sector visitation, with the last two weekends each capturing 9%. In 2024, each weekend would need to account for approximately 10% of total holiday season visits to match last year’s pace.
One advantage of having fewer weekends between Thanksgiving and Christmas is the reduction in lull periods, which are traditionally challenging for retailers trying to attract visitors. This year, two of the four weekends include Black Friday weekend and Super Saturday. In 2023, Black Friday alone accounted for 7% of total holiday visitation across the analyzed sectors, meaning a strong Black Friday could help offset the impact of having fewer weekends. By sector, Black Friday holds particular importance for department stores and consumer electronics retailers, as they typically see a higher share of visits on that day compared to other categories.
Another way to offset the five fewer shopping days? Increasing the time consumers spend in stores. In 2023, dwell times during Black Friday weekend (Thursday–Sunday) were, on average, three minutes longer than the full-year average across the analyzed sectors. Department stores had the largest gap, with visitors staying six minutes longer than average on Black Friday, followed by consumer electronics, superstores, and beauty retailers. These sectors are among the most popular for holiday shoppers during Black Friday weekend, making it encouraging that visitors stayed longer while seeking holiday deals.
A final advantage for physical retail is that fewer shopping days mean a shorter delivery window for e-commerce. With less time to shop, the holidays could sneak up on consumers, potentially driving more visitors into stores this year. While this is purely speculative, our enthusiasm for physical retail at Placer compels us to make at least one bold prediction!
The past several years have been a boom period for affordable indulgences – with consumers tightening their purse strings and finding inexpensive ways to treat themselves. Against this backdrop, discount specialty retailers Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet have been growing their footprints – and their audiences. But have the two chains reached their growth ceilings? How did they fare in Q3 2024 – and what can they expect this holiday season?
We dove into the data to find out.
Five Below opened a record 205 new stores last year, leaning into growing consumer demand for low-cost toys, decor, and other indulgences. And though the chain announced plans to moderate fleet growth following a below-target Q2 2024, visit data shows that overall, the chain remains well-positioned for continued success. In Q3 2024, Five Below’s growing footprint fueled a 13.8% chain-wide year-over-year (YoY) visit boost. Though the average number of visits to each individual Five Below location remained slightly below 2023 levels, the chain’s visit-per-location gap narrowed to 1.6% from 4.3% in Q2. And in some key growth markets, Five Below saw significant increases in both YoY visits and visits per location: California, one of Five Below’s biggest regional markets and the focus of a major expansion push this year, saw visits per location grow 4.4% amidst a 21.6% overall visit increase.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet is another value-focused specialty retailer that has benefited from consumer trading down in recent years. And foot traffic data highlights the success of Ollie’s ongoing expansion: In Q3 2024, foot traffic to Ollie’s increased 7.5% YoY, while the average number of visits to each Ollie’s location also increased slightly by 0.9%. Though this represents a smaller visit-per-location increase than that seen in Q2, Ollie’s ability to maintain strong per-location visit levels while increasing its store count shows that the chain’s offerings are still meeting robust demand. And Ollie’s shows no sign of slowing down – snapping up former Big Lots store leases and plotting westward expansion.
Five Below and Ollie’s are both popular holiday shopping destinations. But what can the two retailers expect this year?
Visit data shows that Five Below and Ollies experience holiday milestones somewhat differently. Ollie’s, with its broad selection of deeply discounted high-ticket items, sees a slightly bigger Black Friday spike than Five Below: On November 24th, 2023, visits to Ollie’s surged by 222.9% compared to a 2023 daily average, higher than Five Below’s none-too-shabby 204.1%.
Meanwhile, the run-up to Christmas is is Five Below’s time to shine – with visits slowly increasing throughout December before reaching a crescendo on Super Saturday. In 2023, Five Below’s busiest day of the year was December 23rd, as customers flocked to the chain to pick up stocking stuffers, festive decor, and other inexpensive holiday items. Ollie’s, on the other hand, saw a more moderate 171.7% Super Saturday visit increase. As Five Below continues to expand its pricier “Five Beyond” offerings, Black Friday may take on greater importance for the retailer in coming years.
But while Ollie’s visit peaks were more subdued than those of Five Below throughout most of the holiday season, the chain’s treasure hunt vibe consistently drew longer visitor dwell times. On Black Friday last year, 26.5% of visitors to Ollie’s remained in-store for more than 45 minutes, compared to just 18.3% at Five Below. And despite Ollie’s significantly smaller Super Saturday crowds, customers spent substantially more time browsing its aisles to snag the perfect bargain find.
Five Below and Ollie’s both appear poised to enjoy a busy holiday season. Will the retailers deliver?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
The Kroger Co. has come a long way from its humble beginnings as a single grocery store in downtown Cincinnati, Ohio, in 1883. Today, the brand operates over 2,700 stores under its numerous grocery store banners.
We analyzed the visitation patterns at some of Kroger’s largest chains to see how these brands have fared over the past few months, and looked at what last year’s visit data can tell us about the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday.
The Kroger Co.’s various grocery banners vary in size and scale, with its eponymous banner Kroger – more than 1200 stores across much of the midwest and south – attracting the largest visit share relative to the company’s full grocery portfolio. Kroger’s other major regional chains, including Harris Teeter (mid and south atlantic states); Ralphs (California), King Soopers (primarily Colorado), Food 4 Less (California, Illinois, and Indiana), Smith’s (Mountain states), Fry’s (Arizona), and Fred Meyer (Pacific northwest), lend the company considerable presence nationwide.
On the whole, visits to the analyzed Kroger chains remained fairly close to 2023’s levels, with visits to Kroger, Fred Meyer, Harris Teeter, Smith’s, and Fry’s sustaining minor YoY visit gaps. No-frills value chain Food 4 Less enjoyed 2.7% YoY visit growth in Q3, likely buoyed by the same trading down behaviors that have propelled growth at other low-cost supermarkets this year. Ralphs and King Soopers also saw YoY visit growth, perhaps aided by California and Colorado’s relatively high median household incomes (HHIs) – $94.1K and $89.1K, respectively, according to data from STI: PopStats, compared to the nationwide baseline of $76.1K.
Kroger’s extensive reach allows it to appeal to a wide range of grocery shoppers. The company operates both discount grocery chains, such as Food 4 Less, more upscale ones like Harris Teeter, and everything in between.
Diving into the share of visits lasting 30 minutes or longer at individual Kroger banners reveals substantial variation, with Fred Meyer and Food 4 Less receiving the highest shares of long visits among the analyzed chains. In Q3 2024, 30.3% of Fred Meyer visits and 30.7% of Food 4 Less visits lasted over 30 minutes – a stark contrast to Ralphs (20.9%), Harris Teeter (22.6%) and King Soopers (23.5%).
This variance in dwell times may reflect the differing offerings of each chain. Hypermarket Fred Meyer provides a wide range of services beyond groceries – including pharmacies, department stores, and jewelry offerings – which could encourage shoppers to spend more time exploring. And Food 4 Less falls squarely into the discount grocery segment, one that often sees customers spending more time in-store searching for the best deals.
While not (yet!) an official holiday, Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is one of the most important days of the year for grocers as shoppers flock to stores to pick up last-minute items for their upcoming feasts.
And while Thanksgiving is still over a week away, analyzing trends from previous years can help grocers prepare for the coming frenzy. On November 22nd, 2023 – the day before Thanksgiving – visits across all analyzed Kroger chains shot up between 55.3% and 92.6% compared to the daily visit average for 2023. And visitors at each of the chains stayed longer in-store than they typically did during the rest of the year.
With visits to Kroger’s major banners either nearly on par with or ahead of last year’s levels, the company appears well-positioned to enjoy another year of strong Turkey Wednesday visits.
If previous years are any indication, Kroger’s grocery banners should be preparing for a surge in Thanksgiving shopping. Will visits outpace those of last year?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven grocery insights.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
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Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Many stadiums host concerts and other shows in addition to regularly held sporting matches and can accommodate tens of thousands of spectators at once – creating massive retail, dining, and advertisement opportunities.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence metrics for some of the biggest stadiums across the country to reveal the commercial potential of these venues beyond simple ticketing revenue. Where do visitors of various stadiums like to shop? Do specific sporting and cultural events impact the nearby restaurant scene differently? How can stadium operators, local businesses, and advertisers tailor their offerings to a stadium’s particular audience and make the most of the stadium and the space throughout the year?
We take a closer look below.
The three major sports leagues – the National Basketball League (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Football League (NFL) – play at different points of the year, and the number of games each league holds during the season also varies.
MLB leads in game frequency, with each team playing 162 games during the regular season, which runs approximately from April through September. Basketball season is also around six months – roughly from mid-October to mid-April – but each NBA team plays only 82 games a season. And the NFL has both the shortest season – 18 weeks running from early September to early January (with the pre-season starting in August) – and the fewest number of matches per team. Understanding the monthly visitation patterns for the various types of stadiums can help advertisers, stadium operators, and other stakeholders ensure that they are leveraging the full potential of the venue throughout the year.
Unsurprisingly, the sports arenas serving the different leagues see visit spikes during their leagues’ respective season. But comparing visit numbers throughout the year to the average monthly visit numbers for each category in 2023 reveals that the relative visit increases and decreases during the on- and off-season vary for each type of stadium.
MLB stadiums display the steadiest visit strength during the on-season – perhaps due to MLB’s packed game schedule. MLB tickets also tend to be relatively affordable compared to tickets to pro football or basketball matches, which may also contribute to MLB’s consistently strong visit numbers throughout the season. During the MLB off-season, baseball fields – which tend to be uncovered – are relatively empty.
The seasonal visit spike to NBA arenas is less steady. The beginning and end of the season see strong peaks, and visits slow down slightly during the mid-season months of January and February. Visits then drop during the off-season spring and summer, but the off-season visit dip is not as low as it is for MLB fields – perhaps because the NBA arenas’ indoor nature make them suitable locations for concerts and other non-basketball events.
Meanwhile, NFL stadiums see the least dramatic drop in visits during the NFL off-season, as these venues’ enormous size also make them the ideal location for concerts and other cultural events that draw large crowds. These arenas’ strong almost year-round visitation numbers mean that sponsors and advertisers looking to expand beyond sports fans to reach a diverse audience may have the most success with these venues.
Although MLB offers the most budget-friendly outing, combining STI: Popstats demographic metrics with trade area data reveals that MLB stadium visitors reside in higher-income areas when compared with visitors to NBA or NFL stadiums.
Baseball fans tend to be older than fans of the other sports, which could partially explain MLB stadium visitors’ higher household income (HHI). The combination of lower ticket prices, higher median HHI among fans, and many games per season offers baseball stadiums significant opportunities to engage effectively with their fan bases.
But while NBA and NFL stadium attendees may not come from as high-income areas as do MLB stadium visitors, fans of live basketball and football still reside in trade areas with a higher HHI compared to the nationwide median. So by leveraging stadium space, advertisers and other stakeholders can reach tens of thousands of relatively high-income consumers easily and effectively.
Sports fans are known to be passionate, engaged, and willing to spend money on their team – but stadium visitors also shop for non-sports related goods and services. Retailers and advertisers can draw on location analytics to uncover the consumer preferences of stadium visitors and tailor campaigns, sponsorships, and collaborations accordingly.
Visitation data to the top five most visited MLB stadiums during 2023 showed differences between the apparel and sporting goods shopping preferences of the various stadiums’ attendees. While 39.4% of visitors to Truist Park also visited DICK’s in 2023, only 30.8% of Yankee Stadium visitors stopped by the sporting goods retailer in the same period. Similarly, while 29.9% of visitors to Yankee Stadium frequented Kohl’s, that percentage jumped to 47.3% for Busch Stadium visitors.
Harnessing location intelligence to see the consumer preferences of a stadium’s visitor base can help retailers, stadium operators, and even team managers choose partnerships and merchandising agreements that will yield the most effective results.
Sports and snacks go hand in hand – what would a baseball game be without a hot dog or peanuts? But while every stadium likely provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. And by leveraging location analytics to gain visibility into stadium-goers dining habits, stadium operators and local food businesses can understand how to best serve each arena’s audience.
Mapping where stadium visitors dine before and after games can help stakeholders in the stadium industry reach more fans.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
All of the stadiums analyzed exhibited unique visitor dining tastes, a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
Zooming in to look at consumer behavior around individual events reveals further variability in dining preferences even among visitors to the same stadium, with different types of events driving distinct dining behaviors.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is home to the Arizona Cardinals. The stadium hosted the 2023 Super Bowl, but the NFL stadium also acts as a concert venue for acts ranging from Taylor Swift to Metallica. And location intelligence reveals that the dining preferences of stadium visitors vary based on the events held at the venue.
During the Super Bowl, sports bars such as Yard House and Buffalo Wild Wings saw the largest increase in visits compared to the chains’ daily average. A month later, attendees at Taylor Swift's concert gave fried-chicken leader Raising Cane’s a significant boost.
Local restaurants can leverage location analytics to see what types of events are popular with their visitor base and craft collaborations and advertising campaigns that resonate effectively with their patrons.
Sports stadiums and arenas are not just spaces for sports and music enthusiasts to gather; they also offer significant commercial opportunities for the surrounding communities. Stadium operators and local businesses can fine-tune their offerings by utilizing location analytics to better connect with their visitor bases and uncover new retail opportunities.
