.svg)
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include government buildings or mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
RTO mandates seem to be everywhere. Following the federal government’s example, local governments from the City of Atlanta to the State of Texas have introduced stricter in-office requirements. And an increasing number of corporations are demanding full-time in-person work – including firms like JPMorgan, which began enforcing a five-day RTO mandate in early March.
But what does ground-level data tell us about how these new policies are affecting office attendance in practice? Did the RTO slowdown observed in January and February continue into March? Or is a new resurgence underway?
The latest data from the Placer.ai Office Index suggests that nationwide office visits may be trending upwards once again. Although March 2025 office visit levels didn’t match the peaks of October and July 2024, visits last month were only 32.2% below March 2019 levels – an improvement over March 2024.
Significantly, among months with 21 or fewer working days, March 2025 ranked as the second-busiest in-office month since the pandemic, just slightly behind October 2023 (October and July 2024 both had 22 days). So while January and February’s declining numbers hinted at a stalled market, March’s uptick suggests that lower office attendance earlier in the year may have been due to temporary factors like weather – and that the RTO may still be gaining momentum.
Diving into the data for eleven major business hubs nationwide shows New York and Miami once again at the head of the office recovery pack. Visits to NYC office buildings in March 2025 were just 11.4% below pre-pandemic (March 2019) levels – while Miami trailed by 17.3%. Meanwhile, Atlanta (-29.3%), Washington, D.C. (-30.6%), Dallas (-30.7%), and Houston (-31.0%) all outperformed the nationwide average of -32.2%. San Francisco tied in last place with Chicago, with visits 44.6% below 2019 levels.
Turning to year-over-year (YoY) data, ten of the eleven analyzed cities experienced YoY office visit growth – led by Boston, with a 10.2% uptick. Washington, D.C. also recorded strong YoY gains (9.8%) – while San Francisco continued its recent positive momentum with a 9.6% increase. Los Angeles was the only city to see a minor (-2.2%) YoY visit lag – perhaps lingering fallout from the wildfires earlier this year.
Overall, the Placer.ai Office Index points to a renewed upswing in RTO momentum, likely driven by increasingly strict mandates from governments and corporations. Though persistent post-pandemic office visit gaps point to the continued prevalence of hybrid work, March’s noticeable uptick suggests that offices may be poised to make further gains in the coming months.
For more data-driven CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
With Q1 2025 just under our belts, we dove into the data to see how quick-service and fast-casual restaurants (QSRs) fared in the year’s early months. Which chains managed to weather the headwinds – both fiscal and meteorological – that have weighed on consumer traffic in recent months? And which brands emerged as top performers?
We dove into the data to find out.
QSRs faced a challenging environment in the first part of 2025, as harsh winter weather, economic uncertainty, and heightened value competition from fast-casual chains, full-service restaurants (Chili’s, anyone?), and even grocery stores drove visits down. Overall, QSR foot traffic declined by 1.6% year over year (YoY) in Q1, with much of the drop occurring in February – when a polar vortex and the comparison to a leap-year February 2024 led to a traffic dip. By March, however, visits began to stabilize, and the segment finished out the month with foot traffic levels essentially flat YoY (-0.3%).
Still, some QSRs stood out. Rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers, for example, saw YoY gains in both overall visits and average visits per location (12.3% and 3.7%, respectively). Known for quick, quality fare – the chain’s sauces have even inspired viral tik-tok videos – Raising Cane’s fleet growth is clearly meeting robust demand.
Taco Bell also emerged as a Q1 leader, with quarterly visits rising 3.7% YoY. The brand doubled down on value with its expanded selection of Luxe Cravings Boxes. And the tex-mex giant’s limited-time Crunchwrap Slider offering – launched in early 2025 to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the Crunchwrap Supreme – generated plenty of buzz.
Meanwhile, McDonald’s, which launched its new McValue menu in January 2025, narrowed its visit gap to 1.0% in March – an encouraging sign as the year gets into full swing.
Fast-casual fared somewhat better, ending Q1 2025 with flat YoY visits (+0.0%). And though the segment mirrored QSR’s monthly pattern of gains in January, a dip in February, and stabilization in March, several major players posted positive Q1 results – including Chipotle (+4.6%), Panda Express (+3.8%), Jersey Mike’s Subs (+3.1%) and Qdoba Mexican Grill (+1.5%). While fleet expansion contributed to some of these increases, menu innovation – particularly well-chosen chicken and shrimp-focused limited-time offerings – likely also played a role.
In addition to these major chains, several smaller fast-casual brands enjoyed outsized visit performance in early 2025, driven by rapid expansion meeting strong demand. Dave’s Hot Chicken, capitalizing on consumers’ ongoing enthusiasm for chicken dishes, logged a remarkable 59.3% YoY visit surge in Q1 2025, and an 11.6% jump in average visits per location. Health-forward chains CAVA and sweetgreen also grew their footprints – and audiences – likely supported by the return-to-office trend and continued interest in wholesome, convenient dining options.
All told, QSR and fast-casual brands held their own in Q1 2025 – with some brands standing out through strategic value offerings, menu innovation, and expansion. How will QSRs and fast-casual chains continue to fare as 2025 wears on?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining analyses to find out.
About the Placer.ai Mall Index: The Placer.ai Mall Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
Mall visits largely rebounded in March following their February drop. Traffic to indoor malls grew 1.8% year-over-year while open-air shopping centers and outlet malls saw their YoY visit gaps narrow to 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively. The rebound may be driven by the slight increase in consumer confidence among younger consumers (under 35 years old) and consumers from households earning over $125K a year – since affluent households are overrepresented in the trade areas of all three mall formats.
Indoor malls’ March YoY visit growth is the latest manifestation of the format’s strength. Between Q2 2023 and Q1 2024, open-air shopping centers led the shopping center space as this format consistently outperformed the other two mall types on a YoY visit basis. But over the past year, indoor malls have led the pack, with YoY visit trends to indoor malls consistently stronger than visitation metrics for the other two formats.
Some of the strength of indoor malls could be attributed to a sort of “survival of the fittest.” Many indoor malls shuttered in recent years, so the malls that remain in operation – such as the top-tier malls in the Placer.ai Indoor Mall Index – may be receiving some of the traffic that may have previously gone to less successful malls. Indoor malls are likely also benefiting from a renewed demand for the indoor mall experience – which could explain the string of recent investments in class B malls – from Walmart’s purchase of the Monroeville mall to Simon’s redevelopment of the Smith Haven Mall.
March 2025 marked the five-year anniversary of the retail lockdowns. And although this past month marked an improvement in visitation trends on a YoY basis, zooming out in time reveals that the pandemic is still having a lingering impact on both the quantity and quality of mall visits across formats.
All three mall types received fewer, shorter visits in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2019, with outlet malls seeing the largest drop in both visit numbers and visit duration. Open-air shopping centers experienced the strongest recovery in terms of visit numbers – Q1 2025 traffic was just 2.0% lower than in Q1 2019 – while visit duration fell 4.4%. Indoor malls saw the strongest rebound in visit duration, with Q1 2025 visits only 2.9% shorter than pre-pandemic – but visit numbers were down 7.4%. So despite the resilience of open-air shopping centers and the recent visit gains of indoor malls, the shopping center industry still has a ways to go before visitation patterns return to pre-COVID levels across the board.
As the industry looks beyond the five-year mark, the future of malls will likely depend on adaptability. Operators who can balance digital integration, experiential offerings, and responding to shifting consumer preferences will be best positioned to thrive in a post-COVID retail environment.
While the positive March visit data offers a degree of optimism for the mall industry, it's crucial to acknowledge that the sector is still navigating the long-term effects of the pandemic, characterized by fewer and shorter visits compared to pre-2020. At the same time, the recent success of indoor malls suggests a potential shift in consumer preferences or a concentration of traffic in stronger locations, highlighting the ongoing evolution of the retail landscape. Moving forward, the resilience and future success of malls will likely hinge on their ability to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and integrate innovative strategies that enhance the overall shopping experience.
Consumers are as interested as ever in heath-conscious eating, and many are turning to protein-packed diets to meet their fitness and wellness goals. We took a closer look at two retailers making a name for themselves in the high-protein, health-centric food space – Wild Fork Foods and Clean Eatz.
Wild Fork Foods is a paradise for meat and seafood lovers. The chain, which boasts nearly 60 locations nationwide, is at once a grocer, specialty products purveyor, and prepared foods destination. While much of Wild Fork’s product selection is frozen-meat-centric, the chain also offers a robust array of prepared foods.
And consumers seem to be resonating with the brands’ offerings – foot traffic to Wild Fork Foods consistently outpaced overall grocery visits, with YoY visits 33.8% higher in February 2025 than in February 2024, while overall grocery visits dropped by 1.7%. While some of this visit growth can be attributed to an increase in locations, Wild Fork’s strong performance bodes well for the brand.
Clean Eatz takes a different approach with its product offerings. While the chain boasts an on-site cafe, its real strength lies in its prepared meals and meal kits, which can be ordered individually or as part of full meal plans for the week. Each plan includes detailed nutrition information, making the chain an ideal option for those looking to take their diet to the next level.
This health-centric approach seems to be resonating with visitors, with Clean Eatz foot traffic outperforming the fast-casual restaurant segment in all months analyzed. And like Wild Fork, Clean Eatz has expanded over the past year, opening 14 locations between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024.
While Wild Fork and Clean Eatz share similarities in foot traffic trends and expansion efforts, a closer look at visitor demographics reveals key differences that highlight their respective strengths.
Compared to Wild Fork, Clean Eatz receives more of its traffic during the weekday – 77.3% of Clean Eatz’ visits take place on Monday through Friday, in contrast to Wild Fork’s 62.6%. Similarly, a higher share of Clean Eatz visitors visit the chain on their way to or from work – 14.9% and 10.0%, respectively – compared to Wild Fork’s 7.8% and 4.8%.
This suggests that Clean Eatz has become a convenient meal option for busy weekdays, while Wild Fork primarily attracts shoppers making planned stock-up trips.
Examining demographic data reveals additional distinctions between Wild Fork and Clean Eatz’ customers beyond their shopping preferences. While both chains draw visitors from trade areas with relatively high median household incomes (HHI), Wild Fork’s captured market skews wealthier, with a median HHI of $106.3K, compared to $83.9K for Clean Eatz.
Wild Fork’s trade area also includes significantly more "Near-Urban Diverse Families" – middle-class households living in or near cities – while Clean Eatz thrived with suburban audiences, capturing a higher share of the "Blue Collar Suburbs" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment.
These differences highlight that there is plenty of room within the prepared foods segment for a wide range of concepts. By aligning their offerings with customer preferences – perhaps by expanding into suburban markets or focusing on premium selections – retailers can carve out their own space and thrive.
Wild Fork and Clean Eatz are making names for themselves in the prepared food and gourmet grocery spaces. By tailoring their offerings to different consumer preferences, they’ve proven that multiple concepts can thrive within the high-protein food segment.
Will the space continue to evolve? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Eatertainment concepts have grown in popularity as consumers continue to prioritize experiences. We dove into the latest location intelligence for one of the leaders in the space – Dave & Buster’s – to explore the consumer behavior and demographics behind its foot traffic growth.
Throughout the first three quarters of 2024, visits to Dave & Buster’s increased year-over-year (YoY), likely due to an emphasis on remodels aimed at improving the entertainment and dining experience, as well as the brand’s continued expansion. And though the chain experienced a moderate visit gap in Q4 2024, it finished out the year with an overall 3.0% YoY increase in visits. Visits to the chain in 2024 were also up 4.7% when compared to 2019 (pre-pandemic) – an impressive showing given the headwinds that have plagued the wider full-service restaurant space in recent years.
Although visits to Dave & Buster’s have lagged YoY most weeks in 2025 so far, this may have more to do with severe weather experienced in large parts of the country than with a sustained decrease in demand for the chain. Indeed, during the week of March 17th, 2025, visits increased YoY, highlighting the popularity of March Madness and Dave & Buster’s spring break promotions – and perhaps signaling a positive start to the chain’s busy spring season.
In 2024, Friday through Sunday accounted for a large share of Dave & Buster’s visits (62.7%), but compared to 2023, the days with the greatest increases in foot traffic were Monday (8.2%), Tuesday (8.0%), Thursday (6.8%), and Wednesday (5.3%). Meanwhile, Friday and Saturday traffic increased by only 1.8% and 1.0% respectively, and Sunday visits were flat YoY. So although the chain received a majority of its visits on weekends (Friday-Sunday), most of its YoY visit growth came from weekday visits.
This validates Dave & Buster’s promotional strategy of incentivizing weekday visits when locations can leverage available capacity.
Dave & Buster’s focus on weekday promotions has likely resonated particularly well with its core audience – consumers with median household incomes (HHIs) slightly below the nationwide baseline. For many middle-income Americans, the chance to indulge without overspending is crucial in a time of rising prices and economic uncertainty, and Dave & Buster’s has effectively met their needs with its discounted midweek food, drinks, and gameplay options.
But in addition to young singles and cost-conscious families (such as the “Family Union” segment, encompassing middle-income, middle-aged families in blue-collar occupations), the brand also appeals to several more affluent consumer segments. In 2024, Dave & Buster’s captured market featured higher-than-average shares of both the “Suburban Style” and “Flourishing Families” segments, which include different groups of affluent, middle-aged couples and families. This broad appeal across a diverse range of consumer groups positions the brand on solid footing as it continues to navigate a challenging economic environment.
Dave & Buster's has seen increased customer traffic, likely due to strategic renovations and an expanded footprint. While weekend visits remain dominant, weekday growth indicates successful promotional efforts that resonate with diverse consumer groups.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit Placer.ai.
Forget water, soda, or tea – coffee reigns supreme in the United States. A recent study reveals that coffee surpasses even water as the nation's most consumed beverage. This continued demand is fueling a robust coffee shop sector that continues to thrive despite economic headwinds.
We took a closer look at industry-wide trends to understand how the segment is performing.
The coffee segment has seen consistent visit growth over the past few years, demonstrating remarkable resilience – a trend fueled by steady consumer demand. Analyzing the baseline change in quarterly visits from Q1 2019 underscores this growth – and also reveals distinct seasonal patterns.
Visits to coffee shops plummeted during the pandemic, as consumers hunkered down at home and many independent coffee shops went out of business – but swiftly rebounded as consumers sought affordable luxuries and a sense of normalcy. Between 2021 and early 2024, coffee foot traffic continued to climb, as chains from Starbucks to Dutch Bros expanded their footprints. The visit growth followed a fairly predictable seasonal rhythm, slowing in the first quarter of the year and peaking in Q4. But though visits in Q4 2024 were slightly higher YoY, they remained relatively flat compared to Q2 and Q3 2024, possibly signaling that the industry may be reaching a plateau.
Looking at the data by region reveals that coffee shop visit growth has been widespread throughout the country, with most CBSAs experiencing growth relative to 2023.
Some areas – like parts of the Midwest and South – experienced especially pronounced growth, suggesting heightened interest in coffee chains in these regions. Coffee visit growth in the South in particular may be partially a reflection of greater market penetration following chain expansions and inflows of domestic migration over the past several years. And while some areas of the country saw YoY declines, most CBSAs saw continued growth, highlighting the consistent appeal of coffee chains across a wide range of markets.
There are hundreds of coffee shops nationwide catering to every kind of coffee drinker – from chains with 2-3 locations specializing in artisanal blends to major players like Starbucks and Dunkin'. And diving into the visit split between small, mid-sized, and large coffee chains shows that mid-sized coffee chains – many of which are drive-thru focused – are gradually claiming a greater share of the market.
Between 2019 and 2024, the share of visitors to mid-sized coffee chains grew from 10.8% to 17.6%. Some of this growth can be attributed to Dutch Bros’ ascendance – but other fast-growing coffee chains like BIGGBY Coffee are contributing to this growth.
Smaller coffee chains also saw their visit share increase, albeit more modestly, from 3.2% in 2019 to 4.4% in 2024. This trend suggests that, while Starbucks and Dunkin' continue to dominate, there remains plenty of room – and interest – for smaller, independent chains to thrive.
Indeed, diving into visitor behavior at small, mid-sized, and large chains highlights the distinct niches these segments effectively fill. Between 2023 and 2024, short visits (<10 minutes) increased more than longer visits at mid-sized and large chains, while large chains actually saw a drop in longer visits, likely a result of increased emphasis on drive-thru and mobile ordering.
Meanwhile small chains saw a greater YoY increase in long visits (+13.4%) than in short ones (+9.1%), suggesting that smaller coffee shops are increasingly filling the niche of a relaxed, destination-oriented experience.
These shifts highlight the different needs that coffee shops can fill within a community, with some offering speed and convenience, while others can meet the desire for a relaxed and personalized coffee experience.
The success of the overall coffee segment highlights the continued consumer demand for affordable luxuries even as economic uncertainty persists, and the benefits of a diverse market that accommodates different visitor needs.
Will the coffee segment continue to thrive into 2025? Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining insights.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.
Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Many stadiums host concerts and other shows in addition to regularly held sporting matches and can accommodate tens of thousands of spectators at once – creating massive retail, dining, and advertisement opportunities.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence metrics for some of the biggest stadiums across the country to reveal the commercial potential of these venues beyond simple ticketing revenue. Where do visitors of various stadiums like to shop? Do specific sporting and cultural events impact the nearby restaurant scene differently? How can stadium operators, local businesses, and advertisers tailor their offerings to a stadium’s particular audience and make the most of the stadium and the space throughout the year?
We take a closer look below.
The three major sports leagues – the National Basketball League (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Football League (NFL) – play at different points of the year, and the number of games each league holds during the season also varies.
MLB leads in game frequency, with each team playing 162 games during the regular season, which runs approximately from April through September. Basketball season is also around six months – roughly from mid-October to mid-April – but each NBA team plays only 82 games a season. And the NFL has both the shortest season – 18 weeks running from early September to early January (with the pre-season starting in August) – and the fewest number of matches per team. Understanding the monthly visitation patterns for the various types of stadiums can help advertisers, stadium operators, and other stakeholders ensure that they are leveraging the full potential of the venue throughout the year.
Unsurprisingly, the sports arenas serving the different leagues see visit spikes during their leagues’ respective season. But comparing visit numbers throughout the year to the average monthly visit numbers for each category in 2023 reveals that the relative visit increases and decreases during the on- and off-season vary for each type of stadium.
MLB stadiums display the steadiest visit strength during the on-season – perhaps due to MLB’s packed game schedule. MLB tickets also tend to be relatively affordable compared to tickets to pro football or basketball matches, which may also contribute to MLB’s consistently strong visit numbers throughout the season. During the MLB off-season, baseball fields – which tend to be uncovered – are relatively empty.
The seasonal visit spike to NBA arenas is less steady. The beginning and end of the season see strong peaks, and visits slow down slightly during the mid-season months of January and February. Visits then drop during the off-season spring and summer, but the off-season visit dip is not as low as it is for MLB fields – perhaps because the NBA arenas’ indoor nature make them suitable locations for concerts and other non-basketball events.
Meanwhile, NFL stadiums see the least dramatic drop in visits during the NFL off-season, as these venues’ enormous size also make them the ideal location for concerts and other cultural events that draw large crowds. These arenas’ strong almost year-round visitation numbers mean that sponsors and advertisers looking to expand beyond sports fans to reach a diverse audience may have the most success with these venues.
Although MLB offers the most budget-friendly outing, combining STI: Popstats demographic metrics with trade area data reveals that MLB stadium visitors reside in higher-income areas when compared with visitors to NBA or NFL stadiums.
Baseball fans tend to be older than fans of the other sports, which could partially explain MLB stadium visitors’ higher household income (HHI). The combination of lower ticket prices, higher median HHI among fans, and many games per season offers baseball stadiums significant opportunities to engage effectively with their fan bases.
But while NBA and NFL stadium attendees may not come from as high-income areas as do MLB stadium visitors, fans of live basketball and football still reside in trade areas with a higher HHI compared to the nationwide median. So by leveraging stadium space, advertisers and other stakeholders can reach tens of thousands of relatively high-income consumers easily and effectively.
Sports fans are known to be passionate, engaged, and willing to spend money on their team – but stadium visitors also shop for non-sports related goods and services. Retailers and advertisers can draw on location analytics to uncover the consumer preferences of stadium visitors and tailor campaigns, sponsorships, and collaborations accordingly.
Visitation data to the top five most visited MLB stadiums during 2023 showed differences between the apparel and sporting goods shopping preferences of the various stadiums’ attendees. While 39.4% of visitors to Truist Park also visited DICK’s in 2023, only 30.8% of Yankee Stadium visitors stopped by the sporting goods retailer in the same period. Similarly, while 29.9% of visitors to Yankee Stadium frequented Kohl’s, that percentage jumped to 47.3% for Busch Stadium visitors.
Harnessing location intelligence to see the consumer preferences of a stadium’s visitor base can help retailers, stadium operators, and even team managers choose partnerships and merchandising agreements that will yield the most effective results.
Sports and snacks go hand in hand – what would a baseball game be without a hot dog or peanuts? But while every stadium likely provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. And by leveraging location analytics to gain visibility into stadium-goers dining habits, stadium operators and local food businesses can understand how to best serve each arena’s audience.
Mapping where stadium visitors dine before and after games can help stakeholders in the stadium industry reach more fans.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
All of the stadiums analyzed exhibited unique visitor dining tastes, a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
Zooming in to look at consumer behavior around individual events reveals further variability in dining preferences even among visitors to the same stadium, with different types of events driving distinct dining behaviors.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is home to the Arizona Cardinals. The stadium hosted the 2023 Super Bowl, but the NFL stadium also acts as a concert venue for acts ranging from Taylor Swift to Metallica. And location intelligence reveals that the dining preferences of stadium visitors vary based on the events held at the venue.
During the Super Bowl, sports bars such as Yard House and Buffalo Wild Wings saw the largest increase in visits compared to the chains’ daily average. A month later, attendees at Taylor Swift's concert gave fried-chicken leader Raising Cane’s a significant boost.
Local restaurants can leverage location analytics to see what types of events are popular with their visitor base and craft collaborations and advertising campaigns that resonate effectively with their patrons.
Sports stadiums and arenas are not just spaces for sports and music enthusiasts to gather; they also offer significant commercial opportunities for the surrounding communities. Stadium operators and local businesses can fine-tune their offerings by utilizing location analytics to better connect with their visitor bases and uncover new retail opportunities.
