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Dave’s Hot Chicken and Dutch Bros represent two stages of competitive maturity in the dining industry. Dave’s, the rookie powerhouse, is still in its breakout phase – driven by speed, excitement, and growth at any cost. Dutch Bros, on the other hand, is the seasoned veteran entering a more disciplined period of its career, focused on refinement, endurance, and strategic precision.
A snapshot of nationwide foot traffic data clearly shows the difference between the two brands. Between January and October 2025, Dave’s Hot Chicken recorded a remarkable 59.3% increase in total visits, driven by an aggressive pace of new openings. And the average number of visits to each individual store also rose 4.8%, signaling robust and growing demand.
Dutch Bros, meanwhile, experienced a more measured 13.1% growth in total visits, with visits per location holding steady at 0.2%. This stability suggests that while new units continue to perform, many established markets are reaching maturity – a hallmark of a seasoned brand transitioning from rapid expansion to optimization.
The contrast between the two brands becomes even more striking when analyzing major markets. While Dutch Bros’ visit growth reflects slower gains tied to market maturity, Dave’s is posting explosive per-location surges in major DMAs like Chicago (+18.4%), Orlando (+15.5%), and Houston (+15.0%). It’s the classic rookie hot streak – fast, fearless, and full of momentum.
Dutch Bros is now a massive operation with 1,080 locations in 24 states as of September 2025. Though much of the company's early growth was achieved through a franchise system, Dutch Bros stopped selling franchises to operators who didn’t grow up in the company in 2008 – and stopped franchising completely in 2017 to maintain consistency and preserve its distinctive brand and culture.
Today, only about 30% of Dutch Bros locations are franchise-operated. And as illustrated by the map below, while new stores are fueling growth, older markets – particularly in the Pacific Northwest – are reaching maturity. Dutch Bros is no longer just sprinting to open new stores; it’s managing endurance and refining its playbook – optimizing store placement, leveraging data analytics, and deepening engagement through its digital rewards program. This maturity mirrors what Starbucks went through two decades ago: fewer easy wins, but a much higher floor for long-term performance.
Then there’s Dave’s Hot Chicken – fast, fearless, and still in its hyper-growth phase. From a parking-lot pop-up in 2017 to around 300 locations today, Dave’s is scaling at a speed rarely seen in food service.
Like Dutch Bros in its early days, Dave’s still embraces a franchise-first approach. Backed by Roark Capital and celebrity investors including Drake, the brand is leveraging multi-unit operators to plant flags nationwide and abroad. The company aims to open 150 new locations a year and recently signed an 180-unit European deal with Azzurri Group – proof that the rookie’s winning streak is turning into a global phenomenon.
And the map below highlights how Dave’s Hot Chicken is playing offense with no signs of slowing down. The brand’s franchise-first model allows for rapid scaling with lower capital risk, while Roark Capital’s involvement brings big-league operational infrastructure. But like any breakout player, the challenge will be endurance – ensuring franchisees maintain consistency and profitability as the system races toward 1,000+ units.
For operators and investors, the Dutch Bros/Dave’s contrast is a roadmap to growth sequencing. Early-stage brands can learn from Dave’s: Invest in buzz, speed, and market saturation while consumer curiosity is high. Maturing chains, on the other hand, can look to Dutch Bros as proof that disciplined growth, data-led decisions, and cultural integrity are what sustain relevance once expansion slows.
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Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
How is lululemon performing in a challenging retail environment, and what does Black Friday data suggest about the holiday shopping season already under way? We dove into the data to find out.
Visits to lululemon were up 4.2% year over year (YoY) in Q3 2025 – a promising sign ahead of the holidays. And though monthly same-store visits trended slightly negative YoY, same-store traffic grew in October – a positive sign ahead of a critical holiday season.
Looking back at previous holiday seasons provides further room for optimism for lululemon. The retailer reliably sees late-year traffic spikes – on Black Friday and especially at the end of December, when its End-of-Year sale and Boxing Day discounts pull in last-minute and bargain-seeking shoppers.
Black Friday 2025 data shows that luluemon is already off to a strong start, with visits surpassing even last year's strong performance – the chain experienced a 350.8% increase in visits compared to its January to September 2025 daily visit average.
Looking ahead, this early momentum positions lululemon to reclaim share during what many retailers expect to be a tighter holiday season. Given macroeconomic headwinds and shifting consumer sentiment, early wins like this may be critical – strong traffic now could translate into outsized holiday-season revenue, reinforce customer loyalty, and help offset any softening in post-Black-Friday demand.
Lululemon is driving increased foot traffic despite visit softness earlier in the year and persistent consumer headwinds. With the all-important holiday season fast-approaching, will the chain continue to drive visit growth?
For more data-driven retail insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Prior to Black Friday, mall visits across the three formats (indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls) were running comfortably ahead of 2024 levels. But during the week of Black Friday 2025, visits to indoor malls and open-air centers flattened or even dropped year over year – suggesting that many shoppers had moved their trips to earlier in November, when mall retailers had begun rolling out early Black Friday promotions.
A closer look at daily traffic across the Black Friday weekend reveals how this shift played out. Friday performed well across all formats, with indoor mall visits rising 3.1% year over year, open-air centers up 1.7%, and outlet malls essentially flat but still slightly positive. But Saturday and Sunday traffic declined YoY, weighing down on Friday's gains and pulling the whole week into negative YoY territory.
So Friday retained its status as the high-impact day, but the rest of the weekend showed signs of promotional fatigue – or simply that shoppers had already taken advantage of the deals they wanted.
If visit counts capture one dimension of consumer behavior, dwell time reveals another. The share of visits lasting more than an hour declined across all mall formats relative to last year, indicating a more mission-driven shopper – someone who arrives with a plan, moves efficiently, and heads on to the next task. The trend may also hint at a strategic shift: some consumers may have used earlier November visits to scout specific items or sizes, allowing them to streamline their Black Friday trips and focus on securing the best deals both inside and outside the mall.
Most importantly, a broader look at year-over-year monthly visits shows that the early surge in November traffic more than offset the softness during Black Friday week, ultimately providing November 2025 with an overall YoY traffic boost. This pattern suggests that the holiday season’s momentum is becoming less dependent on a single weekend and increasingly shaped by how effectively retailers engage shoppers throughout the month – and the longer holiday season as a whole.
Black Friday mall data suggests that consumers are still engaging deeply with physical retail, yet the cadence of that engagement is evolving. They are starting earlier, concentrating their in-person activity in shorter bursts, and reserving their longest visits for fewer occasions. For retailers, this dynamic underscores the importance of capturing Friday’s surge, aligning promotions with earlier November interest, and offering experiences compelling enough to draw shoppers back later in the weekend. For landlords, the data highlights opportunities to support purposeful shopping with frictionless navigation, efficient operations, and programming that encourages dwell at moments when the natural impulse may be to move quickly.
As December data comes into view – from Super Saturday to the final week before Christmas – the key question will be whether these patterns continue or whether late-season urgency reshapes the curve once again. For now, the early read is clear: shoppers are showing up, but on their own terms, and malls that adapt to this more intentional consumer are positioned to capture the strongest returns.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Black Friday 2025 offered an early look at how consumers are approaching a holiday season defined by tighter budgets and more deliberate spending. Foot traffic trends across regions and retail categories show that while the traditional Black Friday playbook still generates major surges for core retail segments, value-oriented formats and convenient, low-cost treats are playing a larger role in shaping how and where shoppers decide to spend. The data points to a consumer who is highly selective: willing to pursue standout deals, but just as focused on stretching their dollars and fitting purchases into packed holiday routines.
The map below shows retail visits on Black Friday (November 28, 2025) compared to each DMA’s year-to-date daily average. Purple areas indicate DMAs where Black Friday traffic rose more than the national average increase of 53.0%, while yellow areas represent markets where the surge fell below that benchmark.
Once again, the Midwest led the country in in-person Black Friday activity, far outpacing major coastal metros. The region’s strong turnout reflects how sharply Midwestern shoppers respond to clear, compelling value. For retailers and dining brands hoping to grow their footprint in the region, the takeaway is straightforward: transparent pricing, well-structured promotions, and messaging that reinforces everyday value can go a long way in capturing visits.
Several value-focused categories – thrift stores, wholesale clubs, off-price retailers, and discount & dollar stores – posted year-over-year (YoY) visit gains, even though their increases relative to typical daily traffic were relatively modest. This YoY growth on a day defined by aggressive discount-hunting suggests that these formats are becoming meaningful Black Friday destinations – and could indicate that more consumers are motivated by the final price they pay rather than the size of the advertised markdown.
Still, the data also makes clear that traditional Black Friday winners can draw crowds. Mid-tier department stores, beauty, sporting goods, and electronics all saw outsized visit spikes relative to their YTD averages, with department stores more than doubling typical weekend traffic.
Together, the data paints a picture of a holiday season defined by careful tradeoffs: Even amid macroeconomic pressure, mid-tier retailers can still draw high-intent shoppers – especially if offering the right discount. At the same time, value-focused formats are gaining traction among consumers watching their budgets more closely.
Consumers’ in-store behavior over Black Friday also reflected a strong focus on value. The share of longer visits (30+ minutes) increased across all four Black Friday mainstays – mid-tier department stores, beauty & self care, sporting goods, and electronics – reflecting a consumer base willing to invest more time to secure the right deal. Many shoppers likely used in-store browsing as a strategy to compare options, verify value, and assemble baskets made up of multiple smaller-ticket items rather than focusing their spend on a single high-priced purchase. The uptick in extended visits suggests that Black Friday is becoming as much about maximizing savings as it is about fulfilling gift lists – an approach aligned with shoppers’ heightened price sensitivity and the growing emphasis on strategic, mission-driven store trips.
Overall, the rise in longer visits also underscores that value – not just discounts – shaped the in-store experience this year, prompting consumers to slow down, evaluate options, and leave with fuller baskets.
Coffee chains were one of Black Friday’s most unexpected standouts, with visits to drive-thru forward formats in particular (Dutch Bros, 7 Brew Coffee, and Scooter's Coffee) surging 47.5% to 52.6% higher than their YTD daily average. These spikes show how strongly convenient, low-ticket beverages resonate on a day otherwise dominated by big purchases and aggressive deal-hunting.
The Black Friday visit boosts also reveal that, even as budgets tighten, consumers continue to make space for small, affordable indulgences – especially those that fit naturally into a day of errands and shopping. For coffee chains, this underscores the value of speed, seamless access, and timely seasonal offerings. For retailers, it highlights the role food-and-beverage stops play in the broader holiday journey, creating opportunities for cross-promotion and helping stabilize traffic around peak shopping windows.
As the holiday season continues, the trends emerging from Black Friday suggest retailers should prepare for a consumer defined by cautious but purposeful spending. Regions that respond most strongly to value, categories anchored in everyday affordability, and concepts that offer convenience and small indulgences all appear well positioned to capture incremental holiday visits. Retailers that adapt with localized value messaging, balanced promotional strategies, and partnerships or offerings that align with shoppers’ broader journeys stand to benefit as consumers prioritize both savings and ease.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Home-cooked meals may anchor the holidays, yet dining out remains a key part of the seasonal rhythm. Examining how visits trended last year helps illuminate which segments could gain the most traction this December and where holiday dining demand may concentrate.
While the holiday season is a major period for retail, some dining segments also experience a notable lift. Visits to the coffee category outperformed their 2024 weekly average in November, likely boosted by the appeal of leading chains' holiday menu and the popularity of Starbucks' Red Cup Day. The category saw another surge the week before Christmas, as shoppers sought out caffeine to power through last-minute errands.
Full-service restaurants tend to see visitation build towards the end of the holiday season – visits were 7.1% higher than average the week of December 16th, 2024, and remained elevated during the week of Christmas, even as other dining categories experienced slight dips. This likely reflects the shift from workday and errand-driven routines to family gatherings, out-of-town guests, and special-occasion meals. Meanwhile, categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to soften as commuting, shopping, and other everyday behaviors pause for the holiday.
Meanwhile, fast-casual and quick-service segments trended lower during holidays than they did during the rest of the year – though the week before Christmas bucked the trend, likely lifted by shoppers stopping for quick meals amid last-minute errands.
Within full-service dining, upscale and fine-dining concepts were the clear standouts of the season. The segment saw steady gains throughout December, culminating in a 33.7% jump the week of December 16th and remaining elevated into Christmas week – a pattern likely supported by companies and large groups booking higher-end restaurants for end-of-year celebrations.
Breakfast-first chains, by contrast, showed softer performance for most of the period and only saw meaningful lifts during family-focused holiday weeks, when out-of-town visitors and holiday traditions drove more morning and brunch outings.
Casual dining and eatertainment concepts also experienced holiday-related bumps, but in distinct ways. Casual dining saw a brief boost the week of November 11th, likely tied to Veterans Day promotions, and then a more meaningful lift the week before Christmas as consumers grabbed convenient meals while running last-minute errands. Eatertainment venues, on the other hand, peaked during Christmas week, benefiting from families seeking activity-based outings once holiday gatherings were underway. While neither category matched the sustained strength of upscale dining, each captured demand consistent with the role they play in the holiday dining cycle.
Looking ahead to this year’s holiday season, the year-over-year dining patterns point to a dining landscape led once again by upscale and fine dining. This segment is the only one showing consistent momentum heading into November, with steady gains that suggest another strong December for premium full-service concepts.
The rest of the full-service category is entering the season on more uneven footing. Breakfast-first chains, eatertainment venues, and casual dining brands are all tracking close to or below last year’s levels, with several weeks of declines and only brief periods of improvement. While the weeks of November 10th and 17th offer early signs of stabilization for some segments, the broader picture remains mixed.
Still, holiday dining behaviors typically shift sharply as Thanksgiving, Christmas travel, and family gatherings come into focus. If past patterns hold, all four segments may see meaningful late-season lifts – but upscale dining is the category best positioned to outperform as the holidays accelerate.
Upscale and fine dining, coffee, and breakfast-first chains demonstrated clear seasonal lifts last year. As December approaches, will these patterns re-emerge, or will consumer caution lead to wider pull-backs among the dining segment?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Thanksgiving brought a healthy rise in movie theater traffic while still trailing 2024’s exceptional highs. The gap points to a growing reality in the theatrical space: In 2025, audiences show up strongest when franchises – and preferably, multiple franchises at once – lead the way.
Thanksgiving reliably drives a surge in theater visits, as families seek shared holiday activities and studios lean into the demand by releasing family-friendly blockbusters. This year was no different, when the release of Wicked: For Good on November 21st and Zootopia 2 on November 26th – both installments in well-established franchises – helped fuel a holiday bump. Movie theater visits climbed 218% higher than the YTD average for a typical Wednesday on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, while Black Friday traffic rose 103.2% above the average Friday so far in 2025.
Still, movie theater traffic fell significantly short of 2024 levels, dropping 27.9% on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and 31.7% on Black Friday. These gaps underscore just how extraordinary last year’s slate was, when Wicked and Gladiator II opened the Friday before Thanksgiving, followed by Moana 2 the next Wednesday. These franchise titles – and, in the case of Wicked, a film backed by a major existing IP – produced unusually large attendance spikes throughout the 2024 holiday window.
Analyzing year-to-date traffic patterns at movie theaters reinforces just how dependent theaters have become on major franchise installments. Throughout 2025, nearly every pronounced traffic peak aligns with a franchise launch – from Captain America: Brave New World on Valentine’s Day to Minecraft in April, Jurassic World: Rebirth and Superman in July, and The Conjuring: Last Rites in September.
These weekends routinely spiked movie traffic over the release weekend – and the strongest releases produced multi-week periods of elevated visitation. As shown in the chart below, titles like Minecraft, Jurassic World, and the latest Mission: Impossible kept both weekday and weekend traffic meaningfully higher for two to four weeks – often until the next major blockbuster arrived.
The data suggests that moviegoing has shifted from a routine outing to an event-driven decision. Audiences aren’t heading to theaters just for the experience anymore – they go when a specific film feels worth the trip, typically a sequel or another piece of well-known IP. As a result, theaters no longer see steady week-to-week demand, though blockbusters can still drive weeks of elevated traffic.
As the holiday season continues, theaters have an opportunity to extend the strong, IP-driven momentum that has shaped 2025 so far. December brings a lineup of major sequels and family-friendly releases – including Avatar: Fire and Ash and The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, both arriving the Friday before Christmas. These titles are poised to draw large holiday audiences and, if recent patterns hold, generate multi-week lifts that support not only theaters but the broader mix of surrounding businesses.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.
