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Article
How Economic Realities Are Redefining Vegas Tourism
Las Vegas visits were down in Q1/Q2 2025. The Strip saw the steepest declines. Meanwhile, the median HHI of visitors is rising - especially in the Strip – suggesting increased travel costs are deterring budget-conscious tourists. 
Bracha Arnold & Lila Margalit
Aug 29, 2025
4 minutes

Las Vegas has long been a tourism mecca, attracting domestic and international travelers eager to partake of the city’s iconic offerings. However, as economic uncertainty weighs heavily on many would-be vacationers' minds, visits to the city have slowed. We examined H1 2025 data for the city and its legendary Las Vegas Strip (just outside the city limits) to see how domestic tourism slowdowns are impacting the city.

Slowing Travel Nationwide – and in Vegas

Las Vegas, with its iconic vistas, casinos, entertainment options, and convention centers, has long been a favorite domestic tourism destination. But travel patterns have slowed nationwide, and the downturn hasn’t spared the Entertainment Capital of the World. Foot traffic data for out-of-market domestic visitors to Vegas – defined here as those coming from at least 50 miles away – shows a notable decline in tourist visits to the city.  

Visits to the city of Las Vegas have dropped consistently since the pandemic, hitting a low in Q1 2025 when out-of-market traffic fell 4.0% YoY. The Las Vegas Strip, which hosts most of the area’s marquee attractions and drives substantial revenue, fared even worse with a 10.6% YoY decline in Q1. 

Still, visits to both the city and the Strip picked up somewhat in Las Vegas’ traditionally stronger Q2, a positive sign for the city and perhaps an indication of better things to come. 

Vegas High Rollers

Economic uncertainties are likely one of the main reasons for the slowing visits to Las Vegas. And analyzing median household income (HHI) data for the areas supplying out-of-market visitors to the city highlights the economic pressures at play. 

In Q2 2019, both the city of Las Vegas and the Strip drew visitors from areas with median HHIs of about $83.0K, with only a slight gap in favor of the Strip. But since then, median HHI trends have shifted, with Las Vegas seeing a subtle but steady rise in median HHI to $88.8K, and the Strip seeing a much more substantial increase to $99.4K. 

The steeper climb in median HHI for the Strip’s visits, coupled with its larger visit gaps, suggests that as prices for tourist attractions climb, more budget-conscious visitors may be opting to explore beyond the Strip. Hotel and casino operators, seeing spending on leisure activities soften, are now offering steep discounts to attract additional travel. For local stakeholders, this poses both opportunities and potential downsides: While higher-income visitors may spend more, opening up ample opportunities for operators and retailers, middle-income-focused properties and storefronts face mounting risks. Developing “on-ramps” for value-conscious travelers will be critical to maintaining wide-ranging appeal and driving continued tourism growth.

What’s Next for Vegas?

The shifting profile of visitors presents Las Vegas with both challenges and opportunities. City leaders and industry stakeholders must juggle catering to a more affluent crowd while remaining accessible to budget-minded travelers. Ultimately, the city’s resilience will hinge on a balanced approach – welcoming high-rollers while ensuring that Las Vegas remains a destination for everyone.

Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven travel & leisure insights.

Article
Nordstrom Anniversary Sale: An Event that Continues to Find Success Amid Reinvention
Nordstrom's Anniversary Sale was longer than in previous years, but daily visits during the event were up compared to 2023 & 2024 – highlighting the brand value and positive consumer perception that the retailer has successfully cultivated in recent years.
Elizabeth Lafontaine
Aug 28, 2025
5 minutes

Nordstrom Anniversary Sale Stands Out Within July’s Promotional Rush

July has become a heavy hitter in the retail calendar as retailers battle for consumers' attention and spending. Promotional activity during this month is incredibly high as the industry enters the back-to-school season and debut of pre-fall collections. However, one promotional event has long held the top spot in July, with its history pre-dating Prime Day and other retailer deal day events: The Nordstrom Anniversary Sale.

The Anniversary Sale’s premise is unique compared to other promotional events across the retail calendar; most items included in the event are exclusive to Nordstrom and typically the discounts are on new releases instead of previously released mark downs. The sale has become a signal of the changing of seasons as consumers prepare their fall wardrobes. Over the years, it has provided incredible insight into the psyche of the consumer and the impact of social media influencers on the retail industry. 

Changing Role of Influencers and Extended Timelines

The annual event has undergone some major changes over the last decade. Nordstrom was quick to embrace the power of social media influencers, and the Anniversary Sale gave influencers incredible opportunities to drive conversion from themselves and the retailer, and in return, receive high commissions. It wasn’t uncommon for user generated content to skyrocket with influencers posting hauls of their Anniversary Sale finds and deals. However, the commission structure has evolved over time, and the retailer has seemingly shifted its focus away from content creators as the primary driver of consumer engagement.

This year marked the longest public Anniversary Sale, which ran from July 12th through August 3rd. (Any consumer can shop at Nordstrom during the public Anniversary sale, but Nordstrom cardmembers usually have early access to the sale, and pre-sale lengths have fluctuated over the years). This year had 23 sale days, compared to 21 in 2023 & 2024, 17 in 2019 and 2022, and 12 in 2021, which may have been impacted by pandemic induced supply chain issues. 

How Did the 2025 Nordstrom Anniversary Sale Compare to Previous Years?   

Looking at overall visitation for the event, traffic was up 17% compared to 2024 and 15% compared to 2023, but that does account for the two extra days of the sale. On a more comparable basis, the average visits per day of the 2025 Anniversary Sale were up 7% vs. 2024 and up 5% vs. 2023, respectively, highlighting that 2025 did bring a higher volume of average visitors per day, despite the longer sale period. But average visits per day during the sale were below 2019, 2021 and 2022 levels, when influencer marketing around the event was much higher than it is today. 

Still, Nordstrom has regained its footing with many consumers over the past year, and that combined with consumers' desire for value across retail may have contributed to this year’s higher volume of visits compared to the past few years.

Another interesting outcome from this year? The percentage of visits during the weekend was higher in 2025 than all previous years reviewed. The public sale did start on a Saturday this year, which could have had an impact, but it also indicates that consumers might have been looking to the sale as an event to plan their shopping around, instead of a quick stop off during the week. Beginning the sale on Saturday may have moved the needle to drum up shopper excitement and incentivize visitors to shop on the first day of the event.

Who Shopped the Nordstrom Anniversary Sale This Year? 

Consumers of all segments are increasing their appetite for value across the retail industry, and it appears that the Anniversary Sale was primed to welcome wealthy shoppers who wanted to score this year’s trends and designers at a lower price point. According to PersonaLive consumer segmentation, 2025 saw a higher distribution of visits from Ultra Wealthy Families & Wealth Suburban Families than the previous two sale events. There may have been fewer aspirational shoppers this year as well, concentrating visits with consumers who have higher levels of disposable income. 

There was also an increase in the share of visits by older consumer segments at the expense of younger shoppers, which is interesting considering potential differences in consumer sentiment between generations and less emphasis on marketing the sale through social media. 

Nordstrom Anniversary Sale Success Highlights Brand Strength

Overall, the success of this year’s Anniversary Sale from a visitation perspective is encouraging, as many retailers contend with rising prices and waning consumer demand for discretionary goods. The strong visitation trends during the early back-to-school period highlight the brand value and positive consumer perception that the retailer has successfully cultivated in recent years. Nordstrom has found the formula to engage and retain shoppers, and it’s no wonder that we selected it as a Ten Top Brand to Watch for 2025.

Retailers have to be more creative to drive consumer activity in-store for the remainder of the year, but exclusivity might just be the key to success as evidenced by the Anniversary Sale performance. 

To see up-to-date retail traffic trends, visit our free tools

Article
Manufacturing Visits Drop Post-Tariff Implementation
Following the August 7th tariff implementation, manufacturing visits experienced a significant drop, indicating that businesses are working through stockpiled inventory. This suggests a period of reassessment and adjustment in supply chain strategies.
Lila Margalit
Aug 28, 2025
1 minute

In June and July 2025, visits to Placer’s Industrial Manufacturing Composite Index grew 3.0% and 2.3% year over year (YoY), respectively, as supply chains raced against the clock to build inventory in advance of the new tariffs set to come into effect on August 7th. But as the deadline approached, YoY visits to these sites by employees and logistics partners began to decline, dropping to 4.2% YoY during the week of August 11th, 2025. 

The timing of this decline, occurring just days after tariff implementation, points to manufacturers potentially working through stockpiled inventory and reassessing supply chain strategies under the new cost structure. While it's still early to determine whether this represents a temporary recalibration or the beginning of a more sustained slowdown, the data suggests that the manufacturing sector is entering a period of adjustment as businesses adapt to the new tariff environment.

Article
Semi-Annual Sale Drives Visit Surge For Bath & Body Works 
Bath & Body Works (BBWI) leveraged its semi-annual sale to drive visit growth despite economic headwinds.
Bracha Arnold
Aug 27, 2025
1 minute

Bath & Body Works emerged as a surprise retail winner in February 2025’s Placer 100 roundup, when overall visits to the chain jumped by 13.7% YoY in conjunction with its Disney-themed fragrance release. And the chain is maintaining its relevance in the face of declining discretionary spending and tighter consumer budgets through a multi-pronged approach, including store expansions, a TikTok presence, and partnerships with influencers.

Still, traffic to the chain reflects the impact of softened discretionary spending. Although overall traffic increased 3.5% in Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024, thanks in part to the chain's strategic expansion, same-store visits for the quarter fell slightly, as seen in the chart below. But foot traffic rebounded dramatically in July, when its semi-annual sale sent same-store visits up by 12.7% and overall visits up by 17.5%, highlighting how compelling promotions – especially when consumer budgets are tight – can lead to foot traffic spikes.

Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights. 

Article
Ulta's Post-Target Future Looks Strong
Ulta (ULTA) drives Q2 2025 growth with new stores and a clear pivot away from Target. Discover how the brand's core business and customer base are set to fuel its next chapter.
Bracha Arnold
Aug 26, 2025
3 minutes

The beauty industry continues to flourish, with external factors like the rise of #BeautyTok, the influence of online creators, and a steady stream of new products driving interest. Within this landscape, Ulta (ULTA) has been driving strong sales, capitalizing on continued interest in beauty to fuel this growth.

Ulta Navigates Headwinds

Following major gains through the pandemic years and beyond, Ulta's visits have flattened slightly. In Q2 2025, overall visits to the chain grew by 1.4% year over year (YoY), likely thanks to store openings (Ulta opened 62 new stores between Q1 2024 and Q1 2025), as same-store visits declined by 1.1% in the same period. 

Despite softer same-store foot traffic as seen in the chart below, Ulta delivered strong comp sales growth of 2.9% last quarter, driven by a 2.3% rise in average ticket size and a 10.0% increase in e-commerce sales. Now, the chain seems to be entering a new phase of its story, choosing to wind down its Target partnership in favor of its Ulta Beauty Unleashed growth plan. 

Ulta Shoppers Ready for Target Break

As Ulta’s growth momentum slows, its decision not to renew its six-year partnership with Target may be a strategic move to direct traffic to its growing store fleet. 

The partnership launched in 2021 with the goals of making prestige beauty more accessible to Target shoppers while helping Ulta "deepen loyalty with existing guests and introduce Ulta Beauty to new guests." And, at least for Ulta, the strategy seems to have worked – the share of Target shoppers also visiting Ulta stores has increased significantly since the launch, as seen in the chart below. This suggests that the Ulta shop-in-shops helped the chain acquire new customers through the brand exposure generated by the partnership. 

But the data also suggests that the benefits to Ulta may be diminishing. Since 2023, the share of Target shoppers also visiting Ulta appears to have plateaued around 30%, indicating that the shop-in-shops are no longer driving meaningful traffic to stand-alone Ulta stores. Meanwhile, Ulta now has a larger store fleet than it did in 2021 (the company opened approximately 150 new stores between Q2 2021 and Q1 2025). This expansion likely also contributed to increased cross-visitation while reducing the partnership's value proposition, as beauty consumers now have more opportunities to visit standalone Ulta stores. With the partnership's customer acquisition benefits plateauing and Ulta's expanded footprint reducing reliance on Target's locations, ending the collaboration appears to be a logical step toward maximizing traffic to Ulta's own stores. 

Now, both brands have new opportunities to focus on their relative strengths. For Ulta, that means building out its Ulta Beauty Unleashed program, which will see the brand focus on improving store operations, enhancing the digital experience, and moving into new markets. Meanwhile, incoming Target CEO Michael Fiddelke plans to take the company back to its roots, focusing on its own merchandise and using technology to improve efficiency.

Ulta Beats Expectations 

As Ulta transitions away from its Target partnership and focuses on its Ulta Beauty Unleashed growth plan, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on expanding store operations, enhanced digital experiences, and entry into new markets. 

For the latest data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor

Article
Where Can Dollar General & Dollar Tree Still Expand? 
Dollar Tree's strategic refocus is driving accelerating traffic growth in Q2 2025 while Dollar General's momentum has cooled. Geographic analysis reveals both chains operate in distinct regional strongholds, creating significant white space expansion opportunities rather than direct competition.
Shira Petrack
Aug 26, 2025
3 minutes

Dollar General and Dollar Tree have grown significantly in recent years, upending the competitive dynamics in the wider retail landscape. Can these chains continue to grow? Or are they beginning to reach their saturation point? We dove into the data to find out. 

Focus on Dollar Tree Banner Delivers Growth

Dollar Tree recently completed the sale of the Family Dollar brand, allowing management to dedicate its efforts to "Dollar Tree's long-term growth, profitability and returns on capital." 

The strategic refocus appears to be already paying off. As the chart below shows, year-over-year (YoY) overall and same-store visits to the chain have surged in recent months, indicating strong organic performance amplified by fleet expansion.

Dollar General Still Growing – At a Slower Pace 

Meanwhile, Dollar General is also experiencing traffic growth – though momentum has cooled slightly. After posting a robust 12.2% visit increase between July 2023 and July 2024, growth has decelerated to 2.9% year-over-year in July 2025.  

Still, although Dollar General's growth has slowed while Dollar Tree's growth has picked up, Dollar General remains the significantly larger chain. In H1 2025, 58.7% of combined visits to the two retailers went to Dollar General, compared to 41.3% of visits to Dollar Tree. And just because Dollar General's growth has slowed somewhat does not mean that the company has reached its saturation point. 

Geographic Analysis Reveals Expansion Opportunities

Even though both chains have been growing for several years, geographic data reveals that domestic expansion opportunities for both retailers still exist. 

The map below shows the share of combined visits to Dollar General and Dollar Tree going to each chain by DMA. Dollar Tree receives a majority of visits in the yellow DMAs, which are heavily concentrated in the Western United States. In contrast, Dollar General receives the majority of visits in the purple DMAs which cover most of the Midwest and South. 

This distinct geographic segmentation indicates that rather than competing head-to-head, each chain has built regional strongholds – creating significant white space opportunities for cross-regional expansion. Dollar Tree's renewed focus and accelerating traffic position it well to build up its position in the South and Midwest – Dollar General's traditional markets. Conversely, Dollar General's established operational scale and proven rural market penetration strategy could drive significant growth for the chain in Dollar Tree's Western strongholds.

Dollar Tree & Dollar General's Growth Potential 

Dollar Tree’s sharpened focus and accelerating traffic growth signal strong long-term potential, while Dollar General’s scale ensures it remains a formidable player despite cooling momentum. With distinct geographic strongholds, both retailers still have significant white space for expansion – setting the stage for continued growth rather than saturation.

For the most up-to-date superstore visit data, check out Placer.ai's free tools.

Reports
INSIDER
Report
The Return to Office
Dive into the data to uncover the state of office recovery in major cities nationwide – and see how the in-office workforce has evolved since COVID.
March 7, 2024
9 minutes

The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.

This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.

A Shifting Landscape

The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.

Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”). 

But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground. 

This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023?  What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?

Rumors Greatly Exaggerated?

Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023. 

Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.  

TGIF Vibes

But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes. 

On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022. 

The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world. 

New York and Miami Approach 80.0% Recovery

Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.

Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory. 

In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.  

San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.

Financial Sector Helps Drive RTO

To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.

The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader. 

Edging Towards Normalcy

Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?

To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.

Rebounding Income Levels – With Regional Variation

The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic. 

Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.

Younger Employees Lean In to In-Person Work

Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas. 

For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers. 

Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time. 

Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.

Affluent Gen Xers Lead by Example

Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y. 

Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.

Negotiations Still Underway

COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.

INSIDER
Q4 2023 Quarterly Index
Find out how the Fitness, Beauty & Self Care, Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores, Grocery Stores, and Dining categories fared during last year’s all-important holiday shopping season.
February 15, 2024
6 minutes

Overview of Categories: Q4 2023 and Yearly Review

Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences. 

In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year. 

The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.

Fitness: Not Just for New Year’s Resolutions Anymore

Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences

And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not). 

Budget and Premium Fitness on the Rise

Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.

Beauty & Self Care: Wellness-Driven Success

Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy. 

Ulta Beauty Stays Ahead of the Pack

One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline. 

Discount & Dollar Stores: Entering the Mainstream

If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream

And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.

Five Below Above the Rest

Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022. 

Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe. 

Superstores: Capturing the Crowds

During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween. 

Members Only, Please

On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials. 

Grocery Stores: Holding Onto Gains

The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category. 

Value Grocers Lead the Way

Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.

Dining: Staying the Course

Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).  

Success Across Dining Sub-Categories

Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse. 

And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth. 

INSIDER
10 Top Brands to Watch in 2024
This report analyzes the latest location intelligence data to identify ten brands poised to succeed in 2024.
February 8, 2024

The State Of Retail 

New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs. 

This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners. 

1. New Balance: From Dad To Dapper

Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool. 

Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.  

2. Harbor Freight Tools: A Wide Reach 

The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies. 

Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.    

3. Winmark: Poppin’ Tags

Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023. 

The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits. 

4. HomeGoods: Hunting For Deals

HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.

HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.

5. Bealls: Rural Expansion

Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name. 

One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.

6. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: Built To Last

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers. 

A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are. 

7. Trader Joe’s: Young And Hungry

Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023. 

Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.

8. Foxtrot Market: The C-Store Connoisseur

Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.

Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s  “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.

9. Jersey Mike’s: Suburban Style

Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024. 

The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well. 

10. Playa Bowl: Surf’s Up

The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside. 

Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.

Starting The New Year Strong

The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.

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