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One of the major stories of 2023 was the rise in food prices, with costs up roughly 25% since 2020 – and the increasing costs of food and other goods have helped discount grocers thrive.
We checked back in with two grocery chains known for their bargain prices and private labels – Aldi and Lidl – to see how they’re doing.
Aldi offers prices that rival those of discount grocers, making it a major player in the discount grocery segment. And these attractive prices have helped the company see significant visit growth over the past few years. Year-over-year (YoY) monthly visits to Aldi were up throughout 2023 and into 2024, with some of the growth due to the chain’s aggressive expansion. And the company plans to grow even further – Aldi has announced plans to open another 800 stores over the next few years.
Lidl – another German-based grocer – opened its first location in Virginia in 2017. The chain currently has around 170 locations in the country, primarily on the East Coast, and is also expanding – albeit at a slower pace. Between February 2023 and February 2024, YoY visits to Lidl were up almost every month with only a slight dip in January 2024 – perhaps due to the unseasonal cold – a promising sign for the discount grocer as more consumers than ever choose low-cost food options.
Although both Lidl and Aldi are German-owned discount grocers, examining the demographics for the two brands' trade areas nationwide sheds light on the differences between the two chain’s consumer bases.
Analyzing the trade area median HHI reveals that Lidl attracts a higher-income clientele than Aldi: The median household income (HHI) in Aldi’s trade area was slightly lower than the the nationwide median, with the median HHI in the chain’s captured market even lower than the median HHI in its potential market. This indicates that Aldi locates its stores in areas that are accessible to the average consumer and succeeds in attracting also the slightly lower income segments within its potential trade area.
Meanwhile, Lidl’s potential market median HHI stood at $78.8K/year in 2023, and the median HHI in its captured market was even higher – $88.1K/year – indicating that Lidl stores are located in more affluent areas, and that the company caters to the wealthier households within those neighborhoods.
The share of households with children in Aldi’s potential and captured market was also almost identical to the nationwide average – indicating once again Aldi’s success in reaching the average U.S. grocery shopper. Lidl, on the other hand, saw more households with children in both its captured and potential markets, with the share of households with children in its captured market around two percentage points higher than the share of households with children nationwide. So while Aldi and Lidl do share some similarities in terms of origins, preference for private label, and pricing, the trade area analysis points to major differences between the two chains’ audiences.
*A chain or venue’s potential market refers to the people that reside in its trade area, based on the business’ True Trade Area and weighted by census block group (CBG) within the trade area according to the size of its population. Captured markets represent the population that visits the business in practice, and the data is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain or venue in question.
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Diving into the psychographic data for Aldi and Lidl adds another dimension to the trends revealed by the demographic data. While both brands are popular among suburban audiences – Aldi tends to attract a more blue-collar customer, while Lidl is frequented by a wealthier suburban segment. The share of visitors falling into the “Small Town Low Income” category was 7.5% for Aldi compared to 0.9% for Lidl. Conversely, Lidl saw 16.7% of its visitors falling into the “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” segment, while Aldi had 10.6% of its consumers in that category.
And while Aldi and Lidl have a hold on different suburban segments, the chains’ expansion strategies seem geared to grow each chain’s reach outside the other’s orbit. Lidl has been opening stores in big cities along the East Coast, including New York City’s tony Chelsea neighborhood, perhaps in a bid to reach more of the wealthier customers that favor the brand. Aldi, meanwhile, recently acquired grocery chains Winn-Dixie and Southeast Grocers, brands that typically attract a more price-sensitive consumer. This acquisition will significantly expand Aldi’s presence and will likely appeal to value-oriented shoppers, a segment already receptive to its offerings.
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The past few years have seen the grocery space adapting to an increasingly value-oriented consumer, and Aldi and Lidl have benefitted from this shift. As inflation cools and both companies expand their footprints, will they continue on their upward trajectory?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Since COVID, millions of Americans have relocated from major population centers in California, New York, and Illinois (among others) to other regions of the country. Whether in search of job opportunities, affordable housing, or simply a change of scenery, thousands of people have decamped to places like Tampa, Florida, Bozeman, Montana, and Portland, Maine. And the great state of Texas – with its wide open spaces and relatively affordable cost of living – has emerged as a favored destination.
So with 2024 underway, we dove into the data to explore domestic migration trends in the Lone Star State. How much has the population of Texas grown as a result of domestic migration over the past several years – and which metro areas (CBSAs) are attracting new residents? Are people moving to major cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio, or are they heading out to the suburbs?
Between December 2019 and December 2023, Texas’ population grew by 4.3% – with nearly a third of this increase driven by new residents hailing from elsewhere in the U.S.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, many of these new arrivals made a bee-line to Texas’ four most populous metropolitan areas – Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, San Antonio-New Braunfels, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land. During this time period, each of these CBSAs experienced positive net migration (meaning that more people moved to these areas than away from them) ranging from 0.4% to 3.4%.
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But a deeper analysis of foot traffic trends reveals that, even as the CBSAs as a whole added new residents, the primary cities anchoring the CBSAs often lost more domestic migrants than they gained. Austin proper lost 6.1% of its population to relocation, while Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio lost 4.2%, 3.9%, and 3.2%, respectively. Only Fort Worth – Texas’ fifth-most-populous city – experienced positive net migration over the past four years.
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Why are major metropolitan areas seeing population influxes, even as their central urban hubs experience outflows? Drilling down even deeper into zip-code level location intelligence provides a striking snapshot of what’s actually happening on the ground.
In all four CBSAs, zip codes belonging to the metro area’s flagship city were more likely to experience negative net migration – while those in further-away suburbs and towns were more likely to see positive inflow.
The relative growth experienced by Fort Worth can be understood against this backdrop: Fort Worth may be one of Texas’ biggest cities, but it is smaller – and less expensive – than Dallas, which dominates the metro area.
Suburban life offers residents many of the benefits of proximity to major urban centers, without some of the drawbacks – like smaller homes. And with more Americans free today to live further away from the office, many appear to be choosing suburban chill over big-city hassle.
Home to the Alamo, a premier state fair, and arguably one of the cultiest grocery chains in the country (H-E-B, of course), Texas has become a key destination for Americans seeking greener (and cheaper) pastures. And though major metropolitan centers in the Lone Star State have seen significant positive net migration over the past four years – much of that growth has taken place outside of the state’s biggest cities.
How will Texas’ population continue to evolve over the next months and years? Will big cities make a comeback – or are suburbs and smaller towns poised to remain the main drivers of growth?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven domestic migration analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Brands like M&Ms, Hershey’s, and Jelly Belly are redefining what it means to be as happy as a “kid in a candy store.” With their life-size M&M characters on a flagship in Orlando, FL, a chocolate Statue of Liberty sculpted out of 800 pounds of Hershey’s chocolate on the Las Vegas Strip, or a working jellybean factory tour in Fairfield, CA, manufacturers are literally bringing their brands to life. M&M’s World in Orlando, FL posted particularly impressive year-over-year visits in the second half of 2023.
Recently, Hollywood darling Timothee Chalamet starred in the fantastical movie Wonka, grossing $600M+ worldwide. In other headline news, the “tried to jump on the wagon but failed miserably” fiasco of the unauthorized Willy’s Chocolate Experience in Scotland reveals that the appetite for sweets and chocolate is insatiable. Never fear, if you missed the Candytopia pop-up a few years ago, you can head over to Dylan’s Candy Bar for an experience right out of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. It’s clear that demand peaks in the summer, probably due to locations that see summer tourists. The holidays are another popular season for buying sweets.
At Hershey’s Chocolate World, one can be immersed in all-things chocolate, from creating your own candy to taking a selfie with a life-size Reese’s peanut butter cup. The dessert options are limited only by your imagination. That tower of S’mores sure looks tempting!
Many visitors also opt to visit the Hershey Story Museum or stay at Hershey Lodge or the Hotel Hershey.
If you prefer your sweets in liquid form, there are three Coca-Cola Stores--in Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Orlando--to satisfy your cravings. Here, you can buy a Coke plushie, flout the famous “Enjoy Coca-Cola” slogan shirt in a variety of languages, or dress yourself head-to-toe in comfy Coke PJs. One of the coolest options is an international tasting flight that lets you try out Coca-Cola beverages from around the world, with flavors like sparberry from Zimbabwe.
At the Coca-Cola Store in Orlando, FL, visitation jumps during vacations like Spring Break, summer, and Christmas holidays.
Another beloved brand that has made its way into brick-and-mortar is King’s Hawaiian. Founded in 1950, they were famous for their round loaves of sweet and fluffy Hawaiian bread. Fast forward three-quarters of a century later, and they have added new options like savory dinner rolls or pull-apart pans of bread. One can experience gastronomic delights made with Hawaiian bread at their Torrance-based King’s Hawaiian Bakery and Restaurant.
The restaurant menu includes breakfasts featuring their famous King’s Hawaiian Sweet Bread as French toast, lunch and dinner options like Macadamia Nut Onion Rings, Chicken Katsu Curry Loco Moco, and Saimin noodles, but it’s the bakery that literally takes the cake. The Paradise Delight Cake has three layers of chiffon cake in enticing flavors like guava, passionfruit, and lime. It is then topped with layers of fresh strawberries, peaches, and kiwis. One can also choose from chocolate, coconut, pineapple, raspberry cakes, and more.
With Placer's ranking of "Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, and Dessert Shops" indicating that King's is in the top 1% nationwide and statewide, it looks like they've found a sweet recipe for success.
The Waldorf Astoria and Ritz-Carlton hotels are two of the most recognizable names in luxury lodging. Both opened in New York City – the Waldorf Astoria in 1893 and the Ritz-Carlton in 1911 – and are owned by two major hotel corporations: the Waldorf Astoria is part the Hilton Hotels & Resorts portfolio of brands, while the Ritz-Carlton is part of Marriott International, Inc’s portfolio.
Who is most likely to visit each brand? What are the similarities – and differences – between the two hotels’ guest segmentations? We take a closer look at the demographic and psychographic data to find out.
Analyzing the demographic makeup of the Waldorf Astoria and Ritz-Carlton’s trade areas by layering the STI: Popstats dataset onto captured market trade areas revealed that the Waldorf Astoria’s trade area has a higher share of households with children compared to that of the Ritz-Carlton (25.6% compared to 23.6%). But both chains had a smaller share of households with children in their trade areas relative to the nationwide average (27.6%). It seems, then, that singles or empty nesters may be more likely to book a luxury getaway than consumers with heavier parenting responsibilities.
Unsurprisingly, the chains also attract a particularly high-income clientele: The median household income (HHI) in both brands’ trade areas is over 50% higher than the nationwide median ($108.4K and $104.5K for the trade areas of the Waldorf Astoria and Ritz Carlton, respectively, compared to a nationwide median of $69.5K). The data also showed that Waldorf Astoria’s trade area is slightly more affluent than that of the Ritz-Carlton – perhaps due in part to the Ritz-Carlton’s recent attempts to court younger guests.
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Leveraging the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to explore the psychographic composition of the hotel chains’ trade area further supports the distinctions between the brands highlighted in the demographic analysis.
The psychographic analysis showed that the Waldorf Astoria had more family segments in its trade area than the Ritz-Carlton, while the Ritz-Carlton catered to more single and empty-nester households – as expected given the demographic composition of the chains’ trade areas.
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Luxury hotels are known for their impeccable service – and to curate the ideal guest experience, these brands need to accurately predict their visitors' dining and leisure preferences. Hoteliers can leverage the Placer.ai Marketplace and combine trade area data with various datasets – including data on consumers’ social media activity with tools like the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset – to pinpoint their guests’ tastes and preferences.
Analyzing the preferences for certain types of foods or entertainment within the hotel chains’ trade areas revealed – once again – similarities and differences between the brands. Both chains’ trade areas included larger shares of “Farm-to-Table Cooking Enthusiasts”, “Asian Food Enthusiasts”, and “Craft Coffee At-Home Enthusiasts,” as well as more “Opera Lovers” and “Salsa Music Fans” than the nationwide average. But the foodie segments were slightly more over-indexed within the Waldorf’s trade area, while residents of the Ritz-Carlton’s trade area seemed a little more keen on Opera and Salsa. These hotel chains can leverage this data to determine the type of dining or entertainment options that will set these brands apart from the competition and best attract their specific audience.
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The Waldorf Astoria and Ritz-Carlton continue to define luxury lodging in the country while attracting some of the nation's most discerning guests. Understanding the demographic and psychographic guest segmentation of each chain can help inform your loyalty strategy.
For more data-driven travel & leisure insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
St. Patrick’s Day, which falls each year on March 17th, is a day for bar crawls, green makeup, and drinks with friends. Cities like New York and Chicago host major celebrations, drawing big crowds to their downtown areas. And bars and pubs fill up with revelers eager to mark the occasion with a green cocktail or a taste of corned beef and cabbage.
There’s plenty of joy to go around – and towns across the country are getting in on the St. Paddy’s Day action with parades and family-friendly events. What kind of a lift do traditional St. Patrick’s Day destinations like bars and pubs get on the big day? And what other retail categories stand to benefit from the occasion?
Unsurprisingly, bars and pubs get major boosts on the week of St. Patrick’s Day, as club hoppers and other celebrants converge on their local watering holes for drinks and fun. Chains like The Brass Tap and Bar Louie offer special deals and parties, with everything from green beer to Irish whiskey. And on the week of March 11th, 2024, visits to the two chains were up 15.7% and 21.1%, respectively, compared to an early October baseline – slightly outpacing even the busy Christmas season.
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But St. Patrick’s Day isn’t just for bar crawling. And although the festivities are usually associated with major metropolises like New York City and Chicago, cities like Myrtle Beach, SC, San Antonio, TX. Indianapolis, IN, and Savannah, GA also come to life mid-March with parades and parties rivaling those of their bigger counterparts.
On Saturday, March 16th 2024 at 11:00 A.M., San Antonio, TX kicked off its annual St. Patrick’s Day festivities with the traditional dyeing of the San Antonio River. Throughout the weekend, parades and celebrations drew crowds to the city’s famed River Walk – and while bars and clubs undoubtedly benefited from the excitement, they weren’t the only ones to do so. San Antonio’s Shops at Rivercenter enjoyed its busiest day since 2019, drawing 61.4% more foot traffic on March 16th than on an average Saturday this year.
Savannah, GA, North Myrtle Beach, SC, and Indianapolis, IN also hosted big St. Patrick’s Day events, bringing foot traffic – and business – to local retailers. For Savannah, March 16th, 2024 marked the 200th anniversary of the city’s famous St. Patrick’s Day Parade, and the town was positively booming. City Market, the iconic shopping corridor located in the heart of Savannah’s Historic District, was the most crowded it’s been since at least January 2023, with March 17th 2023 (the day of last year’s parade) coming in a close second.
Malls and shopping districts weren’t the only places to get significant leprechaun-inspired visit bumps. Grocery stores, pharmacies, and eateries located in proximity to the festivities also reaped the benefits of the hubbub, as parade-goers likely dropped in to snag some essentials or fuel up for the long day.
And it isn’t just locals turning out for all these events. A look at hotel foot traffic patterns nationwide shows that the week of St. Patrick’s Day kicks off the hospitality industry’s spring season – with cities hosting special events seeing even more significant visit spikes. During the week of March 11th, 2024, hotel venues in the analyzed cities drew many more visits than usual, showcasing the power of St. Paddy’s Day to supercharge the tourism sector.
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St. Patrick’s Day is about a lot more than bars and pubs. And in recent years, the popular green-themed holiday has emerged as an important driver of tourism and retail activity across the U.S.
What other local celebrations are fueling foot traffic spikes in cities nationwide? Does your city know the impact of location celebrations on local businesses? Are local businesses prepared for the increase in foot traffic and revenue opportunities during local celebrations?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven civic and retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
JOANN recently announced that it had filed for bankruptcy, and the company expects to go private as early as next month. Can the retailer still make a comeback? We dove into the data to find out.
JOANN went public in March 2021 – at the height of the pandemic – following a particularly strong 2020. The COVID-era crafting boom had put the company on a growth trajectory, with visits during the first year of the pandemic barely lower than in 2019 despite the lockdowns and movement restrictions. But as the country reopened and people’s schedules filled back up – leaving less time for sewing and knitting – visits began to fall. Foot traffic in 2021 was lower than in 2020, and by 2022, overall visits to the chain were 11.8% lower than they had been in 2019
But now, recent foot traffic data indicates that demand for fabric-related crafting supplies may be rebounding. In 2023, visits to the chain grew relative to 2022 and the visit gap relative to 2019 narrowed. Sewing appears to be making a comeback, with both millennials and Gen-Z exhibiting a newfound interest in the craft. And although the resurgence of interest in fiber arts was not strong enough to prevent JOANN’s recent bankruptcy filing, the YoY visit growth in 2023 indicates that the company should not be written off just yet.
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According to C.F.O. Scott Sekella, 95% of JOANN’s stores are cash-flow positive. The company is also committed to maintaining usual operations during the court-supervised procedure. And this year as well – especially since the end of early 2024’s cold spell – JOANN’s year-over-year (YoY) visits have trended positive, even outperforming YoY foot traffic to other leading crafting retailers.
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The unique nature of JOANN’s products give the company’s brick-and-mortar stores an advantage over digital counterparts: Crafters like to get a feel for the material before purchasing, and amateur DIY-ers who visit physical stores can consult with expert salespeople to receive guidance for ongoing projects. And although foot traffic to JOANN’s stores is not what it was at the height of the pandemic, the YoY visit growth in 2023 indicates that the brand is still serving many committed sewers and knitters who are choosing to shop in-person. So how can JOANN maintain its store fleet while optimizing in-store operations?
Analyzing the change in hourly visits between 2022 and 2023 reveals that the YoY growth is not evenly distributed across dayparts. Morning and early afternoon visits saw modest increases, but traffic growth really ramped up in the afternoon and evening – peaking between 6:00 and 6:59 PM – and visits actually decreased between 7:00 and 8:59 PM. Should the company try to streamline its logistics without sacrificing its large store fleet, JOANN may focus its staffing and operational costs on the dayparts with the most growth potential and reduce expenditure during the less popular timeslots.
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Despite the crafting retailer’s current rough patch, location intelligence suggests that the company is a strong contender for a post-bankruptcy comeback. And the positive YoY trends also indicate that – despite the ongoing headwinds and contraction in discretionary spending – there is still demand for hobby-driven retail in 2024.
How will the bankruptcy proceedings impact foot traffic to JOANN? What does the rest of 2024 hold for the brand?
Check in with our blog at placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
