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Tractor Supply’s growing footprint continues to stand out in a retail environment where many chains remain cautious about physical expansion. We took a closer look at Tractor Supply’s market positioning to better understand how the chain’s deliberate expansion strategy sets it up for success in 2026.
Tractor Supply continued to scale its physical footprint in 2025, leveraging the acquisition of former Big Lots sites and reinforcing store growth as a core lever of its “Life Out Here” strategy. The chain’s expansion likely contributed to its steady year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout 2025. Meanwhile, positive average visits per location in most months suggests that new stores were capturing incremental demand rather than diluting traffic at existing locations – reinforcing management’s commentary around limited cannibalization.
Tractor Supply intends to open around 100 new stores in 2026 as part of its longer-term roadmap to 3200 stores (the retailer currently has 2,398 locations), setting high expectations for continued foot traffic growth in 2026.
As Tractor Supply expands, its strategy has been focused on rural and western high-growth markets where demand remains underserved. And with a relatively small store format, Tractor Supply has a distinct advantage over big-box chains that often face site-selection challenges in these markets.
Analysis of AI-based potential market data combined with the STI: Market Outlook dataset shows that the unmet demand (demand minus supply) for building materials and supplies within Tractor Supply’s potential market – i.e. the areas from which it drives traffic – far surpasses unmet demand in the wider Home Improvement category’s potential market. This comparison – in just one of the retail categories that Tractor Supply occupies along with its peers – suggests substantial white space for the chain, driven by a footprint that prioritizes underserved markets rather than the more established ones where many industry counterparts compete.
And as Tractor Supply expanded between 2024 and 2025, unmet demand for building materials and supplies in the chain's potential market increased, even as unmet demand across the broader Home Improvement category declined. Together, these trends point to a site selection strategy that places Tractor Supply in high-demand regions where few retailers are positioned to fully meet consumer needs.
What can we learn from Tractor Supply’s strategy and 2025 performance? Sometimes, it pays to be smaller, and unlock demand away from the competitive landscapes where bigger players operate. By pairing an accelerated store-opening strategy with purposeful site selection, Tractor Supply appears well-positioned for sustained traffic growth.
Will Tractor Supply continue to build momentum in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Recent traffic trends to major dining chains show the divergence within the full-service dining space going into 2026. While Brinker International's flagship brand Chili's Grill continued reaping the benefits of its popular food bundles and drinks specials, Maggiano's Little Italy – the company's more upscale concept – struggled to reach 2024 visitation levels in Q4 2025.
For both Dine Brands Global, Inc. and Texas Roadhouse, Inc., traffic changes were mostly due to storefleet reconfigurations. Dine Brands' three banners contracted in 2025, leading to overall visit declines at Applebee's and Fuzzy's (IHOP maintained stable traffic patterns) – but all three concepts outperformed in terms of average visits per venue as the company's rightsizing efforts appeared to be bearing fruit. Meanwhile, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. showed the opposite pattern as its three banners expanded, leading to overall visit growth – but average visits per venue decreased, suggesting that traffic gains were mostly driven by unit expansion.
These patterns reflect a more selective consumer environment heading into 2026, where growth is increasingly shaped by brand positioning, value perception, and disciplined fleet strategies rather than broad-based demand recovery. A closer look at monthly visit trends across major banners further illustrates these dynamics.
After leading the full-service restaurant category in 2024, Chili’s once again emerged as a standout performer in 2025, delivering consistent monthly visit gains despite a softer consumer environment. The brand has successfully established and maintained a clear value proposition, helping keep Chili’s top of mind for consumers seeking an affordable sit-down dining option
At the same time, recent monthly traffic trends suggest that sustaining this momentum into 2026 may require continued innovation, whether through refreshed bundled offerings, targeted promotions, or menu updates that reinforce value without eroding margins. But even if traffic growth moderates in the year ahead, maintaining the elevated visitation levels achieved over the past two years would still leave Chili’s in a notably strong competitive position within the full-service dining landscape.
Applebee’s and IHOP saw YoY declines in overall visits, but same-store traffic generally held up better – indicating that fleet rationalization helped stabilize per-restaurant demand. These trends point to the importance of right-sizing footprints and prioritizing unit-level productivity in a constrained consumer environment.
Visits to Texas Roadhouse in 2025 were up 2.1% compared to 2024, in part thanks to the chain's ongoing expansion. Same-store performance also remained positive for much of the year, suggesting that the larger store fleet can be supported by existing demand.
And even as traffic trends moderated toward the end of the year, the chain’s overall 2025 visit growth suggests an underlying demand that is strong enough to support Texas Roadhouse’s expanding footprint despite the most recent slowdown.
Overall, traffic patterns at these three major FSR players point to a more selective and competitive full-service dining environment heading into 2026, where broad-based demand recovery remains elusive. Brands that clearly communicate value or actively optimize their store fleets appear better positioned to defend store-level demand, while expansion-led growth models face increasing pressure to deliver stronger unit-level productivity. As consumer discretion remains constrained, execution and positioning – not scale alone – will likely define traffic winners in the year ahead.
Fore more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Columbus, Ohio is among the Midwest’s fastest-growing metro areas. Like downtown business districts across the country, its urban core is seeing a return to the office. What do inbound commuter traffic patterns reveal about this shift – and how can local stakeholders, from retailers to commercial real estate investors, capitalize on the opportunities created by this growing influx?
Growing metro areas depend on vibrant downtown anchors for employment and economic activity. In Columbus, OH, the downtown area has long served as a key destination for commuters as the city’s population and labor force have grown. Favorable business incentives, and the presence of major employers such as Nationwide Insurance, Huntington Bancshares, and American Electric Power contribute to Downtown Columbus’s rising commuter population.
Analysis of the regions with the highest shares of commuters to Downtown Columbus shows that both nearby urban neighborhoods and surrounding suburbs contribute significantly to the city’s downtown workforce.
The map below reveals that over the past 12 months, the densely-populated 43201 zip code drove one of the highest shares of downtown commuters. This urban corridor includes the rejuvenated Weinland Park neighborhood and parts of the University District and trendy Short North. Many of these commuters are likely students or recent graduates entering the workforce – drawn downtown by internships, early-career roles, and professional opportunities.
At the same time, the suburbs also play a defining role in Downtown Columbus’s workforce composition. The 43123 zip code – centered around Grove City – and 43026 – anchored by Hilliard – also had relatively large shares of Downtown Columbus commuters. This reflects a broader trend of workers balancing suburban lifestyles with city-based employment opportunities.
While Downtown Columbus’s workforce reflects a mix of suburban and urban commuters, the composition within its commercial corridors is even more nuanced – shaped by distinct demographic and psychographic characteristics.
Among the analyzed corridors, the Arena District stood out for having the highest median household income (HHI) and the largest share of the “Young Professionals” segment among commuters in 2025, suggesting a workforce anchored in early- to mid-career white-collar roles. This profile aligns with the district’s mix of corporate offices, and sports and entertainment–adjacent employers that may attract younger, upwardly mobile workers.
The Discovery District followed closely in terms of median income, but its psychographic mix skewed differently. The area had one of the highest shares of the “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment, alongside the largest concentration of the “City Hopefuls” segment, among the downtown corridors analyzed. Anchored by institutions such as Columbus State Community College, major healthcare employers, research organizations, and cultural assets like the Columbus Metropolitan Library and the Columbus Museum of Art, the district appears to draw a diverse, but upper-income mix of commuters tied to public service, education, and nonprofit work.
The Uptown District stood apart with a median commuter HHI below that of the Columbus, OH DMA, and elevated shares of “City Hopefuls” and “Young Professionals” compared to the region. This profile likely reflects the district’s concentration of government offices and white-collar employers in law and finance, alongside the service-sector workforce that supports the area’s high daily activity – together pulling a wide spectrum of income levels into the corridor each day.
With the right strategy, the diversity among commuters – who are also consumers of restaurants, retailers, and other service-oriented industries – creates opportunities for businesses to engage their target audiences where they spend meaningful daytime hours.
A downtown reflects not only a metro’s economic strength but also the fabric of its cultures and communities. In Columbus, the downtown serves as both a hub of commercial activity and a crossroads for commuters from diverse backgrounds. This diversity presents businesses with opportunities to carve out a target audience and civic leaders with a responsibility to ensure that Downtown Columbus continues to serve the needs of all who power it.
For more regional analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Between July and October 2025, Chipotle’s year-over-year (YoY) visit growth was driven almost entirely by expansion. Overall chain-wide visits rose each month, while same-store visits remained negative, generally hovering between -1% and -2%.
This pattern aligns closely with Chipotle’s recent earnings results. In Q2 2025, the company reported a 4% decline in comparable restaurant sales driven by a nearly 5% drop in transactions, even as average check size increased modestly. Q3 showed a slight improvement in same-store sales, but that gain was driven by higher checks rather than traffic, prompting Chipotle to trim its same-store sales outlook to a low single-digit decline. Throughout this period, digital sales remained a significant share of revenue, and new restaurant openings continued to support overall growth.
More recent visit data, however, suggests the dynamic may be shifting. In November, same-store visits turned slightly positive, contributing to a stronger increase in total chain-wide traffic, and December data shows that improvement continued to build. While expansion remains a key driver, this emerging pattern suggests existing locations may be starting to regain momentum.
Some of Chipotle’s late-year momentum appears to be driven by a growing share of short visits (defined as those lasting under ten minutes), which accounted for 42.2% of total chain traffic in 2025 – up from 41.2% in 2024. These quicker trips have consistently outperformed longer visits on a YoY basis, making their increasing share an important contributor to overall visit growth.
Importantly, the rise in short visits does not appear to be coming at the expense of longer ones. From July through October 2025, average per-location visits lasting under ten minutes remained essentially flat even as longer visits continued to lag; by December, however, both short and longer visits were growing on a per-location basis. This pattern indicates that the shift toward convenience is not cannibalizing traditional visit occasions, but may instead be lifting overall engagement with the brand.
Chipotle still benefits from expansion, but the more important story may be what’s happening inside existing restaurants: Same-store visits are stabilizing while quick trips gain share. And with the December launch of an all-new high-protein menu, Chipotle is signaling that it isn’t standing still – it’s continuing to refine its offerings to stay relevant as customer expectations and visit behaviors change.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
McDonald’s ended 2025 with clear visit momentum, reversing earlier softness and posting steady gains in the back half of the year. Same-store visits followed a similar trajectory, indicating that growth was driven by stronger underlying demand rather than unit expansion. This late-year rebound positions McDonald’s with solid visit momentum heading into 2026, suggesting improving consumer engagement as the year closed.
Some of the visit growth is likely due to the chain's popular Q4 LTOs – but diving deeper into the visit frequency data suggests that McDonald’s long-term investment in its loyalty program is also playing a part. The company's launch of MyMcDonald’s Rewards in 2021 seems to have succeeded in shifting traffic toward higher-frequency, incremental visits rather than relying on new customer acquisition.
Compared to pre-loyalty levels in H2 2019, a growing share of McDonald’s visits now comes from diners visiting an average of 4+ times per month, with the share of visits from consumers visiting the chain an average of 8+ times per month showing the most dramatic growth. Grouping YoY visit trends by visit frequency also shows that visits from high-frequency diners grew the most compared to H2 2024 and H2 2019. This dynamic points to a core benefit of loyalty-led growth: driving incremental visits from existing customers is typically far more efficient than acquiring new ones, especially in a mature, highly penetrated category like quick service restaurants.
McDonald’s executives have been explicit that loyalty is designed to increase frequency, not just enrollment. The continued growth of the program through 2025 – including deeper integration with value offers and digital ordering – suggests McDonald’s is still finding room to extract incremental visits from an already loyal base.
For other restaurant chains, McDonald’s experience points to the value of using loyalty as a lever for incremental growth, particularly once a customer has already been acquired. While many QSR brands continue to drive expansion by entering new markets or opening additional locations, McDonald’s data illustrates how meaningful gains can also come from increasing visit frequency among existing customers. Even without McDonald’s scale, the underlying strategy is broadly applicable: converting first-time or occasional visitors into higher-frequency customers can serve as a complementary – and often more efficient – path to growth alongside physical expansion.
Will these lessons shape the QSR space in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
In 2024, Dollar Tree capitalized on the liquidation of the 99 Cents Only chain to execute a strategic "land grab" in the notoriously tight US retail market. By acquiring designation rights for 170 leases across priority markets like California, Arizona, Nevada, and Texas, the retailer aimed to bypass zoning hurdles and accelerate growth.
AI-powered location analytics indicates the selection process was highly disciplined: Looking at over 85 California stores that were converted from 99 Cents Only to Dollar Tree reveals that Dollar Tree cherry-picked high-performing sites that were generating 6.0% more foot traffic than the 99 Cents Only chain average in 2023. This suggests the acquisition was a calculated move to secure proven, high-quality real estate.
However, 2025 performance data reveals that capitalizing on this opportunity comes with distinct operational costs. Total visits to the converted stores have dropped 38.8% compared to their 2023 baselines. While some of this decline is structural – Dollar Tree operates a lower-frequency "treasure hunt" model compared to the high-frequency grocery model of the previous tenant – a significant portion is self-inflicted through network overlap.
A staggering 36% of the new sites are located less than a mile from an existing Dollar Tree, which inevitably dilutes local traffic through cannibalization. This serves as a critical lesson for retailers considering bulk acquisitions: purchasing a portfolio "en masse" often prevents perfect network optimization, forcing the acquirer to manage the friction where new footprints compete with the old.
Still, despite this cannibalization and the drop in raw volume, the transition offers a potential "healthy correction" for the business. The previous tenant collapsed under the weight of "rising levels of shrink" and low-margin grocery sales. By shifting the model, Dollar Tree is effectively filtering out non-paying visitors and low-value transactions, trading chaotic volume for a more controlled, margin-focused operation. The discrepancy between the sharp drop in total visits (-38.8%) and the more moderate dip in visits per square foot (-25.0%) suggests Dollar Tree is already rightsizing these operations, leaving some "ghost space" inactive rather than over-investing in labor to manage the entire cavernous floor.
And this excess square footage is only a liability if it remains empty; turning it into an asset requires leveraging the fundamental change in who is now shopping these aisles. The shift in shopper demographics – where "Wealthy Suburban Families" have replaced the "Young Urban Singles" and "Melting Pot Families" of the previous tenant – is crucial for Dollar Tree's future. This new audience, which is less price-sensitive, provides the ideal environment for Dollar Tree to deploy its "Multi-Price" strategy.
While CFO Jeff Davis has cited "start-up costs" regarding these conversions, the long-term opportunity is clear: if Dollar Tree can utilize the extra square footage to showcase this higher-margin assortment, these locations could evolve from overlapping burdens into profitable flagships that capture a share of wallet the traditional small-box fleet never could.
For more data-driven CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
