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Big Lots – the big-box discount store offering everything from snacks to higher-ticket items like furniture and mattresses – recently announced a major rightsizing initiative. Against the backdrop of declining sales, the company disclosed its intention to shutter up to 315 stores in coming months.
We dove into the data to explore some of the factors that may be impacting Big Lots’ store closure decisions – and to see which chains stand to benefit the most from Big Lots’ big move.
Store closures mean major markdowns – and the some 280 Big Lots locations already slated to close are drawing crowds with big sales. Analyzing monthly visit fluctuations at Big Lots shows that the shuttering locations experienced an impressive 19.2% month-over-month (MoM) visit spike in July 2024, even as the chain as a whole saw just a 1.9% uptick. Customers, it seems, are flocking to the stores on the chopping block to snag high-ticket items at even steeper discounts.
Rightsizing is all about fleet optimization – trimming underperforming locations and retaining those stores best equipped to meet the needs of a chain’s evolving customer base. And identifying common denominators among stores slated for closure can shed light on the considerations informing a retailer’s rightsizing strategy.
Analyzing the median household incomes (HHIs) of Big Lots’ closing locations' captured markets shows that the retailer is shuttering stores that serve more affluent consumers than the chain as a whole. Nationwide, for example, Big Lots drew visitors from areas with a median HHI of $65.5K in H1 2024. But the Big Lots slated for closure drew shoppers from areas with a median HHI of $73.5K. This pattern repeated itself across major markets where Big Lots is reducing its footprint – including Ohio, Florida, Washington, California, and Arizona.
Big Lots has noted a revitalization strategy focused on value and even more extreme bargain offerings. And the decision to shutter stores in more affluent areas may reflect a move by the retailer to lean into its core audience of price-conscious shoppers – though higher HHI customers can still benefit from the chain’s value offerings.
As Big Lots reduces its fleet, shoppers will naturally seek out alternatives. But which chains are best poised to reap the benefits? Cross-shopping data shows, unsurprisingly, that the vast majority of Big Lots visitors also frequent superstores – especially Walmart. In Q2 2024, a whopping 92.3% of Big Lots visitors nationwide stopped by a Walmart – compared to 52.7% for Target and just 20.8% for Costco.
But shopping behaviors vary significantly between regions. And zooming in on California, where Big Lots plans to close a majority of its 109 locations, paints a different picture. Golden State Big Lots shoppers, to be sure, also visit Walmart in high numbers (74.6% in Q2 2024). But they are much more likely than nationwide visitors to the chain to frequent Target and Costco. Given Big Lots’ significant fleet reduction in California, these two chains appear well-positioned to acquire some of this new regional business.
And drilling down even deeper into the habits of California shoppers at Big Lots, Walmart, Target, and Costco shows that of the three retail giants, Costco may be especially well-positioned to benefit from Big Lots’ Golden State closures.
Like Big Lots, Costco draws a high share of visits during the mornings and afternoons – with just over 50.0% of 10:00 AM - 8:00 PM visits taking place between 10:00 AM and 3:00 PM. As Big Lots’ California footprint contracts, some of these mid-day shoppers may hop over to Costco, which is also bustling during these hours.
Rightsizing creates opportunities – both for chains taking proactive steps to optimize their fleets, and for competitors seeking to pick up extra business. How will Big Lots’ big rightsizing move continue to play out in the months ahead?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Dave & Buster's and Main Event, two leading chains in the eatertainment industry, offer a unique mix of dining, arcade games, and immersive experiences, successfully drawing crowds seeking more than just a meal out.
We took a closer look at the two chains – both of them owned by parent company Dave & Busters Entertainment, Inc. – to see how they are faring as summer winds down.
Dave & Buster’s and Main Event have plenty of games for children – but with extensive drinks menus, they also decidedly cater to adults, offering both groups a much-needed opportunity to kick back, play some games, and enjoy a meal out with friends.
And recent foot traffic data shows that despite challenges, both chains are seeing overall YoY visit increases – partially driven by the chains’ fleet expansions. On a quarterly basis, foot traffic to Dave & Buster’s and Main Event has remained elevated year over year (YoY) since Q3 2023, finishing out Q2 2024 with respective visit boosts of 6.9% and 4.7%.
As prime eatertainment destinations, Dave & Buster’s and Main Event are busiest on weekends – with Saturday evening between 7:00 to 10:00 PM drawing the biggest crowds to both chains.
Between August 2023 and July 2024, 11.9% of visits to Dave & Buster’s and 9.4% of visits to Main Event took place during the Saturday evening time slot. Friday and Sunday also experienced increased foot traffic, with hourly fluctuations reflecting the rhythms of weekend activities: Friday visits picked up between 7:00 and 10:00 PM, as people likely wrapped up their work weeks and headed out to unwind with a drink and some skee ball. Sunday visits followed the opposite pattern, with stronger foot traffic earlier in the day that tapered off towards evening, as people put down their pool cues and got ready for the upcoming week.
But Dave & Buster’s and Main Event are both adept at harnessing special promotions to drive visits on off-peak, weekday hours. Dave & Buster’s famous Wednesdays half-off deals fueled significant visit upticks throughout the analyzed period – so it may come as no surprise that the chain recently stepped up its off-peak offerings with a new all-you-can-eat weekday wings deal. And Main Event, which has long offered a Monday Night Madness promotions, also unveiled a “Summer Season Pass” to encourage weekday visits among its customers.
Visitor behavior to Dave and Buster’s and Main Event also changes throughout the week. Analyzing the average driving distances of visitors to the two chains shows, unsurprisingly, that people drive further distances to visit the venues on the weekends – when they have more time on their hands.
Between August 2023 and July 2024, 43.9% of weekend visits (Friday to Sunday) to Dave & Buster’s, and 49.7% of weekend visits to Main Event were made by people traveling 10 miles or less to reach the restaurant. On Weekdays (Monday to Thursday), these numbers increased to 49.4% and 55.3%, respectively – indicating that on weekdays, the eatertainment chains are particularly appealing to locals looking for a convenient night out.
But interestingly, it was on weekdays that visitors to the two chains were most likely to come from more than 100 miles away, suggesting that these customers may be on vacation away from home – the perfect time to pop into an arcade mid-week and “unlearn adulthood.”
Dave & Buster's and Main Event Entertainment continue to flourish, attracting weekend crowds and drawing visitors from near and far. Can the two eatertainment chains continue to draw crowds as summer draws to a close?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven dining and entertainment trends.
The last several years have seen many Americans relocate to states like Texas, Florida, Montana, and Maine. We checked in with another region of the country that’s become a domestic migration hotspot in recent years – South Carolina – to explore what’s attracting movers to the state.
Analyzing domestic migration trends throughout the United States between June 2020 and June 2024 reveals several regions of the country that have attracted new residents over the past four years. Idaho led the charge with positive domestic net migration of 4.5%, meaning that the total number of people that moved to Idaho from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left, constituted 4.5% of the state’s June 2024 population.
And South Carolina – with a thriving economy, a robust job market, and plenty of affordable living – came in a close second, with a net domestic migration increase of 3.5%. Several other Southeastern states also saw a net inflow of relocators – including Tennessee (2.0%), Alabama (0.7%), Georgia (0.5%), Florida (2.4%), and North Carolina (2.1%).
To uncover local trends driving South Carolina’s net migration growth we analyzed the quarterly cumulative migration to several of the state’s largest CBSAs, focusing on the period between Q1 2020 and Q2 2024.
Of the CBSAs analyzed, Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach saw the most significant influx of new residents – with a whopping 12.9% cumulative net migration as of Q2 2024. With a low cost of living, a vibrant job market, and plenty of access to the outdoors, it may come as no surprise that Myrtle Beach has become the nation’s fastest-growing city and most popular relocation hotspot. The CBSA is also home to The Grand Strand – a collection of unique communities spanning 60 miles of pristine beaches.
The Charleston-North Charleston metro area also experienced substantial cumulative migration between early 2020 and Q2 2024 (4.7%). The CBSA’s primary municipality, Charleston, has been acclaimed as a top destination for relocators, due in part to its rich history, culture, and sense of community. And like Myrtle Beach, Charleston is also on the coast.
And diving deeper into population growth patterns in South Carolina’s Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach metro area showcases the unique lifestyle that is attracting many new residents. In many regions of the country, suburban areas are experiencing the most substantial population growth. But in Myrtle Beach – and in South Carolina more generally – it is urban areas that are on the rise.
Between June 2020 and June 2024, South Carolina’s urban population grew by 4.3%, compared to 3.3% for suburban communities, and 2.3% for rural ones. Over the same period, urban areas in the Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach metro area saw a remarkable 9.9% population increase, likely driven by the popularity of hubs like Myrtle Beach and North Myrtle Beach – coveted by lovers of the year-round beach lifestyle. Still, the CBSA’s suburban and rural communities also experienced significant population growth, outperforming statewide baselines.
South Carolina is home to several metro areas seeing positive net migration, and its coastline is one of the most popular regions for new residents. Will these areas continue to see population growth? Which other parts of the country are popular for those taking on relocation?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Summer events and concerts are more than just entertainment – they drive community engagement and have a significant economic impact on local businesses.
We took a closer look at the effect of major summer events, like Lollapalooza in Chicago and Governors Ball in New York, on foot traffic to local venues.
The first Lollapalooza – a four-day music festival – took place in 1991. Chicago’s Grant Park became the event’s permanent home (at least in the United States) in 2005, drawing thousands of revelers and music fans to the park each year.
This year, the festival once again demonstrated its powerful impact on the city. On August 1st, 2024, visits to Grant Park surged by 1,313.2% relative to the YTD daily average, as crowds converged on the park to see Chappell Roan’s much-anticipated performance. And during the first three days of the event, the event drew significantly more foot traffic than in 2023 – with visits up 18.9% to 35.9% compared to the first three days of last year’s festival (August 3rd to 5th, 2023).
Lollapalooza led to a dramatic spike in visits to Grant Park – and it also attracted a different type of visitor compared to the rest of the year.
Analyzing Grant Park’s captured market with Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals that Lollapalooza attendees are more likely to belong to the “Young Professionals” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment groups than the typical Grant Park visitor.
By contrast, the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” segment group, comprising middle-class diverse families living in or near cities, made up only 6.5% of visitors during the festival, compared to 12.0% during the rest of the year.
Additionally, visitors during Lollapalooza came from areas with higher HHIs than both the nationwide baseline of $76.1K and the average for park visitors throughout the year. Understanding the demographic profile of visitors to the park during Lollapalooza can help planners and city officials tailor future events to these segment groups – or look for ways to make the festival accessible to a wider range of music lovers.
Lollapalooza’s impact on Chicago extended beyond the boundaries of Grant Park, with nearby hotels seeing remarkable surges in foot traffic. The Congress Plaza Hotel on South Michigan Avenue witnessed a staggering 249.1% rise in visits during the week of July 29, 2024, compared to the YTD visit average. And Travelodge on East Harrison Street saw an impressive 181.8% increase. These spikes reflect the festival’s draw not just for locals but for out-of-town visitors who fill hotels across the city.
The North Michigan Avenue retail corridor also enjoyed a significant increase in foot traffic during the festival, with visits on Thursday, August 1st 56.0% higher than the YTD Thursday visit average. On Friday, August 2nd, visits to the corridor were 55.7% higher than the Friday visit average. These numbers highlight Lollapalooza’s role in driving economic activity across Chicago, as festival-goers venture beyond the park to explore the city’s vibrant retail and hospitality offerings.
City parks often serve as community hubs, and Flushing Meadows Corona Park in Queens, NY, has been a major gathering point for New Yorkers. The park hosted one of New York’s most beloved summer concerts – Governors Ball – which moved from Governors Island to Flushing Meadows in 2023.
During the festival (June 9th -11th, 2024), musicians like Post Malone and The Killers drew massive crowds to the park, with visits soaring to the highest levels seen all year. On June 9th, the opening day of the festival, foot traffic in the park was up 214.8% compared to the YTD daily average, and at its height, on June 8th, the festival drew 392.7% more visits than the YTD average.
The park also hosted other big events this summer – a July 21st set by DMC helped boost visits to 185.1% above the YTD average. And the Hong Kong Dragon Boat Festival on August 3rd and 4th led to major visit boosts of 221.4% and 51.6%, respectively.
These events not only draw large crowds, but also highlight the park’s role as a space where cultural and civic life can find expression, flourish, and contribute to the health of local communities.
Analyzing changes in Flushing Meadows Corona Park’s trade area size offers insight into how far people are willing to travel for these events. During Governors Ball, for example, the park’s trade area ballooned to 254.5 square miles, showing the festival's wide appeal. On July 20th, by contrast, when the park hosted several local bands and DJs, the trade area was a much more modest 57.0 square miles.
Summer events drive community engagement, economic activity, and civic pride. Cities that invest in their parks and event hubs, fostering lively and inclusive spaces, can create lasting value for both residents and visitors, enriching the cultural and social life of urban areas.
For more data-driven civic stories, visit Placer.ai.
With summer winding down (sigh!) and undergrads nationwide heading back to campus, we dove into the data to explore consumer behavior in college towns – where students and other university-affiliated communities make up a substantial share of the overall population.
Once again, we focused our analysis on nine CBSAs dominated by the comings and goings of a university-centered community – including Ithaca, NY (Cornell University); State College, PA (Penn State); Bloomington, IN (Indiana University); Lawrence, KS (University of Kansas); College Station-Bryan, TX (Texas A&M); Columbia, MO (University of Missouri); Champaign-Urbana, IL (University of Illinois); Ann Arbor, MI (University of Michigan); and Gainesville, FL (University of Florida). How does college life impact local retail performance? And what lies ahead for popular back-to-college shopping destinations as the school year begins?
We dove into the data to find out.
Retail giants Target and Walmart have been thriving in recent months. And nowhere has this been more true than in college towns, where the two behemoths are popular destinations for college students. Nationwide, college students make up just small percentages of the chains’ customer bases. But in college towns, the picture is very different.
In Q2 2024, STI: Landscape’s “Collegian” segment – a group encompassing currently enrolled college students living both on and off campus – made up a remarkable 19.4% of Target’s captured markets in the analyzed CBSAs. Though Walmart’s audiences in these cities included smaller shares of undergrads, the coveted demographic comprised an impressive 11.4% of its local captured markets.
And superstore locations in the analyzed college towns experienced higher-than-average YoY visit growth in Q2 – showcasing the power of this demographic to drive retail success. Target, for example, saw a 2.6% YoY increase in average monthly visits per location in college towns – compared to 1.4% nationwide. And Walmart followed a similar pattern, with average monthly visits per location up 5.8% in college towns, compared to 4.1% nationwide.
With a strong Q2 2024 under their belts, Target and Walmart both appear poised to enjoy an even stronger back-to-college shopping season. And a look at seasonal fluctuations in visits to the two retailers shows just how important the summer shopping scramble is for retailers in these CBSAs.
Nationwide, Target experiences its biggest monthly visit spike in December, when consumers throughout the country fill up their carts with holiday fare and gifts for loved ones. But in college towns, Target’s August visit spike is even bigger than its December one – as students load up on everything from dorm furniture to school supplies. Walmart, too, experiences a college-town August visit bump outpacing the one seen in the run-up to Christmas.
College students may eat many of their meals on campus – but they also frequent grocery stores, whether to pick up snacks or to buy ingredients for off-campus, home-cooked meals. And like superstores, grocery chains in college towns follow unique seasonal rhythms of their own.
Nationwide, grocery stores tend to see weekly visits peak in November and December. But in college towns, these holiday retail milestones carry less weight, as many collegians head home for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Instead, weekly grocery store foot traffic in these CBSAs reaches its high point in August, when collegians likely converge on stores all at once as they head back to campus.
And taking a closer look at value grocer Aldi – which features locations in all nine analyzed CBSAs – highlights other differences in the shopping habits of college town residents. Aldi has been crushing it in recent months, ranking high on the Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index visit growth lists throughout the summer. Like Target and Walmart, the discount supermarket enjoyed even greater visit-per-location growth in college towns than in other areas of the country.
And comparing Aldi visitation patterns in the analyzed CBSAs to those nationwide shows that in college towns, shoppers tend to do their grocery shopping later in the day. In Q2 2024, some 40.3% of visits to Aldi in college towns took place between 4:00 PM and 8:00 PM – compared to just 37.4% nationwide. And on the flip side, just 27.9% of college town Aldi visits took place in the morning, compared to 30.1% nationwide. Whether because they’re busy attending classes, or because they prefer to (ahem) sleep in, college students appear less likely than others to visit grocery stores in the morning.
Americans spend billions of dollars each year on back-to-college shopping – and this year is shaping up to be no different. For superstores and grocery chains in college towns, recent strong performance offers plenty of reason for optimism as the August shopping bonanza continues.
For more data-driven retail analyses, follow Placer.ai.
Discount and Dollar Stores as a whole had resounding success in Q2 2024. We dove into the data for Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet to take a closer look at what’s driving the recent foot traffic gains to these discount chains.
Five Below and Ollie’s have been on a growth trajectory for quite some time. In 2023, Five Below opened a company-record 205 new stores, and in fiscal Q1 2024 opened another 61 locations. Ollie’s grew its real estate footprint by 45 locations in 2023 and added 4 new stores in fiscal Q1 2024.
Ollie and Five Below’s visit growth has at least partly been fueled by their growing fleets. In Q2 2024 (April-May), Five Below and Ollie’s saw YoY visit increases of 14.0% and 17.1%, respectively.
And while both brands have plans to continue their physical-world expansions in the near future, a robust digital and social media presence also appears to be part of both Ollie’s and Five Below’s long-term strategies.
An examination of changes in visitor engagement with these two chains indicates that increasing consumer loyalty has been a significant factor for both Five Below and Ollie’s in recent years.
Five Below’s focus on recreational items appears to be a key driver of visitor frequency and visits – especially during the holidays. And visitor frequency is on the rise for the chain. In December 2021 and 2022, the share of visitors that visited Five Below at least twice during the month peaked at 18.3% and 18.2%, respectively. But in December 2023, the share of Five Below’s repeat visitors climbed to 20.1%. This could be due in part to the company’s doubling down on the Five Beyond store-in-store concept, which offers merchandise beyond the chain’s traditional $5 price-ceiling – broadening their offerings and enhancing the treasure-hunting experience. With the addition of a loyalty program next year, Five Below could expect to see an even greater share of frequent visitors.
Meanwhile, Ollie’s closeout business model and recruitment of consumers into its “army” likely encourage frequent visitation to the chain throughout the year. And still-high prices appear to have consumers visiting Ollie’s more often than in previous years, perhaps as they keep their eyes out for bargains on everyday items and home goods to help stretch their dollars.
Visits to Five Below and Ollie’s remain elevated as consumers appear hungry-as-ever for bargains on items that excite and fill everyday needs. Will foot traffic to these retailers remain strong through the second half of 2024?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Grabbing a coffee or snack at a convenience store is a time-honored road trip tradition – but increasingly, Convenience Stores (C-Stores) have also emerged as places people go out of their way to visit.
Convenience stores have thrived in recent years, making inroads into the discretionary dining space and growing both their audiences and their sales. Between April 2023 and March 2024, C-Stores experienced consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, generally outperforming Overall Retail. Unsurprisingly, C-Stores fell behind Overall Retail in November and December 2023, when holiday shoppers flocked to malls and superstores to buy gifts for loved ones. But in January 2024, the segment regained its lead, growing YoY visits even as Overall Retail languished in the face of an Arctic blast that had many consumers hunkering down at home.
C-Stores’ current strength is partially due to the significant innovation by leading players in the space: Chains like Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s are investing in both in their product offerings and in their physical venues to transform the humble C-Store from a stop along the way into a bona fide destination. Dive into the data to explore some of the key strategies helping C-Stores drive consumer engagement and stay ahead of the pack.
While chain expansion may explain some of the C-Store segment growth, a look at visit-per-location trends shows that demand is growing at the store level as well. Over the past year (April 2023 to March 2024), average visits per location on an industry-wide basis grew by 1.8%, compared to the year prior (April 2022 to 2023).
And within this growing segment, some brands are distinguishing themselves and outperforming category averages. Casey’s, for example, saw the average number of visits to each of its locations increase by 2.3% over the same time frame – while Maverik, Buc-ee’s and Rutter’s saw visits per location increase by 3.2%, 3.4% and 3.9%, respectively.
Each in its own way, Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s, are helping to transform C-Stores from pit stops where people can stretch their legs and grab a cup of coffee to destinations in and of themselves.
Midwestern gas and c-store chain Casey’s – famous for its breakfast pizza and other grab-and-go breakfast items – has emerged as a prime spot for fast food pizza lovers to grab a slice first thing in the morning. And Salt Lake City, Utah-based Maverik – which recently acquired Kum & Go and its 400-plus stores – is also establishing itself as a breakfast destination thanks to its specialty burritos and other chef-inspired creations.
Casey’s and Maverik’s popular breakfast options are likely helping the chains receive its larger-than-average share of morning visits: In Q1 2024, 16.3% of visits to Maverik and 17.5% of visits to Casey’s took place during the 7:00 AM - 10:00 AM daypart, compared to just 14.9% of visits to the wider C-Store category.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – also suggests that Casey’s and Maverik’s have opened stores in locations that allow them to reach their target audience. Compared to the average consumer, residents of Casey’s potential market are 7% more likely to be “Fast Food Pizza Lovers” than both the average consumer and the average C-Store trade area resident. Residents of Maverik’s potential market are 16% more likely than the average consumer to be “Mexican Food Enthusiasts,” compared to residents of the average C-Store’s trade area who are only 1% more likely to fall into that category.
With both chains expanding, Casey’s and Maverik can hope to introduce new audiences to their unique breakfast options and solidify their hold over the morning daypart within the C-Store space over the next few years.
Everything is said to be bigger in the Lone Star State, and Texas-based convenience store chain Buc-ee’s – holder of the record for the worlds’ largest C-Store – is no exception. With a unique array of specialty food items and award-winning bathrooms, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a well-known tourist attraction. And the popular chain’s status as a visitor hotspot is reflected in two key metrics.
First, Buc-ee’s attracts a much greater share of weekend visits than other convenience store chains. In Q1 2024, 39.6% of visits to Buc-ee’s took place on the weekends, compared to just 28.3% for the wider C-Store industry. And second, Buc-ee’s captured markets feature higher-than-average shares of family-centric households – including those belonging to Experian: Mosaic’s Suburban Style, Flourishing Families, and Promising Families segments.
Rather than merely a place to stop on the way to work, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a favored destination for families and for people looking for something fun to do on their days off.
Buc-ee’s isn’t the only C-Store chain that believes bigger is better. Pennsylvania-based Rutter’s is increasing visits and customer dwell time by expanding its footprint – both in terms of store count and venue size. New stores will be 10,000 to 12,000 square feet – significantly larger than the industry average of around 3,100 square feet. And in more urban areas, where space is at a premium, the company is building upwards.
Rutter’s added a second floor to one of its existing locations in York, PA in December 2023. The remodel, which was met with enthusiasm by customers, provided additional seating for up to 30 diners, a beer cave, and an expanded wine selection. And in Q1 2024, the location experienced 15.6% YoY visit growth – compared to a chainwide average of 7.6%. Visitors to the newly remodeled Rutter’s also stayed significantly longer than they did pre-renovation. The share of extended visits to the store (longer than ten minutes) grew from 20.8% in Q1 2023 to 27.0% in Q1 2024 – likely from people browsing the chain’s selection of beers or grabbing a bite to eat.
Convenience stores are flourishing, transforming into some of the most exciting dining and tourist destinations in the country. Today, C-Store customers can expect to find brisket sandwiches, gourmet coffees, or craft beers, rather than the stale cups of coffee of old. And the data shows that customers are receptive to these innovations, helping drive the segment’s success.
