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When consumers get cautious, off-price gets busy. And as shoppers continued trading down in Q1 2026 amid rising gas prices and tariff-driven uncertainty, Ross Dress for Less stood out as a top performer, capturing demand from consumers seeking the deepest discounts.
Off-price’s momentum is most visible in its widening lead over department stores. The category captured 65.7% of combined visit share in Q1 2026, up from 62.2% in Q1 2025 and just 56.2% in Q1 2022. These steady, multi-year gains underscore a structural shift in where consumers are choosing to shop – one that continues to accelerate as value becomes a central decision driver.
While part of off-price’s growth stems from ongoing fleet expansions – even as department stores shrink their footprints – the data also points to steady, and in some cases rising, same-store performance.
Ross Dress for Less, for example, has seen double-digit same-store visit gains in recent months, consistent with its most recent earnings report of a 9% year-over-year (YoY) increase in comparable sales, primarily driven by traffic. Its no-frills, ultra-low pricing often undercuts the rest of the off-price segment – making it particularly attractive in today’s increasingly needs-based shopping environment. And with no e-commerce channel to divert demand, every transaction runs through the chain’s physical stores.
At Marshalls and TJ Maxx, the core strategy remains what it has always been: opportunistic buying at scale paired with a slightly more elevated treasure-hunt experience that keeps customers coming back. And in Q1, the banners delivered low single-digit overall visit growth, with modest gains in visits per location.
Performance, however, was uneven across the quarter. After a February lift – helped in part by easier comparisons – March same-store traffic turned slightly negative, reflecting both a calendar shift (one fewer Saturday) and broader consumer caution. That softness largely continued into April, though TJ Maxx saw a modest 0.4% YoY uptick. Marmaxx's higher price points and more brand-forward assortment likely make it more sensitive to discretionary pullbacks than Ross – while its e-commerce presence could also be absorbing demand as higher gas prices shift some shopping online.
Even so, Marmaxx remains in a position of structural strength. Its network of more than 1,400 buyers sourcing from over 21,000 vendors worldwide provides unmatched flexibility – particularly as tariff-related disruptions push excess inventory into the market. And as consumer sentiment rebounds, traffic growth is likely to follow.
Burlington, meanwhile, posted an 7.7% overall increase in visits in Q1, largely driven by its rapidly expanding store base, even as per-location traffic declined 2.1% YoY.
The company’s elevation strategy – focused on improving assortment quality with more recognizable brands and higher quality products – has delivered solid results in recent quarters. But with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending, the elevated assortment may be temporarily finding a smaller audience – a dynamic likely amplified by Burlington’s more value-oriented customer base compared to peers.
Still, Burlington’s positioning leaves it well placed to regain momentum when conditions stabilize. And given the current environment, strong overall traffic growth coupled with modest same-store declines represents a relatively resilient performance.
When economic pressure builds, off-price tends to win. And though Ross may be leading the pack today, Marmaxx and Burlington are both well positioned to regain strong traffic momentum as conditions evolve. With consumer confidence still strained and excess inventory likely to remain plentiful, the structural tailwinds supporting off-price remain firmly in place.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Overall visits to U.S. grocery stores rose 1.7% year over year (YoY) in Q1 2026, extending a streak of growth that now spans four consecutive quarters. At the category level, most of this growth was driven by expansion, as the average number of visits per location remained essentially flat YoY.
Still, a deeper look at the data reveals meaningful variation across segments and regions, shedding light on the dynamics shaping grocery traffic in 2026.
Grocery visit growth has been positive in every quarter over the past year, peaking at 3.3% YoY in Q4 before moderating to 1.7% in Q1 2026. Per-location visits, however, lagged overall growth throughout the analyzed period, increasing just 0.2% YoY in Q1 2026.
The takeaway? New store openings, rather than stronger performance from existing locations, are accounting for most of the category's recent visit gains.
That said, the combination of ongoing expansion and steady performance at existing locations points to resilient underlying demand. Even as mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, and e-commerce players compete for share, dedicated grocery stores remain a fundamentally durable format.
The relatively flat nationwide per-location performance also masks some regional variation. Several statewide markets – including Montana, Colorado, Maine, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Indiana – saw per-location visit growth exceeding 2.0% YoY in Q1 2026.
This divergence suggests that local dynamics, ranging from population growth and suburban expansion to competitive intensity and store rollout strategies, are playing a role in shaping performance. In other words, while national trends appear stable, grocery remains a highly localized business where market-specific factors can drive outperformance.
A closer look at different grocery segments reveals further variation.
Fresh-format grocers like Trader Joe's and Sprouts led in overall visit growth, highlighting a rapidly expanding segment that is capturing a growing share of traffic while also maintaining solid YoY visit performance at existing stores. Value grocers also saw expansion-driven gains, though per-location traffic was softer at -2.8% YoY. And though traditional grocery chains have not been on an expansion trajectory, they slightly outperformed fresh-format players on a per-location basis, with visits up 1.5% YoY. For a segment that has lagged peers for several quarters, this represents notable improvement.
What's behind traditional groceries’ emerging store-level strength?
One explanation may be traditional grocers' success in capturing the short trip – the fastest-growing type of grocery visit. Whether driven by curbside pickup or quick fill-in runs for a few missing items or an inexpensive prepared lunch, these visits are becoming increasingly common. And a look at relative category-wide visit share shows that traditional grocers are the only grocery segment over-indexing on sub-10 minute visits, capturing a greater share of short visits than of overall grocery traffic in Q1 2026.
This suggests that habit, proximity, and assortment breadth may matter more than price positioning when a shopper just needs a few items fast. Traditional grocery shoppers may also be more likely than value-oriented shoppers to use curbside pickup – a service that may come with markups or additional fees – while fresh and specialty shoppers may be more inclined to browse in-store.
The Q1 2026 grocery landscape is defined by steady but uneven growth. New store expansion is fueling topline gains, while performance varies across regions and formats. At the same time, the rise of short, convenience-driven trips is subtly reshaping the competitive landscape – favoring retailers that can deliver speed, accessibility, and consistency over those competing primarily on price or experiential differentiation.
So is traditional grocery making a comeback? Not in the sense of reclaiming overall growth leadership. But in some of the areas that increasingly matter, traditional grocers are carving out a durable and defensible role.
Will traditional grocery retailers continue to thrive as the year wears on? Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Warehouse clubs continue to benefit from their strong value proposition, sustaining meaningful visit growth even amid macro uncertainty. And elevated fuel prices are adding another tailwind, driving increased traffic to wholesale club gas stations. Leveraging location intelligence, we examined recent performance for Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club.
Recent visit data for BJ’s, Costco, and Sam’s Club reveals how the warehouse club model continues to resonate with consumers. All three chains sustained year-over-year (YoY) visit growth over the past six months, and while growth moderated briefly in March 2026, a rebound in April suggests the slowdown was more calendar-driven than demand-driven. March 2026 included one fewer Saturday than the prior year – a small shift that can have a significant impact on time-rich retail formats.
Real estate strategy also emerged as a key factor shaping traffic trends across the three wholesalers. Costco and BJ’s both saw gains in overall visits alongside same-store growth, indicating that performance was supported by a combination of new unit expansion and growing demand at existing locations. Costco added 15 domestic warehouses in fiscal 2025 and appears on track for a similar pace in fiscal 2026, while BJ's opened seven clubs in fiscal 2025 and and is signaling a more aggressive expansion over the next two years, including its recent entry into the Dallas-Fort Worth market.
Sam's Club, by contrast, added just one new location in its fiscal 2026 (ended January 2026) while completing 14 remodels – pointing to a strategy centered on optimizing its existing footprint. This emphasis is reflected in the close alignment between overall and same-store visits, suggesting that growth is being driven primarily by improvements within the current store base. Still, Sam’s Club’s pipeline includes at least one upcoming opening, which could indicate a gradual shift toward expansion – potentially blending its optimization strategy with the unit growth that has supported momentum for its peers.
Beyond the traffic inside wholesale clubs, an equally notable story is unfolding at their gas stations. As the chart below shows, visits to BJ’s Gas, Costco Gas, and Sam’s Club Fuel accelerated in early March 2026, aligning with a sharp rise in fuel prices amid the Iran War. Perhaps expectedly, this demonstrates that competitively priced fuel is a meaningful traffic driver during periods of elevated gas prices – reinforcing the value proposition of warehouse club memberships. If fuel prices remain high, members may be more inclined to consolidate shopping trips around fuel fill-ups, potentially boosting both gas station traffic and in-club spending.
Diving deeper into March and April visitor patterns offer further perspective into how fuel prices are influencing wholesale club member behavior. Across all three wholesale gas chains, the share of visitors who visited at least twice rose in both March and April 2026 compared to 2025.
Rising visit frequency suggests that increased traffic is not being driven by one-time responses to pricing pressure. Instead, higher fuel prices appear to be prompting members to consistently shift a greater share of their fuel spend into the wholesale ecosystem.
And more frequent fill-ups increase the likelihood that gas trips are paired with in-club shopping, suggesting that habits formed in response to pricing dynamics at the pump may ultimately drive increases in visit frequency and in-store spend.
In the wholesale club space, core value perception is sustaining steady visit growth, while elevated fuel prices are amplifying that advantage by driving incremental traffic and frequent visits to gas stations.
In this context, wholesale fuel is transforming club-member behavior and has the potential to drive deeper, long-term engagement with the retailers as a whole.
Will these trends continue in the months ahead? Check back in with The Anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Brick-and-mortar retail foot traffic continues to demonstrate notable resilience despite rising gas prices and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, with April 2026 marking the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) gains. March's relative softness now looks like the product of calendar shifts rather than the start of a structural decline – retail visits essentially held last year's levels despite one fewer Saturday and store closures for Easter. And April's subsequent rebound reinforces that underlying consumer demand remains intact, with shoppers continuing to show up to physical stores even as they contend with elevated prices at the pump and an uncertain economic backdrop.
But the real star of April's consumer data was Placer's Ecommerce Distribution Index, which registered a massive 20.5% YoY increase in foot traffic, following an already strong 16.3% gain in March – likely driven in part by elevated gas prices nudging some consumers online.
The traffic data indicates that both physical and digital retail grew simultaneously despite historically weak consumer sentiment – suggesting that consumers are saying one thing and doing another, and that underlying demand may be more durable than the headlines suggest.
Meanwhile, manufacturing foot traffic came under renewed pressure in April 2026 following two months of tentative stabilization. This softness in physical activity persists despite a wave of headline-grabbing investment announcements: private-sector U.S. manufacturing commitments have surpassed $1.6 trillion and Q1 2026 industrial net absorption rose 52% YoY, the strongest start to a year since 2023. The disconnect reflects a fundamental shift underway – leasing demand is increasingly concentrated in automation-ready, high-clearance facilities, meaning more square footage is being absorbed with fewer workers walking through the door.
For more retail and CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Fast casual extended its winning streak into April 2026, while shifting visit durations across all restaurant formats point to deeper changes in how consumers are choosing to dine.
April 2026 marked another month of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth for fast casual, with traffic rising 1.9% compared to April 2025. The consistency of that trend – visible in the chart below – speaks to the ongoing strength of the segment’s value perception as consumer sentiment declines and energy costs spike – putting pressure on household budgets. Consumers continue to weigh quality and experience against price, and fast casual – sitting between the affordability of QSR and the elevated cost of full-service – keeps clearing that bar. This could also explain the slight decline in QSR visits – for the second consecutive month – which may be reflecting rising prices that are narrowing the gap with fast casual and prompting some consumers to trade up.
Full service restaurants, meanwhile, saw their visit gap improve following March's 4.8% YoY decline – which may indicate that March's dramatic decrease may have been due to calendar shifts rather than to a sharp drop in demand. (March 2025 had five Saturdays compared to March 2026's four, which likely hurt full-service's total monthly traffic last month.) The return to modest dips suggests that, while underlying demand is facing broader macro headwinds, the pressure is less severe than last month’s outsized drop implied.
Beyond visit counts, April 2026 brought a slight shift in visit duration. Mid-length visits (10 to 30 minutes) grew their share YoY across all three segments, while the share of very short visits (under 10 minutes) declined for QSR and fast-casual and the share of longer visits (30+ minutes) fell for all three categories.
For QSR, the 10 to 30 minute visit bucket grew from 30.2% of visits in April 2025 to 31.2% in April 2026 – a meaningful shift for a segment where speed is a core value. This could reflect consumers skipping the drive-thru, and opting to park and dine-in instead, as fuel costs make idling a less economical proposition.
Fast casual visits revealed a similar pattern, as mid-length visits in the segment edged up from 34.2% in April 2025 to 35.4% in April 2026. Given that fast casual is already designed for a more relaxed dining pace than QSR, the uptick in mid-length visits might reflect a combination of factors – consumers leaning into the sit-down experience, and slightly longer wait times as the segment's sustained popularity pressures throughput.
Meanwhile, full-service visits saw a decline in the share of longer visits (30+ minutes) while the share of both short and mid-length visits increased – though longer visits still lead in overall share. Lighter checks, smaller parties, or a more purposeful approach to dining occasions could all be contributing factors.
Fast casual's sustained outperformance and the industry-wide shift toward mid-length visits both point in the same direction: consumers are engaging more selectively with dining, and the segments and brands that offer a compelling experience are pulling ahead.
For more dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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In April 2026, Home Depot's five-day return-to-office mandate took effect for corporate employees – the latest addition to a growing list of major employers requiring more in-person presence. What does the latest data reveal about the pace of recovery on the ground?
Nationwide office visits landed 29.1% below April 2019 levels in April 2026 – a slight improvement compared to April 2025. While this marks continued progress, the pace of recovery was more measured than in March, which saw a 4.2 percentage point gain when controlling for the number of working days. (April 2025 and April 2026 had the same number of working days, offering a clean basis for comparison).
Alongside the growing wave of mandates, a survey from MyPerfectResume early this year found that just 7% of employees would quit outright over a mandatory RTO policy in 2026 – down from 51% in January 2025. The shift reflects a labor market that has continued to soften, leaving workers with less leverage to push back on policies they might have resisted just a year ago.
On the other side of the ledger, rising gas prices introduced a meaningful counterweight in April, with the national average surpassing $4.00 per gallon for the first time since 2022. For daily commuters already reassessing the cost of in-office work, a jump of more than $1.00 per gallon in a single month is a significant headwind – and likely one factor behind the slower pace of gains.
Looking across eleven major office markets, nearly all posted modest YoY visit growth, led again by West Coast hubs Los Angeles and San Francisco. Once viewed as a persistent laggard, San Francisco’s AI-powered recovery has helped it avoid the bottom spot for several months running. And as the city’s narrative continues shifting from “doom loop” to “boom loop,” it is likely to keep gaining ground in the months ahead.
Denver, on the other hand, finished last in April across both measures – down 45.3% versus April 2019 and 1.1% from a year ago. With one of the most remote-friendly labor markets in the country and downtown office vacancy still hovering around 38%, the city is increasingly leaning on alternative strategies such as office-to-residential conversions to revive its urban core. Still, prime and Class A buildings remain a bright spot, as employers look to draw workers back with higher-quality spaces and perks rather than mandates alone – and as these efforts gain traction, Denver could begin to narrow the gap.
April’s data reinforces a familiar theme: The return to office remains non-linear, marked by steady but uneven progress. Mandates continue to accumulate and employer leverage has strengthened compared to last year, helping push attendance higher. But rising gas prices are adding friction – and the gap between the nation’s strongest and weakest office markets remains wide.
For more data-driven RTO reports follow Placer.ai/anchor.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
This white paper delves into location analytics across six major hotel categories – Luxury Hotels, Upper Upscale Hotels, Upscale Hotels, Upper Midscale Hotels, Midscale Hotels, and Economy Hotels – to explore the current state of the American hospitality market. The report examines changes in guest behavior, personas, and characteristics and looks at factors driving current visitation trends.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
As mid-range hotels that still offer a broad range of amenities, Upper Midscale chains strike a balance between indulgence and affordability. And perhaps unsurprisingly, hotel operators have been investing in this tier: In Q4 2023, Upper Midscale Hotels had the highest project count of any tier in the U.S. hotel construction and renovation pipeline.
The shift in favor of Upper Midscale Hotels and away from Economy chains is also evident when analyzing changes in relative visit share among the six hotel categories.
Upper Midscale hotels have always been major players: In H1 2019 they drew 28.7% of overall hotel visits – the most of any tier. But by H1 2024, their share of visits increased to 31.2%. Upscale Hotels – the second-largest tier – also saw their visit share increase, from 24.8% to 26.1%.
Meanwhile, Economy, Midscale, and Upper Upscale Hotels saw drops in visit share – with Economy chains, unsurprisingly, seeing the biggest decline. Luxury Hotels, for their parts, held firmly onto their piece of the pie, drawing 2.8% of visits in H1 2024.
Who are the visitors fueling the Upper Midscale visit revival? This next section explores shifts in visitor demographics to four Upper Midscale chains that are outperforming pre-pandemic visit levels: Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, Fairfield by Marriott, and Hampton by Hilton.
Analyzing the captured markets* of the four chains with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Much of the Upper Midscale visit growth is being driven by chain expansion. But in some areas of the country, the average number of visits to individual hotel locations is also on the rise – highlighting especially robust growth potential.
Analyzing visits to existing Upper Midscale chains in four metropolitan areas with booming tourism industries – Salt Lake City, UT, Palm Bay, FL, San Diego, CA, and Richmond, VA – shows that these markets feature robust untapped demand.
Utah, for example, has emerged as a tourist hotspot in recent years – with millions of visitors flocking each year to local destinations like Salt Lake City to see the sights and take in the great outdoors. And Upper Midscale hotels in the region are reaping the benefits. In H1 2024, the overall number of visits to Upper Midscale chains in Salt Lake City was 69.4% higher than in H1 2019. Though some of this increase can be attributed to local chain expansion, the average number of visits to each individual Upper Midscale location in the area also rose by 12.5% over the same period.
Palm Bay, FL (the Space Coast) – another tourist favorite – is experiencing a similar trend. Between H1 2019 and H1 2024, overall visits to local Upper Midscale hotel chains grew by 36.4% – while the average number of visits per location increased a substantial 16.9%. Given this strong demand, it may come as no surprise that the area is undergoing a hotel construction boom. Upper Midscale hotels in other areas with flourishing tourism sectors, like San Diego, CA and Richmond, VA, are seeing similar trends, with increases in both overall visits and and in the average number of visits per location.
Though Economy chains have underperformed versus other categories in recent years, the tier does feature some bright spots. Some extended-stay brands in the Economy tier – hotels with perks and amenities that cater to the needs of longer-stay travelers – are succeeding despite category headwinds.
Choice Hotels’ portfolio, for example, includes WoodSpring Suites, an Economy chain offering affordable extended-stay accommodations in 35 states. In H1 2024, the chain drew 7.7% more visits than in the first half of 2019 – even as the wider Economy sector continued to languish. InTown Suites, another Economy extended stay chain, saw visits increase by 8.9% over the same period.
And location intelligence shows that the success of these two chains is likely being driven, in part, by their growing appeal to young, well-educated professionals. In H1 2019, households belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Young Professionals” segment made up 9.6% of WoodSpring Suites’ captured market. But by H1 2024, the share of this group jumped dramatically to 13.3%. At the same time, InTown Suites saw its share of Young Professionals increase from 12.0% to 13.4%.
Whether due to an affinity for prolonged “workcations” (so-called “bleisure” excursions) or an embrace of super-commuting, younger guests have emerged as key drivers of growth for the extended stay segment. And by offering low–cost accommodations that meet the needs of these travelers, Economy chains can continue to grow their share of the pie.
The hospitality industry recovery continues – led by Upper Midscale Hotels, which offer elevated experiences that don’t break the bank. But today’s market has room for other tiers as well. By keeping abreast of local visitation patterns and changing consumer profiles, hotels across chain scales can personalize the visitor experience and drive customer satisfaction.
The past few years have provided the tourism sector with a multitude of headwinds, from pandemic-induced lockdowns to persistent inflation and a rise in extreme weather events. But despite these challenges, people are more excited than ever to travel – more than half of respondents to a recent survey are planning on increasing their travel budgets in the coming months.
And while revenge travel to overseas destinations is still very much alive and well, the often high costs associated with traveling abroad are shaping the way people choose to travel. Domestic travel and tourism are seeing significant growth as more affordable alternatives.
This white paper takes a closer look at two of the most popular domestic tourism destinations in the country – New York City and Los Angeles. Over the past year, both cities have continued to be leading tourism hotspots, offering a wealth of attractions for visitors. What does tourism to these two cities look like in 2024, and what has changed since before the pandemic? How have inflation and rising airfare prices affected the demographics and psychographics of visitors to these major hubs?
Analyzing the distribution of domestic tourists across CBSAs nationwide from May 2023 to April 2024 reveals New York and Los Angeles to be two of the nation’s most popular destinations. (Tourists include overnight visitors staying in a given CBSA for up to 31 days).
The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro area drew the largest share of domestic tourists of any CBSA during the analyzed period (2.7%), followed closely by the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA CBSA (2.5%). Other domestic tourism hotspots included Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (tied for second place with 2.5% of visitors), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (1.9%), Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (1.8%), Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (1.8%), and Chicago-Naperville, Elgin, IL-IN-WI (1.6%).
The Big Apple. The City That Never Sleeps. Empire City. Whatever it’s called, New York City remains one of the most well-known tourist destinations in the world. And for many Americans, New York is the perfect place for an extended weekend getaway – or for a multi-day excursion to see the sights.
But where do these NYC-bound vacationers come from? Diving into the data on the origin of visitors making medium-length trips to New York City (three to seven nights) reveals that increasingly, these domestic tourists are coming from nearby metro areas.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, for example, the number of tourists visiting New York City from the Philadelphia metro area increased by 19.2%.
The number of tourists coming from the Boston and Washington, D.C metro areas, and from the New York CBSA itself (New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA) also increased over the same period.
Meanwhile, further-away CBSAs like San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL fed fewer tourists to NYC in 2023-2024 than they did pre-pandemic. It seems that residents of these more distant metro areas are opting for vacation destinations closer to home to avoid the high costs of air travel.
Diving even deeper into the characteristics of visitors taking medium-length trips to New York City reveals another demographic shift: Tourists staying between three and seven nights in the Big Apple are skewing younger.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of visitors to New York City from areas with median ages under 30 grew from 2.1% to 4.5%. Meanwhile, the share of visitors from areas with median ages between 31 and 40 increased from 34.3% to 37.7%.
The impact of this trend is already being felt in the Big Apple, with The Broadway League reporting that the average age of audiences to its shows during the 2022- 2023 season was the youngest it had been in 20 seasons.
The shift towards younger tourists can also be seen when examining the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular attractions in New York City. Analyzing the captured markets of major NYC landmarks with data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals an increase in households belonging to the “Educated Urbanites” segment between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024.
These well-educated, young singles are increasingly visiting iconic NYC venues such as the Whitney Museum of American Art, The Metropolitan Museum of Art, The American Museum of Natural History, and the Statue of Liberty. This shift highlights the growing popularity of these attractions among young, educated singles, reflecting a broader trend of increased domestic tourism among this demographic.
New York City’s tourism sector is adapting to meet the changing needs of travelers, fueled increasingly by younger visitors who may be unable to take a costly international vacation. How have travel patterns to Los Angeles changed in response to increasing travel costs?
While New York City is the East Coast’s tourism hotspot, Los Angeles takes center stage on the West Coast. And as overseas travel has become increasingly out of reach for Americans with less discretionary income, the share of domestic tourists originating from areas with lower HHIs has risen.
Before the pandemic, 57.6% of visitors to LA came from affluent areas with median household incomes (HHIs) of over $90K/year. But by 2023-2024, this share decreased to 50.7%. Over the same period, the share of visitors from areas with median HHIs between $41K and $60K increased from 9.7% to 12.5%, while the share of visitors from areas with HHIs between $61K and $90K rose from 32.1% to 35.8%.
Diving into the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular Los Angeles attractions – Universal Studios Hollywood, Disneyland California, the Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory – also reflects the above-mentioned shift in HHI. The captured markets of these attractions had higher shares of middle-income households belonging to the “Family Union” psychographic segment in 2023-2024 than in 2018-2019.
Experian: Mosaic defines this segment as “middle income, middle-aged families living in homes supported by solid blue-collar occupations.” Pre-pandemic, 16.0% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from trade areas with high shares of “Family Union” households. This number jumped to 18.8% over the past year. A similar trend occurred at Disneyland, Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory.
And like in New York City, growing numbers of visitors to Los Angeles appear to be coming from nearby areas. Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of in-state visitors to major Los Angeles attractions increased substantially – as people likely sought to cut costs by keeping things local.
Pre-pandemic, for example, 68.9% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from within California – a share that increased to 72.0% over the past year. Similarly, 59.7% of Griffith Observatory visitors in 2018-2019 came from within the state – and by 2023-2024, that number grew to 64.7%.
Even when times are tight, people love to travel – and New York and Los Angeles are two of their favorite destinations. With prices for airfare, hotels, and dining out increasing across the board, younger and more price-conscious households are adapting, choosing to visit nearby cities and enjoy attractions closer to home. And as the tourism industry continues its recovery, understanding emerging visitation trends can help stakeholders meet travelers where they are.
The positive retail momentum observed in Q1 2024 continued into Q2 – as stabilizing prices and a strong job market fostered cautious optimism among consumers. Year-over-year (YoY) retail foot traffic remained elevated throughout the quarter, with June in particular seeing significant weekly visit boosts ranging from 4.7% to 8.5%.
The robustness of the retail sector in Q2 was also highlighted by positive visit growth during the quarter’s special calendar occasions, including Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th) and Memorial Day (the week of May 27th). And though consumer spending may moderate as the year wears on, retail’s strong Q2 showing offers plenty of room for optimism ahead of back-to-school sales and other summer milestones.
On a quarterly basis, overall retail visits rose 4.2% in Q2. And diving into specific categories shows that value continued to reign supreme, with discount and dollar stores seeing the most robust YoY visit growth (11.2%) of any analyzed category.
Other essential goods purveyors, such as grocery store chains (7.6%) and superstores (4.6%), also outperformed the overall retail baseline. And fitness – a category deemed essential by many health-conscious consumers – outpaced overall retail with a substantial 6.0% YoY foot traffic increase.
The decidedly more discretionary home improvement industry performed less well than overall retail in Q2 – but in another sign of consumer resilience, it too experienced a YoY visit uptick. And overall restaurant foot traffic increased 2.6% YoY.
Discount and dollar stores enjoyed a strong Q2 2024, maintaining YoY visit growth above 10.0% for six out of the quarter’s 13 weeks. Only during the week of April 1st did the category see a temporary decline, likely the result of an Easter calendar shift. (The week of April 1st 2024 is being compared to the week of April 3rd, 2023, which included the run-up to Easter)
Some of this growth can be attributed to the continued expansion of segment leaders like Dollar General. But the category has also been bolstered by the emphasis consumers continue to place on value in the face of still-high prices and economic uncertainty.
Dollar General, which has been expanding both its store count and its grocery offerings, saw YoY visits increase between 9.1% and 15.9% throughout the quarter. Affordable-indulgence-oriented Five Below, which has also been adding locations at a brisk clip, saw YoY visits increase between 4.9% and 18.8%.
And though Dollar Tree has taken steps to rightsize its Family Dollar brand, the company’s eponymous banner – which caters to middle-income consumers in suburban areas – continued to grow both its store count and its visits in Q2.
Grocery store chains also performed well in Q2 2024 – experiencing strongly positive foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. Though the sector continues to face its share of challenges, stabilizing food-at-home prices and improvements in employee retention and supply chain management have helped propel the industry forward.
Diving into the performance of specific chains shows that within the grocery segment, too, price was paramount in Q2 2024 – with limited-assortment value grocery stores like Aldi and Trader Joe’s leading the way.
Traditional chains H-E-B and Food Lion (owned by Ahold Delhaize) – both of which are known for relatively low prices – outperformed the wider grocery sector with respective YoY foot traffic boosts of 11.4% and 8.7%. But ShopRite, Safeway (owned by Albertsons), Kroger, and Albertsons also drew more visits in Q2 2024 than in the equivalent period of last year.
Fitness has proven to be relatively inflation-proof in recent years – thriving even in the face of reduced discretionary spending and consumer cutbacks. Indeed, rising prices may have actually helped boost gym attendance, as people sought to squeeze the most value out of their monthly fees and replace pricy outings with already-paid-for gym excursions.
And despite lapping a remarkably strong 2023, visits to gyms nationwide remained elevated YoY in Q2 2024.
Diving into the data for some of the nation’s leading gyms shows that today’s fitness market has plenty of room at the top. Planet Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, Life Time Fitness, Orangetheory Fitness, and LA Fitness all experienced YoY visit growth in Q2 2024 – reflecting consumers’ enduring interest in all things wellness-related.
But it was EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness – two value gyms that have been pursuing aggressive expansion strategies – that really hit it out of the park, with respective YoY foot traffic increases of 23.4% and 21.4%.
The week of April 1st saw a decline in YoY visits to superstores – likely attributable to the Easter calendar shift noted above. But the category quickly rallied, and with back-to-school shopping and major superstore sales events coming up this July, the category appears poised to enjoy continued success throughout the summer.
Within the superstore category, wholesale clubs continued to stand out – with Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club enjoying YoY foot traffic growth ranging from 12.0% to 7.4%. But Target and Walmart also impressed with 4.6% and 4.0% YoY visit increases.
Inflation, elevated interest rates, and a sluggish real estate market have created a perfect storm for the home improvement industry, with spending on renovations in decline. The accelerated return to office has likely also taken its toll on the category, as people spend more time outside the home and have less availability to immerse themselves in DIY projects.
But despite these challenges, weekly YoY foot traffic to home improvement and furnishing chains remained elevated throughout much of the Q2 – with June and April seeing mostly positive YoY visit growth, and May hovering just below 2023 levels. This (modest) visit growth may be driven by consumers loading up on supplies for necessary home repairs, or by shoppers seeking materials for smaller projects. And given the importance of Q2 for the home improvement sector, this largely positive snapshot may offer some promise of good things to come.
Some chains within the home improvement category continued to perform especially well in Q2 2024 – with rapidly expanding, budget-oriented Harbor Freight Tools leading the pack. But Ace Hardware, Menards, The Home Depot, and Lowe’s also saw foot traffic increases in Q2, showcasing the category’s resilience in the face of headwinds.
Restaurants – including full-service restaurants (FSR), quick-service restaurants (QSR), fast-casual chains, and coffee chains – lagged behind grocery stores and other essential goods retailers in Q2 2024, as price-sensitive consumers prioritized needs over wants and ate at home more often.
Still, YoY restaurant foot traffic remained up throughout most of the quarter. And impressively, the sector saw a YoY visit uptick during the week of Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th, 2024, compared to the week of May 8th, 2023) – an important milestone for FSR.
The restaurant industry’s YoY visit growth was felt across segments – though fast-casual and coffee chains experienced the biggest visit boosts. Like in Q1 2024, fast-casual restaurants hit the sweet spot between indulgence and affordability, outpacing QSR in the wake of fast food price hikes. And building on the positive YoY trendline that began to emerge last quarter, full-service restaurants finished Q2 2024 with a 1.4% YoY visit uptick.
Chain expansion was the name of the restaurant game in Q2 2024, with several chains that have been growing their footprints outperforming segment averages – including CAVA, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Ziggi’s Coffee, California-based Philz Coffee, Raising Cane’s, Whataburger, and First Watch. Chili’s Grill and Bar also outpaced the full-service category average, aided by the revamping of its “3 for Me” menu.
Retailers and restaurants in Q2 2024 continued to face plenty of challenges, from inflation to rising labor costs and volatile consumer confidence. But foot traffic trends across industries – including both essential goods purveyors like grocery stores and more discretionary categories like home improvement and restaurants – suggest plenty of room for cautious optimism as 2024 wears on.
