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Cautious consumer spending and aggressive discounting across the dining industry have made it increasingly difficult for fast-food brands to sustain steady foot traffic in 2025. And against this challenging backdrop, Wendy’s saw same-store visits decline 6.3% year over year (YoY) in Q3 – with the steepest drop-off occurring in September. Looking ahead, the brand faces an even tougher YoY comparison in October 2025, when it will lap the highly successful Krabby Patty Kollab that fueled an exceptional traffic surge in October 2024.
On the company’s latest earnings call, executives acknowledged that an overload of overlapping deals had left customers confused. Interim CEO Ken Cook said seeing “eight different deals at point of purchase” made it unclear what guests were coming for. The company has since adopted a “less-is-more” approach, simplifying its promotional calendar to focus on a few high-impact offerings.
And despite the continued slowdown, this simplified approach is showing early promise. On July 14th, 2025, Wendy’s introduced a can’t-miss $1 breakfast biscuit deal that let guests purchase up to five biscuits per morning with no sign-up or purchase requirements. The limited-time offer ran through late August – and even as traffic softened during other dayparts, breakfast visits between 6:00 and 10:00 AM rose 0.9% YoY in Q3, with a sharp 11.6% surge in August. Though the promotion has since ended, its success provides a blueprint for the company as it heads into the last quarter of the year.
By simplifying its value message, Wendy’s aims to ease decision fatigue and re-energize consumers around clear, compelling offers. And the success of the chain’s summer breakfast promotion suggests that this focused strategy could help restore traffic momentum in the months ahead.
For more data-driven QSR insights, explore Placer.ai's free Industry Trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Consumers continue to navigate high food costs and cautious spending, and some of the largest quick-service dining operators in the country are feeling the effects. We analyzed the visit data for leading QSR players Yum! Brands (YUM) and Restaurant Brands International (RBI) to assess their performance in the third quarter of 2025.
Yum! Brands emerged as a success story in Q1 and Q2 2025, with both visits and average visits per location showing moderate growth. That momentum has continued into Q3, with overall visits elevated by a modest 0.3% and average visits per location rising 1.3% – a strong showing in a period where the overall QSR sector has been showing signs of strain.
Taco Bell has long served as Yum! Brands’ primary U.S. growth engine, delivering 9.0% and 4.0% YoY same-store sales growth in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively. And in Q3 2025, the brand continued to thrive – though visits increased at a slightly slower pace than in Q2. Through initiatives like its $3 Y2K menu and the rollout of Live Más Cafés and specialty beverages tailored to Gen Z tastes, Taco Bell continues to balance value, nostalgia, and innovation – driving steady traffic and strengthening its connection with consumers.
The big surprises of Q3 were KFC and Pizza Hut, both of which showed meaningful improvements in foot traffic after several quarters of underperformance. At Pizza Hut, the $2-Buck Tuesday promotion that ran through most of July and August drew strong weekday crowds, helping to lift same-store visits 0.6% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, at KFC, there are early signs that the brand’s “Kentucky Fried Comeback” initiative is beginning to pay off. Same-store visits increased 1.1% YoY in Q3, a substantial improvement from Q2, when same-store sales fell 5.0% and same-store traffic declined 4.6% YoY. The return of fan-favorite menu items like Potato Wedges and Hot & Spicy Wings also appears to have helped reignite consumer enthusiasm.
Restaurant Brands International (RBI), owner of Burger King, Popeyes, Tim Hortons, and Firehouse Subs, saw visits slow in Q3 2025. Overall traffic declined 3.3% YoY, slightly more than the wider QSR category, though average visits per location outperformed QSR with a smaller 2.3% drop.
RBI’s trajectory is largely driven by Burger King, which in Q3 2025 saw traffic decline by 3.6% YoY. Still, same-store visits to BK fell only 1.8% YoY, showing the brand’s success in sustaining traffic levels in a challenging QSR landscape. Popeyes experienced a modest same-store traffic decline, while Time Hortons saw a steeper drop.
RBI’s fast-casual Firehouse Subs, however, posted YoY visit growth, with overall visits up 1.6% and same-store visits holding steady at 0.6% – impressive performance even as the chain continues to expand its unit count. Part of this strength may stem from the chain’s relatively affluent customer base – according to data from STI:PopStats, Firehouse Subs’ captured market had a median household income (HHI) of $76.3K in Q3, compared to $67.0K for Burger King, $67.8K for Popeye’s, and $68.1K for Tim Hortons.
With consumer caution reshaping dining habits, even top QSR brands are feeling the pinch. Can Yum! sustain its momentum into Q4 or will broader dining headwinds slow its pace? And will RBI’s same-store visit trajectory continue to outpace the wider segment?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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For much of the past few years, Shake Shack and Wingstop seemed unstoppable, riding the fast-casual boom with strong traffic, loyal followings, and steady expansion. But as consumer spending patterns evolve, the latest visitation data suggests both brands are entering a new phase. We took a closer look at their Q3 visitation trends to see what foot traffic trends reveal about their performance.
Diving into Shake Shack’s foot traffic reveals the story of a brand growing through expansion. Overall visits to the chain grew by 15.1% in Q3 2025, an impressive increase in a period of cooling consumer sentiment. However, same-store visits slowed slightly, suggesting that this growth is a result of a rapidly expanding fleet rather than increased visitation at existing stores.
These traffic metrics align with recent company reports – in Q2 2025, overall revenue rose 12.6% in the wake of new store openings, while same-store sales inched up just 1.8% YoY, buoyed by higher menu prices. Shake Shack’s ability to rapidly expand its fleet while maintaining essentially stable same-store foot traffic – even while raising prices – suggests that the chain’s higher-income customer base continues to see Shake Shack as an affordable indulgence even in a cautious spending climate.
Wingstop is also in expansion mode, adding stores at a brisk pace this year. But since mid-summer, overall foot traffic growth has stagnated, with Q3 showing a 2.8% YoY decline and same-store visits falling even more sharply.
Part of this drop reflects an exceptionally tough comparison to Q3 2024, when visits surged 24.2% YoY overall and 14.0% on a same-store basis. (By contrast, Shake Shack saw overall visits increase 19.1%, while same-store visits held roughly flat at -0.8% during the same period).
Wingstop’s YoY visit slowdown should also be viewed in the context of its expanding digital business – online orders rose to 72.2% of total sales in Q2 2025. The chain’s growing digital business helped deliver a stronger-than-expected Q2, which saw domestic same-store sales down just 1.9%, despite lapping 28.7% growth in Q2 2024.
The company continues to expand aggressively, adding more than 120 net new restaurants in Q2 alone. Still, Wingstop’s leadership has acknowledged that near-term volatility may be expected, given exceptionally strong comparisons to 2024 and ongoing economic uncertainty affecting its more value-conscious customers.
Against this challenging backdrop, both brands have found extra strength in specials and limited-time offers (LTOs), which continue to drive measurable visit lifts to their restaurants.
Wingstop’s positioning closer to the value end of fast-casual makes it more vulnerable to inflation fatigue – and makes short-term specials all the more appealing to its customers. Indeed, visits jumped to their highest levels all year during the week of National Chicken Wing Day (July 29, 2025), when the chain lured budget-conscious diners with a free wing promotion.
Meanwhile, Shake Shack saw visit upticks during the weeks of May 26 and June 23 – the first likely driven in part by its free ShackBurger offer on orders over $10, and the second by the return of its viral Dubai Chocolate Shake.
Together, these bursts of activity reinforce a key point: Both chains are navigating a market where consumers are more selective, but still willing to show up for the right product, price, or promotion.
Both Shake Shack and Wingstop have entered a more measured phase of growth in 2025. Expansion remains central to each brand’s strategy, but digital engagement and timely promotions are playing an increasingly important role. As consumers become more selective, balancing scale with loyalty and value will likely define the next stage of growth for each chain.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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The quick-service restaurant category has seen mixed results this past quarter, as softer consumer spending continues to pressure much of the sector. Yet the coffee subcategory continues to thrive, with much of its success coming from smaller brands.
We took a closer look at the visitation trends for the category, across major brands and smaller ones, to pinpoint where this growth is happening.
Even with consumers tightening their belts, coffee chains are holding their own. Visits to the coffee segment were up 1.4% YoY in 2025, compared to a 2.7% drop across the broader quick-service restaurant (QSR) segment.
But digging deeper into average visits per location tells a more nuanced story: Visits to individual coffee venues declined 2.9% in Q3, only slightly outperforming the 3.3% drop across the wider QSR segment. In other words, coffee’s visit growth is being powered primarily by chain expansion rather than heavier traffic to existing units. Still, the category’s ability to sustain growth amid consumer pullbacks highlights coffee’s unique staying power – an everyday indulgence that consumers seem unwilling to give up, even as other affordable dining luxuries lose steam.
Starbucks and Dunkin’ are the two largest coffee chains in the United States by wide margins – Dunkin’ recently celebrated the opening of its 10,000th store, while Starbucks boasts roughly 17,230 locations nationwide. And despite ongoing challenges in the broader QSR segment, both coffee behemoths maintained relatively stable overall visit trends in Q3 2025. Starbucks saw a modest -1.7% decline in total visits compared to 2024, while Dunkin’ visits dipped by just -0.7%.
Dunkin’, however, outperformed Starbucks on a same-store basis, holding nearly flat with just a 1.7% decline – likely reflecting its stronger value positioning. Starbucks, by contrast, saw same-store visits fall 5.2% YoY, though the return of its Pumpkin Spice Latte once again provided a substantial lift. Both brands also experienced a slowdown in September, suggesting that consumers may be pulling back on small indulgences as they shift discretionary spending toward holiday gifts and larger upcoming expenses.
Even as Starbucks and Dunkin’ anchor the national market, smaller brands are driving much of the coffee category’s momentum – including the ever-popular Oregon-based Dutch Bros. The drive-thru brand has been on a major growth streak over the past several years, adding new locations at a brisk pace with a goal of reaching 2,029 units by 2029.
In Q3 2025, total visits to Dutch Bros rose 8.8% year-over-year, while same-store visits hovered just below 2024 levels – a modest slowdown from Q2, when total visits increased 13.8% and same-store visits rose 1.9%, consistent with strong quarterly comps. Still, maintaining nearly steady traffic amid such rapid expansion points to healthy, sustained demand and strong brand loyalty, even as the chain continues its robust growth push.
The meteoric rise of several even smaller coffee chains is also fueling the category’s growth. In Q3 2025, many of these emerging players saw double-digit visit gains, signaling that expansion opportunities in the coffee space extend well beyond the established giants.
7 Brew Coffee, one of the country’s fastest-growing coffee chains, led the visit growth pack, with foot traffic up 80.4% compared to Q3 2024 and same-store visits climbing an impressive 19.4%. Better Buzz Coffee Roasters followed with visits up 72.3% and a 2.4% rise in same-store visits – suggesting that its footprint expansion is being well-received. Florida chain Foxtail Coffee was the third growth leader in Q3 2025, with visits increasing 46.8% year-over-year, reflecting its growing footprint in states like Michigan and Georgia. Meanwhile, Black Rock Coffee Bar, which made headlines with a successful IPO last month, saw visits climb 6.5%, even as same-store visits edged just under 2024 levels.
The growing strength of these regional brands – many of which, like Dutch Bros, emphasize speed and convenience through drive-thru formats – could reshape the competitive coffee landscape heading into 2026.
While the wider dining sector is contracting, the coffee space is holding firm, with small chains helping to drive much of the segment’s growth.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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As consumers continue to navigate economic pressures and many full-service dining chains face softer demand, two major players – Chili’s, under Brinker International, and Texas Roadhouse, part of Texas Roadhouse Inc. – are standing out for their ability to drive sustained traffic growth. Using location analytics, we revisit the companies’ previous performance and provide a data-driven context for what they may reveal in upcoming earnings reports.
Chili’s has emerged as a standout in full-service dining, delivering strong year-over-year (YoY) growth in both overall and same-store visits in Q2 – results consistent with Brinker’s own reporting. And with similarly elevated visit trends in Q3, management is likely to echo these results in its upcoming earnings commentary.
Texas Roadhouse also reported higher traffic and comp sales in Q2 2025, and given the YoY gains in both overall and same-store visits in Q3, the company is likely to highlight a similar trend in its upcoming results.
And while both Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse are driving strong traffic, each is pursuing growth through distinct strategies. Chili’s is focused on simplifying its menu and modernizing kitchen and dining-room technology – moves designed to improve the quality of the guest experience and boost efficiency. Texas Roadhouse, by contrast, continues to prioritize unit expansion while also rolling out a digital kitchen format to enhance operational efficiency and better support off-premise sales.
In order to offset rising costs, both Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse management have announced modest menu price increases in the near future, but the key question is how their respective customer bases will respond.
Both Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse employ a barbell pricing strategy – keeping certain menu items at accessible price points while also offering more premium options. This approach enables the brands to emphasize value during periods of economic pressure while still catering to diners splurging on celebratory experiences. Each brand, however, takes a different approach; while Chili’s embraces viral deals, Texas Roadhouse emphasizes everyday value and doesn’t run promotions.
The graph below shows that the median household income in both Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse captured trade areas is consistently below the nationwide benchmark of $79.6K per year – underscoring the importance for these brands to maintain a strong value proposition that resonates with price-sensitive diners.
Between Q3 2022 and Q3 2023, the median HHI of Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse’s visitors increased by about $1K – suggesting more resilience and the means to trade-up to higher-priced menu items among the brands’ audiences.
But between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, the rise in diners’ median HHI appears to have plateaued: Chili’s median HHI dipped slightly while Texas Roadhouse’s rose by just a couple hundred dollars. This trend indicates that both brands are currently resonating most with middle- and lower-income consumers – understandable, as Chili’s, for one, continues to emphasize its 3 For Me value play and reinforce value perception. It remains to be seen whether these brands’ strong value positioning will continue to hold appeal among lower-income diners if menu prices rise and the perceived value equation shifts – or whether they will increasingly rely on higher-income guests.
Still, a closer look at captured market household incomes by bracket shows that both chains attract significant shares of high-income diners. While the median household incomes in Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse’s captured markets remain below the nationwide benchmark, in Q3 2025 both brands were on par with the nationwide average – or even slightly over-indexed – for households earning between $100K and $150K per year.
This suggests that higher-income households already represent a meaningful share of visits to both chains – a group with the spending power to help sustain traffic and trade up to premium menu items. Targeting households with incomes up to $150K per year could further strengthen Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse’s resilience amid a potential softening in consumer spending.
Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse are both navigating a shifting dining landscape by balancing value and experience through distinct strategies. Chili’s continues to refine operations and emphasize promotions, while Texas Roadhouse leans on expansion and consistent everyday value. As economic pressures evolve, both brands’ ability to maintain strong value perceptions while engaging higher-income diners will be key to sustaining momentum and traffic resilience.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
October once marked the calm before the holiday storm, but in recent years, it has become an important launch point for seasonal promotions. And the stakes seem even higher this year as retailers aim to capture demand from price-conscious consumers; battered by inflation and wary of potential tariff-driven price hikes and product shortages. We analyzed visit patterns across several major chains that launched early-October promotions – along with activity at e-commerce distribution centers – to understand how these events shaped the opening act of the holiday retail season.
The first full week of October has become a retail battleground, as major players – Amazon, Best Buy, Target, Walmart, and Kohl’s – all rolled out overlapping promotions designed to capture early holiday demand and pull spending forward before the traditional Black Friday surge.
As the graph below shows, in-store traffic to Walmart and Target during their October 2025 sales events – which ran on the equivalent dates as in 2024 – trailed last year’s levels. Even Kohl’s, which extended its event from three days last year to four this year, experienced a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline in visits compared to the corresponding dates in 2024 – though the chain, which closed several locations over the past year, saw average visits per location hold steady at -0.8% YoY. This suggests that some shoppers may simply be cutting back, or expecting deeper discounts later in the season – particularly as tighter household budgets leave less room for discretionary spending this year.
However, Best Buy – which launched its “Techtober” event to compete directly with other major sales this October – saw visits rise 2.2% compared to the same days in 2024, when no equivalent promotion was held. This indicates that consumers were drawn both by the novelty of Best Buy’s new event and by the strong value proposition of its tech-focused deals.
Analysis of both in-store visits and activity at e-commerce distribution centers – including those operated by Amazon, Walmart, and Target – before and during the early-October promotional period offers a more nuanced view of how this window fits into the broader holiday retail season.
The graph below shows that daily foot traffic at e-commerce distribution centers – a proxy for employee and partner activity related to inventory buildup and order fulfillment – rose above average in late September 2025, ahead of the anticipated October promotions. Meanwhile, consumers appeared to be holding back on in-store visits, waiting for expected October discounts.
Then, e-commerce distribution center activity surged during the promotional period itself (October 5–12) as orders were placed and prepared for shipment, underscoring the critical online component driving the success of October sales events for retailers.
At the same time, in-store traffic at Walmart, Target, Kohl’s, and Best Buy also increased compared to late September, reaffirming consumers’ interest in potentially cost-saving hybrid shopping options and setting the tone for the rest of the holiday season.
Notably, Best Buy’s strongest surge in visits occurred during its overlap with Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days (October 7-8), suggesting that shoppers may have been cherry-picking deals across platforms – a sign that retailers can benefit from the heightened product awareness generated by concurrent sales events.
And Kohl’s largest visit surge of the promotional period occurred just after its main sales event, on October 10th. This post-sale visit surge appears to have been fueled by the chain’s Kohl’s Cash promotion, which allowed customers to earn $10 for every $50 spent during the sale and redeem it for a limited period beginning October 10th. This strategy effectively extended the impact of the sale beyond its official end date, encouraging incremental spending and driving traffic even after the core discount window had closed.
The early-October promotional window has evolved into a meaningful, multi-channel retail moment. As shoppers search for deeper discounts, early events continue to play a strategic role in-store and online.
Will these retailers turn early-season promotions into lasting momentum throughout the holidays? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth.
The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
What is driving the coffee industry’s remarkable category-wide growth? And who are the customers behind it? This white paper dives into the data to explore key factors driving foot traffic to leading coffee chains in early 2024. The report explores the demographic and psychographic characteristics of visitors to major players in the coffee space and examines strategies brands can use to make the most of the opportunity presented by a thriving industry.
One factor shaping the surge in coffee visit growth is the slow-but-sure return-to-office (RTO). Hybrid work may be the post-COVID new normal – but RTO mandates and WFH fatigue have led to steady increases in office foot traffic over the past year. And in some major hubs – including New York and Miami – office visits are back to more than 80.0% of what they were pre-pandemic.
A look at shifting Starbucks visitation patterns shows that customer journeys and behavior increasingly reflect those of office-goers. In April and May 2022, for example, 18.6% of Starbucks visitors proceeded to their workplace immediately following their coffee stop – but by 2024, this share shot up to 21.0%.
Over the same period, the percentage of early morning (7:00 to 10:00 AM) Starbucks visits lasting less than 10 minutes also increased significantly – from 64.3% in 2022 to 68.7% in 2024. More customers are picking up their coffee on the go – many of them on the way to work – rather than settling down to enjoy it on-site.
Dunkin’ is another chain that is benefiting from consumers on the go. Examining the coffee giant’s performance across major regional markets – those where the chain maintains a significant presence – reveals a strong correlation between the share of Dunkin’ visits in each state lasting less than five minutes and the chain’s local YoY trajectory.
In Wisconsin, for example, 50.9% of visits to Dunkin’ between January and May 2024 lasted less than five minutes. And Wisconsin also saw the most impressive YoY visit growth (5.9%). Illinois, Ohio, Maine, and Connecticut followed similar patterns, with high shares of very short visits and strong YoY showings.
On the other end of the spectrum lay Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, where very short visits accounted for a low share of the chain’s statewide total – under 40.% – and where visits declined YoY.
Dunkin’s success with very short visits may be driven in part by its popular app, which makes it easy for harried customers to place their order online and save time in-store. And this is good news indeed for the coffee leader – since customers using the app also tend to generate bigger tickets.
Dutch Bros.’ meteoric rise has been fueled, in part, by its appeal to younger audiences. Recently ranked as Gen Z’s favorite quick-service restaurant, the rapidly-expanding coffee chain sets itself apart with a strong brand identity built on cultivating a positive, friendly customer experience.
And Dutch Bros.’ people-centered approach is resonating especially well with singles – including young adults living alone – who may particularly appreciate the chain’s community atmosphere.
Analyzing the relative performance of Dutch Bros.’ locations across metro areas – focusing on regions where the chain has a strong local presence – shows that it performs best in areas with plenty of singles. Indeed, the share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ local captured markets is very strongly correlated with the coffee brand’s CBSA-level YoY per-location visit performance. Areas with higher concentrations of one-person households saw significantly more YoY visit growth in the first part of 2024. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
The share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ Tucson, AZ captured market, for example, stands at 33.4% – well above the nationwide baseline of 27.5%. And between January and May 2024, Tucson-area Dutch Bros. saw a 6.0% increase in the average number of visits per location. Tulsa, OK, Medford, OR, and Oklahoma City, OK – which also feature high shares of one-person households (over 30.0%) – similarly saw per-location visit increases ranging from 3.6% - 7.0%. On the flip side, Fresno, CA, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, which feature lower-than-average shares of single-person households, saw YoY per-location visit declines ranging from 1.5%-9.5%.
As Dutch Bros. forges ahead with its planned expansions, it may benefit from doubling down on this trends and focusing its development efforts on markets with higher-than-average shares of one-person households – such as university towns or urban areas with lots of young professionals.
Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE is another java winner in expansion mode. With a growth strategy focused on emerging markets with less brand saturation, BIGGBY has been setting its sights on small towns and rural areas throughout the Midwest and South. Though the chain does have locations in bigger cities like Detroit and Cincinnati, some of its most significant markets are in smaller population centers.
And a look at the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top-performing locations in early 2024 shows that they are significantly over-indexed for suburban consumers – both compared to BIGGBY as a whole and compared to nationwide baselines. (Top-performing locations are defined as those that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth between January and May 2024).
“Suburban Boomers”, for example – a Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment encompassing middle-class empty-nesters living in suburbs – comprised 10.6% of BIGGBY’s top captured markets in early 2024, compared to just 6.6% for BIGGBY’s overall. (The nationwide baseline for Suburban Boomers is even lower – 4.4%.) And Upper Diverse Suburban Families – a segment made up of upper-middle-class suburbanites – accounted for 9.6% of the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top locations, compared to just 7.2% for BIGGBY’s as a whole, and 8.3% nationwide.
Coffee has long been one of America’s favorite beverages. And java chains that offer consumers an enjoyable, affordable way to splurge are expanding both their footprints and their audiences. By leaning into shifting work routines and catering to customers’ varying habits and preferences, major coffee players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are continuing to thrive.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
