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Most chains attending the 2024 Fast Casual Executive Summit in Denver acknowledged that this year has been difficult (unless you happen to be Chipotle, CAVA, or sweetgreen). We’ve highlighted a number of the challenges restaurant operators faced this past year, including inclement weather to start the year, the restaurant value wars of 2024, encroachment from other food retail channels, and the rising cost of operating a restaurant, which has resulted in increased bankruptcies. Our data validates this stance–our data shows that the fast casual category excluding the three aforementioned chains has seen year-over-year visitation declines.
Why are these three chains outperforming? As we’ve discussed in the past, we believe it comes down to (1) innovation; and (2) operational excellence. Recently, we looked at the importance of Chipotle’s Chicken al Pastor relaunch for Q2 2024 sales trends, sweetgreen’s increase in comparable visits that was helped by the launch of Caramelized Garlic Steak as a protein option, and CAVA’s exceptionally strong visitation trends due the launch of grilled steak at the beginning of June. However, innovation is only part of the outperformance, as each of these chains have also done a great job integrating their digital ordering platforms and in-store assembly line efforts, allowing for greater customization (something consumers appear to be willing to pay a premium for) and driving some of the strongest throughput numbers we’ve observed with our data.
The executives we spoke to at this week’s event had a gameplan to overcome these challenges in 2025.
Another executive told us that the currently challenging backdrop would ultimately make chains better operators. Not every chain can be Chipotle, CAVA, or sweetgreen, but there are still a lot of their strategies that restaurants can adopt to improve their own operations.
The inaugural Shoptalk Fall event brought a new energy to Chicago this week. The smaller format event allowed us to dive deeper into the trends across the retail industry and hear from key retail players about their initiatives and innovations across the industry.
One thing that is clear, retailers are bullish about physical retail. Many retailers shared plans for store openings in 2025, and there is a real focus on creating the right types of store formats and finding locations that are in line with a brand’s consumers. We may truly be at a point of inflection from a channel perspective, and physical retail is likely to become a more important part of the equation.
There’s a real energy shift in the industry in regard to the importance of stores, and it’s refreshing to see. As the industry settles from the migration shifts of consumers during and after the pandemic, the opportunity for new stores to directly cater to these new groups of shoppers is immense.
And it’s not just about the rise of physical retail, but the stories that retailers are able to tell through their offline channels. Retailers are actively focused on ways to eliminate friction for shoppers, arm store employees with more insights and tools and create experiences that forge lasting bonds with shoppers. We heard from Wayfair, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Michaels and Studs, who all referenced that differentiating experiences are driving loyalty and fostering long-term connections with consumers. Stores are an essential part of building and retaining brand equity with consumers.
The other key theme centers around none other than the consumer. The retail industry feels more customer centric than ever before, especially as we get further away from the pandemic. Retailers and brands recognize that today, the shopper is in the driver’s seat, and many initiatives and innovations center around providing the consumer with more power and knowledge. This is why we are hearing more about "micro-merchandising". Retailers need and can enhance their relevancy by understanding the unique demographics/psychographic differences and preferences of their individual locations.
Executives at McDonald’s provided more insight into the success of June 2023's immensely popular birthday celebration for Grimace, including the Grimace Shake; they built the concept around the idea that many consumers celebrate a birthday at McDonald’s restaurants, but from there they let consumers drive the conversation around the promotion on social media.
We heard from many that word of mouth marketing is truly the key to success in retail today, and empowering consumers to share their thoughts and affinities with others in person or through social media platforms is driving engagement and adoption. Through the lens of foot traffic, we may see more consumers head to stores after hearing about them from others in their network. Marketing departments no longer consist of teams within an organization, but incorporate consumers as well.
Overall, we felt a lot of positivity from the industry about where we’re headed in the near term. As we see the slow rebound of the discretionary side of retail, new stores and innovations in the coming year and a consumer that still remains resilient despite many economic headwinds, the best might be ahead for the industry.
Americans have a love affair with stuff, and one of the hallmarks of this is the enduring strength of self-storage units. Public Storage takes the lead in overall visits, with Extra Space Storage not far behind. Looking at the Public Storage visits data, we see a clear spike in visits near the end of the month. This is due be due to housing transitions that also tend to occur with this pattern, as people prepare to move out at month’s end or conversely to pick up items for move-in at the beginning of a month.
Compared to last year, visits are generally up across most of these chains (which is partly the result of the industry consolidation trend we examined last year). The highest variance is seen with Prime Storage, a company largely based on the East Coast, but with a presence in the Midwest as well. StorageMart bought Manhattan Mini Storage in 2021 and has over 250 locations now.
In just a few months, we will be coming on the 5-year anniversary of COVID-19. During that time, we hunkered down, bought tons of athleisure, and stared at our forlorn office clothing sitting unworn in our closets. Fast forward a few years to present day and much like bootcut jeans are back in style, the pendulum is starting to veer back towards a more tailored style. This time around, the suits may not be as constricting, but there is certainly more structure to fall’s fashion than the cozy comfy sweatpants and leggings that the whole world came to embrace upon working from home. Among locations that are not multi-story or in enclosed malls, we see that Ann Taylor increased traffic to its locations in March, June, and August compared to last year, and that Polo Ralph Lauren has also seen increases in the past few months. This particular grouping of brands all has at least 30 or more locations each tracked by Placer and tend to be ubiquitous at many malls or as standalone boutiques. A recent visit to Banana Republic indicated a merchandising assortment that appeared to be more than 50% office wear in the women’s section, with blazers and tailored pants, silky shirts, and dresses ready to be accessorized with heels and some statement jewelry.
However, we are seeing even larger increases in year-over-year traffic at some of the more specialized/high-end brands, particularly in women’s contemporary that offer sharp-looking items that look just as polished at the boardroom or the PTA meeting, like the blazers at Veronica Beard or the “Effortless Pant” from Aritzia that is a smash hit on social media. The majority of this next grouping of brands got their start at department stores or specialty retailers, but with increased success, many are launching their own brick-and-mortar boutiques. Clearly, having a holy grail item that is on the fashion editors’ favorites list gives a boost to store traffic. One of the trends we are seeing is the continuation of the love for comfort everyone adopted during Covid mixed with a slightly more structured but still understated minimalist but luxe aesthetic, like COS. Theory, a wardrobe staple with its neutral color palette and streamlined silhouettes, has been generating positive year-over-year traffic during the back-to-school and fall season. Vince, also featuring rather understated and neutral basics, also saw its traffic lift for the fall season. Eileen Fisher is another interesting brand. Once regarded as clothing adapted to your mom’s generation, Gen Z is also starting to embrace it for its softness and sustainability, and it is one of the more popular brands to buy secondhand. In April of this year, Guess and WHP Global completed the acquisition of rag & bone, which has long been hailed for their on-trend jeans and boots. Time will tell what direction they will take the brand, or if they will stick with its tried-and-true New York roots.
Another brand to keep an eye on that we’re already familiar with from prestige department stores like Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, and Saks Fifth Avenue is L’Agence. This brand goes seamlessly from day to night with classics like tweed blazers, satiny tank tops, and perfectly-fitting jeans. They’ve now expanded to more stand-alone stores, including Southern California shopping meccas like Malibu and Beverly Hills. While the Malibu one just opened in late fall 2023, its traffic has been growing steadily upwards, even overtaking that of the Beverly Hills outpost of late.
One interesting thing to note is that the Malibu location attracts a higher proportion of its audience during the morning hours, whereas the Beverly Hills location gets the evening crowd. This information would be useful for staffing purposes or for knowing when to hold events.
In a dining segment that has faced more than its fair share of headwinds, The Cheesecake Factory and BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse have emerged as bright spots. We took a closer look at how the two chains have performed over the past year, and dove into some of the factors driving their success.
The full-service dining segment has seen turbulence since the pandemic, with many consumers embracing lower-cost meal options and redirecting their discretionary dollars. But the Cheesecake Factory – marked as a chain to watch this year – is one FSR that’s been particularly adept at weathering the storm. During the third quarter of 2024, visits to the chain were up 2.0% YoY, even as the wider FSR segment experienced a minor visit decline. And by continuing to offer a consistent, high-quality dining experience – while investing in staff retention to keep customer satisfaction higher than ever – the brand appears poised to continue growing its customer base.
BJ’s Restaurant & Brewhouse is another FSR chain that has been outperforming the wider segment. Like its cheesecake counterpart, BJ’s offers an especially varied menu – including its famous Pizookie dessert and a massive selection of craft beers. And after seeing a minor 1.7% YoY visit decline in Q2 2024, the chain finished out Q3 with an impressive 4.2% YoY uptick.
What’s driving the resilience of these two chains while others in the category struggle? We explored two factors driving this foot traffic success.
One factor that may be helping The Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s Restaurant drive traffic is their ability to harness the power of annual dining milestones. Special calendar days can be powerful drivers of foot traffic at restaurants, offering chains a prime opportunity to grow visits – and sales.
But the two chains experience these milestones somewhat differently. For BJ’s Restaurant, the weeks of Mother’s Day (week of May 6th) and Father’s Day (week of June 10th) drew the most traffic during the last twelve months, with visits during these holidays rising 18.2% and 14.1%, respectively, compared to an October ‘23 - September ‘24 weekly visit average.
But for The Cheesecake Factory, it was the period right after Christmas that drew the biggest crowds. During the week of December 25th, 2023, visits were up 24.5% compared to the chain’s weekly average – likely driven in part by customers eager to redeem holiday gift cards. (Last year, the chain offered a special holiday gift card promotion, which went into effect in late November). Other calendar days, like Mother’s Day, Valentine’s Day, and National Cheesecake Day (week of July 29th), also provided the restaurant with substantial visit boosts.
Another factor that may be contributing to both brands’ better-than-average performance is their appeal among higher-income consumers. Using the Experian: Mosaic dataset to analyze The Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s trade areas reveals that both chains see higher shares of wealthy families in their captured markets than in their potential markets. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base.)
Between January and September 2024, the shares of “Flourishing Families” in the Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s captured markets stood at 9.5% and 10.9%, respectively – outpacing their potential market shares. Similarly, the “Booming with Confidence” segment – wealthy, established couples living in suburban areas – was overrepresented in both restaurants’ captured markets.
These metrics highlight the two chains' success in attracting high-income family segments – groups who may be more resilient to the impacts of rising prices. For this consumer group, these restaurants strike a balance between quality and cost-effectiveness, making them a compelling choice for dining out in an uncertain economic landscape.
The Cheesecake Factory and BJ’s have found ways to thrive in a challenging dining environment, keeping foot traffic up and tapping into a receptive customer base.
With the holiday season around the corner, can these two chains maintain their foot traffic growth? Will The Cheesecake Factory see another major holiday season visit spike?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up to date with the latest data-driven dining news.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
2024 has been a tough year for quick-service restaurants (QSRs), with rising costs, inflation, and changing consumer preferences putting pressure on the industry. And as if these challenges weren’t enough, incursions into the convenient meal space by c-stores, fast-casual restaurants, and even grocery chains have forced QSRs to contend with increased competition.
But visit data shows that despite these headwinds, fast food leaders like McDonald’s and Wendy’s are holding their ground. During the first three quarters of 2024, both McDonald’s and Wendy’s experienced visit levels generally on par with those seen last year, with minimal year-over-year (YoY) variation. Despite a minor dip for McDonald's in Q2, when visits dropped by 2.2% compared to 2023, the overall difference in visit levels for both chains was less than 1% across the remaining quarters.
This stability highlights the ability of both brands to retain a steady flow of traffic despite competitive pressures and economic challenges.
One strategy QSRs have successfully deployed to entice hungry customers has been the introduction of discounted limited-time offers (LTOs). And following summer LTOs that garnered plenty of excitement, McDonald’s and Wendy’s are back in the limited-time game. On October 8th, 2024, Wendy's launched its Krabby Patty Kollab, celebrating the 25th anniversary of SpongeBob SquarePants with two limited-time items. Meanwhile, McDonald’s introduced the Chicken Big Mac on October 10th, expanding its menu with an item that had already gained global recognition.
While both launches positively impacted visitation, Wendy's limited-time menu had a more pronounced effect. Wendy’s saw a dramatic surge in visits in the wake of the Kollab, with an increase of 26.4% on the Tuesday of the Krabby Patty launch, compared to a year-to-date (YTD) Tuesday average. The following Wednesday and Thursday also saw increases of 20.7% and 23.9%, respectively, compared to the YTD daily average for those days of the week.
And though the response to McDonald’s menu addition was somewhat more restrained, the limited-time chicken offering also generated a visit increase: On the Thursday of the launch, McDonald’s saw visits jump by 7.9% compared to the chain’s YTD Thursday visit average – showing the power of limited-time items to generate excitement and urgency among consumers.
In addition to new menu items, McDonald’s has placed a strong emphasis on its breakfast offerings – a strategic focus that has grown more pronounced throughout 2024. By expanding its breakfast menu, offering healthier alternatives, and promoting limited-time deals, McDonald’s has successfully driven morning traffic. The introduction of CosMc's, a new McCafé spinoff, further boosts the company’s breakfast and coffee offerings, appealing to a broader audience seeking affordable beverages and quick meals.
And McDonald’s breakfast strategy appears to be paying off. In 2024, 24.8% of McDonald’s daily visits occurred between 5:00 AM and 11:00 AM – compared to just 8.5% for Wendy’s. Wendy’s, for its part, had a stronger foothold in the lunchtime segment, with the 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM time slot accounting for 27.5% of visits, compared to 21.2% for McDonald’s.
Both McDonald’s and Wendy’s have displayed resilience in maintaining steady customer visits, with menu innovations and breakfast strategies playing a significant role in shaping their traffic patterns in 2024.
How will the two quick-service giants sign off this year?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
