.svg)
When we reviewed March 2025 visitation data for industrial manufacturing facilities across the U.S. – encompassing visits from both employees and logistics partners – our data indicated an uptick in activity. Notably, many industrial manufacturers, particularly in sectors like aerospace, automotive, and packaging, increased activity as they proactively ramped up production in anticipation of potential tariff-related disruptions.
While the official U.S. Census Bureau data on manufacturing new orders for April and May 2025 is not yet available (with April's full M3 report expected around June 3rd and May's around July 3rd), visitation data from our industrial manufacturing composite for April 2025 was reflective of the evolving tariff landscape that many manufacturers have faced the past several weeks. Overall, our industrial manufacturing composite for April and early May 2025 indicates that visits to manufacturing facilities have decreased year-over-year.
Several factors could contribute to this decrease: (1) general consumer uncertainty about the economy, which has impacted retail visits this year and may be dampening industrial demand; and (2) previously announced extensions to some tariff implementation dates, which might have led businesses to pause or adjust orders. Separately, the tariff environment saw a new development with the temporary reduction in certain U.S.-China tariffs enacted in mid-May; this change may lead to shifts in activity going forward but would not explain the decrease observed in April and early May.
Were there manufacturing categories that saw greater year-over-year visitation trends than others? Unsurprisingly, categories that are potentially impacted by tariff activity – such as metals (including steel and aluminum) and electrical equipment – continued to see the greatest year-over-year increase in visits in April as manufacturers accelerated production ahead of tariff implementations or companies switched to goods produced in the United States (as shown below). General Dynamics, Howmet Aeropace, U.S. Steel, Nucor, and Powell Industries were among the manufacturers that stood out with respect to visit activity during April 2025.
Our previous analysis of Ford and General Motors manufacturing facilities indicated an uptick in visitation during late March and early April 2025. This surge likely reflected an effort by these automakers to accelerate production and build inventory ahead of significant tariff changes, including the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles that took effect on April 3rd and anticipated levies on auto parts.
However, in subsequent weeks, our visitation data indicated a return to more typical visitation levels for both manufacturers. These more subdued year-over-year visit trends likely indicate a period of adjustment and caution, aligning with the broader market uncertainty. The considerable financial impact from tariffs also led both Ford and General Motors to revise their 2025 financial guidance in early May, despite some discussions around partial tariff relief measures during that period.
Given the fluid and constantly evolving landscape for industrial manufacturers, what are the key takeaways? Our data shows a clear pull-forward in demand among manufacturers during March, as they ramped up production schedules ahead of tariff implementations, especially in sectors like metals and aerospace. However, this initial surge was followed by a cooling off in activity during April and early May, likely stemming from general tariff uncertainty.
Keep up with The Anchor to see where industrial manufacturing activity heads next.
Discount and dollar stores have enjoyed unprecedented success over the past few years as economic uncertainty continues to weigh on consumers’ minds – and wallets. We took a look at two discount players, Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, to see where the two are holding as the first half of 2025 draws to a close.
Five Below and Ollie’s were major winners in 2024, with visits to both chains elevated on a consistent basis. Both chains also aggressively expanded their footprints: Ollie's Bargain Outlet acquired around 40 leases from Big Lots, while Five Below opened a remarkable 227 new stores in 2024, with plans for another 150 in 2025.
Their strong positions were clearly reflected in Q1 2025 visit data. Five Below saw foot traffic climb 6.1% YoY, and Ollie's visits grew by 12.4%. Average visits per location were more mixed: Five Below's dipped by 4.6%, while Ollie's Bargain Market maintained momentum with a 4.6% YoY increase.
As its name suggests, Five Below primarily sells items for $5 or less, offering strong value at a time of rising prices – and customers are clearly responding. Five Below's monthly visits remained elevated throughout 2025, peaking in April with a 20.4% YoY increase. Monthly visits per location experienced more fluctuation, dipping in February and March while remaining elevated in January (+1.6%) and April (+10.1%).
Diving into the geographic segments as defined by Esri offers insight into the type of visitor that comes to Five Below – and what it might mean as the chain continues its expansion plans. Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2025, the share of visitors coming to Five Below from "Rural" and "Semi-Rural" areas increased, while the share from "Suburban Periphery" areas declined. This trend aligns with Five Below's deliberate focus on rural and semi-rural locations – a strategic choice likely influenced by existing customer behavior patterns – and might inform where the chain chooses to open its new locations in the coming years.
Foot traffic to Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was elevated for the first few months of 2025. Monthly visits experienced consistent YoY growth, and while average visits per location declined slightly in February 2025, they picked up immediately, ending April 2025 with 8.9% more visits per location than in April 2024. Some of this growth may be coming from its recent expansions – the chain opened 50 new stores in 2024.
While Ollie's differs from Five Below in terms of its product selection and price points, both chains share similarities in the demographic makeup of their visitors. The share of visitors coming from rural trade areas across the income spectrum, as defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset, was higher in Ollie’s captured markets than in its potential markets*. Meanwhile, the share of “Young Urban Singles” and “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” was lower in Ollie’s captured market than in its potential market.
This highlights the strength that the chain has among all kinds of rural visitor segments, and can help inform the chains’ expansion strategy as it grows its footprint in 2025 and beyond.
*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.
Five Below and Ollie’s are holding onto their 2024 gains thus far into 2025. With dozens of stores slated to open in the coming months, will the two retailers continue to grow their foot traffic?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Kohl’s has faced a challenging period marked by store closures, leadership instability and a 6.5% decline in comparable sales last year. So it may come as no surprise that the department store continued to see year-over-year (YoY) visit gaps in Q1 2025 – with YoY foot traffic down nearly every month since August 2024.
Still, Q1 2025 saw the department store’s YoY visit gap shrink to just 2.7%, with March experiencing a slight uptick in visits YoY. Kohl’s narrower Q1 visit gap may be a promising sign for the retailer, especially given the inclement weather that kept many consumers at home in February.
Sephora at Kohl’s also remains a bright spot, contributing to an 8.8% net sales increase in the department store’s Accessories category in 2024. And a regional snapshot of YoY visit trends shows that much of the western United States actually experienced a YoY visit increase in Q1 – a trend the company’s incoming CEO may wish to build upon.
What lies in store for Kohl’s in the months to come?
Follow Placer.ai's data driven retail analyses to find out.
The apparel landscape is constantly adapting to changing consumer preferences and behavior. And in Q1 2025, top sportswear and athleisure brands DICK’s Sporting Goods and lululemon athletica showed that partnering with star athletes and making bold statements at major competitions is one way to build success in the long term. What did location analytics reveal about this strategy? We dove into the data to find out.
Visits to DICK’s and lululemon declined in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, perhaps due in part to the continued emphasis on value-first apparel segments.
Still, diving deeper reveals several reasons for optimism. First, a closer look at YoY monthly visits reveals that February’s performance weighed heavily on the brands’ quarterly performance, as YoY visits dipped significantly due to the comparison to 2024’s leap year and inclement weather that kept many consumers at home. In January, March and April 2025, visits remained closer or even exceeded 2024 levels – more indicative of the brands’ overall performance.
Second, these visit gaps may have been partially offset by success through other channels: Both lululemon and DICK’s recently cited digital revenue gains and omnichannel growth, which could pave the way for other long-term growth opportunities in retail media.
And despite the slower quarter, DICK’s still demonstrated its ability to leverage partnerships and sporting events to drive in-store traffic.
Saturday is typically DICK’s busiest day of the week, and during all five Saturdays in March 2025, visits to DICK’s significantly outperformed the Q1 2025 Saturday average. This is likely due to DICK’s NCAA partnership and media investments during “March Madness”, which saw fans flock to DICK’s to stock up on college basketball gear leading up to and during The Big Dance. DICK’s also capitalized on its March Madness traction by launching a timely celebrity athlete campaign that may also have contributed to elevated Saturday traffic.
Lululemon has also adopted a bold strategy of star-athlete partnerships and high visibility at events to grow brand awareness.
At the WM Phoenix Open at the TPC Stadium Course in Scottsdale, AZ in February 2025, lululemon orchestrated an attention-grabbing crew of identically-dressed fans to accompany brand ambassador and pro-golfer Min Woo Lee. And at the BNP Paribas Open played in Indian Wells, CA, lululemon celebrated its professional tennis ambassadors Frances Tiafoe and Leylah Fernandez with an immersive installation on the tournament grounds and nearby lululemon store.
Diving into the psychographic characteristics of the regions from which lululemon and the two sports venues – TPC Stadium Course and Indian Wells Tennis Garden – receive visits reveals how making a statement during professional contests aligned with lululemon’s goal to grow brand awareness among its target audience.
Perhaps as would be expected, in 2024, lululemon’s potential trade area had more “Athleisure Enthusiasts” – Spatial.ai: FollowGraph segment for likely followers of lululemon and other athleisure brands on social media – than the nationwide average. However, the potential trade areas of Indian Well Tennis Garden and TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course had even higher concentrations of “Athleisure Enthusiasts”. This suggests that by investing in high visibility at these venues, lululemon was likely to build brand awareness among more of its potential visitor base.
Although visits to DICK’s and lululemon lagged in Q1 2025, there is still reason for optimism surrounding these brands. Seasonal sporting events like March Madness, in which DICK’s is an integral part, can play a role in driving traffic to stores. Meanwhile, lululemon appears to have found a formula to reach more of its target audience by making a statement at athletic events.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
Like many e-commerce retailers, Wayfair jumped on the brick-and-mortar bandwagon last year with a large-format flagship store at Edens Plaza in Wilmette, IL – giving customers a physical space to explore its products. To mark the store’s one year anniversary (it opened to great fanfare on May 23rd, 2024 – just a few days before Memorial Day), we dove into the data to examine the profile and behavior of its visitors – and see how they compare to the wider home furnishings space.
Location analytics show that Wayfair has emerged as a go-to furniture destination, drawing visitors from farther away than the industry standard. Wayfair’s large-format store also attracts an above-average share of weekend foot traffic, with most visits occurring on Saturdays and Sundays. During these peak times, customers can leisurely browse Wayfair’s extensive offerings, enjoy the onsite café, and take advantage of free design and home improvement consulting services. The store also attracts an affluent audience – from areas with a higher median HHI than either the nationwide baseline or the broader home furnishings segment.
Given Wayfair’s popularity – the Wilmette location has emerged as a major traffic driver to the mall – it may come as no surprise that plans are already in the works to open two more large-format Wayfair locations. How will the retailer continue to fare as it expands its footprint?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
Overall visits to Gap Banners declined 3.8% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with average visits per location falling 4.2%. The company’s performance appears to have been impacted by a particularly challenging February, when the absence of a leap year day and severe weather events led to a 10.2% drop in overall visits and an 11.0% decrease in average visits per venue compared to February 2024.
The company’s traffic was also somewhat weighed down by Banana Republic’s performance, which posted the largest year-over-year (YoY) declines of all Gap banners during the analyzed period. Meanwhile, the Athleta banner – which struggled somewhat in 2024 – returned to modest growth in Q1 2025, with overall visits up 0.4% and average visits per location up 1.1% YoY.
Gap’s performance improved significantly in April, with the Gap and Old Navy banners seeing YoY increases in both overall visits and average visits per venue. Old Navy in particular saw its overall traffic jump 10.2% and average visits per location increase by 9.1% compared to April 2024 – likely boosted by a tariff-driven pull-forward in consumer demand.
Average visits per venue also increased at Banana Republic and Athleta – although both banners saw minor YoY declines in overall traffic. The positive April data may indicate that the company is gaining traction and could suggest a more robust year ahead.
Ulta saw YoY declines of 3.7% in total visits and 7.1% in average visits per venue in Q1 2025, driven in part by difficult comparisons to a strong Q1 2024. Like Gap, the company’s February performance likely hurt its Q1 performance, with February traffic down 7.4% and average visits per venue down 10.7% compared to February 2024. But Ulta’s visit metrics improved in March 2025, with visits just 1.0% lower than in March 2024, and average visits per venue metrics narrowing to a 4.3% decline.
By April 2025, overall visits were up 0.4% YoY, and visits per venue down just 2.8% – suggesting that Ulta, like Gap, is now on a potential upward trajectory.
While Q1 2025 presented challenges for both Gap and Ulta, the rebound in April traffic offers a hopeful indication of strengthening consumer engagement. Will the companies maintain their momentum, or was the April rally the result of a temporary pull-forward of demand?
Keep up with The Anchor to find out.
The past few years have provided the tourism sector with a multitude of headwinds, from pandemic-induced lockdowns to persistent inflation and a rise in extreme weather events. But despite these challenges, people are more excited than ever to travel – more than half of respondents to a recent survey are planning on increasing their travel budgets in the coming months.
And while revenge travel to overseas destinations is still very much alive and well, the often high costs associated with traveling abroad are shaping the way people choose to travel. Domestic travel and tourism are seeing significant growth as more affordable alternatives.
This white paper takes a closer look at two of the most popular domestic tourism destinations in the country – New York City and Los Angeles. Over the past year, both cities have continued to be leading tourism hotspots, offering a wealth of attractions for visitors. What does tourism to these two cities look like in 2024, and what has changed since before the pandemic? How have inflation and rising airfare prices affected the demographics and psychographics of visitors to these major hubs?
Analyzing the distribution of domestic tourists across CBSAs nationwide from May 2023 to April 2024 reveals New York and Los Angeles to be two of the nation’s most popular destinations. (Tourists include overnight visitors staying in a given CBSA for up to 31 days).
The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro area drew the largest share of domestic tourists of any CBSA during the analyzed period (2.7%), followed closely by the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA CBSA (2.5%). Other domestic tourism hotspots included Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (tied for second place with 2.5% of visitors), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (1.9%), Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (1.8%), Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (1.8%), and Chicago-Naperville, Elgin, IL-IN-WI (1.6%).
The Big Apple. The City That Never Sleeps. Empire City. Whatever it’s called, New York City remains one of the most well-known tourist destinations in the world. And for many Americans, New York is the perfect place for an extended weekend getaway – or for a multi-day excursion to see the sights.
But where do these NYC-bound vacationers come from? Diving into the data on the origin of visitors making medium-length trips to New York City (three to seven nights) reveals that increasingly, these domestic tourists are coming from nearby metro areas.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, for example, the number of tourists visiting New York City from the Philadelphia metro area increased by 19.2%.
The number of tourists coming from the Boston and Washington, D.C metro areas, and from the New York CBSA itself (New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA) also increased over the same period.
Meanwhile, further-away CBSAs like San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL fed fewer tourists to NYC in 2023-2024 than they did pre-pandemic. It seems that residents of these more distant metro areas are opting for vacation destinations closer to home to avoid the high costs of air travel.
Diving even deeper into the characteristics of visitors taking medium-length trips to New York City reveals another demographic shift: Tourists staying between three and seven nights in the Big Apple are skewing younger.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of visitors to New York City from areas with median ages under 30 grew from 2.1% to 4.5%. Meanwhile, the share of visitors from areas with median ages between 31 and 40 increased from 34.3% to 37.7%.
The impact of this trend is already being felt in the Big Apple, with The Broadway League reporting that the average age of audiences to its shows during the 2022- 2023 season was the youngest it had been in 20 seasons.
The shift towards younger tourists can also be seen when examining the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular attractions in New York City. Analyzing the captured markets of major NYC landmarks with data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals an increase in households belonging to the “Educated Urbanites” segment between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024.
These well-educated, young singles are increasingly visiting iconic NYC venues such as the Whitney Museum of American Art, The Metropolitan Museum of Art, The American Museum of Natural History, and the Statue of Liberty. This shift highlights the growing popularity of these attractions among young, educated singles, reflecting a broader trend of increased domestic tourism among this demographic.
New York City’s tourism sector is adapting to meet the changing needs of travelers, fueled increasingly by younger visitors who may be unable to take a costly international vacation. How have travel patterns to Los Angeles changed in response to increasing travel costs?
While New York City is the East Coast’s tourism hotspot, Los Angeles takes center stage on the West Coast. And as overseas travel has become increasingly out of reach for Americans with less discretionary income, the share of domestic tourists originating from areas with lower HHIs has risen.
Before the pandemic, 57.6% of visitors to LA came from affluent areas with median household incomes (HHIs) of over $90K/year. But by 2023-2024, this share decreased to 50.7%. Over the same period, the share of visitors from areas with median HHIs between $41K and $60K increased from 9.7% to 12.5%, while the share of visitors from areas with HHIs between $61K and $90K rose from 32.1% to 35.8%.
Diving into the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular Los Angeles attractions – Universal Studios Hollywood, Disneyland California, the Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory – also reflects the above-mentioned shift in HHI. The captured markets of these attractions had higher shares of middle-income households belonging to the “Family Union” psychographic segment in 2023-2024 than in 2018-2019.
Experian: Mosaic defines this segment as “middle income, middle-aged families living in homes supported by solid blue-collar occupations.” Pre-pandemic, 16.0% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from trade areas with high shares of “Family Union” households. This number jumped to 18.8% over the past year. A similar trend occurred at Disneyland, Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory.
And like in New York City, growing numbers of visitors to Los Angeles appear to be coming from nearby areas. Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of in-state visitors to major Los Angeles attractions increased substantially – as people likely sought to cut costs by keeping things local.
Pre-pandemic, for example, 68.9% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from within California – a share that increased to 72.0% over the past year. Similarly, 59.7% of Griffith Observatory visitors in 2018-2019 came from within the state – and by 2023-2024, that number grew to 64.7%.
Even when times are tight, people love to travel – and New York and Los Angeles are two of their favorite destinations. With prices for airfare, hotels, and dining out increasing across the board, younger and more price-conscious households are adapting, choosing to visit nearby cities and enjoy attractions closer to home. And as the tourism industry continues its recovery, understanding emerging visitation trends can help stakeholders meet travelers where they are.
The positive retail momentum observed in Q1 2024 continued into Q2 – as stabilizing prices and a strong job market fostered cautious optimism among consumers. Year-over-year (YoY) retail foot traffic remained elevated throughout the quarter, with June in particular seeing significant weekly visit boosts ranging from 4.7% to 8.5%.
The robustness of the retail sector in Q2 was also highlighted by positive visit growth during the quarter’s special calendar occasions, including Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th) and Memorial Day (the week of May 27th). And though consumer spending may moderate as the year wears on, retail’s strong Q2 showing offers plenty of room for optimism ahead of back-to-school sales and other summer milestones.
On a quarterly basis, overall retail visits rose 4.2% in Q2. And diving into specific categories shows that value continued to reign supreme, with discount and dollar stores seeing the most robust YoY visit growth (11.2%) of any analyzed category.
Other essential goods purveyors, such as grocery store chains (7.6%) and superstores (4.6%), also outperformed the overall retail baseline. And fitness – a category deemed essential by many health-conscious consumers – outpaced overall retail with a substantial 6.0% YoY foot traffic increase.
The decidedly more discretionary home improvement industry performed less well than overall retail in Q2 – but in another sign of consumer resilience, it too experienced a YoY visit uptick. And overall restaurant foot traffic increased 2.6% YoY.
Discount and dollar stores enjoyed a strong Q2 2024, maintaining YoY visit growth above 10.0% for six out of the quarter’s 13 weeks. Only during the week of April 1st did the category see a temporary decline, likely the result of an Easter calendar shift. (The week of April 1st 2024 is being compared to the week of April 3rd, 2023, which included the run-up to Easter)
Some of this growth can be attributed to the continued expansion of segment leaders like Dollar General. But the category has also been bolstered by the emphasis consumers continue to place on value in the face of still-high prices and economic uncertainty.
Dollar General, which has been expanding both its store count and its grocery offerings, saw YoY visits increase between 9.1% and 15.9% throughout the quarter. Affordable-indulgence-oriented Five Below, which has also been adding locations at a brisk clip, saw YoY visits increase between 4.9% and 18.8%.
And though Dollar Tree has taken steps to rightsize its Family Dollar brand, the company’s eponymous banner – which caters to middle-income consumers in suburban areas – continued to grow both its store count and its visits in Q2.
Grocery store chains also performed well in Q2 2024 – experiencing strongly positive foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. Though the sector continues to face its share of challenges, stabilizing food-at-home prices and improvements in employee retention and supply chain management have helped propel the industry forward.
Diving into the performance of specific chains shows that within the grocery segment, too, price was paramount in Q2 2024 – with limited-assortment value grocery stores like Aldi and Trader Joe’s leading the way.
Traditional chains H-E-B and Food Lion (owned by Ahold Delhaize) – both of which are known for relatively low prices – outperformed the wider grocery sector with respective YoY foot traffic boosts of 11.4% and 8.7%. But ShopRite, Safeway (owned by Albertsons), Kroger, and Albertsons also drew more visits in Q2 2024 than in the equivalent period of last year.
Fitness has proven to be relatively inflation-proof in recent years – thriving even in the face of reduced discretionary spending and consumer cutbacks. Indeed, rising prices may have actually helped boost gym attendance, as people sought to squeeze the most value out of their monthly fees and replace pricy outings with already-paid-for gym excursions.
And despite lapping a remarkably strong 2023, visits to gyms nationwide remained elevated YoY in Q2 2024.
Diving into the data for some of the nation’s leading gyms shows that today’s fitness market has plenty of room at the top. Planet Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, Life Time Fitness, Orangetheory Fitness, and LA Fitness all experienced YoY visit growth in Q2 2024 – reflecting consumers’ enduring interest in all things wellness-related.
But it was EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness – two value gyms that have been pursuing aggressive expansion strategies – that really hit it out of the park, with respective YoY foot traffic increases of 23.4% and 21.4%.
The week of April 1st saw a decline in YoY visits to superstores – likely attributable to the Easter calendar shift noted above. But the category quickly rallied, and with back-to-school shopping and major superstore sales events coming up this July, the category appears poised to enjoy continued success throughout the summer.
Within the superstore category, wholesale clubs continued to stand out – with Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club enjoying YoY foot traffic growth ranging from 12.0% to 7.4%. But Target and Walmart also impressed with 4.6% and 4.0% YoY visit increases.
Inflation, elevated interest rates, and a sluggish real estate market have created a perfect storm for the home improvement industry, with spending on renovations in decline. The accelerated return to office has likely also taken its toll on the category, as people spend more time outside the home and have less availability to immerse themselves in DIY projects.
But despite these challenges, weekly YoY foot traffic to home improvement and furnishing chains remained elevated throughout much of the Q2 – with June and April seeing mostly positive YoY visit growth, and May hovering just below 2023 levels. This (modest) visit growth may be driven by consumers loading up on supplies for necessary home repairs, or by shoppers seeking materials for smaller projects. And given the importance of Q2 for the home improvement sector, this largely positive snapshot may offer some promise of good things to come.
Some chains within the home improvement category continued to perform especially well in Q2 2024 – with rapidly expanding, budget-oriented Harbor Freight Tools leading the pack. But Ace Hardware, Menards, The Home Depot, and Lowe’s also saw foot traffic increases in Q2, showcasing the category’s resilience in the face of headwinds.
Restaurants – including full-service restaurants (FSR), quick-service restaurants (QSR), fast-casual chains, and coffee chains – lagged behind grocery stores and other essential goods retailers in Q2 2024, as price-sensitive consumers prioritized needs over wants and ate at home more often.
Still, YoY restaurant foot traffic remained up throughout most of the quarter. And impressively, the sector saw a YoY visit uptick during the week of Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th, 2024, compared to the week of May 8th, 2023) – an important milestone for FSR.
The restaurant industry’s YoY visit growth was felt across segments – though fast-casual and coffee chains experienced the biggest visit boosts. Like in Q1 2024, fast-casual restaurants hit the sweet spot between indulgence and affordability, outpacing QSR in the wake of fast food price hikes. And building on the positive YoY trendline that began to emerge last quarter, full-service restaurants finished Q2 2024 with a 1.4% YoY visit uptick.
Chain expansion was the name of the restaurant game in Q2 2024, with several chains that have been growing their footprints outperforming segment averages – including CAVA, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Ziggi’s Coffee, California-based Philz Coffee, Raising Cane’s, Whataburger, and First Watch. Chili’s Grill and Bar also outpaced the full-service category average, aided by the revamping of its “3 for Me” menu.
Retailers and restaurants in Q2 2024 continued to face plenty of challenges, from inflation to rising labor costs and volatile consumer confidence. But foot traffic trends across industries – including both essential goods purveyors like grocery stores and more discretionary categories like home improvement and restaurants – suggest plenty of room for cautious optimism as 2024 wears on.
Return-to-office (RTO) trends have been closely watched over the past few years, with relevant stakeholders trying to puzzle out the impact remote and hybrid work have had on business operations and worker performance. And while visits to office buildings, overall, remain below pre-pandemic levels, office recovery varies from city to city – reflecting the complex and nuanced nature of regional economic trends, workforce preferences, and industry-specific needs.
This white paper harnesses location analytics to explore office recovery in the country’s second-largest economy – Los Angeles. The first part of the report is based on an analysis of foot traffic data from Placer.ai’s Los Angeles Office Index – an index comprising 100 office buildings in LA (including several in the greater metro area). The second part of the report broadens the lens to analyze visits by local employees to points of interest (POIs) corresponding to four major LA-area office districts: Century City, Downtown LA, Santa Monica, and Culver City. The white paper examines the impact that return-to-work mandates have had on visits to office buildings, discovers which demographic groups are driving the RTO, and explores the connection between commute time and return-to-office rates.
The return to office in Los Angeles has consistently lagged behind other major cities, underperforming nationwide recovery levels since the pandemic ground in-office work to a virtual halt. Still, the city’s office buildings are seeing a steady increase in visits, with foot traffic tending to spike at the beginning of each year. This indicates that even though office visits in LA are still below national averages, they are on a steady growth trajectory – a promising sign for stakeholders in the city.
A closer examination of Los Angeles office buildings also shows that despite the overall lag, some top-performing buildings in the LA metro area are defying the odds. Visits to the 20 local office buildings with the narrowest Q2 2024 post-COVID visit gaps were down just 8.7% in June 2024 compared to January 2019 – significantly outperforming the nationwide average.
So while overall office recovery in the city is still behind nationwide trends, these top-performing buildings indicate an optimistic outlook for the city’s office spaces.
Diving into the demographics of visitors to LA’s top-performing office buildings reveals an important insight: these buildings are attracting younger workers. This cohort has shown a stronger preference for in-person work compared to their older colleagues.
Analyzing the buildings’ captured markets with psychographics from AGS: Panorama reveals that these buildings are attracting visitors from areas with larger shares of "Emerging Leaders" and "Young Coastal Technocrats" than the broader metro area.
"Emerging Leaders'' – upper-middle-class professionals in early stages of their careers – make up 20.3% of households in the trade areas feeding visits to these top-performing buildings, compared to 14.9% in the broader LA CBSA. Similarly, "Young Coastal Technocrats," young and highly educated professionals in tech and professional services, account for 14.7% of households driving visits to the top-performing buildings, compared to only 12.1% in the broader area.
The trend suggests that companies in these high-performing office buildings employ many early-career professionals eager to accelerate their careers and work in-person with colleagues and mentors. This is a positive sign for the future of the office market in the LA metro area, indicating that it is attractive to key demographic groups that are likely to drive future growth and innovation.
Over the past few years, the debate regarding return-to-office mandates has been a heated one. Will employees follow return-to-office requirements? Can companies enforce the return to office after offering remote and hybrid work options? Recent location analytics data suggests that, at least in the Los Angeles metro area, some return-to-office mandates have been effective.
Three major tech companies – Activision Blizzard, TikTok, and SNAP Inc. – recently made their return-to-office policies stricter. Activision mandated a full return to the office in January 2024. TikTok has also intensified its return-to-office policy while seeking to expand its office presence in the greater Los Angeles area. And SNAP Inc. required employees to return to the office earlier this year as a condition of continued employment.
Visitation patterns at each of these companies' respective headquarters suggest that their policies have directly impacted visit frequency. Since the beginning of the year, the share of repeat office visits (defined as two or more visits per week) has increased for all three locations. Activision saw its share of repeat office visits grow from 52.1% in H1 2023 to 61.4% in the same period of 2024. TikTok’s repeat visits grew from 49.5% to 61.0%, and SNAP’s repeat visits increased from 36.6% to 42.8%.
These numbers highlight how return-to-office policies can lead to noticeable changes in office visit patterns and offer a blueprint to other businesses looking to foster a stronger in-office workforce.
Los Angeles is the second-largest metro area in the country, with several distinct business districts across its sprawling landscape. And a closer look at four major office hubs in the greater LA area – Century City, Downtown LA, Santa Monica, and Culver City – highlights how the office recovery can vary, not just by city or demographic, but on a neighborhood level.
Weekday visits by local employees to all four analyzed business districts have rebounded significantly since 2020 – though each area has followed its own particular trajectory.
Culver City, home to major businesses including Sony Pictures and Disney Digital Network, saw the least pronounced drop in employee visits during the early days of the pandemic. And in Q2 2024, weekday visits by local workers were down just 18.4% compared to Q1 2019.
Century City, on the other hand, saw the most marked drop in local employee foot traffic as the pandemic set in. But the district’s recovery trajectory has also been the most dramatic – with a Q2 2024 visit gap of just 28.5%, smaller than Downtown LA’s 29.7% visit gap. Perhaps capitalizing on this momentum, Century City is expanding its business district with the addition of a major new office building, set to be completed in 2026 and serve as the headquarters for Creative Artists Agency. Santa Monica, for its part, finished off Q2 2024 with a 23.3% visit gap.
Century City stands out within the Los Angeles metropolitan area for its dramatic decline and subsequent resurgence in local employee foot traffic. And looking at another metric of office recovery – employee commute distance – further underscores the district’s remarkable comeback.
The share of employees commuting to Century City from three to seven miles away has nearly returned to pre-COVID levels – suggesting a normalization of commuting patterns by local workers living in the area. In H1 2019, 33.5% of workers in Century City commuted between 3 and 7 miles to work; in 2022, that number had dropped to 29.8%. But by 2024, the share of visitors making that commute had grown to 32.5% – much closer to pre-COVID numbers.
Similarly, the region’s trade area size, which had contracted significantly in the wake of the pandemic, bounced back significantly in 2024. This serves as another indication of Century City’s rebound, cementing Century City’s status as a key business hub within the Los Angeles metropolitan area.
Five years after the upheaval caused by the pandemic, office spaces are still changing. Although the Los Angeles area has taken longer to recover than other major cities, analyzing local visitation data shows significant potential for the city’s business areas. With young employees leading the return-to-office charge, the city is poised to keep driving its strong economy and adjust to an evolving office environment.
