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Sweetgreen, which IPO-ed in 2021, and CAVA – public since last year – are continuing their growth spurt. We dove into the location intelligence data to understand what is driving success for these emerging fast-casual leaders.
Restaurant visit growth slowed last year as inflation took a toll on discretionary spending. But despite the wider dining deceleration, foot traffic to CAVA and sweetgreen continued to increase, helped by consistent store fleet expansion. Both chains posted year-over-year (YoY) visit gains every month of 2023, even as overall foot traffic to the fast-casual category lagged.
The positive trends continued in the new year, when consumers braved the cold to drive a 18.4% and 22.3% YoY increase in January 2024 visits – despite the challenging comparison to an already impressive January 2023.
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Cava and sweetgreen’s success may be attributed to a variety of factors. Both chains are known for their healthy offerings, which may attract the many consumers prioritizing health and wellness in their food choices. Plant-forward meals have also been particularly popular recently, and both CAVA and sweetgreen’s produce-heavy menus align well with this trend.
The income level of the chains’ visitor bases may be another key driver of Cava and sweetgreen’s success. In general, the potential market trade areas of fast-casual dining chains consists of households with income (HHI) levels that are slightly above the nationwide median. The median HHI in the neighborhoods within those trade areas that feed the most visits to fast-casual chains (the chains’ captured market) is even higher.
CAVA and sweetgreen’s potential market trade area median HHIs in 2023 was significantly higher than that in the wider fast-casual category – and the captured market median HHI was even greater. The particularly affluent visitor bases of CAVA and sweetgreen were likely less impacted by last year’s economic headwinds, which may have helped the chains continue to grow their footprint – and visit numbers – despite the wider challenges in the space.
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The similarities between CAVA and sweetgreen extend beyond their high-income visitor bases and shared emphasis on healthy options – both chains also seem to attract a particularly high share of singles. CAVA and sweetgreen’s captured market trade area include 37.9% and 42.3% of one-person and non-family households, respectively, compared to to an average of 34.1% for the wider Fast-Casual category.
Diving into the psychographics confirms this pattern. The two chains’ captured markets include a larger percentage of Educated Urbanites, defined by Spatial.ai: PersonaLive as “Well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs.” Young Professionals, defined as “Well-educated young professionals starting their careers in white-collar or technical jobs” and having an average household size of 1, are also overrepresented for CAVA and sweetgreen’s relative to the wider Fast-Casual category.
The large share of singles in these chains’ trade areas – especially combined with the high median HHI – likely means that CAVA and sweetgreen visitors have fewer overall expenses and fairly large discretionary budgets which can be spent on dining out.
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CAVA and sweetgreen thrived in 2023 and appears poised to continue growing in 2024, with visits to both chains skyrocketing even as foot traffic growth tapered off in the wider dining industry. And the company’s success in attracting high-income visitors from small households – who likely have the funds to continue spending on non-essentials despite the ongoing headwinds – means that both companies are well positioned for continued strength in the new year.
For more data-driven restaurant and dining insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
January is a time for new beginnings – and nearly half of Americans vowed to improve their fitness in the new year. So with 2024 picking up steam, we dove into the data to explore the current state of fitness. How did leading fitness chains perform last month? And what’s in store for the industry as a whole?
The first month of the year is a time for gyms to shine. Analyzing month-over-month changes in the average number of daily gym visits reveals that the biggest visit spike of the year takes place between December and January, when people double down on their motivation to make a change.
This year was no exception. In January 2024, visits to gyms nationwide jumped by 22.1% relative to December 2023 and were up 1.7% year-over-year (YoY) – despite lapping a very strong January 2023 – indicating that the post-COVID obsession with health and wellness is showing staying power.
Drilling down into the data for the nation’s five most-visited fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of room at the top. Value gym Crunch Fitness led the pack with a 21.1% YoY foot traffic increase, partly fueled by the brand’s continued expansion. Next in line was 24 Hour Fitness, where YoY visit gains highlighted the chain’s recovery from its pandemic-induced troubles. Planet Fitness outpaced its own outstanding 2023 performance with a 1.7% YoY foot traffic increase. And LA Fitness and Anytime Fitness also held their own – with visits just 2.0% and 4.4% under January 2023’s already-impressive levels.
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But the state of fitness isn’t only a national story – it’s also a regional one. Looking at January 2024 YoY fitness visits by state shows significant variations, with some areas seeing strong industry-wide growth, and some seeing YoY visit gaps. Major markets like California, Texas, Florida, and New York all saw visit increases – despite the unusually cold weather in some of these areas, including New York and Texas. Several states, including South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, and South Carolina, even saw visits to fitness centers skyrocket by more than 10.0%. At the same time, parts of the Midwest and South Central regions saw foot traffic dips.
Planet Fitness remains America's most-frequented gym, drawing millions of customers each year with low prices and a quality Judgement Free Zone. In January 2024, a whopping 59.3% of total visits to Crunch Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, LA Fitness, Anytime Fitness, and Planet Fitness – went to Planet Fitness’s vast club fleet. And in 2023, the category leader added 1.7 million new members to its rosters.
Given Planet Fitness’s incredible reach, it may come as no surprise that the chain has jumped on the media advertising bandwagon, announcing last month the launch of its own media network. The network will connect advertising partners with Planet Fitness’s growing audience, leveraging multiple channels – including in-club TV screens and other on-site promotional solutions.
And a look at the demographic characteristics of Planet Fitness’s trade areas across major markets shows just how varied a customer base the fitness leader attracts – with clubs in different areas of the country drawing very different audiences.
In California, for example, the median household income (HHI) of Planet Fitness’s captured market stood at $71.9K in 2023, 16.1% below the statewide baseline of $85.7K. But in New York, the median HHI of the brand’s captured market was $79.9% – 2.7% above the statewide baseline. And though Planet Fitness is squarely positioned as a bargain gym, a significant share of its captured market consisted last year of wealthy households earning more than $150K a year. This metric also varied across regions, as did the household composition of the chain’s customer base – with New York attracting customers from areas with disproportionately high shares of singles, and California drawing visitors from places with outsize shares of large households.
Given the variation in its captured markets, Planet Fitness’s media network offers potential advertisers not just the ability to reach millions of customers – but also the possibility of creating targeted campaigns aimed at different locations’ specific audiences.
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Gyms have flourished in recent years, buoyed by consumers’ growing emphasis on health, wellness, and affordable experiences. But will newly-committed gym rats tire as the power of their new year’s resolutions wanes? How will the sector continue to fare as 2024 wears on?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven analyses to find out.
Dutch Bros. has impressed with its foot traffic growth over the past few years. We took a closer look at the foot traffic data to understand where this chain’s growth is headed.
Dutch Bros., the country’s third-largest coffee chain, began as a simple coffee pushcart in Grants Pass, Oregon. Thirty-two years later, the company is one of the fastest-growing coffee chains in the country, having grown to over 900 locations in the country’s North and Southwest regions.
Analyzing the change in monthly visits to the chain since 2019 reveals near-constant growth over the past few years – a noteworthy feat considering the challenges facing the space over COVID and during the recent inflation. And while some of Dutch Bros. visit increase is likely due to its expanding store fleet, the consistency and magnitude of the growth suggests that the chain is keeping its new customers coming back.
Dutch Bros.’ success continued in 2023 and into the new year, with the company posting consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit gains for the past thirteen months. January 2024 visits to Dutch Bros. were 10.0% higher than in January 2023, while overall visits to the coffee space decreased by 2.7% YoY during the same period.
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Dutch Bros.’ drive-thru design helped the chain thrive during the pandemic – and the layout is also helping the chain reach suburban audience segments.
A chain’s potential market refers to the population residing in a given trade area, weighted to reflect the number of households in each Census Block Group (CBG) comprising the trade area. A chain’s captured market weighs each CBG according to the actual number of visits originating to the chain from that CBG.
Analyzing the psychographic makeup of Dutch Bros' trade areas in four major markets – Texas, Arizona, Oregon, and California – revealed that the chain’s captured market attracts an outsize share of suburban audience segments. Specifically, Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” were both overrepresented in Dutch Bros.’ captured market relative to their presence in the chain’s potential market. This suggests that the chain is particularly popular among suburban coffee lovers, regardless of income levels or economic backgrounds. As Dutch Bros. continues its expansion, focusing on suburban, car-centric areas may serve it well.
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Dutch Bros. has been a remarkable success story over the past few years despite the widespread economic headwinds challenges the dining space at large has experienced. Will the chain continue to see its momentum continue into 2024 and beyond?
Stay up-to-date with the latest data-driven dining insights by visiting placer.ai.
Super Bowl LVIII was a memorable event on and off the field. Rising-star quarterback Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers led a valiant effort – though ultimately fell short – against the Kansas City Chiefs and their veteran starter Patrick Mahomes. The game made history as the first-ever Super Bowl hosted in Las Vegas; plenty of cause for celebration – if the city needed any. And because Vegas is packed with world-class entertainment venues just steps away from the stadium, Super Bowl 2024 was poised to be a bash from the get-go. We used the latest location analytics to take a closer look at the Vegas hotspots where fans and celebrities celebrated (or drowned their sorrows) after the game.
Alongside the excitement of the game inside Las Vegas’s Allegiant Stadium, the party atmosphere of The Entertainment Capital of the World did not disappoint. Compared to the two previous Super Bowls, this year’s contest had the highest percentage of postgame hotel & casino visits – a whopping 38.4% of stadium visitors on Super Bowl Sunday visited a hotel or casino immediately after the game.
These venues have numerous attractions – restaurants, bars, nightclubs, and hotel rooms – so it’s difficult to know what specifically drove elevated foot traffic. However, it’s fair to say that postgame parties were a significant factor.
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Diving deeper into the data revealed which Vegas venues drove the most postgame traffic from stadium visitors. Caesars Palace came out on top, welcoming 6.3% of postgame foot traffic. Notably, the hotel’s Omnia nightclub was the location of the 49ers' postgame gathering where Lil Wayne attempted to alleviate the heartbreak of the losing squad.
Las Vegas’ Harry Reid Int’l Airport – where some fans and staff likely made a quick exit after the game – took second place, and Wynn Las Vegas was the third most-visited postgame location and cemented itself as a Super Bowl party destination – having hosted the champs last year as well. This time around, big stars in Chiefs Kingdom – including Patrick and Brittany Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Taylor Swift – showed up for an after-party at Wynn Las Vegas’ XS Nightclub to celebrate the victory to the music of Marshmello and Jelly Roll. The hotel’s Encore Beach Club put on an additional after-party honoring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dog, and Usher – who performed the Super Bowl halftime show. Ludacris, who also appeared on stage at halftime, was among the big names in attendance.
Wynn Las Vegas, with 3.7% of postgame traffic, was the fourth most-visited postgame venue. The hotel’s Zouk Nightclub hosted the Chiefs’ official after-party celebration, with Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, Megan Fox, and Machine Gun Kelly in attendance.
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The Super Bowl LVIII celebrations didn’t end on the Las Vegas Strip. Per tradition, at the end of the game, Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and his family declared “We’re going to Disneyland!” The following day, the Mahomes family was at a sold-out Disneyland Resort to celebrate the win and take part in the iconic victory parade.
The parade – scheduled for 2 pm – proved popular among Disneyland guests. Location intelligence showed that hourly visits to Disneyland climbed during the lead-up to the parade and peaked at the parade’s start time.
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Las Vegas provided a super-sized entertainment backdrop for sports’ biggest stage and one of the most thrilling Super Bowls to date. Location intelligence from the 2024 Super Bowl suggests that fans who make the trip look beyond the in-stadium action for ways to keep the celebrations going after the final whistle.
For more data-driven entertainment, hospitality, and tourism insights, visit Placer.ai.
There are so many ways to say Happy New Year in Asian languages, such as “Gong Xi Fa Cai” in Mandarin, which means wishing you prosperity in the coming year, “Saehae Bok Mani Badeuseyo” in Korean, wishing you lots of luck, and “Chuc mung nam moi” in Vietnamese, with a similar meaning of wishing you a joyful year. Along with these auspicious greetings are traditional foods such as dumpling soup, mung bean pancake, BBQ beef, sticky rice cakes, and candied fruits. Within the melting pot that is the USA, one can often find an Asian-themed shopping center in which to partake of the festivities. In Westminster, CA, Asian Garden Mall is one of the largest Vietnamese shopping centers in the U.S. At The Source OC, Korean shops and eateries abound. In the Midwest, one can visit Asia Mall Minnesota, with a pan-Asian panoply of offerings.
Last year, Lunar New Year kicked off on Jan. 22, and we can see that Asian Garden Mall visits skyrocketed on that day (below)
During the summer, there is also a vibrant night market there, open from 7-11pm on the weekends. Finds include pork skewers and buns, grilled scallops, mini shrimp crepes, and sugar cane juice.
The night market takes place in the parking lot of Asian Garden Mall and draws accretive business. What would normally be empty during the Feb-May period without a night market becomes a thriving evening adventure during the summer months.
In comparing Feb-May visits (blue) versus Jun-Sept visits (red) below, the mall also draws from a much larger trade area when the night market is occurring.
In terms of festivities, parades and food stalls abound at celebrations like the Tet festival in New Orleans, which takes place this year on Feb. 16-18 in the Village de l’Est neighborhood. There will be fireworks and a dragon dance and of course vats of simmering pho, crispy spring rolls, and puffy fried bananas. In San Jose, CA, home to one of the US’s largest Vietnamese populations, a Tet celebration will be held in the former Sears parking lot at Eastridge Center from Feb 16-18. There will be a talent contest, a visit from Miss Vietnam California, carnival rides, and of course plenty of food booths and desserts.
One of the newer Korean-themed malls is the Source OC, which opened in 2019. While the majority of the food options transport you to being in Korea, there is also Italian at Il Fiora, Japanese at Izakaya Ichie, and Mexican at La Huasteca. One can indulge in Gangnam House Korean BBQ, Monday to Sunday shaved ice, and Cheesetella Japanese Cheesecake. We saw the Source OC dip during Covid like practically all retail, but it has bounced back and is now exceeding pre-Covid visitation levels. Besides the draw of the food, there is also an indoor golf-simulator, a VR experience, and a children’s playground.
Both Koreatown Plaza and Koreatown Galleria are long-standing stalwarts in the heart of LA, but as Americans of all ethnicities increasingly migrate to suburbs, we will no doubt see more shopping center options catering to ethnic tastes outside of downtowns.
The nation’s first enclosed shopping mall was Southdale Center in Edina, MN, a project that opened in 1956, by Victor Gruen, an Austrian-American who would henceforth be known as the “father of the shopping mall.” His original vision was a community hub with access to many shops as well as medical centers, schools, and even residences. This did not occur in the 50s, but three-quarters of a century later, many mall developers are re-envisioning malls to be places to live, eat, play, and shop as well as have access to essential services and to be that third space for community gatherings and celebrations. How fitting that another recent mall in Minnesota, the Asia Mall has been conceived as a reflection of the local community. It opened in November 2022, inspired by the desire for a one-stop pan-Asian mall to get all groceries as opposed to dashing around Minneapolis, St. Paul, Brooklyn Park, and Brooklyn Center to obtain the desired goods. Food and drinks are procured from various Asian countries, such as Vietnam, China, and Korea and anchored by grocery store Asian Mart 88. Dining includes Pho Mai, Hot Pot City with all-you-can-eat hot pot, Cruncheez Korean hot dogs, and Mochi Dough doughnuts. As part of the trend for including essential services, this mall also has a hair salon, insurance company, and travel agency.
It also appears the concept of one-stop-shop, be it for Asian groceries or for warehouse-sized purchases, is prized by the inhabitants of Eden Prairie who really value efficiency. Asia Mall does half the visits of the nearby Costco, which is impressive. Besides home and work, visitors of Asia Mall are most likely to visit Costco before or after a shopping trip (below).
How did off-price leaders T.J. Maxx, Marshalls (both owned by TJX Companies), Burlington, and Ross perform in last year? And how is 2024 shaping up for the category? We dove into the foot traffic data to find out.
Off-price apparel retailers typically employ a straightforward method: sell excess or off-season merchandise that would otherwise remain unsold at a discount, benefiting both shoppers and manufacturers.
This retail model has consistently performed well, as evidenced by the consistent growth in visits to T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington over the past few years. And despite the overall sluggishness experienced by much of the apparel retail category in 2023, visits to these stores continued to increase year-over-year (YoY) in every quarter analyzed.
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January 2024 YoY visit growth slowed slightly – perhaps due to Q1 2023’s exceptionally strong performance. But despite the difficult comparison, foot traffic for most chains remained close to 2023 levels while YoY January visits to Ross increased 5.5%, highlighting the resilience of the off-price sector.
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The demographic and psychographic makeup of a chain’s trade area – which shows the types of visitors who frequent the chain – can be determined by looking at the chain’s potential or captured market. A chain’s potential market is calculated by weighing the Census Block Groups (CBGs) feeding visits to the chain according to the size of the CBG, while the captured market weighs each CBG according to the relative number of visits to the chain originating from that CBG.
Using these tools to analyze the median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of the four chains reveals a divergence between the two TJX-owned chains T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, on one side, and Ross Dress for Less and Burlington, on the other. The median HHI in T.J. Maxx and Marshalls’ potential market is higher than the potential median HHI for Ross and Burlington – and the two TJX brands’ captured market median HHI is even higher. Meanwhile, the median HHI in Ross and Burlington’s captured market is lower than the median HHI in their own potential markets.
The variance in median HHI between the chains may have to do with differences in branding and product selection. Marshalls and T.J. Maxx tend to have the higher price points, with T.J. Maxx in particular expanding its designer offerings over the past few years through its Runway stores. Ross and Burlington, known for their no-frills approach to clothing shopping, have relatively lower price points – and may see more customers seeking bargains over high fashion.
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While an analysis of trade area median HHI highlights differences between the chains’ visitor bases, a deeper exploration of Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington’s trade areas suggests that the retailers also share common ground – specifically, their popularity with middle-income families. For almost all brands, the captured market share of households categorized by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset as “Family Union” and “Cultural Connections” was larger than the potential market share. T.J. Maxx, which had a slightly lower share of “Cultural Connection” households in its captured market relative to its potential market, was the sole exception.
All four chains continue to add stores to their fleets – Ross opened 97 stores in fiscal 2023, and Burlington is looking to expand in over 60 former Bed Bath and Beyond locations. Focusing on trade areas with diverse families, then, may serve Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington. And T.J. Maxx, which has been enjoying a resurgence of interest from younger shoppers, might consider expanding into areas that attract young professionals.
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Off-price apparel retailers continue to succeed despite – or perhaps because of – a challenging economic climate. Will their success continue into 2024?
Visit placer.ai to keep up-to-date on the latest data-driven retail trends.
Walmart, Target, and Costco are three of the most popular retailers in the country, drawing millions of shoppers through their doors each day. Each of these retail giants boasts distinct strengths and strategies that cater to their unique customer bases, allowing them to thrive in a highly competitive market.
This white paper takes a closer look at some of the factors that are helping the three chains flourish. How does Walmart’s positioning as a family-friendly retailer help it drive visits in its more competitive markets? How can Target leverage its reach to drive more loyal visits? And what does the increase in young shoppers frequenting membership warehouse clubs mean for Costco?
We dove into the location analytics to explore these questions further.
Examining monthly visitation patterns for the three retail giants shows Costco’s wholesale club model leading the way with consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth – ranging from 6.1% in stormy January 2024 to 13.3% in June. Family favorite Walmart followed closely behind, seeing YoY foot traffic growth during all but two months, when visits briefly trailed slightly behind 2023 levels before rebounding.
Target, meanwhile, had a slower start to the year, with visits trending below 2023 levels for most of January to April. Over this same period (the three months ending May 2024), Target reported a 3.7% decline in YoY comparable sales. But since then, things have begun to turn around for the chain, with YoY visits rising in May (2.5%), June (8.9%), and July (4.7%). This renewed visit growth into the second half of the year bodes well for the superstore – and the ongoing back-to-school season may well push visits up further as the summer winds down.
For all three chains, Q2 2024’s visit success has likely been bolstered in part by summer deals and intensifying price wars – as the retailers slash prices to woo inflation-weary consumers back to the store.
Over the past few years, consumer behaviors have been changing rapidly in response to shifting economic conditions. This next section explores some of these changes at Walmart, Target, and Costco, to better understand what may be driving these shifts.
One way that consumers have traditionally responded to inflation and other headwinds has been through the adoption of mission-driven shopping – making fewer, but longer, trips to retailers, so that every visit counts. Superstores and wholesale clubs, which offer one-stop shopping experiences, have long been prime destinations for these extended shopping trips. And even during periods when visits have lagged, these retailers have often benefited from extended dwell times – leading to bigger basket sizes.
A look at changes in average dwell times at Walmart and Target suggests that as YoY visits have picked up, dwell times have come down – perhaps reflecting a normalization of consumers’ shopping patterns. With inflation stabilizing and gas prices lower than they were in 2022 and 2023, customers may feel less pressure to consolidate shopping trips than they have in recent years.
In contrast, Costco’s comparatively long dwell times have remained stable over the past several years. The warehouse club’s bulk offerings, plentiful free samples, and inexpensive food court encourage shoppers to spend more time browsing the aisles than they would at other retailers. And even if mission-driven shopping continues to subside, Costco customers will likely keep on making extra-long shopping trips.
While inflation is cooling faster than expected, prices remain high, and new players are stepping into the retail space occupied by Walmart, Target, and Costco – especially dollar stores. Though higher-income customers increasingly rely on the three retail giants for many of their purchases, customers of more modest means are often drawn to the rock-bottom prices offered at dollar stores.
And analyzing the cross-shopping patterns of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco shows that growing shares of visitors to the three behemoths also visit Dollar Tree on a regular basis. In Q2 2019, the share of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco who frequented Dollar Tree at least three times ranged between 9.8% and 13.7%. But by Q2 2024, that share rose to 16.7%-21.6%.
Dollar Tree is leaning into this increased interest among superstore shoppers. Over the past year, Dollar Tree added some 350 Dollar Tree locations, even as it shuttered nearly 400 Family Dollar stores. And the chain recently acquired the leases of some 170 99 Cents Only Stores – offering Dollar Tree access to a customer base accustomed to buying everything from groceries to household goods. As Dollar Tree continues to grow its footprint and expand its food offerings, the chain will be better positioned than ever to provide a real challenge to Walmart, Target, and Costco.
Still, the three retail giants each have unique offerings that distinguish them from dollar stores. This next section examines what sets Walmart, Target, and Costco apart – and how they can continue to strengthen their competitive edge.
With competition on the rise, Walmart, Target, and Costco must display agility in navigating an ever-evolving market landscape. This section dives into the data for each chain’s more successful metro areas to see what factors are helping them outperform nationwide averages – and what metrics the retailers can harness to try to replicate these results nationwide.
Target recently expanded its Target Circle Rewards program, rolling out three new tiers for its 100 million members. And this focus on loyalty has proven successful for the chain. Demographic and visitation data reveal a strong correlation between the median household incomes (HHIs) of Target locations’ captured markets across CBSAs (core-based statistical areas), and their share of loyal visitors in Q2 2024: CBSAs where Target locations’ captured markets had higher median HHIs also tended to draw more repeat monthly visitors.
Target’s captured markets in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, LA CBSA, for example, featured a median HHI of $89.8K in Q2 2024 – and 48.0% of the chain’s LA visitors frequented a Target at least twice a month during the quarter. Target stores in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI CBSA, where the chain’s captured markets had a median HHI of $88.7K in Q2 2024, also had a loyalty rate of 48.0%.
Target generally attracts a more affluent audience than Walmart. And even as the superstore slashes prices to attract more price-conscious consumers, the retailer is also taking steps likely to enhance its popularity among higher-income households. In April 2024, Target debuted a paid membership tier within its loyalty program offering perks like same-day delivery for a fee. Maintaining and expanding these premium offerings will be key for Target as it seeks to attract more affluent customers and replicate its high-performing results in CBSAs nationwide.
The persistent inflation of the past few years, while challenging for some retailers, has also created new opportunities – particularly for wholesalers. Membership warehouse clubs, including Costco, are gaining popularity among younger shoppers, a cohort often looking for new ways to stretch their more limited budgets. An October 2023 survey revealed that nearly 15% of respondents aged 18 to 24 and 17% of those aged 25 to 30 shop at Costco.
A closer look at some of Costco’s best-performing CBSAs for YoY visit-per-location growth highlights the significance of these younger shoppers: In H1 2024, the company’s YoY visit-per-location growth was strongest in areas with higher-than-average shares of young urban singles.
For example, the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA CBSA experienced visit-per-location growth of 10.4% YoY in H1 2024, while the nationwide average stood at 7.9%. And the CBSA’s share of Young Urban Singles, defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset as “singles starting their careers in trade and service jobs,” was 12.1%, well above Costco’s nationwide average of 7.3%.
Walmart is a one-stop shop for everything from affordable groceries to clothing to home furnishings, making it especially popular among families. The retailer actively courts this segment with baby offerings designed to meet the needs of both kids and parents, virtual offerings in the metaverse, and collectible toys.
And visitation data reveals a connection between the extent of different Walmart locations’ YoY visit growth and the share of households with children in their captured markets.
In H1 2024, nationwide visits to Walmart increased by 4.1% YoY, while the share of households with children in the chain’s overall captured market hovered just under the nationwide baseline. But in some CBSAs where Walmart outpaced this nationwide growth, the retail giant also proved especially adept at attracting parental households – outpacing relevant statewide baselines.
In Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA, for example, Walmart experienced 5.0% YoY visit growth in H1 2024 – while the share of households with children in the chain’s local captured market stood 7% above the Massachusetts state average. And in Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI, where Walmart’s share of parental households outpaced the Minnesota state average by an even wider 15% margin, the retailer saw impressive 7.3% YoY visit growth. This pattern repeated itself in other metro areas, suggesting that there may be a correlation between local Walmart locations’ visit growth and their relative ability to draw households with children.
Walmart can continue solidifying its market position by leaning into its family-oriented offerings and expanding its footprint in regions with growing populations of young families.
Walmart, Target, and Costco all experienced YoY visit growth in the final months of H1 2024, with Costco leading the way. And though the three chains still face considerable challenges, each one brings unique strengths to the table. By continuously innovating and responding to changing market conditions, Walmart, Target, and Costco can not only overcome obstacles but also leverage them to reinforce their market positions and drive continued growth.
The first Lollapalooza – a four-day music festival – took place in 1991. Chicago’s Grant Park became the event’s permanent home (at least in the United States) in 2005, drawing thousands of revelers and music fans to the park each year.
This year, the festival once again demonstrated its powerful impact on the city. On August 1st, 2024, visits to Grant Park surged by 1,313.2% relative to the YTD daily average, as crowds converged on the park to see Chappell Roan’s much-anticipated performance. And during the first three days of the event, the event drew significantly more foot traffic than in 2023 – with visits up 18.9% to 35.9% compared to the first three days of last year’s festival (August 3rd to 5th, 2023).
Lollapalooza led to a dramatic spike in visits to Grant Park – and it also attracted a different type of visitor compared to the rest of the year.
Analyzing Grant Park’s captured market with Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals that Lollapalooza attendees are more likely to belong to the “Young Professionals” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment groups than the typical Grant Park visitor.
By contrast, the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” segment group, comprising middle-class diverse families living in or near cities, made up only 6.5% of visitors during the festival, compared to 12.0% during the rest of the year.
Additionally, visitors during Lollapalooza came from areas with higher HHIs than both the nationwide baseline of $76.1K and the average for park visitors throughout the year. Understanding the demographic profile of visitors to the park during Lollapalooza can help planners and city officials tailor future events to these segment groups – or look for ways to make the festival accessible to a wider range of music lovers.
Lollapalooza’s impact on Chicago extended beyond the boundaries of Grant Park, with nearby hotels seeing remarkable surges in foot traffic. The Congress Plaza Hotel on South Michigan Avenue witnessed a staggering 249.1% rise in visits during the week of July 29, 2024, compared to the YTD visit average. And Travelodge on East Harrison Street saw an impressive 181.8% increase. These spikes reflect the festival’s draw not just for locals but for out-of-town visitors who fill hotels across the city.
The North Michigan Avenue retail corridor also enjoyed a significant increase in foot traffic during the festival, with visits on Thursday, August 1st 56.0% higher than the YTD Thursday visit average. On Friday, August 2nd, visits to the corridor were 55.7% higher than the Friday visit average. These numbers highlight Lollapalooza’s role in driving economic activity across Chicago, as festival-goers venture beyond the park to explore the city’s vibrant retail and hospitality offerings.
City parks often serve as community hubs, and Flushing Meadows Corona Park in Queens, NY, has been a major gathering point for New Yorkers. The park hosted one of New York’s most beloved summer concerts – Governors Ball – which moved from Governors Island to Flushing Meadows in 2023.
During the festival (June 9th -11th, 2024), musicians like Post Malone and The Killers drew massive crowds to the park, with visits soaring to the highest levels seen all year. On June 9th, the opening day of the festival, foot traffic in the park was up 214.8% compared to the YTD daily average, and at its height, on June 8th, the festival drew 392.7% more visits than the YTD average.
The park also hosted other big events this summer – a July 21st set by DMC helped boost visits to 185.1% above the YTD average. And the Hong Kong Dragon Boat Festival on August 3rd and 4th led to major visit boosts of 221.4% and 51.6%, respectively.
These events not only draw large crowds, but also highlight the park’s role as a space where cultural and civic life can find expression, flourish, and contribute to the health of local communities.
Analyzing changes in Flushing Meadows Corona Park’s trade area size offers insight into how far people are willing to travel for these events. During Governors Ball, for example, the park’s trade area ballooned to 254.5 square miles, showing the festival's wide appeal. On July 20th, by contrast, when the park hosted several local bands and DJs, the trade area was a much more modest 57.0 square miles.
Summer events drive community engagement, economic activity, and civic pride. Cities that invest in their parks and event hubs, fostering lively and inclusive spaces, can create lasting value for both residents and visitors, enriching the cultural and social life of urban areas.
For more data-driven civic stories, visit Placer.ai.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
This white paper delves into location analytics across six major hotel categories – Luxury Hotels, Upper Upscale Hotels, Upscale Hotels, Upper Midscale Hotels, Midscale Hotels, and Economy Hotels – to explore the current state of the American hospitality market. The report examines changes in guest behavior, personas, and characteristics and looks at factors driving current visitation trends.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
As mid-range hotels that still offer a broad range of amenities, Upper Midscale chains strike a balance between indulgence and affordability. And perhaps unsurprisingly, hotel operators have been investing in this tier: In Q4 2023, Upper Midscale Hotels had the highest project count of any tier in the U.S. hotel construction and renovation pipeline.
The shift in favor of Upper Midscale Hotels and away from Economy chains is also evident when analyzing changes in relative visit share among the six hotel categories.
Upper Midscale hotels have always been major players: In H1 2019 they drew 28.7% of overall hotel visits – the most of any tier. But by H1 2024, their share of visits increased to 31.2%. Upscale Hotels – the second-largest tier – also saw their visit share increase, from 24.8% to 26.1%.
Meanwhile, Economy, Midscale, and Upper Upscale Hotels saw drops in visit share – with Economy chains, unsurprisingly, seeing the biggest decline. Luxury Hotels, for their parts, held firmly onto their piece of the pie, drawing 2.8% of visits in H1 2024.
Who are the visitors fueling the Upper Midscale visit revival? This next section explores shifts in visitor demographics to four Upper Midscale chains that are outperforming pre-pandemic visit levels: Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, Fairfield by Marriott, and Hampton by Hilton.
Analyzing the captured markets* of the four chains with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Much of the Upper Midscale visit growth is being driven by chain expansion. But in some areas of the country, the average number of visits to individual hotel locations is also on the rise – highlighting especially robust growth potential.
Analyzing visits to existing Upper Midscale chains in four metropolitan areas with booming tourism industries – Salt Lake City, UT, Palm Bay, FL, San Diego, CA, and Richmond, VA – shows that these markets feature robust untapped demand.
Utah, for example, has emerged as a tourist hotspot in recent years – with millions of visitors flocking each year to local destinations like Salt Lake City to see the sights and take in the great outdoors. And Upper Midscale hotels in the region are reaping the benefits. In H1 2024, the overall number of visits to Upper Midscale chains in Salt Lake City was 69.4% higher than in H1 2019. Though some of this increase can be attributed to local chain expansion, the average number of visits to each individual Upper Midscale location in the area also rose by 12.5% over the same period.
Palm Bay, FL (the Space Coast) – another tourist favorite – is experiencing a similar trend. Between H1 2019 and H1 2024, overall visits to local Upper Midscale hotel chains grew by 36.4% – while the average number of visits per location increased a substantial 16.9%. Given this strong demand, it may come as no surprise that the area is undergoing a hotel construction boom. Upper Midscale hotels in other areas with flourishing tourism sectors, like San Diego, CA and Richmond, VA, are seeing similar trends, with increases in both overall visits and and in the average number of visits per location.
Though Economy chains have underperformed versus other categories in recent years, the tier does feature some bright spots. Some extended-stay brands in the Economy tier – hotels with perks and amenities that cater to the needs of longer-stay travelers – are succeeding despite category headwinds.
Choice Hotels’ portfolio, for example, includes WoodSpring Suites, an Economy chain offering affordable extended-stay accommodations in 35 states. In H1 2024, the chain drew 7.7% more visits than in the first half of 2019 – even as the wider Economy sector continued to languish. InTown Suites, another Economy extended stay chain, saw visits increase by 8.9% over the same period.
And location intelligence shows that the success of these two chains is likely being driven, in part, by their growing appeal to young, well-educated professionals. In H1 2019, households belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Young Professionals” segment made up 9.6% of WoodSpring Suites’ captured market. But by H1 2024, the share of this group jumped dramatically to 13.3%. At the same time, InTown Suites saw its share of Young Professionals increase from 12.0% to 13.4%.
Whether due to an affinity for prolonged “workcations” (so-called “bleisure” excursions) or an embrace of super-commuting, younger guests have emerged as key drivers of growth for the extended stay segment. And by offering low–cost accommodations that meet the needs of these travelers, Economy chains can continue to grow their share of the pie.
The hospitality industry recovery continues – led by Upper Midscale Hotels, which offer elevated experiences that don’t break the bank. But today’s market has room for other tiers as well. By keeping abreast of local visitation patterns and changing consumer profiles, hotels across chain scales can personalize the visitor experience and drive customer satisfaction.
