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Darden recently announced that it was considering ceasing operations for one of its chains, Bahama Breeze, following the closure of 15 of its 43 locations in May 2025.
Visit data for the brand highlights the struggles the Caribbean-inspired chain has faced in recent years. Year-over-year (YoY) visits were down in every year analyzed, and monthly visits declined in all but three of the past 12 months. The chain appeared particularly hard-hit starting in 2025, which may have been a consideration in Darden's decision to shutter Bahama Breeze locations.
Whether Darden plans to keep the remaining 28 Bahama Breeze restaurants operational or opt for a full sale remains to be seen, but the recent foot traffic challenges facing the brand position it for a strategic pivot – or more drastic measures.
As the U.S. economy moves to the midpoint of 2025, a divergent macro picture is starting to take hold. While consumers are showing renewed confidence and returning to stores (or at the very least, responding to heightened promotional activity across many retail categories), the industrial backbone of the economy – manufacturing and shipping – is tapping the brakes. This split narrative suggests that while immediate consumer sentiment has improved as tariff-related news has taken a backseat, industrial signals may be painting a more cautious picture.
The retail sector has seen a welcome rebound in May and June, following a sluggish start to the year when macroeconomic uncertainty and significant tariff-related news dampened spirits and hurt foot traffic in February and March. Year-over-year visitation data for the Placer 100 index – a composite of 100 of the largest retail and restaurant chains in the U.S. – indicates that shoppers have likely grown accustomed to the economic climate and are demonstrating more consistent and normal behaviors.
With the initial shock of potential price hikes having passed, consumers appear to be moving past the cautious approach that marked the first quarter, leading to stabilized and improving year-over-year visit trends across many retail categories.
Admittedly, there are multiple factors driving the recent increases in year-over-year retail traffic. Consumers remain squarely focused on value, which continues to drive outperformance for value grocers, warehouse clubs, and dollar stores (which also appear to be benefiting from less competition from Temu and Shein amid new regulatory restrictions). Off-price retailers continue to be one of the strongest performing categories year-to-date, capitalizing on increased inventory opportunities stemming from recent store closures and tariff-related supply chain disruptions, allowing them to fuel their "treasure hunt" model. Finally, traditional department stores have also contributed to the rebound through strong reception to events like Nordstrom’s Half-Yearly Sale and other promotional activity.
While retail visits have normalized in recent weeks, a different story is unfolding across U.S. factories and ports. Following a production surge in late March and April – when manufacturers ramped up activity to build inventory ahead of tariff deadlines – both manufacturing and port activity have seen a notable decline in May and into June.
Placer’s Industrial Manufacturing composite indicates that activity at manufacturing facilities – representing visits for both facility employees (estimated based on dwell time) and visitors, who often represent logistics partners – slowed in May and June.
Looking at manufacturing visit data by category, many U.S. factories took a breather in May, with our data showing a widespread slowdown in visits. The auto and auto parts industry has been hit particularly hard, feeling the direct impact of international tariffs. But this isn't just a car story – most other manufacturing sectors also pumped the brakes, signaling that many companies are cautiously getting ready for what could be an unpredictable second half of the year.
Slowing new orders and decreasing container volumes at major ports suggest that businesses, having already front-loaded their inventory, are now taking a more cautious look toward the second half of 2025. Many appear hesitant to over-commit amidst an unpredictable trade policy landscape.
Our visitation data for some of the busiest ports in the U.S. generally shows a strong correlation with the Bureau of Transportation's container import and export statistics. While our data indicated increased activity at several Eastern ports ahead of initial tariff implementation dates in early April, we have since observed visitation trends declining through much of April and May. The one notable exception is the Port of Houston – where gasoline imports are often received – which saw a spike in activity in May that has continued through June.
The two-track U.S. economy at the mid-point of 2025 highlights a clear divergence between consumer behavior and industrial strategy. While shoppers have returned to stores, driven by a hunt for value and successful promotions, the industrial sector is sending more cautious signals. The slowdown in activity at manufacturing facilities and ports suggests that businesses, having already front-loaded inventory ahead of tariffs, are now bracing for potential volatility. This sets up a classic economic tug-of-war for the second half of the year, leaving a critical question: Will resilient consumer spending eventually pull the industrial sector back into a growth cycle, or will the manufacturing slowdown ultimately impact supply chains, shelf availability, and the recent retail rebound?
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Grab-and-go dining is thriving. Recent data indicates that nearly three out of four restaurant orders are taken to go. This trend is a particularly beneficial one for the limited-service dining category, which encompasses quick-service, fast-casual, and coffee chains.
We took a look at the visit data for these three subcategories of the limited-service dining world to understand how consumer behavior varies by dining type.
In a period marked by economic concerns, diners seeking convenient and budget-friendly choices often turn to limited-service options. And in recent months, coffee emerged as the strongest segment within the limited-service category, followed by fast-casual restaurants. Visits to both segments were up every month except February, when YoY foot traffic dropped due to inclement weather and a leap year comparison. Meanwhile, QSR saw essentially flat YoY visitation trends since March 2025.
This visit performance highlights shifts in dining preferences across visitors to the three segments. Coffee’s status as an affordable indulgence may be one factor driving traffic to the category. And with consumers becoming more discerning about their disposable income, fast-casual restaurants appear to be benefiting from the quality and perceived value that many such chains offer.
Diving deeper into the data suggests that short visits (less than 10 minutes) drove much of the growth in the coffee and fast-casual segments during the first five months of 2025, with YoY trends for short visits consistently outperforming YoY trends for longer (10+ minutes) visits.
The overall coffee segment continues to impress with elevated visits, though a closer look reveals significant variances within the category.
Specifically, mid-sized and small coffee chains are thriving. These chains – including brands like Dutch Bros and Black Rock Coffee Bar experienced YoY visit growth of 7.3% and 7.1%, respectively, largely due to chain expansions. In contrast, large coffee chains – a sub-category that includes major players like Starbucks and Dunkin’ – saw visits dip by 4.5% YoY.
And small coffee chains were the only segment to experience a slight YoY uptick in average visits per location – indicating that even as the segment expanded its footprint, existing locations, on average, continued to see modest visit growth. This trend may be partially attributed to the relative affluence of these chains’ visitors, who tended to come from trade areas with more high-income consumers (>$100K) than those frequenting mid-sized and large coffee chains.
Within the fast-casual and quick-service dining segment, burger chains reign supreme, but they face a formidable new challenger. Big Chicken – fast-casual and quick-service dining chains that focus on chicken in all its forms – have been ascendant over the past few years. Between 2019 and 2025, these restaurants significantly expanded their relative visit share from 15.0% to 18.3% among a wide range of fast-casual and quick-service dining categories, including burgers, Mexican chains, sandwich chains, and pizza chains. Much of this growth came at the expense of burger chains, which, despite retaining their title as the category’s largest segment, saw their relative visit share decline from 62.3% in 2019 to 59.8% in 2025.
The limited service category, encompassing a huge range of dining options, continues to evolve and thrive, whether through the dominance of small coffee chains or chicken offerings.
What changes might the category undergo in the coming months and years?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining insights.
Shortly after Big Lots’ December 2024 decision to close all remaining stores, the company announced plans to transfer more than 200 locations to Variety Wholesalers – owner of discount banners such as Roses, Maxway, and Super Dollar. Beginning in April 2025, these Big Lot venues began to reopen, and by early June 2025, 219 stores had already resumed operations.
Big Lots’ relaunch is centered on offering shoppers deep discounts and a treasure hunting experience by sourcing closeout, overstock, and liquidation deals. The brand has also revised its product mix – leaning into apparel and electronics while reducing furniture and eliminating perishables. But how likely is this strategy to succeed, and what does it offer Variety Wholesalers?
We dove into the data to find out.
Between January and May 2025, leading discount and dollar chains experienced positive year-over-year (YoY) growth in both visits and average visits per location, reflecting ongoing consumer demand for value. But among these major players, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet stood out with a 14.4% YoY increase in visits and a 6.3% rise in average visits per location, even as the brand continued its store expansion. This trend underscores the strong interest in heavily discounted closeout deals, affirming Big Lots’ decision to reinvest in a liquidation-based model.
An analysis of Big Lots locations reopened by May 1st, 2025 reveals that customers interact with the stores like they do with other treasure-hunting venues. In May 2025, Big Lots saw more weekend and extended visits compared to the category average – mirroring the browsing-friendly vibe at Ollie’s or Five Below. By encouraging shoppers to explore, linger, and discover bargains, Big Lots is creating a retail destination likely to appeal to customers seeking both value and a bit of fun.
Variety Wholesalers hopes to leverage the Big Lots acquisition to reach higher-income bargain hunters. And data from reopened Big Lots stores shows they attract shoppers with more money to spend than Variety Wholesalers’ existing banners – though still less than the nationwide baseline, making them especially receptive to discount offerings. In May 2025, Big Lots’ captured market median HHI stood at $60.9K – close to Ollie’s $64.6K – further underscoring the potential success of a treasure-hunt strategy for Big Lots.
By returning to its deep discount roots, Big Lots appears poised to resonate with today’s value seeking customers. And with the discount segment continuing to grow, this renewed focus on bargains and treasure hunts may help the brand get back on its feet.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Retailers and brands have often turned to limited-edition roll outs, product drops, or collaborations to drive traffic – and hopefully incremental sales. But, do these efforts still resonate with shoppers? Are these programs still as meaningful to the retail industry as they once were?
We dove into the data to see how consumers responded to recent high-profile offerings launched this spring by Trader Joe’s and Target.
When thinking about viral product sensations in 2025, it’s hard not to include the mini tote bag from Trader Joe’s. First released in February 2024 and then again September to fan frenzy, the original bags came in bold, classic colorways like red, yellow, blue and green. This spring, Trader Joe’s changed things up with a pastel-handled version – and once again, consumers couldn’t shop the bags fast enough.
The new mini totes debuted in-store on Tuesday, April 8th, 2025, and foot traffic estimates indicate a highly successful launch. Visits to Trader Joe’s were up 21.2% on launch day compared to a year-to-date Tuesday average, making it the busiest Tuesday of the year so far. Foot traffic also outpaced the mini totes’ second run on September 18th by 13.7%. Clearly, mini totes are the key to Trader Joe’s fanatics’ hearts.
The success of the program may stem in part from Trader Joe’s strong appeal to consumer segments heavily influenced by social media. In April 2025, the chain saw a higher penetration among “Educated Urbanites” and “Young Professionals” compared to the wider grocery industry – two groups that would be heavily clued into viral product trends.
Another high-profile product drop this April was Target’s Kate Spade collection, featuring women’s apparel, shoes, accessories, and home goods.
On the surface, Kate Spade seems a perfect fit for Target – the two brands share remarkably similar visitor profiles, primarily attracting affluent, suburban families. Both brands also place a strong emphasis on discretionary offerings – and the overlap in aesthetic and consumer preferences makes sense in today’s retail market.
However, in-store visitation on launch day (Saturday, April 12th) was down 6.8% compared to the release day of 2024’s collaboration with designer Diane Von Furstenberg and down 3.0% compared to the launch day of 2023’s collaboration with Agua Bendita, Rhode, and Fe Noel. Still, traffic was up 14.1% compared to the 2018 Hunter release. And the collection also debuted on Target.com at midnight PST the same day, so in-store traffic may not reflect overall demand.
One positive takeaway from the collaboration? Its ability to draw back affluent suburban shoppers – a key Target audience. In April 2025, the median household income (HHI) of Target’s captured market experienced a minor but significant bump – up to $86.4K, compared to $85.9K in March 2025 and $85.7K in April 2024.
Today’s shoppers are in the driver’s seat when it comes to setting trends, and retailers spend more time courting them than positioning themselves as authorities on what’s “cool.” Against this backdrop, retailers and brands are constantly vying for the next big viral sensation – or for those products or collections that become must-shop phenomena.
As retailers grapple with how to provide value to consumers amidst economic uncertainty, these offerings provide a new incentive for shoppers to visit that isn’t solely focused on price. Consumers may indeed perceive limited runs to be higher quality, more valuable or worth the extra investment. The concept of manufactured scarcity isn’t new in retail, but it continues to take on new forms as the consumer and industry evolve. We may reach a point where exclusivity and scarcity no longer move the needle for retailers, but that doesn’t seem likely in 2025.
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Target's visits shot up over the pandemic – but the chain has struggled to maintain its COVID-era momentum in recent years. Now, the upcoming back-to-school season presents an opportunity for the chain to bring visits back up.
Target's visits shot up between 2020 and 2022 as Americans stuck at home stocked up on everything from home goods to snacks to sporting equipment. But traffic has slowed since mid-2022, and although Target's visit gap has narrowed recently – May '25 visits were down just 1.7% YoY, a significant improvement from February's 9.1% YoY visit gap – year-over-year (YoY) visits were still down for five of the last six months.
Now, the upcoming back-to-school season may present just the opportunity the retailer needs to swing back into visit growth.
August is Target's second-busiest month of the year (the first is December), as the retailer sees visit upticks from everyone from families looking for back-to-school supplies to students getting ready for a new semester and renters switching leases. This seasonal strength offers more than just high traffic volume – it presents a unique comeback opportunity.
And August isn't just one of Target's busiest months – recent August traffic trends have also outperformed the broader twelve-month pattern.
While Target's overall YoY visit gap has widened over the past year (visits dropped 3.0% between June '24 and May '25 compared to the previous 12-month period, versus a smaller 2.2% decline in the prior year comparison), August's YoY visit gap has narrowed. This may suggest that shoppers who've reduced their Target visits throughout the year still prioritize the retailer during back-to-school season.
This creates a strategic window: Target can leverage this seasonal loyalty by enhancing its in-store experience and product selection during summer months, potentially winning back customers who might otherwise shop elsewhere during the rest of the year.
Families – especially middle and high-income families – make up a significant share of Target's captured market throughout the year. August is no exception – almost half (43.2%) of Target's captured market was made up of just four family segments in August '24 (according to Spatial.ai PersonaLive audience segmentation). Still, this is slightly lower than the 43.4% of family segments in Target's captured market between June '24 and May '25 – indicating that Target's August strength extends beyond its traditional family base.
Meanwhile, the share of single segments in Target's captured markets, which stood at 19.6% over the past twelve months, was up to 20.4% in August '24. So the retailer's summer boost is also driven by college students, young professionals, and other single shoppers – and these consumers may be looking for a different product mix and shopping experience than the traditional back-to-school fare.
Families remain Target's largest visitor segment, so the company should continue meeting the needs of this audience by offering a one-stop back-to-school destination along with BOPIS and curbside pickup to accommodate parents' busy lifestyles.
But the company can also make sure its offerings and shopping experience is set up to meet the needs of its Gen Z and millennial visitors when planning its back to school campaigns and in-store set up. Curating a "Singles & Students" section, carrying compact furniture and dorm room essentials, and setting up Instagram-worthy product displays may help these shoppers see Target as their retail home – building loyalty and boosting Target's traffic throughout the year.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
This white paper delves into location analytics across six major hotel categories – Luxury Hotels, Upper Upscale Hotels, Upscale Hotels, Upper Midscale Hotels, Midscale Hotels, and Economy Hotels – to explore the current state of the American hospitality market. The report examines changes in guest behavior, personas, and characteristics and looks at factors driving current visitation trends.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
As mid-range hotels that still offer a broad range of amenities, Upper Midscale chains strike a balance between indulgence and affordability. And perhaps unsurprisingly, hotel operators have been investing in this tier: In Q4 2023, Upper Midscale Hotels had the highest project count of any tier in the U.S. hotel construction and renovation pipeline.
The shift in favor of Upper Midscale Hotels and away from Economy chains is also evident when analyzing changes in relative visit share among the six hotel categories.
Upper Midscale hotels have always been major players: In H1 2019 they drew 28.7% of overall hotel visits – the most of any tier. But by H1 2024, their share of visits increased to 31.2%. Upscale Hotels – the second-largest tier – also saw their visit share increase, from 24.8% to 26.1%.
Meanwhile, Economy, Midscale, and Upper Upscale Hotels saw drops in visit share – with Economy chains, unsurprisingly, seeing the biggest decline. Luxury Hotels, for their parts, held firmly onto their piece of the pie, drawing 2.8% of visits in H1 2024.
Who are the visitors fueling the Upper Midscale visit revival? This next section explores shifts in visitor demographics to four Upper Midscale chains that are outperforming pre-pandemic visit levels: Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, Fairfield by Marriott, and Hampton by Hilton.
Analyzing the captured markets* of the four chains with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Much of the Upper Midscale visit growth is being driven by chain expansion. But in some areas of the country, the average number of visits to individual hotel locations is also on the rise – highlighting especially robust growth potential.
Analyzing visits to existing Upper Midscale chains in four metropolitan areas with booming tourism industries – Salt Lake City, UT, Palm Bay, FL, San Diego, CA, and Richmond, VA – shows that these markets feature robust untapped demand.
Utah, for example, has emerged as a tourist hotspot in recent years – with millions of visitors flocking each year to local destinations like Salt Lake City to see the sights and take in the great outdoors. And Upper Midscale hotels in the region are reaping the benefits. In H1 2024, the overall number of visits to Upper Midscale chains in Salt Lake City was 69.4% higher than in H1 2019. Though some of this increase can be attributed to local chain expansion, the average number of visits to each individual Upper Midscale location in the area also rose by 12.5% over the same period.
Palm Bay, FL (the Space Coast) – another tourist favorite – is experiencing a similar trend. Between H1 2019 and H1 2024, overall visits to local Upper Midscale hotel chains grew by 36.4% – while the average number of visits per location increased a substantial 16.9%. Given this strong demand, it may come as no surprise that the area is undergoing a hotel construction boom. Upper Midscale hotels in other areas with flourishing tourism sectors, like San Diego, CA and Richmond, VA, are seeing similar trends, with increases in both overall visits and and in the average number of visits per location.
Though Economy chains have underperformed versus other categories in recent years, the tier does feature some bright spots. Some extended-stay brands in the Economy tier – hotels with perks and amenities that cater to the needs of longer-stay travelers – are succeeding despite category headwinds.
Choice Hotels’ portfolio, for example, includes WoodSpring Suites, an Economy chain offering affordable extended-stay accommodations in 35 states. In H1 2024, the chain drew 7.7% more visits than in the first half of 2019 – even as the wider Economy sector continued to languish. InTown Suites, another Economy extended stay chain, saw visits increase by 8.9% over the same period.
And location intelligence shows that the success of these two chains is likely being driven, in part, by their growing appeal to young, well-educated professionals. In H1 2019, households belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Young Professionals” segment made up 9.6% of WoodSpring Suites’ captured market. But by H1 2024, the share of this group jumped dramatically to 13.3%. At the same time, InTown Suites saw its share of Young Professionals increase from 12.0% to 13.4%.
Whether due to an affinity for prolonged “workcations” (so-called “bleisure” excursions) or an embrace of super-commuting, younger guests have emerged as key drivers of growth for the extended stay segment. And by offering low–cost accommodations that meet the needs of these travelers, Economy chains can continue to grow their share of the pie.
The hospitality industry recovery continues – led by Upper Midscale Hotels, which offer elevated experiences that don’t break the bank. But today’s market has room for other tiers as well. By keeping abreast of local visitation patterns and changing consumer profiles, hotels across chain scales can personalize the visitor experience and drive customer satisfaction.
The past few years have provided the tourism sector with a multitude of headwinds, from pandemic-induced lockdowns to persistent inflation and a rise in extreme weather events. But despite these challenges, people are more excited than ever to travel – more than half of respondents to a recent survey are planning on increasing their travel budgets in the coming months.
And while revenge travel to overseas destinations is still very much alive and well, the often high costs associated with traveling abroad are shaping the way people choose to travel. Domestic travel and tourism are seeing significant growth as more affordable alternatives.
This white paper takes a closer look at two of the most popular domestic tourism destinations in the country – New York City and Los Angeles. Over the past year, both cities have continued to be leading tourism hotspots, offering a wealth of attractions for visitors. What does tourism to these two cities look like in 2024, and what has changed since before the pandemic? How have inflation and rising airfare prices affected the demographics and psychographics of visitors to these major hubs?
Analyzing the distribution of domestic tourists across CBSAs nationwide from May 2023 to April 2024 reveals New York and Los Angeles to be two of the nation’s most popular destinations. (Tourists include overnight visitors staying in a given CBSA for up to 31 days).
The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro area drew the largest share of domestic tourists of any CBSA during the analyzed period (2.7%), followed closely by the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA CBSA (2.5%). Other domestic tourism hotspots included Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (tied for second place with 2.5% of visitors), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (1.9%), Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (1.8%), Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (1.8%), and Chicago-Naperville, Elgin, IL-IN-WI (1.6%).
The Big Apple. The City That Never Sleeps. Empire City. Whatever it’s called, New York City remains one of the most well-known tourist destinations in the world. And for many Americans, New York is the perfect place for an extended weekend getaway – or for a multi-day excursion to see the sights.
But where do these NYC-bound vacationers come from? Diving into the data on the origin of visitors making medium-length trips to New York City (three to seven nights) reveals that increasingly, these domestic tourists are coming from nearby metro areas.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, for example, the number of tourists visiting New York City from the Philadelphia metro area increased by 19.2%.
The number of tourists coming from the Boston and Washington, D.C metro areas, and from the New York CBSA itself (New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA) also increased over the same period.
Meanwhile, further-away CBSAs like San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL fed fewer tourists to NYC in 2023-2024 than they did pre-pandemic. It seems that residents of these more distant metro areas are opting for vacation destinations closer to home to avoid the high costs of air travel.
Diving even deeper into the characteristics of visitors taking medium-length trips to New York City reveals another demographic shift: Tourists staying between three and seven nights in the Big Apple are skewing younger.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of visitors to New York City from areas with median ages under 30 grew from 2.1% to 4.5%. Meanwhile, the share of visitors from areas with median ages between 31 and 40 increased from 34.3% to 37.7%.
The impact of this trend is already being felt in the Big Apple, with The Broadway League reporting that the average age of audiences to its shows during the 2022- 2023 season was the youngest it had been in 20 seasons.
The shift towards younger tourists can also be seen when examining the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular attractions in New York City. Analyzing the captured markets of major NYC landmarks with data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals an increase in households belonging to the “Educated Urbanites” segment between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024.
These well-educated, young singles are increasingly visiting iconic NYC venues such as the Whitney Museum of American Art, The Metropolitan Museum of Art, The American Museum of Natural History, and the Statue of Liberty. This shift highlights the growing popularity of these attractions among young, educated singles, reflecting a broader trend of increased domestic tourism among this demographic.
New York City’s tourism sector is adapting to meet the changing needs of travelers, fueled increasingly by younger visitors who may be unable to take a costly international vacation. How have travel patterns to Los Angeles changed in response to increasing travel costs?
While New York City is the East Coast’s tourism hotspot, Los Angeles takes center stage on the West Coast. And as overseas travel has become increasingly out of reach for Americans with less discretionary income, the share of domestic tourists originating from areas with lower HHIs has risen.
Before the pandemic, 57.6% of visitors to LA came from affluent areas with median household incomes (HHIs) of over $90K/year. But by 2023-2024, this share decreased to 50.7%. Over the same period, the share of visitors from areas with median HHIs between $41K and $60K increased from 9.7% to 12.5%, while the share of visitors from areas with HHIs between $61K and $90K rose from 32.1% to 35.8%.
Diving into the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular Los Angeles attractions – Universal Studios Hollywood, Disneyland California, the Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory – also reflects the above-mentioned shift in HHI. The captured markets of these attractions had higher shares of middle-income households belonging to the “Family Union” psychographic segment in 2023-2024 than in 2018-2019.
Experian: Mosaic defines this segment as “middle income, middle-aged families living in homes supported by solid blue-collar occupations.” Pre-pandemic, 16.0% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from trade areas with high shares of “Family Union” households. This number jumped to 18.8% over the past year. A similar trend occurred at Disneyland, Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory.
And like in New York City, growing numbers of visitors to Los Angeles appear to be coming from nearby areas. Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of in-state visitors to major Los Angeles attractions increased substantially – as people likely sought to cut costs by keeping things local.
Pre-pandemic, for example, 68.9% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from within California – a share that increased to 72.0% over the past year. Similarly, 59.7% of Griffith Observatory visitors in 2018-2019 came from within the state – and by 2023-2024, that number grew to 64.7%.
Even when times are tight, people love to travel – and New York and Los Angeles are two of their favorite destinations. With prices for airfare, hotels, and dining out increasing across the board, younger and more price-conscious households are adapting, choosing to visit nearby cities and enjoy attractions closer to home. And as the tourism industry continues its recovery, understanding emerging visitation trends can help stakeholders meet travelers where they are.
The positive retail momentum observed in Q1 2024 continued into Q2 – as stabilizing prices and a strong job market fostered cautious optimism among consumers. Year-over-year (YoY) retail foot traffic remained elevated throughout the quarter, with June in particular seeing significant weekly visit boosts ranging from 4.7% to 8.5%.
The robustness of the retail sector in Q2 was also highlighted by positive visit growth during the quarter’s special calendar occasions, including Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th) and Memorial Day (the week of May 27th). And though consumer spending may moderate as the year wears on, retail’s strong Q2 showing offers plenty of room for optimism ahead of back-to-school sales and other summer milestones.
On a quarterly basis, overall retail visits rose 4.2% in Q2. And diving into specific categories shows that value continued to reign supreme, with discount and dollar stores seeing the most robust YoY visit growth (11.2%) of any analyzed category.
Other essential goods purveyors, such as grocery store chains (7.6%) and superstores (4.6%), also outperformed the overall retail baseline. And fitness – a category deemed essential by many health-conscious consumers – outpaced overall retail with a substantial 6.0% YoY foot traffic increase.
The decidedly more discretionary home improvement industry performed less well than overall retail in Q2 – but in another sign of consumer resilience, it too experienced a YoY visit uptick. And overall restaurant foot traffic increased 2.6% YoY.
Discount and dollar stores enjoyed a strong Q2 2024, maintaining YoY visit growth above 10.0% for six out of the quarter’s 13 weeks. Only during the week of April 1st did the category see a temporary decline, likely the result of an Easter calendar shift. (The week of April 1st 2024 is being compared to the week of April 3rd, 2023, which included the run-up to Easter)
Some of this growth can be attributed to the continued expansion of segment leaders like Dollar General. But the category has also been bolstered by the emphasis consumers continue to place on value in the face of still-high prices and economic uncertainty.
Dollar General, which has been expanding both its store count and its grocery offerings, saw YoY visits increase between 9.1% and 15.9% throughout the quarter. Affordable-indulgence-oriented Five Below, which has also been adding locations at a brisk clip, saw YoY visits increase between 4.9% and 18.8%.
And though Dollar Tree has taken steps to rightsize its Family Dollar brand, the company’s eponymous banner – which caters to middle-income consumers in suburban areas – continued to grow both its store count and its visits in Q2.
Grocery store chains also performed well in Q2 2024 – experiencing strongly positive foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. Though the sector continues to face its share of challenges, stabilizing food-at-home prices and improvements in employee retention and supply chain management have helped propel the industry forward.
Diving into the performance of specific chains shows that within the grocery segment, too, price was paramount in Q2 2024 – with limited-assortment value grocery stores like Aldi and Trader Joe’s leading the way.
Traditional chains H-E-B and Food Lion (owned by Ahold Delhaize) – both of which are known for relatively low prices – outperformed the wider grocery sector with respective YoY foot traffic boosts of 11.4% and 8.7%. But ShopRite, Safeway (owned by Albertsons), Kroger, and Albertsons also drew more visits in Q2 2024 than in the equivalent period of last year.
Fitness has proven to be relatively inflation-proof in recent years – thriving even in the face of reduced discretionary spending and consumer cutbacks. Indeed, rising prices may have actually helped boost gym attendance, as people sought to squeeze the most value out of their monthly fees and replace pricy outings with already-paid-for gym excursions.
And despite lapping a remarkably strong 2023, visits to gyms nationwide remained elevated YoY in Q2 2024.
Diving into the data for some of the nation’s leading gyms shows that today’s fitness market has plenty of room at the top. Planet Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, Life Time Fitness, Orangetheory Fitness, and LA Fitness all experienced YoY visit growth in Q2 2024 – reflecting consumers’ enduring interest in all things wellness-related.
But it was EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness – two value gyms that have been pursuing aggressive expansion strategies – that really hit it out of the park, with respective YoY foot traffic increases of 23.4% and 21.4%.
The week of April 1st saw a decline in YoY visits to superstores – likely attributable to the Easter calendar shift noted above. But the category quickly rallied, and with back-to-school shopping and major superstore sales events coming up this July, the category appears poised to enjoy continued success throughout the summer.
Within the superstore category, wholesale clubs continued to stand out – with Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club enjoying YoY foot traffic growth ranging from 12.0% to 7.4%. But Target and Walmart also impressed with 4.6% and 4.0% YoY visit increases.
Inflation, elevated interest rates, and a sluggish real estate market have created a perfect storm for the home improvement industry, with spending on renovations in decline. The accelerated return to office has likely also taken its toll on the category, as people spend more time outside the home and have less availability to immerse themselves in DIY projects.
But despite these challenges, weekly YoY foot traffic to home improvement and furnishing chains remained elevated throughout much of the Q2 – with June and April seeing mostly positive YoY visit growth, and May hovering just below 2023 levels. This (modest) visit growth may be driven by consumers loading up on supplies for necessary home repairs, or by shoppers seeking materials for smaller projects. And given the importance of Q2 for the home improvement sector, this largely positive snapshot may offer some promise of good things to come.
Some chains within the home improvement category continued to perform especially well in Q2 2024 – with rapidly expanding, budget-oriented Harbor Freight Tools leading the pack. But Ace Hardware, Menards, The Home Depot, and Lowe’s also saw foot traffic increases in Q2, showcasing the category’s resilience in the face of headwinds.
Restaurants – including full-service restaurants (FSR), quick-service restaurants (QSR), fast-casual chains, and coffee chains – lagged behind grocery stores and other essential goods retailers in Q2 2024, as price-sensitive consumers prioritized needs over wants and ate at home more often.
Still, YoY restaurant foot traffic remained up throughout most of the quarter. And impressively, the sector saw a YoY visit uptick during the week of Mother’s Day (the week of May 6th, 2024, compared to the week of May 8th, 2023) – an important milestone for FSR.
The restaurant industry’s YoY visit growth was felt across segments – though fast-casual and coffee chains experienced the biggest visit boosts. Like in Q1 2024, fast-casual restaurants hit the sweet spot between indulgence and affordability, outpacing QSR in the wake of fast food price hikes. And building on the positive YoY trendline that began to emerge last quarter, full-service restaurants finished Q2 2024 with a 1.4% YoY visit uptick.
Chain expansion was the name of the restaurant game in Q2 2024, with several chains that have been growing their footprints outperforming segment averages – including CAVA, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Ziggi’s Coffee, California-based Philz Coffee, Raising Cane’s, Whataburger, and First Watch. Chili’s Grill and Bar also outpaced the full-service category average, aided by the revamping of its “3 for Me” menu.
Retailers and restaurants in Q2 2024 continued to face plenty of challenges, from inflation to rising labor costs and volatile consumer confidence. But foot traffic trends across industries – including both essential goods purveyors like grocery stores and more discretionary categories like home improvement and restaurants – suggest plenty of room for cautious optimism as 2024 wears on.
