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So far, 2025 has completely shifted the retail industry away from its status quo. Sectors that appeared to be on the rise at the end of 2024 have seen a stall in momentum, while others that faced challenging terrain last year have found some new opportunities. Economic uncertainty and changes in consumer sentiment have pushed consumers to be even more value oriented than we observed over the last two years.
Consumers are also looking to prepare themselves appropriately for future headwinds; in many cases this change is reflected in the types of retailers shopped. One sector of non-discretionary retail that had been at the forefront of this trend over the past few years has been dollar & discount chains. This group of retailers benefited from increasing inflationary pressures and an enhanced consumer focus on value. Beyond changing consumer behaviors, the sector also expanded the number of store locations and range of communities covered across the country, which brought more value-centered options to shoppers beyond superstores.
Last year (2024) represented a shift in the dollar & discount category, with visitation decelerating throughout the year according to Placer’s foot traffic estimates. Market saturation, challenges within individual chains, and the constriction of buying power among lower income households all contributed to a year that wasn’t up to expectations. However, 2025 has proven to be a new opportunity for chains to regain their footing with consumers.
Year-to-date, the industry is running up 3% in visits compared to the same period last year; while this isn’t necessarily far off the trends in 2024, it certainly is outperforming other non-discretionary sectors. Looking at the performance by retail chain reveals that Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Five Below are all overperforming the total category as well.
One trend that has continued from 2024 for top performing chains is consumer loyalty. Dollar General and Dollar Tree have seen an increase in loyal visitors, defined as visiting three or more times per month, compared to last year. Dollar General specifically also has a very high level of loyal visitors, with 36% of visitors shopping three times per month. Dollar stores fill a distinct need in shoppers’ retail rolodex, and especially as chains focus on expanding their assortments, the value proposition for customers becomes further cemented.
Dollar chains are primed to be an asset to consumers as economic and financial uncertainty continues, but consumers may also continue to be more discerning overall. Dollar chains must continue to innovate and expand assortments, particularly in grocery, to stay competitive as warehouse clubs and superstores also vie for attention.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
The drugstore and pharmacy space has faced significant challenges in recent years, and recently, Rite Aid announced that it would be closing all its locations. We took a look at the location intelligence for Rite Aid and the chains buying its closing locations to see how this closure might affect visits to the other chains.
The past few years have seen a dramatic shift in the way people purchase their prescriptions and other health-related sundries – and Rite Aid, in particular, was heavily affected by this shift. The chain had made several attempts over the past few years to rightsize and restructure in hopes of turning around its fortunes. But in May 2025, amidst bankruptcy proceedings, the company announced it would be closing all of its remaining locations and selling its business – primarily to CVS Pharmacy, with some going to Walgreens, Albertsons, Kroger, and Giant Eagle.
Rite Aid had already spent much of 2023 and 2024 closing stores, a factor that certainly fueled its 37.2% year-over-year (YoY) dip in foot traffic in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, CVS – which has also been closing stores – saw its visits and visits per location grow in Q1 2025, by 2.6% and 5.1%, respectively. And Walgreens, in the midst of its own rightsizing moves, experienced relatively flat visit numbers, with only minor YoY dips.
CVS is poised to be a major beneficiary of Rite Aid’s closure, taking over business from hundreds of its locations. And a look at demographic and psychographic data shows that the move stands to offer CVS greater access to older consumers – a key demographic in the pharmacy space. Rite Aid’s stores also attract a more middle-income shopper, helping to broaden CVS’ customer base.
A look at geographic segmentation data shows that CVS’s assumption of Rite Aid business will also grant it greater inroads into semirural and urban audiences.
Rite Aid has its largest presence in California (347 stores), Pennsylvania (345 locations), and New York (178 stores). And data from Esri: Tapestry Segmentation highlights differences in where shoppers at the two drugstore chains tend to come from – both nationwide and in its major markets.
CVS sees higher shares of “Suburban Periphery” visitors in all the analyzed markets, while Rite Aid sees higher shares of “Semirural” visitor segments, both nationwide and across its largest markets. This reinforces that CVS stands to significantly expand its footprint in less dense, semi-rural communities by acquiring Rite Aid assets.
While some common threads can be seen across visitor types by state, there are also notable differences, highlighting the importance of diversification across geographic segments for comprehensive market coverage. For instance, in New York, Rite Aid holds a higher share of visitors from “Principal Urban Centers” (18.8%) than CVS (13.3%). This suggests CVS may be able to expand both its semirural and urban reach as it assumes Rite Aid's former customer base.
Rite Aid’s closure highlights the challenges facing the retail healthcare segment – but it also opens up new opportunities for other chains as they absorb these closed stores.
What will the retail pharmacy and healthcare segment look like in the coming months? Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
First Eataly opened introducing patrons to the delights of freshly made pasta, mozzarella, and delectable ragu. With its all-in-one grocery and food hall appeal, one could savor delicacies from different regions of Italy. Jose Andres also raised the bar with his Mercado Little Spain at Hudson Yards, transporting you to Spain with its jamon iberico, crowd favorite Jaleo, and a host of Spanish restaurants. Now we cross culinary continents over to Asia as Jagalchi Food Hall and Grocery Store opens at Serramonte Center in Daly City, to the joy of aficionados of Korean food.
At 75,000 sq ft, Jagalchi takes over a former JCPenney store. Inside, separate seafood, meat, and produce areas await. The butcher offers high-end meats like Japanese A5 wagyu ribeye. At the oyster bar, one can find oysters and sushi. For those wanting hot food, snacks like freshly fried Korean pancakes, fried potato swirls, rose tteokboki and mandu (meat dumplings) are available for purchase.
In the middle of the store is a Michelin starred restaurant, Pogu, where diners can choose from authentic Korean dishes with a contemporary twist, such as eel bibimbap, seafood and tofu hotpot, and buckwheat noodles.
To further enhance the feeling of a jaunt to Korea, K-pop music wafts through the air and a large selection of K-beauty is available to peruse. Shoppers note the modern interior and trendy vibe with some calling it the Erewhon of Korean grocery stores. To add to the experiential feeling, there are carts labeled with street food that give you that Asian night-market alley feeling. And to complete the culinary experience, Jagalchi offers a wide variety of sool, or Korean rice wines, such as makgeolli or soju.
No meal would be complete without dessert and Jagalchi has an onsite bakery, Basquia, which features rice-flour baked goodies. Crowd pleasers include strawberry sulpang, made of a special sweet and fluffy bread with hints of rice wine flavoring, as well as the latest viral sensation, Dubai chocolate. Another cross-cultural sweet treat is the Su Jeong Gwa latte w/oat milk, which basically is a Korean horchata.
Jagalchi opened on March 28, 2025 (Friday), and the first Saturday, March 29, 2025 resulted in a 60% visitation increase compared to Saturday, Jan 4, 2025. The hype has died down a bit, but overall traffic visitation levels are averaging at least 30% higher on Saturdays compared to pre-opening.
Whereas Serramonte Center was facing declining year-over-year visit trends in the first quarter of the year, the opening of Jagachi has provided a jolt of excitement for the shopping center, putting it into positive year-over-year traffic for the last month.
An additional benefit for Serramonte Center is that Jagachi is attracting a higher proportion of wealthy segments, such as Educated Urbanites and Ultra Wealthy Families, which could potentially result in additional cross-shopping among patrons with more disposable income.
In closing, as shopping centers experiment with new tenants for anchor closures for department stores, opportunity awaits with new brands and concepts such as experiential food halls and grocery stores.
For more data-driven retail and dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Memorial Day – the unofficial start of the summer season – is typically accompanied by major retail promotions and movie releases. We dove into the visit data to see how consumers celebrated the holiday and see how brick-and-mortar retail traffic compared to last year's numbers.
Memorial Day weekend brought a visit boost to retail chains nationwide, with the holiday's impact already felt on Friday, May 23rd 2025 as traffic spiked 10.0% compared to the YTD (January 1st to May 26th) Friday average. But comparing the data with last year's numbers shows that year-over-year (YoY) visits remained essentially flat.
Critically, this stability in Memorial Day week retail visits follows several weeks of year-over-year (YoY) traffic increases, likely due to consumer pull-forward of demand. So the fact that consumers still came out to shop Memorial Day sales – even after weeks of increased activity – suggests that brick-and-mortar retail remains resilient despite the wider macroeconomic shifts.
Diving into the apparel industry reveals that traditional apparel received a healthy Memorial Boost. And sportswear and athleisure – which may carry a slightly higher price point – saw the largest Memorial Day spikes compared to the year-to-date (YTD) average as shoppers took advantage of holiday promotions.
Meanwhile, off-price retailers saw relatively muted boosts compared to the YTD numbers, perhaps because shoppers prioritized time-sensitive bargains over the off-price segment's regular discounts. But the category saw a substantial increase in YoY visits, demonstrating consumers' ongoing value orientation.
Memorial Day is also a time for getting together with family and friends – often over a barbecue, picnic, or other food-forward events. As a result, grocery stores, BevAlc retailers, discount & dollar stores, and superstores all received traffic boosts compared to the YTD average, with BevAlc seeing the largest spike in visits.
Grocery stores, BevAlc retailers, and discount & dollar stores also saw YoY visit increases – perhaps suggesting an increase in Memorial Day socializing compared to 2024.
While several retail categories saw significant Memorial Day-driven visit boosts, the largest increase in traffic by a long shot went to movie theaters. Combined visits to AMC, Regal, and Cinemark were up 423.6% on Monday, May 26th 2025 compared to the YTD Sunday average, with combined weekly visits to the three chains up 92.4% for the week.
The Memorial Day visit spikes – likely driven by the success of new releases such as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and Lilo & Stitch follow weeks of high traffic as films including A Minecraft Movie and Sinners drove significant traffic increases at movie theaters nationwide.
This ongoing movie theater momentum suggests that, despite past concerns about streaming and changing consumer habits, the theatrical experience continues to hold significant appeal.
Overall, the Memorial Day 2025 data paints a picture of a resilient consumer ready to engage with both retail promotions and entertainment experiences. The data also suggests that, while brick-and-mortar retail continues to attract consumers on retail milestones, entertainment is reclaiming its role as a powerful draw for holiday spending.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
When we reviewed March 2025 visitation data for industrial manufacturing facilities across the U.S. – encompassing visits from both employees and logistics partners – our data indicated an uptick in activity. Notably, many industrial manufacturers, particularly in sectors like aerospace, automotive, and packaging, increased activity as they proactively ramped up production in anticipation of potential tariff-related disruptions.
While the official U.S. Census Bureau data on manufacturing new orders for April and May 2025 is not yet available (with April's full M3 report expected around June 3rd and May's around July 3rd), visitation data from our industrial manufacturing composite for April 2025 was reflective of the evolving tariff landscape that many manufacturers have faced the past several weeks. Overall, our industrial manufacturing composite for April and early May 2025 indicates that visits to manufacturing facilities have decreased year-over-year.
Several factors could contribute to this decrease: (1) general consumer uncertainty about the economy, which has impacted retail visits this year and may be dampening industrial demand; and (2) previously announced extensions to some tariff implementation dates, which might have led businesses to pause or adjust orders. Separately, the tariff environment saw a new development with the temporary reduction in certain U.S.-China tariffs enacted in mid-May; this change may lead to shifts in activity going forward but would not explain the decrease observed in April and early May.
Were there manufacturing categories that saw greater year-over-year visitation trends than others? Unsurprisingly, categories that are potentially impacted by tariff activity – such as metals (including steel and aluminum) and electrical equipment – continued to see the greatest year-over-year increase in visits in April as manufacturers accelerated production ahead of tariff implementations or companies switched to goods produced in the United States (as shown below). General Dynamics, Howmet Aeropace, U.S. Steel, Nucor, and Powell Industries were among the manufacturers that stood out with respect to visit activity during April 2025.
Our previous analysis of Ford and General Motors manufacturing facilities indicated an uptick in visitation during late March and early April 2025. This surge likely reflected an effort by these automakers to accelerate production and build inventory ahead of significant tariff changes, including the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles that took effect on April 3rd and anticipated levies on auto parts.
However, in subsequent weeks, our visitation data indicated a return to more typical visitation levels for both manufacturers. These more subdued year-over-year visit trends likely indicate a period of adjustment and caution, aligning with the broader market uncertainty. The considerable financial impact from tariffs also led both Ford and General Motors to revise their 2025 financial guidance in early May, despite some discussions around partial tariff relief measures during that period.
Given the fluid and constantly evolving landscape for industrial manufacturers, what are the key takeaways? Our data shows a clear pull-forward in demand among manufacturers during March, as they ramped up production schedules ahead of tariff implementations, especially in sectors like metals and aerospace. However, this initial surge was followed by a cooling off in activity during April and early May, likely stemming from general tariff uncertainty.
Keep up with The Anchor to see where industrial manufacturing activity heads next.
Discount and dollar stores have enjoyed unprecedented success over the past few years as economic uncertainty continues to weigh on consumers’ minds – and wallets. We took a look at two discount players, Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, to see where the two are holding as the first half of 2025 draws to a close.
Five Below and Ollie’s were major winners in 2024, with visits to both chains elevated on a consistent basis. Both chains also aggressively expanded their footprints: Ollie's Bargain Outlet acquired around 40 leases from Big Lots, while Five Below opened a remarkable 227 new stores in 2024, with plans for another 150 in 2025.
Their strong positions were clearly reflected in Q1 2025 visit data. Five Below saw foot traffic climb 6.1% YoY, and Ollie's visits grew by 12.4%. Average visits per location were more mixed: Five Below's dipped by 4.6%, while Ollie's Bargain Market maintained momentum with a 4.6% YoY increase.
As its name suggests, Five Below primarily sells items for $5 or less, offering strong value at a time of rising prices – and customers are clearly responding. Five Below's monthly visits remained elevated throughout 2025, peaking in April with a 20.4% YoY increase. Monthly visits per location experienced more fluctuation, dipping in February and March while remaining elevated in January (+1.6%) and April (+10.1%).
Diving into the geographic segments as defined by Esri offers insight into the type of visitor that comes to Five Below – and what it might mean as the chain continues its expansion plans. Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2025, the share of visitors coming to Five Below from "Rural" and "Semi-Rural" areas increased, while the share from "Suburban Periphery" areas declined. This trend aligns with Five Below's deliberate focus on rural and semi-rural locations – a strategic choice likely influenced by existing customer behavior patterns – and might inform where the chain chooses to open its new locations in the coming years.
Foot traffic to Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was elevated for the first few months of 2025. Monthly visits experienced consistent YoY growth, and while average visits per location declined slightly in February 2025, they picked up immediately, ending April 2025 with 8.9% more visits per location than in April 2024. Some of this growth may be coming from its recent expansions – the chain opened 50 new stores in 2024.
While Ollie's differs from Five Below in terms of its product selection and price points, both chains share similarities in the demographic makeup of their visitors. The share of visitors coming from rural trade areas across the income spectrum, as defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset, was higher in Ollie’s captured markets than in its potential markets*. Meanwhile, the share of “Young Urban Singles” and “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” was lower in Ollie’s captured market than in its potential market.
This highlights the strength that the chain has among all kinds of rural visitor segments, and can help inform the chains’ expansion strategy as it grows its footprint in 2025 and beyond.
*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.
Five Below and Ollie’s are holding onto their 2024 gains thus far into 2025. With dozens of stores slated to open in the coming months, will the two retailers continue to grow their foot traffic?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
