.svg)
Sprouts Farmers Market, the Phoenix, Arizona-based natural foods chain with some 419 locations across 23 states – up from 391 in July 2023 – is firmly in expansion mode. The chain reported a strong Q2 2024, including a 6.7% increase in comparable store sales.
But how did Sprouts perform in Q3? We dove into the data to find out.
Given its rapidly-growing footprint, Sprouts’ strong year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth – 8.1% in Q3 2024, far above the industry average of 1.6% – may seem unremarkable. After all, a bigger fleet means more locations to contribute to the chain’s overall visit count. But for Sprouts, expansion is just part of the story. Throughout Q3 and most of Q2, the average number of visits to each of Sprouts Farmers Market’s locations also increased YoY, showing that the chain’s growing store count is meeting robust demand. And though the wider grocery space also saw a YoY uptick in visits per location, the increase was significantly lower (1.0% in Q3 for the segment as a whole, compared to 2.6% for Sprouts).
What can Sprouts expect this holiday season? In the past, location analytics have shown that while Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is a major milestone for traditional grocery stores, specialty grocers like Trader Joe’s see smaller visit peaks on the big day.
But though Sprouts Farmers Market is certainly positioned as a specialty grocer, it is somewhat more akin to a traditional supermarket than key competitors like Trader Joe’s. For one thing, Sprouts boasts a wider array of merchandise than Trader Joe’s – including a huge selection of fresh, organic fruits and vegetables. And while Sprouts has been leaning heavily into its growing portfolio of private-label products, they still account for a minority of the chain’s revenue (In Q2 2024, just about 20% of Sprouts’ revenue came from private-label items – while at Trader Joe’s, some 80% of products sold are own-label.)
Perhaps as a result of these differences, consumers interact with Sprouts in some ways as they would with a traditional supermarket – including during the holidays. On November 22nd, 2023, for example (last year’s Turkey Wednesday), visits to Sprouts were up 61.3% compared to the chain’s daily average for the 12-month period ending September 30th, 2024 – making it Sprouts’ busiest day of the year by far. Though this jump was smaller than the 79.2% visit spike seen by the wider grocery store category, it was significantly larger than the 41.8% boost experienced by Trader Joe’s – which draws more traffic on the day before Mother’s Day. (December 23rd was the second-busiest day of the year for all three.)
Additionally, like traditional grocery stores, Sprouts Farmers Market attracts more parental households, and fewer singles, than Trader Joe’s – another reason, perhaps, why it’s so busy on Turkey Wednesday.
Over the past twelve months, the share of families with children in Sprouts’ captured market stood at 27.8% – higher than Trader Joe’s 25.4% and in line with the industry-wide average of 27.4%. On the flip side, the share of one-person households in Sprouts’ captured market was 26.2%, lower than Trader Joe’s 29.5%, and once again more closely aligned with the somewhat-higher 27.7% observed for the grocery category as a whole. As a family-friendly chain that caters to parents on the hunt for healthy food items, Sprouts will likely be a key destination this year for households seeking to load up on ingredients for the holidays.
*Captured market analysis weights each census block group (CBG) feeding visits to the chain according to its share in the chain’s overall foot traffic – thus reflecting the profile of the chain’s actual visitor base.
Sprouts Farmers Market is a specialty grocer– but one that is often treated like a traditional supermarket. With stellar YoY visit and visit-per-location performance under its belt, Sprouts appears poised to be a stand-out beneficiary of both Turkey Wednesday and the day before Christmas Eve (December 23rd) this year. What else lies in store for Sprouts this year?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Fast-casual dining chain CAVA has had a great few years. The restaurant chain, which serves up health and flavor-forward Mediterranean fare, has increased its footprint massively over the past few years, and shows no signs of slowing down.
We took a closer look at the location intelligence data to understand what is driving success for the fast-casual dining chain.
CAVA, which has been opening restaurants at a rapid clip, is firmly in expansion mode. The restaurant chain featured 341 restaurants at the end of Q2 2024 – up from roughly 300 at the end of 2023 – and has set its sights on operating 1,000 locations by 2032.
Partly as a result of its growing footprint, CAVA’s foot traffic – already elevated in 2023 – has continued to surge throughout 2024. The chain achieved double-digit year-over-year (YoY) visit growth during every month of the year so far, with September visits up 24.9% YoY. By comparison, the broader fast-casual dining sector – which is also thriving – saw more modest YoY visit growth over the same period, as well as some minor YoY declines in January and September.
Still, though much of CAVA’s YoY foot traffic growth may be attributed to its rapid expansion – after all, more restaurants mean more opportunities for diners to try a lemon chicken or harissa avocado bowl – CAVA’s individual locations are also drawing more traffic. In all but one month of 2024 – January, when inclement weather led to a retail slowdown nationwide – the average number of visits to each CAVA restaurant also rose significantly. And in August and September 2024, visits per location grew by 15.0% and 9.9% YoY, respectively.
These trends suggest that CAVA’s expansion strategy is leaning into robust demand – and has succeeded in generating excitement and visit growth in both new and existing markets.
One factor that may be helping CAVA drive traffic is the growing diversity of its customer base. Analyzing changes in CAVA’s captured market over time with demographics from STI: PopStats shows that the median household income (HHI) of the brand’s visitor base has dropped over the past few years. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each census block group (CBG) in its trade area according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of the business’ actual visitor base.) In Q3 2021, the median HHI of CAVA’s captured market was $107.5k – much higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. But as the chain has expanded, the median HHI of its visitor base has steadily declined, reaching $92.3K by Q3 2024.
Similarly, using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to look at the psychographic makeup of CAVA’s trade areas reveals that the share of “Ultra-Wealthy Families” in the chain’s captured market has also declined – from 22.9% 2021 to 17.1% in 2024. At the same time, the share of “Young Urban Singles” grew from 5.4% to 7.3%.
This shift suggests that as CAVA expands, it is welcoming a broader and more diverse customer base – positioning it for continued growth as it opens new locations.
CAVA continues to exceed expectations, opening stores at a rapid clip while maintaining visit numbers and appealing to an ever-growing range of customers.
What might the final quarter of the year hold in store for the fast-casual chain?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up to date with the latest data-driven dining insights.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
If you’ve been to your local recreation center or even shopping center lately, pickleball is definitely still going on strong. Invented in 1965 on Bainbridge Island, for many decades it was considered more of a seniors’ recreational activity. But with the recent explosion of interest and proliferation of courts, we may be about to see the same snowboarding vs skiing battle that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, except instead of the young punks carving down the slopes, it’s people of all ages carving out Pickleball courts with tape to the dismay of their tennis-loving brethren and sound-sensitive neighbors.
According to the Sports and Fitness Industry Association (SFIA), “pickleball continues to be the fastest growing sport in America, having grown 51.8% from 2022 to 2023 and an incredible 223.5% in 4 years since 2020.” The sport has some similarities to tennis, table tennis, and badminton, but one reason it has become so popular is the social nature of it - often played as doubles - and the fact that since the court is smaller, there’s less running to engage in, but there is still the excitement of rapid volleying. The ability to serve underhand also makes it more accessible to new players.
Pickleball America bills itself as “one of the largest indoor pickleball venues in America” and with 80,000 sq ft at the Stamford Town Center, it clearly can live up to that claim. With clever events like “Dinko de Mayo” or resident events to bring a nearby living community together, pickleball could just be the glue that starts to bring people together for socialization and cure the loneliness epidemic. Indoor pickleball venues can also be a source of family fun, with lounges and fresh popcorn available, as well as foosball, table tennis, and essential board games.
Another sport that may be giving tennis and pickleball a run for its money is padel. This sport has the unique benefit of one being able to hit shots off the fence or wall, often made of glass or mesh, that is at the perimeter. So now we’re talking 3D thinking as one figures out what angles to hit.
One can fit about 2 padel courts on a tennis court, and up to 4 pickleball courts on a tennis court. So from an economics perspective, you can definitely charge for more people when playing padel or pickleball. Padel is described more as a mix of tennis, squash, and badminton and is the fastest-growing sport globally with over 25 million players in 90+ countries, per PadAthletes. At P1 Padel in Las Vegas, NV, the most popular times to frequent are in the evening from 6-8 PM. There is also a morning contingent between 9-11 AM.
Padel players at this location are quite loyal, with a majority coming 30+ times in the past 12 months.
With pickleball and padel nipping at its heels, the USTA (US Tennis Association) is fighting back with its own version of more accessible tennis, namely “red ball.” With a smaller court, a smaller racket, and balls that are up to 75% slower, this version helps newbies obtain control over the ball more quickly and has less ground to cover for those lateral runs and quick pivots. Schroeder Tennis Center in Tipp City, OH is one such location that is participating in this USTA pilot program. The bulk of visits are between 4-8 pm, which are prime post-school or post-work hours. According to the Tennis Industry Association, 23.8 million Americans ages 6 and older played tennis at least once in 2023 and 25.1 million Americans who didn’t play tennis in 2023 are “very interested” in doing so now.
Tennis has a long and storied history and iconic locations like Wimbledon and Roland Garros. What young tennis player doesn’t dream of their moment on Center Court? Tennis also has associations with country clubs and networking. It will likely remain the king of racquet sports. But these two new princes of pickleball and padel prove that tennis cannot just rest on its laurels but will need to evolve in order to stay competitive.
We’re in the midst of not only the beginning of the holiday season in retail, but also at the peak of wedding season. September and October are now the most popular months to get married, and fall weddings have become extremely popular with younger generations. Wedding planning encompasses so many different occasions, events and appointments, but none more important than wedding dress shopping.
The bridal retail space across the U.S. is incredibly fragmented, with much of the business being done by local boutiques and small chains with a handful of stores. However, there are still major retailers in the market and more entering each year. Brands in apparel have especially taken note with Abercrombie & Fitch, Reformation and e-commerce brands like Lulus all making a play at capturing a bride’s attention.
Two larger, more established forces in bridal retail include David’s Bridal and Anthropologie Weddings (formerly known as BHLDN). Both concepts have distinct value propositions for their consumers, but both aim at providing an elevated assortment and experience that is also value oriented. As value continues to be a motivating factor across all consumer decision making, both of these retailers have seen positive momentum in 2024.
Looking at year-over-year change in visitation, Anthropologie Weddings locations have consistently seen traffic growth in 2024 and have outperformed the total chain from a visitation perspective. The wedding shop is not located in all Anthropologie stores, but the stores that do have the concept cater to a higher income and trendy consumer; the location selection of towns such as Newport Beach, Westport, CT, and Newton, MA has certainly benefited the stores.
The median household income of visits to Anthropologie weddings is $117K compared to $94K chainwide. Despite the higher income profile of visitors to the wedding focused stores, Anthropologie Weddings still does appeal to value-conscious brides, despite socioeconomic status; most bridal gowns are under $2,500, which is still relatively affordable based on the industry standard.
Looking at the audience segmentation of visitors to Anthropologie Weddings compared to the total chain using PersonaLive, the wedding shops saw almost double the share of visits from Educated Urbanites, a key segment for a bridal business to not only capture, but convert. All of this highlights the success of the brand’s wedding strategy, from its location selection, to assortment and experience, which are distinctly Anthropologie, but also fitting of a special trip. Other retailers looking to make a splash in the bridal market should certainly look to Anthropologie as a case study in brand extension.
David’s Bridal had a challenging start to 2024, mirroring a few years of challenging foot traffic to its stores. However, around the midpoint of the year, there’s been an acceleration in visitation across the chain. Looking at visitation trends for 2023 and 2024, the brand started to close the gap in August. As a true value centered bridal retailer, the brand may have found its moment in the current economic climate.
Looking at the change in visitation throughout 2024, from January to July, on average, visits were down 32% YoY; from August through the most recent week, visits were down only 2% year-over-year. That’s a great improvement in trend against the backdrop of a challenging year, and even more interesting when thinking about the lead time brides have for ordering wedding gowns; most dresses for fall weddings would have been ordered in the winter or spring months, where David’s Bridal sees higher levels of visitation.
.avif)
The audience segmentation of the brand has also shifted over that time. Compared to 2023 as a benchmark, the period of August 2024 through present has seen a higher share of visits from Suburban Boomers and Melting Pot Families, and a slight increase in Young Professionals. The brand also stocks special occasion and homecoming dresses, which both could appeal to these groups.
Using Placer’s Frequent Co-Tenants report, David’s Bridal locations tend to be co-located with other specialty retailers, including Five Below, Ulta Beauty, and Ross Dress for Less, who are also value oriented and the latter two retailers have been doing well in securing more traffic. The stores may have benefits from their co-location with retailers that meet current consumer desires.
Weddings continue to be a big business across the U.S., and retailers that support the wedding industry have a lot of opportunities for growth, if they can find and appeal to the right consumer cohorts. Brides of all levels are looking for an elevated experience and selection, no matter her budget.
We’ve spent a lot of time this past year analyzing how consumer behavior has evolved across the broader food and essentials category, noting that consumers continue to shop a wide number of stores across multiple channels for food purchases. With the release of Placer Data Version 2.1, we thought we’d revisit the topic.
Below, we’ve presented total category visits for grocery stores (including both conventional and value grocery chains), superstores (including mass merchants and warehouse clubs), gas stations and convenience stores, dollar and discount stories (including liquidators), drugstores, quick-service restaurants (QSR), and full-service restaurants from 2019 to the trailing-twelve-month period (TTM0. A few takeaways: (1) Dollar stores saw the largest increase in total visits versus the other categories as they vastly expanded their food and consumables offering since 2019 to drive frequency and traffic. However, the pace of growth has decelerated materially over the past twelve months amid increased competitive pressure from superstore and value-oriented retailers like Aldi and 99 Cents Only Stores exiting the market; (2) drugstore visits have remained flat versus 2019 despite most of the major chains in the category undergoing store closure programs. We believe healthcare service and weight-loss drug prescriptions visits have helped to offset some of the store closures, although we continue to see some transfer of visits to other retail categories in this channel; and (3) the decline in full-service restaurants is partly due to permanent closures compared to 2019.
It gets interesting when we compare category-level retail sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau to our visitation data. Below, we’ve taken retail sales (on an unadjusted basis) for the same timeframe that we looked at above to analyze retail spend per visit. A few things stand out here: (1) Three categories saw the average retail sales per visit increase period of the analysis: QSR, full-service restaurants, and drugstores. The increase in drugstores is likely partly to due with the shift in sales mix to more healthcare related services, while the increase in QSR and full-service restaurant retail sales per visit likely explain this summer’s promotional activity to win back customers who traded to other channels; (2) The impact of increased promotional activity and fewer units purchased per transaction can be seen across the other categories, where we saw an inflection in retail sales per visit in 2023 and continuing into 2024 for most.
We also thought we’d assess dwell times across the different food and essentials retail categories (for purposes of this analysis, we’ve removed full-service restaurants, which have gone from an average dwell time of 52 minutes in 2019 to 49 minutes over the past twelve months, although we continue to see fine-dining chain dwell times exceed pre-pandemic levels as consumers look to maximize their experience when dining out). Here, we also see two callouts: (1) As consumers make food purchases across a wider number of channels, dwell time has decreased for most, matching the decrease in units per transaction that we've called out in the past. We did see dwell times increase for a few categories during the back half of 2023 which we believe was due to consumers engaging in price comparisons, but this has reversed in 2024 as consumers have now solidified new shopping routines (i.e., knowing what stores to get what deals); and (2) QSR dwell time remains below pre-pandemic levels, which isn’t surprising given that a higher percentage of transactions are now taking place via drive-thru and takeout orders. However, the increase in dwell time the past few years also suggests the potential for improved drive-thru optimization, a topic we recently analyzed.
Carter’s Inc., owner of the OshKosh B’gosh and Carter’s baby and children’s clothing brands, is a major player in the nation’s $28 billion children's clothing industry. As of the end of 2023, the company boasted nearly 800 physical stores throughout the U.S. And after closing hundreds of stores in 2020, the brand is back to betting big on brick-and-mortar – with plans to open some 250 new U.S. locations by 2027.
How is Carter's faring in 2024? We took a closer look to find out.
Discretionary spending cutbacks and the rise of online shopping have weighed on apparel retailers in recent years. But some clothing chains – including Carter’s – are bucking the trend. Between January and September 2024, monthly visits to Carter’s stores generally outpaced the wider apparel industry, with some months posting double-digit growth.
March and August 2024 saw respective YoY visit increases of 16.0% and 14.4%, likely driven by pre-Easter and back-to-school shopping. (March and August 2024 each also had one more Saturday than March or August 2023 – a busy day for clothing stores.) And Carter’s finished out Q3 2024 with a 4.3% YoY visit increase, even as the broader apparel category saw just a minor 0.8% uptick.
Indeed, examining weekly foot traffic to Carter's highlights the seasonality of the company’s visitation patterns. Visits are typically lower during the colder winter months but pick up in anticipation of Easter and spring break – likely encouraged by spring sales held by the brand.
Carter’s real spike, however, comes during the back-to-school season, when parents head to the store to pick up new clothing for the school year – and when Carter's holds major back-to-school sales. During the week of August 5th, foot traffic surged to 29.5% above the year-to-date (YTD) weekly visit average. And with the holiday season fast approaching – including major retail milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday – the children's retailer appears poised to enjoy continued success.
Unsurprisingly, Carter's attracts family segments to its stores, and over-indexes for wealthy and suburban family markets.
Using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to analyze Carter's trade areas reveals that, on a nationwide level, the company’s captured market has higher shares of wealthy and suburban consumer segments than its potential one. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base).
Between January and September 2024, the shares of “Wealthy Suburban Families” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” in Carter's captured market stood at 12.5% and 8.9%, respectively – outpacing the company’s potential market shares. This highlights Carter's’ success in attracting these high-income family segments. Meanwhile, households hailing from “Blue Collar Suburbs” were underrepresented in Carter's captured market compared to its potential one. This suggests that, as Carter’s continues to open stores, targeting blue collar suburban areas may pay off for the brand.
Carter's is managing not just to survive, but to thrive. After closing stores during the pandemic, the company is back with full force, driving visits and maximizing high-traffic periods.
Will Carter's continue to outpace the wider apparel category during the upcoming holiday season?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail insights.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven civic news.
Convenience stores, or c-stores, have been one of the more exciting retail categories to watch over the past few years. The segment has undergone significant shifts, embracing more diverse offerings like fresh food and expanded dining options, while also exploring new markets and adapting to changing consumer needs. We looked at the recent foot traffic data to see what this category's successes reveal about the current state of brick-and-mortar retail.
Convenience stores are increasingly viewed not only as places to fuel up, but as affordable destinations for quick meals, snacks, and other necessities. And analyzing monthly visits to the category shows that it is continuing to benefit from its positioning as a stop for food, fuel, and in some cases, tourism.
Despite lapping a strong H1 2023, visits to the category either exceeded last year’s levels or held steady during all but one of the first eight months of 2024 – highlighting the segment’s ongoing strength. Only in January 2024 did C-stores see a slight YoY dip, likely reflecting a weather-induced exaggeration of the segment’s normal seasonality.
Indeed, examining monthly fluctuations in visits to c-stores (compared to a January 2021 baseline) shows that foot traffic to the category tends to peak in summer months – perhaps driven by summer road trips and vacations – and slow down significantly in winter. Given summer’s importance for convenience stores, the category’s August YoY visit bump is a particularly promising indication of c-stores’ robust positioning this year.
While some C-store chains, like 7-Eleven, have a nationwide presence, others are concentrated in specific areas of the country. But as the popularity of C-stores continues to grow, regional chains like Wawa, Buc-ee’s, and Sheetz are expanding into new territories, broadening their reach.
Wawa, a beloved brand with roots in Pennsylvania, has become synonymous with its fresh sandwiches, coffee, and a highly loyal customer base. Wawa has been a major player in the c-store space in recent years, with a revamped menu driving ever-stronger foot traffic to its Mid-Atlantic region stores. Between January and August 2024, YoY visits to the chain were mostly elevated. And the chain is now venturing into states like Florida – where its store count has grown significantly over the past few years – as well as Georgia and Alabama.
Meanwhile, Texas favorite Buc-ee’s, though known for its enormous stores and mind boggling array of dining options, has a relatively small footprint – but that might be changing. The chain, which also outpaced its already-strong 2023 performance this year, is opening locations in Arkansas and North Carolina, further building on its reputation as a destination for travelers. And Sheetz, another regional chain with a strong presence in Pennsylvania, is also expanding, with plans to open locations in Southern states like North Carolina and Tennessee.
This trend toward regional expansion offers significant opportunities for growth, not only by increasing store count, but also by reaching new consumer bases and target audiences. Customer behavior differs between markets – and by expanding into new areas, c-stores can tap into unique local visitation patterns.
One metric that highlights local differences in consumer behavior is dwell time, or the amount of time a customer spends inside a convenience store per visit. In some regions, visitors tend to move in and out quickly, while in others, customers linger for longer periods of time.
Analyzing convenience store dwell times by state highlights substantial differences in visitor behavior. During the first eight months of 2024, coastal states (with the exception of Oregon) tended to see shorter average dwell times (between 7.5 and 11.8 minutes). On the other hand, in states like Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota, average dwell times ranged between 21.2 and 28.2 minutes.
Interestingly, the states with the longest dwell times also have some of the highest percentages of truck traffic on interstate highways – suggesting that these longer stops are perhaps made by long-haul truckers looking for a place to shower, relax, and grab a bite to eat.
Even as regional favorites expand their reach, nationwide classic 7-Eleven is taking steps to further cement its growing role as a prime grab-and-go food and beverage destination. And like other dining destinations, the chain relies on limited-time offers (LTOs) to fuel excitement – and visits.
One of the most iconic, and beloved c-store LTOs is 7-Eleven’s Slurpee Day, which falls each year on July 11th. The event, during which all 7-Eleven locations hand out free slurpees, tends to drive significant upticks in foot traffic – and this year was no exception. Visits to the convenience store jumped by a whopping 127.3% on July 11th, 2024 relative to the YTD daily visit average – proving that good deals will bring customers in the door.
The convenience store sector continues building on the impressive growth seen in 2023. As many chains double down on expanding both their regional presence and their offerings, will they continue to drive growth in the coming years?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven convenience store updates.
