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It’s hard to imagine, but we’ve eclipsed the five year anniversary of the onset of the pandemic lockdowns across the U.S., when the retail industry was transformed overnight. By April 2020, thousands of stores had closed and uncertainty loomed. At the time, it felt like the potential end of physical retail that the industry had been ruminating over for years.
Five years later, the industry looks mostly like it did at the beginning of 2020. Online shopping did not kill physical retail, and although e-commerce adoption has substantially increased since pre-pandemic – fueled by the spike in new online shoppers in 2020 – the vast majority of retail transactions (over 80%) still occur in brick-and-mortar locations.
At the same time, while the retail industry looks similar to itself structurally, there have been numerous changes at the category level. Many large ticket purchases like consumer electronics and home furnishings that experienced a pull forward in demand during the pandemic waned over the past few years. Visits to apparel retailers and department stores looked, for a while, like they would never recover. And as people emerged from their homes or found their way to TikTok, beauty became the in-demand category that spread like wildfire. Grocery shopping went from a mundane chore to a form of consumer escapism in 2020; in many ways, that behavior has stuck for shoppers as they now frequent more grocery chains in their journey.
We’ve also observed some fundamental changes across U.S. consumers; more workers still work from home than before the pandemic, although return to office numbers keep rising. And many city dwellers who migrated during the peak pandemic period still remain in more suburban and rural areas.
So what have the past five years taught us about U.S. shoppers? First, we’ve learned that consumers are much more resilient than we give them credit for as they demonstrated a remarkable ability to both adapt to unprecedented circumstances and return to their former shopping habits once the situation normalized. Second, consumers are very cyclical in their behaviors and interests – five years after the pandemic’s start, many of the categories that suffered are coming back into their own. And, as consumers face different types of economic uncertainty, we should be optimistic that they can weather different types of storms. But perhaps the key lesson from the past five years has been that brick-and-mortar stores serve a distinct purpose to both retailers and shoppers – and that physical commerce is definitively here to stay.
Looking at the Placer 100 Retail and Dining Index reveals that visits to retail and dining locations not only rebounded from the pandemic, but have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. There are a few underlying causes that could have contributed to these changes: store and unit openings, a higher frequency in visits to certain categories, and increased consumer demand.
At the same time, dwell times across the macro retail industry have shifted since the pandemic as consumers are generally spending less time in stores than they did in 2019. There could be a few reasons contributing to this decrease: a higher adoption of e-commerce as a research tool before visiting a store, a higher utilization of BOPIS and curbside offerings, or more frequent visits leading to shorter individual trips but longer overall time in store. Last year (2024) also saw a higher share of weekday visits compared to the pre-pandemic period, where more consumers shopped on the weekend.
From a consumer perspective, as we wrote about recently, higher income households are more important to the retail industry than prior to the pandemic – even though they account for fewer visits overall. Meanwhile, lower income households are visiting retailers more frequently, especially in essential categories, as they look to combat inflationary pressures that exploded since the pandemic.
What did the pandemic reveal about essential retail categories? For many consumers, these segments got them through the peak pandemic time period as discretionary retail locations remained closed. Grocery stores, pharmacies, and superstores provided a sense of normalcy for shoppers as visiting a store became much more than a weekly errand. Today’s shoppers mirror many of those behaviors; they visit these types of retailers more frequently and don’t balk at making an extra trip for that “must-have” item from a specific chain.
Looking at the relative share of visits by category shows that dollar and discount stores gained the most visit share compared to the pre-pandemic trends. These chains have invested heavily in fresh food items and assortment expansion to become more of a destination for shoppers, especially those who are more price sensitive. So while visitation growth to dollar store chains did stagnate in 2024, even as retailers continued to expand store fleets, the leading players in this category have already entrenched themselves deeper into consumers' shopping journey compared to the pre-pandemic period.
Similarly, value based grocers and warehouse clubs have become more frequent stops in consumer daily routines, even if their share of visitation hasn’t risen dramatically. These chains have benefitted from changes in consumer behavior over the past five years: Warehouse clubs were well positioned for consumers who migrated from urban to suburban environments, and value grocery stores such as Aldi and Trader Joe’s became a safe haven for consumers trying to combat inflationary pressures as the country emerged from the pandemic.
The one sector that hasn’t fared as well? The drugstore channel. The increase in visitation during the vaccine roll out period didn’t result in long term sustained traffic, and drugstores with their expansive store fleet have struggled to find their true value proposition as competition from wellness chains (such as GNC & Vitamin Shoppe), beauty retailers, and superstores grew. Drug-based retailers are still working to right size business today, as further constrained shoppers look elsewhere.
Essential retail players have had to contend with ever-evolving consumer needs in the post-pandemic period and continue to play a key role in the return for normalcy. Some sectors have fared better than others, but those that have emerged as winners looked to stay in lock step with their consumers on their journey. Retailers realized that they didn’t have to be the best at everything – experience, convenience, value, and assortment – but they needed to lean into their speciality to be successful.
On the other end of the retail spectrum, discretionary categories have faced headwinds as consumers exited the peak pandemic period. The peak pandemic years (2020 and 2021) were banner years for retail segments that cater to shoppers’ “wants”. But as the need to self-soothe with goods waned and inflationary pressures rose, consumers walked away from many of the retailers who had benefited from their behavioral changes. (The declines in foot traffic in these categories likely also reflected some of the shift to online channels, as most of these retailers were forced to shut their doors during the early days of COVID.)
It’s been a long road to recovery for discretionary businesses, but we began to see some renewed signs of life over the past year. These retailers must remain vigilant in their quest for relevance with shoppers; high levels of uncertainty, debts, and increasing focus on value all still present headwinds for the retail industry – particularly those who focus on satisfying desires instead of needs.
In reviewing the visitation growth since 2022, discretionary retail could be broken into two performance categories: beauty and everything else. As we’ve written previously, the beauty industry was able to ride the wave of post-lockdown consumer behaviors, including the need to replace outdated products that hadn’t been worn while spending more time at home. At the same time, consumers also became more enamored with mass beauty brands, or those sold at drugstores or mass merchants at lower price points. The success of these brands and retailers that harnessed the power of consumer choice, like Ulta Beauty, intersected with a strong consumer desire for value. And although 2024 was a year of reckoning for the beauty industry as the consumer shifts towards other priorities, the category’s strong success during the early post-pandemic period cannot be overstated.
The performance of other discretionary segments has been more mixed. Categories that saw meteoric growth during the pandemic lockdowns – such as home furnishings, home improvement and consumer electronics – failed to sustain momentum. Apparel trends, like the rise of athleisure, had helped drive continued demand to retail chains and department stores even without the need for traditional clothing, and as life got back to normal and these trends faded, retailers saw year-over-year declines in visitation.
But the 2024 data began the slow rebound of some of these categories, particularly in home and apparel. Home furnishings, home improvement, and consumer electronics may continue to see a rebound in 2025 as we enter a new replacement cycle and those who purchased these categories during the pandemic look to refresh their homes and upgrade their technology. Apparel’s rebound can be attributed to a resurgence of national brands as increased use of semaglutide medications and an interest in healthy living drive shoppers to revamp their wardrobes.
The one area of discretionary retail that outperformed its competitors and continues to shine? The off-price channel has had an extraordinary few years of visitation growth since the onset of the pandemic. Off-price retailers have enticed consumers with the perfect blend of value orientation, in-store experience, and immediacy that drive repeat visitation and keep shoppers engaged. The success of off-price retail also underscores the continued importance of physical retailers, despite the initial changes in behavior during the pandemic. This sector of discretionary retail is probably best positioned to handle the potential economic uncertainty of 2025 and beyond.
Overall, the discretionary side of the retail industry has begun to recover from its challenging few years of visitation, but 2025 does pose uncertainty that could impact consumers’ disposable income levels. Retailers that cater to consumers’ “wants” must work even harder to stay on their customers’ radar and entice shoppers to come into physical retail locations instead of shopping online or via social media platforms. As mentioned earlier, high income shoppers are going to become even more valuable to this sector of retail as it tries to maintain momentum.
The retail industry has undergone a tremendous transformation over the past five years. But while so much has evolved, there is still a lot of opportunity for the industry to be more agile in its ability to satisfy consumer demands. Despite the early days of store closures during the pandemic, physical retail not only bounced back, but has flourished. Retailers continue to focus on upgrading store fleets and opening new stores. Stores have moved away from being experiential to trying to just provide a good shopper experience. Retail’s reality is that consumers still face many challenges ahead, especially economic uncertainty. But, the pandemic highlighted the resilience of both retailers and shoppers to support one another, which will hopefully continue into the future of retail.
The battle for theme park dominance in Orlando is heating up this spring and summer. The highly anticipated opening of Universal Orlando Resort’s Epic Universe on May 22nd brings a third theme park gate to the resort, inching closer to the count of Walt Disney World. Universal has been slowly chipping away at Disney’s stronghold over the Orlando market with new resort hotels, water parks and now the addition of a third gate, while Disney has concentrated efforts around upgrades to existing parks and expansion of programs like the Disney Vacation Club.
The opening of Epic Universe reveals some of the tension brewing beneath the surface when it comes to changing consumer demands. Visiting the resorts in Orlando, a rite of passage for many families, has gotten much more expensive in recent years, and theme park ticket prices are similar at both destinations, although Walt Disney World does have a higher overall Median Household Income in its captured market. According to Placer.ai’s cross-visitation analysis, 40% of visitors to Universal Orlando Resort also visit Walt Disney World, signaling that Epic Universe needs to wow in order to keep visitors on property instead of resort hopping.
Placer.ai’s foot traffic estimates show that the two resorts attract slightly different demographic profiles. Walt Disney World attracts a higher distribution of Ultra Wealthy Families and Wealthy Suburban Families, while Universal Orlando Resort captures more visits from middle-income cohorts like Blue Collar Suburbs, City Hopefuls and Near-Urban Diverse Families. There’s even a difference in the young people who visit each resort: Walt Disney World captures more Young Professionals – the potential “Disney Adults” – whereas Universal sees a higher share of visits from Young Urban Singles.
With the year-over-year price increases, even a wealthier base of visitors may not help to sustain visitation with a new theme park opening and uncertain economic headwinds. Both Orlando destinations are up against a changing consumer base and theme park loyalists who expect the highest standard of excellence and innovation.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Visits to brick-and-mortar retail and dining chains fell slightly in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. The year-over-year (YoY) visit gaps widened to 0.5% for retail while dining visits dropped 1.4% below Q1 2024 levels. And while some of the dip may be due to Q1 2025 having one day less than 2024’s longer February, the decline could also signal a softening of consumer sentiment.
At the same time, the decrease in visits was extremely minor. In the retail space especially, YoY visits were technically negative, but at -0.5% this year’s Q1 visitation trends remained essentially on par with last year’s traffic numbers. The muted dip in visits during this period of economic uncertainty is likely due to the resilience of the U.S. consumer and to the range of budget-friendly retail and dining segments that provide options to even the most price conscious consumers.
Although overall dining visits declined in Q1, some budget-friendly options did experience visit growth. Visits to coffee chains were up 1.7% in Q1 2025, and fast casual and QSR concepts – that operate at a somewhat higher price point – saw a minor traffic drop of 1.4% YoY. Meanwhile, traffic to full-service restaurants declined 3.0% YoY.
These visitation patterns suggest that consumers are still willing to spend on budget-friendly treats, such as a specialty coffee or pastry, and – to a lesser extent – slightly pricier fast-food or fast-casual entrees. But many may be cutting back on meals at sit-down restaurants and redirecting their spending towards more affordable indulgences.
Although overall retail visits remained relatively close to Q1 2024 levels, traffic declined to several essential retail categories – including superstores, gas stations & convenience stores, and drugstores & pharmacies. Retailers in these categories also carry many non-essential items, so the dip in visitation may be due to reduced discretionary spending within those categories.
Meanwhile, visits to the grocery category increased 0.9% relative to last year following three straight quarters of YoY visit growth, and traffic to discount & dollar stores stabilized following several years of rapid growth. This suggests that the competitive pressure from discount & dollar stores on traditional grocery formats may be abating and highlights grocery's ability to withstand challenges in the evolving retail landscape.
Consumers’ budgetary concerns are also evident in the recent performance of the various apparel segments. Off-price continued leading the apparel pack with Q1 2025 visits up 3.2% YoY, while every other apparel segment analyzed experienced a dip in traffic. Sportswear & athleisure in particular – which saw visits surge over the pandemic – saw visits decline for the fourth quarter in a row.
The auto retail space also revealed consumers' relatively thrifty preferences over this past quarter. While visits to auto parts shops & service chains increased 2.5% YoY in Q1 2025, visits to car dealerships fell 4.1% – suggesting that consumers are bringing in their cars for repairs rather than trading them in for newer vehicles.
Q1 2025’s retail and dining visitation patterns suggest that today’s consumer continues to be highly price conscious, with the budget-friendly segment coming out ahead in almost every category analyzed. Retailers and dining concepts who can cater to consumer’s value orientation will likely come out ahead in this increasingly competitive market.
For more data-driven retail and dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Traffic to Albertsons banners has increased steadily over the past couple of years, with visits still significantly higher (10.5%) than in pre-pandemic 2019. So while visits did dip slightly relative to 2023 (-1.1%) – likely due to stabilization following the robust growth of recent years – the minimal decline highlights Albertsons’ capacity to maintain strong foot traffic despite a challenging economic environment.
Zooming into quarterly-level data also highlights Albertsons’ strength. After narrowing its year-over-year (YoY) visit gap from -2.5% in Q2 2024 to -0.9% in Q3 and Q4 2024, Q1 2025 visits are now level with Q1 2024 traffic – suggesting that Albertsons’ visits have indeed stabilized, with the company holding on the gains of the past couple of years.
The company’s resilience in the face of the growing competition from discount & dollar stores is likely contributing to Albertsons’ strength.
Inflation and high prices have had a major impact on grocery shopping behavior in recent years, with discount stores emerging as significant players in the grocery market. Indeed, between 2019 and 2024, the share of visits to the discount & dollar category out of total grocery and discount & dollar store visits increased from 23.4% to 25.5% – likely due to some shoppers favoring more affordable grocery channels over traditional supermarkets. Meanwhile, grocery’s relative visit share decreased, with traffic to the grocery category (excluding Albertsons banners) falling from 67.8% in 2019 to 66.0% in 2024. But Albertsons’ relative visit share remained largely stable during this period – suggesting that, even as budget-conscious consumers gravitate towards discount stores, Albertsons has managed to retain its customer base.
Albertsons, like other grocery stores, has seen an increase in short visits in recent years, leading to shorter average dwell time. Between 2019 and 2024, the average length of stay across Albertsons brands dropped from 22.7 minutes to 21.6 minutes.
The drop in visit duration may be partially attributed to the growing segment of consumers who prefer the convenience of picking up their groceries via lockers or curbside, or who are supplementing their online orders with quick trips in-store. And as Albertsons has invested in curbside pickup, delivery, and online shopping options across a number of its banners, the company is well positioned to meet the demand for flexibility and efficiency in the grocery space.
Diving into some of Albertsons’ biggest brands reveals that visits to most banners stayed relatively close to 2023 levels, with YoY traffic trends ranging from -2.7% to +2.9%. While banners like Albertsons, Safeway, and VONS saw slightly fewer visits in 2024 compared to 2023, Jewel-Osco and Shaw's Supermarket enjoyed YoY visit growth.
Albertsons is making the best of a challenging economic environment, keeping visits close to previous levels and maintaining its share of the grocery visit pie.
Will the grocery banner see visit growth into 2025? Visit Placer.ai for more up-to-date grocery retail insights.
While the U.S. government has currently partially paused its consideration of reciprocal tariffs on global imports, retailers are still bracing for the possibility of future enactment and potential ripple effects across the industry of the tariffs still in place. From rising supply chain costs to shifts in consumer behavior, tariffs have the potential to impact everything from product pricing to in-store foot traffic. And in an environment where consumers remain highly price-sensitive and economic uncertainty persists, understanding how tariffs could influence retail visitation is critical. While we won’t know the full impact until the tariffs are implemented and impacted retailers adjust, Placer.ai visitation data can help evaluate how the proposed tariffs may be shaping consumer patterns and what that might mean for retailers moving forward.
When new regulations like tariffs are introduced, they often create both short-term and long-term effects. In the short term, consumers remain highly price-sensitive following prolonged inflation in key areas such as food, rent, and healthcare. As a result, our visitation data suggests that some consumers acted early to avoid potential price increases tied to tariff implementation. While visit trends for the week of March 24–30, 2025 were also influenced by the timing of Easter in 2024 (which fell on March 31), Placer.ai data indicates a possible pull forward in demand during the weeks leading up to the expected implementation of the latest tariffs—particularly at “stock-up” retailers like warehouse clubs. In fact, warehouse clubs recorded their strongest year-over-year visitation week of 2025 on the week of March 24-30th, while superstores and grocery stores saw declines, likely due to comparisons to strong performance during the same Easter week in the previous year.
Looking at more discretionary retail categories, we also see evidence that consumers were trying to get ahead of tariff implementation. Our data indicates that retailers selling products sourced from countries potentially facing higher tariffs experienced stronger year-over-year visitation trends. The timing of Easter 2024 likely contributed to this boost as well—many of these retailers were closed or operating with reduced hours during that week last year. Categories such as home improvement, electronics, luxury department stores, apparel and accessories, and clothing all saw notable year-over-year visitation increases for the week of March 24–30, 2025, as shown below.
While many uncertainties remain around tariff implementation, consumers are likely to increasingly gravitate toward retailers that offer bulk purchasing, strong private label alternatives, and everyday low prices—areas where warehouse clubs and discount grocers with robust private label assortments excel. Similarly, national restaurant chains with streamlined operations, diversified global supply chains, and the ability to scale value-driven promotions will hold a competitive edge. Off-price retailers and thrift stores offering secondhand and resale items may also benefit, appealing to deal-seeking consumers. These types of retailers are often better positioned to absorb rising costs and maintain affordability, making them attractive options in an increasingly inflation-sensitive environment.
Consumer electronics, apparel, luxury goods, and beverage alcohol retailers may be disproportionately affected by potential tariffs due to their heavy reliance on imported products and limited pricing flexibility. Many electronics, luxury, and apparel items are sourced from countries subject to implemented or potential tariffs, which could significantly increase costs in categories already operating with tight margins. For beverage alcohol retailers, tariffs on imported wine, spirits, and specialty ingredients could lead to supply chain disruptions and higher prices, particularly for premium or niche products. In these segments, passing additional costs on to consumers may be challenging in an environment where shoppers remain highly price-sensitive, potentially resulting in decreased demand, inventory issues, and increased reliance on promotional strategies.
As the U.S. moves closer to implementing new tariffs, retailers across categories must prepare for both immediate and long-term impacts. From early signs of stock-up behavior at warehouse clubs to shifting visitation patterns in discretionary categories like apparel and electronics, consumer response is already taking shape. While value-focused retailers and those with operational agility may be better positioned to weather the storm, others – particularly those reliant on imported goods – could face heightened challenges. In this evolving landscape, visitation data can help to assess consumer behavior in real time, helping retailers adapt strategies and remain competitive as the full effects of tariff policies unfold.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
A Minecraft Movie shattered box office predictions with a $162.75 million opening, as eager fans – some tossing popcorn or yelling “chicken jockey” – flocked to theaters nationwide.
On the weekend of A Minecraft Movie’s release (Friday, April 4th to Sunday, April 6th), leading cinema chains AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark enjoyed a 92.6% visit boost compared to an average weekend during the past 12 months. Only Moana 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine drew bigger crowds.
And examining daily cinema visit fluctuations this year shows that visits to cinemas peaked on Saturday, April 5th, when foot traffic surged 336.7% above the year-to-date daily average.
Already dubbed “the gamer version” of 1960’s cult film The Rocky Horror Picture Show, A Minecraft Movie has become Warner Bros.’ third-biggest opening of all time. But how long will the film keep drawing crowds?
Follow Placer.ai to find out.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
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Convenience stores, or c-stores, have been one of the more exciting retail categories to watch over the past few years. The segment has undergone significant shifts, embracing more diverse offerings like fresh food and expanded dining options, while also exploring new markets and adapting to changing consumer needs. We looked at the recent foot traffic data to see what this category's successes reveal about the current state of brick-and-mortar retail.
Convenience stores are increasingly viewed not only as places to fuel up, but as affordable destinations for quick meals, snacks, and other necessities. And analyzing monthly visits to the category shows that it is continuing to benefit from its positioning as a stop for food, fuel, and in some cases, tourism.
Despite lapping a strong H1 2023, visits to the category either exceeded last year’s levels or held steady during all but one of the first eight months of 2024 – highlighting the segment’s ongoing strength. Only in January 2024 did C-stores see a slight YoY dip, likely reflecting a weather-induced exaggeration of the segment’s normal seasonality.
Indeed, examining monthly fluctuations in visits to c-stores (compared to a January 2021 baseline) shows that foot traffic to the category tends to peak in summer months – perhaps driven by summer road trips and vacations – and slow down significantly in winter. Given summer’s importance for convenience stores, the category’s August YoY visit bump is a particularly promising indication of c-stores’ robust positioning this year.
While some C-store chains, like 7-Eleven, have a nationwide presence, others are concentrated in specific areas of the country. But as the popularity of C-stores continues to grow, regional chains like Wawa, Buc-ee’s, and Sheetz are expanding into new territories, broadening their reach.
Wawa, a beloved brand with roots in Pennsylvania, has become synonymous with its fresh sandwiches, coffee, and a highly loyal customer base. Wawa has been a major player in the c-store space in recent years, with a revamped menu driving ever-stronger foot traffic to its Mid-Atlantic region stores. Between January and August 2024, YoY visits to the chain were mostly elevated. And the chain is now venturing into states like Florida – where its store count has grown significantly over the past few years – as well as Georgia and Alabama.
Meanwhile, Texas favorite Buc-ee’s, though known for its enormous stores and mind boggling array of dining options, has a relatively small footprint – but that might be changing. The chain, which also outpaced its already-strong 2023 performance this year, is opening locations in Arkansas and North Carolina, further building on its reputation as a destination for travelers. And Sheetz, another regional chain with a strong presence in Pennsylvania, is also expanding, with plans to open locations in Southern states like North Carolina and Tennessee.
This trend toward regional expansion offers significant opportunities for growth, not only by increasing store count, but also by reaching new consumer bases and target audiences. Customer behavior differs between markets – and by expanding into new areas, c-stores can tap into unique local visitation patterns.
One metric that highlights local differences in consumer behavior is dwell time, or the amount of time a customer spends inside a convenience store per visit. In some regions, visitors tend to move in and out quickly, while in others, customers linger for longer periods of time.
Analyzing convenience store dwell times by state highlights substantial differences in visitor behavior. During the first eight months of 2024, coastal states (with the exception of Oregon) tended to see shorter average dwell times (between 7.5 and 11.8 minutes). On the other hand, in states like Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota, average dwell times ranged between 21.2 and 28.2 minutes.
Interestingly, the states with the longest dwell times also have some of the highest percentages of truck traffic on interstate highways – suggesting that these longer stops are perhaps made by long-haul truckers looking for a place to shower, relax, and grab a bite to eat.
Even as regional favorites expand their reach, nationwide classic 7-Eleven is taking steps to further cement its growing role as a prime grab-and-go food and beverage destination. And like other dining destinations, the chain relies on limited-time offers (LTOs) to fuel excitement – and visits.
One of the most iconic, and beloved c-store LTOs is 7-Eleven’s Slurpee Day, which falls each year on July 11th. The event, during which all 7-Eleven locations hand out free slurpees, tends to drive significant upticks in foot traffic – and this year was no exception. Visits to the convenience store jumped by a whopping 127.3% on July 11th, 2024 relative to the YTD daily visit average – proving that good deals will bring customers in the door.
The convenience store sector continues building on the impressive growth seen in 2023. As many chains double down on expanding both their regional presence and their offerings, will they continue to drive growth in the coming years?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven convenience store updates.
