.svg)
Pacsun has seen its fair share of challenges in its more than forty years of business. Now, the brand is entering a new phase of growth, with a major brick-and-mortar expansion alongside concrete steps to engage Gen Z consumers. We dove into the data for several Pacsun locations outperforming their host malls to understand what a growing footprint could mean for shopping centers and how the brand is connecting with young consumers online and off.
Pacsun has faced its share of challenges over the years. More recently, however, the legacy brand and mall staple appears to be in the midst of a renaissance – with plans to further expand its domestic brick-and-mortar footprint in 2026.
Foot traffic data for several Pacsun locations that experienced notable foot traffic growth in 2025 suggests that the brand’s stores have the potential to help drive traffic to the shopping centers that host them. At The Promenade Shops at Centerra in Colorado, visits to Pacsun rose 35.7% YoY in 2025, significantly outpacing the -5.5% visit gap of the mall as a whole.
Psychographic segmentation suggests that beyond driving visits, these locations also help attract key young demographics to the mall.
At Winter Garden Village, for example, the Gen Z-aligned "Young Professionals" segment accounted for 19.4% of the Pacsun store’s captured market, compared to the mall’s 16.2% share of the segment.
These locations may be an example of how Pacsun’s physical retail presence works together with its social-sales strategy to engage with a younger generation; driving traffic, in part, by serving as spaces to experience products seen on trusted social channels or at creator-led events.
And Pacsun appears firmly committed to its younger audience as part of its wider strategy. Although the brand looks to move upmarket, the latest example of which being the launch of a premium eyewear collection, by maintaining what it views as an accessible price point, Pacsun remains focused on consumers yet to reach their peak earning years.
Pacsun’s ability to drive traffic from this key demographic makes it an attractive potential tenant for malls looking to build long-term loyalty among younger audiences with earning potential.
The Pacsun model demonstrates that physical retail remains a critical touchpoint for brands investing in digital engagement and younger audiences. With plans to open dozens of new locations over the next few years, Pacsun emerges as a compelling tenant for shopping centers seeking cultural relevance and the next generation of consumers.
For more retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The grocery category saw notable shifts in consumer behavior in 2025 as inflation and tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on household budgets. Analyzing consumer traffic trends for several grocery formats – including wholesale clubs, which serve as primary grocery destinations for many families – reveals how evolving consumer preferences shaped grocery performance in 2025 and highlights key lessons for grocers and CPG companies heading into 2026.
Like many retail categories in 2025, grocery was shaped by continued economic uncertainty and value-seeking behavior. But AI-powered location analytics shows that consumers also prioritized quality when forming a value perception in the grocery space.
The graph below shows that grocery visits increased across formats, likely reflecting consumers’ shift toward more meals at home as a way to save money in a persistently inflationary environment.
Fresh format grocers posted the strongest year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, perhaps due to their selection of prepared foods and salad bars as an alternative to eating out, as well as their emphasis on health and wellness – an emerging priority among grocery shoppers. Meanwhile, value grocers and wholesale clubs, known for their ability to deliver savings, consistently outperformed traditional grocers in YoY visit growth.
These patterns indicate that consumers are increasingly weighing up quality and price in the grocery aisle, a trend that is driving the expansion of private-label offerings.
As consumers substituted restaurant meals with more cost-conscious options, grocery stores also emerged as increasingly important destinations for quick, convenient lunches.
Analyzing relative visit share between the grocery category and quick-service restaurants (QSRs) shows that between 2024 and 2025, grocery stores claimed an increasingly large share of short midday visits – i.e. visits lasting less than ten minutes between 11:00 AM and 3:00 PM.
And while some of QSR’s relative decline in short lunchtime visits could be due to discontent with rising fast-food prices among highly value-conscious consumers, it also suggests that a growing share of consumers see grocery stores – where they can pick up ready-to-eat items – as convenient options during the lunch rush. Traditional grocers saw the largest increase in short midday visits (from 15.9% to 16.6%) while value and fresh format grocers saw more modest increases. Notably, the share of short midday visits to wholesale clubs was unchanged between 2024 and 2025 (2.1%), perhaps since these chains don’t offer the same pre-prepared and small-package options like other grocery formats.
These metrics underscore the strong demand for on-the-go meal options and single-serving, shelf-stable products that both grocery stores and CPG companies can provide.
Beyond the lunchtime rush, celebration-driven demand continued to play a central role in grocery traffic this year. Like in past years, Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – was by far the busiest grocery shopping day of the year, with category visits up 80.5% compared to the 2025 daily average. Several of the year’s other busiest grocery days similarly fell immediately ahead of major holidays, including New Year’s Eve, Easter, Mother’s Day, and the 4th of July, as consumers stocked up ahead of gatherings with family and friends.
Leading up to Christmas, grocery shopping appeared to be spread across several high-traffic days rather than concentrated on a single peak; Christmas Eve and December 23rd had nearly identical foot traffic boosts of 57.9% and 58.0%, respectively. And even December 22nd – three days before Christmas – stood out as one of the year’s busiest grocery shopping days, with visits running 28.9% above average for 2025.
Some consumers may have made multiple “re-stocking” grocery trips in the days leading up to Christmas – potentially driven by the presence of out-of-town guests requiring ongoing food replenishment – or visited multiple stores to secure specific ingredients for holiday meals.
Grocers could leverage this trend by stocking a wide range of holiday-specific ingredients and rotating promotions that encourage repeat visits ahead of Thanksgiving and Christmas.
The grocery landscape in 2025 was also shaped by distinct shopping preferences across demographic groups.
AI-powered captured market data combined with the STI: PopStats dataset shows that singles – defined as non-family and one-person households – heavily favored fresh-format grocers, while households with children were most likely to visit wholesale clubs and value grocers.
Grocers and CPGs can unlock growth by tailoring assortments and promotional strategies to their target audience – emphasizing bulk value and price-driven messaging for family shoppers, while leaning into curated selection, prepared foods, and convenience to engage singles.
Several consumer trends shaped the grocery space in 2025 – including holiday visit surges, the prioritization of value, and convenient on-the-go meals.
How will these trends shape the grocery space in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Even as return-to-office (RTO) mandates continue to accumulate, December operates on a different rhythm – shaped as much by holiday flexibility and inclement weather as by formal policy. We dove into the data to see how office attendance reflected these dynamics this year.
In December 2025, visits to office buildings nationwide were 33.1% below 2019 levels – 36.2% below when accounting for working days – the widest year-over-six-year (Yo6Y) gap seen in recent months on a per-working-day basis.
But the softness appears to reflect shifting work patterns rather than a stalled recovery. Despite slowing from recent months, December 2025 was still the busiest in-office December since COVID, suggesting that the slowdown was driven by seasonal rhythms rather than any substantive pullback in office attendance.
December has long followed a different in-office rhythm than the rest of the year – and despite return-to-office mandates, many companies likely relax on-site expectations during the holidays, allowing employees to work remotely while traveling or spending time with family. Much like the TGIF workweek, which sees a consistent drop-off in office activity on Fridays despite RTO pushes, the December dip may simply reflect the solidification of a new post-COVID seasonal norm.
Local factors also appear to have impacted December office attendance. Miami saw a visit gap of just 10.9% versus 2019, followed by Dallas at 18.8%. As warm-weather cities that also see the highest Friday office attendance among the analyzed markets, both may be less susceptible to holiday-adjacent work-from-home behavior.
New York City, by contrast, recorded a 19.6% visit gap, likely weighed down by harsher winter weather and an early, severe flu season. And Chicago trailed the pack with a 47.6% visit gap, pointing to a sharper seasonal pullback that may have been amplified by winter conditions, elevated flu activity, and workers opting to travel to warmer destinations during the holidays.
The year-over-year (YoY) analysis further reinforces that December’s softness is seasonal rather than a reflection of a true RTO slowdown. Even after adjusting for the number of working days, nationwide office visits rose 4.9% YoY, and every tracked market posted gains.
That said, growth remained uneven across major cities. San Francisco posted the strongest YoY gains, even as it continued to trail most other analyzed markets in overall office recovery – reflecting an ongoing vibe shift in a city once defined by post-pandemic pessimism. And with the city’s AI-driven leasing boom showing no signs of slowing, that momentum appears likely to carry into 2026.
Elsewhere, YoY gains were smaller than in San Francisco but still meaningful, pointing to steady progress across markets even as recovery paths vary by city.
The data suggests that December’s softening reflects predictable holiday-season flexibility rather than weakening momentum. And with several high-profile return-to-office mandates set to take effect in early 2026 – and other employers continuing to nudge attendance higher through quieter forms of “hybrid creep”– the broader office recovery appears poised to reassert itself in the new year.
For more data-driven office insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Back in April 2025, I channeled my inner Peter King and made nine predictions about retail's biggest players in my article "All The Things I Think I Think About Retail Over The Last Quarter."
Now, with eight months of hindsight and fresh data in my rearview, it's time for a reckoning. It is time to examine what I got right, what I got wrong, and, most importantly, what I learned from the overall exercise.
Or, put simply, I guess you could say that what lies in front of you, dear reader, is my assessment of how well I think I thought.
Grade: F (Spectacularly Wrong)
What I predicted: "Buchanan did a wonderful job instilling an omnichannel foundation at Michaels... Buchanan is the right man for the job at Kohl's. But I do not envy Buchanan. Not. One. Bit."
What actually happened: Well, I was right that I should not have envied him. Ashley Buchanan was fired for cause after just over 100 days in May 2025 following an investigation that revealed he violated company policies by directing Kohl's to engage in vendor transactions involving undisclosed conflicts of interest. Specifically, he had a romantic relationship with a vendor (Incredibrew CEO Chandra Holt) that he failed to disclose while pushing through deals with what has been reported as "highly unusual terms favorable to the vendor."
The twist: This wasn't about performance. It was about ethics. Kohl's board found Buchanan guilty of serious misconduct, and he was forced to forfeit $15 million in stock awards and repay $2.5 million of his signing bonus. The company is now on its fourth CEO in four years, with Michael Bender (a retail veteran from Walmart and PepsiCo) taking the helm in late 2025.
The reality: Buchanan's tenure at Kohl's will go down as one of the shortest and most ignominious CEO stints in retail history. I predicted he'd have his work cut out for him, but I didn't predict he'd be fired before he could even start the real work it would take to turn Kohl’s around.
The Lesson: Sometimes the biggest risk isn't the turnaround. It's the person at the helm. And, fortunately for Kohl’s, the Street appears to be responding to Mr. Bender, as the stock price has appreciated by a factor of four since he took over for Buchanan in April.
Grade: A+ (Nailed It)
What I predicted: "Costco held to a position that many others, including Walmart, Target, and Tractor Supply Company, have not... for all intents and purposes, at least initially, Costco appears to be holding strong to its principles and doing just fine."
What actually happened: I was spot on. Costco's Q3 2025 results immediately following the decision by shareholders to vote down a measure to assess DEI risks showed 8% revenue growth, U.S. comparable sales up 7.9% (excluding gas deflation), and net income up 13.2% year-over-year.
Even more telling: While Target hemorrhaged traffic following its DEI rollback, Costco gained during the same period, and took many shoppers from Target I might add.
Flash forward to year-end performance: Costco's fiscal year-end results, for its fiscal year that ended on August 31, 2025, demonstrated sustained strength. Net sales for Q4 increased 8.0% to $84.4 billion, while full-year sales reached $269.9 billion, up 8.1%. Comparable sales for the full year grew 5.9% (7.6% adjusted for gas and foreign exchange), with e-commerce sales exceeding $19.6 billion for the year, up 15%. Membership fee income, Costco's profit engine, also reached $5.32 billion, up 10.4% over the previous year.
Most recent results (Q1 Fiscal 2026): The momentum continued into the new fiscal year. For the quarter ended November 23, 2025, Costco reported net sales of $66.0 billion, up 8.2% year-over-year, with EPS of $4.50 beating analyst expectations of $4.27. Comparable sales rose 6.4%, while digitally-enabled sales surged an impressive 20.5%. Digital traffic jumped 24% and app traffic exploded 48% year-over-year.
But what about the stock?: While Costco's business has been phenomenal, Costco’s stock price tells a more nuanced story. After spectacular gains of 49% in 2023 and 39.6% in 2024, shares hit an all-time high of $1,078 in February 2025. However, at the time this article was written, the stock has since pulled back approximately 20% from that peak, ending 2025 down roughly 6% year-to-date and about 12% over the trailing twelve months, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 17% gain over the same period.
Zoom out: Over the past two years, Costco’s stock price is still far beyond where it was at the close of 2023, when it sat right around $700 per share. The stock currently trades around $850-860 per share at a forward P/E of approximately 46x, which analysts cite as the primary reason for the recent underperformance as opposed to any fundamental business weakness (Target, for comparison, trades at a P/E of 11-12x).
The Lesson: Principles and profits aren't mutually exclusive when backed by operational excellence. Costco proved that standing firm on values, combined with relentless execution, membership growth, digital transformation, and an unwavering focus on member value can strengthen your brand and drive superior business results. Short-term stock volatility driven by valuation concerns shouldn’t diminish the fundamental vindication of the strategy.
Grade: A (Nearly Perfect)
What I predicted: "Sprouts has done a masterful job rightsizing its store prototype... The one driving an 11.5% comp in Sprouts' most recent quarter? It still has a lot more room to grow."
What actually happened: Sprouts absolutely crushed it. In Q2 2025, Sprouts delivered a 17% net sales increase and 10.2% comparable sales growth, and followed that up in Q3 with another 5.9% comp on top of a big 2024 Q3 comp of 8.4% The company also plans to open 37 new stores in 2025 and saw e-commerce sales jump 21% in the most recent quarter.
Even more impressive: EBIT margins expanded from 6.7% to 8.1% in Q2 and also performed nicely in Q3 at 7.2%, demonstrating that Sprouts is achieving both top line and profitable growth. CEO Jack Sinclair's strategy of right-sizing stores, improving differentiation, and launching a loyalty program (rolled out in Q3) is firing on all cylinders.
The only minor caveat: Growth moderated slightly in Q3 (comp sales of 5.9%) and Q4 guidance calls for just 0-2% comp growth, suggesting some normalization. But with 464 stores across 24 states and record numbers at its back, Sprouts is still positioned for continued expansion.
The Lesson: When a retailer gets the fundamentals right, i.e. store format, location strategy, and customer experience, that’s when lightning gets caught in a bottle.
Grade: B+ (Appropriately Skeptical)
What I predicted: "One should take the results of tests like these (Macy’s First 50 store strategy) with a fine grain of salt... As the focus wears off, tests like these usually revert back to the mean. And, the mean... won't keep the Macy's Day parade balloons afloat."
What actually happened: Macy’s ended 2025 on a high note. Not necessarily a Celine Dion-like high note but a high note nonetheless. In its most recent quarter (Macy’s Q3), Macy’s Inc. posted its strongest performance in the last three years, with comps increasing 3.2% and also putting its two-year stack at a respectable 2.0%.
The First 50 stores, aka the Macy’s stores alluded to above that have received extra special attention from Macy’s, have consistently outperformed the rest of the Macy's chain throughout 2025, posting relative comparable sales gains while the overall chain has lagged behind. So much so that, by the end of Q3, Macy's had expanded the program to 125 stores (now called the "First 125").
But here's where my skepticism may still be justified: The overall Macy's namesake banner is still bleeding. Net sales for the namesake brand fell 2.3% in Q3, while comps for stores slated to remain open rose 2.3% and those at revamped stores (aka the “First 125”) rose 2.7%. Comparable sales for fiscal 2025 at Macy’s are now expected to be flat to up to 1%, compared to the previous flat to down 1.5% outlook from the previous quarter.
CEO Tony Spring, to his immense credit, is right that the investments are showing results. The stores with enhanced staffing, better merchandising, and improved visuals are indeed performing. However, I was also right that 50 (now 125) is a long way from 350, and the "mean" performance of the rest of the chain is still dragging the Macy’s namesake brand down. The First 50/125 strategy may indeed be working, at least for now, but anniversarying growth year-over-year is no easy feat.
The Lesson: The jury is still out on whether tactical improvements can overcome larger strategic challenges. Macy's First 50 could end up being the equivalent of putting premium gas in a car that needs a new engine. Right now, I am only willing to go so far as to say that the new paint job, however, is making a difference.
Grade: A- (Strong Directional Call)
What I predicted: "Bloomingdale's, unlike Macy's, could be onto something with its small format strategy... The majority of the country has no idea what a Bloomingdale's experience is like."
What actually happened: Bloomingdale's absolutely shined in 2025. Q4 comparable sales jumped 9% year-over-year on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis, making it the strongest performer in the Macy's Inc. portfolio. The smaller-format Bloomie's stores continued to show promising traffic patterns, with year-over-year visit growth outpacing the general department store industry by a wide margin.
CEO Tony Spring has resisted calls to spin off Bloomingdale's, citing synergies, but the performance gap between Bloomie's and Macy's continues to widen, validating my assessment that "Bloomie's is a different story," both as an overall concept and as a smaller store idea.
The Lesson: Scarcity creates value. When you only have 33 full-line stores, a smaller format can be a growth vehicle rather than a cannibalizer, so I expect to see more of the small format Bloomie’s stores in 2026 and 2027.
Grade: A+ (Depressingly Accurate)
What I predicted: "Target's former beachheads are now all under siege... Something is causing the temperature of Target's porridge to feel just not quite right... Its new $15 billion growth plan is potentially a step in the right direction. However, I worry that, when one looks under the covers of that plan, all he or she will find is the same owned brand gobbledygook."
What actually happened: Target imploded. According to CNBC, the retailer posted negative comp store sales declines in every quarter of 2025, with Q2 comp sales down 1.9% and then down another 2.7% in Q3. Brian Cornell announced he's stepping down as CEO in February 2026 after 11 years, to be replaced by COO Michael Fiddelke, an insider who helped develop the current struggling strategy.
The stock has been decimated: down 49% over five years (while Walmart is up 118% and Costco up 135%), and down 30% in the past year alone. Analysts now rate Cornell as one of the worst CEOs in America, with 28 of 38 analysts rating Target as Sell or Hold.
My concerns about the $15 billion growth plan were prescient. It's heavily dependent on the same owned-brand strategy that's been failing, and the recent DEI rollback in January 2025 resulted in a boycott that, as we discussed above, cost Target shoppers this year.
Activist investors are now calling for an independent board chair, and the succession to Fiddelke has been widely criticized as more "entrenched groupthink" from a company that's lost touch with consumers.
The Lesson: Don’t believe the hype. When you're the goldilocks story whose success rested upon competitors going bankrupt and being one of the few available one-stop-shop options during the pandemic, eventually borrowed time runs out.
Grade: A (Excellent Timing)
What I predicted: "Wayfair's CEO Niraj Shah is as shrewd as they come, and he may just be betting on stores right as a big tailwind is ready to hit his back."
What actually happened: Wayfair announced not one, not two, but FOUR new large-format stores since my article. Atlanta (early 2026), Yonkers (2027), Denver (late 2026), and Columbus (late 2026, testing a smaller 70,000 sq ft format). The inaugural Wilmette, Illinois store, also appears to be what I would call a success. According to Wayfair:
Even more validating: The home furnishings industry is due for a rebound (at some point), and Wayfair's physical retail push could be timed exactly as that rebound crests.
The Lesson: Sometimes the best time to invest is when everyone else is pulling back, which is why Niraj Shah's timing and execution, I predict, will one day be viewed as a stroke of genius in the annals of retail history.
Grade: C (Directionally Correct, But Still Needs Improvement)
What I predicted: "Given that Niccol (Starbucks’ CEO) has only been in his role since September, these results at least have the aroma of an early turnaround."
What actually happened: This one's complicated. Starbucks' turnaround under Brian Niccol has shown signs of life but it's been slower and messier than hoped. For most of fiscal 2025, same-store sales continued to decline (down 1% in Q2 and down 2% in Q3). However, Q4 2025 finally delivered positive global comparable sales growth for the first time in seven quarters.
The bright spots: North America comps improved to flat in Q4, and U.S. comp sales turned positive in September and stayed positive through October. Its "Green Apron Service" initiative, Starbucks says, is showing early promise, with pilot locations seeing transaction growth and service time improvements and its August rollout also being correlated to the recent improvement in results.
The challenges: The turnaround required significant corporate restructuring, store closures, labor strikes, and China being moved to a joint venture. Revenue was up modestly, but adjusted EPS fell significantly for most of the year.
My prediction about Niccol "righting the ship" was directionally correct. By late 2025, momentum has been building. But it's been a longer, harder journey than the "early aroma" suggested. While some critics have also labeled him among 2025's "worst CEOs" for the ongoing struggles, that moniker, in my opinion, is incredibly harsh and unfounded so early in his tenure, and especially when Buchanan and Cornell have about a 50 furlong lead as we round the turn on 2025.
The Lesson: Turnarounds in retail are hard, even with proven talent. Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" strategy may in fact be working. It may just take longer than investors had hoped.
Grade: A+ (Absolute Bullseye)
What I predicted: "For the past six years, Sam's Club has sat atop my list as the most innovative retailer in America not named Amazon... The combination of a digital-first shopping experience and a growing percentage of younger people shopping in its stores means that Sam's Club is positioned to create the most one-to-one personalized shopping experience out there."
What actually happened: Sam's Club absolutely dominated in 2025. Q4 comparable sales (excluding fuel) were up 6.8%, e-commerce sales grew 24%, and membership income achieved five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth (up 12.5% in Q4). The numbers I cited, specifically in my April article, 1 in 3 shoppers using Scan & Go, 63% growth in Gen Z membership over two years, and 14% growth in millennial membership, appear to be fueling the fire.
For example, Sam’s Club announced ambitious plans in April to double memberships and more than double sales and profit over the next 8-10 years. Its Member's Mark private label brand represents 50% of its merchandise sales growth over the last two years. Its digital penetration is at a record high, with e-commerce now accounting for an astounding 18% of sales and expected to reach 40% in the next few years, a Sam’s Club goal that 1) if true and 2) if accomplished, will leave many retailers eating Sam’s dust.
Oh, and one more thing, Sam's Club also surpassed Costco in the American Customer Satisfaction Index because of its technology innovations like Scan & Go and its AI powered exit archways. And its new Grapevine, Texas store will serve as a laboratory to push the boundaries of this tech even further.
Everything I said about Sam's Club being "the retailer more people should be talking about" was vindicated. They're crushing it across every metric. You name it. Sales, innovation, membership growth, younger demographics, retail media potential. Sam’s has simply been hitting it out of the park.
The Lesson: Innovation doesn’t happen overnight. It comes from a hell or high water commitment to R&D year-over-year, something for which many retailers don’t have the stomach.
| Prediction | Grade | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Kohl's / Buchanan | F | Fired for ethics violations in 100 days |
| Costco DEI Stance | A+ | Revenue up 8%, vindicated completely |
| Sprouts Growth | A | 17% sales growth, margin expansion |
| Macy's First 50 | B+ | Working but not enough to save chain |
| Bloomingdale's Small Format | A- | 9% comp growth, clear differentiation |
| Target Struggles | A+ | Stock down 49%, CEO stepping down |
| Wayfair Physical Retail | A | 4 new stores announced, Illinois success |
| Starbucks Turnaround | C | Turning positive but slower than hoped |
| Sam's Club Innovation | A+ | 6.8% comps, crushing all metrics |
Overall GPA: 3.22 / 4.0 (B+)
Looking across these nine predictions, several themes emerge:
1. Innovation Without Execution Is Worthless – Target had digital tools, owned brands, and a PR-loving CEO. But without operational excellence and strategic clarity, none of it mattered. Meanwhile, Sam's Club, Costco and Sprouts all executed relentlessly on clear strategies.
2. Values Can Be a Competitive Advantage – Costco proved that standing firm on DEI didn't hurt business. It helped. While competitors retreated, Costco gained traffic, membership loyalty, and shareholder confidence.
3. Physical Retail Isn't Dead. It's Just Evolving – Wayfair, Sam's Club, and even Bloomingdale's showed that physical stores still matter, and especially when they're reimagined around experience, convenience, and brand differentiation.
4. Turnarounds Take Time – Starbucks and Macy's both demonstrated that fixing broken operations is harder and slower than expected. Even great CEOs need patience and resources.
5. The Gap Between Winners and Losers Is Widening – There's less middle ground than ever. You're either innovating and winning, or you're falling behind.
So, what do I think of what I thought?
I think I’ll take it. In this topsy turvy year of retailing, I will take a B+. The Stanford-educated Phi Beta Kappa in me is admittedly kind of pissed about the grade, but given that my average was taken down by a tawdry love drama not seen since a Friday evening with the Lifetime channel, I can still rest easy going into 2026.
More importantly, these predictions remind me why I love this industry. Retail is theater. It's strategy. It's execution. It's about understanding people, both customers and, let’s not forget, leaders and corporate cultures, too. Sometimes you get surprised (for example, who knew coffee would impact two of my predictions this year!), but more often than not, the fundamentals win out.
The retailers that focused on customer experience, operational excellence, and genuine innovation, e.g. Costco, Sprouts, Sam's Club, Wayfair, are continuing to thrive. The ones that lost their way strategically or culturally (yes, I’m looking squarely at you, Target), along with the ones in transition, like Starbucks, are showing that turnarounds are possible but that the road will also be long and difficult.
As we head into 2026, I'm watching to see if these trends accelerate. Will Target's new CEO make meaningful changes, or will it be more of the same? Can Macy's First 125 strategy actually scale? Will Wayfair's physical store expansion continue to exceed expectations? And more pressing: Which retailers will inspire my predictions for 2026?
Stay tuned. Because I don’t just think I think we're in for another interesting year. I know I know we are.
Limited-service restaurants faced a challenging landscape in 2025, with many price-sensitive consumers pulling back on dining out in favor of grocery prepared meals and brown-bag lunches. Traffic was harder to come by, and everyday demand softened across much of the category.
Even so, chains found creative ways to stand out. We dug into the data behind the busiest weeks of the year for quick-service and fast-casual restaurants to understand what actually moved traffic – and which strategies are most likely to help brands compete in what’s shaping up to be another value-conscious year.
Everyday value became table stakes across limited service in 2025, with $5 meals, bundles, and loyalty pricing no longer serving as clear differentiators. Yet unsurprisingly, freebies and truly memorable discounts still drew crowds.
The chains featured in the chart below all saw their highest weekly traffic peaks during promotions that felt distinctive, easy to understand, and clearly worth acting on. Some – like Dairy Queen’s Free Cone Day and Dave’s Hot Chicken’s Free Slider Day – involved no-purchase-necessary giveaways. Others relied on steep, attention-grabbing discounts, such as Whataburger’s Anniversary 75-cent burger and Pizza Hut’s $2 Tuesday promo, or culturally timed activations like Chipotle’s Stanley Cup–inspired hockey jersey BOGO.
For 2026, the takeaway is clear: Discounting still works, but the offers likely to truly motivate consumers are the ones that stand out from the everyday value they already expect.
Fortunately for restaurants, however, deep discounts and giveaways aren’t the only way to draw crowds - if they were, the economics wouldn’t be sustainable for long. In 2025, culture-driven moments came surprisingly close to matching the power of freebies, without the same margin trade-offs.
Take Krispy Kreme, for example. The chain’s annual National Donut Day promotion – including a no-purchase-necessary free donut and a $2 dozen with the purchase of 12 more – produced the chain’s largest single-day visit spike of the year (+219.7% versus an average day on June 6th, 2025) and helped push weekly visits to a yearly high.
But Krispy Kreme’s Back to Hogwarts collection which launched on August 18, 2025, generated a more sustained lift that nearly matched National Donut Day’s impact at the weekly level. While the campaign did include a free donut giveaway on Saturday, August 23rd for fans representing their favorite house, the data shows the surge wasn’t driven by the freebie alone: Traffic jumped 40.7% above an average Monday on launch day, compared with a 30.9% lift over an average Saturday on the day of the giveaway.
At McDonald’s and Burger King, too, pop-culture tie-ins dominated the promotional calendar. For both chains, the week of December 1st emerged as the busiest week of 2025, and also delivered the largest YoY weekly visit increase.
At Burger King, the lift came from the chain’s SpongeBob Movie Menu – starring the Krabby Whopper – launched on December 1st ahead of the film’s December 19th release. The promotion drove an 18.4% YoY traffic increase, with traffic – largely flat or down since September – remaining elevated in the weeks that followed.
At McDonald’s, momentum was fueled by a holiday-themed Grinched Menu, which arrived on the heels of the fast food leader’s highly successful Boo Bucket merchandise drop in October. The Boo Buckets drove McDonald’s second- and third-largest year-over-year visit spikes during the weeks of October 20 and 27, and the Grinch Meal built on that lift, pushing visits higher yet during the week of December 1st and sustaining momentum through the rest of the month.
The lesson here is twofold: Well-timed promotions tied to widely recognized cultural moments can still drive outsized traffic on their own, as Krispy Kreme and Burger King’s activations showed. But McDonald’s performance also underscores the value of sequencing – using one successful launch to carry momentum into the next.
Speaking of timing and sequencing, Starbucks’ viral Bearista offering, launched strategically just before the Brand’s iconic Red Cup Day, shows how well-timed promotions can compound impact.
Red Cup Day during the week of November 10th was Starbucks’ busiest day of 2025. But the week of Bearista (November 3rd) came awfully close – and delivered the brand’s largest YoY weekly visit increase of 2025. Just as importantly, the Bearista launch helped build visit momentum, setting the stage for what ultimately became Starbucks’ biggest Red Cup Day ever.
Consumers lining up to pay $30 for the Bearista also challenged another long-held assumption about QSR traffic in 2025: that offerings have to be cheap to deliver results. What makes this especially notable is that Bearista wasn’t tied to a movie release or external cultural IP. It was brand-first, premium-priced merchandise that still drove traffic at scale. And while not easily replicated, Starbucks’ Bearista success shows that scarcity, storytelling, and timing can unlock value beyond low-price promotions.
If you’ve gotten this far, you might be wondering: What about food? Don’t people still go to restaurants to eat – and aren’t craveable menu items supposed to drive traffic?
The answer is yes. Amid all the noise around discounts, collaborations, and merchandise, food still mattered in 2025. At Popeyes, the June 2nd launch of Chicken Wraps, priced accessibly at $3.99, drove the chain’s busiest week of the year. While wraps weren’t totally new to Popeyes’ menu, this rollout was framed as a value-forward, easy-to-understand innovation at a moment when affordability mattered – and consumers responded.
At Taco Bell and KFC, food-driven traffic spikes leaned more heavily on nostalgia. Taco Bell’s limited-time revival of Cheesy Street Chalupas and Quesaritos lifted visits roughly 8% above average, while KFC saw an even larger jump (11.4%) with the return of Potato Wedges and Hot & Spicy Wings. These weren’t experimental launches, but deliberate re-releases of proven favorites, giving diners something familiar and a reason to act quickly.
Together, these examples show that even in a crowded promotional landscape, menu remains a core traffic lever – and that clearly positioned items can rise above the noise without flashy add-ons.
The busiest weeks of 2025 show that even in a tough, value-conscious environment, limited-service restaurants still have multiple, proven ways to drive traffic. From clear deep discounts that rise above the noise to culture-led moments, narrative-driven merchandise, and well-timed menu strategies also delivered some of the year’s strongest results.
As QSRs and fast-casual chains look ahead to 2026, the data suggests that winning won’t hinge on any single tactic, but on choosing the right lever for the right moment, and executing it clearly enough to cut through a crowded landscape.
For more data-driven dining insights, follow Placer.a/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
.avif)
Indoor malls outperformed both open-air centers and outlet malls on a full-year basis as the only format to post visit gains during all four quarters – signaling a shift from recovery into growth.
Open-air shopping centers came in second – and though the format trailed indoor malls on a full-year basis, open-air shopping centers came out on top over the holidays, with Q4 visits up 2.0% year over year (YoY) and December traffic up 1.5%. This seasonal strength can be attributed to the format's sit-down and alcohol-forward dining options, which attract social holiday visits, as well as layouts that support quick trips and easy access to both essential and discretionary retail.
Meanwhile, outlet malls remained the weakest-performing format throughout 2025, with an annual traffic decline driven in part by a 1.1% drop in visits during the critical holiday season. This softness could reflect a broader shift in value perception. Price-conscious consumers may be increasingly weighing time cost alongside monetary savings, and long drives can offset the appeal of discounted pricing – particularly when promotions and loyalty incentives are widely available online and in traditional retail formats. To win consumers back, outlet malls may need to reduce the perceived time tradeoff by strengthening food and entertainment offerings and positioning themselves as curated, experience-driven value destinations rather than purely price-led ones.
Malls continue to resonate with a wide range of family segments, though different formats appeal to different household profiles. Across formats, higher-income and suburban family segments over-index among mall visitors. Indoor malls and open-air centers attract a disproportionate share of ultra-wealthy and affluent suburban households, underscoring malls’ ongoing relevance for consumers seeking family-friendly activities and experiences. Outlet malls, meanwhile, skew more heavily toward near-urban diverse families, reflecting their positioning as value-oriented destinations rather than lifestyle hubs.
At the same time, young professionals also play a meaningful role in mall traffic, over-indexing across all formats relative to their 5.8% share of the national population.
Across all formats, mall visitors also frequented mass merchants, big-box retailers, and off-price chains at high rates in 2025, underscoring that mall trips are often embedded within broader, multi-stop shopping routines rather than standing alone.
More than 70% of visitors across all mall formats also visited Walmart and Target at some point in 2025, and over half of mall visitors also visited Dollar Tree – underscoring how deeply mass merchants and discount chains are embedded in consumers’ retail lives. This indicates that malls face stiff competition as an everyday shopping destination. Malls that want to pull ahead in 2026 may focus on differentiating themselves from superstores by leaning into experiences and services that mass merchants cannot efficiently deliver – using tenant mix and programming to capture discretionary spend beyond routine retail needs.
Of the three formats, outlet malls showed the highest overlap with value-oriented and off-price chains, highlighting both their competitive pressure and their opportunity to redefine value. As discounted retail becomes increasingly ubiquitous, outlets can differentiate by extending value beyond merchandise—pairing sharp pricing with affordable dining, family-friendly entertainment, and experience-led programming that reinforces the outlet trip as a high-value day out, not just a bargain hunt.
Mall success in 2026 will likely hinge on maximizing the quality and purpose of each visit. Indoor malls are best positioned to double down on experiential retail, entertainment, and family-friendly programming that supports longer dwell times and higher discretionary spend. Open-air centers can continue to capitalize on convenience and dining-led visitation by optimizing for short, high-intent trips – particularly during peak seasonal periods.
For outlet malls, the opportunity lies in expanding the definition of value. As discounts become easier to access everywhere, outlets can differentiate by applying value thinking to food, entertainment, and experiences – turning the outlet trip into an affordable day out rather than a pure bargain hunt. Across all formats, operators and retailers that align tenant mix, layout, and programming with how consumers actually shop – across channels and formats – will be best positioned to capture wallet share in an increasingly fragmented retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The holiday shopping season traditionally stretches from Black Friday to New Years Eve: Shoppers looking to snag deals, purchase gifts, or enhance their celebrations drive visit spikes at retailers across the country. And although many consumers expressed concern over high prices impacting their holiday budget, spending in 2024 actually increased compared to 2023, with brick-and-mortar stores playing a key role in last year’s holiday season.
So where were the largest holiday spikes? How did last year’s calendar configuration impact retail traffic? Which segment came out ahead – and how did dining fit into the mix? Most importantly – what can we learn from the 2024 holiday season to prepare for 2025?
The holiday shopping season is the busiest time of the year for many retail categories. Between Black Friday and December 31st 2024, daily visits to brick-and-mortar stores increased 12.7%, on average, compared to the rest of the year.
Department stores led the pack, with visits to the segment 102.1% higher than the pre-holiday season average – likely aided by strong Black Friday performances. Other favorite gifting categories, including beauty & self care (72.7%), hobbies, gifts & crafts (60.9%), recreational & sporting goods (55.5%), clothing (41.8%), and electronics stores (32.7%) also received significant traffic boosts. Shopping centers benefited as well with a 24.8% increase in daily visits over the holiday season. Retailers in these segments can capitalize on their holiday popularity and stand out amidst the crowd by promoting their brand early and ensuring their staffing and inventory can accommodate the season’s traffic increases.
The holidays are also a time for entertainment – and purchasing gifts for hosts – which likely helped drive the 48.4% and 41.7% traffic increases at liquor stores and at furniture & home furnishings retailers, respectively. Superstores and discount & dollar stores – with their selection of affordable giftable products and entertainment essentials – also saw holiday-driven visit bumps of 21.2% and 20.2%, respectively. Retailers may choose to highlight seasonal items and hosting-friendly products to increase these traffic bumps in 2025.
Pet stores & services received a smaller (10.0%) bump than the wider retail average – indicating that, although some shoppers buy gifts for their fur babies, pets may not be at the top of most Americans’ gift lists. And visits to the home improvement segment were essentially on par with the pre-holiday period – indicating that the holidays are not the time for extensive home renovation projects. But home improvement chains looking to get in on the holiday action might consider promoting decorations and smaller giftable items in December.
And despite the grocery frenzy of Turkey Wednesday and Christmas Eve Eve, the Grocery segment received a relatively minor holiday boost of 5.0% – perhaps due to holiday travelers skipping their weekly grocery haul. Grocers who lean into prepared foods or pre-packaged meal kits might get an additional bump.
Although the holidays drive retail visit surges across the country, some regions see a bigger traffic bump than others.
In December 2024, almost all 50 states (with the exception of Wyoming ) received a holiday-driven retail traffic boost ranging from a 3.3% (Montana) to a 16.8% (New Hampshire). On a regional basis, the South received the largest increase: The West South Central, East South Central, and South Atlantic divisions received a collective 12.2% increase in daily visits between Black Friday and New Years Eve compared to the pre-Black Friday daily average. (Washington, D.C. saw a slight visit decline of 0.4%, likely due to the many residents leaving the capital for the holiday break.) Retailers in this region may choose to increase staffing and inventory ahead of the 2025 holiday season to handle the increased demand.
Meanwhile, the Midwest region had the smallest holiday-driven traffic spike (9.2%) – despite starting the season ahead of the pack, with the highest Black Friday weekend visit boost. This suggests that Midwestern retailers may have more success with early promotions than with last-minute discounts.
While the holiday season drove an overall retail visit boost nationwide, diving deeper into the data reveals that different retail segments peak at different points of the holiday season.
Most categories – especially the ones that tend to offer steep post-Thanksgiving discounts, such as recreational & sporting goods, department stores, electronics stores, and beauty retailers – received the biggest visit spikes on Black Friday. Retailers in these categories may benefit from promotional campaigns ahead of Thanksgiving to cater to early shoppers and maximize their performance on their busiest day.
Other segments that carry more affordable gifts, stocking stuffers, and food items gained momentum as Christmas approached – with superstores visits spiking on December 23rd and discount & dollar stores peaking on December 24th. These retailers may get even larger end-of-year visit bumps by offering discounts and bundles to last-minute shoppers.
The grocery segment received its largest boost ahead of Thanksgiving, with visits also surging on the days before Christmas as home cooks picked up supplies for the holiday dinner. Grocers who can save their shoppers time during this busy period by offering curbside pickup, pre-prepped ingredients or meal kits, and other conveniences may see particularly strong performances in 2025.
Calendar shifts also play an important role in shaping holiday shopping patterns. Last year, Super Saturday and “Christmas Eve Eve” – each a significant milestone in its own right – coincided on December 23rd, 2023 to create a supercharged shopping event that generated massive visit spikes at retailers across categories.
But in 2024, when the milestones occurred separately, important differences emerged between retailers. Gift-shopping destinations like Macy’s, Nordstrom, and Best Buy saw bigger visit spikes on Super Saturday, while retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco – carrying both gifts and food items – saw visits surge higher on December 23rd. Dollar Tree, a prime destination for affordable stocking stuffers, also experienced a more pronounced visit spike on Super Saturday.
Predictably, this year’s pre-Christmas milestones generally drove smaller individual visit spikes, as shoppers spread their errands across a longer period. But the stand-alone Super Saturday on December 21st 2024 also allowed consumers to prioritize gift-shopping on Saturday and shop for groceries and last minute stocking stuffers on December 23rd – benefiting certain retailers.
Nordstrom, for instance, saw visits soar to 215.9% above the chain’s 2024 daily average on December 21, 2024 – surpassing the 196.2% increase recorded on December 23, 2023. Macy’s also experienced a slightly higher Super Saturday visit boost this year. Next year, retailers can expect another spread-out pre-Christmas shopping period, with Super Saturday falling on December 20th, 2025 – five days before the holiday. Gift-focused retailers can leverage this timing by ramping up promotions in the run-up to Super Saturday – or by enhancing offerings on December 23rd to capture more late-season shoppers.
Big box retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco, conversely, can double down on December 23rd or amplify earlier deals to capture a larger share of Super Saturday traffic. And retailers across categories can benefit from the more extended last-minute shopping period by implementing multi-day sales and promotions that encourage repeat visits and drive traffic throughout the week.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is traditionally the grocery sector’s time to shine. And this year didn’t disappoint: On November 27th, 2024, visits to traditional grocery mainstays like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B shot up by a remarkable 66.9% to 79.2% compared to the 2024 daily average. And on December 23rd, foot traffic to the chains rose once again, though somewhat more moderately, as shoppers geared up for Christmas celebrations.
But the holiday season stock-up, it turns out, is about more than just food. Whether to help smooth out the rough edges of family interactions or to take celebrations to the next level, consumers also make pre-holiday runs to liquor stores. On Turkey Wednesday, leading spirit purveyors outperformed traditional grocery stores with epic 140.1% to 236.5% visit spikes. And the day before Christmas Eve was an even bigger milestone for the segment, with foot traffic skyrocketing by a staggering 153.6% to 283.8% above daily averages.
Ethnic supermarkets – chains like El Super and Vallarta Supermarket – also thrived on these traditional pre-holiday grocery store milestones. But like liquor stores, they saw bigger visit spikes on December 23rd, as customers likely sought out ingredients for their festive holiday dinners.
Grocery stores seeking to maximize the power of these pre-holiday milestones in 2025 could enhance their liquor selections and launch targeted promotions in the lead-up to both Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Dining venues are also impacted by the rhythms of the holiday season – but each segment within the dining industry follows its own unique seasonal trajectory.
Visits to the fast-casual, coffee, and fine-dining segments increased the week before Thanksgiving, with fast-casual and coffee visits peaking on Wednesday and fine-dining peaking on Thanksgiving day. Both coffee and fine-dining chains also received a small traffic bump on Black Friday, with coffee traffic likely aided by consumers looking to refuel during their shopping.
But beginning in mid-December, the fine-dining category pulled ahead of the other dining segments, picking up steam as the month wore on before peaking on December 23rd and 24th. And while traffic predictably declined on Christmas Day, the drop was less pronounced than for the other analyzed segments. Fine dining then resumed its strong showing on December 26th, maintaining elevated visits through the following days, potentially reflecting its appeal as a festive holiday dining destination for families.
Coffee chains and fast-casual restaurants also enjoyed moderately elevated December traffic, with smaller visit spikes on December 23rd. Traffic to both segments then slowed during the holiday – though coffee chains continued to see higher-than-average foot traffic on Christmas Eve – before tapering off as the month drew to a close.
Looking ahead to 2025, each dining segment can take steps to maximize its holiday impact. Fine dining chains can attract more special-occasion celebrants with unique holiday-themed menu items – paired with targeted promotions that make its premium offerings more accessible to families. Meanwhile, fast-casual and coffee chains can capitalize on high-traffic days like December 23rd by catering to the needs of busy holiday shoppers – extending operating hours and offering streamlined ordering and pickup options.
The 2024 holiday season proved strong for most retail categories, with each retail category displaying a different holiday visit pattern. This year’s calendar layout also presented a unique advantage, with a longer stretch between Super Saturday and Christmas compared to last year.
By analyzing 2024 holiday regional visit trends, understanding the role that each year’s specific calendar configuration plays in shaping consumer behavior, and identifying the unique retail milestones for each chain and category, retail and dining stakeholders can refine their strategies and make the most of the 2025 holiday season.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Professional sports are big business – the industry is valued at nearly $1 billion in the United States alone. And beyond the economic impact of actual ticket sales and stadium and sponsorship gains, major sporting events can have significant impacts on local industries such as tourism, dining, and hospitality. Cities hosting sports events tend to see influxes of visitors who boost tourism, spend money at restaurants and hotels, and create ripple effects that benefit entire local economies.
The 2024 Copa América, typically held in South America but hosted in the United States this year, provides a prime example of the effect sports tourism can have on local economies. The games kicked off in Atlanta, Georgia on June 20th, 2024, before moving on to other host cities and boosting hospitality traffic along the way.
This white paper dives into the data to see how the games impacted hotel visits in cities across America – and especially in Atlanta. The report uncovers the hotel tiers and brands that saw the largest visit boosts and explores visitor demographics to better understand the audiences drawn to the event.
The Copa América took place in June and July 2024, with fourteen cities – mainly across the Sunbelt – hosting games. Thousands of fans attended each event, driving up demand in local hotel markets.
Arlington, TX, saw the largest hotel visit bump during the week it hosted the games, with hospitality traffic up 23.0% compared to the metro area's weekly January to September 2024 visit average. Orlando, FL, too, enjoyed a significant visit spike (22.1%), followed by Kansas City, KS-MO (17.4%).
The Atlanta metropolitan area, for its part, also saw a significant 11.0% increase in hotel visits during its hosting week compared to the city’s weekly visit average.
The Copa América games attracted fans from across the country – from as far away as Washington State and New Hampshire, as well as from neighboring states like Florida. On the day the tournament began, 26.1% of the domestic visitors to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium came from over 250 miles away, up from an average of 19.7% during the rest of the year (January to September 2024). These out-of-towners likely had a significant impact on Atlanta’s local economy – through spending on accommodations, dining, and entertainment.
During the week of the Copa América game, all of the analyzed hotel types in Atlanta received a visit bump. And while some of these visits were likely unrelated to the game, the massive scale of the event means that a significant share of the visit growth was likely driven by out-of-town soccer fans. Analyzing these patterns Atlanta can provide valuable insights for hospitality stakeholders looking to attract attendees of major sporting events.
Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest boost during the week of the event, with visits 20.8% higher than the weekly visit average between January and September 2024. Midscale and Upscale hotels also experienced significant visit increases of 15.8% and 14.0%, respectively. During the same period, visits to Luxury hotels grew by 9.0% and Economy Hotel visits rose by 7.0% compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average. Meanwhile Upper Upscale Hotels received the smallest boost, with visits up by 2.9%.
Judging by these travel patterns, it appears that most Copa América spectators prefer to stay at Midscale, Upper Midscale, or Upscale hotels during the trip.
While Upper Midscale Hotels in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta metro area generally experienced the biggest visit boost during the Copa América, visit performance varied somewhat from chain to chain. TownePlace Suites and Fairfield Inn, both Upper Midscale Marriott properties, saw increases of 27.5% and 25.3%, respectively, compared to their January to September 2024 weekly averages. Other chains in the tier also enjoyed visit boosts – visits to Home2 Suites by Hilton and Hampton Inn – both Hilton chains – jumped by 17.3% and 17.4%, respectively, during the same period.
The popularity of these Upper Midscale hotels may be driven by a multitude of factors. Some, like TownePlace Suites and Home2 Suites offer kitchenettes, something that may appeal to visitors looking to save by preparing their own meals. Others, such as Fairfield Inn and Hampton Inn which offer more locations closer to the stadium may attract visitors that prioritize convenience.
Layering the STI: PopStats dataset onto Placer.ai’s captured market can provide insights into Copa América attendees by revealing the demographic attributes of census block groups (CBGs) contributing visitors to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The CBGs feeding visitors to a chain or venue, weighted to reflect the share of visitors from each one, are collectively referred to as the business’ captured market.)
During the Copa América opener,Mercedes-Benz Stadium drew visitors from CBGs with a median household income (HHI) of $90.0K – well above the national median of $76.1K and similar to the median HHI during the Taylor Swift concert ($90.6K). The stadium’s trade area median HHI was even higher during the Super Bowl ($117.9K).
This visitor profile suggests that Copa América attendees – along with guests of other major cultural and sporting events – often have the means to splurge on comfortable, mid-range hotels for their stays. As Atlanta gears up to host the College Football National Championship in January 2025, the 62nd Super Bowl in February 2028, and the MLB All Star Game in July 2025, along with a host of smaller-scale events – the city can draw on historical data from past events, including the Copa América, to better understand the needs and preferences of stadium visitors and plan accordingly.
And although Upper Upscale hotels generally experienced relatively subdued growth during the Atlanta Copa América opener, some Upper Upscale properties – including Marriott’s Autograph Collection Twelve Downtown, saw visits jump. Visits to the hotel were up 19.7% during the week of the Copa América compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average.
The Twelve Downtown has become a popular lodging choice for major events in the city, likely due to its proximity to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The hotel is located just over a mile away from the stadium). During the Super Bowl LIII five years ago, the Twelve Downtown drew 27.9% more visits than its weekly average for January to September 2019. And during the 2023 Taylor Swift concert, the hotel saw a 25.5% visit bump.
A closer look at the median HHI of the hotel’s captured market during the three periods reveals that, despite each event attracting visitors from varying income brackets, the median HHI of visitors to the Twelve Downtown remained stable. Visitors to the hotel between January and September 2024 came from trade areas where the median HHI was $76.2K, not far off from the median HHI during the 2019 Super Bowl ($75.4K), Taylor Swift’s 2023 concert ($80.6K) and the Copa América ($76.7K).
This stability suggests that, regardless of the event, hotels attract a specific visitor base. And understanding the similarities within the demographic profiles of likely hotel visitors during different events will be key for hotels at all levels seeking to capitalize on the economic opportunities created by major local events.
The Mountain region offers employment opportunities, affordable housing, outdoors recreation, and a relatively low cost of living – which could explain why these states are emerging as major domestic migration hubs. Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming in particular have consistently attracted inbound domestic migration in recent years, as Americans continue leaving higher density regions in search of greener – and calmer – pastures.
This report uses various datasets from the Placer.ai Migration Trends Report to analyze domestic migration to Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming. Where are people coming from? And how is recent migration impacting local population centers in these states? Keep reading to find out.
Idaho emerged as a domestic migration hotspot over the pandemic, as many Americans freed from the obligation of in-person work relocated to the Gem State. Between June 2020 and June 2024, Idaho saw positive net migration of 4.7%, more than any other state in the U.S. (This metric measures the number of people moving to a state minus the number of people leaving – expressed as a percentage of the state’s total population.) And between 2023 and 2024, Idaho remained the nation’s top domestic migration performer (see map above).
Diving into the data reveals that though people moved to Idaho from across the U.S., most of Idaho’s influx over the past four years came from neighboring West Coast and Mountain States – especially California. Former residents of the Golden State accounted for a whopping 58.1% of inbound migrants to Idaho over the analyzed period.
California’s position as the top feeder of relocators to Idaho during the analyzed period may come as no surprise, given the state’s recent population outflow and the many former California residents who have settled in the Mountain region. But Washington, Oregon, and Nevada – where inbound and outbound migration remained relatively even in recent years – have also been seeing shifts to Idaho.
Idaho has a lower tax burden, robust employment opportunities, and greater overall affordability than its top four feeder states. So some of the recent relocators likely moved to the Gem State to enjoy better economic opportunities while staying relatively close to their states of origin. And these recent Idahoans may be reshaping Idaho’s demographic and economic landscape in the process.
Most inbound migration to Idaho is concentrated in the state’s metro areas, with Boise – the capital of Idaho and the major city closest to California – consistently absorbing the highest share of net inbound migration.
But recently, other CBSAs have emerged as key destinations for new Idahoans. The location of two emerging domestic relocation hubs in particular suggests that many new Idaho residents may be looking to stay close to their areas of origin: Coeur d’Alene, located near the border with Washington, attracts its largest contingent of new residents from the Spokane, WA metro area, while Twin Falls’ top feeder area is the Elko CBSA in northern Nevada.
Twin Falls in southern Idaho has a strong job market – and has received a substantial share of inbound domestic migration over the past three years. Coeur d’Alene is also flush with economic opportunities, and after declining steadily for several years, the share of relocators heading to the metro area increased to 20.7% between June 2023 and 2024.
The chart above also reveals that the share of inbound migration heading to Boise declined slightly between June 2023 and June 2024 – following a period of consistent growth between June 2020 and June 2023 – even as the share of migration to Coeur d’Alene ballooned. This may mean that, although the state’s largest metro area may have reached its saturation point, other areas in the state are still primed to receive inbound migration.
While Nevada is losing some of its population to nearby Idaho, the Silver State is also gaining new residents of its own: Between September 2020 and September 2024, the Silver State experienced positive net migration of 3.3%. And the data indicates that many new Nevadans are choosing to settle in the state's rapidly growing suburban centers.
Zooming into the Las Vegas-Henderson CBSA reveals that much of the growth is concentrated outside the main city of Las Vegas. Instead, the more suburban cities of Enterprise, Henderson, and North Las Vegas received the largest migration bump – with Henderson and North Las Vegas’ population now surpassing that of Reno. And while year-over-year migration trends suggest that the growth is beginning to stabilize, Enterprise and Henderson are still growing significantly faster than the CBSA as a whole – indicating that the suburbs continue to draw Nevada newcomers.
Analyzing the inbound domestic migration to Enterprise – one of the fastest growing areas in the country – may shed light on the aspects of suburban Las Vegas that are driving population growth.
Many new Enterprise residents moved to the city from elsewhere in Nevada, while most out-of-state newcomers came from California or Hawaii – mirroring the migration patterns for Nevada as a whole. And according to the Niche Neighborhood Grades dataset, Enterprise is a good fit for retirees and young professionals alike, with the city ranking higher than its feeder areas with regard to a range of factors – from jobs and commute to weather.
Like with migration to the rest of the Mountain region, domestic migration to Nevada – particularly to suburban areas like Enterprise and Henderson – is likely driven by newcomers looking for more economic opportunities along with higher quality of life.
Wyoming – currently the least populous state in the country – is another Mountain region state where inbound migration is driving up the population numbers. But in the Cowboy State, urban areas – as opposed to suburban ones – seem to be the main magnets for population growth.
The Cheyenne, Wyoming CBSA – home to Wyoming’s capital – is the largest metro area in the state. And analyzing the CBSA’s population trends over the past six years reveals a recent shift in Wyoming’s inbound migration patterns.
Cheyenne’s population is mostly suburban, and the CBSA’s suburban areas remain popular with newcomers – suburban Cheyenne has also seen steady population growth since January 2018. But when the CBSA became a popular relocation destination over the pandemic, many newcomers to the Cheyenne region chose to move to metro area’s more rural areas: By April 2022, Cheyenne’s rural population had jumped by 10.8% compared to a January 2018 baseline, compared to a 5.9% and 3.9% increase in the CBSA’s suburban and urban populations, respectively.
As the country opened back up, however, the number of rural Cheyenne residents dropped back down – and by September 2024, Cheyenne’s rural population was only 0.1% bigger than it had been in January 2018. The population growth in suburban Cheyenne also slowed down, with the September 2024 suburban population numbers more or less on par with the April 2022 figures.
Now, Cheyenne’s urban areas have overtaken both rural and suburban areas in terms of population growth: In September 2024, Cheyenne’s urban population was 9.4% bigger than in January 2018, compared to 5.2% and 0.1% growth for the suburban and urban areas, respectively.
Despite the growth in Cheyenne’s urban population, the suburbs still remain the most populous – as of September 2024, 71.2% of the CBSA’s population resided in suburban areas. But the continued growth of Cheyenne’s urban population may reflect a rising demand among Wyomingites for amenities and economic opportunities unavailable elsewhere in the state, mirroring the trend in Idaho’s urban CBSAs such as Boise and Coeur d'Alene.
Cheyenne’s urban growth could be partially due to shifts in migration patterns. At the height of the pandemic, most newcomers to Cheyenne were coming from out of state, perhaps drawn by the quiet and spaciousness of rural Wyoming. But since 2022, the share of migration to Cheyenne from within Wyoming has grown – coinciding with the population increase in its urban areas and suggesting that Cheyenne's amenities are attracting more residents statewide.
This growing intra-state migration to Cheyenne’s urban areas underscores the city’s evolving role as a hub within Wyoming, appealing not just to newcomers from outside the state but increasingly to Wyoming residents seeking the benefits of a more urban lifestyle relative to the rest of the state.
The Mountain States are solidifying their status as key migration hubs in the U.S., driven by economic opportunities, affordable living, and lifestyle appeal. Between September 2023 and September 2024, Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming all experienced significant population growth due to inbound domestic migration. In Idaho, newcomers from neighboring states are boosting the population of the Gem State’s major metro areas. Meanwhile the Cheyenne, Wyoming, CBSA is emerging as a focal point for intra-state migration, with urban Cheyenne seeing particularly pronounced growth. And in Nevada, suburban hubs like Henderson and Enterprise are welcoming new arrivals seeking a balance of suburban comfort and economic potential. With the cost of living continuing to increase – and the Mountain region offering something for everyone through its various states – Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming are likely to remain top migration destinations in 2025 and beyond.
