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The arts and crafts sector is undergoing a major shakeup. Party City shuttered all corporate-owned stores early in the year after filing for bankruptcy, and by May, JOANN had closed its doors as well. But what could have been a moment of contraction for the largely discretionary category has instead accelerated growth for its strongest players. The industry is consolidating around two leaders – Hobby Lobby and Michaels.
What explains the continued strength of these two banners? And how are they positioning themselves to capture share in a reshaped retail landscape? We dove into the data to find out.
Despite its discretionary nature, crafting is flourishing in 2025. Screen-fatigued consumers are embracing hands-on, mindful projects like knitting, embroidery, and DIY décor as creative outlets and stress relievers. At the same time, crafting serves a practical role, producing inexpensive gifts and home decorations that help households stretch budgets while delivering creative satisfaction.
And Hobby Lobby and Michaels are making the most of this opportunity. Since April 2025, both chains have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, expanding their footprints while also driving more visits to existing locations. And with JOANN and Party City out of the picture, both retailers appear poised to capture displaced demand and further cement their leadership.
Each retailer is following a different path to success.
Michaels has leaned aggressively into the category's realignment. The company acquired JOANN's intellectual property and private-label brands to broaden its assortment and has moved quickly into Party City's vacated territory with an expanded lineup of balloons and party goods. Michaels is also doubling down on in-store experiences like birthday parties and leaning even more heavily into seasonal products – including for Halloween, Party City’s traditional stronghold.
This latter move could prove especially powerful during the upcoming spooky season. Halloween was historically Party City’s busiest period of the year, with October 2024 visits surging nearly 95% above the chain’s monthly average. With Party City gone – and Michaels already rolling out its “Summerween” offerings – the retailer looks well-positioned to capture some of that seasonal momentum and emerge as one of Halloween’s new retail destinations.
Hobby Lobby, by contrast, has stuck to its proven strategy of steadily expanding a nationwide fleet of large-format stores with broad, affordable selections. And this approach continues to pay dividends.
Though Hobby Lobby doesn’t really do Halloween, it carries plenty of seasonal decorations – which have traditionally driven substantial holiday visit boosts from November (see graph above). Hobby Lobby’s immersive environment also encourages extended browsing sessions, leading to longer visits. Between May and July of this year, shoppers averaged 31.4 minutes per trip to Hobby Lobby compared to 25.5 minutes at Michaels. The chain also leads in loyalty: Over the same period, 21.5% to 23.3% of visitors shopped at Hobby Lobby at least twice per month, a significant increase from last year.
Far from being sidelined as a discretionary indulgence, crafting has become an outlet for creativity, mindfulness, and affordability – and the shakeout of weaker players has only sharpened the advantage of category leaders. With Michaels pushing boundaries through innovation and seasonal dominance, and Hobby Lobby deepening loyalty through scale and consistency, both banners are positioned to ride the craft retail wave well into the future.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Black Rock Coffee Bar ended its NASDAQ debut in September 2025 at a market valuation of $1.32 billion – a remarkable showing for the relatively young coffee chain.
We took a closer look at the data to see what sets Black Rock apart from its competitors – and what might be fueling its remarkable valuation and early surge in share price.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, which was founded in Oregon and is currently based in Arizona, has been on an impressive growth trajectory– between 2020 and 2025, the chain doubled its unit count, and the company is now targeting 1,000 locations by 2035.
Fueled by its aggressive expansion, Black Rock’s traffic has surged since 2019, with Q2 2025 visits up 226.5% compared to Q3 2019. These trends echo the trajectory of Dutch Bros – another rapidly growing coffee chain founded in Oregon – whose growth path since 2019 closely mirrors Black Rock’s, as shown in the graph below.
Despite their shared origins and similar growth trajectories, the two chains draw distinct audiences. Dutch Bros tends to attract visitors from less affluent neighborhoods, both nationally and within Oregon – due in large part to its typically younger audience – whereas Black Rock Coffee’s customer base skews more affluent than the median in both contexts.
This contrast suggests that the coffee space has ample room for two Oregon-founded chains to scale quickly, as each taps into a distinct segment of the market with complementary growth potential. Dutch Bros can lean into accessibility and mass-market appeal, while Black Rock is positioned to build loyalty with higher-income consumers, potentially supporting premium offerings, differentiated experiences, and stronger long-term margins.
Focusing on recent months shows that – although Black Rock Coffee is maintaining overall positive visit growth – average visits per location have slipped slightly, as seen in the chart below. What does this mean for Black Rock Coffee's future?
Overall traffic is still climbing and new stores are expanding the brand's customer base, so the slowdown appears to be a short-term adjustment rather than a hard ceiling. But the dip in visits per venue may indicate that the chain is beginning to saturate its traditional western and southern markets – signaling that further growth may depend on expansion into new states and DMAs.
Black Rock Coffee's growth is reminiscent of that of Dutch Bros, and demographic differences between their audiences create room for both chains to continue expanding – though Black Rock's softer per-location trends bear watching as it expands. Still, the chain’s affluent customer base provides resilience and supports long-term growth, helping explain Black Rock Coffee's premium valuation and early market enthusiasm.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
East and South Asian grocery chains continue to perform well, with YoY visits outperforming the broader grocery segment in most cases, as seen in the chart below.
One factor behind the success of specialty grocery chains is their ability to serve as true destinations rather than just another place to pick up groceries, as visitor behavior data suggests that these grocers engage their visitors more deeply than traditional grocery chains.
Shoppers spend more time in these specialty grocery stores (27 to 41 minutes per visit on average compared to 23 minutes at traditional supermarkets). Consumers are also more likely to visit on weekends – the grocery category as a whole receives less than 33% of its visits on weekends, compared to H Mart, 99 Ranch Market, Mitsuwa Marketplace, and Patel Brothers where 39.3% to 42.4% of visits take place over the weekend. Together, these patterns reinforce the positioning of East and South Asian grocers as experiential, destination-driven retailers rather than routine errand stops.
Looking ahead, some chains are working on opening more stores, with H Mart slated to open four new locations in Florida, Texas, and California, while 99 Ranch just opened its first New York City location. These expansions signal continued momentum in both established and new markets.
The success of Southeast and East Asian grocers may highlight a broader consumer shift: shopping trips that feel purposeful, engaging, and even entertaining are increasingly valued in an age where routine purchases can be easily fulfilled online. Traditional grocers looking to tap into this trend may need to rethink their formats, merchandising, and in-store experiences, potentially leaning more into specialty assortments, foodservice options, or community programming. More broadly, for retailers of all types, the success of Asian grocers illustrates the growing importance of creating destination-driven experiences that transform shopping into an outing rather than a chore. Retailers who cultivate environments that invite discovery, linger time, and weekend traffic may find themselves better positioned to capture both customer loyalty and discretionary spending.
For the latest up-to-date grocery trends, check out our free tools.
Costco (COST) has maintained an impressive growth streak since the pandemic, with visits up year-over-year (YoY) every quarter since Q2 2021, as shown in the chart below.
Importantly, although the retailer has expanded significantly during this time, this growth has not been fueled by expansion alone: Same-store visits have also consistently increased during this period – indicating that the retailer is driving more traffic to existing stores and quickly building strong member bases at its new warehouses.
The latest data suggests that Costco has no plans of slowing down. Overall visits continued to grow in 2025 while same-store visits increased or held steady. And even as brick-and-mortar retail traffic softened over the summer, Costco bucked the trend: August 2025 traffic to Costco grew 5.5% YoY while same-store visits rose 4.0% – likely boosted by back-to-school demand.
In-store consumer behavior also highlights Costco's consumer appeal. Visitors to the chain spend considerably more time per visit than visitors to other superstores or grocery chains. This longer dwell time not only increases the likelihood of larger basket sizes, but also highlights the effectiveness of Costco’s curated merchandising strategy that offers consumers an engaging experience while encouraging cross-category shopping.
Macro conditions may help Costco grow even further in the near future. Gas prices have fallen recently, reducing the cost of driving to warehouse clubs often located outside dense residential areas. Grocery inflation has cooled as well, relieving pressure on households that might have pulled back from bulk purchases, while keeping value top of mind. Together, lower fuel costs and moderating food prices reduce friction and reinforce steady trip frequency to value-oriented, drive-to formats like Costco.
Looking ahead, Costco’s combination of consistent traffic growth, favorable macro conditions, and industry-leading in-store engagement underscores its resilience in a challenging retail environment. For investors, these trends point to continued revenue durability supported by membership economics and strong spend-per-visit. For retailers, Costco offers a blueprint: build loyalty through value and elevate engagement with experience. This approach has made Costco not only a standout performer today, but also one of the best-positioned retailers to sustain growth into the next cycle.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The state of the consumer was top of mind during second-quarter 2025 earnings calls, as restaurant executives consistently described a more cautious and discerning customer. Leaders from major brands like McDonald's, Chipotle, and Starbucks noted that lower-income consumers, in particular, are feeling the pressure of a challenging economy and are pulling back on the frequency of their visits.
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski framed it as a "two-tier economy," where affluent consumers continue to spend while lower-to-middle income households face significant cost-of-living pressures. This trend is visible in visitation data, which shows quick-service (QSR) and fast-casual restaurants underperforming full-service restaurants and coffee chains in recent months.
This consumer caution has led to a "trade-down" effect, where customers actively seek value-oriented promotions or skip add-ons like a beverage to manage their check size. In response, brands are emphasizing affordable meal bundles – like McDonald’s Extra Value Meals and Taco Bell’s Decades Y2K throwback menu featuring fan-favorites under $3 – and leveraging their loyalty programs to retain these budget-conscious patrons.
As 2025 progresses, QSRs face intense competition not just from each other, but from a growing array of value-oriented retailers. Driven by rising menu prices at fast-food chains, highly price-conscious consumers are actively seeking more affordable meal options. Value-oriented grocery stores, dollar stores, and convenience stores have aggressively expanded their grab-and-go and prepared food offerings, making them direct rivals for lunch and dinner.
As the price gap between dining out and eating at home widens, these channels are successfully capturing a greater "share of stomach," particularly from consumers who now view a trip to the grocery or dollar store as a more economical alternative to a QSR visit. We see this in our visitation data, where the number of McDonald’s and other other QSR visitors are increasingly visiting Aldi and other value-oriented options.
The lunch hour has become a key battleground, with fresh-format and value grocers seeing a notable increase in foot traffic as they expand their high-quality, convenient, and affordable grab-and-go options. This has siphoned off a portion of the traditional lunch crowd from fast-casual restaurants, as consumers – particularly office workers – increasingly opt for a trip to the grocery store.
This pressure contributed to weaker-than-expected results for premium fast-casual chains like Chipotle, Sweetgreen, and CAVA. While these brands were up against tough comparisons from product launches a year ago (Chicken al Pastor for Chipotle, steak options for sweetgreen and CAVA), the slowdown was more significant than anticipated.
What’s to make of this slowdown? In addition to tougher comparisons, the explanation is likely a multi-faceted consumer response to a challenging economic environment and a crowded marketplace. Like QSR chains, many budget-conscious fast-casual customers began trading down, either opting for less expensive fast-food alternatives or simply reducing the frequency of their visits to these pricier lunch spots.
At the same time, a segment of their health-conscious consumer base increasingly turned to specialty grocers like Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, where they could assemble their own high-quality bowls for a lower cost. Compounding the issue was a growing sentiment of "slop bowl" fatigue, a perception that the once-innovative format had become commoditized, with little differentiation between the chains, leading some consumers to seek out more unique dining experiences.
Chili's continued its significant outperformance of the restaurant industry in the second quarter of 2025 by successfully executing a multi-faceted strategy centered on a compelling value message that resonated with increasingly price-conscious consumers. The brand's success was largely driven by the popularity of its heavily marketed "3 for Me" bundled meal deal and its "Triple Dipper" appetizer promotion, which together attracted a surge of new and repeat customers. This effective value messaging was supported by substantial investments in marketing and crucial back-of-house operational improvements, which enhanced food quality and service consistency, allowing Chili's to capture a significant share of visits while many competitors in the casual dining space struggled with declining traffic.
It’s not just Chili’s however. Applebee's, for instance, managed to drive a 4.9% increase in same-store sales during its most recent quarter, a significant turnaround attributed to its own value-driven promotions and menu innovations that successfully boosted customer traffic. Olive Garden delivered a solid performance in its most recent quarter, achieving a 2.0% increase in same-restaurant sales. This growth was largely fueled by the success of its value promotions and a significant nearly 20% surge in takeout sales, which helped attract a younger, more frequent customer base according to management.
As the restaurant industry moves into the second half of 2025, the second quarter's results paint a clear picture of a market defined by a strategic, value-seeking consumer. The resounding success of casual dining chains like Chili's and Applebee's, which leaned heavily into affordable, bundled meals, demonstrates that a compelling value proposition can still drive significant traffic and sales. Conversely, the fast-casual and QSR segments are facing an identity crisis, squeezed by intense competition from lower-priced grocery and convenience store alternatives and the aggressive promotions from sit-down restaurants.
Ultimately, the brands that will thrive for the remainder of the year will be those that can master the art of delivering a strong, clear value equation – whether through price, experience, or convenience – to a customer who is more discerning with their dining dollars than ever before.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Since June 30, 2025, Costco has offered Executive members an extra hour to shop at many warehouses, and by September the perk expanded company-wide. Traffic data shows that the extended hours are already reshaping shopping patterns, with measurable impacts on both visit timing and dwell times.
The chart below compares Costco visit patterns between April and June 2025, before extended Executive Member hours were introduced, with July and August 2025, when most warehouses began offering exclusive early access from 9:00 AM to 10:00 AM. The additional morning hour appears to have encouraged some Executive members to shift their trips earlier in the day, which in turn reduced traffic concentration during late-morning and afternoon peaks.
This redistribution helps create a more balanced flow of visitors, likely improving the shopping experience for members overall.
The impact of early openings extends beyond when members shop – it also affects how they shop. The chart below, which tracks visit lengths before and after the introduction of early Executive openings, shows that the share of Costco visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes increased in July and August while the share of visits lasting 45 to 60 minutes fell.
This shift suggests that early-access shoppers are more purposeful and efficient, taking advantage of lighter crowds and easier store navigation. Importantly, Costco did not assign additional staff hours to cover the new morning window – a decision that seems to be validated by the data. With members shopping more efficiently, the company managed to enhance customer experience without increasing operational costs.
A Win-Win for Members and Retail Operations
By extending special hours to Executive members, Costco not only rewards high-value customers but also reduces congestion during traditional peaks. The smoother distribution of visits and more efficient shopping trips underscore how strategic adjustments to operating hours can drive meaningful changes in consumer behavior.
As retailers navigate evolving shopper expectations, Costco’s example highlights the power of data-driven scheduling to enhance both customer satisfaction and operational efficiency.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
2024 has been another challenging year for retailers. Still-high prices and an uncertain economic climate led many shoppers to trade down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences. Value took center stage, as cautious consumers sought to stretch their dollars as far as possible.
But price wasn’t the only factor driving consumer behavior in 2024. This past year saw the rise of a variety of retail and dining trends, some seemingly at odds with one another. Shoppers curbed discretionary spending, but made room in their budgets for “essential non-essentials” like gym memberships and other wellness offerings. Consumers placed a high premium on speed and convenience, while at the same time demonstrating a willingness to go out of their way for quality or value finds. And even amidst concern about the economy, shoppers were ready to pony up for specialty items, legacy brands, and fun experiences – as long as they didn’t break the bank.
How did these currents – likely to continue shaping the retail landscape into 2025 – impact leading brands and categories? We dove into the data to find out.
Bifurcation has emerged as a foundational principle in retail over the past few years: Consumers are increasingly gravitating toward either luxury or value offerings and away from the ‘middle.’ Add extended economic uncertainty along with rapid expansions and product diversification from top value-oriented retailers, and you have an explosion of visits in the value lane.
But we are seeing a ceiling to that growth – especially in the discount & dollar store space. Throughout 2023 and the first part of 2024, visits to discount & dollar stores increased steadily. But no category can sustain uninterrupted visit growth forever. Since April 2024, year–over-year (YoY) foot traffic to the segment has begun to slow, with September 2024 showing just a modest 0.8% YoY visit increase.
Discount & dollar stores, which attract lower-income shoppers compared to both grocery stores and superstores, have also begun lagging behind these segments in visit-per-location growth. In Q3, the average number of visits to each discount and dollar store location remained essentially flat compared to 2023 (+0.2%), while visits per location to superstores and grocery stores grew by 2.8% and 1.0%, respectively. As 2024 draws to a close, it is the latter segments, which appeal to shoppers with incomes closer to the nationwide median of $76.1K, which are seeing better YoY performance.
The deceleration doesn’t mean that discount retailers are facing existential risk – discount & dollar stores are still extremely strong and well-positioned with focused offerings that resonate with consumers. The visitation data does suggest, however, that future growth may need to focus on initiatives other large-scale fleet expansions. Some of these efforts will involve moving upmarket (see pOpShelf), some will focus on fleet optimization, and others may include new offerings and channels.
Return of the middle anyone?
Still, in an environment where consumers have been facing the compounded effects of rising prices, value remains paramount for many shoppers. And brands that have found ways to let customers have their cake and eat it too – enjoy specialty offerings and elevated experiences without breaking the bank – have emerged as major visit winners this year.
Trader Joe’s, in particular, has stood out as one of the leading retail brands for innovative value in 2024, a trend that is expected to continue into 2025.
Trader Joe’s dedicated fan base is positively addicted to the chain’s broad range of high-quality specialty items. But by maintaining a much higher private label mix than most grocers – approximately 80%, compared to an industry average of 25% to 30% – the retailer is also able to keep its pricing competitive. Trader Joe’s cultivates consumer excitement by constantly innovating its product line – there are even websites dedicated to showcasing the chain’s new offerings each season. In turn, Trader Joe’s enjoys much higher visits per square foot than the rest of the grocery category: Over the past twelve months, Trader Joe’s drew a median 56 visits per square foot – compared to 23 for H-E-B, the second-strongest performer.
Casual dining chain Chili’s has also been a standout on the disruptive value front this past year – offering consumers a full-service dining experience at a quick-service price point.
Chili’s launched its Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, adding the item to its popular ‘3 for Me’ offering, which includes an appetizer, entrée, and drink for just $10.99 – lower than than the average ticket at many quick-service restaurant chains. The innovative promotion, which has been further expanded since, continues to drive impressive visitation trends. With food-away-from-home inflation continuing to decelerate, this strategy of offering deep discounts is likely to continue to be a key story in 2025.
Convenience is king, right?
Well, probably not. If convenience truly were king, visitors would orient themselves to making fewer, longer visits to retailers – to minimize the inconvenience of frequent grocery trips and spend less time on the road. But analyzing the data suggests that, while consumers may want to save time, it is not always their chief concern.
Looking at the superstore and grocery segments (among others) reveals that the proportion of visitors spending under 30 minutes at the grocery store is actually increasing – from 73.3% in Q3 2019 to 76.6% in Q3 2024. This indicates that shoppers are increasingly willing to make shorter trips to the store to pick up just a few items.
At the same time, more consumers than ever are willing to travel farther to visit specialty grocery chains in the search of specific products that make the visit worthwhile.
Cross visitation between chains is also increasing – suggesting that shoppers are willing to make multiple trips to find the products they want – at the right price point. Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, the share of traditional grocery store visitors who also visited a Costco at least three times during the quarter grew across chains.
Does this mean convenience doesn’t matter? Of course not. Does it indicate that value, quality and a love of specific products are becoming just as, if not more, important to shoppers? Yes.
The implications here are very significant. If consumers are willing to go out of their way for the right products at the right price points – even at the expense of convenience – then the retailers able to leverage these ‘visit drivers’ will be best positioned to grow their reach considerably. The willingness of consumers to forego convenience considerations when the incentives are right also reinforces the ever-growing importance of the in-store experience.
So while convenience may still be within the royal family, the role of king is up for grabs.
Convenience may not be everything, but the drive for quicker service has emerged as more important than ever in the restaurant space. Diners want their fast food… well, as fast as possible. And to meet this demand, quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and fast-casual chains have been integrating more technology into their operations. Chipotle has been a leader in this regard, unveiling the “Autocado” robot at a Huntington Beach, California location last month. The robot can peel, pit, and chop avocados in record time, a major benefit for the Tex-Mex chain.
And the Autocado seems to be paying off. The Huntington Beach location drew 10.0% more visits compared to the average Chipotle location in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro area in Q3 2024. Visitors are visiting more frequently and getting their food more quickly – 43.9% of visits at this location lasted 10 minutes or less, compared to 37.5% at other stores in the CBSA.
Are diners flocking to this Chipotle location to watch the future of avocado chopping in action, or are they enticed by shorter wait times? Time will tell. But with workers able to focus on other aspects of food preparation and customer service, the innovation appears to be resonating with diners.
McDonald’s, too, has leaned into new technologies to streamline its service. The chain debuted its first (almost) fully automated, takeaway-only restaurant in White Settlement, TX in 2022 – where orders are placed at kiosks or on app, and then delivered to customers by robots. (The food is still prepared by humans.) Unsurprisingly, the restaurant drives faster visits than other local McDonald’s locations – in Q3 2023, 79.7% of visits to the chain lasted less than 10 minutes, compared to 68.5% for other McDonald’s in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA. But crucially, the automated location is also busier than other area McDonald’s, garnering 16.8% more visits in Q3 than the chain’s CBSA-wide average. And the location draws a higher share of late-night visits than other area McDonald’s – customers on the hunt for a late-night snack might be drawn to a restaurant that offers quick, interaction-free service.
Changing store formats is another key trend shaping retail in 2024. Whether by reducing box sizes to cut costs, make stores more accessible, or serve smaller growth markets – or by going big with one-stop shops, retailers are reimagining store design. And the moves are resonating with consumers, driving visits while at the same improving efficiency.
Macy’s, Inc. is one retailer that is leading the small-format charge this year. In February 2024, Macy’s announced its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround plan including the downsizing of its traditional eponymous department store fleet and a pivot towards smaller-format Macy’s locations. Macy’s has also continued to expand its highly-curated, small-format Bloomie’s concept, which features a mix of established and trendy pop-up brands tailored to local preferences.
And the data shows that this shift towards small format may be helping Macy’s drive visits with more accessible and targeted offerings that consumers can enjoy as they go about their daily routines: In Q3 2024, Macy’s small-format stores drew a higher share of weekday visitors and of local customers (i.e. those coming from less than seven miles away) than Macy’s traditional stores.
Small-format stores are also making inroads in the home improvement category. The past few years have seen consumers across the U.S. migrating to smaller suburban and rural markets – and retailers like Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware are harnessing their small-format advantage to accommodate these customers while keeping costs low.
Harbor Freight tools and Ace Hardware’s trade areas have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S., many of which have populations under 200K. And while it can be difficult to justify opening a Home Depot or Lowe’s in these hubs – both chains average more than 100,000 square feet per store – Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware’s smaller boxes, generally under 20,000 square feet, are a perfect fit.
This has allowed both chains to tap into the smaller markets which are attracting growing shares of the population. And so while Home Depot and Lowe’s have seen moderate visits declines on a YoY basis, Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware have seen consistent YoY visit boosts since Q1 2024 – outperforming the wider category since early 2023.
Are smaller stores a better bet across the board? At the end of the day, the success of smaller-format stores depends largely on the category. For retail segments that have seen visit trends slow since the pandemic – home furnishings and consumer electronics, for example – smaller-format stores offer brands a more economical way to serve their customers. Retailers have also used smaller-format stores to better curate their merchandise assortments for their most loyal customers, helping to drive improved visit frequency.
That said, a handful of retailers, such as Hy-Vee, have recently bucked the trend of smaller-format stores. These large-format stores are often designed as destination locations – Hy-Vee’s larger-format locations usually offer a full suite of amenities beyond groceries, such as a food hall, eyewear kiosk, beauty department, and candy shop. Rather than focusing on smaller markets, these stores aim to attract visitors from surrounding areas.
Visit data for Hy-Vee’s large-format store in Gretna, Nebraska indicates that this location sees a higher percentage of weekend visits than other area locations – 37.7% compared to 33.1% for the chain’s Omaha CBSA average – as well as more visits lasting over 30 minutes (32.9% compared to 21.9% for the metro area as a whole). For these shoppers, large-format, one-stop shops offer a convenient – and perhaps more exciting – alternative to traditionally sized grocery stores. The success of the large-format stores is another sign that though convenience isn’t everything in 2024, it certainly resonates – especially when paired with added-value offerings.
Many retail brands have entrenched themselves in American culture and become an extension of consumers' identities. And while some of these previously ubiquitous brands have disappeared over the years as the retail industry evolved, others have transformed to keep pace with changing consumer needs – and some have even come back from the brink of extinction. And the quest for value notwithstanding, 2024 has also seen the resurgence of many of these (decidedly non-off-price) legacy brands.
In apparel specifically, Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch – two brands that dominated the cultural zeitgeist of the 1990s and early 2000s before seeing their popularity decline somewhat in the late aughts and 2010s – may be staging a comeback. Bed Bath & Beyond, a leader in the home goods category, is also making a play at returning to physical retail through partnerships.
Anthropologie, another legacy player in women’s fashion and home goods, is also on the rise. Anthropologie’s distinctive aesthetic resonates deeply with consumers – especially women millennials aged 30 to 45. And by capturing the hearts of its customers, the retailer stands as a beacon for retailers that can hedge against promotional activity and still drive foot traffic growth.
And visits to the chain have been rising steadily. In Q4 2023, the chain experienced a bigger holiday season foot traffic spike than pre-pandemic, drawing more overall visits than in Q4 2019. And in Q3 2024, visits were higher than in Q3 2023.
And speaking of the 35 to 40 set – the generation that all retailers are courting? Millennials. Does that sound familiar? Yes, because this is the same generational cohort that retailers tried to target a decade ago. As millennials have aged into the family-formation stage of life, their retail needs have evolved, and the industry is now primed to meet them.
From the revival of nostalgic brands like the Limited Too launch at Kohl’s to warehouse clubs expanding memberships to younger consumers as they move to suburban and rural communities, there are myriad examples of retailers reaching out to this cohort. And Sam’s Club offers a prime example of this trend.
Over the past few years, millennials and Gen-Zers have emerged as major drivers of membership growth at Sam’s Club, drawn to the retailer’s value offerings and digital upgrades – like the club’s Scan & Go technology. Over the same period, Sam’s Club has grown the share of “Singles and Starters” households in its captured market from 6% above the national benchmark in Q3 2019 to 15% in Q3 2024. And with plans to involve customers in co-creating products for its private-label brand, Sam’s Club may continue to grow its market share among this value-conscious – but also discerning and optimistic – demographic.
Millennials are also now old enough to wax nostalgic about their youth – and brands are paying attention. This summer, Taco Bell leaned into nostalgia with a promotion bringing back iconic menu items from the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s – all priced under $3. The promotion, which soft-launched at three Southern California locations in August, was so successful that the company is now offering the specials nationwide. The three locations that trialed the “Decades Menu” saw significant boosts in visits during the promotional period compared to their daily averages for August. And people came from far and wide to sample the offerings – with a higher proportion of visitors traveling over seven miles to reach the stores while the items were available.
Hot on the heels of a tumultuous 2023, 2024’s retail environment has certainly kept retailers on their toes. While embracing innovative value has helped some chains thrive, other previously ascendant value segments, including discount & dollar stores, may have reached their growth ceilings. Consumers clearly care about convenience – but are willing to make multiple grocery stops to find what they need. At the same time, legacy brands are plotting their comeback, while others are harnessing the power of nostalgia to drive millennials – and other consumers – through their doors.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
