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The return to office (RTO) has been on an upswing, with employers across industries cracking down on remote work and requiring employees to put in more face time. Indeed, July 2024 emerged as the busiest in-office month since the pandemic. But what happened in August?
We dove into the data to find out.
August is a time for family vacations – and millions of Americans planned to take the roads and skies this summer to get away from it all and enjoy some downtime. So it may come as no surprise that the accelerated mandate-driven RTO seen in recent months – moderated somewhat in August, with a larger visit gap compared to the equivalent period of 2019 than that seen in July or in June.
Still, despite an end-of-summer slump, the nationwide office recovery appears to be very much underway. Office foot traffic last month was just 31.2% below pre-pandemic levels. Or put another way, August 2024 office visits were 68.8% of what they were in August 2019.
Drilling down into the data for major urban hubs throughout the country shows a continuation of recent trends, with Miami, New York, Atlanta, and Dallas outperforming the nationwide baseline. In Miami and New York, office visits were nearly 90.0% and 85.0%, respectively, of what they were pre-pandemic. And Atlanta, where employers from the CDC to UPS have begun enforcing stricter in-office policies, held onto its high ranking, with visits 75.6% of what they were in August 2019.
Indeed, Atlanta, which has seen a surge in office leasing activity, saw 7.3% year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in August 2024 – followed by Miami (5.7%). San Francisco – which despite lagging behind other cities compared to pre-pandemic, has been making steady YoY gains – came in third with a YoY visit increase of 3.0%.
Who are the employees driving this summer’s accelerated recovery?
Analyzing the trade areas of office buildings nationwide reveals that between June and August 2024, the Census Block Groups (CBGs) feeding visits to office buildings (their captured markets) continued to see a decline in their share of households with children – indicating that parents still account for fewer office visits than they did pre-pandemic. Employees with children, it seems, remain especially likely to place a premium on flexibility – embracing work routines that allow them to more efficiently juggle home and work responsibilities.
Over the same period, the share of one-person households in offices’ captured markets rose substantially, highlighting the important role played by young professionals – who may be more likely to be single – in today’s office recovery. Whether driven by a desire to embrace in-office career growth and mentorship opportunities, or by a craving for more social interaction, these employees are returning to the office in ever greater numbers.
With the school year underway and summer vacations already a not-so-distant memory, office foot traffic is likely to resume its upward trajectory. Will September 2024 set a new post-pandemic RTO record?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Malls ended summer with a bang. In May and June 2024, indoor malls, open-air shopping centers and outlet malls all experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, with indoor malls – which offer an escape from the sweltering heat – leading the way.
In July 2024, all three mall types experienced slight YoY visit gaps. But these were likely due to a calendar shift rather than to any flagging back-to-school momentum: July 2024 contained one less Saturday and Sunday than the equivalent period of 2023, when malls draw some of their biggest crowds. (In January-August 2024, weekends accounted for 39.0% of visits to indoor malls, 35.6% for open-air shopping centers, and 43.0% for outlet malls.) This shift, which likely had the most pronounced impact on outlet malls, may have obscured stronger YoY performance in July 2024.
And this year’s intense weather didn’t stop consumers from visiting malls in droves to take advantage of back-to-school shopping – which was in full swing by August 2024. That month saw the most substantial YoY foot traffic growth of the analyzed period, with YoY visit increases of 7.3% for indoor malls, 5.8% for open-air shopping centers, and 6.1% for outlet malls.
Who shopped at malls in August 2024? With back-to-school shopping being a significant motivator for consumers, it may come as no surprise that college students and families with children were overrepresented among end-of-summer mall hoppers – though not for all mall types.
Analysis of all three mall segments’ captured markets reveals that in August 2024, the share of college students in the trade areas of indoor malls and open-air shopping centers exceeded the nationwide average by 67% and 170%, respectively. These malls may be popular with college students due to their greater accessibility for students without cars, and for their recreational atmosphere – making them a good place to catch up with friends while shopping.
Meanwhile, the captured markets of outlet malls included slightly higher-than-average shares of households with children, perhaps as families on tight back-to-school budgets prioritized steep discounts. Indoor malls were also slightly more likely than average to draw this demographic.
With Summer 2024 in the books, it’s fair to say that mall foot traffic thrived during this critical retail season. How will mall visits shape up come spring?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
In 2024, auto parts retailers are continuing to see visit growth compared to last year. We dove into the data for three of the industry’s leaders – AutoZone, O’Reilly Auto Parts, and NAPA Auto Parts – to explore the consumer behavior and profiles behind the space’s ongoing success.
Auto parts retail visits have been bolstered in recent months by still-high vehicle prices – which have incentivized many cash-strapped consumers to fix up the car they have rather than buy a new one. To be sure, the industry hasn’t been entirely spared the effects of inflation, which has caused many consumers to tighten their (seat)belts and defer non-essential car repairs. Still, one of the key factors benefiting the space has been the greater prevalence of older vehicles on the road, which are more likely to need significant – and essential – maintenance.
Since the start of 2024, AutoZone and O’Reilly have sustained consistent year-over-year (YoY) monthly visit growth. And though NAPA saw mild visit gaps in March, June, and August – coinciding with traffic fall-off to some of the repair shops it supplies – it too experienced YoY increases throughout most of the analyzed period.
As auto parts inflation continues to wane in 2024, more consumers may begin taking on repairs they postponed last year, providing these retailers with continued foot traffic boosts.
Less affluent consumers are more likely to be deterred from buying a new ride by high prices and interest rates. And analyzing the demographic characteristics of visitors to AutoZone, O’Reilly, and NAPA reveals that in H1 2024, the median household incomes (HHIs) of the chains’ captured markets were indeed significantly lower than those of new car dealerships ($75.6K).
The data reveals a divide between consumers in the market for new cars – who generally have higher income levels – and those that frequent auto parts retailers to invest in their current set of wheels. And consumers seeking to repair rather than replace may be even more inclined to do so while vehicle prices and financing costs remain elevated.
Analysis of consumer spending habits provides a further indication that AutoZone, O’Reilly and NAPA’s audiences are more likely to invest in upgrades and repairs than in the purchase of a new vehicle.
In H1 2024, residents of AutoZone and O’Reilly’s captured markets spent 17% less annually on buying used cars than the nationwide average, while residents of NAPA’s captured market spent 14% less.
And residents of all three auto parts retailers’ trade areas spent even less on new car buying. In H1 2024, AutoZone’s captured market spent 23% less on new cars than the nationwide average, and O’Reilly’s and NAPA’s captured markets spent 22% and 18% less, respectively.
AutoZone and O’Reilly’s relatively large share of DIY consumers – those who repair or upgrade their cars on their own to save money – likely contributed to their trade areas’ smaller car buying expenditures. Meanwhile, the slightly larger spend on both new and used cars in NAPA’s trade area – though still significantly lower than the nationwide average – may be due to the retailer’s predominantly commercial business.
Auto parts chains have been riding strong tailwinds on the road to success – and they appear geared up for more foot traffic success in the homestretch of 2024. As more older vehicles stay on the road and car-buying costs remain high, robust demand for parts is likely to continue.
Will the auto parts industry accelerate even further in the months to come? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
It’s that time of year again. On August 22nd, Starbucks launched its much-vaunted autumn menu, including the iconic Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL). We dove into the data to see what happened on the big day – and how Starbucks visitation patterns were impacted by the much-anticipated release.
Last year, Starbucks broke with tradition to move its PSL launch from Tuesday to Thursday. And perhaps due to Thursday’s proximity to the weekend (especially in the age of the TGIF work week), the step has proven advantageous – generating a sustained visit spike lasting through the weekend.
On Thursday, August 22nd, 2024, foot traffic to Starbucks surged 24.1% higher than the coffee giant’s daily average for the previous eight Thursdays. And the PSL effect worked its magic throughout the weekend, with visits to Starbucks on the following Friday, Saturday, and Sunday significantly elevated compared to recent daily averages for those days of the week.
Since its debut in 2003, Starbucks’ PSL has become part of the cultural landscape. Each year, the beverage’s release generates a social media frenzy. And between 2021 and 2023, the number of people visiting Starbucks on Pumpkin Spice Latte launch day increased steadily.
Last year, the PSL visit spike reached new heights, with foot traffic 27.1% higher than on August 27th, 2019 – the last pre-pandemic PSL launch. And despite Starbucks’ recent challenges, visits on PSL day held steady this year, maintaining last year’s impressive gains.
Comparing visits on August 22nd, 2024 to recent Thursday visit averages across the continental U.S. highlights the broad appeal enjoyed by Starbucks’ fall menu. Every analyzed state enjoyed a visit bump – though the extent of the boost varied considerably between regions.
Many southern states – including Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi, saw only slight foot traffic bumps, perhaps due in part to the region’s warmer weather, which may render the early autumn launch less compelling. (Mississippi in particular, it seems, really couldn’t care less about Pumpkin Spice.) But in other areas, led by North Dakota (45.5%), Kansas (42.6%), Utah (42.2%), Iowa (41.3%), and Pennsylvania (39.5%), visits skyrocketed.
Starbucks’ successful PSL launch shows that even as consumers count their pennies, people are finding room in their budgets for sweet, cozy indulgences that don’t break the bank. What does the winning release portend for the upcoming winter season?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven dining and retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Back-to-school shopping is a major driver of retail visits and sales – and this year, spending on the upcoming school year was set to be the second-highest on record. So with the frenzy winding down, we took a look at how several key retail categories and chains performed during this important season.
Overall, retail rallied throughout July and August, with weekly visits to major back-to-school categories – including superstores, department stores, and other apparel retailers – mainly outperforming last year’s visit levels. Though department stores and apparel chains saw very slight YoY declines in late July, all the analyzed categories enjoyed YoY boosts beginning the week of August 5th. And since the back-to-school season is traditionally a high-traffic period, the ability of these categories to sustain YoY growth is particularly impressive.
Digging deeper into individual brands reveals substantial visit boosts at superstores Target and Walmart and warehouse membership club Costco.
Target, already enjoying positive momentum from summer sales events, drove visits even higher with steep discounts on essential back-to-school items. In addition to attracting parents on the hunt for kids’ school supplies, Target has emerged as a favorite destination for college students seeking to load up on dorm decor and other collegian necessities. And between the weeks of July 9th, 2024 and August 19th, 2024, the retailer saw weekly visits jump a remarkable 9.7% to 20.8% compared to a year-to-date (YTD) weekly average. Walmart and Costco, too, saw significant visit boosts in July August, as they drew crowds with discount and bulk offerings.
The strong performance of these retailers during the back-to-school season bodes well as they head into the critical holiday shopping period. With momentum on their side, Target, Walmart, and Costco are poised to capitalize on their competitive pricing and value offerings, potentially driving another period of robust growth.
Back-to-school often means outfitting kids and teens with new clothing, and off-price retailers – including Burlington, Marshalls, Ross, and T.J. Maxx – are reaping the benefits. With a reputation for low prices and everything from apparel to backpacks, these chains are popular choices for the back-to-school crowd. And this year, weekly visits to these retailers got a significant boost, with August 19th foot traffic up 11.0% at Burlington, 13.9% at Marshalls, 6.0% at Ross, and 15.8% at T.J. Maxx, compared to a YTD weekly average.
Superstores, department stores, and apparel retailers aren’t the only ones to benefit from the back-to-school craze – office supply stores, predictably, also experience major boosts. While weekly visits to Office Depot, OfficeMax (both owned by The ODP Corporation), and Staples had lagged behind the chains’ year-to-date (YTD) weekly visit averages during April and May, they began to recover in early July. By August, visits were surging, with the week of August 19th showing increases of 24.4% for Office Depot, 32.7% for OfficeMax, and 39.2% for Staples.
Getting a pair of new shoes for school is another time-honored tradition – and DICK’s Sporting Goods has heeded the call with massive markdowns. The chain drew back-to-school shoe and apparel shoppers with a major 50%-off sale, and visits jumped significantly – peaking during the week of August 12th at 40.5% above a January 1st, 2024 baseline.
Hibbett, meanwhile, supercharged its back-to-school campaign with discounts and free children’s haircuts, offered between July 28th and August 25th at different locations. And the events boosted foot traffic dramatically, with the week of July 29th seeing a whopping 76.1% visit increase compared to a January 1st, 2024 baseline. Though visits to both sporting goods chains began to taper off as August wore on, they remained elevated – serving as a reminder of the power of back-to-school shopping and sales.
Back-to-school season remains one of the most important shopping periods of the year, with significant consumer demand drawing visit growth across major retail categories.
Can these retailers continue drawing on this momentum into the holiday season?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
In July & August 2024, Placer.ai released multiple white papers: Los Angeles Office Trends in 2024, Q2 2024 – Retail & Restaurant Review, Domestic Tourism Trends in NYC and LA, 2024 Hotel Visit Trends, Emerging Trends for CRE in 2024, and Retail Giants in 2024: Walmart, Costco, and Target's Competitive Edge.
Below is a taste of our findings from two white papers: 2024 Hotel Visit Trends and Retail Giants in 2024: Walmart, Costco, and Target's Competitive Edge. The two white papers take a look at the visitation data to explore how leading hotel chains are driving visits in 2024, as well as exploring how Walmart, Costco, and Target are maintaining their success.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
Analyzing the captured markets* of Upper Midscale chains Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Walmart, Target, and Costco are three of the country’s most popular retailers, drawing millions of shoppers each day. Each has distinct strengths that cater to their unique customer bases, helping them thrive in a competitive market.
Costco’s wholesale club model led the way in H1 2024, with consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth ranging from 6.1% in January 2024 to 13.3% in June. Walmart followed closely, with YoY foot traffic growth during all but two months. Target had a slower start, with visits below 2023 levels from January to April, and a 3.7% decline in YoY comparable sales. However, visits rebounded in May (2.5%), June (8.9%), and July (4.7%). This renewed growth bodes well for Target, especially as the back-to-school season ramps up.
For all three chains, Q2 2024’s visit success was likely bolstered by summer deals and intensifying price wars aimed at attracting inflation-weary consumers back to the store.
While inflation is cooling, prices remain high, and discount and dollar stores are increasingly challenging Walmart, Target, and Costco. Many customers, especially those of more modest means, are drawn to the rock-bottom prices at dollar stores.
Analysis of cross-shopping patterns shows that a growing share of Walmart, Target, and Costco visitors also frequent Dollar Tree regularly. In Q2 2019, between 9.8% and 13.7% of visitors to these retailers visited Dollar Tree at least three times, but by Q2 2024, that share rose to 16.7%-21.6%.
Dollar Tree is capitalizing on this interest. Over the past year, it added 350 Dollar Tree locations while closing nearly 400 Family Dollar stores. The chain also acquired leases for 170 99 Cents Only Stores, gaining access to customers who buy everything from groceries to household goods. As Dollar Tree expands its footprint and food offerings, it poses a growing challenge to Walmart, Target, and Costco.
Read the full reports to discover more hotel and superstore insights. For more data-driven consumer research, visit our resource library.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
