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Albertsons Companies is one of the largest grocery holding companies in the U.S., operating over a dozen regional grocery banners and serving millions of shoppers across the country.
With such a broad presence, the brand caters to a highly diverse customer base – but some overall trends can be observed on a nationwide scale. We took a closer look at the overall visitation patterns the brand experienced in Q3 2024 and dove into the demographics of some of its largest markets.
Year over year (YoY), Q3 2024 visits to Albertsons’ banners dropped 1.4% compared to the equivalent period of 2023, possibly reflecting the ongoing financial strain consumers face amid rising grocery prices. Despite this, visits to the company’s chains were significantly higher than pre-pandemic, with Q3 2024 visits up by 10.8% compared to 2019.
Analyzing quarterly visits to Albertsons’ banners relative to a Q1 2019 baseline further highlights the chain’s firm long-term positioning. After dropping during the pandemic, visits increased steadily through Q4 2022 – and have held steady since, despite the challenges facing traditional grocery stores over the past two years. This indicates that even in the face of the growing competition posed by online and value grocers, Albertsons has succeeded in holding onto gains and maintaining its standing within the sector.
While major holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas are known for driving grocery visits, other key dates also spark significant foot traffic across Albertsons’ banners. For instance, during the week of July 1, 2024, visits to the company’s portfolio spiked by 14.1% compared to the year-to-date (YTD) weekly visit average, as customers flocked to stores for July 4th weekend supplies.
Mother’s Day also drove significant foot traffic, with visits during the week of May 6, 2024 rising 10.8% above the YTD average. So with Halloween, Turkey Wednesday, and Christmas just around the corner, Albertsons appears poised to enjoy a busy holiday season.
Albertsons’ extensive reach means that it attracts a broad spectrum of consumers, but overall, the company tends to over-index for wealthier and suburban markets.
Using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to analyze Albertsons' trade areas reveals that, on a nationwide level, the company’s captured market has higher shares of wealthy and suburban consumer segments than its potential one. (A business’ potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area weighted according to the size of its population. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain or venue in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base).
During the first eight months of 2024, for example, the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” in Albertsons’ captured market stood at 13.7%, higher than the company’s potential market share of 10.7%. This suggests that from within the overall trade areas served by Albertsons, the chain is especially successful at attracting this affluent demographic.
On the flip side, consumer groups like “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” were underrepresented in Albertsons’ captured market compared to its potential one. This signals potential growth opportunities for Albertsons, as they could expand their appeal to younger, city-based segments.
Albertsons continues to offer something for everyone, enjoying visit boosts offered by special calendar days and growing its foot traffic relative to pre-pandemic.
For the latest data-driven grocery insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
It’s been quite a year for coffee and beverage chains. Heading into the year, we thought the category would see strong visitation trends due to store expansion, return-to-work, menu innovation, migration, and new approaches to promotional strategies. By and large, that has played out, with mid-single-digit visitation growth on a year-over-year basis (excluding January, which was negatively impacted by inclement weather across much of the country, and April, which was impacted by a calendar shift that resulted in four weekends this year versus five in the year-ago period).
Of course, the category has been much more nuanced. Category-leader Starbucks has seen visits moderate, which played a part in one of the more notable leadership changes in the restaurant industry history. However, as we’ve discussed over the past several years, the shift to drive-thru focused coffee and beverage chains has accounted for much of the growth. Below, we’ve presented visits per location for eight of the leading coffee and beverage chains. Drive-thru chains like Dutch Bros., Scooter’s Coffee, 7 Brew Coffee, and Biggby Coffee all remain well above their pre-pandemic visit per location trends, even as they continue to aggressively expand unit openings. On the other hand, traditional players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Tim Hortons, and Caribou Coffee have all seen visit per location declines the past several years.
The success of these emergent competitors will likely result in further changes across Starbucks and other legacy coffee chains. New Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol has already made it clear that, going forward, Starbucks stores will have “a clear distinction between “to-go” and “for-here” service”, and we suspect other chains will follow suit.
For fashion-focused consumers, there’s never been more choices available to shop. While luxury brands and retailers are still viewed as the trend setters, there are many brands in the mid-tier luxury market gaining traction. At a time when perceived value is paramount to shopper decision-making, brands that provide a great experience and on-trend styles that won’t break a budget are winning visits.
Product knowledge, recommendations and styling tips can all be accessed in the digital and social world, which gives smaller brands a fighting chance at connecting with shoppers who may not have stores located near them. Those brands whose social presence also coincides with a physical shopping experience, they’re able to build a cult-like following.
Accessories is a market that’s even further fragmented when it comes to the number of consumer choices, specifically in areas like handbags. Brands that have found their niche in the mid-tier market, like Clare V. and Stoney Clover Lane, have been able to hedge against the headwinds facing most discretionary brands. Although each brand has a handful of locations in comparison to accessory behemoths, their unique selection, brand storytelling and ability to assimilate to local environments have helped them to garner quite the following.
In comparing both brands to other apparel and accessories sectors, they have outperformed the other areas handily throughout 2024. Certainly fashion is very cyclical; one day, a brand is hot, and within a few weeks the craze might be over. However, both of these brands have been around since before the pandemic and continued to climb.
Looking further into Stoney Clover Lane, the brand is known for its colorful nylon pouches, purses and luggage that consumers can customize with a broad assortment of patches. The brand has also had licensing partnerships with brands such as American Girl and Disney.
Its physical retail presence combines experiences and an expansive assortment where consumers can customize their bags in store with patches and also attend local events. The brand has the highest percentage of weekend visits compared to the competitive set, and it’s clear that it’s a destination retailer for visitors.
Stoney Clover Lane’s Nashville outpost, located in the popular 12 South neighborhood, offers the product customization as well as a performance stage to infuse some of the local culture into the store. Looking at the visitor journey for this location, there is a high level of cross visitation to hotels and restaurants, indicating that this store may serve as a destination for out-of-town travelers who want to shop the location. Placer’s Trade Area feature corroborates this, as there is a high concentration of visits from other Southern cities including Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas and Miami.
Clare V. blends the iconic styles of Los Angeles and Paris into an accessories brand that feels inherently cool. Its retail locations feel like an art museum blended with your best friend’s closet and each store location incorporates the local feel of the neighborhood it inhabits, including iconic locations like the Brentwood Country Mart in Los Angeles.
Clare V.’s Chicago shop draws a more local crowd, with a high level of cross-vistation to and from home as well as transportation services. Other neighborhood shops, restaurants and venues like Wrigley Field also have high levels of cross-visitation for visitors to Clare V.. By entrenching itself into the local look and feel of the neighborhoods it occupies, this national brand still feels like a well kept secret for those passing by. In comparing the trade area of the Chicago location in 2024 and 2023, the brand has been able to expand its reach further in Western Chicago Suburbs this year.
It’s been about a month since Labor Day, so let’s take a look and see how return-to-office (RTO) has been faring year-to-date. A majority of states saw fairly sizable bumps in year-over-year office traffic at the beginning of the year. The return in the state of Washington was particularly pronounced in the first four months of the year, with a 40% increase in January 2024 compared to January 2023.
Texas saw a bit of a decrease in May, June, and August. Overall, Houston and Dallas account for more of the office visits, followed by Austin.
Houston drove a decrease in office visits in the months of May, June, and August, while office visits were largely flat in September, with the exception of Austin, which showed a decline compared to the prior year.
There are multiple reasons potentially driving some of the decreases in Houston. The devastation of Hurricane Harvey in 2017 resulted in a long recovery. Many large companies along the I-10 chose to reduce their office footprint. However, per Avison Young, vacancy rates are lower at trophy assets.
Interestingly, those commuting 10-25 miles away have a lower RTO rate than those living 0-5 miles away, 5-10 miles away, or 25+ miles away. The first two make sense as we generally see higher RTO rates among those living within a closer commuting distance.
Dallas sees a similar pattern, though those who live within 5 miles have returned to office at a considerably higher rate at 85% than those farther afield.
One of the more intriguing patterns we are seeing is in Austin, Texas. Here, the RTO rate is actually higher the longer the commute. This seems rather counterintuitive, as in most locations, highest RTO rates are found the closer one lives to the office. New York is more typical, as we see that people are more likely to come into the office the closer they live.
Austin may, in fact, be a victim of its own success. Per Placer’s Migration Dashboard, its population has skyrocketed in the past few years. With more demand comes higher prices, and as a result, people are forced to move farther out in their quest for homes or more land. On the other hand, Austin traffic is not nearly as bad as some major cities like Los Angeles or New York, so living 25+ miles may not be as daunting a prospect when it comes to commuting.
Another huge factor? The move from California to Austin, Texas for Tesla's HQ means that it is now Austin’s largest employer, surpassing H-E-B, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made it clear that he expects his employees to fully return to office. Both visits and visitors to Giga, Texas have exploded.
With Q4 2024 just underway, retailers are already gearing up for the all-important holiday season. A condensed shopping window – just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year – is prompting many to launch early deals and promotions. And though consumers remain cautious, shoppers are expected to spend more this year than they did in 2023.
But what can recent visitation trends tell us about how this year’s holiday season will really play out? We dove into visit data for various retail categories and chains to try and predict what’s in store for the all-important fourth quarter of 2024.
A look at the overall state of brick-and-mortar retail this year offers a glimpse into what we can expect this holiday season.
Since January 2024, monthly retail foot traffic has generally been on an upswing, with YoY visits up most months since January 2024 – and foot traffic higher than in 2022 or 2019 (pre-pandemic). This steady rise in retail visits signals strong consumer engagement in 2024, setting the stage for what may turn out to be a robust Q4.
Holiday promotions are kicking off early this year, offering customers more time to take advantage of deals and helping retailers navigate supply chain and logistics challenges. And though early sales are nothing new, 2024’s shorter holiday shopping season may suffuse them with more significance than ever.
In 2023, Thanksgiving fell on November 23rd, leaving consumers with 32 days in which to do their holiday shopping. But this year, the holiday will be on November 28th, shortening the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas by five days. To make up for lost time, retailers and consumers alike may embrace an early shopping frenzy, potentially detracting from the power of milestones like Black Friday, Super Saturday, and Christmas Eve Eve.
But a look at consumer behavior during special calendar days this year suggests that traditional retail milestones still very much resonate with customers. On Mother’s Day, Memorial Day, and Labor Day, key industries saw YoY visit boosts, though the magnitude of the increases varied across categories.
On Mother’s Day, for example, the beauty and wellness sector saw a 3.2% YoY increase in visits – highlighting the category’s enduring popularity for grateful offspring seeking to give mom a special gift. But on Memorial Day, department stores had their time in the sun, overshadowing other segments with a 7.2% YoY visit boost.
Overall, these occasions proved particularly effective at driving consumer engagement this year. So whether by targeting big days like Black Friday or planning extended holiday campaigns, the 2024 holiday season gives retailers a great chance to benefit from consumer excitement.
While all retail categories participate in the holiday season's flurry of sales, promotions, and limited-time offers, a select few shine especially bright during this period. These segments’ strong performance can often make up for quieter stretches earlier in the year.
Department stores are prime examples of holiday season winners. An analysis of weekly visits throughout 2023 shows that department stores experience one of the most impressive visits spikes of the holiday season. In the week leading up to Christmas, visits to department stores surged 113.4% compared to a 2023 weekly average – highlighting the segment’s success at positioning itself as a go-to destination for holiday shopping.
Another standout during the holiday season is the hobbies, gifts, and crafts category. Unlike department stores, this category sees a more evenly-distributed rise in foot traffic across Q4, with peaks leading up to Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. This pattern reflects the popularity of holiday-related decorations and gifts, which drive increased visits during these festive periods.
These two powerhouse categories – department stores and hobbies, gifts, and crafts – are poised to dominate the 2024 holiday season, just as they did last year. And with consumer spending expected to rise and foot traffic showing no signs of slowing, both categories have significant potential for even greater success this year.
The upcoming holiday season looks on track to be a big one. Despite the shorter shopping window, retailers are taking steps to maximize shopping opportunities with early promotions. And against the backdrop of this year’s robust consumer engagement – especially around milestones – Q4 is shaping up to be a festive season indeed.
Will retailers rise to the challenge? Follow Placer.ai to see how this holiday season unfolds.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Grocery stores have been on an upward foot traffic trajectory as of late, and Trader Joe’s – with its cult-like following – is often near the top of the pack.
We dove into the location analytics for the chain, exploring its nationwide performance and visitor trends in its home state of California, to uncover what’s behind the grocer’s ongoing success.
Despite positive signs that food-at-home inflation is stabilizing, many consumers are still feeling the pinch of high grocery costs. And with the help of its wide range of premium-quality, private-label products, Trader Joe’s offers an upscale experience at prices that are attractive to value-conscious grocery shoppers.
Perhaps bolstered in part by several new locations, Trader Joe’s year-over-year (YoY) visit growth has outperformed the wider grocery category every month of 2024 so far. And the chain appears to be doubling down on its expansion strategy, with two dozen new stores planned through the end of 2024.
By continuing to meet consumer demand for value and quality, and through the ongoing expansion of its fleet, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain foot traffic growth in the near future.
In addition to competitive pricing and a growing real estate footprint, examining visitor dynamics in California – Trader Joe’s largest market by far – suggests that the chain may be driving success by becoming more shoppers’ principal grocery destination.
Between January and August 2024, California Trader Joe’s experienced YoY visit growth ranging from 3.2% to 11.1% – while YoY foot traffic to the wider grocery segment ranged from -2.7% to 4.6%. And over the same period, the share of Trader Joe’s visitors that also frequented other leading California grocery chains decreased significantly – indicating that TJ’s is making inroads with some of its toughest competition in the state.
Between January and August 2023, for example, 50.1% of visitors to a California Trader Joe’s also visited Ralphs – a share that dropped to 47.1% during the equivalent period of 2024. Similar patterns could be observed for VONS, Sprouts Farmers Market, and even California’s grocery visit leader, Safeway.
This suggests that a growing percentage of Trader Joe’s shoppers may be relying on the chain for more of their essentials – rather than visiting TJ’s in addition to a traditional grocery store.
Diving deeper into the demographic characteristics of visitors to California Trader Joe’s provides further insight into the consumers driving the chain’s statewide YoY visit gains. Analyzing California TJ’s trade areas with data from STI: PopStats reveals that Trader Joe’s drives an outsized share of visits from singles – living on their own or with roommates.
Between January and August 2024, 26.5% of residents in Trader Joe’s California captured market lived in one-person households – compared to a statewide average of 22.9%. Meanwhile, 10.0% of the trade area residents were from non-family households – well above the state average of 8.0%.
This could be partially due to Trader Joe’s ongoing investment in college town locations, as well as its fail-safe frozen food selection – a winner with novice cooks pressed for time or space for meal-prep. Plus, Trader Joe’s boasts cheerfully-themed, seasonal products that change every few months, which may be particularly likely to resonate with college students that follow seasonal rhythms of their own.
Trader Joe’s continues to shine in the grocery space in part due to ongoing consumer demand for value and the chain’s expansion. And in California, a loyal and disproportionately single audience is a significant driver of foot traffic.
For updates and more grocery foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.
2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.
3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.
4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.
5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.
While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.
Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket.
The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.
Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.
One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.
Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.
Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping.
While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail.
For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.
This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.
Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022.
This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product.
Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.
So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends.
As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.
This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.
Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.
In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.
Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey.
As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.
Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.
