.svg)
While a state’s share of brick-and-mortar retail visits generally tracks with its share of the U.S. population, the chart below shows that the relationship is not perfectly proportional. Some states, such as Texas and Florida, generate a larger share of retail traffic than their population size alone would suggest, while others, such as California and New York, account for a smaller portion of visits relative to their population base.
Mapping each state’s share of retail visits to its share of the population reveals a clear geographic pattern: Across much of the Sun Belt, retail visits tend to over-index relative to population, while under-indexing is more common along the West Coast and in parts of the Northeast.
Several structural dynamics may help explain this regional divide. Migration into Sun Belt markets has been driven in part by lower costs of living, and once there, households may have more discretionary income relative to high-cost coastal markets – supporting more frequent in-person shopping trips. At the same time, consumer behavior differs across regions: in higher-cost coastal and Northeastern markets, shoppers may be more likely to consolidate trips or shift spending online, contributing to fewer retail visits per capita.
For retailers and CRE professionals, these patterns suggest that a data-driven expansion strategy should account not just for population growth, but for how and where consumers choose to shop across regions.
Sun Belt markets may offer outsized opportunities for physical retail expansion, as higher-than-expected foot traffic signals strong in-person engagement and potential demand for additional brick-and-mortar supply. Conversely, in coastal and Northeastern markets, where visits under-index and e-commerce adoption is higher, success may depend more on experiential retail, premium formats, or omnichannel integration rather than footprint growth alone.
For more data-driven retail and CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
After failing to attract a buyer for its retail operations following its February 2026 bankruptcy filing, Eddie Bauer LLC announced it would close all of its stores – though the Eddie Bauer brand will continue to be sold online and through wholesale partners. The company has pointed to headwinds such as inflation and tariff uncertainty as major factors contributing to the chapter 11 filing.
But Eddie Bauer isn’t the only brand facing these pressures – and even in today’s challenging macroeconomic environment, some apparel brands are thriving. So what other factors likely contributed to Eddie Bauer’s decline? We dove into the data to find out.
Unsurprisingly, visits to Eddie Bauer’s store fleet had been declining for some time. In 2024, year-over-year (YoY) traffic to Eddie Bauer fell 9.7% compared to just 4.1% for sportswear and athleisure brands and 3.7% for traditional apparel. And although the brand’s YoY visit gap narrowed in 2025, it remained significantly larger than that of the broader categories.
Alongside the company’s explanations, commentators have pointed to other challenges – including rising competition from athleisure brands, limited traction in Asian markets, and a disconnect between the company’s typical older shopper base and the younger demographic it sought to attract. Observers have also noted that the brand’s shift toward outlet malls, as it closed underperforming full-price locations, blurred its premium identity and conditioned consumers to expect deep discounts.
But location analytics also suggest another way in which Eddie Bauer’s drift towards outlet malls may have undermined the company’s brick-and-mortar performance – a mismatch between Eddie Bauer’s core audience and that of the typical outlet mall shopper.
As retail destinations that typically require a drive and center on discretionary purchases, outlet malls tend to attract visitors from areas with higher median household incomes than the nationwide average. But Eddie Bauer’s audience appears to be even more affluent – suggesting that the brand’s core customers may not have been typical bargain-hunting outlet shoppers.
At the same time, Eddie Bauer’s audience skews older and less family-oriented than that of outlet malls overall. In 2025, households belonging to ESRI ArcGIS Tapestry’s “Mature and Retired Living” segment group accounted for more than half of the brand’s captured market – significantly higher than both the nationwide average and the share seen in outlet mall trade areas.
Meanwhile, other key outlet audiences – such as families – were substantially underrepresented in Eddie Bauer’s trade areas. And despite attempts to woo Gen Z consumers, the brand attracted relatively fewer “Contemporary Households,” a younger-skewing group that includes singles, couples without children, and other non-family households.
Retail turnarounds are far from impossible – especially for legacy brands with strong recognition. But in a retail environment with little room for error, success hinges on getting every detail right. As Eddie Bauer’s experience shows, that means keeping locations, target audiences, and positioning tightly aligned, to deliver a clear, compelling value proposition.
For more data-driven retail analyses, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Over the past several months since our last self-storage update, the industry has remained surprisingly resilient even as its primary fuel source – housing turnover – dried up. With Public Storage's recent acquisition of National Storage Affiliates, we dove into the data to understand what's driving the category's ongoing growth.
Coming out of the pandemic, demand for self-storage facilities surged due to increased migration trends and living space downsizing trends. According to Extra Space’s December 2025 Company Presentation, 12.6% of U.S. Households utilized self-storage facilities in 2023, up from below 10% before the pandemic. Our location intelligence reinforces this data, as monthly visitation trends to self-storage chains continued to grow in 2025, albeit at a slower pace than previous years (below).
Looking ahead to 2026, can this momentum continue? Home sales have improved modestly as interest rates inched downward, but the industry has had to pivot to generate growth the past few years. With that backdrop, we’ve identified four trends that will define the category in 2026.
With fewer people moving, operators had to cut prices to attract new tenants, with "street rates" declining in recent years. According to [many operators], "street rates" for a 10x10 unit dropped 10%–15% year-over-year in 2025. To compensate, major REITs (like Public Storage and Extra Space) raised rates on current tenants. Because these tenants were also locked into their housing situations, they proved incredibly "sticky" – accepting the price hikes rather than going through the hassle of moving their goods. Our data also shows an increase in the share of frequent visitors (2+ times a month) to self-storage units, reinforcing the idea that storage has become a more embedded, utility-like part of their daily lives – and further reducing their likelihood to churn even as rents rise.
If you can't move, you improve. As migration trends and housing turnover trends have slowed, there appears to be a shift in the rationale behind why customers were renting self-storage units. Instead of "moving storage," demand has shifted toward "lifestyle storage." As homeowners renovated to accommodate hybrid work setups or cleared out spare rooms for new family members, they needed temporary space. We see this with the percentage of remote workers visiting the largest self-storage chains, which has steadily increased the past several years. In turn, this helped put a floor under occupancy rates, which have stabilized in the low-90% range for REIT-managed storage properties and in the low-80% range across all operators.
The self-storage industry is seeing regional divergence. Sunbelt markets (Phoenix, Tampa, Atlanta), which saw massive migration and development booms during the pandemic, faced a supply hangover in 2025. With too many new facilities opening just as migration slowed, these markets saw the steepest drops in pricing compared to high-barrier markets in the Northeast.
However, this “saturation" could offer opportunities within this category. Recently, CubeSmart and CBRE Investment Management announced a $250 million joint venture to acquire assets in these very high-growth markets. Their first acquisition? A property in Phoenix – the poster child for recent oversupply. This move signals a critical shift for 2026: while development is slowing, institutional capital is waking up. Major players are using this period of soft pricing to acquire high-quality assets in the Sunbelt, betting that the long-term population growth will eventually absorb the current supply glut.
While standard drive-up units remain the bread and butter of the consumer self-storage industry, 2025 saw a continued shift toward climate-controlled solutions as a key revenue driver. New development throughout 2025 and into 2026 has skewed heavily toward 100% climate-controlled facilities. As consumers store higher-value items – such as electronics, wine, and collectibles – rather than just "garage overflow," they have proven willing to pay a higher premium for strict humidity and temperature regulation.
Simultaneously, investors tracking the self-storage sector have historically looked to industrial cold storage (refrigerated warehousing for food and pharma) as a parallel play, given both asset classes benefit from similar "last-mile" logistics tailwinds. However, the 2026 outlook for the industrial side has shifted significantly.
While the rise of online grocery and pharmaceutical delivery initially made refrigerated warehousing a defensive darling, the sector is now digesting a massive pandemic-era development boom. The U.S. industrial cold storage market is currently facing a notable supply glut. As industry leader Americold recently highlighted, "[O]ver the last few years, it's in excess of 15% of incremental capacity that's been added mainly by a lot of new market entrants whose business model is to get a little bit of scale and then try to transact."
This creates a split narrative for 2026: while consumer climate-controlled self-storage continues to capture premium yields, the industrial cold storage sector is entering a period of recalibration, forcing operators to focus on absorbing excess capacity and improving efficiency rather than breaking ground on new builds. We see this in visitation trends to cold-storage leaders Americold and Lineage, where visits continue to trend downward versus 2022 as these chains see an increase in new competitors.
As we head deeper into 2026, the industry is watching for the "thaw." If interest rates moderate and housing turnover picks up, street rates could rally quickly. But until then, the name of the game is consolidation and efficiency. Expect more REITs to follow CubeSmart’s lead, partnering with institutional capital to scoop up modern, climate-controlled assets while smaller operators struggle to compete in a low-volume environment.
For more data-driven CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
.avif)
Recent McDonald's menu additions such as the annual Shamrock Shake release and the Big Arch Burger pilot appear to have generated only a modest lift in McDonald’s foot traffic. Although visits increased 5.5% year-over-year during the week of February 16th 2026 – the week of the Shamrock Shake's launch – traffic the following week dipped -0.5%, suggesting the seasonal item generated only a short-lived bump rather than a sustained lift in visits. And the heavily publicized Big Arch generated just a 2.2% YoY traffic boost during its launch week of March 2nd to March 8th 2026 – although performance may strengthen as the item gains traction with consumers.
So while these LTOs did generate modest traffic lifts for the chain, the impact was relatively muted compared to some of last year’s stronger performers, such as McDonald’s Grinch Meals. These results may suggest that consumers are becoming increasingly selective in their spending – potentially making it more difficult for QSR chains to rely on LTOs alone to drive meaningful traffic momentum without additional value-oriented offerings.
While recent LTOs delivered only modest gains on their own, pairing LTOs with a clearer value proposition – such as the upcoming McValue 2.0 – may prove more effective, with limited-time items drawing attention and value-focused offerings encouraging repeat visits. In a price-sensitive environment, this dual strategy could drive a more sustainable traffic lift than product innovation or value promotions alone.
For more data-driven restaurant insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
.avif)
Confidence in physical retail remains solid this year. More than 55% of survey respondents said they feel confident or very confident about brick-and-mortar performance in 2026, while only around 20% expressed concern.
This sentiment aligns with the broader performance of the sector. The chart below shows two consecutive years of modest but positive retail visit growth, with year-over-year (YoY) gains hovering around 1%. While that pace reflects a relatively stable – rather than booming – environment, it reinforces the idea that physical retail continues to demonstrate resilience despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
Still, the results also highlight an element of caution. Nearly half of respondents reported feeling neutral or concerned about the coming year, suggesting that while the foundation for brick-and-mortar retail remains strong, industry leaders are watching economic conditions closely.
At the same time, most respondents believe online retail will continue to grow faster than physical stores. Nearly 70% said they expect e-commerce to outpace brick-and-mortar growth over the next twelve months.
This outlook is hardly surprising given e-commerce’s smaller starting point and the ongoing digital expansion across the retail landscape. But crucially, the expectation of stronger online growth does not translate into pessimism about stores. Nearly a third of respondents said they were actually more bullish on physical retail than on e-commerce.
These findings suggest the industry has moved beyond the once-dominant narrative that e-commerce would inevitably replace physical retail. Instead, the data reflects a growing consensus that the two channels are increasingly complementary – a story also supported by visit data, which shows e-commerce activity growing faster than brick-and-mortar retail even as both continue to expand. The rise of online retail doesn’t reduce the necessity of physical stores – it pushes retailers, brands, and landlords alike to develop clearer strategies for how online and offline channels work together to create a seamless consumer journey that leverages the unique advantages of each.
When we asked professionals about the role agentic AI could play in retail in the coming years, our expectation was a resounding vote for the lift it would provide e-commerce. And indeed, 44% of respondents said they expect agentic AI to increase the share of online retail.
However, reflecting the growing recognition that retail’s future lies in more harmonized commerce, 34% of respondents said they believe agentic AI will lift all boats – increasing incremental growth across commerce more broadly.
This is a significant signal. It reinforces the idea that innovation, whether centered on physical or digital shopping, is most powerful when it creates value across the entire ecosystem. Rather than viewing technology as a zero-sum competition between channels, many retail leaders increasingly see tools like AI as ways to strengthen the overall shopping experience. And that perspective makes it more likely that retailers and brands will evaluate new technologies through a broader lens that prioritizes integrated commerce.
Understanding why consumers visit stores remains central to shaping the next phase of brick-and-mortar retail. When survey participants were asked to identify the key drivers of in-store visits, tactile experiences topped the list, with nearly 80% of respondents pointing to the ability to see, touch, and try products as among the biggest advantages of physical retail. Another 70% highlighted the enjoyment of the in-store shopping experience itself – emphasizing another element that is difficult to replicate online.
At the same time, respondents expressed skepticism about some of the strategies often cited as drivers of store traffic. Only 12% identified services such as buy-online-pickup-in-store (BOPIS) or in-store returns as major traffic drivers. This suggests that while these services are important components of omnichannel retail – reflected, for example, in a growing share of short in-store visits across industries – they may not yet be fully integrated into shopping journeys in ways that maximize their potential.
Perhaps most surprisingly, only 30% of respondents said stores excel at inspiring shoppers to discover new products. Yet this capability may represent one of brick-and-mortar retail’s greatest untapped opportunities. Physical environments are uniquely positioned to spark discovery through merchandising, layout, and experiential elements – factors that can expand baskets and deepen customer engagement.
Industry sentiment also varies significantly across retail segments, with sector-level expectations closely tracking last year’s visit performance. When asked whether they expected various categories to grow, remain stable, or decline over the next twelve months, respondents were more likely to express confidence in continued growth or stability for segments that experienced stronger YoY traffic trends in 2025.
Wholesale clubs, which saw visits rise 5.0% YoY in 2025, topped the list – with 97% of respondents expecting growth or stability in the months ahead, followed by grocery stores at 96%. The strength of both sectors reflects broader consumer trends, including suburban living, increased home cooking, and a heightened focus on value and wellness.
Still, respondents are significantly more bullish on wholesale clubs than on traditional grocery stores: Breaking down the growth / stability outlook down further, 61% of respondents expect clubs to see continued growth, compared with about 35% for grocery stores.
One reason may be the club model’s ability to capture large shopping baskets. While consumers today are increasingly willing to visit multiple stores to find the best value or selection, club retailers excel at capturing a significant share of the shopping list once they secure the visit. Grocery stores, on the other hand, attract frequent trips – but these may include fewer items as shoppers spread spending across multiple retailers. This dynamic may push grocers to focus more heavily on specialization, differentiated offerings, and higher value per visit.
Mass merchandisers such as Walmart and Target also received strong confidence scores, reflecting Walmart’s recent performance and expectations surrounding Target’s ongoing turnaround strategy. Meanwhile, discount and dollar stores – another category that has performed well recently – were widely expected to remain stable, with fewer respondents predicting continued rapid growth for the sector in the months ahead.
There are few sectors we love talking about more than malls. Several years ago, the prevailing expectation was of a perpetual decline for the sector as a whole. But the “death of the mall” narrative has quickly diminished – or at least evolved. In our survey, 54% of respondents expected continued success for Tier 1 malls, while 30% anticipated decline across all mall types. Only 16% expected Tier 2 malls to perform well, and less than half of those believed that success would extend further down the tier ladder.
This largely aligns with visit data, with top-tier indoor malls driving significant success in recent years – a trend that will likely be further reinforced by the continued shift of key audiences toward the suburbs.
However, the potential of Tier 2 malls remains an area worth watching. A major part of the success of top malls has been a shift away from heavy concentrations of apparel and beauty toward more diverse tenant mixes, along with a stronger emphasis on elevated dining and experiences. This has been a critical element for the highest-performing malls. But in an environment where space is increasingly at a premium – and where less space is being dedicated to apparel and beauty in these top locations – a significant opportunity may emerge for Tier 2 malls to provide a stage for retailers that can no longer find a home in the most sought-after centers.
The result is an opportunity for these properties to become the “big fish” in smaller ponds, particularly if they focus on building tenant mixes that complement major regional players rather than compete with them directly. Executed well, this strategy could reduce direct competition while creating more destinations where consumers want to spend time.
Industry sentiment, especially when combined with visit data, offers a valuable snapshot of how retail is likely to evolve in the year ahead. Together, they point to a sector defined by steady physical retail performance, growing integration between online and in-store channels, optimism around technologies like AI, and shifting opportunities across segments from wholesale clubs and grocery to evolving mall formats.
For more data-driven retail insights visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Swig, the Utah-born drive-thru concept that helped popularize customizable dirty sodas, has evolved from a regional novelty into one of the fastest-growing beverage chains in the country. Known for mixing classic soft drinks with flavored syrups, creams, and fruit add-ins – alongside cookies and pretzel bites – the brand has expanded well beyond its Mountain West roots.
This expansion is fueled by significant online hype, with new locations often generating lines that wrap around the block and leave some customers waiting over an hour to try their first drink. And as the brand pushes deeper into the Sunbelt and beyond, location analytics offer a window into how this growth is impacting traffic trends and reshaping the brand's audience.
Unsurprisingly, the data shows that as Swig has expanded its footprint, it has successfully grown its overall traffic. In February 2026, visits to the chain were 137.9% higher than in February 2023 – and up 30.7% year-over-year compared to February 2025.
The data also shows the emergence of a clear seasonal pattern, with visits to Swig peaking each year in the summer as people seek out cool soda treats to beat the heat. Notably, the magnitude of the summer peak in 2025 was larger than ever before, suggesting that as the chain becomes more mainstream, its seasonal appeal may be increasing. But the dramatic increase in off-season visits as well shows that Swig is successfully building a loyal customer base that craves its offerings year-round.
This rapid growth is also leading to a meaningful broadening of Swig’s customer base. While the chain’s trade areas still remain affluent relative to the average U.S. household, the median household income (HHI) of its captured market is dropping as it reaches a more varied demographic.
And while "Wealthy Suburban Families" and "Upper Suburban Diverse Families" remain Swig’s largest audience segments, their total share of the market has edged down as engagement deepens across additional cohorts. This includes, notably, households in Blue Collar Suburbs who are now overindexed at 8.1% of Swig’s captured market, compared to a 6.9% nationwide baseline.
As Swig continues its transition from a niche favorite to a broad staple, it will inevitably face the challenges of sustained growth, such as maintaining unit-level productivity and operational consistency. However, for now, the data and the visible excitement surrounding new openings suggest that the dirty soda pioneer still has plenty of fizz left.
For more data-driven dining analyses follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
.avif)
It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
.avif)
Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
