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As value continues to dominate consumer behavior in 2025, full-service restaurants (FSRs) are finding creative ways to adapt to rising costs and shifting consumer priorities. We dove into the data to find out which FSR segments are winning this year and what’s driving these trends.
A Positive Trajectory
Despite ongoing anxiety about the economy, FSR visitation trends show that consumers continue to seek out opportunities to enjoy sit-down meals outside the home. During the first five months of 2025, casual dining chains and upscale restaurants both saw largely positive year-over-year visit growth, with only February and March registering YoY declines. And crucially, in May 2025 – a pivotal month for FSRs thanks to Mother’s Day, the industry’s busiest day of the year – both segments saw increases in total visits and average visits per location.
Still, there remain important differences between the two FSR categories. For casual dining, average visits per location grew faster than segment-wide foot traffic, reflecting a reduction in the number of locations over the past year as some brands implemented rightsizing initiatives. The positive gain in per-location gain suggests that those efforts are paying off, boosting visitation at remaining sites.
Meanwhile, for upscale dining chains, the opposite dynamic occurred – overall visit growth outpaced average visits per location. Even so, per-location visits rose YoY here as well, indicating that continued expansion is meeting robust demand.
Steakhouses Sizzle While Others Compete on Value
A closer look at trends in casual dining – by far the larger of the two FSR segments – shows significant differences among cuisine types. Much like upscale concepts, casual dining steakhouses saw total foot traffic growth rise faster than per-location visits as chains like Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse continued to grow while maintaining momentum at existing locations. Against a backdrop of soaring beef prices, the draw of affordable, high-quality steaks remains particularly strong.
American-style restaurants, for their parts – many of which have focused on rightsizing – recorded especially robust per-location visit growth, buoyed by compelling value offers from major players like Chili's and Applebee's. And Italian-themed casual dining also performed well YoY.
However, not all casual dining categories have fared as well. Breakfast-oriented chains experienced a modest YoY decline, while the Mexican segment suffered the steepest dip – likely due in part to On the Border Mexican Grill & Cantina’s recent Chapter 11 filing, which was accompanied by the closure of dozens of locations. The segment has likely also been impacted by stiff competition from popular fast-casual brands like Chipotle and Qdoba that offer tasty, quality Mexican-inspired cuisine at more of a bargain.
Shifts in Foot Traffic Share
The rising popularity of steakhouses is further underscored by shifts in casual dining visit share. Since 2019, steakhouses have seen their slice of total visits to the above categories climb from 14.0% to 18.1% in 2025, primarily at the expense of American-style concepts, whose share declined from 45.4% to 43.7% over the same period. Still, American chains have regained some ground over the past year, thanks in part to Chili’s strong comeback.
Resilience Ahead
Looking ahead, the steady increases in per-location visits for both casual and upscale dining signal the industry’s overall resilience. What lies in store for FSRs as 2025 wears on?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Shortly after Big Lots’ December 2024 decision to close all remaining stores, the company announced plans to transfer more than 200 locations to Variety Wholesalers – owner of discount banners such as Roses, Maxway, and Super Dollar. Beginning in April 2025, these Big Lot venues began to reopen, and by early June 2025, 219 stores had already resumed operations.
Big Lots’ relaunch is centered on offering shoppers deep discounts and a treasure hunting experience by sourcing closeout, overstock, and liquidation deals. The brand has also revised its product mix – leaning into apparel and electronics while reducing furniture and eliminating perishables. But how likely is this strategy to succeed, and what does it offer Variety Wholesalers?
We dove into the data to find out.
Treasure Hunting Pays Off
Between January and May 2025, leading discount and dollar chains experienced positive year-over-year (YoY) growth in both visits and average visits per location, reflecting ongoing consumer demand for value. But among these major players, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet stood out with a 14.4% YoY increase in visits and a 6.3% rise in average visits per location, even as the brand continued its store expansion. This trend underscores the strong interest in heavily discounted closeout deals, affirming Big Lots’ decision to reinvest in a liquidation-based model.
Weekends for Wandering
An analysis of Big Lots locations reopened by May 1st, 2025 reveals that customers interact with the stores like they do with other treasure-hunting venues. In May 2025, Big Lots saw more weekend and extended visits compared to the category average – mirroring the browsing-friendly vibe at Ollie’s or Five Below. By encouraging shoppers to explore, linger, and discover bargains, Big Lots is creating a retail destination likely to appeal to customers seeking both value and a bit of fun.
Variety Finds a Value Edge
Variety Wholesalers hopes to leverage the Big Lots acquisition to reach higher-income bargain hunters. And data from reopened Big Lots stores shows they attract shoppers with more money to spend than Variety Wholesalers’ existing banners – though still less than the nationwide baseline, making them especially receptive to discount offerings. In May 2025, Big Lots’ captured market median HHI stood at $60.9K – close to Ollie’s $64.6K – further underscoring the potential success of a treasure-hunt strategy for Big Lots.
Value Ahead
By returning to its deep discount roots, Big Lots appears poised to resonate with today’s value seeking customers. And with the discount segment continuing to grow, this renewed focus on bargains and treasure hunts may help the brand get back on its feet.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
In today’s challenging dining market, restaurants are battling for consumer attention through special deals, limited time offers (LTOs), and pop-culture collaborations. We dove into the data to see how several special recent events at Chipotle, IHOP, and Jack in the Box helped drive visits to these chains.
Chipotle’s Hockey Hype
Earlier this year, Chipotle leaned into the Stanley Cup excitement with an LTO designed especially for hockey fans. On Monday, April 21st, 2025 – just two days after the start of Round 1 playoffs – Chipotle offered one of its classic BOGO (buy one get one free) deals for anyone wearing a hockey jersey who dined at a participating location after 3:00 PM.
Nationwide, the promotion sparked a substantial 34.4% visit boost during the hours of the offer compared to an average Monday. But in Minneapolis-St. Paul, at the heart of the so-called “State of Hockey”, visits surged by an astonishing 77.3% – the most seen in any metro area throughout the U.S. – underscoring just how impactful relevant LTOs can be in the right market.
IHOP: Freebies for Charity
It’s no secret that everybody loves free stuff. But another recent LTO shows that people also embrace the chance to do good. On March 4th, 2025, hungry diners flocked to IHOP restaurants nationwide to snag free pancakes – no purchase required! – at participating locations. The promotion, part of the chain’s month-long charitable drive, encouraged guests to donate to Feeding America.
IHOP’s promotion spurred visit increases across the country. But it struck a particular chord in certain northeastern markets – especially in New Jersey, where a local franchise owner’s interviews about the event’s charitable aspect helped motivate a remarkable 142.5% visit spike. And on the West Coast, particularly in California, the promotion’s success was supported by the chain’s “20k for Pancake Day” event in Santa Monica, held on March 1, 2025 to raise money for Feeding America, which garnered substantial media coverage.
Jack in the Box Draws Night Owls With T-Pain Collab
But freebies aren’t the only way to drive traffic. On May 29th, 2025, Jack in the Box created plenty of buzz with the launch of its late-night T-Pain Munchie Meal, available after 9:00 PM. By the week of June 2nd, hungry night owls were flocking to Jack in the Box in droves, driving substantial increases in late-night traffic.
The late-night offer increased the proportion of nighttime visits to 25.1% during the week of June 2nd, compared to a 12-month average of 23.0%. The largest nighttime visit increase came on Thursday, June 5th, likely due to excitement for T-Pain’s June 6 debut in “Jack Zone Wars,” a custom in-game Fortnite world built specifically for this collaboration. And with T-Pain’s June 26th live-stream Fortnite event still ahead, momentum will likely continue to build as the month wears on.
LTOs That Really Deliver
These recent promotions at Chipotle, IHOP, and Jack in the Box highlight the power of well-timed, relevant LTOs to create excitement and boost traffic. By tapping into local cultural trends, charitable causes, and pop-culture collaborations, restaurants can stay top of mind – even in a crowded dining market.
For more data-driven dining insights follow The Anchor.
Darden Restaurants, which counts Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse among its portfolio of leading full-service restaurant (FSR) chains, has been on a solid growth trajectory: In March 2025, the company reported a 6.2% year-over-year (YoY) quarterly sales increase, fueled by expansion and a 0.7% bump in same-restaurant sales.
With Darden set to report again in June 2025, we dove into the data to see how the full-service restaurant (FSR) leader has performed so far this year.
Breadsticks and Bottom Lines
In Q1 2025, overall visits to Darden Restaurants’ brand portfolio outpaced average visits per location, reflecting the company’s expansion in 2024, including the acquisition of Chuy’s. Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, both of which also increased their footprints over the past year, followed similar patterns – with LongHorn Steakhouse enjoying a modest 0.5% uptick in overall foot traffic.
A Sizzling Start to 2025
A closer look at monthly visitation data reveals a more nuanced – and positive – picture.
Between January and May 2025, Darden recorded nearly uniform monthly YoY overall visit growth, with only February slipping into the red due to harsh weather and a leap-year comparison. And in April and May, average visits per location rose YoY for both the portfolio and its leading brands – a testament to Darden’s ongoing strength.
Unsurprisingly, LongHorn Steakhouse continued to outperform, drawing customers with the promise of a reasonably priced cut of quality meat – a particularly enticing value proposition as beef prices continue to rise.
Something to Write Home About
Darden’s performance on Mother’s Day, an important milestone for the company, further underscores its positive trajectory.
Olive Garden is a major Mother’s Day destination, and its performance this year didn’t disappoint. May 11th, 2025 was the Italian-American cuisine giant’s single busiest day of the past 12 months, with foot traffic soaring 152.9% compared to an average day and 101.8% compared to an average Sunday. LongHorn Steakhouse experienced a similar surge, and both chains topped their Mother’s Day traffic from last year – showcasing their ability to capitalize on this crucial occasion.
Like Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse is also a major Father’s Day draw. And given its strong performance this year, the chain will certainly be one to watch when June 15th rolls around.
Good Things Ahead
Darden’s recent results show resilience and a clear knack for meeting consumer demand, even in a challenging market. How will the company continue to fare as the year progresses?
Follow Placer.ai's data-driven dining analyses to find out.
Burger King is the latest quick-service restaurant (QSR) brand to jump on the LTO bandwagon, introducing a limited-time menu inspired by the much-anticipated How to Train Your Dragon movie. And though the film isn’t set to hit theaters until June 13th, the offering – which launched on Tuesday, May 27th – already appears to be boosting foot traffic.
On the day of the launch, visits to Burger King rose 6.2% above the chain’s year-to-date (YTD) Tuesday average. Momentum continued to build throughout the week, with May 30th seeing an 11.1% visit bump compared to an average Friday – and emerging as Burger King’s busiest day of the year so far. Year over year, too, Burger King registered increased traffic during the week of the launch – a trend that could intensify once the movie premieres.
Small-format stores are all the rage. Retailers from Macy’s to IKEA are experimenting with more compact locations to save on operating costs, expand into new markets, and offer customers a more convenient, curated shopping experience.
But just how effective is this approach? Is “going small” truly the key to brick-and-mortar retail success in 2025?
We dove into the data to find out.
Sprouting in Smaller Spaces
One chain that has successfully embraced a small-format strategy is Sprouts Farmers Market, the upscale, fresh-format grocery brand that has been steadily expanding over the past few years. Since 2022, the chain has pivoted from its traditional 30,000-32,000-square-foot stores to a more compact model of around 23,000 square feet. And location analytics suggest that this shift has been instrumental in Sprouts’ ongoing success.
In Q1 2025, the average number of visits per Sprouts location nationwide rose 4.4% year over year (YoY). But the chains’ smaller-format stores – those under 24,000 square feet – saw an even more impressive 8.8% YoY jump.
And digging into demographic data reveals that these smaller stores are helping Sprouts connect with new, urban audiences while still appealing to its core suburban customer base. Like Sprouts’ larger stores, the smaller outlets attract a higher-than-average share of “Suburban Periphery” shoppers, though less than the chain overall. But these smaller stores also draw more customers from urban areas – including shoppers from “Principal Urban Centers” that tend to be under-represented in Sprouts’ trade areas. Meanwhile, small-format Sprouts’ also attract visitors from slightly less affluent areas (though still above the nationwide median) – showing how Sprouts is expanding its audience without losing its suburban, affluent core.
Kohl’s Smaller Fit
Kohl’s is another chain demonstrating the potential of scaled-down stores. In 2022, the retailer announced plans to open about 100 smaller-format stores – around 35,000 square feet – a marked reduction from Kohl’s typical 80,000-square-foot footprint. And the success of Kohl’s 37,000 square-foot “concept” store in Tacoma, WA – opened in November 2022 as a testing ground for this format – showcases the promise of this approach.
The store offers a curated selection of active lifestyle products geared towards local preferences – as well as an improved self-pickup area. And location analytics suggest that the location’s offerings are resonating: The Tacoma store’s convenient set-up appears to help speed up shopping trips, as reflected by reduced dwell times. And over the past two quarters, YoY visits at the Tacoma Kohl’s have significantly outperformed other area locations.
Buc-ee’s: Everything’s Bigger in the Lone Star State
But going small isn’t the only recipe for retail success in 2025. Some chains are finding that bigger is better – creating gigantic stores that offer an unforgettable shopping experience, and keep customers coming back.
Convenience stores are rarely known for their size – but Buc-ee’s, the Texan favorite that holds the record for the largest c-store in the world, is the exception that proves the rule. Many of Buc-ee’s locations exceed 70,000 square feet. And over the past 12 months, Buc-ee’s has enjoyed consistent YoY visit growth, even as the broader category has languished. The massive c-store’s over-the-top offerings, from homemade fudge to Beaver Nuggets, have cemented Buc-ee’s reputation as a destination in its own right.
Scheels’ Supersized Approach to Sporting Goods
Supersized store formats have also fueled success in the recreational and sporting goods space. Dick’s House of Sport, Bass Pro Shop, and other chains have invested in expansive, experiential stores meant to serve as community hubs for sports fans and outdoor enthusiasts. And expanding Midwestern and Mountain State brand Scheels is emerging as a benchmark for this approach.
Roughly half of Scheels stores span at least 200,000 square feet, featuring attractions like Ferris wheels, massive saltwater aquariums, shooting galleries, archery lanes, and more. Unsurprisingly, these entertainment-oriented spaces draw more weekend crowds than other sporting goods stores. The chain has also grown its audience, outperforming the wider sector for YoY visit growth.
Creative Leverage is Key
The takeaway? There’s no single formula for retail success in 2025. But whether scaled-down and curated or grandiose and experiential, retail chains that intentionally and creatively leverage their physical spaces to engage audiences will continue to thrive.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
