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Momentum at the Milestone
Five Below opened its 2,000th store in July, after an H1 in which a $5 bao-bun squishy turned the value retailer into a cultural destination.
But location analytics suggest the chain's traffic story runs much deeper than one viral dumpling craze – and with summer underway, the company's visit data remains impressively firm.
Every Store Is Pulling More Weight
For much of last year, Five Below's visit growth leaned heavily on new real estate. In Q1 2025, overall visits were up 8.2% year over year while average visits per location declined 4.6% – the chain was adding stores faster than it was adding shoppers.
One year later, however, per-location traffic is catching up fast. In Q1 2026, overall visits jumped 26.2% YoY while average visits per location surged 20.4%, and in Q2 2026 the pattern held, with overall visits up 19.8% and per-location visits up 15.9%.
To some extent, the shift is due to a deliberate slowing of expansion to focus on site quality and grand-opening execution. And the strategy appears to be working, with new stores opening strong and existing stores drawing steadily bigger crowds. The company's last reported results told a similar story from the register's side of the counter: Five Below reported comparable sales growth of 22.7%, with comparable transactions up 19%.
The Dumpling Hype Cooled… But the Crowds Kept Coming
Five Below's Q1 2026 traffic surge was likely due at least in part to consumers craving the Mystery Squishy Dumpling, the blind-box collectible that CNBC crowned the heir to Labubu back in March.
But while interest in the dumplings began to fade heading into summer, the craze hasn’t run out of steam yet: Toymaker RMS recently named an exclusive licensing agent after selling more than 40 million units worldwide. Meanwhile, newer trends such as Pokémon trading card releases are stepping in to keep the registers busy – management noted that trading cards have proved an especially durable traffic driver. And the company also continues to lean into a broader “chase-and-amplify” strategy, using social listening and a deliberately wide assortment across categories like beauty, lounge and licensed exclusives to spot emerging trends early and scale into the next viral moment.
Full Steam Ahead
Viral moments come and go, but Five Below's 2026 traffic data points to something sturdier: 2,000 stores, each one busier than it was a year ago, posting double-digit visit growth every single month of 2026 so far.
For more data-driven retail analyses, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Back-to-School, Here We Go!
Every summer, many states hold sales tax holidays – in part to give parents a break on the ever-growing list of items they need to purchase at the start of the school year. And with a record $43.3 billion in back-to-school spending up for grabs this year, the stakes for capturing that traffic have never been higher.
We dove into the data to see how the timing of these holidays shapes their impact on retail traffic – and found that the same tax break can drive very different results, depending on how close it falls to the first day of school.
The Tax Holiday Retail Map
Of the twenty states offering summer sales tax holidays in 2026, six scheduled theirs across the full August 7-9 weekend: Texas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri, Virginia, and Ohio. While the specifics varied by state, all six waived sales tax on apparel, and all but Oklahoma extended the exemption to school supplies as well.
But it was the timing of these holidays relative to the start of school – more than their precise scope – that appeared to determine the size of the retail traffic boost.
In Texas, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, the impact was especially pronounced. Brick-and-mortar retail visits jumped by double digits in all three states compared with the average Friday-to-Sunday period over the prior 12 months, with Oklahoma seeing the strongest increase (13.9%). And tellingly, in each of these states, the largest school district began classes the following week – meaning the tax break landed at the exact moment back-to-school shopping urgency peaked.
Missouri, Virginia, and Ohio, on the other hand, where the school year tends to start later, saw smaller gains. Florida’s month-long tax holiday also produced a more modest weekend lift – even though most districts started school the following week – likely because shoppers had less reason to concentrate purchases into a single three-day stretch.
On average, Texas, Oklahoma, and South Carolina saw visits increase by 12.9%, compared to 9.6% for Missouri, Virginia, and Ohio – while the rest of the country saw a milder seasonal bump of 5.7%.
A Calendar Worth Watching
For retailers, shopping center operators, policymakers and other stakeholders, the lesson is that tax holidays can have the biggest impact when they align closely with major retail milestones. Combining the tax break with peak back-to-school urgency can turn a seasonal shopping bump into a much more powerful traffic driver.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Growth All Around
Costco led the pack in Q2 2026, with overall visits up 8.2% YoY and average visits per location up 6.0%. BJ's Wholesale Club, Sam's Club, and Target each grew overall visits just shy of 5.0%, while Walmart added a more modest 0.7% increase.
All five retailers saw overall visits grow faster than visits per location, pointing to the role of footprint expansion in the sector’s gains. But the size of that gap varied considerably by retailer – revealing important differences in what was driving growth.
Target Turns the Corner While Walmart's Growth Shifts Online
Target’s recovery gathered momentum through the spring, with visits improving each month before jumping 7.3% YoY in July – the retailer’s strongest performance of the year. The improvement builds on Target’s positive comparable-sales result last quarter, when comparable sales rose 5.6% on 4.4% traffic growth. And July’s spike is especially notable given that Target’s Circle deal event, held in July 2025, shifted to June this year alongside Prime Day. Fresh summer designer collaborations and a strong back-to-school push appear to have resonated strongly with shoppers.
Walmart, meanwhile, saw near-flat spring visit trends despite comparable sales growth of 4.1% last fiscal quarter – reflecting the growing contribution of digital channels to the retailer’s growth. June was Walmart’s weakest visit month of the analyzed period, even as Walmart Deals also shifted to June – suggesting that much of the promotional lift also occurred online. Still, July visits rebounded 2.4% YoY, coinciding with Walmart’s back-to-school campaign, which touted its lowest prices since 2019.
The Club Channel Keeps Compounding
Wholesale clubs outpaced superstores in every month from April through July, reflecting continued consumer demand for bulk value amid persistent macro-economic pressures. Costco's visits grew 7.6% to 9.0% every month – its clubs getting busier even as new ones opened – aligning with U.S. comps that accelerated to 10.3% in July. Sam's Club held steady at 4.5% to 5.2%, with same-store traffic driving most of the gains.
BJ's was choppier, with YoY visits swinging from 7.1% growth in May to 3.2% in June and the widest quarterly gap in the sector between overall and same-store visits. Its softer same-store performance may partly reflect the chain’s Northeast-heavy footprint, as the region has lagged this summer amid unfavorable weather and higher urban inflation than in other parts of the country.
And across all three wholesale clubs, gas remained an important visit driver. Although YoY gas station visit growth moderated from May peaks – when gas prices also reached a high point – July visits remained elevated across the board.
Different Paths to Growth
With deal weeks shifting to June, July’s broad strength points to genuine momentum across value retail – even as each chain is finding growth in a different way. The next test will be whether that strength holds as the sector heads into the crucial holiday season.
For more data-driven retail insights visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Summer RTO Momentum
The return-to-office (RTO) push kept gathering steam this summer. On July 1st, California’s four-day-a-week in-office mandate for state employees came into effect, while EY became one of the latest major private employers to tighten its own in-person policy.
But July also brought significant commuting disruptions, from extreme weather early in the month to the FIFA World Cup hosted in major markets nationwide.
So where did office attendance land amid these competing forces? We dove into the data to find out.
Office Visits Hold Near Their Post-Pandemic High
Nationwide office visits in July 2026 were 23.6% below July 2019 and just 0.7% below July 2025 (all three months had the same number of working days). Visits also increased month over month in July, exceeding June 2026 in absolute terms. But because June had one fewer working day, it ranked slightly higher on a per-working-day basis. By that measure, July 2026 was the third-busiest in-office month since March 2020, behind June 2026 and July 2025.
Miami, New York and Dallas Lead the Pack
Miami (-0.1%), New York (-6.2%), and Dallas (-12.3%) led the rankings relative to 2019 in July 2026, with Miami and Dallas also posting year-over-year (YoY) gains. New York saw a modest 2.3% YoY decline, which may have been exacerbated by multiple heat emergencies. And Atlanta also remained among the most recovered markets despite a 4.4% YoY decline, likely influenced by World Cup-related road closures and calls for employers to embrace WFH.
Los Angeles, which has ranked at or near the top of the YoY standings for several months, continued to lead on YoY growth, with office visits up 5.7%. While some of the city’s recent gains may still reflect easier comparisons, its sustained strength increasingly points to genuine momentum – likely supported by stricter RTO policies at entertainment giants such as NBCUniversal. San Francisco’s AI-driven resurgence, meanwhile, helped keep the city in the middle of the rankings, even as visits remained 33.6% below 2019 levels. In both California hubs, the state-worker RTO mandate that took effect July 1 may be reinforcing the broader return-to-office trend.
Washington, D.C. and Denver, for their part, posted the largest post-pandemic office-visit gaps, with D.C.’s lag likely tied partly to a contracting job market and Denver’s to its remote-friendly work culture.
More Mandates and Less Leverage Ahead
June may have set 2026’s high-water mark so far, but conditions are in place for office attendance to climb again this fall. Five-day mandates from companies like Fidelity are set to take effect in September, while July’s surprisingly soft jobs report may further tilt workplace leverage toward employers.
Will office attendance reach new post-pandemic highs as summer disruptions fade?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven RTO analyses to find out.
Retail Wins the Race
Halfway through the summer, brick-and-mortar retail visits continue to outpace dining, though restaurant traffic is beginning to recover.
We analyzed the data to understand what is driving these broader trends and where dining's bright spots may be emerging.
A Gap – But a Narrowing One
Overall retail visits rose 1.7% year over year (YoY) in July 2026, while dining visits declined 1.6%. This continues a pattern seen earlier in the year, when the two categories began to diverge as gas prices increased.
Restaurant meals are the classic first cut when budgets tighten – and as consumers tightened their belts, some of those visits likely shifted toward retail through additional food-at-home trips to grocery stores, superstores, and wholesale clubs.
Still, dining's improving trajectory since May suggests that the pressure may be starting to ease as consumers adjust to higher gas prices and summer vacations get underway.
Dining Finds Its Footing Out West; Retail Strength Falters in the East
Regional data also reveals several markets where dining outperformed in July – alongside a handful where retail visits were slightly softer.
Dining's pockets of strength were concentrated in the West, led by California, where visits rose 1.2% YoY, likely supported by the region's lower-than-average urban inflation rate. Although California’s gas prices remain the highest in the nation, they have increased less sharply on a proportional basis this year – while the state’s leading rate of EV adoption may have further blunted the shock. The FIFA World Cup likely added an additional tailwind, with Los Angeles and Bay Area bar and pub visits up more than 15% YoY during the tournament. And Utah and Idaho likely benefited from some of the strongest population growth in the country.
Retail visits, meanwhile, rose throughout most of the country, with just a few Midwestern, Northeastern, and Mid-Atlantic states seeing flat to slightly negative trends – and New York trailing the pack at -0.9% YoY. Higher-than-average June inflation, particularly in the Northeast, coupled with an unusual heat wave during the week of July 4th, may have contributed to the softness.
Fast-Casual and Full-Service Rise YoY
Dining also saw some bright spots at the category level. While QSR visits fell 3.4% YoY in July, fast-casual chains extended their ongoing winning streak and full-service restaurant traffic turned positive.
QSR’s core customers are dining out less than they did a year ago, while fast-casual and full-service concepts are benefiting from a widening perceived-value gap. For now, at least, dining’s recovery appears to be led by consumers at the top of the income spectrum.
Looking Ahead
The retail-dining divide remained intact in July – but with restaurant traffic improving steadily since May and higher-income dining segments already back in positive territory, the gap may keep narrowing in the second half of 2026. Will dining pull even with retail as the summer winds down?
For more retail and dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
A Blockbuster for the Biggest Screen
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey opened on July 17th to a $124.5 million domestic debut – with IMAX 70mm showtimes sold out weeks in advance and resale tickets commanding more than $1,000 in New York. So what does the premium-format craze look like on the ground? We dove into the data to find out.
Premium Screens Pull Ahead
The Odyssey's opening weekend was a boon for the whole category. On July 17th and 18th, visits to movie theaters nationwide ran 22.5% above the spring-summer weekend baseline, making it one of the strongest showings of the year. But IMAX 70mm venues were in a different league entirely, with visits 60.5% above baseline.
The gap likely reflects the format's scarcity. Just 41 theaters worldwide can screen the film in IMAX 70mm, and IMAX's record-breaking $52.0 million global opening suggests that audiences went out of their way to experience the movie as Nolan intended.
The boost also extended to the second weekend, when the wider category settled back to 10.6% above average, while IMAX 70mm venues remained 54.7% elevated. And with AMC reporting that most of its IMAX 70mm showtimes are sold out into September, the visit boost could carry deep into the summer.
While The Odyssey is the year's most dramatic example of the format effect, it isn't the only one. When Project Hail Mary – another IMAX-lensed release – opened on March 20th, weekend visits to 70mm venues outpaced the broader circuit. By contrast, regular theaters carried the day during other major release weekends, including May 29th and 30th, when A24's Backrooms opened to a studio-record $81.4 million while The Mandalorian and Grogu entered its second weekend.
Going the Distance
Audiences also went out of their way for The Odyssey in the most literal sense. IMAX 70mm venues usually attract moviegoers from a wider radius than the average theater – with so few locations nationwide, they function as regional draws rather than neighborhood haunts.
But The Odyssey stretched that reach dramatically. Over the film's first two weekends, the share of IMAX 70mm visitors traveling 10+ miles jumped to 48.4% and 52.0%, respectively, while the broader category ticked up only modestly.
The Bottom Line
The premium-format boost is title-specific – it appears when the event film of the moment is also a format film. But when the two align, the effect is powerful: For a small fleet of theaters, the right release can transform an ordinary weekend into a destination event. With 70mm showtimes selling out into September, will The Odyssey keep those screens packed through the end of summer? If so, the film's run may give exhibitors their strongest argument yet for investing in premium formats.
For more data-driven entertainment insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
