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After reaching new heights in October 2024, how did the office recovery fare in November? We dove into the data to find out.
Two Steps Forward, One Step Back…
In November 2024, visits to office buildings nationwide were 62.4% of what they were in November 2019, down from 66.7% in November 2023. This marks the most substantial drop in office foot traffic since January 2024 – and a sharp decline from October 2024.
But though significant, November’s downturn is likely a reflection of this year’s record-breaking Thanksgiving travel rather than of any real office recovery slowdown. Millions of Americans took to the skies and roads to spend the holiday with loved ones. And with remote work making it easier than ever before for professionals to plug in from virtually anywhere, many likely extended their trips without taking extra days off – leading to fewer office visits in the days leading up to the holiday.
Miami and New York Continue to Lead in Post-Pandemic Recovery
Taking a look at regional trends, Miami continued to outshine other cities in November 2024, with visits at 84.0% of pre-pandemic levels – perhaps due in part to strict return-to-office (RTO) policies implemented by major players within the city’s growing tech and finance sector. New York came in second with recovery at 81.9%, while San Francisco continued to lag behind other major cities. But with major projects like the September 2024 grand opening of the revamped Transamerica Pyramid set to revitalize the city’s Financial District, more accelerated recovery may be ahead for this West Coast hub.
Miami and San Francisco Buck the (YoY) Trend
Indeed, San Francisco was among November 2024’s regional leaders for year over year (YoY) office visit growth. Nationwide, office building foot traffic was down 6.5% YoY. But in San Francisco, visits increased 1.6% – likely bolstered by recent RTO mandates from major local employers like Salesforce. The city’s temperate climate may also have played a role in encouraging residents to stay local for the holidays. Miami, too – a popular holiday destination in its own right – saw visits increase 1.7% YoY.
Denver, meanwhile, experienced its fourth snowiest November on record, which may have contributed to a larger portion of its workforce embracing remote work during the month – and an 11.3% YoY visit decline. And in New York, extended “workcations” by remote-capable finance employees, as well as potential disruptions in public transit and increased congestion during the holiday season, may have fueled a larger-than-average drop. Given the Big Apple’s strong overall recovery trajectory, we will likely see a rebound to more robust YoY growth by January, when the holiday season winds down.
Looking Ahead
While Thanksgiving travel created a temporary headwind for office recovery, cities like Miami and San Francisco demonstrate that the story is far from uniform. And looking ahead to the coming months, the office recovery still appears poised to continue apace.
For more data-driven office recovery analyses, follow Placer.ai.
Hot on the heels of last year’s Barbenheimer phenomenon, 2024 brought us “Glicked”— the powerhouse pairing of Gladiator II and Wicked that lit up movie theaters across the country. How did these box office juggernauts – followed just a few days later by Disney’s much-anticipated release of Moana 2 – impact movie theater foot traffic during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend?
We dove into the data to find out.
A Box Office Triple Whammy
On its premiere day (Friday, November 22nd, 2024) “Glicked” drew a 69.2% increase in movie theater visits compared to the daily average between June 1, 2023 and December 1, 2024. By Saturday, November 23rd, foot traffic surged by a dramatic 147.3%, solidifying the weekend as one of the most memorable of the year. And on Wednesday, November 27th, the release of Moana 2 drove an impressive 142.6% foot traffic increase.
But the real box office magic came on Black Friday (November 29th), when the combined power of Glicked, Moana 2, and the holiday shopping frenzy fueled an epic 263.2% surge in theater visits – making November 29th the third busiest for theaters since June 1st 2023. Foot traffic to movie theaters on this year’s Black Friday even outpaced the unforgettable levels seen on Barbenheimer Saturday (July 22nd, 2023), when visits soared to 241.0% above the daily average.
Not Just for Retail Therapy
Black Friday is always a busy time for movie theaters. In 2019, movie theater visits on Black Friday (November 29th, 2019) were up 80.2% compared to an average 2019 Friday – while in 2022 and 2023 (November 25th, 2022 and November 24th, 2023), they were up 40.8% and 39.4% compared to an average Friday for each of those years.
And in 2024, Black Friday cinematic foot traffic surged past previous years’ benchmarks – surpassing even pre-pandemic levels. On November 29th, 2024, visits to movie theaters were 13.1% higher than on Black Friday in 2019 – and the effect lasted through the weekend, pushing visits up 9.5% and 27.8% on the Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving compared to the equivalent period of 2019.
Time Slots That Stole the Show
But the Black Friday foot traffic surge wasn’t distributed equally throughout the day. Unsurprisingly given the holiday weekend, morning and early afternoon screenings saw the most impressive visit increases – with foot traffic up an incredible 524.0% between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM compared to an average year-to-date (YTD) Friday. Afternoons (2:00 PM–5:00 PM) weren’t far behind, with visits climbing 389.9%. But impressively, even though Friday evenings are typically busy times for movie theaters year round, visits on the evening of Black Friday surged by more than 200% between 5:00 PM and 11:00 PM.
Metro Madness: Which Cities Led the Pack?
Black Friday’s box office boost also wasn’t evenly spread across the map. Leading the charge was the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington area, where theater visits soared by an astonishing 373.5% compared to its 2024 year-to-date average. Close on its heels were Washington, D.C. (322.8%) and New York (321.9%), proving that East Coast audiences were all in for some big-screen magic.
Interestingly, Black Friday was less resonant on the West Coast, particularly in California, where the cultural pull of the big shopping day seems to be less strong. Los Angeles, for example, saw a more modest boost in visits, reflecting the region’s typically lighter Black Friday enthusiasm.
The Power of a Big-Screen Spectacle
Black Friday, it turns out, isn’t just about shopping – it also has the power to supercharge movie theater foot traffic. And while Gladiator II, Wicked, and Moana 2 all drew crowds on their opening days, the strategic timing of their pre-holiday releases drove a Black Friday visit surge for the ages. Whether driven by the thrill of a new hit or the magic of the holiday season, people are returning to theaters – and in record numbers.
For more data-driven consumer behavior insights, visit placer.ai.
Black Friday is the biggest retail milestone of the year – drawing millions of shoppers to stores nationwide. And even as e-commerce claims a growing piece of the holiday shopping pie, consumers flock to brick-and-mortar retailers to browse the aisles, check out new products, and enjoy the festive holiday atmosphere.
But how did brick-and-mortar retailers fare during this year’s Black Friday? Did the high-stakes shopping period deliver?
Brick-and-Mortar Retail Visits Up 0.9% YoY
Black Friday has evolved into a multi-day shopping bonanza. Early holiday sales draw crowds well before Thanksgiving, and major markdowns continue into the weekend and through Cyber Monday. Still, foot traffic data shows that the traditional milestone hasn’t lost its touch. On November 29th, 2024 visits to retailers nationwide surged by 40.4% compared to an average Friday this year – up slightly from 39.8% in 2023.
Year over year (YoY), retail foot traffic increased 0.9% on Black Friday this year – a modest uptick, but one which highlights the resilience of physical retail in an increasingly digital world. Most of the days during the week leading up to Black Friday also saw modest YoY visit increases, as shoppers got a head start on their bargain hunting. And the Saturday and Sunday following the milestone saw more significant YoY visit increases of 2.0% and 6.2%, respectively – perhaps driven in part by customers picking up orders placed online during Black Friday.
Regional Factors at Play
Digging deeper into the data for different areas of the country shows that the resonance of the milestone varies significantly by region. In Delaware and New Hampshire, visits to retailers on November 29th were up a whopping 75.9% and 72.8%, respectively, compared to an average Friday this year. And in much of the Midwest – including North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Kansas – retail foot traffic surged by more than 50.0%. By contrast, Western states such as California (26.0%), Wyoming (24.1%), New Mexico (24.5%), Montana (31.3%), Colorado (32.6%), Nevada (33.1%), and Utah (33.6%) experienced much more modest visit boosts.
The differences in statewide Black Friday performance may reflect more general regional Black Friday patterns. Though the Mountain states saw smaller Black Friday visit spikes than other areas of the country, retail visits in the region on November 29th, 2024 were up 4.1% YoY – perhaps a sign that the milestone is growing in local importance. The Eastern and Western South Central regions saw YoY visit increases of 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively – while the South Atlantic region saw a 1.5% increase. Meanwhile, some of the areas where Black Friday is most resonant – including the Midwest – saw visits remain flat or fall slightly below 2023 levels.
No Room for FOMO
Holiday shopping is about more than just making transactions – consumers eagerly leave the comfort of their homes to embrace the thrill of the treasure hunt, explore new products firsthand, and enjoy the experience of shopping with friends. And foot traffic data shows that Black Friday retains plenty of in-person appeal.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is the grocery industry’s Black Friday. As shoppers flock to stores for turkeys, cranberry sauce, and other holiday essentials, the day delivers impressive visit spikes for grocery, superstore, and dollar stores alike. But how did this year’s Turkey Wednesday measure up – and which brands capitalized most successfully on this critical shopping event?
We dove into the data to find out.
Gobble Till You Wobble
People love to shop – but they also love to procrastinate, descending on stores just before major holidays to grab last-minute supplies. So far in 2024, March 30th (Easter Eve), May 11th (the day before Mother's Day), and November 27th (Turkey Wednesday) have been the busiest days of the year for grocery stores, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But while the first two milestones drew bigger crowds to superstores and discount & dollar stores – both natural destinations for gift buyers and food shoppers alike – Turkey Wednesday was the grocery sector’s time to shine.
On November 27th, 2024, grocery stores saw visits surge by 81.0% compared to a year-to-date (YTD) daily average, capturing over half (51.2%) of visits across grocery, superstore, and discount chains. (During the rest of the year, grocery stores account for just 46.6% of the three industries’ overall visit pie.) Still, superstores and discount & dollar stores also attracted plenty of pre-Thanksgiving shoppers with enticing holiday promotions of their own. And despite reports of consumer cut-backs ahead of the holiday, this year’s Turkey Wednesday performance was on par with last year’s, with grocery visits on November 27th 2024 up 0.7% relative to November 22nd 2023 (last year’s Turkey Wednesday).
See You in Mississippi – and Minnesota
Diving into statewide grocery store data shows that like Black Friday, Turkey Wednesday’s appeal isn’t evenly distributed across the United States. Though grocery visits spiked nationwide on November 27th, 2024, some regions saw bigger foot traffic peaks than others.
In the Pacific Northwest, parts of New England, and some Mountain states, for example, grocery visits increased by less than 70.0% compared to a YTD daily average. But in parts of the Midwest and South, visits spiked by over 90.0%. Mississippi and Minnesota in particular stood out as major Turkey Wednesday winners, with visits up 96.8% and 96.5%, respectively. These regional differences highlight Turkey Wednesday’s special resonance in areas where holiday shopping traditions like Black Friday also dominate.
Traditional Grocery Chains Claim the Spotlight
Which grocery chains benefit the most from Turkey Wednesday? A look at individual brands shows that traditional grocery stores – think Kroger, Albertsons, and Safeway – generally see bigger pre-Thanksgiving visit boosts than limited-assortment value chains like Aldi and Trader Joe’s. And in keeping with the regional trends noted above, some of the best-performing chains are midwestern favorites like Schnucks and Albertsons’ Jewel-Osco, which saw Turkey Wednesday foot traffic surges this year of 103.9% and 92.6%, respectively.
But numerous other chains also saw major Turkey-fueled visit increases on November 27th – including Food 4 Less, the Kroger-owned regional value chain with locations in both the Midwest and California, and East Coast brands ShopRite and Wegmans. When it comes to last-minute holiday shopping, it seems, there is plenty of room for multiple brands to thrive.
Budget Brands Get in the Game
Though value-oriented grocery chains typically see smaller visit spikes on Turkey Wednesday, many budget brands are steadily growing their pre-holiday audiences.
Grocery Outlet Bargain Market and Aldi saw foot traffic rise by 13.5% and 11.2%, respectively, on November 27th, 2024 compared to last year’s Turkey Wednesday. (Both chains also saw substantial increases in the average number of visits to each of their individual locations – 9.7% and 8.4%, respectively – proving that the increase isn’t solely a result of fleet expansion.) Meanwhile, traditional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger’s Ralphs, Ahold Delhaize’s Hannaford, and Albertsons’ Jewel Osco, also recorded year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic gains, highlighting robust performance across much of the sector.
No Time to Go Cold Turkey
Groceries are a crucial part of the Thanksgiving holiday – but liquor, it seems, may be even more indispensable. On November 27th, 2024, visits to liquor stores surged even higher than visits to grocery stores – generating a remarkable 186.4% visit spike, as consumers stocked up on spirits to ease the mood at stressful family gatherings or to show gratitude to hard-working hosts. Like for grocery stores, Turkey Wednesday was liquor stores’ busiest day of the year so far – though if last year is any indication, the run-up to Christmas will likely generate even more impressive traffic bumps.
Plenty of Gratitude to Go Around
Turkey Wednesday 2024 reaffirmed the key role played by traditional grocery stores in the run-up to Thanksgiving. And though supermarkets and liquor stores stole the spotlight, superstores and discount & dollar stores also experienced significant visit upticks – and value chains are steadily growing their pre-holiday audiences. How will these categories continue to fare throughout the rest of the holiday season?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analysis to find out.
How did leading eatertainment chains Dave & Buster’s and Chuck E. Cheese perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Dave & Buster’s Sees Lower But More Extended Summer Visit Peak
Since January 2024, Dave & Buster’s has enjoyed mainly positive YoY visit growth, fueled in part by the eatertainment leader’s continued expansion. In Q2 and Q3 2024, visits to the chain were up 3.2% and 7.3%, respectively. And though YoY foot traffic to the chain slowed down in Q3 2024, a look at Dave & Buster’s monthly visit patterns shows that this may have been due in part to a summer visit peak that was slightly lower – but more extended – than that seen last year.
In 2023, Dave & Buster’s experienced three distinct visit spikes – in March, July, and December – with the restaurant’s 14.6% July visit boost (compared to a monthly average for Jan. ‘23 - Oct. ‘24) preceded by a relatively quiet June (+2.0%). But this year, summer foot traffic began to trend upwards earlier, with both June and July seeing substantial upticks – 13.6% and 13.4%, respectively. (June is in Q2 and so this part of the uptick would not have been included in Q3 foot traffic numbers). And though September, usually a down period for Dave & Buster’s, saw a modest drop in visitors compared to 2023, the chain’s March peak was higher than last year’s.
Weekday Visits on an Upswing
Digging even deeper into the data shows that even as YoY quarterly visits to Dave & Buster’s remained flat in Q3 2024, mid-week visits to the chain continued to climb. Dave & Buster’s has been investing heavily in mid-week promotions meant to drive traffic during quieter periods, and its efforts are clearly paying off. On Wednesdays, Dave & Buster’s offers a 50% discount on games – and the average number of Wednesday visits to the chain were up 7.0% YoY. Thursdays, too, saw an 11.3% YoY foot traffic increase, likely fueled by diners drawn to Thursday specials as the most intensive part of the work week wound down. (In Q3 2024, July 4th fell on a Thursday, which also generated a significant visit bump – but even when discounting the week of the holiday, Thursday visits were up 6.4% on average.)
Against the backdrop of solid seasonal peaks and impressive mid-week visitation trends, Dave & Buster’s appears poised to enjoy a robust December – another important seasonal milestone for the restaurant. And keep an eye out for the week after Christmas, traditionally Dave & Buster’s busiest week of the year: Last year, the week starting December 25th drove a 65.0% visit spike to the chain compared to a 2023 weekly average.
Summer Success at Chuck E. Cheese
Speaking of promotions – Chuck E. Cheese is another eatertainment leader that has been finding success by leaning into special deals, making it easier for price-conscious consumers to treat their kids to pizza and fun.
Following a lackluster start to the year, YoY visits to Chuck E. Cheese began trending upwards in May 2024 and have remained elevated ever since. Between June and August 2024, foot traffic to Chuck E. Cheese was up between 20.1% and 26.8% compared to the equivalent period of 2023. And though the pace of visit growth began to taper in September as kids went back to school, visits remained substantially higher than last year.
Chuck it Up to Loyalty
What’s behind Chuck E. Cheese’s summer flourishing? A look at shifts in loyalty trends at the chain suggests that the success of this year’s Summer Fun Pass may be a big part of the story.
On average, the share of loyal visitors to Chuck E. Cheese – i.e. those frequenting the restaurant at least twice in a month – tends to range between five and seven percent. Last summer, this percentage increased to 8.1%, as parents sought out indoor activities to keep kids occupied when school was out. But this year’s summer loyalty spike – just over 12.0% in both June and July – was significantly higher.
Though Chuck E. Cheese also offered a Summer Fun Pass last year, this year’s deal provided even greater value – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. And the promotion was such a smashing success that Chuck E. Cheese has launched a new unlimited-visit pass meant to make frequent trips to the chain more affordable for families all year round. As the kids’ eatertainment leader continues to revamp its offerings – remodeling locations and adding new activities like indoor trampolines – Chuck E. Cheese appears poised to keep drawing the crowds.
Winning With Fun
Today’s cautious consumers are always on the lookout for ways to save – and eatertainment chains are paying attention. Will Dave & Buster’s post-Christmas visit spike outperform last year’s? And will Chuck E. Cheese’s new unlimited play model continue to drive traffic throughout Q4?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven analyses to find out.
The past several years have been a boom period for affordable indulgences – with consumers tightening their purse strings and finding inexpensive ways to treat themselves. Against this backdrop, discount specialty retailers Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet have been growing their footprints – and their audiences. But have the two chains reached their growth ceilings? How did they fare in Q3 2024 – and what can they expect this holiday season?
We dove into the data to find out.
Growing Audiences
Five Below opened a record 205 new stores last year, leaning into growing consumer demand for low-cost toys, decor, and other indulgences. And though the chain announced plans to moderate fleet growth following a below-target Q2 2024, visit data shows that overall, the chain remains well-positioned for continued success. In Q3 2024, Five Below’s growing footprint fueled a 13.8% chain-wide year-over-year (YoY) visit boost. Though the average number of visits to each individual Five Below location remained slightly below 2023 levels, the chain’s visit-per-location gap narrowed to 1.6% from 4.3% in Q2. And in some key growth markets, Five Below saw significant increases in both YoY visits and visits per location: California, one of Five Below’s biggest regional markets and the focus of a major expansion push this year, saw visits per location grow 4.4% amidst a 21.6% overall visit increase.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet is another value-focused specialty retailer that has benefited from consumer trading down in recent years. And foot traffic data highlights the success of Ollie’s ongoing expansion: In Q3 2024, foot traffic to Ollie’s increased 7.5% YoY, while the average number of visits to each Ollie’s location also increased slightly by 0.9%. Though this represents a smaller visit-per-location increase than that seen in Q2, Ollie’s ability to maintain strong per-location visit levels while increasing its store count shows that the chain’s offerings are still meeting robust demand. And Ollie’s shows no sign of slowing down – snapping up former Big Lots store leases and plotting westward expansion.
What About the Holidays?
Five Below and Ollie’s are both popular holiday shopping destinations. But what can the two retailers expect this year?
Visit data shows that Five Below and Ollies experience holiday milestones somewhat differently. Ollie’s, with its broad selection of deeply discounted high-ticket items, sees a slightly bigger Black Friday spike than Five Below: On November 24th, 2023, visits to Ollie’s surged by 222.9% compared to a 2023 daily average, higher than Five Below’s none-too-shabby 204.1%.
Meanwhile, the run-up to Christmas is is Five Below’s time to shine – with visits slowly increasing throughout December before reaching a crescendo on Super Saturday. In 2023, Five Below’s busiest day of the year was December 23rd, as customers flocked to the chain to pick up stocking stuffers, festive decor, and other inexpensive holiday items. Ollie’s, on the other hand, saw a more moderate 171.7% Super Saturday visit increase. As Five Below continues to expand its pricier “Five Beyond” offerings, Black Friday may take on greater importance for the retailer in coming years.
But while Ollie’s visit peaks were more subdued than those of Five Below throughout most of the holiday season, the chain’s treasure hunt vibe consistently drew longer visitor dwell times. On Black Friday last year, 26.5% of visitors to Ollie’s remained in-store for more than 45 minutes, compared to just 18.3% at Five Below. And despite Ollie’s significantly smaller Super Saturday crowds, customers spent substantially more time browsing its aisles to snag the perfect bargain find.
Looking Ahead
Five Below and Ollie’s both appear poised to enjoy a busy holiday season. Will the retailers deliver?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
