.svg)
In late 2022, we suggested that fitness clubs in a post-pandemic environment were better positioned to withstand a slower macroeconomic climate than in the past. This was due to lower monthly fee business models, increased workout frequency among consumers, a shift toward younger members, and reduced seasonality. With Planet Fitness reporting its Q3 2024 results this week and ten months of visitation data available for 2024, we decided to revisit that thesis—especially in light of the company’s decision to raise the monthly price of its Classic Card from $10 to $15 in late June.
In the third quarter, Planet Fitness posted systemwide same-club sales growth of 4.3% (4.5% growth in franchisee clubs and 3.4% growth in corporate-owned clubs). Approximately 50% of the Q3 2024 comp increase was driven by net member growth, with the remaining balance attributed to rate increases. Our data indicates that the decline in visitors has been relatively modest since the Classic Card price hike. Management corroborated this, noting they “expected a slight decline in membership in Q3 2024, which was more than offset by the rate improvement on the Classic Card and a higher Black Card mix.”
During the quarter, 63.1% of Planet Fitness members were Black Card members (paying $25 per month), up from 62.1% in the same period last year. Management noted that new members are increasingly opting for the higher-priced Black Card membership, likely due to the added value of extra amenities, including access to all club locations, unlimited guest privileges, unlimited use of massage chairs and tanning beds, and discounts on cooler drinks, compared to the base membership.
Planet Fitness’ visit-per-location trends further support our thesis that fitness clubs are more resilient to macroeconomic pressures than they were pre-pandemic. In 2019, Planet Fitness averaged nearly 92,000 visits per location in the first quarter, dropping to 68,000 in the fourth quarter—a 25% decrease. This year, Planet Fitness again began with 92,000 visits per location in the first quarter and is projected to close the year with 76,000-78,000 visits per location. This would represent a year-end decrease in the mid-teens, indicating a more stable membership base and lower churn rates than in past years.
Fitness clubs still face challenges in today’s consumer environment. For instance, Equinox-owned Blink Fitness filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, citing pandemic-related deferred rent payments and other factors in its filing. (On a related note, Planet Fitness reportedly made a bid for Blink Fitness this week.) Nonetheless, Planet Fitness' resilience underscores that fitness club unit economics have evolved over the past several years, potentially making them better equipped to handle diverse consumer environments.
While consumer confidence appears optimistic heading into the holidays, and businesses are feeling more assured now that the election is over, thrifting continues to benefit from tailwinds driven by last year's inflationary pressures, the shift toward sustainability, and Gen Z’s desire for unique items.
We analyzed year-over-year traffic for well-established chains like Goodwill and Salvation Army, as well as for smaller chains like Buffalo Exchange and Crossroads Trading Co. Among these, Savers Thrift Store has experienced the highest growth rate in recent months, with Goodwill also showing consistent increases compared to last year.
The thrift store footprint is quite strong nationwide, with a concentration of stores in the eastern half of the country and along the West Coast.
Thrifting is no longer just for lower-income households. In a sign of its upmarket appeal, over 1 in 10 of thrift store captured trade areas are now the "Upper Suburban Diverse Families" segment, and another 1 in 10 are from "Wealthy Suburban Families" according to PersonaLive customer segments. The chart below filters for visitors with a dwell time of at least 10 minutes, indicating that these segments aren’t merely dropping off donations—they’re sticking around to treasure hunt. The thrill of finding a hidden gem has been widely shared on social media platforms like TikTok, where one lucky shopper recently discovered a $6,000 couture wedding dress for the unbelievable price of $25 at Goodwill.
While Goodwill is undoubtedly the largest player in this field, with roughly ten times the visits of its nearest competitor, a substantial share of visits also goes to Plato’s Closet (with over 400 stores tracked by Placer), Salvation Army Stores (400+ tracked by Placer), and Savers Thrift Stores (100+ tracked by Placer). Interestingly, although Savers has just a quarter of the number of stores, its yearly visits nearly match those of Plato’s Closet and Salvation Army Stores during certain months of the year.
Plato’s Closet sees a notable spike in late July and early August, aligning with back-to-school shopping season. With its focus on teens and young adults and an emphasis on popular and fast-fashion brands, it’s no surprise that this chain resonates strongly with its youthful audience.
This past season, one of the major trends has been a love for all things '90s. Popular items include handkerchief hems, baby tees, crop tops, straight jeans, mom jeans, flared jeans (essentially anything but skinny jeans), and, of course, the essential graphic tee. Thrifters are on the hunt for that perfect vintage piece—something unique to wear to a concert or party and, most importantly, to showcase on social media.
Fashion is cyclical, and often, if you hold onto something long enough, it just might come back into style. Hoarders can rejoice, as new generations are now seeking out biker boots, pedal pushers, Fendi baguettes, and satin slip dresses. Today’s teens are also drawn to brands their parents might have worn, like surfer favorites Stussy, Roxy, and O’Neill. Miu Miu, a current favorite in the fashion world despite a slight slowdown in luxury, even sent board shorts down their runway. Miu Miu has consistently been on-trend over the past few years, from micro miniskirts to last month’s playful twist on athleisure with foot warmers and leg warmers.
Other notable ‘90s throwbacks include Hypercolor shirts—T-shirts that change color with body heat, like when a handprint is left behind. For the colder months, surf fashion is evolving into styles suited for cozy bonfire nights at the beach. "Shackets" (shirt jackets) in soft flannels and plaids are trending, with stores like Faherty and Marine Layer offering pieces reminiscent of the fashion seen in The O.C.
From a retail perspective, popular '90s and 2000s brands like Mango and True Religion are making a strong return to brick-and-mortar. Mango, a Spanish fast-fashion brand similar to Zara, first entered the U.S. in the 2000s but later withdrew in 2015. Now, it’s back with a U.S.-focused strategy, opening a flagship store at 711 Fifth Avenue in New York—formerly home to iconic brands like NBC, Columbia Pictures, and Coca-Cola. Mango plans to have over 40 stores in the U.S. by the end of 2024 and 500 global stores by 2026.
In the ‘90s, pop stars like Britney Spears and Christina Aguilera made low-rise jeans with the iconic True Religion horseshoe logo a staple. Now, True Religion has returned, with Megan Thee Stallion as a spokesperson. The brand saw strong performance in spring and summer, likely boosted by back-to-school shopping in August. Although year-over-year traffic dipped slightly in September and October, we anticipate a rise in traffic with the upcoming holiday season.
Every year towards the end of October, consumers head to the shops for costumes, spooky yard decorations, candy and Halloween supplies. At the same time, many national dining chains roll out Halloween-themed limited time offers (LTOs) to lure in revelers. So what was this year’s Halloween impact on retail and dining visits? We dove into the data to find out.
Halloween may not be Black Friday, but the ghostly holiday drives significant dining and retail visit spikes of its own. Comparing daily visit patterns during the week of Halloween to previous weeks’ averages reveals Halloween’s varied impact on the different brick-and-mortar sectors.
For most retail sectors – including grocery stores, superstores, discount & dollar stores, and hobbies, gift & craft stores – holiday visits peaked on October 30th, as consumers got their Halloween supplies before the holiday. Hobbies, gift & craft stores saw the biggest visit increases, with traffic on Monday, October 28th already up 20.7% compared to the average for the previous four Mondays, as patrons sought out the perfect costume piece or yard decoration. Meanwhile, liquor stores – where visits also increased the day before Halloween – got an even bigger boost on October 31st, likely thanks to party hosts and guests grabbing last minute refreshments ahead of the night’s festivities.
Unlike in the retail space, where visits increased prior to the holiday, the Halloween-driven dining visit spike was confined to October 31st. Dining visits on Halloween were up 5.4% compared to the previous four Thursdays’ average – impressive for a category not traditionally associated with Halloween spending. This spike was likely fueled by the many Halloween-themed LTOs across the category.
Indeed, many of the major dining chains that saw double-digit visit spikes on October 31st offered Halloween-related promotions. Insomnia Cookies gave away cookies and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts offered free donuts to customers who came in wearing costumes – and visits to the two chains jumped 60.4% and 45.4%, respectively, compared to the average of the previous four Thursdays. And the promise of discounts was almost as alluring as the promise of free stuff – Chipotle offered a deeply discounted entree to any Chipotle Rewards member coming in costume, leading to a 41.5% boost in Halloween foot traffic.
Full-service restaurants also got in on the Halloween action. Denny’s customers who dined on-site donning a costume received free Halloween pancakes, helping drive a 20.5% increase in Thursday visits on October 31st. IHOP, which offered a free “Scary Face Pancake” for kids 12 and under with the purchase of an adult entree, saw its visits rise 15.5% compared to its recent Thursday average. And Applebee’s “Dollar Zombie” cocktail – available throughout the month of October – may have contributed to the 14.4% Halloween visit increase from customers looking to consume the themed drink during the holiday.
Halloween prep often requires a trip to the store – so unlike dining chains, where traffic peaked on Halloween itself, most retail sectors received the largest holiday-driven boost on October 30th. Visits to Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Costco Wholesale were up on Wednesday, October 30th compared to a recent Wednesday average – but by October 31st, foot traffic was mostly back to normal (although Walmart visits were still slightly elevated).
Meanwhile, discount & dollar leaders Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar experienced foot traffic jumps on both October 30th and October 31st – with the Halloween spikes at Dollar General and Family Dollar even surpassing the pre-Halloween boosts at those retailers. These visitation patterns indicate that consumers likely visit both superstores and dollar stores for pre-Holiday prep but are more likely to head to discount & dollar chains for last minute Halloween purchases.
While superstores and discount & dollar stores receive a significant share of Halloween-driven retail foot traffic, the biggest beneficiaries of the season appear to have been party supply stores – with Party City in the lead. Visits to the retailer began steadily increasing week-over-week in the beginning of September, with Wednesday, October 30th seeing a whopping 252.2% increase in visits compared to the average on the previous four Wednesdays.
Party City’s Halloween success indicates that, when it comes to special occasions, specialized retailers still play an important role in the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
Halloween brought consumers out to stores and restaurants, highlighting an appetite for celebrating special occasions which may bode well for the upcoming holiday season. How will the rest of Q4’s retail milestones perform?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
.avif)
Last year’s holiday shopping season was an impactful one, with many categories seeing record-breaking sales and visits. And perhaps no category benefits from Q4 peaks quite like department stores, which see major foot traffic spikes on Black Friday and in the run-up to Christmas.
So with Q4 2024 seemingly primed to be another strong season, we took a look at department store visitation patterns this year and during previous holiday seasons to see what might lie ahead for the category in the coming weeks.
The holiday shopping calendar often begins as early as October, as consumers start preparing for Halloween before shifting their focus to Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas. This time of year tends to be one of the busiest for many retailers, as it encompasses a variety of shopping needs, including gifts and seasonal celebrations.
And one retail category that sees major visit increases every holiday season is department stores. Chains like Nordstrom, Macy’s, and Bloomingdale’s experience substantial spikes in visits throughout Q4 as shoppers flock to their locations to take advantage of sales and find gifts for their loved ones.
And though consumers’ holiday shopping behavior varies somewhat each year, analyzing weekly fluctuations in visits to department stores reveals some predictable patterns. Every year, visits to department stores see modest increases during major retail events like Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day, and back-to-school shopping season – before surging during the week of Black Friday (week 47) and then again in the run-up to Christmas. During the week of last year’s Black Friday, for example, department store visits soared 65.2% above the 2023 weekly average – only to go even higher (122.8%) during the week before Christmas (week 51).
Nordstrom is one department store that seems poised to enjoy a particularly robust holiday shopping season this year. The chain, which operates more than 90 of its namesake stores, also has an off-price banner – Nordstrom Rack – with over 250 locations. And both brands have enjoyed stable visit growth since April 2024 – with quarterly YoY visits to Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack elevated by 1.4% and 9.6%, respectively, in Q2 2024, and by 1.4% and 5.0%, respectively, in Q3 2024. By contrast, the wider department store category sustained consistent YoY visit gaps.
Drilling down deeper into weekly visit data shows that this positive trend continued into October. And while Nordstrom Rack – which is firmly in expansion mode – outperformed Nordstrom’s traditional stores through September, this trend reversed slightly in October, as the holiday season grew closer. With Black Friday just around the corner, both chains seem well positioned to continue driving visits to their respective stores.
Macy’s Inc., for its part, is doubling down on its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround strategy involving a significant trimming of the company’s traditional Macy’s portfolio and the addition of several Bloomingdale’s and small-format stores. In August, Macy’s announced its intention to increase to 55 the number of Macy’s locations slated for closure by the end of 2024. And though the plan’s implementation is still in early stages, foot traffic data suggests that both Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s are holding their own.
In Q2 and Q3 2024, Macy’s sustained minor YoY visit gaps – 2.8% and 3.5%, respectively – slightly outperforming the broader category. Meanwhile, Macy’s high-end Bloomingdale’s brand saw a YoY visit uptick of 1.9% in Q2, while Q3 visits remained flat compared to 2023. And given the huge monthly visit spikes both chains experience each year in November and December, Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s appear well positioned to once again experience a surge in foot traffic as the holiday season begins.
If previous years are any indication, department stores should be getting ready for significant foot traffic increases as the holidays quickly approach. Will improving consumer sentiment and cooling inflation lead to visit increases at department stores, or will consumers decide to take it easy this year?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail insights.
The holiday season is right around the corner, bringing with it some of the most impactful shopping periods of the year. We took a closer look at visit performance across major wholesale clubs and superstores – Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale, and Costco – to see what their 2024 performance and past holiday season visit patterns can tell us about what to expect this Q4.
Warehouse clubs have been thriving in 2024, buoyed by price-conscious consumers eager to load up on inexpensive essentials. In Q3, quarterly visits to retail giants Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale rose 5.2% and 5.9%, respectively. And Costco, holding its place ahead of the pack, saw a foot traffic increase of 7.2%. For all three chains, the robust visit growth continued into October, with visits up 3.6% to 5.9% YoY.
Meanwhile, Target and Walmart saw respective quarterly YoY foot traffic upticks of 1.0% and 0.9% in Q3 2024. In August – the height of the back-to-school shopping season – visits to both chains increased just over 3.0% YoY. And though foot traffic to the superstore behemoths slowed in September as the summer rush abated, Target saw its visit gap narrow once again in October, while Walmart experienced a slight 0.2% increase.
Warehouse retailers have been the clear foot traffic winners this year – but digging deeper into historical data suggests that it is Target that is primed to experience the busiest holiday season of the analyzed chains.
During the week of November 20th, 2023 – the week of Turkey Wednesday and Black Friday – visits to Target soared 18.9% compared to the chain’s 2023 weekly visit average, marking the biggest pre-Thanksgiving visit spike of any of the analyzed chains.
But Target’s real visit surge came during the week of December 18th – the week before Christmas, including the all-important Super Saturday – when visits to Target surged 87.3% above the chain’s 2023 weekly visit average. This was more than double the relative increase experienced by Walmart (39.6%), Sam’s Club (32.8%), BJ’s Wholesale (32.3%), or Costco (34.1%). And with recent visits to Target on par with – or slightly above – last year’s levels, the retail giant is likely poised to win the holidays once again.
Overall, Super Saturday was a bigger milestone for Target last year than Black Friday. (On the former, visits surged 166.1% compared to a 2023 daily average, while on the latter they rose 135.3%.) But digging deeper into the data reveals significant regional differences in Target’s performance on the two major shopping days.
In some parts of the country – including several midwestern, south central, and nearby states where Black Friday has special resonance – the day after Thanksgiving drew bigger visit spikes than Super Saturday. Some markets in particular saw outsized Black Friday visit surges, including West Virginia (348.6%), Kentucky (232.3%), and Indiana (227.4%). Other markets, such as California (74.6%) and Colorado (89.5%), experienced more moderate – though still substantial – Black Friday jumps.
In contrast, visits to Target on Super Saturday were more evenly distributed across the country, with several western and sunbelt states recording substantial visit increases – including New Mexico, which saw a 200.6% jump in visits to Target on December 23, 2023 compared to the 2023 daily visit average.
With solid Q3s under their belts, Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club are all well-positioned to enjoy a robust holiday season this year. Will the retail giants deliver?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
Across segments, retail and dining expansions converge on a common set of priorities, including identifying markets with strong demand, ensuring alignment with target audiences, and leveraging local consumer behavior to drive synergy. Using AI-powered location intelligence, we analyzed five expanding brands and segments to uncover the core principles driving successful site selection.
Nationwide visits to coffee chains are up in 2026, with established brands and newcomers alike seeing their traffic increase as consumer headwinds lead some to shift their discretionary spend towards more affordable indulgences. But past visit growth does not necessarily indicate future opportunity – it may instead signal market saturation. Relying solely on overall visit trends to guide expansion could lead chains into highly competitive markets where existing supply already meets demand.
For example, analyzing traffic trends in 10 major metro areas where coffee visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2026 reveals significant gaps between overall traffic trends and per-location demand. In some CBSAs, overall traffic growth significantly outpaced per-location traffic trends – suggesting that supply is already meeting (or exceeding) demand and limiting room for new coffee locations despite overall category growth. But in other metro areas, where overall visit growth appears smaller, per-location traffic is actually booming – indicating that the underlying demand is resilient enough to support additional coffee concepts.
These patterns highlight the importance of looking beyond topline growth to identify where true whitespace still exists.
Effective site selection matches both regional and local demographics to a brand’s target customer, supporting performance and reinforcing positioning. But even in well-aligned metros, results depend on site-level precision – locations where the trade area visitor profile most closely reflects the brand’s core audience are best positioned to drive incremental upside.
An analysis of Alo locations in the DC area suggests that the company is adopting this strategy. Within the already high-income metro area of Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, individual Alo Yoga stores are placed in centers that draw even more affluent visitors – maximizing the revenue potential of each location.
In fact, Alo's newest stores in the metro area – One Loudoun and Bethesda Row – drive traffic from households with higher median incomes than even the established area locations. This signals a clear focus on premium retail corridors and affluent consumer segments, which reinforces the brand’s positioning while capturing higher-spending customers at the site level.
Beyond driving traffic potential and demographic alignment, site selection should also ensure that a brand’s identity and operating model are well matched to the visitation patterns of prospective locations. Barnes & Noble offers a clear example. The company’s ongoing resurgence has relied in part on repositioning itself as a local cultural and social hub, with a stronger emphasis on local curation and community-driven events.
And analyzing Barnes & Noble’s 2026 openings shows a clear tilt toward centers with a higher share of local traffic than the chain average – supporting its shift away from a purely transactional retail model toward a more community-centric experience built around local curation, events, and repeat visitation. By prioritizing locally driven centers, the company’s site selection strategy not only captures relevant traffic but also reinforces its broader repositioning as a neighborhood-oriented brand.
Effective site selection recognizes that proximity to competitors can function as a demand driver, amplifying traffic rather than diluting it.
In practice, this often takes the form of clustering – deliberately locating near similar or complementary concepts to capture shared demand. Shake Shack provides a clear example. Analyzing the chain's store fleet shows that many locations sit near other QSR and fast-casual concepts, creating opportunities to capture dining-based traffic. At the same time, strong cross-visitation patterns indicate that these co-located brands share a common customer base, positioning the brand closer to consumers who are already likely to visit. And, at least for Shake Shack, this strategy appears to be working – traffic to the chain increased 19.9% YoY in Q1 2026.
Incorporating trade area analysis into site selection can also help determine whether a new location will generate new traffic or risk cannibalizing existing demand. Aldi, a rapidly expanding grocery chain, offers a relevant example.
The company opened a fourth Las Vegas store on S Decatur Blvd in October 2025, positioned between existing locations on W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd, approximately eight miles from each. And analyzing the core trade area of each of the four Las Vegas locations indicated limited visitor cannibalization over the last six months, despite the stores’ close proximity. Only 6.2% and 7.6% of the S Decatur Blvd store’s trade area overlapped with the W Craig Rd and S Rainbow Blvd stores’ trade areas, respectively.
These findings show that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to store spacing – it varies by brand, category, and market. Analyzing a company’s existing store network alongside competitor density and overall demand can help determine how closely locations can be placed without hurting performance. In many cases – especially in high-frequency categories like grocery – markets can support stores that are closer together than expected.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
.avif)
It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
