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Hilton Hotels & Resorts and InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) are two of the biggest names in lodging. The two companies operate a wide range of hotel brands, ranging from luxury chains to budget options. And falling in the middle of this range are two midscale hotel chains: TRU by Hilton and avid Hotels, operated by IHG.
What can foot traffic and demographic data reveal about the preferences of visitors to these chains? We took a closer look.
TRU by Hilton and avid Hotels both opened their first locations in 2017, with the goal of offering travelers modern and comfortable accommodations while eschewing the amenities typically associated with more luxurious hotel categories. By streamlining services, these hotels can appeal to a diverse range of travelers while maintaining a lower price point.
The two hotel chains have expanded since their openings, with TRU operating 279 locations and avid operating 70 nationwide as of May 2024. And this expansion seems to be paying off for both brands, helping drive YoY monthly visit increases. Since June 2023, visits to the two chains have been consistently elevated YoY, save for a few minor visit lags at TRU.
Hilton and IHG both hope to continue expanding their midscale hotel concepts, with projects in the pipeline for 2024 and beyond. And diving into the demographics can help the hotels identify their strengths and plan out marketing strategies more effectively.
Analyzing the psychographic makeup of TRU and avid’s trade areas by layering Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset onto the two chains’ captured markets reveals that despite their budget offerings, both hotels appeal to economically diverse audiences.
Between June 2023 and May 2024, TRU and avid both attracted visitors from areas with higher-than-average shares of both “Ultra Wealthy Families” and “Blue Collar Suburbs.” The chains’ ability to appeal to both groups shows that their no-frills offerings are appreciated not just by the most price-conscious customers, but also by those with more room in their budgets to splurge.
Still, TRU drew a greater share of visitors over the analyzed period from areas over-indexed for “Ultra Wealthy Families'' – while avid drew slightly more customers from areas over-indexed for “Blue Collar Suburbs.” And diving deeper into the demographic and psychographic characteristics of TRU’s and avid’s captured markets shows that though both chains have broad appeal, there are some differences between their customer bases.
The median household income (HHI) of TRU’s captured market stood at $79.4K during the analyzed period – above the nationwide median – while that of avid remained slightly below it. And while avid’s captured market included a higher-than-average share of “Young Urban Singles” (also from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset), TRU was more likely to attract “Suburban Boomers.” So while TRU draws a wealthier and more settled clientele, avid tends to attract younger, less established guests.
These differences serve as a reminder of the differences that exist even within similar accommodation categories, and may help the two chains when deciding how to market to their respective customer bases.
Both TRU and avid seem similar enough on paper – two midscale hotel chains, geared towards a traveler that prioritizes value and convenience. And while both chains attract a wide range of households to their venues, TRU tends to see a more affluent, established visitor, while avid seems to attract more guests who are starting out in life.
For more data-driven travel & leisure insights, visit Placer.ai.
With sales exceeding $148 billion in 2023, The Kroger Co. is a leading player in the grocery store space. In addition to its flagship eponymous brand, the company owns a variety of regional banners, including (among others) Fred Meyer, Harris Teeter, Ralphs, Smith’s Food and Drug, Fry’s Food Stores, King Soopers, and Food 4 Less.
We dove into the data to see how key Kroger chains are faring in 2024 – and to explore the different audiences served by the company’s varied portfolio.
With some 1255 locations across 19 states, Kroger is The Kroger Co.’s largest grocery banner by far. And between January and May 2024, visits to the chain accounted for 47.6% of overall foot traffic to the company’s grocery portfolio. The remaining 52.4% of visits went to The Kroger Co.’s smaller banners – with Fred Meyer, Ralphs, and Harris Teeter leading the charge.
And drilling down deeper into the regional distribution of the company’s various grocery banners shows that each chain serves a different area of the country.
Kroger’s eponymous banner holds sway throughout much of the Midwest and South – while Harris Teeter serves shoppers in Maryland, Florida, and the Carolinas. Meanwhile, Fred Meyer, Smith’s, Ralphs, Fry’s, and King Soopers dominate the Western United States. And throughout some parts of the Midwest, Kroger draws consumers with a variety of smaller banners.
Like that of Albertsons, Kroger Co.’s strategy of acquiring and maintaining regional brands has allowed the company to expand its footprint across the country – while catering to the needs and preferences of local shoppers. Indeed, Kroger’s footprint now extends across three of the four U.S. regions – the West, South, and Midwest – with only the Northeast lacking a Kroger Co. presence.
A look at recent visitation trends for Kroger Co.’s largest banners – i.e. those with at least 100 locations – shows that all experienced positive YoY visit growth in Q1 2024. The most impressive foot traffic bumps were seen by Mountain region banners Smith’s and King Soopers, followed by value-oriented Food 4 Less, and the South Atlantic-focused Harris Teeter.
On a monthly basis, too, The Kroger Co.’s major Banners saw nearly uniform YoY visit growth between January and May 2024.
Analyzing demographic differences among the trade areas of Kroger’s different chains shows how the company leverages its portfolio of banners to serve distinct customer bases.
Virginia, for example, is served by two Kroger Co. banners – Kroger and Harris Teeter. And while the former draws shoppers from areas with a median HHI below the statewide baseline of $87.2K, the latter – with somewhat more upscale, pricier offerings – attracts a much more affluent audience. Similar differences can be observed in Wisconsin – where Pick ‘n Save and Metro Market serve different demographics.
By offering a diverse spectrum of shopping experiences, The Kroger Co. strategically positions itself to maximize market penetration and appeal to a broad range of consumers.
The Kroger Co. entered 2024 with a bang. With its extensive reach and adaptive approach, can the grocery leader maintain its positive momentum throughout the rest of the year?
Visit our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
Post-March Madness, many of the NCAA women’s basketball players went on to the WNBA. Caitlin Clark to the Indiana Fever, Cameron Brink to the LA Sparks, and Angel Reese to the Chicago Sky were some of the most hotly anticipated draft picks. The newfound appetite for the WNBA is real. Take Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis as an example. Just comparing the time period of April 30-May 31, 2023 vs April 30-May 31, 2024, there is a stark contrast in the number of attendees to home games. In just five games, attendance to this year’s Fever games has already surpassed that of the entire 2023 season.
The trade area draw is also something to note as the area from which 70% of visits originated practically doubled from May 2023 (blue) to May 2024 (red), showing the magnetic effect a star player can have.
This heightened interest is great news for concepts like The Sports Bra, a bar and restaurant based in Portland, Oregon. It’s 100% dedicated to women’s sports so you can be sure to catch your favorite female player on the screen. Since opening in the spring of 2022, it’s had steady business, and odds are with all the women’s sports to watch, there should be a busy summer ahead.
In addition, might the added exposure bring new fans to brands such as Wilson Sporting Goods, which signed Caitlin Clark? This familiar brand opened its first West Coast brick and mortar store on Santa Monica’s Third Street Promenade just about a year ago. Meanwhile, Angel Reese has signed on some big brands such as Reebok, Raising Cane’s and AirBnB. Former Stanford Cardinal and now LA Sparks superstar Cameron Brink is one of the faces of New Balance, and has starred in an ad with Shohei Otani and Coco Gauff.
Over Memorial Day Weekend, Wayfair opened its highly anticipated addition to the world of physical retail, something we've been waiting for since the company's large-format store plan first came into view in early 2022. Technically, Wayfair’s new mega-store, sized at 150,000 square feet in Wilmette, Illinois, isn’t its first foray into brick-and-mortar, but it is certainly its splashiest. In an era when many home furnishing retailers are going small, early indications from Placer show that betting big has yielded success in attracting visitors, but questions about the longevity of success and health of the broader home industry remain.
This week, we had a chance to visit the store ourselves, and it's immediately evident how much attention was put into the store. Most visitors enter through the "Market Square", which feature unique housewares, locally-relevant products, and seasonal merchandise. Above the Market Square is a large video board that showcases certain products and other digital media assets which help set the tone for the shopping experience.
According to the retailer, its first namesake location brings a new shopping experience to consumers and features its first food service offering, The Porch (below).
The store also features an expanded selection and one-on-one personal design services, which can be seen in store layout below. The new location clearly took learnings from other Wayfair-owned brands like Joss & Main or All Modern, each of which have also opened physical stores.
The Wilmette large format store opened on May 23, just in time for Memorial Day Weekend foot traffic, and the location greatly benefitted from the timing. According to Placer’s early reads from May 18-June 1, 2024, Wayfair’s visits accounted for almost half of the visits to Edens Plaza (below), the shopping center in which it’s located. Beyond that, during its opening weekend from May 23-27, it drove 60% of visits to the plaza. The shopping center is located right off the Edens expressway, and the store is visible from the road, which helping to draw the attention of travelers.
Wayfair’s debut is a clear victory for the shopping center, with the store’s first few weeks helping to attract new visitors to the center. Comparing the two week period before the store opening to the two weeks of its opening using Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive segments, the percentage of visits coming from trade areas from Ultra Wealthy Families--the typical center visitors--actually decreased from 45% to 32%. However, there was a large increase in the percentage of visits by Educated Urbanites and Young Professionals. Buzzworthy openings help to revitalize shopping centers and Wayfair’s initial success will hopefully provide some meaningful shifts in visitors beyond the first few weeks.
Home furnishing retailers, in particular, have made experiences and expanded service offerings a cornerstone of their strategies to foster a captive consumer audience and increase dwell time, and hopefully conversion. Looking at local home furnishing experiential retail locations in the Metro Chicago area, Wayfair’s opening splash is even more apparent with its two story, expansive footprint. Compared to the closest IKEA store (Schaumburg), Wayfair Wilmette's visits were 12% higher during its initial two-week period and saw 19% more visits than IKEA during the highest traffic day of opening weekend. The trade area of the two retailers, even in the first two weeks, starts to tell the story of the visiting consumer; Wayfair drove more visits despite having a smaller trade area than IKEA and more overlapping territory, and primarily pulled its visitors from the northern Chicago suburbs.
Wayfair’s early indicators of traffic highlight a combination of the right concept, the right consumer, and the right location. It will be fascinating to watch the long-term visit trends for Wayfair, especially compared to other large-scale regional furniture retailers. Despite many home furnishing retailers looking to smaller formats for growth, if Wayfair’s location sustains its traffic growth, larger-format stores may become an attractive solution for shopping centers to revitalize themselves.
Mixing high-low fashion means pairing expensive designer items with more budget-friendly ones, think H&M jeans with a tweed Chanel jacket. This concept has been around for a while, and though one may originally have had to frequent different stores to attain this, with the way investment firms are snapping up different brands, shopping “High-Low” may become a more commonplace occurrence. Regent acquired Escada in 2019 and Club Monaco in 2021. While one might not normally think of those brands in the same sentence, if you’re walking on Beverly Drive and enticed by the Club Monaco outfits, walk in a bit deeper and before you know it, you will be encountering designer pantsuits and evening gowns by Escada.
Since the space is all one, it’s hard to decipher who’s going in for Club Monaco versus for Escada. Technically, Escada has its own entrance on Brighton Way. Either way, overall traffic for this space is up in the last few months, so perhaps this is simply the evolution of real estate as owners become creative with how they use their spaces and the brands within. As for us shoppers, we love to be surprised and delighted, so for sure finding an unexpected brand as you meander around is always welcome.
Over the past few months, we’ve noted how consumers–particularly from lower-income trade areas–have started to migrate from QSR to value-grocers, dollar stores, and convenience stores. Against that backdrop, we wanted to examine visitation trends for QSR chains in the state of California, where a $20 per hour minimum wage law was put in place on April 1 for employees of fast-food chains with more than 60 locations nationwide (with some exemptions for smaller stores at grocery stores, airports, and entertainment venues). This represented a 25% increase from the previous minimum wage for fast-food employees of $16 per hour (which remains the state’s minimum wage for other categories except for workers in healthcare facilities, which also saw minimum wage increased to $20 per hour).
As a result of the minimum wage increase, most chains have raised prices in the region anywhere from the mid-single digits to the midteens. We compared year-over-year visit trends for QSR chains nationwide and California, and it’s clear that the menu price increase is having an impact. During February-March 2024 (we’ve excluded January due to inclement weather across much of the country), year-over-year QSR visit trends in the state of California had been running slightly ahead of national averages (below). However, this abruptly shifted when the minimum wage increase went into effect, with the nationwide visit trend year-over-year exceeding the state average seven of the eight weeks during the April-May 2024 timeframe.
We also see the impact at the chain level. Below, we’ve looked at year-over-year visitation trends for McDonald’s nationwide and in California (where about 9% of its restaurants are located) from February through May. Again, we see a situation where McDonald’s California was seeing roughly the same year-over-year visit trends as its national average during February-March but underperformed by almost 250 basis points after the minimum wage increase went into effect.
Our data indicates that QSR burger chains have generally been the hardest hit by the California increase in minimum wage and subsequent increase in menu prices. In addition to McDonald’s, we see that other large QSR burger chains in the state also underperformed their national average following the minimum wage increase. Chipotle–which raised menu prices by 6%-7% in California to help offset the minimum wage increase–also saw year-over-year visit trends in California underperform its national average in April and May.
It’s early, but we’re starting to see the ripple effect of the minimum wage increase across the broader restaurant industry. First, we’ve started to see some operators close locations in the state, especially chains that were already facing financial difficulties. Earlier this week, Rubio’s Coastal Grill shut down almost 50 locations in California and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing “significant increases to the minimum wage in California” as a reason for closing the restaurants. Second, the minimum wage hike and subsequent increase in QSR menu prices may be benefitting casual dining chains (many of which were already paying above the new minimum wages for many employees). Below, we see that Darden’s Olive Garden concept and Brinker International’s Chili’s concept in California have outperformed their national averages with respect to year-over-year visit trends starting in April (below). Finally, the minimum wage increase could make it more costly to do business across other retail and restaurant categories, something we called out in our recap of 99 Cents Only going out of business.
As we discussed following this year’s National Restaurant Association show, casual dining has been making a comeback the past several months, with many chains accentuating value proposition through promotions. Chili’s has seen visitation trends outperform casual-dining category averages by a significant amount the past several weeks (below) through its value messaging, while Buffalo Wild Wings All-You-Can Eat wings promotions on Monday and Wednesdays starting in mid-May has been one of the more successful promotions that we’ve seen in the full-service restaurant category in some time. However, with several QSR chains starting to get more promotional ahead of McDonald’s planned $5 value menu promotion at the end of the month, it’s clear that QSR chains are looking to also emphasize value in the coming months, even while facing higher labor costs.
1. Salt Lake City: Home-Centric Growth and Sustained Consumer Strength
Salt Lake City continues to outperform thanks to a young, fast-growing population and a strong homeownership culture. Retailers in home goods, grocery, and improvement categories are seeing significantly higher YoY foot traffic than the national average.
2. Reno: A Tourism Hub Evolving Beyond Gaming
The share of "Singles & Starters" among Reno's visitor base continues to climb – and this generational diversification is transforming the city into a year-round destination for dining, shopping, and entertainment while fueling traffic gains across Reno-area shopping centers.
3. Indianapolis: Family Affordability Fuels Retail Momentum
With strong employment, affordable housing, and a favorable cost-of-living ratio, discretionary retail and family-friendly dining concepts are particularly well positioned to thrive in this growing midwestern market.
4. Raleigh: Young, High-Earning Consumers Drive Mixed-Use Expansion
Raleigh’s relatively low median age and strong labor market are fueling demand for premium dining and retail, leading to foot traffic gains for upscale mixed-use developments.
5. Tampa: Urban Revival Powers Dining and Retail Gains
In-migration of Gen Z and millennial workers, together with rising office attendance, has boosted commuter and visitor traffic across Tampa’s urban core – helping Tampa's dining concepts grow faster than the national average and underscoring Tampa’s role as a Southeastern consumer hotspot.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
