Strategic Insights From the Report: 

1. Mall traffic is proving resilient across formats.

Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.

2. Performance is increasingly defined by the convenience–experience divide.

Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.

3. Indoor malls are strengthening their role as experiential “third places.”

Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips. 

4. Open-air centers are winning the weekly routine.

A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.

5. Outlet malls are at a crossroads.

As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.

6. Strategic clarity will determine the winners.

The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.

Here to Stay

Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.

What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?

Traffic Resilience

Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.

Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.

The Convenience / Experience Divide

With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.

In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.

Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose. 

Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly. 

Indoor Malls Lean Into the Hangout Economy

Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.

Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.

Indoor Mall Dwell Times on the Rise

As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.  

Open-Air Centers Anchor the Weekly Routine

If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.

Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.

Outlet Malls at a Crossroads

Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.

Going the Distance?

And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.

Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.

One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants. 

Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own. 

Strategic Clarity for the Win

As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.

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Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.

Return to Office Patterns 

Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.

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Miami Continued Leading RTO in 2025; San Francisco Led the Year-over-Year Office Recovery

Major Insights:

• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks. 

• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.

Key Takeaways for CRE Professionals: 

• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.

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Median Household Income in Market Correlates With Office Recovery

Major Insights:

• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.

• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.

Key Takeaway for CRE Professionals: 

• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.

Shopping Center Patterns

Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.

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Shopping Center Visits Increased in 2025

Major Insights:

• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.

• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest. 

Key Takeaway for CRE Professionals: 

• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.

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Convenience-Based Performance Pulling Ahead

Major Insights: 

• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.

• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.

Key Takeaway for CRE Professionals: 

• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic. 

Migration Patterns 

Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.

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Northern Planes, Southeast Lead State-Level Migration Growth

Major Insights: 

• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.

• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.

Key Takeaway for CRE Professionals: 

• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.

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Florida Metros Magnet For Domestic Migration

Major Insights: 

• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.

• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.

Key Takeaway for CRE Professionals: 

• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.

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Key Takeaways

1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.

2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.

3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.

4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.

5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.

What is Driving Grocery Growth in 2026?

While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.

More Trips, More Formats, and a Shift Toward Mission-Driven Shopping

Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket. 

Scale Captures Demand – But Fragmented Trips Leave Room to Grow

The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.

The Core Drivers of Grocery Growth in 2026

Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.

1. Expanded Grocery Supply Is Fueling Growth While Traditional Grocery Stores Hold Their Lead 

Expanded Grocery Access Is Increasing Overall Category Engagement

One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.

Traditional Grocery Stores Maintain a Stable Share of Visits Despite Growing Competition

Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.

Mass Merchants Face Share Pressure as One-Stop Competition Expands

Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping. 

2. Low and Medium-Income Households Driving Larger Visit Gains 

Grocery Growth Is Shifting Toward Lower- and Middle-Income Trade Areas

While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail. 

Higher Food Costs Likely Driving More Frequent, Budget-Conscious Trips

For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.

Necessity-Driven Shopping Is Powering Grocery Visit Growth

This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.

3. Rise in Short Grocery Trips Driving Offline Grocery Gains

More Frequent, Shorter Grocery Trips

Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022. 

Omnichannel Grocery Shopping Fueling Short Trips to Physical Stores 

This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product. 

Grocery Shoppers Are Splitting Trips Across Multiple Retailers

Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.

Different Trip Types, One Outcome: Continued Store Traffic Growth

So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends. 

4. Consolidation as a Growth Driver 

Large Chains Continue to Pull Ahead in Visit Share

As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.

Scale Enables Broader Assortment, Stronger Value, and Better Execution

This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.

Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.

5. Competition for "Share of List" Growing Grocery Visit Pie 

Both Long and Short Trips Are Driving Grocery Traffic Growth

In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.

Large and Small Chains Win by Competing for Different Shopping Missions

Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey. 

What These Trends Mean for Grocery Growth in 2026

As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.

Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.