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Weekly visits to Placer’s Industrial Manufacturing Index remained below 2024 levels throughout September and into early October. Although trends began to stabilize during the week of September 22nd, activity continued to lag behind last year’s benchmarks – signaling a sustained year-over-year (YoY) slowdown.
These findings align broadly with the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which edged up to 49.1% in September from 48.7% in August – signaling contraction, but at a potentially moderating pace. (Any value below 50 indicates a decline.) Still, sentiment indicators remain mixed, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI easing from 53.0 in August to 52.0 in September – reflecting slower growth but still remaining in expansionary territory.
As shown in the chart above, the slowdown was particularly acute in the auto sector, where U.S. sales forecasts have been revised downward and production figures indicate declining output. The sharp divergence from the overall index beginning the week of September 15th likely also reflects industry-wide disruption following last month’s devastating fire at the Novelis plant in New York, which reverberated throughout the industry.
Beyond short-term disruptions like the Novelis fire and ongoing tariff uncertainty, structural forces tied to AI and automation may also be contributing to the industrial deceleration. Many plants are adopting AI-enabled predictive maintenance, robotics, and remote monitoring, which reduce the need for certain categories of employees. And in autos especially, the shift to EV production and AI-driven retooling may already be visible in lower employee presence.
For more data-driven manufacturing insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
August’s drop in office foot traffic left many wondering – had the return-to-office movement finally hit a wall, or was it just summer taking its usual toll?
We analyzed the latest location analytics to find out.
In September 2025, a wave of new RTO mandates took effect nationwide, with companies from Intel to Toyota requiring employees to spend at least four days per week in the office. And following August’s sharp retreat, September delivered a decisive rebound: Office visits were just 26.3% below 2019 levels – a clear improvement from August and essentially tied with June’s performance.
This suggests that August’s dip was seasonal rather than structural – a reflection of flexible post-pandemic work habits during vacation-heavy periods. As fall routines took hold, RTO momentum strengthened once again, underscoring the nonlinear yet sustained nature of office recovery progress.
To be sure, some of September’s upswing can be chalked up to calendar math – the month had 21 working days, compared to 20 in both September 2024 and 2019. But that extra day alone doesn’t explain the full rebound.
Even when adjusting for working days, September 2025 ranked as the third busiest in-office month since COVID, just behind June and July 2025.
Miami and New York City – two markets where in-person work has firmly reestablished itself as the norm – continued to lead the office recovery in September. In Miami, ongoing corporate migration is reinforcing an “office-first” culture, while in New York, a growing wave of finance-sector mandates is accelerating the push back to the office.
And several other markets also saw significant improvement. Dallas and Atlanta outperformed the nationwide average with office visit gaps just 15.4% and 22.9% below September 2019 levels, respectively. Meanwhile, San Francisco – though still trailing other major markets – closed its post-pandemic gap to 40.2%.
In addition, San Francisco recorded the largest year-over-year gain in office visits this September, outpacing national trends and surpassing more recovered markets.
That combination – still lagging but accelerating rapidly – mirrors what’s happening in the city’s leasing market, where AI-driven demand is fueling fresh activity and major employers are renewing their commitments to the Bay Area. Salesforce’s new multi-year investment in San Francisco further underscores confidence in the city’s long-term role as an innovation hub. And in late August, the city’s municipal workers also returned to the office four days a week, further helping set the tone for a city in the midst of a comeback.
With fall routines reestablished and corporate mandates expanding, the office recovery appears to be regaining momentum.
Will this renewed surge carry through the winter – or will the season’s holidays bring another pause?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven RTO analyses to find out.
**NOTE: Data in the office index has changed due to a regular process of enhancing the list of buildings. This includes the addition of nearly 300 new entities across the index and the removal of buildings that no longer met the necessary standard - either due to renovation or repurposing. In total, the removed assets amounted to less than 5% of the overall count, and the overall trendlines remained the same.
Following a brief lift in spring – when mall visits nationwide rose year-over-year (YoY) across all formats – the Placer.ai Mall Index showed momentum fading through the summer and softening further into fall.
Indoor malls registered slight year-over-year (YoY) visit upticks in July and August, but saw visits drop 1.9% YoY in September. Meanwhile, open-air centers and outlet malls, which maintained minor visit gaps in the summer, saw these widen to 1.7% and 6.8%, respectively, in September. Some of this decline can be attributed to a calendar shift: September 2025 had one fewer Sunday than the same month in 2024, a change likely to hit outlet malls the hardest. (So far this year, 18.2% of outlet mall visits have occurred on Sundays, compared to just 16.0% for indoor malls and 15.4% for open-air centers). But the September drop also signals that malls’ summer slowdown isn’t over.
Still, zooming out to quarterly visitation patterns shows that YoY changes in foot traffic have remained relatively modest across mall types since the start of 2025. In Q3 2025, visits to indoor malls were down just 0.1% compared to 2024, while visits to open-air shopping centers and outlet malls dipped just 1.1% and 2.8%, respectively. Given the macroeconomic headwinds that have challenged retail this year – including persistent inflation, tariffs, and higher living costs – these are mild declines.
And with the all-important holiday season approaching, retailers have an opportunity to shift the narrative. Strategic promotions, in-store experiences, and omnichannel integration could help convert cautious consumer sentiment into stronger end-of-year traffic.
Even so, despite relative stability in the sector, outlet malls have underperformed other mall types for YoY visits since the start of the year. The format’s steeper YoY declines likely reflect its stronger appeal to value-focused consumers – shoppers who are increasingly turning to large discounters and online bargain platforms.
Analyzing the three mall types’ trade areas with demographics from STI: PopStats shows that outlet malls attract a higher share of lower- to middle-income consumers than other mall formats. Over the past 12 months, 43.8% of households within outlet malls’ captured markets earned less than $75K annually, compared to 40.8% for indoor malls and 37.8% for open-air shopping centers. These shoppers are more likely to be watching their budgets (including for transportation) and choosing more convenient off-price alternatives such as T.J. Maxx, Ross Dress for Less, Burlington, Marshalls, or HomeGoods – all of which saw consistently steady YoY visits throughout the summer and early fall, as shown in the chart below.
Outlet malls also tend to offer fewer of the experiential elements – dining, entertainment, and events – that have helped other mall types regain momentum, leaving them struggling to differentiate and sustain consistent foot traffic. At the same time, shoppers have become more selective, turning to malls for quick, mission-driven visits rather than leisurely outings, a shift that is also reflected in shorter visit durations.
Although September capped off a sluggish summer, the broader picture offers reason for cautious optimism. Year-to-date performance has remained relatively stable, suggesting that underlying consumer demand remains intact, even if somewhat restrained.
If retailers and mall operators can re-engage shoppers through compelling promotions, festive in-person activations, and other special draws, the upcoming holiday season could still outperform expectations.
For more data-driven shopping center insights visit Placer.ai’s free industry trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
One of the hallmarks of Americana is the image of a biker riding fast and free down enormous expanses of American highways. For tens of thousands of motorcycle enthusiasts, nothing compares to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, held annually in Sturgis, South Dakota. In 2025, the event took place between August 1st and August 10th – and the week and a half of food, folks, and festivities drove a massive spike in out-of-market visitors to Sturgis.
Saturday, August 2, was the most popular day of visits, with visits up 14.7% compared to the prior year and up a whopping +549.9% compared to an average Saturday in Sturgis.
One popular place to visit within Sturgis is Lynn’s Dakotamart on Lazelle St, where one can find groceries ranging from NY strip steaks to fresh Midwest watermelon. During the Sturgis motorcycle rally, the store's trade area more than doubled from 15 miles to 33 miles.
Large events like the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally can also hold much promise for brands, as they seek to capture attention from motorcycle devotees. Placer.ai data shows that some of the top-visited places during the 10 days in August include Wells Fargo, McDonald’s, Burger King, Dairy King, Ace Hardware, and restaurant/live venues such as Loud American. The rally also brings an influx of affluent suburban visitors, with nearly 1 in 5 out-of-town visitors with a household income greater than $150K, and 13.4% belonging to the "Wealthy Suburban Families" Spatial.ai segment.
In sum, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is a unique opportunity for local businesses and local and national brands to capitalize on the excitement and celebratory frame of mind of the out-of-town visitors. Many of the guests come with the mindset to enjoy themselves, mingle with others, stay in local lodgings, and even visit shopping centers and eateries that would normally seem a bit further afield but that in the context of riding are just part of the journey itself.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
It’s been a wild ride for the beauty category. Following a strong couple of years, the segment's growth has stalled in recent months, with clothing – led by the strong performance of off-price chains – taking over the top discretionary growth spot. The slowdown in the beauty space has led some to wonder whether the category's boost from the "lipstick-effect" has reached a ceiling.
However, there are a few niches within the beauty category that may portend success, including Korean Beauty (aka K-Beauty), as well as brands focusing on personalization and sustainability.
First up, K-Beauty. Every summer, there is a song or movie that takes over the charts and goes viral. This summer, it is the unstoppable juggernaut from Netflix K-Pop Demon Hunters. Viewers and listeners around the world just can’t shake the catchy tunes like Soda Pop and the powerful anthem Golden. This animated feature is breaking records left and right: Netflix’s most-watched original animated film, first Netflix film ever to reach a new viewing peak in its fifth week of release showing the power of word of mouth, and the film’s lead single, “Golden,” sung by the girl group Huntrix (EJAE, Audrey Nuna and Rei Ami), hit No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs on July 8th.
K-Pop has already been quite popular in the US for quite some time, with headliners like Blackpink and BTS drawing record crowds. Korean shows like Squid Game have also riveted viewers. And one of the most recent beauty trends on TikTok involves Korean beauty strategies to attain “glass skin.” Key ingredients in K-Beauty such as snail mucin in the holy grail product CosRX, green tea antioxidants, or ginseng have already made their way into many Americans’ daily skincare routines.
With all this recent interest in Korean culture, Ulta is one retailer perfectly poised to introduce its curated selection of K-beauty brands.
In mid-July, the company launched K-Beauty World, which introduces American consumers to a host of K-beauty brands, such as Chasin’ Rabbits, I’m From, Mixsoon, NEOGEN, Rom&nd, Some By Mi, Sungboon Editor and Unleashia. K-Beauty World had an immersive multi-city tour earlier this year including Westfield Century City in Los Angeles, SXSW in Austin, Revolve at Coachella, and Lollapalooza in Chicago. And since the launch, Ulta has drawn longer visits and a higher share of singles to its stores.
Personalization is another big buzzword in the beauty world. With over a dozen stores across the US and Canada, Lip Lab is one beauty chain that allows patrons to customize their products (lipstick, gloss, balm or cheek stick), pick their perfect shade, select a case, add a scent, and engrave the name of their creation. In the case of Lip Lab at Scottsdale Quarter, Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive's dataset shows that this tenant helps to attract Wealthy Suburban Families and Young Urban Singles to a shopping center that otherwise skews a bit older – usually, Sunset Boomers make up over one-fifth of Scottsdale Quarter's shoppers.
In sum, beauty is ever-changing and consumers can be quite fickle. What was once a must-have brand with tweens or a sold-out item on BeautyTok can quickly become yesterday’s news. However, for the year ahead, we do think that K-beauty and personalization can help brands burst through the zeitgeist to capture consumers’ attention.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Although headlines often highlight a decline in alcohol consumption – particularly among younger generations – the data paints a more nuanced picture, with liquor store traffic remaining well above pre-pandemic baselines. So how has BevAlc consumer behavior changed since 2019? And where is traffic still growing year-over-year? We dove into the data to find out.
As shown in the left-hand chart below, visits to BevAlc chains skyrocketed since 2018, with traffic hovering 40 to 60% above Q1 ’19 – a significantly larger increase than that seen in the wider grocery sector as a whole. But the year-over-year growth has largely flattened, as seen in the right-hand chart, with overall grocery traffic now seeing higher year-over-year growth in H1 2025.
Taken together, these two charts suggest that BevAlc remains a core part of consumers' shopping mix – even if the explosive, pandemic-era acceleration has stabilized into a new normal.
And although BevAlc visits nationwide have flattened, visitation data highlights regional pockets of BevAlc growth. Florida metros such as Port St. Lucie, Sebastian–Vero Beach, and Homosassa Springs posted some of the strongest year-over-year gains, supported by population inflows and steady tourism activity. Similar momentum appeared in select Southern markets, including parts of Texas and the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, many Northeastern and West Coast markets experienced steady pullbacks. Pennsylvania metros like Sunbury, Johnstown, and Erie registered consistent declines, while California hubs including Sacramento, Modesto, and Stockton saw negative traffic trends as well.
This divergence suggests that national averages mask meaningful local variation: while consumers overall are steady in their liquor purchases, certain regions are emerging as growth hubs while others cool.
The opportunity in BevAlc retail now isn't in chasing broad national growth, but in aligning with regional demand dynamics. In Florida and Texas, where visitation is climbing, retailers can lean into assortment expansion, premium products, and in-store promotions to capture incremental spend. In slower markets like California and the Northeast, focusing on loyalty programs, distribution through grocery stores, and smaller format stores that emphasize convenience and value might yield better results.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
