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The fast casual space has become an increasingly competitive battleground for share-of-stomach as price-sensitive consumers trade down to lower-cost food channels. Against this backdrop, CAVA and sweetgreen offer a timely case study in resilience. Both brands continue to expand their footprints and diversify their audiences while leaning on loyalty programs and menu innovation to sustain growth during a volatile period for the dining sector. Using AI-powered location analytics, we uncover how macroeconomic pressures have shaped foot traffic trends to both chains and explore the strategies helping to keep them on a positive growth trajectory.
CAVA and sweetgreen continue to pursue aggressive expansion strategies, contributing to the overall visit growth of both brands. But while CAVA showed relative stability in both overall visits and same-store performance in H2 2025, sweetgreen experienced softer year-over-year (YoY) visit growth and moderate same-store visit declines in most months – raising the possibility of emerging “bowl fatigue.”
In Q4 2025, CAVA posted 16.6% YoY visit growth, with loyalty program enhancements and a holiday campaign likely helping to sustain visits.
Sweetgreen’s 4.4% visit growth in Q4 2025 was moderate by comparison, although December stood out for delivering positive YoY visits and same-store visits. This boost may have been driven by the value-focused $10 Harvest Bowl promotion alongside continued adoption of the brand’s refreshed loyalty program.
For both chains, revamped loyalty programs and continued expansion may set the stage for growth in the year ahead.
Even as refreshed loyalty programs and expansion act as growth levers, both chains have recently called out a shared headwind – softer engagement among Gen Z and Millennial diners amid sustained financial pressure on younger consumers.
However, AI-powered captured market analysis combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset suggests early signs of renewed momentum. In Q4 2025, both chains saw an increased share of visitors from the “Young Urban Singles” segment – a cohort that skews heavily Gen Z and Millennial – compared to Q4 2024. And sweetgreen saw growth in its “Educated Urbanites” segment – another cohort that skews heavily Gen Z and Millennial, and which makes up a large share of the chain’s captured market. These shifts could indicate that both brands reclaimed some younger traffic toward the end of the year.
At the same time, both brands saw broader audience diversification within their captured markets. Sweetgreen increased its share of “Wealthy Suburban Families”, while CAVA saw gains among “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” and “Near-Urban Diverse Families”. This suggests that growth among older and more financially stable segments is likely helping to offset some of the pullback from younger diners.
And while some of CAVA and sweetgreen’s suburban and near-urban audience gains likely reflect both chains’ continued unit expansion beyond urban cores, the rise in young urban traffic indicates that strategic initiatives are resonating with traditional audiences. Menu innovation and tools that give diners greater control over nutritional inputs – particularly offerings aligned with protein-forward trends – may be helping to re-engage young urban diners.
As consumer budgets remain under pressure, CAVA and sweetgreen illustrate that sustaining momentum in today’s dining landscape requires a deliberate, multi-pronged strategy. Thoughtful real estate decisions can expand a brand’s consumer base while innovation and loyalty programs keep existing audiences engaged.
The broader industry takeaway is clear: brands that deepen relevance across multiple consumer segments may be best positioned to compete for share-of-stomach in the months ahead.
Which restaurant brands will succeed in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Malls started the year on a strong note, with year-over-year traffic increases across all three mall formats. Open-air shopping centers received the largest gains, with visits up 6.2% compared to January 2025. Indoor malls, which outperformed the other formats for much of 2025, also posted solid growth of 4.5% YoY – a notable result given their already strong performance last January. Even outlet malls, which struggled to maintain growth momentum for most of 2025, saw a 3.6% increase in visits – perhaps suggesting that consumers are entering 2026 more willing to return to discretionary shopping destinations after a cautious 2025.
A closer look at the data suggests that a meaningful share of last month’s mall traffic may have been driven by post-holiday retail returns. There is some evidence that return activity was higher this January than in January 2025, and the timing of visits supports this interpretation.
Mall traffic was heavily front-loaded to the first two weeks of the year – consistent with the post-holiday returns window – with visit growth already beginning to moderate during the third week of January. (The more pronounced decline in traffic observed in the final week of the month was likely driven by the impact of Winter Storm Fern, which weighed on visits across all mall formats).
Visit duration patterns further support the idea that increased returns activity drove much of January’s mall traffic surge – the largest gains were concentrated in short visits, with trips lasting 10 minutes or less increasing by double digits across all mall formats.
At the same time, the data also shows year-over-year growth in longer visits, indicating that higher-quality, more engaged mall trips increased in January 2026 as well. So while post-holiday returns clearly played a role in driving January foot traffic, the simultaneous growth in longer trips suggests that shoppers were also spending time browsing or making additional purchases.
As 2026 unfolds, this blend of efficiency and engagement will be a key dynamic to watch: consumers appear increasingly willing to re-enter physical retail spaces, but they remain intentional about how they shop. Mall formats that can seamlessly support quick, frictionless visits while also encouraging extended dwell time may be best positioned to capture both sides of evolving consumer behavior in the year ahead.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Year-over-year (YoY) visit performance for RBI chains was mixed in Q4 2025. Burger King (0.7%) and Popeyes (-0.5%) had nearly flat foot traffic, while Firehouse Subs (3.9%) had more significant growth. Meanwhile, Tim Hortons (-4.5%) experienced a significant visit gap.
Foot traffic trends across RBI brands in Q4 2025 reveal a divide in chain performance. Burger King and Firehouse Subs were the primary drivers of domestic visit growth, while Popeyes and Tim Hortons experienced softer traffic patterns.
As the monthly visit graph below shows, Burger King’s Q4 2025 momentum came mostly in December 2025, coinciding with the brand’s limited-time SpongeBob Movie Menu and its 13 Days of Deals promotion. Meanwhile, Firehouse Subs sustained visit growth throughout Q4 2025, supported by continued expansion of its store footprint.
Popeyes visits and same-store visits tracked closely and remained largely flat in Q4 2025, pointing to continued challenges for the brand. RBI has emphasized long-term operational improvements and a renewed focus on core menu items as key levers for improving Popeyes’ performance, and while the impact of these initiatives has yet to materialize in the visit data, they could begin to support meaningful growth in 2026.
Domestic traffic to Tim Hortons – a relatively small chain in the U.S. coffee space – lagged significantly in Q4 2025. However, RBI has signaled ambitions to replicate the brand’s international success domestically, leveraging a robust promotional calendar and an accelerated expansion strategy that could help lift brand awareness and strengthen consumer loyalty over time.
What’s next for these brands in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
I grew up playing soccer and have great World Cup memories growing up near the Rose Bowl.
In 1994, the US hosted the men’s World Cup, marking the first time the country had ever hosted a World Cup – men's or women's. We tied our first game against Switzerland, and the second game was against Columbia at the Rose Bowl. I went to that game! Valderama was at his peak, and it seemed one in five fans wore a big yellow wig. The US went on to win that game – our first win ever on home soil. The party that ensued was madness. Seemingly, the whole stadium paraded to Old Town Pasadena after the game, basking in the upset. Old Town had not expected tens of thousands of soccer fans to descend upon them.
But something even greater happened in 1999. The Rose Bowl hosted another epic game, this time between the US and China in the Women’s World Cup finals. The game went into overtime, and then penalties, where we finally won. The image of Brandi Chastain after her game-winning penalty is one of my favorite images of all time.
This year’s World Cup will be played across stadiums nationwide – and although none of these venues include the Rose Bowl, new memories will still be made for fans new and old.
Eight tournament matches, including the final, will be held at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, which already hosted a World Cup-like audience during the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Analyzing the demographics and consumer preferences of fans at that event can provide a strong preview of who will fill the stands in 2026 – and how marketers can capitalize on the opportunity.
So if you are a brand that wants to tap into this experience, here are a few things you can do to help get as close to the action as possible.
Comparing the FIFA Club World Cup Final (July 13, 2025) to other high-profile sporting events held at MetLife Stadium reveals that the soccer match attracted a higher share of Millennials and Gen X attendees than high-profile NFL and NHL events at the same venue. Meanwhile, the NFL and NHL events skewed more heavily toward both older generations and Gen Z.
Takeaway: Global soccer events such as the FIFA World Cup may be especially effective for brands targeting Millennial and Gen X consumers at major U.S. venues.
Diving deeper into the differences between FIFA Club World Cup attendees compared to NHL and NFL fans at MetLife Stadium shows that FIFA Club World Cup Final Attendees tended to travel to the match from further away. The data also shows that MetLife visitors during the FIFA Club World Cup were more likely to take advantage of their trip to MetLife to visit the nearby American Dream Mall compared to NHL or NFL fans.
Takeaway: Global soccer events drive stronger destination-style behavior, creating meaningful spillover for nearby retail and entertainment destinations – and expanded opportunity for brands beyond game day itself.
Compared to NFL and NHL audiences, FIFA Club World Cup Final attendees showed distinct food and beverage preferences. In terms of food choices, soccer fans tended to have a strong preference for Asian cuisine and a slightly higher-than-average affinity for Italian food. On the beverage front, FIFA Club World Cup guests showed lower relative interest in craft beer and higher interest in at-home craft coffee compared to the NFL or NHL game-day crowds.
Takeaway: Soccer fans’ psychographic profiles point to opportunities for non-traditional, globally inspired food and beverage concepts around major soccer events.
One of my favorite learnings from being around brands my entire professional life is that fans are diehard. Fans go to extraordinary lengths to get access to experiences and content that they love. If you are a brand that is somehow lucky enough to be part of the experience, you are etched positively in memory. But if you try to force yourself into the experience and aren’t authentic, consumers will punish you for it.
The World Cup is a global event, but it’s not for everyone. By leveraging AI-powered location analytics, you can see who attends these types of events, how far they travel, where they stay, where they eat – and maybe most importantly, what they do when they are not at the game.
Our recent analysis highlighted Dutch Bros’ push to capture a greater share of morning-daypart visits alongside its aggressive expansion strategy. Now, we’ll dive deeper into the connection between these two aspects of Dutch Bros’ strategy. Using an AI-powered analysis of visitor behavior we’ll explore how Dutch Bros’ play for the morning commuter could help foster brand recognition and loyalty in new markets, driving success as the chain grows its footprint.
Dutch Bros saw consistently positive visit growth in 2025, largely driven by rapid unit expansion, while the chain’s elevated same-store visits indicate strong demand as it entered new markets. The brand’s particularly robust end-of-year momentum may also be linked to its holiday season promotions.
As Dutch Bros grows its footprint, its visitor’s journeys appear consistent with a brand yet to cement itself as part of morning coffee and breakfast routines in new geographies.
In 2025, fewer Dutch Bros visitors came from home immediately before visiting the chain or continued to work immediately after visiting, compared to 2024. This shift may reflect consumers who are encountering the chain more organically as it opens in their area – with curiosity and novelty fueling irregular visits rather than visitation being part of an established routine or commute.
Perhaps morning commuters, the kind Dutch Bros hopes to attract with its aforementioned breakfast strategy, could be the key to turning discovery into loyalty among consumers in new markets.
Viewed together, two facets of Dutch Bros’ growth plan – expansion and morning commuter visits – appear highly complementary; expanded breakfast offerings could potentially facilitate the transition from unfamiliar brand to habitual pit stop as the chain grows its footprint.
What will Dutch Bros’ visit patterns reveal about its growth in the months ahead? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar – Bloomin’s most upscale concept – posted year-over-year visit growth in Q4 2025, while elevated-casual chain Bonefish Grill also sustained traffic gains. Both brands draw disproportionately from higher-income trade areas: Bonefish and Fleming’s captured market median household incomes are $88.0K and $102.6K, respectively, compared with a nationwide median of $79.6K, according to STI: Popstats 2024.
By contrast, Outback Steakhouse saw largely flat traffic in Q4 2025, while Carrabba’s Italian Grill recorded a 3.7% year-over-year decline in visits. These brands attract diners from trade areas with median household incomes closer to the national average – $79.7K for Outback and $82.9K for Carrabba’s.
The traffic trends combined with the trade-area income patterns suggest Bloomin’s brand performance mirrors broader industry dynamics. As consumers remain selective with discretionary spending – particularly on dining out – traffic is increasingly concentrated among higher-end destinations offering a clear “value-plus-experience” proposition or casual chains with a well-defined value proposition. Meanwhile, undifferentiated casual dining brands continue to lag.
Against this backdrop, Outback Steakhouse’s flat to slightly negative same-store traffic through much of H2 2025 reflects its positioning within the more challenged segment of casual dining rather than a lack of strategic focus. Management has outlined plans to sharpen the Outback's value proposition through improvements in food quality, guest experience, and operational consistency – steps designed to better position Outback with diners seeking greater value and differentiation in 2026.
Taken month by month, the data suggest that Bloomin’ Brands’ higher-end concepts benefited from both stronger underlying demand and greater flexibility in capturing discretionary spend. Meanwhile core casual brands remained more exposed to year-end pressure.
Bonefish Grill’s same-store traffic showed episodic strength – most notably in October – indicating periods of solid unit-level demand even as momentum softened into the holidays. Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, by contrast, delivered its strongest gains on an overall traffic basis, pointing to system-level growth and traffic concentration that helped offset more uneven same-store performance.
Meanwhile, Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s Italian Grill saw declines deepen into December across both metrics. This dip underscores the heightened vulnerability of traditional casual dining concepts during the holiday season, when increased competition for discretionary spending tends to pressure lower-differentiated dining occasions.
Looking ahead to 2026, Bloomin’ Brands appears positioned to benefit as stabilizing consumer conditions intersect with ongoing brand-level investments. With higher-end concepts demonstrating resilience and Outback’s repositioning efforts underway, the portfolio is better aligned to capture both experience-driven and value-oriented dining demand.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Physical retail is increasingly defined by a small group of dominant players – Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General – that span grocery, essentials, and discretionary categories at a scale no other retailers can match. These chains serve as bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop, and what drives their decisions. And understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026.
Retail giants Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, and Dollar General continue to capture a growing share of brick-and-mortar visits nationwide.
• The share of physical retail traffic captured by these giants rose from 16.8% in 2019 to 17.5% in Q1 2026, signaling continued sector consolidation.
• The scale advantage enjoyed by retail giants is increasingly self-reinforcing: Larger players benefit from superior data, stronger vendor leverage, and operational efficiencies that in turn further widen the gap.
• As these advantages compound, direct competition becomes less viable. Instead, smaller retailers should focus on owning specific trip missions – such as convenience, fill-in, or discovery – where format, assortment curation, and in-store experience can more directly shape consumer choice.
• For CRE operators, the growing dominance of these retail giants increases reliance on top-tier anchors, potentially driving performance gaps between centers with strong national tenants and those without.
• For CPG companies, the consolidation in the offline retail space heightens channel concentration, making success with a handful of large retailers critical while increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage.
Traffic trends across the four giants reveal meaningful divergence in performance.
• Costco and Dollar General are driving the strongest visit growth, supported by both substantial fleet expansions and rising visits per location. In 2025, visits per store exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 18.1% for Costco and 10.2% for Dollar General, with both brands also seeing steady increases in their share of total brick-and-mortar retail chain visits.
• Walmart remains the largest player by far, accounting for 9.7% of traffic to major brick-and-mortar chains in 2025. And though the behemoth’s share of visits declined slightly in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, it has held steady over the past three years.
• Target’s visit share has remained relatively flat over the past three years, reflecting stalled momentum. Still, early 2026 trends point to emerging signs of recovery – with Q1 visits up 8.3% compared to Q1 2019.
• Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad “everyday value” remains steady with slower growth. Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.
• For retailers and CPG companies, the broader lesson is that value perception is becoming more nuanced. It’s no longer just about offering low prices at scale, but about how value is delivered – whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions. Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving.
• For CRE operators, the outperformance of retailers with clearly defined value propositions underscores the importance of mission-driven tenant mix. As shoppers visit with increasingly specific missions in mind, retailers that cater to those missions are outperforming. Tenant strategies should reflect this shift, ensuring complementary offerings that reinforce a cohesive shopping mission.
Walmart remains the dominant brick-and-mortar retailer nationwide and across all fifty states. Still, the data suggests there is room for multiple runners-up to succeed across geographies and customer segments.
• Dollar General, Target, and Costco each attract distinct audience segments. Dollar General attracts a disproportionately high share of the “Mature and Retired Living” segment, while Costco leads among family households, with Target also over-indexing with this group. Among younger “Contemporary Households,” meanwhile – a segment encompassing singles, married couples without children, and non-family households – Target commands the highest share, slightly over-indexing compared to the nationwide baseline.
• Regional strengths vary significantly, with Dollar General concentrated in the South, Costco dominant in the Northwest, and Target showing more dispersed areas of strength.
• Despite similar overall visit share, Dollar General leads in more states (26 vs. 17 for Target), reflecting broader geographic dominance.
• For retailers, the data suggests that growth opportunities are increasingly shaped by localized demographic and geographic dynamics – meaning that targeted, market-specific strategies may be more effective than uniform national approaches.
• Younger “Contemporary Households” remain less locked-in than older demographics, representing a key battleground for future growth.
• For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers.
• CRE operators should ask "which anchor is right for this trade area" rather than "which anchor is strongest," as mismatched tenants can underperform even if they’re nationally dominant.
After remaining essentially flat in 2025, average visits per location to Walmart grew 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026. And the retailer’s solid Q1 performance across the U.S. underscores its unique ability to resonate across income levels, geographies, and shopping missions.
• Walmart posted year-over-year visit growth across nearly all U.S. markets in Q1 2026, reinforcing its role as a universally relevant retailer.
• The giant’s comparative softness in small parts of the Northeast suggests an opportunity to double down on region-specific assortments, urban-friendly formats, or partnerships to better match local shopping behaviors.
• Walmart’s broad-based growth shows that even as consumers are increasingly willing to visit multiple retailers to get what they want, its Superstore model has solidified its role as a primary stop on the American shopping journey – making it a uniquely reliable anchor for CRE operators.
• For smaller retailers, this underscores the opportunity to win the “second stop” – capturing trips through curated assortments and more tailored in-store experiences that Walmart’s scale is less optimized to deliver.
• For CPG companies, Walmart stands out as a highly attractive partner for broad, efficient reach, given its consistent traffic across markets.
Target’s recent performance suggests early momentum in reversing prior softness.
• Q1 2026 visits to Target rose 5.1% year over year, marking the chain’s first positive visit growth in more than a year, and suggesting that the chain’s new turnaround strategy may be bearing fruit.
• Gains were driven primarily by visits lasting 30 to 45 minutes, which accounted for 19.6% of overall visits to Target in Q1 2026 – pointing to stronger in-store engagement rather than quick, mission-driven stops.
• Target’s return to traffic growth – driven by increases in mid-length trips – signals a sustainable recovery on the horizon, strengthening its reliability as a traffic-driving tenant for CRE operators.
• Target's turnaround shows retailers how increasing shopper engagement can generate growth by converting quick trips into higher-value, multi-category experiences.
• For CPG companies, the rise in mid-length visits indicates a more receptive in-store environment for discovery and trade-up, making Target an increasingly attractive channel for innovation, merchandising, and premium offerings.
Dollar General is becoming embedded in consumers’ daily routines.
• Visitor frequency to Dollar General is on the rise. In Q1 2026, nearly a quarter of visitors frequented the chain at least four times in an average month, up from 21.2% in Q1 2022.
• Dollar General is becoming increasingly local in nature: As its footprint expands, more visits originate nearby, with 28.0% coming from within one mile – reinforcing its role as a neighborhood store of choice.
• Dollar General’s visitation patterns point to a growing ownership of the convenience mission. Its expanding store density is creating a self-reinforcing network effect, where proximity fuels frequency, and frequency strengthens long-term defensibility.
• For retailers, Dollar General’s rising share of nearby and high-frequency visits shows that proximity can drive habit, making convenience a powerful lever for building repeat behavior.
• For CRE operators, the data highlights the strength of hyper-local, necessity-driven traffic, positioning Dollar General as a stable tenant that anchors consistent, repeat visitation.
• For CPG professionals, the increase in frequent trips signals a high-velocity purchase environment, favoring smaller pack sizes and products that align with regular replenishment cycles.
Costco continues to grow and diversify its audience despite higher membership fees and stricter food court access policies, highlighting the strength of its value proposition and loyalty model.
• In September 2024, Costco raised its membership fees for the first time in seven years – and more recently tightened enforcement of member-only access to its food courts. Despite these changes, visitation has remained strong, highlighting the company’s pricing power and deep customer loyalty.
• At the same time, Costco’s shopper base is broadening, with median household income trending slightly downward while remaining relatively affluent.
• Offering strong value to a relatively affluent consumer base can be a winning formula in 2026. Retailers that combine quality, trust, and perceived savings – rather than competing solely on low prices – are well positioned to drive both loyalty and sustained traffic growth.
• For CRE operators, Costco’s sustained traffic growth and broadening shopper base reinforce its value as a standalone, high-demand traffic magnet that can anchor entire trade areas and drive surrounding retail development.
• For CPG companies, the combination of high traffic and declining median HHI signals that Costco is evolving into a scaled channel reaching beyond affluent shoppers, requiring more diversified assortment and pricing strategies.
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It’s been decades since the U.S. last hosted the World Cup, and anticipation continues to build. While the matches themselves will deliver thrilling moments for fans inside the stadium, a far broader audience is expected to engage from beyond the gates – gathering at bars, watch parties, and living rooms across the country.
Drawing on insights from recent sporting and cultural events, this analysis examines how the World Cup may impact consumer behavior and audiences across stadiums, host cities, and nationwide.
In 2025, MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ hosted a wide range of concerts and sporting events. And an examination of three – Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s tour stop, the FIFA Club World Cup Final, and a Week 17 New York Jets matchup against division rivals and the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots – reveals clear differences in audience composition across event types.
Trade area analysis showed that the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final drew the largest share of single visitors and the highest median household income (HHI) of the three events – a pattern that could reflect the premium tickets and travel typically associated with a quadrennial championship match.
With the 2026 World Cup elevating the level of global competition, stadiums set to host matches this summer – including MetLife – may see even more dramatic shifts in their audience relative to other events.
While spectators attending World Cup matches are likely to differ from those drawn to other events throughout the year, audience shifts are likely to occur also within the tournament itself. As the competition progresses and the stakes rise, the visitor profile at host stadiums may trend progressively higher-income, as suggested by an analysis of Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA during the recent NFL season and Super Bowl.
During the Super Bowl, the stadium’s captured market median HHI surpassed that of every 49ers home game during the 2025-26 season – a pattern consistent with the event’s premium ticket pricing, national draw, and high levels of out-of-market travel.
And since the World Cup only takes place every four years, and necessitates international travel for die-hard fans, attendees are likely to be even more affluent than Super Bowl go-ers. Moreover, as the tournament reaches its later stages, each match becomes more significant and carries the potential to drive an even more affluent in-person audience.
Diving deeper into last year’s FIFA Club World Cup Final and Semifinal matches at MetLife Stadium provides further insight into the significance of the in-person audience that doesn’t make it into the stands. While FIFA generally places restrictions on tailgating, the behavior was still observed at MetLife and several other tournament venues in 2025. To put the phenomenon into perspective, location intelligence indicates that on the day of the Club World Cup final, combined visits to MetLife and its parking lots were 24.8% higher than visits to the stadium alone.
AI-powered trade area analysis further contextualizes the economic significance of this audience. During the semifinal matches, MetLife Stadium’s captured market median HHI remained nearly identical – just over $100K – with and without parking lot visitors. A similar pattern held for the Final, where median HHI for both the stadium-only and combined stadium-plus-parking visitors both rose above $115K, with the stadium-only figure only marginally higher.
This suggests that tailgaters represent a significant cohort with discretionary income to spend on the broader match-day experience, even if they opt out of spending big money on tickets.
With tailgating during the 2026 World Cup likely to remain limited due to FIFA regulations, the spending power of fans just outside the stadiums could create opportunities for alternative forms of engagement. Fan zones and other nearby hospitality events may offer effective ways to capture demand.
Nearby dining and entertainment venues are among the most accessible experiences for fans in the stadium area, and these stand to benefit significantly from elevated game-day foot traffic.
Analysis of recent FIFA Club World Cup matches reveals the impact of match-day activity on local businesses. Visitor journey data from the June 25th, 2025 matchup between Inter Milan and River Plate at Seattle’s Lumen Field, and the June 28th, 2025 meeting between Palmeiras and Botafogo at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia reveals that a significant share of stadium visitors also stopped at nearby dining and recreation venues on the day. Location intelligence also shows that, on the day of the match, each stadium-adjacent venue received a significant visit boost compared to its 2025 daily average.
This pattern underscores the potential impact of the World Cup on the surrounding commercial ecosystem. The stadium may anchor the experience, but fan engagement will likely spill into adjacent areas – creating opportunities for both organizers and local businesses. To take full advantage, restaurants and bars can position themselves as fan-friendly destinations through watch parties, extended hours, and even mobile or outdoor offerings in stadium corridors.
Previous major sporting events – including the Super Bowl – demonstrate that the impact of large-scale sporting moments often extends beyond the immediate stadium vicinity into the broader regional economy.
In the weeks leading up to the latest Super Bowl in Santa Clara, CA on February 8th, 2026, both the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkley and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSAs saw a notable uptick in year-over-year dining traffic – outperforming the nationwide average. The timing suggests that early-arriving travellers combined with locals enjoying pre-event concerts and events helped fuel demand. In contrast, nationwide dining traffic saw a more pronounced lift the following week – likely tied to Valentine’s Day on February 14.
This pattern indicates that regions hosting – or located near – World Cup 2026 matches could experience similar pre-event dining tailwinds. As out-of-town visitors arrive and local engagement builds in the days and weeks leading up to key matches, restaurants and hospitality may benefit from elevated demand – particularly when supported by ancillary events and fan experiences.
Other recent examples suggest that cities hosting major events like the World Cup stand to benefit from an influx of out-of-town visitors – particularly those with higher spending power.
Since the beginning of 2025, New Orleans has hosted a series of popular events that drove significant non-local traffic. AI-powered trade area data indicates that during these periods, out-of-market visitors consistently exhibited a higher median HHI than both local residents and typical commuters into the city.
As expected, the 2025 Super Bowl generated the most pronounced spike in out-of-market visitor median HHI among the events analyzed, but the pattern extends beyond one-time spectacles. Recurring events like Mardi Gras and major music festivals also attracted high-income visitors to the city – likely benefitting the local hospitality, dining, and retail industries.
Looking ahead to the 2026 World Cup, host cities are likely to experience a similar dynamic. The tournament’s global draw will likely bring affluent travelers with discretionary dollars to the host regions – visitors that will spend not only on match tickets, but also on accommodation, dining, and shopping. By sponsoring tournament-related festivals, concerts, and experiences in or near retail corridors, cities can amplify the economic impact of the World Cup beyond the stadium.
The impact of the 2026 World Cup is unlikely to be confined to the select cities hosting matches. Major sporting events drive large-scale at-home viewership, generating ripple effects nationwide.
The Super Bowl offers a useful benchmark. In the days leading up to February 8th, 2026, visits to grocery stores and pizza chains rose above day-of-week averages for 2025, ultimately peaking on the day of the big game day as households appeared to pick up last-minute fixings and takeout for their watch parties.
This pattern indicates that the World Cup – with its extended schedule and multiple high-stakes matchups – could drive repeated waves of elevated grocery and take-out demand as fans gather together throughout the tournament.
Of course, at-home viewing is just one piece of the match-day equation. Many fans opt for a more communal experience – gathering at sports bars across the country to watch the game alongside fellow supporters.
Recent highly-anticipated soccer matches offer a clear signal of this behavior. During the recent Allstate Continental Clásico, MLS Cup Final, and SheBelieves Cup Final, top sports bars in key markets like Los Angeles and Miami recorded visit spikes above day-of-week averages.
Not every World Cup fan will be able to attend in-person or travel to a host city, but previous match-day lifts in sports bar traffic demonstrate that fans nationwide will participate in the tournament experience.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to engage a wide spectrum of fans – from casual viewers at home to dedicated supporters traveling to stadiums – shaping how and where demand emerges.
As a result, the tournament’s impact will be felt across multiple layers of retail, dining, and tourism. Stadium-centered spending, activity in surrounding corridors, host-city consumer demand, and gatherings of spectators nationwide all point to a broad and interconnected World Cup effect that is likely to shape both audience composition and behavior at scale.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
