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Craft retailers – one of the top destinations for purchasing holiday decor – posted impressive year-over-year (YoY) gains this holiday season: AI-powered location analytics reveals that visits to industry leaders Michaels and Hobby Lobby were up YoY by double-digits almost every week of the holiday season. And while some of these chains' success is likely due to the reduced competition – with Party City having ceased its operations earlier this year – the strong growth also suggests that, despite digital competition, the demand for physical browsing and festive inspiration remains high.
We dove into the data to analyze how the holiday decor market is evolving.
The 2025 closures of Party City and JOANN consolidated the crafting sector, leaving Michaels and Hobby Lobby with fewer competitors and driving up YoY visits. This market shift proved particularly advantageous in Q4 as shoppers seeking Halloween decorations and holiday trimmings flocked to the remaining specialty retailers.
But Michaels and Hobby Lobby's success is due to more than just a market consolidation – the two chains have cemented themselves as premier destinations for holiday home decor. And while these retailers have traditionally relied on families looking to fill suburban homes with seasonal cheer, AI-powered location analytics reveal that younger, more urban shoppers are also fueling the holiday traffic boost.
Focusing on October and November data reveals that both chains saw the share of "households with children" in their captured market dip between 2024 and 2025, while the share of Young Professionals and Young Urban Singles increased. This suggests that at least some of the holiday decorating in 2025 was fueled not just by family traditions, but also by a younger generation curating their spaces with viral, budget-friendly finds.
While the exit of competitors like Party City and JOANN cleared the playing field in 2025, Michaels and Hobby Lobby's success is due to more than just absorbing the displaced demand. By capturing a new wave of young, urban shoppers hunting for viral trends, these retailers have proven that holiday décor is no longer solely the domain of suburban families. This successful pivot from traditional utility to trend-driven destination suggests that the craft sector isn't just surviving the retail shakeout; it is effectively reshaping itself for a new generation of consumers.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
7 Brew Coffee may be the fastest-growing coffee chain in the US right now. The chain surged from just 14 locations at the start of 2022 to around 500 locations by October 2025. And average visits per location also increased significantly – indicating that despite the breakneck expansion, the drive-thru brand still has significant runway left to grow.
The chain's hypergrowth has been fueled by significant capital, including an equity investment from Blackstone in 2024 and a massive franchise agreement with the Flynn Group to develop an additional 160 stores. With a modular building model that allows for rapid deployment, 7 Brew is positioned to aggressively challenge major drive-thru competitors like Dutch Bros and Scooter's Coffee.
7 Brew's success can also be linked to a broader rise in drive-thru-centric coffee concepts. The chart below illustrates the shifting category dynamics in recent years as leading drive-thru coffee chains – with Dutch Bros in the lead – commanding a growing share of overall coffee visits since 2019.
Even amid the broader rise of drive-thru coffee chains, 7 Brew’s growth continues to stand out. While the brand still holds a relatively small share of the overall coffee market, the brand’s proportional growth outpaces its peers, reflecting both aggressive unit expansion and strong consumer adoption. The chart also underscores how 7 Brew is increasingly carving out space within a segment historically dominated by brands like Dutch Bros – suggesting meaningful long-term competitive potential.
With drive-thru coffee continuing to surge in popularity and consumers gravitating toward convenience-forward formats, 7 Brew is well positioned to continue capturing incremental market share and solidifying its status as one of the fastest-rising brands in the category.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Despite the ongoing consumer headwinds, the 2025 holiday shopping season delivered year-over-year (YoY) gains for both retail and dining chains nationwide, with the majority of states registering retail and dining traffic increases during the holiday window. And while performance varied meaningfully by category and format, aggregate retail traffic numbers point to significant consumer engagement throughout the end of 2025.
Bifurcation has been a defining trend of consumer behavior in 2025 and continued to shape shopping patterns during the holiday season. Thrift stores and off-price retailers led the apparel category with traffic up 11.7% and 6.6% (November 1st to December 24th, 2025), respectively, compared to last year’s holiday period. Luxury chains and department stores also posted modest gains (+1.8%), while traditional apparel chains saw slight declines (-1.8%) and mid-tier department stores experienced more pronounced traffic drops (-6.2%).
Open-air shopping centers led mall-format performance during the 2025 holiday season, with visits up 1.7% YoY, as consumers gravitated toward environments that offered a more festive, experiential atmosphere and a wider mix of dining options. The format likely received an additional lift from warmer-than-average weather across much of the country, which encouraged shoppers to fully take advantage of the outdoor amenities and social experiences open-air centers offer during the holidays.
Indoor mall traffic was largely flat (+0.8%) – a positive signal given ongoing consumer headwinds, especially for mid-tier formats – suggesting that traditional malls were able to maintain relevance during a pressured spending environment.
Meanwhile, outlet mall visits declined slightly (-0.8%), likely reflecting reduced appetite for destination-driven, discretionary trips as shoppers prioritized convenience, everyday value, and locally accessible retail over longer, deal-oriented excursions during the holidays.
Within the superstore category, wholesale clubs and discount & dollar stores outperformed mass merchants. This performance underscores consumers’ continued shift toward value-driven retail during the holidays and highlights that “value” extends beyond low prices alone; wholesale clubs, with their compelling value propositions, are also seeing meaningful gains in the current consumer environment.
Categories most closely tied to self-gifting outperformed more traditional holiday segments during the 2025 season. Pet stores and services (+5.5% YoY) and home improvement retailers (+3.4% YoY) led the way, perhaps because purchases from these categories are typically positioned as practical investments in everyday life, ranging from caring for pets to improving and maintaining living spaces.
In contrast, home furnishings (-0.8%) lagged, as these purchases tend to be more decorative or occasion-driven and therefore more likely to be intended as gifts for others rather than immediate, utility-focused upgrades. Traffic to electronics stores also dipped slightly (-1.5%). Together, these trends underscore a consumer preference for spending that delivers direct, everyday value to themselves over more traditional, outward-facing holiday gifting.
Overall, location analytics for the 2025 holiday season suggest that consumers remained highly engaged despite ongoing economic pressure, but their spending behavior continued to fragment. Across apparel, superstores, and discretionary categories, shoppers consistently gravitated toward retailers that delivered clear value – whether through low prices, strong quality-to-price ratios, or products tied to personal utility and well-being. The outperformance of thrift, off-price, wholesale clubs, and self-gifting categories underscores a consumer mindset that is both pragmatic and selective, balancing budget consciousness with targeted willingness to spend.
Looking ahead to 2026, these patterns suggest that retailers should move beyond one-dimensional value messaging and instead sharpen their core propositions. Formats that clearly articulate why they are “worth the trip” – through pricing power, assortment differentiation, or alignment with everyday consumer priorities – will be best positioned to win share. As bifurcation persists, success will increasingly depend on understanding which consumer needs a brand serves best and doubling down on those strengths, rather than attempting to compete broadly across a squeezed and highly segmented retail landscape.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Dutch Bros has long been a powerhouse in the beverage space, building its business with rapid expansion and securing a loyal following. But to maintain its growth momentum, Dutch Bros will likely need to look beyond its beverage-first identity. By strategically expanding its breakfast offerings, the brand can attract a new segment of morning diners while driving incremental spend from its existing loyal customer base.
Dutch Bros is still on an aggressive growth trajectory, with plans to continue opening new locations at a brisk pace. The company passed the 1,000-unit mark this year and aims to reach over 2,000 locations nationwide by 2029. However, recent data suggests that while the brand's overall footprint is expanding, its established locations are facing the typical challenges of a maturing brand.
Throughout much of 2025, total visits to Dutch Bros increased rapidly year-over-year (YoY), driven largely by new store openings. And while same-store visits – which measure the performance of locations open for at least a year – were also generally positive, the growth was somewhat uneven. So although the brand’s expansion is still meeting robust demand, the gap between total growth and same-store performance may indicate that Dutch Bros is reaching a level of saturation in its initial markets.
To sustain growth, the brand is targeting the morning daypart by introducing breakfast offerings, reaching approximately 160 stores by the end of September 2025 and plans to deploy the menu across its store fleet in 2026. This strategy appears to be paying off: November saw same-store visits surge to their highest levels of the year. While this spike was likely supported by holiday menu launches and Black Friday, it also suggests the breakfast initiative is gaining traction and successfully revitalizing performance at established locations.
Why is Dutch Bros betting on breakfast? Historically, Dutch Bros has seen a lower percentage of its daily traffic occur during the morning daypart than its competitors. And when comparing the chain’s hourly visit distribution to the wider coffee category, it becomes clear why the shift toward a more robust breakfast offering is a logical move for Dutch Bros. While the coffee category as a whole sees 43.1% of its total daily visits between 5:00 and 11:00 AM, Dutch Bros captures only 32.6% during that same window, according to the chart below.
To bridge this gap, Dutch Bros is evolving its menu to include more substantial food options. Food currently accounts for only about 2% of Dutch Bros’ total sales, a figure it hopes to increase significantly with the help of hot breakfast items. As Dutch Bros continues to roll out the expanded food lineup to more locations in 2026, the brand is positioning itself to compete directly for the morning commuter who currently heads to a competitor for a meal-and-drink combo.
And to further bolster its morning performance, Dutch Bros could lean into "functional fuel" trends that complement its popular protein coffee and are likely to appeal in particular to younger consumers who prioritize health-conscious menu options.
Dutch Bros is at a pivotal point in its evolution. While new store openings continue to drive visits, the brand is now focusing on deepening its relationship with customers through the breakfast daypart. If the recent uptick in same-store visits is any indication, the shift from a "beverage-first" destination to a well-rounded morning stop could be exactly what the company needs to sustain its long-term momentum.
For more dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The last full week before Christmas (December 15th to 21st) saw massive seasonal spikes in traffic across the board, underscoring the continued importance of physical retail during the holiday season. But while visits rose broadly compared to the year-to-date (YTD) average, year-over-year comparisons tell a more nuanced story, with many traditional gifting categories experiencing modest declines relative to 2024.
Part of this softness likely reflects the calendar shift. Super Saturday fell on December 20th in 2025 but on December 21st in 2024, so 2025 holiday shoppers enjoyed an extra day between Super Saturday and Christmas to complete last-minute purchases. Yet a deeper look at the data suggests that timing alone does not tell the full story. Value-oriented retailers – including dollar stores, thrift stores, and off-price chains – saw traffic remain flat or even increase year over year (YoY) despite the same calendar shift.
So consumers are still spending, but they are trading down, actively seeking deals, and gravitating toward “treasure hunt” retail experiences rather than traditional discretionary splurges.
In a season defined by economic prudence, the most immediate winners were the retailers promising the most bang for the buck. Discount & Dollar Stores – not a traditional holiday category – saw a healthy seasonal uplift of 37.3% compared to their weekly average as well as a 3.8% traffic increase compared to 2024. In contrast, Superstores saw smaller spikes compared to the YTD average and YoY visits dips of 4.6%.
The outperformance of dollar stores suggests that shoppers were making targeted, smaller-basket trips for affordable essentials and stocking stuffers rather than relying solely on the "one-stop-shop" giants.
The "traditional" holiday categories, including apparel and electronic stores, experienced their expected massive seasonal "pop," but – like superstores – struggled to match the highs of 2024.
And while some of the decline can be explained by the calendar shift, the double-digit YoY drop in traffic to key holiday categories such as department stores suggests that timing alone does not account for the slowdown. Instead, the data indicates that consumers are still showing up to buy gifts, but are purchasing fewer items or choosing lower-priced alternatives – forcing traditional discretionary retailers to compete more aggressively for a shrinking share of wallet.
Malls showed a similar pattern, with strong seasonal traffic surges alongside YoY declines – although these YoY gaps were far smaller than in other discretionary categories. This resilience suggests that, despite headwinds facing individual retailers, the mall itself remains the central hub of the holiday shopping experience.
The off-price sector delivered one of the strongest signals this season, posting sharp seasonal traffic surges alongside modest YoY gains despite unfavorable calendar shifts. Thrift stores also stood out, recording a notable YoY increase in visits even as traffic came in slightly below the category’s YTD weekly average – likely reflecting the category’s year-round strength and its relatively recent emergence as a holiday shopping destination.
This data underscores the outsized role of value perception in shaping holiday shopping behavior and highlights the growing appeal of the “thrill of the find.” Whether hunting for a designer deal or uncovering a one-of-a-kind vintage piece, consumers increasingly favored discovery-driven experiences over the standardized assortments of traditional retail.
For retailers looking ahead to 2026, the lessons of this holiday season are stark. First, value is non-negotiable – consumers are actively migrating to formats that offer perceived savings. Second, the mall is not dead, but it is evolving. The format remains a critical seasonal traffic driver, but it must compete harder on convenience and experience. Finally, the success of the off-price and thrift sectors suggests that inventory freshness and the "treasure hunt" dynamic are powerful tools to combat consumer fatigue. As we close the books on 2025, it’s clear that while the consumer is still shopping, they are doing so with a sharper, more critical eye.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Black Friday has long served as a reliable anchor in the retail calendar. But some retailers place less weight on the post-Thanksgiving rush – or even opt out of it altogether – in favor of promotional windows that better align with their customers or brand values.
We analyzed foot traffic patterns at two such retailers, REI and IKEA, to see how alternative promotional strategies can shape visit performance throughout the year.
Mission-driven REI’s decision to close on Black Friday is a deliberate break from retail tradition. The brand’s long-running #OptOutside initiative reflects its commitment to outdoor activity and to the well-being of its employees, who get the day off to spend with friends and family.
The graph below highlights the foot traffic impact of the decision: while the traditional apparel and recreational & sporting goods categories experienced a sharp surge during the week of Black Friday, REI’s visits dropped below its 2025 YTD average.
Even so, the data indicates that REI still captures seasonal momentum. The retailer’s pre-Thanksgiving Holiday Sale delivered a modest visit lift that partially offset its voluntary pause on one of the category’s highest-traffic days. And REI’s post-Black Friday sales – Cyber Monday and last-minute gifts sale – appeared to do some heavy lifting for the brand, while the anticipated end-of-year sale is likely to provide an additional foot traffic boost as shoppers gear up for winter activities.
And beyond the holidays, REI follows a distinct promotional rhythm of its own, leaning into moments – like the start of summer – that reflect the seasonal outdoor needs of its customers. The retailer’s annual Anniversary Sale in May delivered the largest weekly visit spike of 2025, with demand for warm-weather gear sustaining elevated traffic in the weeks that followed. And unlike traditional apparel and recreational and sporting goods retailers, which saw a pronounced back-to-school visit surge in early August, the brand saw a smaller bump during its end-of-summer Labor Day sale.
REI’s alternative holiday cadence sets up an interesting comparison with other retailers – like IKEA – that hold Black Friday sales events but rely less heavily on the milestone than their wider category.
As shown in the graph below, the furniture and home furnishings segment received its largest visit boost of the year in the weeks leading up to and including Black Friday, as consumers likely took advantage of big sales events to spruce up their spaces in anticipation of hosting family and friends for the holidays. IKEA, however, saw just a modest November lift, with weekly visits remaining below the chain’s year-to-date average.
Instead, IKEA anchors its promotional calendar around several event-driven periods throughout the year – most notably its summer sale window from June through August, when the brand capitalizes on home furnishing demand during the peak moving season. Other events, such as IKEA’s winter clearance sale from December 2024 through early January 2025 helped stabilize post-holiday traffic at a moment when category visits softened.
REI and IKEA’s visit trends underscore the value of a promotional calendar built around brand alignment rather than conventional retail expectations. Neither retailer maximizes Black Friday in the way their respective categories do, yet both demonstrate how targeted seasonal events can cultivate consistent demand outside of traditional peak periods.
For more retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.
2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.
3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.
4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.
5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.
While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.
Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket.
The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.
Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.
One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.
Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.
Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping.
While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail.
For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.
This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.
Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022.
This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product.
Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.
So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends.
As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.
This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.
Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.
In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.
Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey.
As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.
Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.
To optimize office utilization and surrounding activity in 2026, stakeholders should:
1. Plan for continued, but slower, office recovery. Attendance continues to rise and has reached a post-pandemic high, but moderating growth suggests the return-to-office may progress at a more gradual and incremental pace than in prior years.
2. Account for growing seasonality in office staffing, local retail operations, and municipal services. As office visitation becomes increasingly concentrated in late spring and summer, offices, downtown retailers, and cities may need to plan for more predictable peaks and troughs by adjusting hours, staffing levels, and local services accordingly, rather than relying on annual averages.
3. Align leasing strategies with seasonal demand. Stronger attendance in Q2 and Q3 suggests these quarters are best suited for leasing activity, while softer Q1 and Q4 periods may be better used for renovations, repositioning, and targeted activation efforts designed to draw workers in.
4. Design hybrid policies around midweek anchor days. With Tuesdays and Wednesdays consistently driving the highest office attendance, employers can maximize collaboration and space utilization by concentrating meetings, programming, and in-office expectations midweek.
5. Reduce early-week commute friction to support attendance. Monday office attendance appears closely correlated with commute ease, suggesting that reliable and efficient transportation may be an important factor in early-week office recovery.
6. Prioritize proximity in leasing and development decisions. Visits from employees traveling less than five miles to work have increased steadily since 2019, reinforcing the value of centrally located offices and housing near employment hubs.
2025 was the year of the return-to-office (RTO) mandate. Employers across industries – from Amazon to JPMorgan Chase – instituted full-time on-site requirements and sought to rein in remote work. But the year also underscored the limits of policy. As employee pushback and enforcement challenges mounted, many organizations turned to quieter tactics such as “hybrid creep” to gradually expand in-office expectations without triggering outright resistance.
For employers seeking to boost attendance, as well as office owners, retailers, and cities looking to maximize today’s visitation patterns, understanding what actually drives employee behavior has become more critical than ever. This reports dives into the data to examine office visitation patterns in 2025 – and explore how structural factors such as weather, commute convenience, and workplace proximity have emerged as key differentiators shaping how and when, and how often workers come into the office.
National office visits rose 5.6% year over year in 2025, bringing attendance to just 31.7% below pre-pandemic levels and marking the highest point since COVID disrupted workplace routines. At the same time, the pace of growth slowed compared to 2024, signaling a possible transition into a steadier phase of recovery.
With new return-to-office mandates expected in 2026, and the balance of power quietly shifting towards employers, additional gains remain likely. But the trajectory suggested by the data points toward gradual progress rather than a return to the more rapid rebounds seen in 2023 or 2024.
Before COVID, “I couldn’t come in, it was raining” would have sounded like a flimsy excuse to most bosses. But today, weather, travel, and individual scheduling are widely accepted reasons to stay home, reflecting a broader assumption that face time should flex around convenience.
This shift is visible in the growing seasonality of office visitation, which has intensified even as overall attendance continues to rise. In 2019, office life followed a relatively steady year-round cadence, with only modest quarterly variation after adjusting for the number of working days. In recent years, however, greater seasonality has emerged. Since 2024, Q1 and Q4 have consistently underperformed while Q2 and Q3 have posted meaningfully stronger attendance – a pattern that became even more pronounced in 2025. Winter weather disruptions, extended holiday travel, and the growing normalization of “workations” appear to be pulling some visits out of the colder, holiday-heavy months and concentrating them into late spring and summer.
For employers, office owners, downtown retailers, and city planners, this emerging seasonality matters. Staffing, operating budgets, and programming decisions increasingly need to account for predictable soft quarters and peak periods, making quarterly planning a more useful lens than annual averages. Leasing activity may also convert best in Q2 and Q3, when districts feel most active. Slower quarters, meanwhile, may be better suited for renovations, construction, or employer- and city-led programming designed to give workers a reason to show up.
The growing premium placed on convenience is also evident in the persistence of the TGIF workweek – and in the factors shaping its regional variability.
Before COVID, Mondays were typically the busiest day of the week, followed by relatively steady attendance through Thursday and a modest drop-off on Fridays. Today, Tuesdays and Wednesdays have firmly established themselves as the primary anchor days, while Mondays and Fridays see consistently lower activity. And notably, this pattern has remained essentially stable over the past three years – despite minor fluctuations – as workers continue to cluster their in-office time around the days that offer the most perceived value while preserving flexibility at the edges of the week.
At the same time, while the hybrid workweek remains firmly entrenched nationwide, its contours vary significantly across regions – and the data suggests that convenience is once again a key differentiator.
Across major markets, a clear pattern emerges: Cities with higher reliance on public transportation tend to see weaker Monday office attendance, while markets where more workers drive alone show stronger early-week presence. While industry mix and local office culture still matter, the data points to commute hassle as another factor potentially shaping Monday attendance.
New York City, excluded from the chart below as a clear outlier, stands as the exception that proves the rule. Despite nearly half of local employees relying on public transportation (48.7% according to the Census 2024 (ACS)), the city’s extensive and deeply embedded transit system appears to reduce perceived friction. In 2025, Mondays accounted for 18.4% of weekly office visits in the city, even with heavy transit usage.
The contrast highlights an important nuance: Where transit is fast, frequent, and integrated into daily routines, it can support office recovery, offering a potential roadmap for other dense urban markets seeking to rebuild early-week momentum.
Another powerful signal of today’s convenience-first mindset shows up in commute distances. Since 2019, the share of office visits generated by employees traveling less than five miles has steadily increased, largely at the expense of mid-distance commuters traveling 10 to 25 miles.
To be sure, this metric reflects total visits rather than unique visitors, so the shift may be driven by increased visit frequency among workers with shorter, simpler commutes rather than a change in where employees live overall. Still, the pattern is telling: Workers with shorter commutes appear more likely to generate repeat in-person visits, while longer and more complex commutes correspond with fewer trips. Over time, this dynamic could shape office leasing decisions, residential demand near employment centers – whether in urban cores or in nearby suburbs – and the geography of the workforce.
Taken together, the data paints a clear picture of the modern return-to-office landscape. Attendance is rising, but behavior is no longer driven by mandates alone. Instead, workers are making rational, convenience-based decisions about when coming in is worth the effort.
For cities, the implication is straightforward: Ease of access matters. Investments in transit reliability, last-mile connectivity, and housing near employment centers can all play a meaningful role in shaping how consistently people show up. For employers, too, the lesson is that the path back to the office runs through convenience, not just compulsion, as attendance gains are increasingly driven by how effectively organizations reduce friction and increase the perceived value of being on-site.
