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Despite persistent economic uncertainty, the retail sector continues to show signs of stability, though not without caveats. Store closures have put pressure on vacancies, while new construction remains limited. Yet, leasing momentum has persisted in prime locations, supported by resilient consumer demand and evolving tenant strategies. In this report, we explore the key takeaways across retail fundamentals and shifting consumer behavior, using foot traffic trends to illuminate where the market is headed next.
Overall consumer foot traffic was up year-over-year in the first half of 2025, pointing to the resilience of the U.S. consumer and the continued demand for brick-and-mortar channels. Car wash services received the most significant visit spike, followed by theaters, music venues, and attractions. However, out-of-home entertainment still has a way to go before reaching pre-COVID visit levels. Traffic to fitness chains also increased, an impressive accomplishment given the category's multi-year growth streak.
Meanwhile, visits lagged for discretionary categories, especially those carrying larger-ticket items, such as home improvement retailers and electronics stores. Traffic to gas stations and C-stores was also below 2024, perhaps due to the recent dip in domestic travel.
Source: Colliers, Placer.ai
Analyzing the top 10 chains from the Placer 100 Retail and Dining Index with the most significant YoY growth in visits per venue in H1 2025 highlights consumers' current preference for affordable brands. Chili's took the top spot – its ongoing value promotions are still resonating with diners and driving traffic to the chain in 2025. Crunch Fitness, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, and HomeGoods – each known for their affordability– also made the top 10 list.
Several chains catering to mid- and high-income consumers – including Nordstrom, Staples, LA Fitness, and Barnes & Noble – experienced significant growth in visits per venue. This suggests that while value matters, brands don't need the lowest prices to win customers. Consumers want confidence that they're getting their money's worth. Brands that effectively communicate their value proposition can thrive, no matter the final price point.
Source: Colliers, Placer.ai
The first half of 2025 painted a mixed picture for retail real estate. While well-located centers continued to see solid leasing activity and rent stability, a surge in store closures placed an upward pressure on vacancies across lower-tier assets. New construction remains muted amid high borrowing costs, with most developers focusing on repositioning existing spaces. Absorption and leasing activity reflected the broader theme of bifurcation—strong demand for value-driven and experiential retail on one end, and lingering weakness in legacy retail formats.
Despite ongoing macroeconomic noise – from inflationary pressures to tariff uncertainty – U.S. retail sales posted steady year-over-year growth across the first half of 2025.
Source: Colliers, Census Bureau
One of the most overlooked trends this year is who is driving the spending. A recent Fed working paper highlighted that when using granular, self-reported income data, the narrative shifts dramatically: much of the consumer "resilience" is being propped up by high-income households, while middle- and lower-income groups are pulling back. Retailers that cater to affluent demographics or can flex their value proposition are faring better than those stuck in the middle.
Retailers should note that underlying volume growth, which strips out inflation and tariff-influenced buying, has been consistently weaker than top-line figures suggest. Analysts warn that this could foreshadow softer performance in the second half of 2025, especially as inflation, interest rates, and tariff impacts start to ripple more clearly through the supply chain.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the retail sector is expected to remain stable but face growing macroeconomic pressures. Vacancy rates should hold steady, supported by a sharp 45% drop in new construction, though closures in freestanding formats (like pharmacies and discount stores) may cause localized upticks. Asking rents are projected to rise by about 2%, driven by limited supply and steady tenant demand. While net absorption may ease slightly, it is expected to remain positive across malls and open-air centers. Store-based retail sales are forecast to grow 1.5% in 2025, maintaining a 76% share of total retail sales. However, elevated inflation could weigh on consumer volume growth and leasing momentum in more price-sensitive segments.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
At Colliers, we’re proud to partner with Placer.ai, an industry-leading foot traffic analytics platform, to deliver more profound insights into the evolving retail landscape. As enterprise users of the tool, we’ve combined location intelligence with market fundamentals to uncover the trends shaping retail real estate in the first half of 2025.
Xiao Long Bao, or soup dumplings, have long been a staple at Chinese restaurants. Kids’ faces would light up as the bamboo steamer was uncovered and the big question swirled around how to eat it: take a small nibble and slowly savor the soup first or let it cool and eat in one big bite? Both options were enormously satisfying, and now the cat is out of the bag and xiao long bao have taken the world by storm.
Din Tai Fung began selling dumplings in 1978 in Taipei, Taiwan. Over the years, one of the Hong Kong branches has become a 5-time Michelin Star winner, and the chain has now expanded to 13 countries with 180 locations around the world. A recent Restaurant Business Online article revealed that “Din Tai Fung’s per-restaurant average of $27.4 million is nearly two times higher than the next closest brand, an astounding feat for a casual-dining chain.” The next 4 highest AUV restaurants are all steakhouses. The article continues with saying that “to generate unit volumes of that magnitude, a restaurant generally has to do three things: It has to be big, customers have to spend a decent amount, and it has to be busy. Din Tai Fung checks all three of those boxes.”
Go to any Din Tai Fung and you will often see lines snaking out the door, even in between meal times, like at 2pm. Their enormous popularity also has a great upside for the malls in which they reside. There’s a wait? No problem, one can shop while waiting to be called.
In the past year, malls with a Din Tai Fung consistently outperformed the indoor mall and open-air lifestyle center index. Even in some months where mall traffic was down year-over-year, the malls with a Din Tai Fung were often positive.
There are two likely explanations for these trends: 1) that Din Tai Fung is simply good at choosing its locations, placing its restaurants in centers that are already bustling and with an audience or trade area receptive to its offering, or 2) that Din Tai Fung is helping to drive this mall traffic. It may also be a bit of both, with a symbiotic relationship occurring.
Analyzing a location that has had a recent Din Tai Fung opening, namely Santa Monica Place in Southern California reveals that the addition of the restaurant also helps boost dwell time and evening visits.
This makes sense, as the opening of large restaurants in a shopping center increases one of the “occasions” for visiting, namely dinner. In particular, the timeframe after 7 PM has also expanded in popularity. Concurrently, dwell time at the mall has risen with the opening of this new restaurant, from an average of 45 minutes to now 58 minutes.
Din Tai Fung’s first US location was on Baldwin Ave in Arcadia, CA which opened in 2000. Before its worldwide expansion, it was already a local San Gabriel Valley gem. Looking at Placer data for this stand-alone restaurant in an outdoor center, we see that it was already showing signs of greater visits per square foot than many other peer establishments in the neighborhood, including other Chinese restaurants. After flying a bit under the radar for over a dozen years, a flagship restaurant opened at Santa Anita mall across the way in 2016. The original Arcadia location eventually closed in late July 2020, but since then many others have popped open all over the US.
Din Tai Fung has many things going for it, particularly as Asian food and culture has been exploding in popularity in the United States. One San Francisco Chronicle article talks about how two SF malls, Japantown and Stonestown Galleria, are defying the mall doom loop by “capturing the zeitgeist by offering unique Japanese, Korean, and Chinese pop culture.” In addition to providing tasty food, Din Tai Fung is also in the unique position of featuring a lot of shareables at affordable price points.
While steak dinners might be more for business or special occasion meals, Din Tai Fung is elevated enough to be a treat, but a lesser hit on the wallet. As dining becomes more experiential, diners enjoy being able to try a variety of main and side dishes. Locations allow you to peek in on the action, with the chefs painstakingly pleating the soup dumplings to exacting proportions of 18 folds and 21 grams. As someone who has been frequenting Din Tai Fung since its first US location opened as a stand-alone restaurant in Arcadia, as well as 11 of the US locations and the original in Taiwan, the company also maintains extremely high standards and consistent execution.
Ultimately, Din Tai Fung's success suggests that a combination of operational excellence and experiential dining can create a destination brand that elevates the entire ecosystem around it.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Following a period of caution in May and June, U.S. industrial manufacturing facilities saw a significant surge of activity in July 2025. As we've noted previously, many manufacturers experienced an increase in visits during March and April to build inventory ahead of initial tariff implementation dates, followed by a normalization period in May and June as businesses adopted a "wait-and-see" approach. However, with the hard deadline of August 1st for new, widespread tariffs, July was marked by a dramatic uptick in visits from both employees and logistics partners as companies made a last-ditch effort to maximize output and shipments.
This flurry of activity was particularly intense in highly interconnected sectors like auto manufacturing, industrial machinery, and metals processing, all of which are vulnerable to tariffs on imported raw materials and components. Metals processing plants, for example, ramped up operations to convert as much raw steel and aluminum as possible before their costs increased. In turn, auto and industrial machinery manufacturers accelerated their own production lines, pulling in vast quantities of both processed metals and specialized foreign parts to build up inventory before the new duties could disrupt their supply chains.
This final pre-tariff rush was evident in our data: the increase in employee visits to factories signaled that production lines were running at high capacity, while a sharp rise in visits from logistics partners – like truckers and other carriers – indicated a massive push to move finished goods and components through the supply chain before the August 1st implementation date.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
In a challenging macroeconomic environment, full-service restaurants (FSRs) face mounting pressure to attract and retain diners. Recent foot traffic data underscores a growing divide among top FSR players:
Brinker International (EAT), parent to Chili’s Grill & Bar and Maggiano’s Little Italy, continued its winning streak with double-digit YoY visit growth in Q2.
Texas Roadhouse’s portfolio (TXRH), featuring its flagship steakhouse, Bubba-33, and Jaggers, saw moderate (+4.1%) YoY overall visit gains and slightly increased same-store visits, reflecting steady performance at existing sites amid ongoing expansion.
Bloomin’ Brands (Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar) experienced YoY foot traffic declines. While Bloomin’ narrowed its YoY visit gap in Q2, it remains squeezed between the aggressive value messaging of chains like Chili’s and the focused execution of competitors like Texas Roadhouse.
What lies behind Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse’s standout success in 2025?
Chili’s visits began to surge in Q2 2024 – the result of a turnaround plan executed by CEO Kevin Hochman after he took the helm in 2022. By reducing and refining the menu, boosting efficiency, and focusing on craveable yet affordable dishes, Chili’s cut costs and funneled the savings into compelling promotions. The company also worked to make its brand more fun and buzzworthy, setting the stage for viral TikTok moments amplified by well-coordinated influencer campaigns. Meanwhile, menu innovations – most notably the Big Smash Burger, added to the company’s “3 for Me” value menu in April 2024 – drove a lasting traffic boost that persisted into 2025 as the chain continued updating its value meal.
Texas Roadhouse, by contrast, has pursued steady expansion over the past several years. Like Chili’s, it relies on a focused, core menu to maintain quality and efficiency, but unlike Chili’s it rarely changes up its offerings, sticking instead to consistently excelling at what it does best. The steakhouse chain also famously forgoes nationwide advertising in favor of local engagement and a strong reputation for everyday value. Although per-location visit growth at Texas Roadhouse softened slightly in early 2025 – perhaps reflecting heightened consumer attention to limited-time offers and special promotions – the steakhouse continues to grow its footprint while limiting cannibalization.
Despite following different paths to growth, Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse have both made focused menus a core tenet of their strategies. And with menu simplification proving effective in today’s crowded market, it is no surprise that Bloomin’ Brands has recently outlined its own plans to cut costs and boost consistency by trimming menus – particularly at Outback Steakhouse.
Ultimately, foot traffic translates into market share, and both Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse have grown their portions of the overall FSR visit pie. While Texas Roadhouse has steadily augmented its reach over several years, Chili’s saw a sharp surge in H1 2025, propelled by its aggressive value-driven initiatives.
The varied performances of Brinker, Texas Roadhouse, and Bloomin’ Brands underscore the critical need for a clear, disciplined strategy in today’s competitive casual dining sector. And Chili's and Texas Roadhouse’s successes demonstrate how menu simplicity and operational efficiency can fuel distinct avenues to success.
As these brands head into the second half of 2025, several questions loom large for executives and investors:
The coming months will test whether Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse can maintain their winning formulas – and whether Bloomin’ Brands can course-correct through targeted menu reductions and promotional recalibrations.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Health and wellness continue to be a major priority for most Americans, and the fitness industry continues to reap the benefits. This segment has ample room for all kinds of gym-goers, from luxury athletic chains like Life Time to more accessible and affordable options like Planet Fitness. We took a look at visitation patterns to these two chains in Q2 2025 to understand their recent performance
Upscale gym chain Life Time has evolved into a wellness powerhouse over the years, offering its members access to fitness classes, luxury amenities, and even co-working and residential spaces.
Though the chain experienced impressive visit growth in 2024, YoY visits slowed slightly in 2025 – perhaps owing in part to the difficult comparison to a particularly strong 2024. Still, visit gaps were fairly minimal – Q2 2025 visits were just -0.6% lower than in Q2 2024, and average visits per location were just -1.5% lower year-over-year.
And while visits may have moderated somewhat in the first half of the year, Life Time seems confident about its market position, with several new locations in the pipeline for 2025 and 2026.
While Life Time caters to gym-goers looking for a luxury wellness experience, Planet Fitness offers easily accessible, judgment-free fitness zones that welcomes all kinds of gym-goers. This model, characterized by its low monthly fees and basic amenities, aims to appeal to a broad consumer base.
And foot traffic trends suggest that this model is not just working, it’s thriving: YoY visits were elevated by 10.1% in Q2 2025, and average visits per location grew by 6.2% in the same period. This growth comes on the heels of its elevated visits throughout H2 2024 – a promising sign for the chain as it begins a major expansion push.
A closer look at visit data highlights that visit frequency at Life Time is consistently higher than at Planet Fitness. Throughout 2025, visitors to Planet Fitness visited an average of 4.1 to 4.4 times a month, while visitors to Life Time visit an average of 5.7 to 6.2 times a month.
This reflects the two brands’ different models: Life Time aims to be a true one-stop-shop for wellness, combining co-working spaces and residential living with its fitness offerings, elements that encourage members to visit more frequently. Meanwhile, Planet Fitness’s focus on affordability and a straightforward gym-going experience attracts budget-conscious gym-goers whose visits, while slightly less frequent, align with their demand for simple, convenient fitness.
Life Time and Planet Fitness occupy two very different ends of the fitness and wellness spectrum – and both are proving that there’s room for variety in the gym segment.
How might the second half of the year look for these two chains?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven fitness insights.
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First Watch, Denny's, IHOP, and Applebee's improved their visitation metrics in Q2 2025 relative to Q1 2025.
First Watch increased its total visits by 13.7% year-over-year, fueled both by its ongoing expansion and by a notable 4.1% increase in average visits per location, signaling significant room for continued growth.
In contrast to First Watch's expansion, Denny's has been closing stores. Its smaller footprint led to a 4.9% dip in overall visits, but its remaining restaurants became significantly busier, with average visits per location up 5.1% year-over-year – suggesting that loyal customers are consolidating at its remaining stores
Meanwhile, Dine brands IHOP and Applebee's also improved their visitation trends. IHOP narrowed its overall visits and average visits per location declines while Applebee's turned its traffic dips into gains in Q2, with overall visits up 2.7% YoY and average visits per venue up 5.5% – perhaps thanks to Dine's marketing efforts around the brand.
Overall, the strong Q2 performance of these four chains highlights the resilience of the value-driven casual dining sector – and may indicate that consumers may be 'trading down' from more expensive restaurants while still seeking a sit-down experience.
While First Watch caters to a wealthier clientele (with median HHI of $88.7K compared to the nationwide baseline of $79.6K), it's the chains’ serving of lower-income areas – Applebee's, Denny's, and IHOP – that attract a higher share of frequent monthly visitors. This suggests that loyalty is not dictated by disposable income; instead, brands that offer reliability and affordability can become a go-to option for their customers, driving high visit frequency even in times of macroeconomic uncertainty.
The strong Q2 performance of these chains highlights the casual dining sector's resilience and reveals two distinct paths to success in today's economy. While First Watch thrives on aggressive expansion into higher-income areas, brands like Denny's and Applebee's prove that cultivating deep loyalty among a value-conscious base through affordability and optimization is an equally powerful and sustainable strategy.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Professional sports are big business – the industry is valued at nearly $1 billion in the United States alone. And beyond the economic impact of actual ticket sales and stadium and sponsorship gains, major sporting events can have significant impacts on local industries such as tourism, dining, and hospitality. Cities hosting sports events tend to see influxes of visitors who boost tourism, spend money at restaurants and hotels, and create ripple effects that benefit entire local economies.
The 2024 Copa América, typically held in South America but hosted in the United States this year, provides a prime example of the effect sports tourism can have on local economies. The games kicked off in Atlanta, Georgia on June 20th, 2024, before moving on to other host cities and boosting hospitality traffic along the way.
This white paper dives into the data to see how the games impacted hotel visits in cities across America – and especially in Atlanta. The report uncovers the hotel tiers and brands that saw the largest visit boosts and explores visitor demographics to better understand the audiences drawn to the event.
The Copa América took place in June and July 2024, with fourteen cities – mainly across the Sunbelt – hosting games. Thousands of fans attended each event, driving up demand in local hotel markets.
Arlington, TX, saw the largest hotel visit bump during the week it hosted the games, with hospitality traffic up 23.0% compared to the metro area's weekly January to September 2024 visit average. Orlando, FL, too, enjoyed a significant visit spike (22.1%), followed by Kansas City, KS-MO (17.4%).
The Atlanta metropolitan area, for its part, also saw a significant 11.0% increase in hotel visits during its hosting week compared to the city’s weekly visit average.
The Copa América games attracted fans from across the country – from as far away as Washington State and New Hampshire, as well as from neighboring states like Florida. On the day the tournament began, 26.1% of the domestic visitors to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium came from over 250 miles away, up from an average of 19.7% during the rest of the year (January to September 2024). These out-of-towners likely had a significant impact on Atlanta’s local economy – through spending on accommodations, dining, and entertainment.
During the week of the Copa América game, all of the analyzed hotel types in Atlanta received a visit bump. And while some of these visits were likely unrelated to the game, the massive scale of the event means that a significant share of the visit growth was likely driven by out-of-town soccer fans. Analyzing these patterns Atlanta can provide valuable insights for hospitality stakeholders looking to attract attendees of major sporting events.
Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest boost during the week of the event, with visits 20.8% higher than the weekly visit average between January and September 2024. Midscale and Upscale hotels also experienced significant visit increases of 15.8% and 14.0%, respectively. During the same period, visits to Luxury hotels grew by 9.0% and Economy Hotel visits rose by 7.0% compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average. Meanwhile Upper Upscale Hotels received the smallest boost, with visits up by 2.9%.
Judging by these travel patterns, it appears that most Copa América spectators prefer to stay at Midscale, Upper Midscale, or Upscale hotels during the trip.
While Upper Midscale Hotels in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta metro area generally experienced the biggest visit boost during the Copa América, visit performance varied somewhat from chain to chain. TownePlace Suites and Fairfield Inn, both Upper Midscale Marriott properties, saw increases of 27.5% and 25.3%, respectively, compared to their January to September 2024 weekly averages. Other chains in the tier also enjoyed visit boosts – visits to Home2 Suites by Hilton and Hampton Inn – both Hilton chains – jumped by 17.3% and 17.4%, respectively, during the same period.
The popularity of these Upper Midscale hotels may be driven by a multitude of factors. Some, like TownePlace Suites and Home2 Suites offer kitchenettes, something that may appeal to visitors looking to save by preparing their own meals. Others, such as Fairfield Inn and Hampton Inn which offer more locations closer to the stadium may attract visitors that prioritize convenience.
Layering the STI: PopStats dataset onto Placer.ai’s captured market can provide insights into Copa América attendees by revealing the demographic attributes of census block groups (CBGs) contributing visitors to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The CBGs feeding visitors to a chain or venue, weighted to reflect the share of visitors from each one, are collectively referred to as the business’ captured market.)
During the Copa América opener,Mercedes-Benz Stadium drew visitors from CBGs with a median household income (HHI) of $90.0K – well above the national median of $76.1K and similar to the median HHI during the Taylor Swift concert ($90.6K). The stadium’s trade area median HHI was even higher during the Super Bowl ($117.9K).
This visitor profile suggests that Copa América attendees – along with guests of other major cultural and sporting events – often have the means to splurge on comfortable, mid-range hotels for their stays. As Atlanta gears up to host the College Football National Championship in January 2025, the 62nd Super Bowl in February 2028, and the MLB All Star Game in July 2025, along with a host of smaller-scale events – the city can draw on historical data from past events, including the Copa América, to better understand the needs and preferences of stadium visitors and plan accordingly.
And although Upper Upscale hotels generally experienced relatively subdued growth during the Atlanta Copa América opener, some Upper Upscale properties – including Marriott’s Autograph Collection Twelve Downtown, saw visits jump. Visits to the hotel were up 19.7% during the week of the Copa América compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average.
The Twelve Downtown has become a popular lodging choice for major events in the city, likely due to its proximity to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The hotel is located just over a mile away from the stadium). During the Super Bowl LIII five years ago, the Twelve Downtown drew 27.9% more visits than its weekly average for January to September 2019. And during the 2023 Taylor Swift concert, the hotel saw a 25.5% visit bump.
A closer look at the median HHI of the hotel’s captured market during the three periods reveals that, despite each event attracting visitors from varying income brackets, the median HHI of visitors to the Twelve Downtown remained stable. Visitors to the hotel between January and September 2024 came from trade areas where the median HHI was $76.2K, not far off from the median HHI during the 2019 Super Bowl ($75.4K), Taylor Swift’s 2023 concert ($80.6K) and the Copa América ($76.7K).
This stability suggests that, regardless of the event, hotels attract a specific visitor base. And understanding the similarities within the demographic profiles of likely hotel visitors during different events will be key for hotels at all levels seeking to capitalize on the economic opportunities created by major local events.
The Mountain region offers employment opportunities, affordable housing, outdoors recreation, and a relatively low cost of living – which could explain why these states are emerging as major domestic migration hubs. Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming in particular have consistently attracted inbound domestic migration in recent years, as Americans continue leaving higher density regions in search of greener – and calmer – pastures.
This report uses various datasets from the Placer.ai Migration Trends Report to analyze domestic migration to Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming. Where are people coming from? And how is recent migration impacting local population centers in these states? Keep reading to find out.
Idaho emerged as a domestic migration hotspot over the pandemic, as many Americans freed from the obligation of in-person work relocated to the Gem State. Between June 2020 and June 2024, Idaho saw positive net migration of 4.7%, more than any other state in the U.S. (This metric measures the number of people moving to a state minus the number of people leaving – expressed as a percentage of the state’s total population.) And between 2023 and 2024, Idaho remained the nation’s top domestic migration performer (see map above).
Diving into the data reveals that though people moved to Idaho from across the U.S., most of Idaho’s influx over the past four years came from neighboring West Coast and Mountain States – especially California. Former residents of the Golden State accounted for a whopping 58.1% of inbound migrants to Idaho over the analyzed period.
California’s position as the top feeder of relocators to Idaho during the analyzed period may come as no surprise, given the state’s recent population outflow and the many former California residents who have settled in the Mountain region. But Washington, Oregon, and Nevada – where inbound and outbound migration remained relatively even in recent years – have also been seeing shifts to Idaho.
Idaho has a lower tax burden, robust employment opportunities, and greater overall affordability than its top four feeder states. So some of the recent relocators likely moved to the Gem State to enjoy better economic opportunities while staying relatively close to their states of origin. And these recent Idahoans may be reshaping Idaho’s demographic and economic landscape in the process.
Most inbound migration to Idaho is concentrated in the state’s metro areas, with Boise – the capital of Idaho and the major city closest to California – consistently absorbing the highest share of net inbound migration.
But recently, other CBSAs have emerged as key destinations for new Idahoans. The location of two emerging domestic relocation hubs in particular suggests that many new Idaho residents may be looking to stay close to their areas of origin: Coeur d’Alene, located near the border with Washington, attracts its largest contingent of new residents from the Spokane, WA metro area, while Twin Falls’ top feeder area is the Elko CBSA in northern Nevada.
Twin Falls in southern Idaho has a strong job market – and has received a substantial share of inbound domestic migration over the past three years. Coeur d’Alene is also flush with economic opportunities, and after declining steadily for several years, the share of relocators heading to the metro area increased to 20.7% between June 2023 and 2024.
The chart above also reveals that the share of inbound migration heading to Boise declined slightly between June 2023 and June 2024 – following a period of consistent growth between June 2020 and June 2023 – even as the share of migration to Coeur d’Alene ballooned. This may mean that, although the state’s largest metro area may have reached its saturation point, other areas in the state are still primed to receive inbound migration.
While Nevada is losing some of its population to nearby Idaho, the Silver State is also gaining new residents of its own: Between September 2020 and September 2024, the Silver State experienced positive net migration of 3.3%. And the data indicates that many new Nevadans are choosing to settle in the state's rapidly growing suburban centers.
Zooming into the Las Vegas-Henderson CBSA reveals that much of the growth is concentrated outside the main city of Las Vegas. Instead, the more suburban cities of Enterprise, Henderson, and North Las Vegas received the largest migration bump – with Henderson and North Las Vegas’ population now surpassing that of Reno. And while year-over-year migration trends suggest that the growth is beginning to stabilize, Enterprise and Henderson are still growing significantly faster than the CBSA as a whole – indicating that the suburbs continue to draw Nevada newcomers.
Analyzing the inbound domestic migration to Enterprise – one of the fastest growing areas in the country – may shed light on the aspects of suburban Las Vegas that are driving population growth.
Many new Enterprise residents moved to the city from elsewhere in Nevada, while most out-of-state newcomers came from California or Hawaii – mirroring the migration patterns for Nevada as a whole. And according to the Niche Neighborhood Grades dataset, Enterprise is a good fit for retirees and young professionals alike, with the city ranking higher than its feeder areas with regard to a range of factors – from jobs and commute to weather.
Like with migration to the rest of the Mountain region, domestic migration to Nevada – particularly to suburban areas like Enterprise and Henderson – is likely driven by newcomers looking for more economic opportunities along with higher quality of life.
Wyoming – currently the least populous state in the country – is another Mountain region state where inbound migration is driving up the population numbers. But in the Cowboy State, urban areas – as opposed to suburban ones – seem to be the main magnets for population growth.
The Cheyenne, Wyoming CBSA – home to Wyoming’s capital – is the largest metro area in the state. And analyzing the CBSA’s population trends over the past six years reveals a recent shift in Wyoming’s inbound migration patterns.
Cheyenne’s population is mostly suburban, and the CBSA’s suburban areas remain popular with newcomers – suburban Cheyenne has also seen steady population growth since January 2018. But when the CBSA became a popular relocation destination over the pandemic, many newcomers to the Cheyenne region chose to move to metro area’s more rural areas: By April 2022, Cheyenne’s rural population had jumped by 10.8% compared to a January 2018 baseline, compared to a 5.9% and 3.9% increase in the CBSA’s suburban and urban populations, respectively.
As the country opened back up, however, the number of rural Cheyenne residents dropped back down – and by September 2024, Cheyenne’s rural population was only 0.1% bigger than it had been in January 2018. The population growth in suburban Cheyenne also slowed down, with the September 2024 suburban population numbers more or less on par with the April 2022 figures.
Now, Cheyenne’s urban areas have overtaken both rural and suburban areas in terms of population growth: In September 2024, Cheyenne’s urban population was 9.4% bigger than in January 2018, compared to 5.2% and 0.1% growth for the suburban and urban areas, respectively.
Despite the growth in Cheyenne’s urban population, the suburbs still remain the most populous – as of September 2024, 71.2% of the CBSA’s population resided in suburban areas. But the continued growth of Cheyenne’s urban population may reflect a rising demand among Wyomingites for amenities and economic opportunities unavailable elsewhere in the state, mirroring the trend in Idaho’s urban CBSAs such as Boise and Coeur d'Alene.
Cheyenne’s urban growth could be partially due to shifts in migration patterns. At the height of the pandemic, most newcomers to Cheyenne were coming from out of state, perhaps drawn by the quiet and spaciousness of rural Wyoming. But since 2022, the share of migration to Cheyenne from within Wyoming has grown – coinciding with the population increase in its urban areas and suggesting that Cheyenne's amenities are attracting more residents statewide.
This growing intra-state migration to Cheyenne’s urban areas underscores the city’s evolving role as a hub within Wyoming, appealing not just to newcomers from outside the state but increasingly to Wyoming residents seeking the benefits of a more urban lifestyle relative to the rest of the state.
The Mountain States are solidifying their status as key migration hubs in the U.S., driven by economic opportunities, affordable living, and lifestyle appeal. Between September 2023 and September 2024, Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming all experienced significant population growth due to inbound domestic migration. In Idaho, newcomers from neighboring states are boosting the population of the Gem State’s major metro areas. Meanwhile the Cheyenne, Wyoming, CBSA is emerging as a focal point for intra-state migration, with urban Cheyenne seeing particularly pronounced growth. And in Nevada, suburban hubs like Henderson and Enterprise are welcoming new arrivals seeking a balance of suburban comfort and economic potential. With the cost of living continuing to increase – and the Mountain region offering something for everyone through its various states – Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming are likely to remain top migration destinations in 2025 and beyond.
2024 has been another challenging year for retailers. Still-high prices and an uncertain economic climate led many shoppers to trade down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences. Value took center stage, as cautious consumers sought to stretch their dollars as far as possible.
But price wasn’t the only factor driving consumer behavior in 2024. This past year saw the rise of a variety of retail and dining trends, some seemingly at odds with one another. Shoppers curbed discretionary spending, but made room in their budgets for “essential non-essentials” like gym memberships and other wellness offerings. Consumers placed a high premium on speed and convenience, while at the same time demonstrating a willingness to go out of their way for quality or value finds. And even amidst concern about the economy, shoppers were ready to pony up for specialty items, legacy brands, and fun experiences – as long as they didn’t break the bank.
How did these currents – likely to continue shaping the retail landscape into 2025 – impact leading brands and categories? We dove into the data to find out.
Bifurcation has emerged as a foundational principle in retail over the past few years: Consumers are increasingly gravitating toward either luxury or value offerings and away from the ‘middle.’ Add extended economic uncertainty along with rapid expansions and product diversification from top value-oriented retailers, and you have an explosion of visits in the value lane.
But we are seeing a ceiling to that growth – especially in the discount & dollar store space. Throughout 2023 and the first part of 2024, visits to discount & dollar stores increased steadily. But no category can sustain uninterrupted visit growth forever. Since April 2024, year–over-year (YoY) foot traffic to the segment has begun to slow, with September 2024 showing just a modest 0.8% YoY visit increase.
Discount & dollar stores, which attract lower-income shoppers compared to both grocery stores and superstores, have also begun lagging behind these segments in visit-per-location growth. In Q3, the average number of visits to each discount and dollar store location remained essentially flat compared to 2023 (+0.2%), while visits per location to superstores and grocery stores grew by 2.8% and 1.0%, respectively. As 2024 draws to a close, it is the latter segments, which appeal to shoppers with incomes closer to the nationwide median of $76.1K, which are seeing better YoY performance.
The deceleration doesn’t mean that discount retailers are facing existential risk – discount & dollar stores are still extremely strong and well-positioned with focused offerings that resonate with consumers. The visitation data does suggest, however, that future growth may need to focus on initiatives other large-scale fleet expansions. Some of these efforts will involve moving upmarket (see pOpShelf), some will focus on fleet optimization, and others may include new offerings and channels.
Return of the middle anyone?
Still, in an environment where consumers have been facing the compounded effects of rising prices, value remains paramount for many shoppers. And brands that have found ways to let customers have their cake and eat it too – enjoy specialty offerings and elevated experiences without breaking the bank – have emerged as major visit winners this year.
Trader Joe’s, in particular, has stood out as one of the leading retail brands for innovative value in 2024, a trend that is expected to continue into 2025.
Trader Joe’s dedicated fan base is positively addicted to the chain’s broad range of high-quality specialty items. But by maintaining a much higher private label mix than most grocers – approximately 80%, compared to an industry average of 25% to 30% – the retailer is also able to keep its pricing competitive. Trader Joe’s cultivates consumer excitement by constantly innovating its product line – there are even websites dedicated to showcasing the chain’s new offerings each season. In turn, Trader Joe’s enjoys much higher visits per square foot than the rest of the grocery category: Over the past twelve months, Trader Joe’s drew a median 56 visits per square foot – compared to 23 for H-E-B, the second-strongest performer.
Casual dining chain Chili’s has also been a standout on the disruptive value front this past year – offering consumers a full-service dining experience at a quick-service price point.
Chili’s launched its Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, adding the item to its popular ‘3 for Me’ offering, which includes an appetizer, entrée, and drink for just $10.99 – lower than than the average ticket at many quick-service restaurant chains. The innovative promotion, which has been further expanded since, continues to drive impressive visitation trends. With food-away-from-home inflation continuing to decelerate, this strategy of offering deep discounts is likely to continue to be a key story in 2025.
Convenience is king, right?
Well, probably not. If convenience truly were king, visitors would orient themselves to making fewer, longer visits to retailers – to minimize the inconvenience of frequent grocery trips and spend less time on the road. But analyzing the data suggests that, while consumers may want to save time, it is not always their chief concern.
Looking at the superstore and grocery segments (among others) reveals that the proportion of visitors spending under 30 minutes at the grocery store is actually increasing – from 73.3% in Q3 2019 to 76.6% in Q3 2024. This indicates that shoppers are increasingly willing to make shorter trips to the store to pick up just a few items.
At the same time, more consumers than ever are willing to travel farther to visit specialty grocery chains in the search of specific products that make the visit worthwhile.
Cross visitation between chains is also increasing – suggesting that shoppers are willing to make multiple trips to find the products they want – at the right price point. Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, the share of traditional grocery store visitors who also visited a Costco at least three times during the quarter grew across chains.
Does this mean convenience doesn’t matter? Of course not. Does it indicate that value, quality and a love of specific products are becoming just as, if not more, important to shoppers? Yes.
The implications here are very significant. If consumers are willing to go out of their way for the right products at the right price points – even at the expense of convenience – then the retailers able to leverage these ‘visit drivers’ will be best positioned to grow their reach considerably. The willingness of consumers to forego convenience considerations when the incentives are right also reinforces the ever-growing importance of the in-store experience.
So while convenience may still be within the royal family, the role of king is up for grabs.
Convenience may not be everything, but the drive for quicker service has emerged as more important than ever in the restaurant space. Diners want their fast food… well, as fast as possible. And to meet this demand, quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and fast-casual chains have been integrating more technology into their operations. Chipotle has been a leader in this regard, unveiling the “Autocado” robot at a Huntington Beach, California location last month. The robot can peel, pit, and chop avocados in record time, a major benefit for the Tex-Mex chain.
And the Autocado seems to be paying off. The Huntington Beach location drew 10.0% more visits compared to the average Chipotle location in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro area in Q3 2024. Visitors are visiting more frequently and getting their food more quickly – 43.9% of visits at this location lasted 10 minutes or less, compared to 37.5% at other stores in the CBSA.
Are diners flocking to this Chipotle location to watch the future of avocado chopping in action, or are they enticed by shorter wait times? Time will tell. But with workers able to focus on other aspects of food preparation and customer service, the innovation appears to be resonating with diners.
McDonald’s, too, has leaned into new technologies to streamline its service. The chain debuted its first (almost) fully automated, takeaway-only restaurant in White Settlement, TX in 2022 – where orders are placed at kiosks or on app, and then delivered to customers by robots. (The food is still prepared by humans.) Unsurprisingly, the restaurant drives faster visits than other local McDonald’s locations – in Q3 2023, 79.7% of visits to the chain lasted less than 10 minutes, compared to 68.5% for other McDonald’s in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA. But crucially, the automated location is also busier than other area McDonald’s, garnering 16.8% more visits in Q3 than the chain’s CBSA-wide average. And the location draws a higher share of late-night visits than other area McDonald’s – customers on the hunt for a late-night snack might be drawn to a restaurant that offers quick, interaction-free service.
Changing store formats is another key trend shaping retail in 2024. Whether by reducing box sizes to cut costs, make stores more accessible, or serve smaller growth markets – or by going big with one-stop shops, retailers are reimagining store design. And the moves are resonating with consumers, driving visits while at the same improving efficiency.
Macy’s, Inc. is one retailer that is leading the small-format charge this year. In February 2024, Macy’s announced its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround plan including the downsizing of its traditional eponymous department store fleet and a pivot towards smaller-format Macy’s locations. Macy’s has also continued to expand its highly-curated, small-format Bloomie’s concept, which features a mix of established and trendy pop-up brands tailored to local preferences.
And the data shows that this shift towards small format may be helping Macy’s drive visits with more accessible and targeted offerings that consumers can enjoy as they go about their daily routines: In Q3 2024, Macy’s small-format stores drew a higher share of weekday visitors and of local customers (i.e. those coming from less than seven miles away) than Macy’s traditional stores.
Small-format stores are also making inroads in the home improvement category. The past few years have seen consumers across the U.S. migrating to smaller suburban and rural markets – and retailers like Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware are harnessing their small-format advantage to accommodate these customers while keeping costs low.
Harbor Freight tools and Ace Hardware’s trade areas have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S., many of which have populations under 200K. And while it can be difficult to justify opening a Home Depot or Lowe’s in these hubs – both chains average more than 100,000 square feet per store – Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware’s smaller boxes, generally under 20,000 square feet, are a perfect fit.
This has allowed both chains to tap into the smaller markets which are attracting growing shares of the population. And so while Home Depot and Lowe’s have seen moderate visits declines on a YoY basis, Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware have seen consistent YoY visit boosts since Q1 2024 – outperforming the wider category since early 2023.
Are smaller stores a better bet across the board? At the end of the day, the success of smaller-format stores depends largely on the category. For retail segments that have seen visit trends slow since the pandemic – home furnishings and consumer electronics, for example – smaller-format stores offer brands a more economical way to serve their customers. Retailers have also used smaller-format stores to better curate their merchandise assortments for their most loyal customers, helping to drive improved visit frequency.
That said, a handful of retailers, such as Hy-Vee, have recently bucked the trend of smaller-format stores. These large-format stores are often designed as destination locations – Hy-Vee’s larger-format locations usually offer a full suite of amenities beyond groceries, such as a food hall, eyewear kiosk, beauty department, and candy shop. Rather than focusing on smaller markets, these stores aim to attract visitors from surrounding areas.
Visit data for Hy-Vee’s large-format store in Gretna, Nebraska indicates that this location sees a higher percentage of weekend visits than other area locations – 37.7% compared to 33.1% for the chain’s Omaha CBSA average – as well as more visits lasting over 30 minutes (32.9% compared to 21.9% for the metro area as a whole). For these shoppers, large-format, one-stop shops offer a convenient – and perhaps more exciting – alternative to traditionally sized grocery stores. The success of the large-format stores is another sign that though convenience isn’t everything in 2024, it certainly resonates – especially when paired with added-value offerings.
Many retail brands have entrenched themselves in American culture and become an extension of consumers' identities. And while some of these previously ubiquitous brands have disappeared over the years as the retail industry evolved, others have transformed to keep pace with changing consumer needs – and some have even come back from the brink of extinction. And the quest for value notwithstanding, 2024 has also seen the resurgence of many of these (decidedly non-off-price) legacy brands.
In apparel specifically, Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch – two brands that dominated the cultural zeitgeist of the 1990s and early 2000s before seeing their popularity decline somewhat in the late aughts and 2010s – may be staging a comeback. Bed Bath & Beyond, a leader in the home goods category, is also making a play at returning to physical retail through partnerships.
Anthropologie, another legacy player in women’s fashion and home goods, is also on the rise. Anthropologie’s distinctive aesthetic resonates deeply with consumers – especially women millennials aged 30 to 45. And by capturing the hearts of its customers, the retailer stands as a beacon for retailers that can hedge against promotional activity and still drive foot traffic growth.
And visits to the chain have been rising steadily. In Q4 2023, the chain experienced a bigger holiday season foot traffic spike than pre-pandemic, drawing more overall visits than in Q4 2019. And in Q3 2024, visits were higher than in Q3 2023.
And speaking of the 35 to 40 set – the generation that all retailers are courting? Millennials. Does that sound familiar? Yes, because this is the same generational cohort that retailers tried to target a decade ago. As millennials have aged into the family-formation stage of life, their retail needs have evolved, and the industry is now primed to meet them.
From the revival of nostalgic brands like the Limited Too launch at Kohl’s to warehouse clubs expanding memberships to younger consumers as they move to suburban and rural communities, there are myriad examples of retailers reaching out to this cohort. And Sam’s Club offers a prime example of this trend.
Over the past few years, millennials and Gen-Zers have emerged as major drivers of membership growth at Sam’s Club, drawn to the retailer’s value offerings and digital upgrades – like the club’s Scan & Go technology. Over the same period, Sam’s Club has grown the share of “Singles and Starters” households in its captured market from 6% above the national benchmark in Q3 2019 to 15% in Q3 2024. And with plans to involve customers in co-creating products for its private-label brand, Sam’s Club may continue to grow its market share among this value-conscious – but also discerning and optimistic – demographic.
Millennials are also now old enough to wax nostalgic about their youth – and brands are paying attention. This summer, Taco Bell leaned into nostalgia with a promotion bringing back iconic menu items from the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s – all priced under $3. The promotion, which soft-launched at three Southern California locations in August, was so successful that the company is now offering the specials nationwide. The three locations that trialed the “Decades Menu” saw significant boosts in visits during the promotional period compared to their daily averages for August. And people came from far and wide to sample the offerings – with a higher proportion of visitors traveling over seven miles to reach the stores while the items were available.
Hot on the heels of a tumultuous 2023, 2024’s retail environment has certainly kept retailers on their toes. While embracing innovative value has helped some chains thrive, other previously ascendant value segments, including discount & dollar stores, may have reached their growth ceilings. Consumers clearly care about convenience – but are willing to make multiple grocery stops to find what they need. At the same time, legacy brands are plotting their comeback, while others are harnessing the power of nostalgia to drive millennials – and other consumers – through their doors.
