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After a period of robust growth following COVID, the eatertainment sector has slowed. Rising prices and economic uncertainty have led many consumers to tighten their budgets, cutting back on discretionary activities. But Q2 2025 data points to an emerging trend that could reshape the industry's trajectory: unlimited-play subscription models that drive repeat visits to major chains.
Eatertainment’s leading brands have followed very different trajectories since 2019. Topgolf and Dave & Buster’s expanded significantly after COVID, driving overall visits above 2019 levels and outperforming the broader full-service restaurant (FSR) segment. By Q2 2025, Topgolf’s systemwide foot traffic was up 59.2% compared to the same period in 2019, while Dave & Buster’s overall visits rose 7.1%. However, both chains began to slow at the unit level in 2022 as inflation weighed on household budgets.
Chuck E. Cheese, meanwhile, shuttered dozens of locations after its 2020 bankruptcy. But in mid-2024, the brand’s systemwide and per-location visits began rebounding significantly, surpassing even the broader FSR segment by Q1 2025.
Chuck E. Cheese’s resurgence can be traced to a revamped Summer Fun Pass program launched in the summer of 2024. By offering unlimited play, the company drove a dramatic increase in repeat visits – and the model proved so successful that the company extended it year-round, fueling sustained visit growth that continued into 2025.
Between March and May 2025, per-location visits to Chuck E. Cheese surged 17.6% to 23.0% year over year (YoY), before stabilizing in June and July as the chain began lapping its extraordinary 2024 performance. Importantly, this plateau doesn’t indicate decline – instead, it highlights Chuck E. Cheese’s ability to maintain traffic levels that seemed unimaginable just two years ago.
Chuck E. Cheese’s loyalty surge also shows no signs of abating. In June 2024 12.0% of visitors came in at least twice during the month – up from 7.2% to 8.0% the previous summer. And although repeat visitation dipped somewhat when school resumed in the fall, it remained elevated YoY and rebounded again this summer.
Topgolf has long relied on expansion to drive growth. But even as overall foot traffic has continued surging past pre-COVID benchmarks, visits per location began declining in 2022.
Recent data, however, suggests this dynamic is shifting. Since May, the chain has posted high single-digit per-location YoY growth – a clear indicator of unit-level recovery. And though same-venue sales still fell 6.0% last quarter, the company raised its guidance, signaling an improved outlook.
Here too, loyalty metrics point to the central role of Topgolf’s revived Summer Fun Pass in reigniting traffic by offering value-conscious consumers more affordable access to its premium experience. Though the gains are smaller than those seen by Chuck E. Cheese’s, they still mark a meaningful step in Topgolf’s recovery.
Dave & Buster’s flagship chain continues to lag peers on YoY visitation, with Q2 2025 traffic below 2024 levels. Still, visit data for May to July 2025 points to an improving trend, aligning with the company’s recent report of better comp sales in June.
Once again, progress appears tied to a new subscription model – Dave & Buster’s first-ever Summer Season Pass. Priced similarly to last year’s new Winter Pass, but timed to coincide with school and college vacations, the summer program significantly boosted repeat visits and strengthened customer engagement. And although per-location traffic at Dave & Buster’s remains a challenge, the brand’s growing loyalty base and expanding footprint give it a foundation for steady, sustainable growth.
Much like gym memberships, affordable flat fees for gameplay at eatertainment venues allow budget-conscious consumers to stretch their dollars by visiting more often. And these subscription-based models appear to be resonating with consumers in 2025.
But the model comes with its own challenges. For Chuck E. Cheese, Topgolf, and Dave & Buster’s, the key test will be turning higher visitation into greater spend. Converting traffic gains into food, beverage, and event revenue – without eroding margins – will ultimately determine whether subscription-driven loyalty can deliver sustainable long-term growth.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Starbucks launched its latest fall menu on August 26th, 2025, which included the fan-favorite Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL). How did the return of the anticipated beverage impact visits this year? We dove into the data to find out.
The fall menu launch and PSL return drove significant visit spikes to Starbucks, as shown in the chart below. And traffic on this year's PSL launch was nearly identical to 2024 levels – highlighting the remarkable consistency of the seasonal offering that has now become a cultural staple. The ability of the PSL to drive traffic at scale – even after two decades – underscores its unique role in Starbucks' playbook.
While the PSL's appeal is coast-to-coast, enthusiasm varies geographically.
The map below plots the increase in Starbucks visits on the launch of the fall menu compared to each state's pre-fall menu launch daily average. The Mountain region emerged as this year's PSL epicenter: Utah led the nation with a traffic surge of over 40% above its daily average, with neighboring states like Colorado, Idaho, and Nevada also showing exceptional gains. The Midwest and Appalachia, including West Virginia and Kentucky, followed with their own impressive double-digit increases.
By contrast, increases were more muted in the Northeast and Southeast, with single-digit visit growth in Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Together, these patterns reveal both the universal draw of Starbucks’ seasonal offerings and the regional nuances that shape consumer response.
While competitors like Dunkin' and Dutch Bros. also leverage seasonal menus to attract customers, their launch-day boosts don't match the scale of the PSL phenomenon, as shown in the chart below. Starbucks has successfully transformed a menu update into a highly anticipated cultural moment that competitors struggle to replicate.
This data suggests that Starbucks' fall launch doesn't just boost its own traffic – it sets the benchmark for the entire industry. The brand’s ability to blend product innovation with cultural relevance reinforces its position as the undisputed leader in the seasonal beverage market.
The data from the 2025 fall menu launch suggests that the Pumpkin Spice Latte is far more than a seasonal beverage; it is one of Starbucks' most reliable and defensible strategic assets. The popular LTO provides a predictable traffic and revenue anchor, transforming the fall menu and the PSL at its center into a reliable financial instrument that widens the company's competitive advantage.
Ultimately, the enduring success of the PSL highlights Starbucks' mastery in transforming a product into a cultural tradition, proving that the most powerful driver of consumer behavior isn't just the product itself, but the anticipation and ritual built around it.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Secondhand shopping has emerged as a major storyline this season amid potential tariff-driven apparel price hikes – but foot traffic data shows that thrifting's move into the mainstream has been years in the making. We dove into the data to assess the state of the thrift store segment in 2025 and explore what’s driving its continued momentum.
Thrift store foot traffic has been on an impressive upward trajectory since COVID. In Q2 2025, visits were up 39.5% compared to Q2 2019 – far exceeding the 9.5% growth seen across the broader clothing industry.
This visit growth advantage reflects a mix of factors, including heightened economic pressures and sustainability concerns. In addition, while much apparel shopping has shifted online – and digital resale platforms like ThredUp are gaining traction – thrifting remains inherently experiential and in-person.
Thrifting’s unique seasonality also highlights its important role in the consumer shopping cycle. As the chart below illustrates, conventional apparel peaks during the holiday shopping season (Q4) while thrift stores hit their stride in summer (Q3) – likely buoyed by warm-weather wardrobe refreshes and back-to-school shopping.
A closer look at year-over-year (YoY) trends show industry-wide thrift store visit increases outpacing per-location gains, suggesting that the segment’s growth is partly driven by store openings. Yet established locations are thriving too, with average visits per location continuing to rise even against last year’s strong benchmarks.
This dual pattern – new stores bringing in additional shoppers while established locations continue to grow – shows that thrifting’s momentum reflects true market expansion rather than merely a redistribution of demand.
Demographic data also points to thrifting’s ongoing move into the mainstream. The median household income of areas feeding visits to thrift stores has risen steadily since 2019, signaling a significant broadening of these stores' customer base beyond their traditional lower-income demographic.
Geographically, thrift shopping has also expanded beyond its urban roots. The share of visits from rural, semi-rural, and suburban communities has climbed consistently over the past six years, making secondhand shopping a fixture of consumer culture across regions and income levels.
With potential tariffs threatening to raise the cost of imported clothing, continued economic pressures, and rising demand for sustainable alternatives, thrift stores appear poised to thrive well into the future. Will secondhand visits climb to new highs this summer?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Whether it’s a family picnic, a romantic stroll, or a casual jog, local parks have long been woven into the fabric of American life. In recent years, however, when and how people use these green spaces has shifted in important ways.
Using Placer.ai’s index of 3,000 local parks (i.e., smaller parks within cities, towns, and suburbs and excluding national and state parks), we analyzed visitation patterns over the past year and compared them to pre-COVID baselines. The results reveal not only a steady rise in park traffic, but also meaningful changes in how Americans engage with these public spaces.
Visits to local parks have steadily increased since 2019 as shown in the graph below – reflecting a sustained post-pandemic shift toward outdoor activities.
But the data also shows an interesting seasonal shift. Unsurprisingly, park visits tend to peak in spring and summer (Q2 and Q3), and drop in winter. But whereas in 2019 and 2021, Q3 slightly outperformed Q2, this trend began to reverse in 2022 – and over the past three years, spring and early summer have consistently outpaced the July to September period. Additionally, while Q2 visits have grown year after year, Q3 visits began to decline in 2024 – and July 2025 data suggests the trend may be continuing.
The shift, though subtle, may be tied to extreme summer heat waves in recent years – but it remains to be seen if this pattern will hold long-term.
Beyond sheer numbers, how people use parks is also changing. Since 2019, the share of visits lasting under 30 minutes has dropped, while visits over 30 minutes have increased – pointing to more intentional, extended outings that may include picnics, sports, or social gatherings.
At the same time, the share of weekday and early-day visits have declined, while weekend and evening visits have grown. This suggests that park trips are increasingly seen as dedicated leisure activities – part of people’s weekend plans rather than casual, quick visits.
Meanwhile, analyzing parks' trade areas indicates a subtle but significant shift in the demographic profiles of park-goers.
In both 2018/9 and 2024/5, park visitors tended to come from relatively affluent areas, with median household incomes (HHIs) above the nationwide average of $79.6K. But the analyzed period saw a modest but significant decline in the median HHI of parks’ trade areas. indicating a broadening of the audience making use of these spaces.
This shift was accompanied by an increase in the participation of families with children – further evidence of the emergence of local parks as communal, family-oriented spaces.
The growth in visitation along with the shifts in timing, duration, and demography carry important implications for local governments and park planners – and understanding these trends can help cities serve their communities and allocate relevant resources more effectively.
For example, with weekend visitation on the rise, cities could plan more park events on Saturdays and Sundays to maximize attendance and community engagement. In addition, more weekend visitors may require expanded parking, public transport options, or bike access to accommodate higher demand.
The growth in later and longer park visits may also suggest a greater need for improved evening amenities, such as better lighting for safety and extended hours for public facilities. Longer visits could also mean higher demand for seating, shaded areas, restrooms, and refreshment vendors. And more families with children could drive demand for enhanced playground equipment, family-friendly programming, and child safety features.
By aligning park services with these evolving patterns, local governments can better serve residents, attract more visitors, and make the most of the growing enthusiasm for outdoor public spaces.
For more up-to-date insights into population movement and civic trends, explore our free migration tool.
Las Vegas has long been a tourism mecca, attracting domestic and international travelers eager to partake of the city’s iconic offerings. However, as economic uncertainty weighs heavily on many would-be vacationers' minds, visits to the city have slowed. We examined H1 2025 data for the city and its legendary Las Vegas Strip (just outside the city limits) to see how domestic tourism slowdowns are impacting the city.
Las Vegas, with its iconic vistas, casinos, entertainment options, and convention centers, has long been a favorite domestic tourism destination. But travel patterns have slowed nationwide, and the downturn hasn’t spared the Entertainment Capital of the World. Foot traffic data for out-of-market domestic visitors to Vegas – defined here as those coming from at least 50 miles away – shows a notable decline in tourist visits to the city.
Visits to the city of Las Vegas have dropped consistently since the pandemic, hitting a low in Q1 2025 when out-of-market traffic fell 4.0% YoY. The Las Vegas Strip, which hosts most of the area’s marquee attractions and drives substantial revenue, fared even worse with a 10.6% YoY decline in Q1.
Still, visits to both the city and the Strip picked up somewhat in Las Vegas’ traditionally stronger Q2, a positive sign for the city and perhaps an indication of better things to come.
Economic uncertainties are likely one of the main reasons for the slowing visits to Las Vegas. And analyzing median household income (HHI) data for the areas supplying out-of-market visitors to the city highlights the economic pressures at play.
In Q2 2019, both the city of Las Vegas and the Strip drew visitors from areas with median HHIs of about $83.0K, with only a slight gap in favor of the Strip. But since then, median HHI trends have shifted, with Las Vegas seeing a subtle but steady rise in median HHI to $88.8K, and the Strip seeing a much more substantial increase to $99.4K.
The steeper climb in median HHI for the Strip’s visits, coupled with its larger visit gaps, suggests that as prices for tourist attractions climb, more budget-conscious visitors may be opting to explore beyond the Strip. Hotel and casino operators, seeing spending on leisure activities soften, are now offering steep discounts to attract additional travel. For local stakeholders, this poses both opportunities and potential downsides: While higher-income visitors may spend more, opening up ample opportunities for operators and retailers, middle-income-focused properties and storefronts face mounting risks. Developing “on-ramps” for value-conscious travelers will be critical to maintaining wide-ranging appeal and driving continued tourism growth.
The shifting profile of visitors presents Las Vegas with both challenges and opportunities. City leaders and industry stakeholders must juggle catering to a more affluent crowd while remaining accessible to budget-minded travelers. Ultimately, the city’s resilience will hinge on a balanced approach – welcoming high-rollers while ensuring that Las Vegas remains a destination for everyone.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven travel & leisure insights.
July has become a heavy hitter in the retail calendar as retailers battle for consumers' attention and spending. Promotional activity during this month is incredibly high as the industry enters the back-to-school season and debut of pre-fall collections. However, one promotional event has long held the top spot in July, with its history pre-dating Prime Day and other retailer deal day events: The Nordstrom Anniversary Sale.
The Anniversary Sale’s premise is unique compared to other promotional events across the retail calendar; most items included in the event are exclusive to Nordstrom and typically the discounts are on new releases instead of previously released mark downs. The sale has become a signal of the changing of seasons as consumers prepare their fall wardrobes. Over the years, it has provided incredible insight into the psyche of the consumer and the impact of social media influencers on the retail industry.
The annual event has undergone some major changes over the last decade. Nordstrom was quick to embrace the power of social media influencers, and the Anniversary Sale gave influencers incredible opportunities to drive conversion from themselves and the retailer, and in return, receive high commissions. It wasn’t uncommon for user generated content to skyrocket with influencers posting hauls of their Anniversary Sale finds and deals. However, the commission structure has evolved over time, and the retailer has seemingly shifted its focus away from content creators as the primary driver of consumer engagement.
This year marked the longest public Anniversary Sale, which ran from July 12th through August 3rd. (Any consumer can shop at Nordstrom during the public Anniversary sale, but Nordstrom cardmembers usually have early access to the sale, and pre-sale lengths have fluctuated over the years). This year had 23 sale days, compared to 21 in 2023 & 2024, 17 in 2019 and 2022, and 12 in 2021, which may have been impacted by pandemic induced supply chain issues.
Looking at overall visitation for the event, traffic was up 17% compared to 2024 and 15% compared to 2023, but that does account for the two extra days of the sale. On a more comparable basis, the average visits per day of the 2025 Anniversary Sale were up 7% vs. 2024 and up 5% vs. 2023, respectively, highlighting that 2025 did bring a higher volume of average visitors per day, despite the longer sale period. But average visits per day during the sale were below 2019, 2021 and 2022 levels, when influencer marketing around the event was much higher than it is today.
Still, Nordstrom has regained its footing with many consumers over the past year, and that combined with consumers' desire for value across retail may have contributed to this year’s higher volume of visits compared to the past few years.
Another interesting outcome from this year? The percentage of visits during the weekend was higher in 2025 than all previous years reviewed. The public sale did start on a Saturday this year, which could have had an impact, but it also indicates that consumers might have been looking to the sale as an event to plan their shopping around, instead of a quick stop off during the week. Beginning the sale on Saturday may have moved the needle to drum up shopper excitement and incentivize visitors to shop on the first day of the event.
Consumers of all segments are increasing their appetite for value across the retail industry, and it appears that the Anniversary Sale was primed to welcome wealthy shoppers who wanted to score this year’s trends and designers at a lower price point. According to PersonaLive consumer segmentation, 2025 saw a higher distribution of visits from Ultra Wealthy Families & Wealth Suburban Families than the previous two sale events. There may have been fewer aspirational shoppers this year as well, concentrating visits with consumers who have higher levels of disposable income.
There was also an increase in the share of visits by older consumer segments at the expense of younger shoppers, which is interesting considering potential differences in consumer sentiment between generations and less emphasis on marketing the sale through social media.
Overall, the success of this year’s Anniversary Sale from a visitation perspective is encouraging, as many retailers contend with rising prices and waning consumer demand for discretionary goods. The strong visitation trends during the early back-to-school period highlight the brand value and positive consumer perception that the retailer has successfully cultivated in recent years. Nordstrom has found the formula to engage and retain shoppers, and it’s no wonder that we selected it as a Ten Top Brand to Watch for 2025.
Retailers have to be more creative to drive consumer activity in-store for the remainder of the year, but exclusivity might just be the key to success as evidenced by the Anniversary Sale performance.
To see up-to-date retail traffic trends, visit our free tools.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Professional sports are big business – the industry is valued at nearly $1 billion in the United States alone. And beyond the economic impact of actual ticket sales and stadium and sponsorship gains, major sporting events can have significant impacts on local industries such as tourism, dining, and hospitality. Cities hosting sports events tend to see influxes of visitors who boost tourism, spend money at restaurants and hotels, and create ripple effects that benefit entire local economies.
The 2024 Copa América, typically held in South America but hosted in the United States this year, provides a prime example of the effect sports tourism can have on local economies. The games kicked off in Atlanta, Georgia on June 20th, 2024, before moving on to other host cities and boosting hospitality traffic along the way.
This white paper dives into the data to see how the games impacted hotel visits in cities across America – and especially in Atlanta. The report uncovers the hotel tiers and brands that saw the largest visit boosts and explores visitor demographics to better understand the audiences drawn to the event.
The Copa América took place in June and July 2024, with fourteen cities – mainly across the Sunbelt – hosting games. Thousands of fans attended each event, driving up demand in local hotel markets.
Arlington, TX, saw the largest hotel visit bump during the week it hosted the games, with hospitality traffic up 23.0% compared to the metro area's weekly January to September 2024 visit average. Orlando, FL, too, enjoyed a significant visit spike (22.1%), followed by Kansas City, KS-MO (17.4%).
The Atlanta metropolitan area, for its part, also saw a significant 11.0% increase in hotel visits during its hosting week compared to the city’s weekly visit average.
The Copa América games attracted fans from across the country – from as far away as Washington State and New Hampshire, as well as from neighboring states like Florida. On the day the tournament began, 26.1% of the domestic visitors to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium came from over 250 miles away, up from an average of 19.7% during the rest of the year (January to September 2024). These out-of-towners likely had a significant impact on Atlanta’s local economy – through spending on accommodations, dining, and entertainment.
During the week of the Copa América game, all of the analyzed hotel types in Atlanta received a visit bump. And while some of these visits were likely unrelated to the game, the massive scale of the event means that a significant share of the visit growth was likely driven by out-of-town soccer fans. Analyzing these patterns Atlanta can provide valuable insights for hospitality stakeholders looking to attract attendees of major sporting events.
Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest boost during the week of the event, with visits 20.8% higher than the weekly visit average between January and September 2024. Midscale and Upscale hotels also experienced significant visit increases of 15.8% and 14.0%, respectively. During the same period, visits to Luxury hotels grew by 9.0% and Economy Hotel visits rose by 7.0% compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average. Meanwhile Upper Upscale Hotels received the smallest boost, with visits up by 2.9%.
Judging by these travel patterns, it appears that most Copa América spectators prefer to stay at Midscale, Upper Midscale, or Upscale hotels during the trip.
While Upper Midscale Hotels in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta metro area generally experienced the biggest visit boost during the Copa América, visit performance varied somewhat from chain to chain. TownePlace Suites and Fairfield Inn, both Upper Midscale Marriott properties, saw increases of 27.5% and 25.3%, respectively, compared to their January to September 2024 weekly averages. Other chains in the tier also enjoyed visit boosts – visits to Home2 Suites by Hilton and Hampton Inn – both Hilton chains – jumped by 17.3% and 17.4%, respectively, during the same period.
The popularity of these Upper Midscale hotels may be driven by a multitude of factors. Some, like TownePlace Suites and Home2 Suites offer kitchenettes, something that may appeal to visitors looking to save by preparing their own meals. Others, such as Fairfield Inn and Hampton Inn which offer more locations closer to the stadium may attract visitors that prioritize convenience.
Layering the STI: PopStats dataset onto Placer.ai’s captured market can provide insights into Copa América attendees by revealing the demographic attributes of census block groups (CBGs) contributing visitors to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The CBGs feeding visitors to a chain or venue, weighted to reflect the share of visitors from each one, are collectively referred to as the business’ captured market.)
During the Copa América opener,Mercedes-Benz Stadium drew visitors from CBGs with a median household income (HHI) of $90.0K – well above the national median of $76.1K and similar to the median HHI during the Taylor Swift concert ($90.6K). The stadium’s trade area median HHI was even higher during the Super Bowl ($117.9K).
This visitor profile suggests that Copa América attendees – along with guests of other major cultural and sporting events – often have the means to splurge on comfortable, mid-range hotels for their stays. As Atlanta gears up to host the College Football National Championship in January 2025, the 62nd Super Bowl in February 2028, and the MLB All Star Game in July 2025, along with a host of smaller-scale events – the city can draw on historical data from past events, including the Copa América, to better understand the needs and preferences of stadium visitors and plan accordingly.
And although Upper Upscale hotels generally experienced relatively subdued growth during the Atlanta Copa América opener, some Upper Upscale properties – including Marriott’s Autograph Collection Twelve Downtown, saw visits jump. Visits to the hotel were up 19.7% during the week of the Copa América compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average.
The Twelve Downtown has become a popular lodging choice for major events in the city, likely due to its proximity to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The hotel is located just over a mile away from the stadium). During the Super Bowl LIII five years ago, the Twelve Downtown drew 27.9% more visits than its weekly average for January to September 2019. And during the 2023 Taylor Swift concert, the hotel saw a 25.5% visit bump.
A closer look at the median HHI of the hotel’s captured market during the three periods reveals that, despite each event attracting visitors from varying income brackets, the median HHI of visitors to the Twelve Downtown remained stable. Visitors to the hotel between January and September 2024 came from trade areas where the median HHI was $76.2K, not far off from the median HHI during the 2019 Super Bowl ($75.4K), Taylor Swift’s 2023 concert ($80.6K) and the Copa América ($76.7K).
This stability suggests that, regardless of the event, hotels attract a specific visitor base. And understanding the similarities within the demographic profiles of likely hotel visitors during different events will be key for hotels at all levels seeking to capitalize on the economic opportunities created by major local events.
The Mountain region offers employment opportunities, affordable housing, outdoors recreation, and a relatively low cost of living – which could explain why these states are emerging as major domestic migration hubs. Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming in particular have consistently attracted inbound domestic migration in recent years, as Americans continue leaving higher density regions in search of greener – and calmer – pastures.
This report uses various datasets from the Placer.ai Migration Trends Report to analyze domestic migration to Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming. Where are people coming from? And how is recent migration impacting local population centers in these states? Keep reading to find out.
Idaho emerged as a domestic migration hotspot over the pandemic, as many Americans freed from the obligation of in-person work relocated to the Gem State. Between June 2020 and June 2024, Idaho saw positive net migration of 4.7%, more than any other state in the U.S. (This metric measures the number of people moving to a state minus the number of people leaving – expressed as a percentage of the state’s total population.) And between 2023 and 2024, Idaho remained the nation’s top domestic migration performer (see map above).
Diving into the data reveals that though people moved to Idaho from across the U.S., most of Idaho’s influx over the past four years came from neighboring West Coast and Mountain States – especially California. Former residents of the Golden State accounted for a whopping 58.1% of inbound migrants to Idaho over the analyzed period.
California’s position as the top feeder of relocators to Idaho during the analyzed period may come as no surprise, given the state’s recent population outflow and the many former California residents who have settled in the Mountain region. But Washington, Oregon, and Nevada – where inbound and outbound migration remained relatively even in recent years – have also been seeing shifts to Idaho.
Idaho has a lower tax burden, robust employment opportunities, and greater overall affordability than its top four feeder states. So some of the recent relocators likely moved to the Gem State to enjoy better economic opportunities while staying relatively close to their states of origin. And these recent Idahoans may be reshaping Idaho’s demographic and economic landscape in the process.
Most inbound migration to Idaho is concentrated in the state’s metro areas, with Boise – the capital of Idaho and the major city closest to California – consistently absorbing the highest share of net inbound migration.
But recently, other CBSAs have emerged as key destinations for new Idahoans. The location of two emerging domestic relocation hubs in particular suggests that many new Idaho residents may be looking to stay close to their areas of origin: Coeur d’Alene, located near the border with Washington, attracts its largest contingent of new residents from the Spokane, WA metro area, while Twin Falls’ top feeder area is the Elko CBSA in northern Nevada.
Twin Falls in southern Idaho has a strong job market – and has received a substantial share of inbound domestic migration over the past three years. Coeur d’Alene is also flush with economic opportunities, and after declining steadily for several years, the share of relocators heading to the metro area increased to 20.7% between June 2023 and 2024.
The chart above also reveals that the share of inbound migration heading to Boise declined slightly between June 2023 and June 2024 – following a period of consistent growth between June 2020 and June 2023 – even as the share of migration to Coeur d’Alene ballooned. This may mean that, although the state’s largest metro area may have reached its saturation point, other areas in the state are still primed to receive inbound migration.
While Nevada is losing some of its population to nearby Idaho, the Silver State is also gaining new residents of its own: Between September 2020 and September 2024, the Silver State experienced positive net migration of 3.3%. And the data indicates that many new Nevadans are choosing to settle in the state's rapidly growing suburban centers.
Zooming into the Las Vegas-Henderson CBSA reveals that much of the growth is concentrated outside the main city of Las Vegas. Instead, the more suburban cities of Enterprise, Henderson, and North Las Vegas received the largest migration bump – with Henderson and North Las Vegas’ population now surpassing that of Reno. And while year-over-year migration trends suggest that the growth is beginning to stabilize, Enterprise and Henderson are still growing significantly faster than the CBSA as a whole – indicating that the suburbs continue to draw Nevada newcomers.
Analyzing the inbound domestic migration to Enterprise – one of the fastest growing areas in the country – may shed light on the aspects of suburban Las Vegas that are driving population growth.
Many new Enterprise residents moved to the city from elsewhere in Nevada, while most out-of-state newcomers came from California or Hawaii – mirroring the migration patterns for Nevada as a whole. And according to the Niche Neighborhood Grades dataset, Enterprise is a good fit for retirees and young professionals alike, with the city ranking higher than its feeder areas with regard to a range of factors – from jobs and commute to weather.
Like with migration to the rest of the Mountain region, domestic migration to Nevada – particularly to suburban areas like Enterprise and Henderson – is likely driven by newcomers looking for more economic opportunities along with higher quality of life.
Wyoming – currently the least populous state in the country – is another Mountain region state where inbound migration is driving up the population numbers. But in the Cowboy State, urban areas – as opposed to suburban ones – seem to be the main magnets for population growth.
The Cheyenne, Wyoming CBSA – home to Wyoming’s capital – is the largest metro area in the state. And analyzing the CBSA’s population trends over the past six years reveals a recent shift in Wyoming’s inbound migration patterns.
Cheyenne’s population is mostly suburban, and the CBSA’s suburban areas remain popular with newcomers – suburban Cheyenne has also seen steady population growth since January 2018. But when the CBSA became a popular relocation destination over the pandemic, many newcomers to the Cheyenne region chose to move to metro area’s more rural areas: By April 2022, Cheyenne’s rural population had jumped by 10.8% compared to a January 2018 baseline, compared to a 5.9% and 3.9% increase in the CBSA’s suburban and urban populations, respectively.
As the country opened back up, however, the number of rural Cheyenne residents dropped back down – and by September 2024, Cheyenne’s rural population was only 0.1% bigger than it had been in January 2018. The population growth in suburban Cheyenne also slowed down, with the September 2024 suburban population numbers more or less on par with the April 2022 figures.
Now, Cheyenne’s urban areas have overtaken both rural and suburban areas in terms of population growth: In September 2024, Cheyenne’s urban population was 9.4% bigger than in January 2018, compared to 5.2% and 0.1% growth for the suburban and urban areas, respectively.
Despite the growth in Cheyenne’s urban population, the suburbs still remain the most populous – as of September 2024, 71.2% of the CBSA’s population resided in suburban areas. But the continued growth of Cheyenne’s urban population may reflect a rising demand among Wyomingites for amenities and economic opportunities unavailable elsewhere in the state, mirroring the trend in Idaho’s urban CBSAs such as Boise and Coeur d'Alene.
Cheyenne’s urban growth could be partially due to shifts in migration patterns. At the height of the pandemic, most newcomers to Cheyenne were coming from out of state, perhaps drawn by the quiet and spaciousness of rural Wyoming. But since 2022, the share of migration to Cheyenne from within Wyoming has grown – coinciding with the population increase in its urban areas and suggesting that Cheyenne's amenities are attracting more residents statewide.
This growing intra-state migration to Cheyenne’s urban areas underscores the city’s evolving role as a hub within Wyoming, appealing not just to newcomers from outside the state but increasingly to Wyoming residents seeking the benefits of a more urban lifestyle relative to the rest of the state.
The Mountain States are solidifying their status as key migration hubs in the U.S., driven by economic opportunities, affordable living, and lifestyle appeal. Between September 2023 and September 2024, Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming all experienced significant population growth due to inbound domestic migration. In Idaho, newcomers from neighboring states are boosting the population of the Gem State’s major metro areas. Meanwhile the Cheyenne, Wyoming, CBSA is emerging as a focal point for intra-state migration, with urban Cheyenne seeing particularly pronounced growth. And in Nevada, suburban hubs like Henderson and Enterprise are welcoming new arrivals seeking a balance of suburban comfort and economic potential. With the cost of living continuing to increase – and the Mountain region offering something for everyone through its various states – Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming are likely to remain top migration destinations in 2025 and beyond.
2024 has been another challenging year for retailers. Still-high prices and an uncertain economic climate led many shoppers to trade down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences. Value took center stage, as cautious consumers sought to stretch their dollars as far as possible.
But price wasn’t the only factor driving consumer behavior in 2024. This past year saw the rise of a variety of retail and dining trends, some seemingly at odds with one another. Shoppers curbed discretionary spending, but made room in their budgets for “essential non-essentials” like gym memberships and other wellness offerings. Consumers placed a high premium on speed and convenience, while at the same time demonstrating a willingness to go out of their way for quality or value finds. And even amidst concern about the economy, shoppers were ready to pony up for specialty items, legacy brands, and fun experiences – as long as they didn’t break the bank.
How did these currents – likely to continue shaping the retail landscape into 2025 – impact leading brands and categories? We dove into the data to find out.
Bifurcation has emerged as a foundational principle in retail over the past few years: Consumers are increasingly gravitating toward either luxury or value offerings and away from the ‘middle.’ Add extended economic uncertainty along with rapid expansions and product diversification from top value-oriented retailers, and you have an explosion of visits in the value lane.
But we are seeing a ceiling to that growth – especially in the discount & dollar store space. Throughout 2023 and the first part of 2024, visits to discount & dollar stores increased steadily. But no category can sustain uninterrupted visit growth forever. Since April 2024, year–over-year (YoY) foot traffic to the segment has begun to slow, with September 2024 showing just a modest 0.8% YoY visit increase.
Discount & dollar stores, which attract lower-income shoppers compared to both grocery stores and superstores, have also begun lagging behind these segments in visit-per-location growth. In Q3, the average number of visits to each discount and dollar store location remained essentially flat compared to 2023 (+0.2%), while visits per location to superstores and grocery stores grew by 2.8% and 1.0%, respectively. As 2024 draws to a close, it is the latter segments, which appeal to shoppers with incomes closer to the nationwide median of $76.1K, which are seeing better YoY performance.
The deceleration doesn’t mean that discount retailers are facing existential risk – discount & dollar stores are still extremely strong and well-positioned with focused offerings that resonate with consumers. The visitation data does suggest, however, that future growth may need to focus on initiatives other large-scale fleet expansions. Some of these efforts will involve moving upmarket (see pOpShelf), some will focus on fleet optimization, and others may include new offerings and channels.
Return of the middle anyone?
Still, in an environment where consumers have been facing the compounded effects of rising prices, value remains paramount for many shoppers. And brands that have found ways to let customers have their cake and eat it too – enjoy specialty offerings and elevated experiences without breaking the bank – have emerged as major visit winners this year.
Trader Joe’s, in particular, has stood out as one of the leading retail brands for innovative value in 2024, a trend that is expected to continue into 2025.
Trader Joe’s dedicated fan base is positively addicted to the chain’s broad range of high-quality specialty items. But by maintaining a much higher private label mix than most grocers – approximately 80%, compared to an industry average of 25% to 30% – the retailer is also able to keep its pricing competitive. Trader Joe’s cultivates consumer excitement by constantly innovating its product line – there are even websites dedicated to showcasing the chain’s new offerings each season. In turn, Trader Joe’s enjoys much higher visits per square foot than the rest of the grocery category: Over the past twelve months, Trader Joe’s drew a median 56 visits per square foot – compared to 23 for H-E-B, the second-strongest performer.
Casual dining chain Chili’s has also been a standout on the disruptive value front this past year – offering consumers a full-service dining experience at a quick-service price point.
Chili’s launched its Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, adding the item to its popular ‘3 for Me’ offering, which includes an appetizer, entrée, and drink for just $10.99 – lower than than the average ticket at many quick-service restaurant chains. The innovative promotion, which has been further expanded since, continues to drive impressive visitation trends. With food-away-from-home inflation continuing to decelerate, this strategy of offering deep discounts is likely to continue to be a key story in 2025.
Convenience is king, right?
Well, probably not. If convenience truly were king, visitors would orient themselves to making fewer, longer visits to retailers – to minimize the inconvenience of frequent grocery trips and spend less time on the road. But analyzing the data suggests that, while consumers may want to save time, it is not always their chief concern.
Looking at the superstore and grocery segments (among others) reveals that the proportion of visitors spending under 30 minutes at the grocery store is actually increasing – from 73.3% in Q3 2019 to 76.6% in Q3 2024. This indicates that shoppers are increasingly willing to make shorter trips to the store to pick up just a few items.
At the same time, more consumers than ever are willing to travel farther to visit specialty grocery chains in the search of specific products that make the visit worthwhile.
Cross visitation between chains is also increasing – suggesting that shoppers are willing to make multiple trips to find the products they want – at the right price point. Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, the share of traditional grocery store visitors who also visited a Costco at least three times during the quarter grew across chains.
Does this mean convenience doesn’t matter? Of course not. Does it indicate that value, quality and a love of specific products are becoming just as, if not more, important to shoppers? Yes.
The implications here are very significant. If consumers are willing to go out of their way for the right products at the right price points – even at the expense of convenience – then the retailers able to leverage these ‘visit drivers’ will be best positioned to grow their reach considerably. The willingness of consumers to forego convenience considerations when the incentives are right also reinforces the ever-growing importance of the in-store experience.
So while convenience may still be within the royal family, the role of king is up for grabs.
Convenience may not be everything, but the drive for quicker service has emerged as more important than ever in the restaurant space. Diners want their fast food… well, as fast as possible. And to meet this demand, quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and fast-casual chains have been integrating more technology into their operations. Chipotle has been a leader in this regard, unveiling the “Autocado” robot at a Huntington Beach, California location last month. The robot can peel, pit, and chop avocados in record time, a major benefit for the Tex-Mex chain.
And the Autocado seems to be paying off. The Huntington Beach location drew 10.0% more visits compared to the average Chipotle location in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro area in Q3 2024. Visitors are visiting more frequently and getting their food more quickly – 43.9% of visits at this location lasted 10 minutes or less, compared to 37.5% at other stores in the CBSA.
Are diners flocking to this Chipotle location to watch the future of avocado chopping in action, or are they enticed by shorter wait times? Time will tell. But with workers able to focus on other aspects of food preparation and customer service, the innovation appears to be resonating with diners.
McDonald’s, too, has leaned into new technologies to streamline its service. The chain debuted its first (almost) fully automated, takeaway-only restaurant in White Settlement, TX in 2022 – where orders are placed at kiosks or on app, and then delivered to customers by robots. (The food is still prepared by humans.) Unsurprisingly, the restaurant drives faster visits than other local McDonald’s locations – in Q3 2023, 79.7% of visits to the chain lasted less than 10 minutes, compared to 68.5% for other McDonald’s in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA. But crucially, the automated location is also busier than other area McDonald’s, garnering 16.8% more visits in Q3 than the chain’s CBSA-wide average. And the location draws a higher share of late-night visits than other area McDonald’s – customers on the hunt for a late-night snack might be drawn to a restaurant that offers quick, interaction-free service.
Changing store formats is another key trend shaping retail in 2024. Whether by reducing box sizes to cut costs, make stores more accessible, or serve smaller growth markets – or by going big with one-stop shops, retailers are reimagining store design. And the moves are resonating with consumers, driving visits while at the same improving efficiency.
Macy’s, Inc. is one retailer that is leading the small-format charge this year. In February 2024, Macy’s announced its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround plan including the downsizing of its traditional eponymous department store fleet and a pivot towards smaller-format Macy’s locations. Macy’s has also continued to expand its highly-curated, small-format Bloomie’s concept, which features a mix of established and trendy pop-up brands tailored to local preferences.
And the data shows that this shift towards small format may be helping Macy’s drive visits with more accessible and targeted offerings that consumers can enjoy as they go about their daily routines: In Q3 2024, Macy’s small-format stores drew a higher share of weekday visitors and of local customers (i.e. those coming from less than seven miles away) than Macy’s traditional stores.
Small-format stores are also making inroads in the home improvement category. The past few years have seen consumers across the U.S. migrating to smaller suburban and rural markets – and retailers like Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware are harnessing their small-format advantage to accommodate these customers while keeping costs low.
Harbor Freight tools and Ace Hardware’s trade areas have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S., many of which have populations under 200K. And while it can be difficult to justify opening a Home Depot or Lowe’s in these hubs – both chains average more than 100,000 square feet per store – Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware’s smaller boxes, generally under 20,000 square feet, are a perfect fit.
This has allowed both chains to tap into the smaller markets which are attracting growing shares of the population. And so while Home Depot and Lowe’s have seen moderate visits declines on a YoY basis, Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware have seen consistent YoY visit boosts since Q1 2024 – outperforming the wider category since early 2023.
Are smaller stores a better bet across the board? At the end of the day, the success of smaller-format stores depends largely on the category. For retail segments that have seen visit trends slow since the pandemic – home furnishings and consumer electronics, for example – smaller-format stores offer brands a more economical way to serve their customers. Retailers have also used smaller-format stores to better curate their merchandise assortments for their most loyal customers, helping to drive improved visit frequency.
That said, a handful of retailers, such as Hy-Vee, have recently bucked the trend of smaller-format stores. These large-format stores are often designed as destination locations – Hy-Vee’s larger-format locations usually offer a full suite of amenities beyond groceries, such as a food hall, eyewear kiosk, beauty department, and candy shop. Rather than focusing on smaller markets, these stores aim to attract visitors from surrounding areas.
Visit data for Hy-Vee’s large-format store in Gretna, Nebraska indicates that this location sees a higher percentage of weekend visits than other area locations – 37.7% compared to 33.1% for the chain’s Omaha CBSA average – as well as more visits lasting over 30 minutes (32.9% compared to 21.9% for the metro area as a whole). For these shoppers, large-format, one-stop shops offer a convenient – and perhaps more exciting – alternative to traditionally sized grocery stores. The success of the large-format stores is another sign that though convenience isn’t everything in 2024, it certainly resonates – especially when paired with added-value offerings.
Many retail brands have entrenched themselves in American culture and become an extension of consumers' identities. And while some of these previously ubiquitous brands have disappeared over the years as the retail industry evolved, others have transformed to keep pace with changing consumer needs – and some have even come back from the brink of extinction. And the quest for value notwithstanding, 2024 has also seen the resurgence of many of these (decidedly non-off-price) legacy brands.
In apparel specifically, Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch – two brands that dominated the cultural zeitgeist of the 1990s and early 2000s before seeing their popularity decline somewhat in the late aughts and 2010s – may be staging a comeback. Bed Bath & Beyond, a leader in the home goods category, is also making a play at returning to physical retail through partnerships.
Anthropologie, another legacy player in women’s fashion and home goods, is also on the rise. Anthropologie’s distinctive aesthetic resonates deeply with consumers – especially women millennials aged 30 to 45. And by capturing the hearts of its customers, the retailer stands as a beacon for retailers that can hedge against promotional activity and still drive foot traffic growth.
And visits to the chain have been rising steadily. In Q4 2023, the chain experienced a bigger holiday season foot traffic spike than pre-pandemic, drawing more overall visits than in Q4 2019. And in Q3 2024, visits were higher than in Q3 2023.
And speaking of the 35 to 40 set – the generation that all retailers are courting? Millennials. Does that sound familiar? Yes, because this is the same generational cohort that retailers tried to target a decade ago. As millennials have aged into the family-formation stage of life, their retail needs have evolved, and the industry is now primed to meet them.
From the revival of nostalgic brands like the Limited Too launch at Kohl’s to warehouse clubs expanding memberships to younger consumers as they move to suburban and rural communities, there are myriad examples of retailers reaching out to this cohort. And Sam’s Club offers a prime example of this trend.
Over the past few years, millennials and Gen-Zers have emerged as major drivers of membership growth at Sam’s Club, drawn to the retailer’s value offerings and digital upgrades – like the club’s Scan & Go technology. Over the same period, Sam’s Club has grown the share of “Singles and Starters” households in its captured market from 6% above the national benchmark in Q3 2019 to 15% in Q3 2024. And with plans to involve customers in co-creating products for its private-label brand, Sam’s Club may continue to grow its market share among this value-conscious – but also discerning and optimistic – demographic.
Millennials are also now old enough to wax nostalgic about their youth – and brands are paying attention. This summer, Taco Bell leaned into nostalgia with a promotion bringing back iconic menu items from the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s – all priced under $3. The promotion, which soft-launched at three Southern California locations in August, was so successful that the company is now offering the specials nationwide. The three locations that trialed the “Decades Menu” saw significant boosts in visits during the promotional period compared to their daily averages for August. And people came from far and wide to sample the offerings – with a higher proportion of visitors traveling over seven miles to reach the stores while the items were available.
Hot on the heels of a tumultuous 2023, 2024’s retail environment has certainly kept retailers on their toes. While embracing innovative value has helped some chains thrive, other previously ascendant value segments, including discount & dollar stores, may have reached their growth ceilings. Consumers clearly care about convenience – but are willing to make multiple grocery stops to find what they need. At the same time, legacy brands are plotting their comeback, while others are harnessing the power of nostalgia to drive millennials – and other consumers – through their doors.
