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January and February saw a modest year-over-year (YoY) uptick in visits to the DICK’s Sporting Goods banner, while March traffic softened. However, March 2026’s visit decline appears at least partially calendar-driven – the month had one fewer Saturday than the previous year – and traffic rebounded to near-flat levels in April.
Gap entered 2026 with momentum, but foot traffic softened in both March and April – perhaps reflecting the calendar shift as well as broader consumer caution and its impact on discretionary spending. Still, the traffic slowdown may be a temporary setback. Gap continues to expand into apparel-adjacent retail categories such as beauty and accessories – with new product launches in the months ahead that could help reinvigorate visits.
Meanwhile, lululemon’s North American business continues to face headwinds, as domestic performance lags behind stronger international results. Yet, the company – still searching for a new CEO – is guiding for a turnaround in the second half of 2026. Planned initiatives include new product introductions, reduced reliance on markdowns, and ongoing store expansion. Whether visit trends begin to reflect that anticipated recovery will be closely watched as the year unfolds.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The first four months of 2026 have been challenging for department stores, as consumer caution and rising gas prices weigh on discretionary spending. But visit data reveals a clear divide between chains gaining traction and those continuing to lose ground – offering a window into what’s working in today’s environment.
Looking at quarterly performance, Midwestern chain Von Maur stood apart from the field in Q1 2026, posting an 8.7% increase in overall visits and a 5.9% gain in average visits per location – the strongest performance in the segment on both measures.
Von Maur’s appeal can be attributed in part to a tightly controlled model that prioritizes service, brand curation, and pricing consistency over scale and promotions. And as a regional favorite in the Midwest, the brand benefits from a well-established customer base.
Other players with similar positioning also showed relative strength in Q1. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regional favorite Boscov’s outperformed several larger national chains, while Nordstrom saw average visits per location increase 1.6% year over year – suggesting continued traction for curation-led formats. Saks Fifth Avenue and Bloomingdale’s also held steady, reinforcing the resilience of higher-end department stores even as Saks navigates bankruptcy proceedings.
Still, monthly data highlights just how exposed the department store segment is to discretionary, time-rich shopping trips, which tend to concentrate on weekends – and which consumers may be pulling back on in 2026.
In Q1 2026, Saturdays accounted for more than a quarter (25.4%) of department store visits, well above both the 17.4% average for non-discretionary brick-and-mortar retailers and the 21.6% average for discretionary chains. As a result, March 2026 – which had one fewer Saturday than March 2025 – saw visits soften across the board.
April, however, painted a more encouraging picture. With the calendar normalized, several chains returned to flat or positive year-over-year same-store visit trends. Von Maur led once again with an 8.5% increase, while Nordstrom (+0.9%) and Bloomingdale’s (+1.7%) also posted gains. Macy’s, as it advances its Bold New Chapter strategy, saw its year-over-year visit gap narrow to 2.4% in April. As the chain continues to close underperforming locations and invest in its Reimagine 125 cohort, performance may improve further in the months ahead.
Department store performance in Q1 2026 reflected today’s increasingly bifurcated landscape, where premium, experience-driven retailers continue to draw shoppers even amid broader caution, while mid-market chains remain more exposed to macro pressure. Even in a constrained environment, consumers are still willing to show up for brands that offer a clear, compelling experience – but that bar is rising, making it harder for less differentiated players to keep up.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
When consumers get cautious, off-price gets busy. And as shoppers continued trading down in Q1 2026 amid rising gas prices and tariff-driven uncertainty, Ross Dress for Less stood out as a top performer, capturing demand from consumers seeking the deepest discounts.
Off-price’s momentum is most visible in its widening lead over department stores. The category captured 65.7% of combined visit share in Q1 2026, up from 62.2% in Q1 2025 and just 56.2% in Q1 2022. These steady, multi-year gains underscore a structural shift in where consumers are choosing to shop – one that continues to accelerate as value becomes a central decision driver.
While part of off-price’s growth stems from ongoing fleet expansions – even as department stores shrink their footprints – the data also points to steady, and in some cases rising, same-store performance.
Ross Dress for Less, for example, has seen double-digit same-store visit gains in recent months, consistent with its most recent earnings report of a 9% year-over-year (YoY) increase in comparable sales, primarily driven by traffic. Its no-frills, ultra-low pricing often undercuts the rest of the off-price segment – making it particularly attractive in today’s increasingly needs-based shopping environment. And with no e-commerce channel to divert demand, every transaction runs through the chain’s physical stores.
At Marshalls and TJ Maxx, the core strategy remains what it has always been: opportunistic buying at scale paired with a slightly more elevated treasure-hunt experience that keeps customers coming back. And in Q1, the banners delivered low single-digit overall visit growth, with modest gains in visits per location.
Performance, however, was uneven across the quarter. After a February lift – helped in part by easier comparisons – March same-store traffic turned slightly negative, reflecting both a calendar shift (one fewer Saturday) and broader consumer caution. That softness largely continued into April, though TJ Maxx saw a modest 0.4% YoY uptick. Marmaxx's higher price points and more brand-forward assortment likely make it more sensitive to discretionary pullbacks than Ross – while its e-commerce presence could also be absorbing demand as higher gas prices shift some shopping online.
Even so, Marmaxx remains in a position of structural strength. Its network of more than 1,400 buyers sourcing from over 21,000 vendors worldwide provides unmatched flexibility – particularly as tariff-related disruptions push excess inventory into the market. And as consumer sentiment rebounds, traffic growth is likely to follow.
Burlington, meanwhile, posted an 7.7% overall increase in visits in Q1, largely driven by its rapidly expanding store base, even as per-location traffic declined 2.1% YoY.
The company’s elevation strategy – focused on improving assortment quality with more recognizable brands and higher quality products – has delivered solid results in recent quarters. But with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending, the elevated assortment may be temporarily finding a smaller audience – a dynamic likely amplified by Burlington’s more value-oriented customer base compared to peers.
Still, Burlington’s positioning leaves it well placed to regain momentum when conditions stabilize. And given the current environment, strong overall traffic growth coupled with modest same-store declines represents a relatively resilient performance.
When economic pressure builds, off-price tends to win. And though Ross may be leading the pack today, Marmaxx and Burlington are both well positioned to regain strong traffic momentum as conditions evolve. With consumer confidence still strained and excess inventory likely to remain plentiful, the structural tailwinds supporting off-price remain firmly in place.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Overall visits to U.S. grocery stores rose 1.7% year over year (YoY) in Q1 2026, extending a streak of growth that now spans four consecutive quarters. At the category level, most of this growth was driven by expansion, as the average number of visits per location remained essentially flat YoY.
Still, a deeper look at the data reveals meaningful variation across segments and regions, shedding light on the dynamics shaping grocery traffic in 2026.
Grocery visit growth has been positive in every quarter over the past year, peaking at 3.3% YoY in Q4 before moderating to 1.7% in Q1 2026. Per-location visits, however, lagged overall growth throughout the analyzed period, increasing just 0.2% YoY in Q1 2026.
The takeaway? New store openings, rather than stronger performance from existing locations, are accounting for most of the category's recent visit gains.
That said, the combination of ongoing expansion and steady performance at existing locations points to resilient underlying demand. Even as mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, and e-commerce players compete for share, dedicated grocery stores remain a fundamentally durable format.
The relatively flat nationwide per-location performance also masks some regional variation. Several statewide markets – including Montana, Colorado, Maine, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Indiana – saw per-location visit growth exceeding 2.0% YoY in Q1 2026.
This divergence suggests that local dynamics, ranging from population growth and suburban expansion to competitive intensity and store rollout strategies, are playing a role in shaping performance. In other words, while national trends appear stable, grocery remains a highly localized business where market-specific factors can drive outperformance.
A closer look at different grocery segments reveals further variation.
Fresh-format grocers like Trader Joe's and Sprouts led in overall visit growth, highlighting a rapidly expanding segment that is capturing a growing share of traffic while also maintaining solid YoY visit performance at existing stores. Value grocers also saw expansion-driven gains, though per-location traffic was softer at -2.8% YoY. And though traditional grocery chains have not been on an expansion trajectory, they slightly outperformed fresh-format players on a per-location basis, with visits up 1.5% YoY. For a segment that has lagged peers for several quarters, this represents notable improvement.
What's behind traditional groceries’ emerging store-level strength?
One explanation may be traditional grocers' success in capturing the short trip – the fastest-growing type of grocery visit. Whether driven by curbside pickup or quick fill-in runs for a few missing items or an inexpensive prepared lunch, these visits are becoming increasingly common. And a look at relative category-wide visit share shows that traditional grocers are the only grocery segment over-indexing on sub-10 minute visits, capturing a greater share of short visits than of overall grocery traffic in Q1 2026.
This suggests that habit, proximity, and assortment breadth may matter more than price positioning when a shopper just needs a few items fast. Traditional grocery shoppers may also be more likely than value-oriented shoppers to use curbside pickup – a service that may come with markups or additional fees – while fresh and specialty shoppers may be more inclined to browse in-store.
The Q1 2026 grocery landscape is defined by steady but uneven growth. New store expansion is fueling topline gains, while performance varies across regions and formats. At the same time, the rise of short, convenience-driven trips is subtly reshaping the competitive landscape – favoring retailers that can deliver speed, accessibility, and consistency over those competing primarily on price or experiential differentiation.
So is traditional grocery making a comeback? Not in the sense of reclaiming overall growth leadership. But in some of the areas that increasingly matter, traditional grocers are carving out a durable and defensible role.
Will traditional grocery retailers continue to thrive as the year wears on? Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Warehouse clubs continue to benefit from their strong value proposition, sustaining meaningful visit growth even amid macro uncertainty. And elevated fuel prices are adding another tailwind, driving increased traffic to wholesale club gas stations. Leveraging location intelligence, we examined recent performance for Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club.
Recent visit data for BJ’s, Costco, and Sam’s Club reveals how the warehouse club model continues to resonate with consumers. All three chains sustained year-over-year (YoY) visit growth over the past six months, and while growth moderated briefly in March 2026, a rebound in April suggests the slowdown was more calendar-driven than demand-driven. March 2026 included one fewer Saturday than the prior year – a small shift that can have a significant impact on time-rich retail formats.
Real estate strategy also emerged as a key factor shaping traffic trends across the three wholesalers. Costco and BJ’s both saw gains in overall visits alongside same-store growth, indicating that performance was supported by a combination of new unit expansion and growing demand at existing locations. Costco added 15 domestic warehouses in fiscal 2025 and appears on track for a similar pace in fiscal 2026, while BJ's opened seven clubs in fiscal 2025 and and is signaling a more aggressive expansion over the next two years, including its recent entry into the Dallas-Fort Worth market.
Sam's Club, by contrast, added just one new location in its fiscal 2026 (ended January 2026) while completing 14 remodels – pointing to a strategy centered on optimizing its existing footprint. This emphasis is reflected in the close alignment between overall and same-store visits, suggesting that growth is being driven primarily by improvements within the current store base. Still, Sam’s Club’s pipeline includes at least one upcoming opening, which could indicate a gradual shift toward expansion – potentially blending its optimization strategy with the unit growth that has supported momentum for its peers.
Beyond the traffic inside wholesale clubs, an equally notable story is unfolding at their gas stations. As the chart below shows, visits to BJ’s Gas, Costco Gas, and Sam’s Club Fuel accelerated in early March 2026, aligning with a sharp rise in fuel prices amid the Iran War. Perhaps expectedly, this demonstrates that competitively priced fuel is a meaningful traffic driver during periods of elevated gas prices – reinforcing the value proposition of warehouse club memberships. If fuel prices remain high, members may be more inclined to consolidate shopping trips around fuel fill-ups, potentially boosting both gas station traffic and in-club spending.
Diving deeper into March and April visitor patterns offer further perspective into how fuel prices are influencing wholesale club member behavior. Across all three wholesale gas chains, the share of visitors who visited at least twice rose in both March and April 2026 compared to 2025.
Rising visit frequency suggests that increased traffic is not being driven by one-time responses to pricing pressure. Instead, higher fuel prices appear to be prompting members to consistently shift a greater share of their fuel spend into the wholesale ecosystem.
And more frequent fill-ups increase the likelihood that gas trips are paired with in-club shopping, suggesting that habits formed in response to pricing dynamics at the pump may ultimately drive increases in visit frequency and in-store spend.
In the wholesale club space, core value perception is sustaining steady visit growth, while elevated fuel prices are amplifying that advantage by driving incremental traffic and frequent visits to gas stations.
In this context, wholesale fuel is transforming club-member behavior and has the potential to drive deeper, long-term engagement with the retailers as a whole.
Will these trends continue in the months ahead? Check back in with The Anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Brick-and-mortar retail foot traffic continues to demonstrate notable resilience despite rising gas prices and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, with April 2026 marking the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) gains. March's relative softness now looks like the product of calendar shifts rather than the start of a structural decline – retail visits essentially held last year's levels despite one fewer Saturday and store closures for Easter. And April's subsequent rebound reinforces that underlying consumer demand remains intact, with shoppers continuing to show up to physical stores even as they contend with elevated prices at the pump and an uncertain economic backdrop.
But the real star of April's consumer data was Placer's Ecommerce Distribution Index, which registered a massive 20.5% YoY increase in foot traffic, following an already strong 16.3% gain in March – likely driven in part by elevated gas prices nudging some consumers online.
The traffic data indicates that both physical and digital retail grew simultaneously despite historically weak consumer sentiment – suggesting that consumers are saying one thing and doing another, and that underlying demand may be more durable than the headlines suggest.
Meanwhile, manufacturing foot traffic came under renewed pressure in April 2026 following two months of tentative stabilization. This softness in physical activity persists despite a wave of headline-grabbing investment announcements: private-sector U.S. manufacturing commitments have surpassed $1.6 trillion and Q1 2026 industrial net absorption rose 52% YoY, the strongest start to a year since 2023. The disconnect reflects a fundamental shift underway – leasing demand is increasingly concentrated in automation-ready, high-clearance facilities, meaning more square footage is being absorbed with fewer workers walking through the door.
For more retail and CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
1. Experiential and niche retailers can deliver anchor-level traffic. At Towne East Square Mall, the addition of a Scheels in 2023 significantly increased foot traffic and long-distance travelers, while Barnes & Noble at Coronado Center in Albuquerque has become a key driver of both foot traffic and higher-spend demographics.
2. Size isn’t everything – especially for dining venues. At Glendale Galleria and Northridge Fashion Center, smaller restaurants attracted more foot traffic than some traditional anchors.
3. Refocusing on tenants’ actual traffic contributions enables a flexible anchor approach. Balancing weekend draws like Scheels with weekday favorites such as Costco or Chick-fil-A can help maintain steady visitor flow throughout the week. Similarly, onsite fitness clubs can shift traffic to earlier in the day – an opportunity to adjust store hours and capture additional morning shoppers.
4. Temporary pop-ups can form an integral part of a visit-focused anchor strategy. The Barbie Dreamhouse Living Truck Tour generates mall visit spikes well above typical Saturday levels. Operators can integrate these events into their overall anchor strategies, offering preferential terms to high-performing pop-ups.
5. New tenants can boost traffic for existing stores in similar categories. After Aldi joined Green Acres Commons in February 2020, visits to an existing BJ’s Wholesale Club trended upwards. This synergy highlights how overlapping audiences can become a strength, creating a larger overall customer base.
Malls, it seems, are cool once again. After languishing in the wake of the pandemic, shopping centers across the country are thriving – reinventing themselves as prime “third places” where people can hang out, shop, and grab a bite to eat.
One key driver behind this resurgence is a shift in how malls view their anchor tenants. While traditional mainstays like Macy’s and JCPenney still play an important role, specialized offerings – from popular eateries to fitness centers and immersive retailtainment destinations – are increasingly taking center stage. These attractions maximize the experiential value that brick-and-mortar venues can deliver, driving visits and sales for the center as a whole.
Against this backdrop, this report leverages the latest location intelligence data to explore the types of tenants that can function as mall anchors in 2025. Should mall operators still focus on general merchandisers to draw crowds, or can dining chains and more niche retailers also do the job? How important is square footage in identifying the anchor-like tenants in a shopping center? And how can a visit-focused approach help mall operators select effective anchor or anchor-like tenants – whether to fill big-box spaces or to leverage the leasing perks traditionally reserved for major large-format chains?
One of the most important functions of a mall anchor is to ensure steady visitation – providing its smaller tenants with a constant flow of potential customers. And as the role of the mall continues to evolve, analyzing the actual foot traffic impacts of different types of businesses can help identify the kinds of non-traditional anchors best suited to fulfill that purpose.
Experiential venues, for example, are particularly well-poised to serve as powerful anchors in today’s retail environment – as illustrated by the visit surge experienced by Towne East Square Mall in Wichita, KS following the addition of a Scheels in July 2023.
By blending traditional retail with immersive experiences, Scheels has emerged as a true experiential destination. And this pull has also helped the mall draw more long-distance visitors willing to travel to enjoy Scheels’ offerings. In 2024, 41.9% of the mall’s customers traveled more than 50 miles to visit, compared to 35.8% back in 2018 when Sears occupied the same lot.
Traditionally, anchors aimed to please the widest possible audiences – with department stores, big-box chains, and grocery stores leading the way. But visitation data shows that niche concepts can also deliver anchor-level traffic if they’re compelling enough to attract dedicated fans.
The experience of the Barnes & Noble at Coronado Center in Albuquerque, NM is a case in point. After being written off as all but obsolete, Barnes & Noble has staged an impressive comeback in recent years, finding success through a more curated, localized approach to book selling. And despite not being a formal anchor, the Coronado Center Barnes & Noble accounted for 7.9% of visits to the mall in 2024 – outperforming both Macy’s and JCPenney.
Year-over-year data also shows foot traffic surging at the Coronado Center Barnes & Noble, lifting overall visitation to the mall. And demographic data reveals that the bookstore draws a more affluent audience than either the center as a whole or the two department stores – attracting a crowd with more spending power.
This example also illustrates how smaller tenants can sometimes draw larger crowds. Even though Barnes & Noble occupies a smaller onsite space than either Macy’s or JCPenney, it is proving a powerful visit driver out of proportion to its physical size.
Dining chains are also adept at punching above their square footage – often attracting crowds disproportionate to their size.
Despite its relatively small footprint, for example, the In-N-Out Burger at Glendale Galleria drew an impressive 8.6% of visits to the mall complex in 2024, outpacing some of the mall’s official anchors like DICK’s Sporting Goods, Macy’s, and JCPenney. Still, the onsite Target drew even larger crowds at 14.4% of visits.
A similar pattern emerged at Northridge Fashion Center, where Porto’s Bakery and Cafe captured a notable 15.6% of visits to the complex in 2024 – more than some of the center’s traditional department stores.
These examples underscore the potential for dining chains, which typically require less space, to serve as micro-anchors by consistently attracting outsized crowds – a key consideration for mall operators looking to sustain visitor traffic.
Refocusing on tenants’ actual foot traffic contributions also opens the door to a more flexible and dynamic approach to anchor selection and management – one that considers each venue’s unique visitation patterns.
Seasonal factors, for example, can make certain anchors more powerful at specific times of the year, while different venues shine on particular days of the week.
At Jordan Creek Town Center in West Des Moines, Iowa, for instance, Scheels and Costco each delivered just under 20.0% of the complex’s overall visits in 2024. But the two retailers’ daily patterns differed significantly: Scheels saw bigger crowds on weekends, while Costco was the primary weekday destination.
Understanding differences like these can help operators optimize their tenant mix to maintain a balanced flow of shoppers throughout the week.
Another example of the impact of differing weekday traffic patterns is offered by the impact of mall-based Chick-fil-A locations on the distribution of mall visits throughout the week.
Despite its relatively small size, Chick-fil-A draws substantial traffic to malls. And after adding Chick-fil-A locations, both Northridge and Miller Hill Malls saw meaningful drops in the share of visits to the centers taking place on Sundays – even as the wider indoor mall segment saw slight upticks.
Recognizing this trend could prompt mall operators to compensate by adding more weekend-friendly traffic drivers – or to lean into this distinction by taking additional steps to bolster the mall’s role as a go-to weekday destination.
The power of different mall traffic magnets also varies throughout the day. Increasingly, shopping centers are turning to fitness centers as experiential anchors. And since many people work out early in the morning, these gyms are having a significant impact on the distribution of mall visits across dayparts.
The addition of gyms to Northshore Mall in Peabody, MA and Jackson Crossing in Jackson, MI, for instance, led to a significant rise in visits between 7:00 AM and noon. And though the rest of the stores in these malls typically open at 10:00 or 11:00 AM, this shift presents the centers with a significant opportunity.
By adjusting opening hours to accommodate these early-morning patrons, malls can capitalize on this added traffic, driving up visits and sales for relevant tenants – especially health-focused retailers such as juice bars and sporting goods stores.
Adopting a broader, visit-focused view of anchoring also allows mall operators to apply some of the strategies typically reserved for anchors to non-conventional traffic-generating businesses, to ensure a consistent flow of traffic year-round.
Pop-up stores and events, for example, generally don’t follow the same seasonal trends as other retailers – instead, they generate short-term visit boosts during their runs, whenever in the year that may be. And a visit-focused anchor strategy can leverage some of the perks traditionally reserved for anchor tenants – such as preferential leasing terms – to complement traditional full-time anchors during slower retail periods.
The Barbie Dreamhouse Living Truck Tour is a prime example of a traffic-driving pop-up. By bringing exclusive merchandise to malls across the U.S., the truck generates plenty of buzz, drawing crowds eager to snatch up limited-edition items and immerse themselves in all things Barbie. As a result, malls hosting the tour often see significant visit spikes, with foot traffic surging well above typical Saturday levels. Well-timed pop-ups like these can help balance out traffic throughout the year, offsetting traditional slow periods.
A visit-focused approach to anchor management can also help mall operators assess the potential impact of new tenants on existing stores operating in similar categories. For example, mall owners often worry that new tenants operating in similar categories might cannibalize existing businesses. But a visit-focused anchor approach reveals that a well-chosen addition can sometimes benefit current tenants – especially if they cater to similar audiences.
In February 2020, for instance, value supermarket Aldi opened at Green Acres Commons in Valley Stream, NY – a center that already hosted budget-friendly BJ’s Wholesale Club. While BJ’s visits were relatively flat in 2018 and 2019, they began to rise after Aldi’s opening (and following a pandemic-induced dip). Cross-shopping data also shows that Aldi customers were more likely to visit BJ’s than the average Green Acres patron last year.
This synergy may be due in part to the two retailers’ similar visitor bases: In 2024, the Aldi and BJ’s stores in Green Acres Common drew shoppers with comparable economic profiles. This suggests that overlapping audiences can become a strength if aligned brands attract new shoppers, who then explore multiple stores in the same center.
Looking ahead, effective mall anchors will be defined less by physical footprint and more by their capacity to maintain consistent, valuable foot traffic. While traditional department stores remain pivotal, smaller or niche brands can often rival – or surpass – large-format retailers. And by thinking out of the anchor box and choosing tenants that cultivate a balanced visitor flow and align with local preferences, operators can position their centers as true go-to destinations.
1. Shoppers are taking more, shorter trips to grocery stores. Over the past 12 months, grocery stores have experienced nearly uniform YoY visit growth. And since COVID, the segment has steadily increased both overall visits and average visits per location – even as average dwell times have consistently declined.
2. Grocery stores are holding ground against fierce competition. Despite growing inroads by discount and dollar stores, wholesale clubs, and general mass retailers like Walmart and Target, grocery stores have maintained their share of the overall food-at-home visit pie over the past several years.
3. Grocery visit share is most pronounced on the coasts. In Q1 2025, grocery stores claimed the majority of food-at-home visits on the West Coast, in parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Mountain Regions, and in Florida and Michigan.
4. Fresh-format, value, and ethnic grocery visit shares are growing at the expense of traditional chains. And in Q1 2025, fresh-format and value grocers outperformed the other sub-segments with positive YoY visit and average visit-per-location growth.
5. Hispanic markets are on the rise. Though the broader ethnic grocery sub-segment was essentially flat YoY in Q1 2025, Hispanic-focused stores recorded increases in both visits and visits per location – and have been steadily growing visits since 2021.
6. Smaller formats for the win. In Q1 2025, smaller-format grocery store locations outpaced mid-sized and larger-format ones, underscoring the power of compact spaces to deliver significant foot traffic gains.
Brick-and-mortar grocery stores face an uncertain market in 2025. Rising food-at-home prices (eggs, anyone?), declining consumer confidence, and increased competition from discounters, superstores, and online shopping channels all present the segment with significant headwinds. Yet even in the face of these challenges, the sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience – growing its foot traffic and holding onto visit share.
What strategies have helped the segment navigate today’s tough market? And how can industry stakeholders make the most of the opportunities in the current market? This report draws on the latest location intelligence to uncover the trends shaping grocery retail in early 2025 – highlighting insights to help key players make informed, data-driven decisions on store formats, product offerings, and more.
The grocery segment has experienced nearly uniform positive year-over-year (YoY) growth over the last 12 months. This sustained performance in the face of inflation and other headwinds highlights the underlying strength of the category.
What is driving this growth? Since 2022, the grocery segment has seen consistent overall visit growth that has outpaced increases in visits per location – a sign that chain expansion has played a key role in the category’s success. But the average number of visits to each grocery store has also been on the rise, indicating that the segment continues to expand without cannibalizing existing store traffic.
At the same time, visitor dwell times have been steadily dropping since 2021. This shift appears to reflect a trend towards multiple, shorter trips by inflation-wary consumers eager to avoid large, costly carts or cherry pick deals across various retailers. Many shoppers may also be placing more bulk orders online and supplementing those deliveries with brief in-store stops for additional items as needed.
The bottom line: Shoppers are taking more grocery trips overall each year, but spending less time in-store during each visit. Operators can respond to this trend by optimizing layouts and promoting “grab-and-go” areas for an even more efficient quick-trip experience.
Visit share data also shows that despite fierce competition from discount and dollar stores, wholesalers, and general mass retailers, the grocery segment has steadfastly preserved its share of the overall food-at-home visit pie.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2025, wholesale clubs and discount and dollar stores increased their share of total food-at-home visits, gains that have come primarily at the expense of Walmart and Target. Meanwhile, grocery outlets have held firm – despite some fluctuations over the years, their Q1 2019 visit share remained essentially unchanged in Q1 2025.
So even as consumers flock to alternative food purveyors in search of lower prices, grocery stores aren’t losing ground – and on a nationwide level, they remain the biggest player by far in the food-at-home shopping space.
Still, grocery store visit share varies significantly by region. On the West Coast, in parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Mountain regions, and in Florida and Michigan, grocery stores accounted for the majority of food-at-home visits in Q1 2025. Oregon (61.6%) and Washington (59.6%) led the pack, followed by Massachusetts (59.2%), Vermont (58.5%), and California (57.9%). Meanwhile, in West Virginia, Arkansas, South Dakota, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and Mississippi, less than 30% of food-at-home traffic went to grocery stores, with more shoppers in these regions turning to general mass retailers or discounters.
Grocery store operators in lower-grocery-share regions may choose to focus on price competitiveness and convenient store locations to capture more foot traffic from competitors in the space.
Which types of grocery stores are thriving the most? The grocery segment is diverse, encompassing traditional grocery chains like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B; budget-oriented value chains such as Aldi, WinCo Foods, Grocery Outlet Bargain Market, and Market Basket; fresh-format specialty brands like Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, and Sprouts Farmers Market; and numerous ethnic grocers.
Examining shifts in visit share among these various grocery store segments shows that traditional grocery still dominates, commanding over 70.0% of total grocery store foot traffic.
Still, over the past several years, traditional grocers have gradually ceded ground to other segments – especially value chains. Budget grocers saw a temporary surge in visits during the panic-buying days of early 2020 – and have been more gradually gaining visit share since Q1 2023. . Fresh-format banners, which lost ground in 2021 after a Q1 2020 bump, in the wake of COVID, have also been on the upswing and appear poised to capture additional visit share in the coming months and years. And though ethnic grocers still account for a relatively small portion of the overall market, they have slightly increased their visit share, reflecting heightened consumer interest in these specialized offerings.
Recent performance metrics point to a bifurcation in the grocery market similar to that observed in other retail categories. In Q1 2025, fresh-format and value retailers – which appeal, respectively, to the most and least affluent visitor bases – saw the greatest growth in both overall visits and average visits per location.
This trend highlights the power of both value and health-focused quality to motivate consumers in 2025. And grocery players that can meet these needs will be well-positioned for success in the months ahead.
One factor fueling fresh-format’s success may be its role as a convenient, relatively affordable midday lunch destination for the remote work crowd.
In Q1 2025, consumers working from home accounted for 20.2% of fresh-format grocery stores’ captured market – a significantly higher share than any other analyzed grocery segment. These stores also tended to be busier midday than the other segments. Remote workers may be stopping by to grab a quick bite – and some may be choosing to do their grocery shopping during their lunch break when stores are less crowded.
This finding suggests an opportunity for grocery operators across all segments to develop or enhance in-store salad bars and quick-serve sections to tap into the lunch rush. Likewise, CPG companies may benefit from developing more ready-made, nutritious meal options that align with these midday dining habits.
Though the broader ethnic grocery category remained essentially flat in Q1 2025, Hispanic-focused grocers emerged as a sub-segment to watch. Both overall visits and average visits per location to these stores have been on the rise since 2021.
This robust demand presents an opportunity for CPG brands and grocers across segments to expand Hispanic-focused offerings, capturing a slice of this growing market.
Finally, store size matters more than ever in 2025. During the first quarter of the year, smaller format grocery store locations (locations under 30K square feet, across different chains) outpaced larger stores with a 3.2% YoY jump in visits, showing that bigger isn’t always better in the grocery store space.
This pattern aligns with the decrease in dwell times noted above – shoppers may be making shorter trips to smaller, more convenient grocery store locations. These quick errands are ideal for picking up a few items to supplement online orders, shopping multiple deals, or sourcing specialty products unavailable at larger grocery destinations. And to lean into this trend, grocery operators might consider testing neighborhood “micro-store” concepts, focusing on curated selections, and offering convenient parking or pickup to match consumer preferences for targeted purchases and quicker trips.
Location intelligence reveals a growing, dynamic grocery landscape which is holding its ground in the face of increased competition. Shorter trips, busier lifestyles, and changing work routines are reshaping in-store experiences. And grocery players that refine their store formats, target both lunch and on-the-go shoppers, and adapt to shifting demographics can position themselves to thrive in this competitive sector. As the market continues to evolve, continuous attention to these changing patterns will be key to maintaining and expanding market share.
1. Elevated visitor frequency could mean that gym-goers are getting more value out of their memberships and are therefore more likely to stay signed up. Between January and March 2025, all of the gym chains analyzed had a higher share of frequent visitors (those who visited about once a week) than in the equivalent month of 2024.
2. Fitness chains at all price tiers need to be strategic about the value they offer and the amenities that can engage budget-conscious consumers. Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, the captured trade area median HHI increased for all fitness subsegments – value-priced, mid-range, and high-end – suggesting that consumers swapped pricier gym memberships for more affordable options.
3. Close attention should be paid to how long visitors spend at fitness chains in order to reduce crowding and bottlenecks. Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, the average visit length increased at value-priced, mid-range, and high-end gyms. Floorplan and equipment improvements could be considered, as well as having trainers available to help gym-goers streamline workouts.
4. Gyms can use hourly visit data to better serve their members or use promotions to stabilize facility usage throughout the day. In Q1 2025, high-end chains received a larger share of morning visits while value-priced and mid-range fitness chains received larger shares of evening visits.
Like many industries in recent years, the fitness sector has experienced significant shifts in consumer behavior. From the rise in home workouts during the pandemic to the strain of hyper-inflation, foot traffic trends to gyms and health clubs have been as dynamic as the consumers they serve.
This report leverages location analytics to explore the consumer trends driving visitation in the fitness space and provides actionable insights for industry stakeholders.
The pandemic drove several shifts in the fitness space. Widespread gym closures led consumers to embrace home-based workouts, while demand for all things fitness increased due to an emphasis on overall health and wellness. This subsequently drove a renewed interest in gym-based workouts as restrictions lifted – even as some consumers remained committed to their home workout routines.
In Q1 2023, visits to fitness chains surpassed Q1 2019 levels for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, a sign that consumers had recommitted to out-of-home fitness. And in Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, fitness chains saw further growth, climbing to 12.8% and 15.5% above the Q1 2019 baseline, respectively.
Several factors have likely driven consumers’ return to gyms and health clubs, including the desire for both social connection and professional-grade facilities difficult to replicate at home. The steep increase in cost of living has likely also played a role, since consumers cutting back on discretionary spending can enjoy multiple outings and a range of recreational activities at the gym for one monthly fee.
Zooming in on weekly visits to the fitness space in Q1 2025 reveals the industry’s exceptional strength and resilience in the early part of the year.
The fitness industry experienced YoY visit growth nearly every week of Q1 2025 (and 2.4% YoY visit growth overall) with only minor visit gaps the weeks of January 20th, 2025 and February 17th, 2025 – likely due to extreme weather that prevented many Americans from hitting the gym.
And the fitness industry’s weekly visit growth appeared to strengthen throughout the quarter, defying the typical waning of New Year's resolutions. This could indicate that gym visits haven't plateaued and that consumers are demonstrating greater commitment to their fitness routines compared to last year.
Diving into visitation patterns for leading fitness chains highlights how increased visitor frequency drove foot traffic growth in Q1 2025.
Fitness chains tend to receive the most visits during the first months of the year as consumers recommit to health and wellness in their post-holidays New Year’s resolutions. And not only do more people hit the gym – analyzing the data reveals that gym-goers also typically work out more frequently during this period. Zooming in on 2025 so far suggests that consumers are especially committed to their fitness routines this year: Leading gyms saw an increase in the proportion of frequent visitors (4+ times a month) in Q1 2025 compared to the already significant percentage of frequent visitors in the first quarter of 2024.
Elevated visitor frequency could mean that gym-goers are getting more value out of their memberships than last year, and are therefore more likely to stay signed up throughout the year.
At the same time, the data also reveals that – contrary to what may be expected – a fitness chain’s share of frequent visitors appears to be independent of the cost of membership associated with the club: Life Time, a high-end club, and EōS Fitness, a value-priced gym, had the highest shares of frequent visitors between January 2024 and March 2025. This suggests that factors other than cost, such as location convenience, class offerings, community, or individual motivation, might be more influential in driving frequent gym attendance.
Segmenting the fitness industry by membership price tiers – value-priced, mid-range, and high-end – can reveal further insights on current consumer behavior around out-of-home fitness.
In Q1 2025, the captured market* median household income (HHI) was higher than the nationwide median HHI ($79.6K/year) across all price tiers – suggesting that even value-priced fitness chains are attracting a relatively affluent audience. This could indicate that gym memberships are somewhat of a luxury and that consumers from lower-income households gave up their gym memberships altogether as they tightened their purse strings.
Analyzing the historical data since Q1 2022 also reveals that the captured market median HHI has risen consistently over the past couple of years with the largest median HHI increase observed in the captured trade areas of high-end fitness chains. This suggests that middle-income households – that are more sensitive to the rising cost of living – likely swapped pricier gym memberships for more affordable options in recent years.
These metrics indicate that fitness chains at all price tiers need to think strategically about the value they offer and the amenities that can engage budget-conscious consumers who are carefully weighing every expenditure.
*Captured trade area is obtained by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) from which the chain draws its visitors according to their share of visits to the chain and thus reflects the population that visits the chain in practice.
Fitness clubs of all types need to manage their capacity to ensure health and safety standards and a positive experience for members. And understanding the average amount of time visitors spend at the gym can help fitness chains at every price point keep their finger on the pulse of their facilities.
Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, the average visit length increased at value-priced, mid-range, and high-end gyms. Value-priced gyms experienced the largest increase in average visit length – from 72.4 minutes in Q1 2022 to 74.0 minutes in Q1 2025 – perhaps due to their relatively lower-income visitors spending more time enjoying club amenities after cutting back on other forms of recreation. Meanwhile, mid-range and high-end gyms experienced relatively modest increases in average visit length, which were higher to begin with – likely due to their ample class and spa offerings and overall inviting, upscale spaces.
Elevated average visit length could mean that visitors are well-engaged and less likely to cancel their memberships. But as overall gym visits are on the rise, fitness chains may want to pay close attention to how long visitors spend at the facility. Floorplan and equipment improvements could be considered in order to reduce bottlenecks, and having trainers available to instruct on equipment usage and workout technique could help gym-goers streamline workouts.
Along with average visit length, understanding the daypart in which they receive the most visits is another way that fitness chains can improve efficiency and prevent overcrowding. And analysis of the hourly visits to fitness sub-segments revealed that some fitness segments receive more morning visits while others are more popular in the evenings.
In Q1 2025, high-end chains received a larger share of visits between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. (19.7%) than value-priced and mid-range fitness chains (11.6% and 11.8%, respectively). Meanwhile, value-priced and mid-range fitness chains received larger shares of visits between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. (21.9% and 22.2%) than high-end chains (16.5%).
Gyms can leverage this data to better serve members, for instance by scheduling more classes during peak hours. Value-priced and mid-range gyms, which saw a larger disparity between shares of morning and evening visits in Q1 2025, might also consider incentivizing off-peak usage through discounted morning memberships or early-bird snack bar deals.
The fitness space appears to be in good shape in 2025. Visits have made a full recovery from the pandemic era and still continue to grow, indicating strong consumer demand for out-of-home workouts. And using location intelligence to analyze the behavior and demographics of visitors to gyms at different price points can help identify opportunities for driving even greater success.
