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As we enter the final quarter of 2025, the retail landscape has been defined by an eventful year in consumer behavior – and by more uncertainty heading into the holidays than in recent memory. The year has been marked by volatile retail traffic, reflecting a consumer base grappling with macroeconomic uncertainty, the impact of tariffs, and a growing insistence on deep discounts.
This choppiness is clearly illustrated in the year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit trends for our Placer 100 Retail Index, as shown below. But despite the turbulence, our visitation data reveals some key trends that are already painting a clear picture of what to expect this holiday season.
One notable pattern is the growing visibility of a “two-tier economy” – a theme we also explored in our recent look at the restaurant category. Affluent consumers appear confident, largely driven by the "wealth effect." With strong financial markets, a healthy housing market, and the positive impact of recent interest rate cuts, this demographic has seen its net worth grow and continues to spend on discretionary goods and services.
This confidence is clearly visible in our retail visitation data, which shows strong performance in categories catering to higher-income shoppers. Luxury department stores, specialty and fresh-format grocers, and fine-dining restaurants are all experiencing steady traffic, indicating this key consumer group is well-positioned to spend this holiday season.
By contrast, lower- to middle-income households face mounting cost-of-living pressures that have clearly impacted their discretionary spending. As shown in the first graph above, our data shows a notable softening across the broader retail and restaurant landscape in late August, September, and early October as these consumers grapple with economic uncertainty and the initial effects of tariff-related price increases. This cautious stance has prompted a distinct shift in behavior; consumers are not just pulling back, but actively trading down to more affordable retail channels. We've seen this manifest in increased traffic to value-oriented grocers, warehouse clubs, dollar stores, and off-price apparel chains as households look to stretch their budgets.
Softening visitation trends among lower- and middle-income consumers help explain another key trend – the early start to this year’s holiday promotional season, which began as early as September, well before Amazon’s “Big Deal Days” ignited the broader deal-hunting frenzy. Our data indicates this consumer segment is being highly strategic, leading to foot traffic that spikes during major sales events, but remains subdued during non-promotional periods. Consequently, retailers are caught in a promotional arms race, pushing sales earlier than ever in a fierce attempt to attract these value-seeking shoppers and, more importantly, lock in a share of their limited holiday budgets before they are spent elsewhere.
This dynamic creates a precarious balancing act for retailers. A potential slowdown in manufacturing and port activity could lead to inventory challenges, creating a perfect storm when combined with a consumer base conditioned to seek out deep discounts. This environment suggests that precise inventory management and flawless promotional timing won't just be important – they will be the critical factors separating the winners from the losers this holiday season.
Still, promotions don’t just have to be about price cuts. Pop-culture tie-ins and strategic product launches have also proven effective at driving retail traffic this year – and could be particularly impactful during the holiday season.
This holiday season, retailers will be increasingly dependent on affluent consumers, as lower- and middle-income shoppers are forced to balance "needs versus wants." This doesn't mean this group has stopped spending, but that their priorities have shifted. And to succeed this holiday season, retailers will need to meet both sides of the consumer divide – delivering value where it matters most and using strategic, well-timed promotions to drive engagement across income levels.
For more data-driven retail analyses follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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In Q3 2025, consumers continued to pull back on food-away-from-home spending amid rising prices and shifting behaviors, creating persistent pressure across the dining landscape. McDonald’s (MCD) and Chipotle (CMG) each navigated these challenges with mixed results, underscoring the difficulty of sustaining growth even for well-established brands. Both chains showed relative resilience compared to the broader market but faced mounting headwinds that tempered performance and tested their strategic approaches.
The quick-service category is under pressure from multiple fronts: persistent inflation, shifting consumer behavior, value-menu fatigue, and even the growing adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which are dampening demand for food consumed away from home. And McDonald’s has not been immune from these challenges.
The company’s successful Minecraft Meal collaboration helped lift traffic in April, contributing to a 2.5% increase in U.S. comparable sales in Q2 – a welcome rebound from Q1’s 3.6% comp sales decline. But the momentum has been difficult to sustain. Foot traffic lagged 2024 levels throughout the summer – albeit lapping last year’s Summer of Value promotion – and remained sluggish even after the September debut of McDonald’s new Extra Value Meal. In Q3, visits were down 3.5% year over year (YoY), with same-store traffic falling 4.0%, underscoring how difficult it is to reignite growth in 2025 even with special promotions – especially for a chain reliant on a customer base that is less affluent than the national average.
Like McDonald’s, Chipotle has leaned on special promotions, such as its recent “Wear a College Football Jersey” BOGO on September 15, 2025, to help navigate this year’s headwinds. But its primary strategy has been expansion. Since the start of 2024, Chipotle has opened hundreds of new locations, most featuring a Chipotlane drive-thru pickup lane.
And this aggressive growth has helped sustain Chipotle’s momentum. Chain-wide visits have remained positive YoY in most months of 2025 – likely supported by Chipotle’s more affluent customer base. And in Q3, overall visits rose 0.5% YoY ,keeping pace with the broader fast-casual segment, which saw visits grow by 0.7%.
At the same time, same-store visits have trended slightly negative YoY, echoing Q2’s 4.0% decline in comparable sales. This suggests that while new unit growth is cushioning the slowdown, maintaining traffic at established locations remains a challenge. Still, the declines have been relatively modest, highlighting Chipotle’s underlying resilience – especially given the comparison to a particularly strong 2024.
External pressures continue to weigh on the dining sector, and McDonald’s and Chipotle are no exception. Being able to remain nimble and embrace challenges will remain crucial for both chains as Q4 gets underway.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Weekly visits to Placer’s Industrial Manufacturing Index remained below 2024 levels throughout September and into early October. Although trends began to stabilize during the week of September 22nd, activity continued to lag behind last year’s benchmarks – signaling a sustained year-over-year (YoY) slowdown.
These findings align broadly with the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which edged up to 49.1% in September from 48.7% in August – signaling contraction, but at a potentially moderating pace. (Any value below 50 indicates a decline.) Still, sentiment indicators remain mixed, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI easing from 53.0 in August to 52.0 in September – reflecting slower growth but still remaining in expansionary territory.
As shown in the chart above, the slowdown was particularly acute in the auto sector, where U.S. sales forecasts have been revised downward and production figures indicate declining output. The sharp divergence from the overall index beginning the week of September 15th likely also reflects industry-wide disruption following last month’s devastating fire at the Novelis plant in New York, which reverberated throughout the industry.
Beyond short-term disruptions like the Novelis fire and ongoing tariff uncertainty, structural forces tied to AI and automation may also be contributing to the industrial deceleration. Many plants are adopting AI-enabled predictive maintenance, robotics, and remote monitoring, which reduce the need for certain categories of employees. And in autos especially, the shift to EV production and AI-driven retooling may already be visible in lower employee presence.
For more data-driven manufacturing insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
August’s drop in office foot traffic left many wondering – had the return-to-office movement finally hit a wall, or was it just summer taking its usual toll?
We analyzed the latest location analytics to find out.
In September 2025, a wave of new RTO mandates took effect nationwide, with companies from Intel to Toyota requiring employees to spend at least four days per week in the office. And following August’s sharp retreat, September delivered a decisive rebound: Office visits were just 26.3% below 2019 levels – a clear improvement from August and essentially tied with June’s performance.
This suggests that August’s dip was seasonal rather than structural – a reflection of flexible post-pandemic work habits during vacation-heavy periods. As fall routines took hold, RTO momentum strengthened once again, underscoring the nonlinear yet sustained nature of office recovery progress.
To be sure, some of September’s upswing can be chalked up to calendar math – the month had 21 working days, compared to 20 in both September 2024 and 2019. But that extra day alone doesn’t explain the full rebound.
Even when adjusting for working days, September 2025 ranked as the third busiest in-office month since COVID, just behind June and July 2025.
Miami and New York City – two markets where in-person work has firmly reestablished itself as the norm – continued to lead the office recovery in September. In Miami, ongoing corporate migration is reinforcing an “office-first” culture, while in New York, a growing wave of finance-sector mandates is accelerating the push back to the office.
And several other markets also saw significant improvement. Dallas and Atlanta outperformed the nationwide average with office visit gaps just 15.4% and 22.9% below September 2019 levels, respectively. Meanwhile, San Francisco – though still trailing other major markets – closed its post-pandemic gap to 40.2%.
In addition, San Francisco recorded the largest year-over-year gain in office visits this September, outpacing national trends and surpassing more recovered markets.
That combination – still lagging but accelerating rapidly – mirrors what’s happening in the city’s leasing market, where AI-driven demand is fueling fresh activity and major employers are renewing their commitments to the Bay Area. Salesforce’s new multi-year investment in San Francisco further underscores confidence in the city’s long-term role as an innovation hub. And in late August, the city’s municipal workers also returned to the office four days a week, further helping set the tone for a city in the midst of a comeback.
With fall routines reestablished and corporate mandates expanding, the office recovery appears to be regaining momentum.
Will this renewed surge carry through the winter – or will the season’s holidays bring another pause?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven RTO analyses to find out.
**NOTE: Data in the office index has changed due to a regular process of enhancing the list of buildings. This includes the addition of nearly 300 new entities across the index and the removal of buildings that no longer met the necessary standard - either due to renovation or repurposing. In total, the removed assets amounted to less than 5% of the overall count, and the overall trendlines remained the same.
Following a brief lift in spring – when mall visits nationwide rose year-over-year (YoY) across all formats – the Placer.ai Mall Index showed momentum fading through the summer and softening further into fall.
Indoor malls registered slight year-over-year (YoY) visit upticks in July and August, but saw visits drop 1.9% YoY in September. Meanwhile, open-air centers and outlet malls, which maintained minor visit gaps in the summer, saw these widen to 1.7% and 6.8%, respectively, in September. Some of this decline can be attributed to a calendar shift: September 2025 had one fewer Sunday than the same month in 2024, a change likely to hit outlet malls the hardest. (So far this year, 18.2% of outlet mall visits have occurred on Sundays, compared to just 16.0% for indoor malls and 15.4% for open-air centers). But the September drop also signals that malls’ summer slowdown isn’t over.
Still, zooming out to quarterly visitation patterns shows that YoY changes in foot traffic have remained relatively modest across mall types since the start of 2025. In Q3 2025, visits to indoor malls were down just 0.1% compared to 2024, while visits to open-air shopping centers and outlet malls dipped just 1.1% and 2.8%, respectively. Given the macroeconomic headwinds that have challenged retail this year – including persistent inflation, tariffs, and higher living costs – these are mild declines.
And with the all-important holiday season approaching, retailers have an opportunity to shift the narrative. Strategic promotions, in-store experiences, and omnichannel integration could help convert cautious consumer sentiment into stronger end-of-year traffic.
Even so, despite relative stability in the sector, outlet malls have underperformed other mall types for YoY visits since the start of the year. The format’s steeper YoY declines likely reflect its stronger appeal to value-focused consumers – shoppers who are increasingly turning to large discounters and online bargain platforms.
Analyzing the three mall types’ trade areas with demographics from STI: PopStats shows that outlet malls attract a higher share of lower- to middle-income consumers than other mall formats. Over the past 12 months, 43.8% of households within outlet malls’ captured markets earned less than $75K annually, compared to 40.8% for indoor malls and 37.8% for open-air shopping centers. These shoppers are more likely to be watching their budgets (including for transportation) and choosing more convenient off-price alternatives such as T.J. Maxx, Ross Dress for Less, Burlington, Marshalls, or HomeGoods – all of which saw consistently steady YoY visits throughout the summer and early fall, as shown in the chart below.
Outlet malls also tend to offer fewer of the experiential elements – dining, entertainment, and events – that have helped other mall types regain momentum, leaving them struggling to differentiate and sustain consistent foot traffic. At the same time, shoppers have become more selective, turning to malls for quick, mission-driven visits rather than leisurely outings, a shift that is also reflected in shorter visit durations.
Although September capped off a sluggish summer, the broader picture offers reason for cautious optimism. Year-to-date performance has remained relatively stable, suggesting that underlying consumer demand remains intact, even if somewhat restrained.
If retailers and mall operators can re-engage shoppers through compelling promotions, festive in-person activations, and other special draws, the upcoming holiday season could still outperform expectations.
For more data-driven shopping center insights visit Placer.ai’s free industry trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
One of the hallmarks of Americana is the image of a biker riding fast and free down enormous expanses of American highways. For tens of thousands of motorcycle enthusiasts, nothing compares to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, held annually in Sturgis, South Dakota. In 2025, the event took place between August 1st and August 10th – and the week and a half of food, folks, and festivities drove a massive spike in out-of-market visitors to Sturgis.
Saturday, August 2, was the most popular day of visits, with visits up 14.7% compared to the prior year and up a whopping +549.9% compared to an average Saturday in Sturgis.
One popular place to visit within Sturgis is Lynn’s Dakotamart on Lazelle St, where one can find groceries ranging from NY strip steaks to fresh Midwest watermelon. During the Sturgis motorcycle rally, the store's trade area more than doubled from 15 miles to 33 miles.
Large events like the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally can also hold much promise for brands, as they seek to capture attention from motorcycle devotees. Placer.ai data shows that some of the top-visited places during the 10 days in August include Wells Fargo, McDonald’s, Burger King, Dairy King, Ace Hardware, and restaurant/live venues such as Loud American. The rally also brings an influx of affluent suburban visitors, with nearly 1 in 5 out-of-town visitors with a household income greater than $150K, and 13.4% belonging to the "Wealthy Suburban Families" Spatial.ai segment.
In sum, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is a unique opportunity for local businesses and local and national brands to capitalize on the excitement and celebratory frame of mind of the out-of-town visitors. Many of the guests come with the mindset to enjoy themselves, mingle with others, stay in local lodgings, and even visit shopping centers and eateries that would normally seem a bit further afield but that in the context of riding are just part of the journey itself.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
