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It’s been quite a year for coffee and beverage chains. Heading into the year, we thought the category would see strong visitation trends due to store expansion, return-to-work, menu innovation, migration, and new approaches to promotional strategies. By and large, that has played out, with mid-single-digit visitation growth on a year-over-year basis (excluding January, which was negatively impacted by inclement weather across much of the country, and April, which was impacted by a calendar shift that resulted in four weekends this year versus five in the year-ago period).
Of course, the category has been much more nuanced. Category-leader Starbucks has seen visits moderate, which played a part in one of the more notable leadership changes in the restaurant industry history. However, as we’ve discussed over the past several years, the shift to drive-thru focused coffee and beverage chains has accounted for much of the growth. Below, we’ve presented visits per location for eight of the leading coffee and beverage chains. Drive-thru chains like Dutch Bros., Scooter’s Coffee, 7 Brew Coffee, and Biggby Coffee all remain well above their pre-pandemic visit per location trends, even as they continue to aggressively expand unit openings. On the other hand, traditional players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Tim Hortons, and Caribou Coffee have all seen visit per location declines the past several years.
The success of these emergent competitors will likely result in further changes across Starbucks and other legacy coffee chains. New Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol has already made it clear that, going forward, Starbucks stores will have “a clear distinction between “to-go” and “for-here” service”, and we suspect other chains will follow suit.
For fashion-focused consumers, there’s never been more choices available to shop. While luxury brands and retailers are still viewed as the trend setters, there are many brands in the mid-tier luxury market gaining traction. At a time when perceived value is paramount to shopper decision-making, brands that provide a great experience and on-trend styles that won’t break a budget are winning visits.
Product knowledge, recommendations and styling tips can all be accessed in the digital and social world, which gives smaller brands a fighting chance at connecting with shoppers who may not have stores located near them. Those brands whose social presence also coincides with a physical shopping experience, they’re able to build a cult-like following.
Accessories is a market that’s even further fragmented when it comes to the number of consumer choices, specifically in areas like handbags. Brands that have found their niche in the mid-tier market, like Clare V. and Stoney Clover Lane, have been able to hedge against the headwinds facing most discretionary brands. Although each brand has a handful of locations in comparison to accessory behemoths, their unique selection, brand storytelling and ability to assimilate to local environments have helped them to garner quite the following.
In comparing both brands to other apparel and accessories sectors, they have outperformed the other areas handily throughout 2024. Certainly fashion is very cyclical; one day, a brand is hot, and within a few weeks the craze might be over. However, both of these brands have been around since before the pandemic and continued to climb.
Looking further into Stoney Clover Lane, the brand is known for its colorful nylon pouches, purses and luggage that consumers can customize with a broad assortment of patches. The brand has also had licensing partnerships with brands such as American Girl and Disney.
Its physical retail presence combines experiences and an expansive assortment where consumers can customize their bags in store with patches and also attend local events. The brand has the highest percentage of weekend visits compared to the competitive set, and it’s clear that it’s a destination retailer for visitors.
Stoney Clover Lane’s Nashville outpost, located in the popular 12 South neighborhood, offers the product customization as well as a performance stage to infuse some of the local culture into the store. Looking at the visitor journey for this location, there is a high level of cross visitation to hotels and restaurants, indicating that this store may serve as a destination for out-of-town travelers who want to shop the location. Placer’s Trade Area feature corroborates this, as there is a high concentration of visits from other Southern cities including Atlanta, Birmingham, Dallas and Miami.
Clare V. blends the iconic styles of Los Angeles and Paris into an accessories brand that feels inherently cool. Its retail locations feel like an art museum blended with your best friend’s closet and each store location incorporates the local feel of the neighborhood it inhabits, including iconic locations like the Brentwood Country Mart in Los Angeles.
Clare V.’s Chicago shop draws a more local crowd, with a high level of cross-vistation to and from home as well as transportation services. Other neighborhood shops, restaurants and venues like Wrigley Field also have high levels of cross-visitation for visitors to Clare V.. By entrenching itself into the local look and feel of the neighborhoods it occupies, this national brand still feels like a well kept secret for those passing by. In comparing the trade area of the Chicago location in 2024 and 2023, the brand has been able to expand its reach further in Western Chicago Suburbs this year.
It’s been about a month since Labor Day, so let’s take a look and see how return-to-office (RTO) has been faring year-to-date. A majority of states saw fairly sizable bumps in year-over-year office traffic at the beginning of the year. The return in the state of Washington was particularly pronounced in the first four months of the year, with a 40% increase in January 2024 compared to January 2023.
Texas saw a bit of a decrease in May, June, and August. Overall, Houston and Dallas account for more of the office visits, followed by Austin.
Houston drove a decrease in office visits in the months of May, June, and August, while office visits were largely flat in September, with the exception of Austin, which showed a decline compared to the prior year.
There are multiple reasons potentially driving some of the decreases in Houston. The devastation of Hurricane Harvey in 2017 resulted in a long recovery. Many large companies along the I-10 chose to reduce their office footprint. However, per Avison Young, vacancy rates are lower at trophy assets.
Interestingly, those commuting 10-25 miles away have a lower RTO rate than those living 0-5 miles away, 5-10 miles away, or 25+ miles away. The first two make sense as we generally see higher RTO rates among those living within a closer commuting distance.
Dallas sees a similar pattern, though those who live within 5 miles have returned to office at a considerably higher rate at 85% than those farther afield.
One of the more intriguing patterns we are seeing is in Austin, Texas. Here, the RTO rate is actually higher the longer the commute. This seems rather counterintuitive, as in most locations, highest RTO rates are found the closer one lives to the office. New York is more typical, as we see that people are more likely to come into the office the closer they live.
Austin may, in fact, be a victim of its own success. Per Placer’s Migration Dashboard, its population has skyrocketed in the past few years. With more demand comes higher prices, and as a result, people are forced to move farther out in their quest for homes or more land. On the other hand, Austin traffic is not nearly as bad as some major cities like Los Angeles or New York, so living 25+ miles may not be as daunting a prospect when it comes to commuting.
Another huge factor? The move from California to Austin, Texas for Tesla's HQ means that it is now Austin’s largest employer, surpassing H-E-B, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made it clear that he expects his employees to fully return to office. Both visits and visitors to Giga, Texas have exploded.
With Q4 2024 just underway, retailers are already gearing up for the all-important holiday season. A condensed shopping window – just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year – is prompting many to launch early deals and promotions. And though consumers remain cautious, shoppers are expected to spend more this year than they did in 2023.
But what can recent visitation trends tell us about how this year’s holiday season will really play out? We dove into visit data for various retail categories and chains to try and predict what’s in store for the all-important fourth quarter of 2024.
A look at the overall state of brick-and-mortar retail this year offers a glimpse into what we can expect this holiday season.
Since January 2024, monthly retail foot traffic has generally been on an upswing, with YoY visits up most months since January 2024 – and foot traffic higher than in 2022 or 2019 (pre-pandemic). This steady rise in retail visits signals strong consumer engagement in 2024, setting the stage for what may turn out to be a robust Q4.
Holiday promotions are kicking off early this year, offering customers more time to take advantage of deals and helping retailers navigate supply chain and logistics challenges. And though early sales are nothing new, 2024’s shorter holiday shopping season may suffuse them with more significance than ever.
In 2023, Thanksgiving fell on November 23rd, leaving consumers with 32 days in which to do their holiday shopping. But this year, the holiday will be on November 28th, shortening the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas by five days. To make up for lost time, retailers and consumers alike may embrace an early shopping frenzy, potentially detracting from the power of milestones like Black Friday, Super Saturday, and Christmas Eve Eve.
But a look at consumer behavior during special calendar days this year suggests that traditional retail milestones still very much resonate with customers. On Mother’s Day, Memorial Day, and Labor Day, key industries saw YoY visit boosts, though the magnitude of the increases varied across categories.
On Mother’s Day, for example, the beauty and wellness sector saw a 3.2% YoY increase in visits – highlighting the category’s enduring popularity for grateful offspring seeking to give mom a special gift. But on Memorial Day, department stores had their time in the sun, overshadowing other segments with a 7.2% YoY visit boost.
Overall, these occasions proved particularly effective at driving consumer engagement this year. So whether by targeting big days like Black Friday or planning extended holiday campaigns, the 2024 holiday season gives retailers a great chance to benefit from consumer excitement.
While all retail categories participate in the holiday season's flurry of sales, promotions, and limited-time offers, a select few shine especially bright during this period. These segments’ strong performance can often make up for quieter stretches earlier in the year.
Department stores are prime examples of holiday season winners. An analysis of weekly visits throughout 2023 shows that department stores experience one of the most impressive visits spikes of the holiday season. In the week leading up to Christmas, visits to department stores surged 113.4% compared to a 2023 weekly average – highlighting the segment’s success at positioning itself as a go-to destination for holiday shopping.
Another standout during the holiday season is the hobbies, gifts, and crafts category. Unlike department stores, this category sees a more evenly-distributed rise in foot traffic across Q4, with peaks leading up to Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. This pattern reflects the popularity of holiday-related decorations and gifts, which drive increased visits during these festive periods.
These two powerhouse categories – department stores and hobbies, gifts, and crafts – are poised to dominate the 2024 holiday season, just as they did last year. And with consumer spending expected to rise and foot traffic showing no signs of slowing, both categories have significant potential for even greater success this year.
The upcoming holiday season looks on track to be a big one. Despite the shorter shopping window, retailers are taking steps to maximize shopping opportunities with early promotions. And against the backdrop of this year’s robust consumer engagement – especially around milestones – Q4 is shaping up to be a festive season indeed.
Will retailers rise to the challenge? Follow Placer.ai to see how this holiday season unfolds.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Grocery stores have been on an upward foot traffic trajectory as of late, and Trader Joe’s – with its cult-like following – is often near the top of the pack.
We dove into the location analytics for the chain, exploring its nationwide performance and visitor trends in its home state of California, to uncover what’s behind the grocer’s ongoing success.
Despite positive signs that food-at-home inflation is stabilizing, many consumers are still feeling the pinch of high grocery costs. And with the help of its wide range of premium-quality, private-label products, Trader Joe’s offers an upscale experience at prices that are attractive to value-conscious grocery shoppers.
Perhaps bolstered in part by several new locations, Trader Joe’s year-over-year (YoY) visit growth has outperformed the wider grocery category every month of 2024 so far. And the chain appears to be doubling down on its expansion strategy, with two dozen new stores planned through the end of 2024.
By continuing to meet consumer demand for value and quality, and through the ongoing expansion of its fleet, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain foot traffic growth in the near future.
In addition to competitive pricing and a growing real estate footprint, examining visitor dynamics in California – Trader Joe’s largest market by far – suggests that the chain may be driving success by becoming more shoppers’ principal grocery destination.
Between January and August 2024, California Trader Joe’s experienced YoY visit growth ranging from 3.2% to 11.1% – while YoY foot traffic to the wider grocery segment ranged from -2.7% to 4.6%. And over the same period, the share of Trader Joe’s visitors that also frequented other leading California grocery chains decreased significantly – indicating that TJ’s is making inroads with some of its toughest competition in the state.
Between January and August 2023, for example, 50.1% of visitors to a California Trader Joe’s also visited Ralphs – a share that dropped to 47.1% during the equivalent period of 2024. Similar patterns could be observed for VONS, Sprouts Farmers Market, and even California’s grocery visit leader, Safeway.
This suggests that a growing percentage of Trader Joe’s shoppers may be relying on the chain for more of their essentials – rather than visiting TJ’s in addition to a traditional grocery store.
Diving deeper into the demographic characteristics of visitors to California Trader Joe’s provides further insight into the consumers driving the chain’s statewide YoY visit gains. Analyzing California TJ’s trade areas with data from STI: PopStats reveals that Trader Joe’s drives an outsized share of visits from singles – living on their own or with roommates.
Between January and August 2024, 26.5% of residents in Trader Joe’s California captured market lived in one-person households – compared to a statewide average of 22.9%. Meanwhile, 10.0% of the trade area residents were from non-family households – well above the state average of 8.0%.
This could be partially due to Trader Joe’s ongoing investment in college town locations, as well as its fail-safe frozen food selection – a winner with novice cooks pressed for time or space for meal-prep. Plus, Trader Joe’s boasts cheerfully-themed, seasonal products that change every few months, which may be particularly likely to resonate with college students that follow seasonal rhythms of their own.
Trader Joe’s continues to shine in the grocery space in part due to ongoing consumer demand for value and the chain’s expansion. And in California, a loyal and disproportionately single audience is a significant driver of foot traffic.
For updates and more grocery foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Bowlero Corporation operates more than 350 bowling alleys nationwide, under a portfolio of brands that includes Bowlero and AMF – the company’s two largest chains. How have the bowling alleys performed this year?
We dove into the data to find out.
A look at year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends shows that after a January weather-induced slump and a lackluster three months between February and April 2024, YoY visits to both Bowlero and AMF Bowling Centers picked up major steam. Beginning in May, the two chains saw consistent monthly YoY visit growth ranging from 8.4% to 21.9%.
Fleet expansions undoubtedly contributed to the chains’ summer traffic jumps – but the visit increases were likely also driven by the reintroduction of Bowlero’s popular summer season pass – redeemable across the company’s portfolio of brands – which entitles customers to two free games daily at a center of their choosing. (A premium version can be used at any of the company’s locations.) The pass, which was valid from May 24th to September 2nd, proved to be such a runaway success this year that the company decided to launch a similar promotion for fall. This year’s record-breaking heat may have also contributed to the bowling alleys’ visit boosts – as consumers sought to cool down with indoor activities.
Bowlero and AMF are owned by the same company, but customers seem to interact with each brand slightly differently. Between January and August 2024, AMF attracted a higher share of frequent visitors than Bowlero – perhaps indicating the brand’s positioning as a destination for more serious bowlers and league participants.
On average, 21.4% of AMF’s visitors frequented the chain at least twice a month during the analyzed period – and 8.4% visited at least four times a month. Meanwhile, Bowlero, which touts itself as a “bowling/dining/nightlife experience,” drew smaller shares of frequent visitors – though 16.5% of Bowlero visitors turned out 2+ times a month on average during the analyzed period, and 5.7% visited at least four times a month.
Bowlero, which attracts more casual bowlers than AMF, is also a destination for families. Between January and August 2024, Bowlero’s captured market featured a higher-than-average share of households with children – 28.5%, compared to 26.5% for AMF and a nationwide baseline of 26.9%.
AMF, for its part, was more popular among singles: During the analyzed period, 28.6% of its captured market was made up of one-person households – more than both the nationwide baseline and that of Bowlero (26.7%).
Still, though Bowlero and AMF attract somewhat different audiences, drilling down further into the psychographic segmentation of their captured markets shows that bowling really is an all-American favorite pastime.
During the analyzed period, Bowlero’s was more likely to attract “Young Professionals” and “Near-Urban Diverse Families” – middle-class families living in and around cities – while AMF was more likely to attract upper-middle class, suburban families (“Upper-Suburban Diverse Families”) and households from “Blue Collar Suburbs”. But despite these differences, both chains attracted consumers from a variety of communities, highlighting their broad appeal.
Will consumers continue frequenting bowling alleys as the weather cools down – and will Bowlero’s autumn season pass be as successful as its summer one?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Downtown districts in the nation’s major cities attract domestic travelers all year long with their iconic sights, lively entertainment, and diverse dining offerings. But each hub follows its own rhythm, shaped by distinct seasonal peaks and dips in visitor flow.
This white paper examines downtown hotel visitation patterns in four of the nation’s most popular destinations for domestic tourists: Miami, Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. Focusing on 20 downtown hotels in each city, the analysis explores seasonal variations in domestic travel, city-specific dynamics, and differentiating factors.
Domestic tourism has rebounded strongly in recent years, and hotels in Miami and Chicago have been the biggest beneficiaries. In 2024, visits to analyzed hotels in each of these cities’ downtown areas grew by 8.9% and 7.4%, respectively, compared to 2023. Meanwhile, hotels in downtown and midtown Manhattan saw a more modest 2.0% increase, while Los Angeles experienced a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline in downtown hotel visits.
One factor that may be driving Miami and Chicago’s stronger performance is their higher proportion of long-distance visitors, defined as those visiting from over 250 miles away. Miami remains a top destination for snowbirds and spring breakers, while Chicago serves as a cultural and entertainment hub for the sprawling Midwest. These long-distance leisure travelers may be more likely to splurge on downtown hotel stays during their trips, helping drive hotel visit growth in the two cities.
By contrast, hotels in the Los Angeles and Manhattan city centers drew lower shares of domestic travelers coming from less than 250 miles away. These shorter-haul domestic tourists may be less likely to splurge on downtown hotels than those taking longer vacations. Both cities are also surrounded by numerous regional getaway options that can draw long-haul leisure travelers away from their downtown cores.
Each of the four analyzed cities has its own unique ebbs and flows – and city center hotel visits reflect these patterns. Miami, with its warm, sunny climate, experiences influxes of tourists during the winter and spring, with March seeing the biggest jump in downtown hotel visits last year (13.0% above the monthly visit average). Chicago, which thrives in the summer with its many festivals and events, saw its biggest downtown hotel visit bump in August. Meanwhile, Manhattan experienced a major uptick in December, likely fueled by holiday tourism and New Year celebrations, and Los Angeles visits were highest in the summertime.
What drives these seasonal visit peaks? Miami has long been a top tourism destination, especially in early spring, when snowbirds and spring breakers flock to the city for sun and relaxation. In recent years, the city has seen a rise in short-term domestic tourism, suggesting that the city is becoming increasingly popular for weekend getaways. According to the Placer.ai Tourism Dashboard, the share of domestic tourists staying just one or two nights grew from 71.7% in March 2022 to 78.3% in March 2024.
This shift aligns with an impressive increase in the magnitude of downtown Miami’s springtime hotel visit peak: In March 2022, visits to downtown hotels were 5.0% above the monthly average for the year, a share that more than doubled by 2024 to 12.9%.
These numbers may mean that more people are choosing to head to Miami for a quick break from the cold – and staying in downtown hotels to make the most of their short getaway.
Chicago’s major August visit spike was likely driven by the Windy City’s impressive lineup of major summer festivals, from Lollapalooza to the Chicago Air and Water Show, which draw thousands of attendees from across the country.
Lollapalooza fueled the largest visit spike to the city – between Thursday, August 1st and Sunday, August 4th, visits to downtown Chicago hotels surged between 51.1% and 63.8% above 2024 daily averages for those days of the week. The Air and Water Show and the Chicago Jazz Festival also generated significant hotel visit increases – highlighting the boost these events bring to the city’s tourism and hospitality sector.
The Big Apple draws a diverse mix of visitors throughout the year. But in December – the city’s peak tourist season – visitors pour in from all over the country to skate in Rockefeller Center, browse Fifth Avenue’s festive window displays and experience the city’s unique holiday magic.
And analyzing data from hotels in midtown and downtown Manhattan reveals a striking shift in the types of visitors who stay in the heart of NYC during the holiday season. While visitors from other urban centers dominated downtown hotel stays throughout most of the year – accounting for 47.9% of visits from January to November 2024 – their share dropped to 42.0% in December 2024. Meanwhile, the share of guests from suburban areas and small towns rose from 37.3% to 41.0%, and the share of guests from rural and semi-rural areas nearly doubled, from 3.5% to 6.1%.
These patterns suggest that, though Manhattan typically attracts a wide range of visitors, the holiday season is uniquely appealing to tourists from smaller towns and suburban areas. Understanding these trends can provide crucial context for hotels and civic stakeholders alike as they work to maximize the opportunities presented by the city’s December visit surge.
Los Angeles hotels also experience significant demographic shifts during peak season. In July, visits to downtown LA hotels surged by 15.3% relative to the 2024 monthly visit average. And a closer look at audience segmentation data suggests a corresponding surge in the share of "Flourishing Families" – an Experian: Mosaic segment consisting of affluent, middle-aged households with children. Throughout the year, "Flourishing Families" comprised between 7.7% and 8.7% of the census block groups (CBGs) driving visits to downtown LA hotels. But in July, this share jumped to 9.9%.
These families may be taking advantage of summer vacations to enjoy Los Angeles’ cultural attractions and entertainment. Hotels and city stakeholders who understand the appeal the city holds for this demographic can better cater to them through family-friendly promotions and strategic marketing efforts to target these households.
Downtowns are making a comeback – and hotels in the heart of the nation’s major tourist hubs are reaping the benefits. By understanding who frequents these downtown hotels and when, local businesses and civic leaders can optimize their resource management and strategic planning to make the most of these opportunities.
The New York office scene is buzzing once again, as companies from JPMorgan to Meta double down on return-to-office (RTO) mandates. But just how did New York office foot traffic fare in 2024? How did Big Apple office foot traffic compare to that of other major business hubs nationwide? And how is New York’s office recovery impacting post-COVID trends like the TGIF work week? Are office visits still concentrated mid-week, or are people coming in more on Fridays and Mondays? And how has Manhattan’s RTO affected local commuting patterns?
We dove into the data to find out.
In 2024, New York City cemented its position as the nationwide leader in office recovery. Thanks in part to remote work crackdowns by banking behemoths like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, visits to NYC office buildings in 2024 were just 13.1% below pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
For comparison, Miami’s office foot traffic remained 16.2% below pre-pandemic levels, while Atlanta, Washington D.C., and Boston saw significantly larger gaps at 28.6%, 37.8%, and 43.9%, respectively.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the Big Apple’s robust year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) recovery, the pace of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth to NYC office buildings was somewhat slower in 2024 than in other major East Coast business centers. Still, New York’s YoY office recovery rate of 12.4% outpaced the nationwide baseline, and came in just slightly below Washington, D.C.’s 15.2% and Atlanta’s 14.6%.
Interestingly, New York’s return to office has not led to a significant retreat from the TGIF work week that emerged during COVID. In 2024, just 11.9% of weekday (Monday to Friday) visits to NYC offices took place on Fridays – only slightly more than the 11.5% recorded in 2023 and significantly below the pre-pandemic baseline of 17.2%.
Meanwhile, Monday has quietly regained its footing as the dreaded start of the New York work week. After dropping significantly in 2022 and 2023, the share of weekday office visits taking place on Mondays rebounded to 18.2% in 2024 – just slightly below 2019’s 19.5%. Still, Tuesday remained the Big Apple’s busiest in-office day of the week last year, accounting for nearly a quarter (24.6%) of weekday NYC office foot traffic.
And diving into Yo5Y data for each day of the work week shows just how much New York’s overall recovery is driven by mid-week visits – and especially Tuesday ones. In 2024, Friday visits to NYC office buildings were down 40.2% compared to 2019. But on Tuesdays, visits were essentially on par with pre-pandemic levels (-0.3%), even as nationwide office visits remained 24.6% below 2019.
Another post-COVID trend that has shown staying power in New York is the growing share of office visits coming from employees who live nearby. As hybrid schedules become the norm, it seems that those commuting more frequently are often just a short subway ride -or even a stroll- away.
The share of NYC office workers coming from less than five miles away, for example, has risen steadily since COVID, reaching 46.0% in 2024. Over the same period, the share of workers coming from 5-10 miles, 10-15 miles, or 25+ miles away has declined.
Looking at commuting trends across the East Coast helps put New York City’s shift into perspective. In 2019, NYC’s share of nearby commuters was on par with Washington, D.C. and slightly below Boston. But while both cities experienced moderate increases in local commuters between 2019 and 2024, New York pulled ahead, outpacing all other analyzed cities in its share of nearby office workers last year.
Miami and Atlanta – two other standout cities in office recovery – also saw significant growth in the percentage of short-distance commuters over the past five years. This trend underscores a broader shift: As hybrid work reshapes commuting habits, employees across multiple markets are more likely to go into the office if they live nearby, reducing reliance on long-haul commutes.
As the nation’s office recovery leader, New York offers a glimpse into what other cities can expect as office visitation rates continue to improve. Even at just 13.1% below pre-pandemic levels, NYC office visit levels continue to rise. And as recovery nears completion, trends that took hold during COVID remain firmly entrenched.
The full-service dining segment has experienced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with pandemic-era closures, rising food and labor costs, and cutbacks in discretionary spending contributing to visit lags. In 2024, visits were down 0.2% year over year (YoY) and remained 8.4% below 2019 levels – a reflection of the significant number of venues that permanently closed over COVID and a testament to the industry's ongoing struggle to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Yet, even in a difficult environment, some full-service restaurant (FSR) chains are thriving. These brands aren’t waiting for the industry to rebound – they're becoming trendsetters in their own right, proving that stand-out strategy is everything in a challenging market.
This white paper explores brands that are harnessing three key differentiators – fixed-price value offerings, elevated social experiences, and a laser focus on product – to drive full-service dining success in 2025.
One of the most defining trends over the past few years has been the unrelenting march of price increases. And as consumers continue to seek out ways to save, some chains are staying ahead of the pack with fixed-price value offerings that help diners squeeze out the very best bang for their buck.
Golden Corral, the all-you-can-eat buffet chain that lets kids under three eat for free, is one FSR that is benefiting from consumers’ current value orientation. Despite closing several locations in 2024, overall visits to the chain still tracked closely with 2023 levels, declining by just 0.5% – while the average number visits to each Golden Corral restaurant grew 3.8% YoY.
Golden Corral’s value proposition is resonating strongly with budget-conscious Americans eager to enjoy a wide variety of comfort foods at an affordable price. The chain’s visitors tend to come from trade areas with lower median household incomes (HHIs) than traditional full-service restaurant (FSR) diners. And these patrons are willing to travel to enjoy the chain’s value buffet offerings, many of which are situated in rural areas and may require a longer drive. In 2024, 25.2% of Golden Corral’s diners came from over 30 miles away – compared to just 19.2% for the wider FSR segment.
Golden Corral’s continued flourishing proves that in an era of rising costs, diners are willing to go the extra mile (literally) for a restaurant that delivers both quality and affordability.
Children’s party space and eatertainment destination Chuck E. Cheese has had a transformative few years. Following the retirement of its iconic animatronic band, the chain shifted its focus to a new membership model, announcing a revamped Summer of Fun pass in May 2024 – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. The pass proved incredibly popular, with YoY visits surging by 15.6% in May 2024, when the offer launched – a sharp turnaround from the YoY visit declines of the previous months. Recognizing the strong demand, Chuck E. Cheese extended the program year-round – and the strategy has paid off as YoY visits remained positive through the end of 2024.
A closer look at the data suggests that parents are making full use of their unlimited passes: The share of weekday visits was higher in H2 2024 than in H2 2023, likely due to families using their passes for weekday entertainment rather than reserving visits for weekends and special occasions.
At the same time, the share of repeat visitors – those frequenting the chain at least twice a month – also grew. Although these repeat visitors may not purchase additional gameplay beyond the flat fee, their more frequent on-site presence likely translates into increased sales of pizza and other menu items.
While value has been a major motivator for restaurant-goers in recent years, low prices aren’t the only drivers of FSR success. Brands offering unique experiences aimed at maximizing social interaction are also seeing outsized gains.
Though many of these more innovative venues tend to be on the more expensive side, they draw enthusiastic crowds willing to pony up for concepts that combine good food with fun social occasions. And some of the more successful ones bolster perceived value through offerings like fixed-price menus or club memberships.
Korean cuisine has been on the rise in recent years, with restaurants like Bonchon Chicken and GEN Korean BBQ House making significant waves in the dining space. Another chain drawing attention is KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot, which began modestly in 2018 and has since expanded to over 150 locations nationwide.
Diners at KPOT can customize their meals by selecting from a variety of proteins, broths, sauces, and side dishes, known as banchan, while barbecuing or cooking in a hotpot at their table and sipping on the drinks from the menu’s extensive selection. And though pricier than Golden Corral, KPOT also offers an all-you-can-eat experience that lets customers squeeze the most value out of their indulgence.
Location intelligence shows that KPOT’s experiential dining model is resonating with customers: Since Q4 2019, the average number of visits to each KPOT location has risen steadily – even as the chain has grown its footprint – while the average dwell time has also increased. Indeed, rather than a quick dining stop, KPOT has become a destination for guests to linger, enjoying both food and drinks – and an interactive and social experience.
By positioning themselves as gathering places for fine wine aficionados, wine-club-focused concepts such as Postino WineCafe and Cooper’s Hawk Winery are also benefiting from today’s consumers’ emphasis on social experiences. The two upscale dining destinations offer club memberships that combine periodic wine releases with a variety of perks.
And the data suggests that the model is strongly resonating with diners. Both Postino and Cooper’s Hawk have grown their footprints over the past year, driving substantial YoY chain-wide visit increases while average visits per location grew as well – showing that the expansions and experiential offerings are meeting robust demand.
And analyzing the two chains’ captured markets shows that the wine club model enjoys broad appeal across a variety of audience segments.
Unsurprisingly, both wine clubs’ visitor bases include higher-than-average shares of affluent consumers with money to spend, including Experian: Mosaic’s “Power Elite”, “Booming with Confidence”, and “Flourishing Families” segments (the nation’s wealthiest families, as well as affluent suburban and middle-aged households). But the two chains also attract younger, more budget-conscious consumers – Postino, which has many downtown locations, is popular among “Singles and Starters”, while Cooper’s Hawk is popular among “Promising Families” - i.e. young couples with children.
The success of the two brands across various segments underscores the impact of a distinctive experience – especially when paired with a loyalty-boosting membership – in attracting today’s consumers.
Value offerings and unique experiences have the power to drive restaurant visits – but ultimately, a good meal in an inviting atmosphere is a draw in and of itself, as is shown by the success of First Watch and Firebirds Wood Fired Grill.
Breakfast-only restaurant First Watch excels at ambiance and menu innovation, changing up its offerings five times a year and striving to maintain a neighborhood feel at each of its locations.
First Watch has made a point of leaning into its strengths, eschewing discounts in favor of a consistently elevated dining experience and doubling down its strongest day part (weekend brunch), rather than trying to artificially drive up interest at other times.
And the strategy appears to be working: In 2024, visits to First Watch increased 6.6% YoY – with Saturdays and Sundays between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M. remaining its busiest dayparts by far. Visitors to First Watch also tend to linger over their meals more than at other breakfast chains – in 2024, the restaurant experienced an average dwell time of 54.9 minutes, significantly longer than the 48.7-minute average at other breakfast-focused restaurants.
By focusing on what matters most to its diners – innovative and exciting food and a welcoming atmosphere that allows patrons to enjoy their meals at a leisurely pace – First Watch is continuing to flourish.
Another chain that is growing its footprint and its audience on the strength of a menu and ambiance-focused approach is Firebirds Wood Fired Grill. The chain, known for its “polished casual” vibe and bold, unique flavors, added several new restaurants last year, leading to a 6.5% increase in overall visits. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Firebirds location held steady – showing that the new restaurants aren’t cannibalizing existing business.
The chain’s success may rest, in part, on its locating its venues in areas rife with enthusiastic foodies. Data from Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph shows that in 2024, Firebird’s trade areas had significantly higher shares of “BBQ Lovers”, “Gourmet Burger Lovers,” and “Foodies” than the nationwide average. This suggests that Firebirds is attracting diners who prioritize the experience of eating – key for a chain that prides itself on putting good food first. The chain is also known for its welcoming decor and design – another aspect that may lead to its strong visit success.
Necessity often serves as the mother of invention, and challenging economic periods continue to spark new trends and innovations in the dining scene. From a heightened focus on value – drawing families and lower-HHI consumers willing to travel for a good deal – to the growing appeal of social dining and the timeless draw of good food – new trends are emerging to meet changing consumer expectations.
