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Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) latest foot traffic provides an under-the-hood look at how the dining operator is navigating shifting consumer behavior, portfolio dynamics, and expansion in a challenging environment. In its most recent quarterly earnings, management reported sales of $2.9 billion, up 6% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $2.03, topping analyst expectations.
Following several months of slower traffic, Q2 2025 visits to all Darden concepts rose 2.4% YoY, with same-store visits climbing 1.1%. Monthly visit data also showed consistent upward growth, with strong gains in May (4.6%) and August (4.3%). And even slight visit dips in June were quickly followed by renewed growth, underscoring the company's resilience.
Some of this growth may be tied to Darden’s steady unit expansion, including its recent acquisition of Tex-Mex chain Chuy’s. But the increase in same-store visits shows that growth isn't just from new locations – existing restaurants are also attracting more diners, underscoring the strength and resilience of the company's portfolio.
Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse are by far the two largest chains in Darden’s portfolio, and both enjoyed solid visit growth over the period, as shown in the chart below. The standout, however, was Yard House, which posted a 6.2% increase in overall visits alongside a 4.3% gain in same-store visits in Q2 2025.
Yard House attracts a more affluent customer base with a trade area median household income of $82.6K compared to $69.0K to $70.1K for LongHorn and Olive Garden, respectively. This higher income profile may be making Yard House visitors less vulnerable to current consumer headwinds and helping boost the chain's traffic. Yet the continued strength of Olive Garden and LongHorn – despite their lower-income trade areas – underscores the resilience of these brands and shows how their broad appeal allows them to thrive even in more cost-sensitive markets.
Meanwhile, Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, Darden’s third-largest concept, maintained visits largely in line with 2024 levels, showing stability but not the same growth momentum as other Darden brands. As the chain with the lowest-income customer base – Cheddar's draws from trade areas with a median household income of just $64.0K – its softer trajectory likely reflects greater budget constraints among its diners. Still, its steadiness underscores Darden’s success in cultivating concepts that resonate across the income spectrum: Yard House is thriving with more affluent guests, Olive Garden and LongHorn are performing strongly among middle-income households, and Cheddar’s continues to hold its ground with more cost-sensitive customers. Together, these dynamics show how Darden’s brands remain relevant to a broad swath of diners even in a challenging economic climate.
More than half (51.1%) of all Darden visits in H1 2025 went to Olive Garden, making it the company's top traffic driver. But the company is still expanding its existing brands, with LongHorn and Olive Garden leading new location openings.
The map below highlights the brand – Olive Garden or LongHorn – that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth in each state in Q2 2025. This map reveals that LongHorn beat out Olive Garden in terms of YoY growth on most of the East Coast as well as in California and parts of the Midwest and Southeast – suggesting that the brand is capturing share in densely populated coastal markets. So while Olive Garden continues to anchor the business with sheer volume, LongHorn seems to be driving much of the incremental growth, giving Darden two powerful engines for expanding and solidifying its hold on the casual dining segment across the country.
Darden's recent traffic data reveal resilience in the face of a wider slow down in consumer dining trends, powered by a mix of steady performance and faster growth from its four largest brands. Continued unit expansion, alongside the recent addition of Chuy’s, should further broaden its reach while diversifying its customer base.
For up-to-date consumer dining trends, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
U.S. consumer activity looked relatively stable in the first half of 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic (shown in the chart below) staying mostly positive or flat through May – aside from February, when extreme cold and leap year comparisons drove declines.
But momentum shifted in June, when both categories slipped into negative territory, and the softness persisted in July before worsening in August. The late-summer weakness suggests that what began as a temporary cooling may now be evolving into a broader consumer slowdown.
Looking at state-level data reveals that the pullback is not isolated to a few regions. Western states such as Idaho and Utah – where H1 2025 dining traffic rose 2.1% and 2.4% YoY, respectively – flattened out, with visits in July and August down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. And states that had already experienced flat visits or dining softness in H1 2025 saw their visit gaps grow further: YoY dining traffic in New York State declined from -1.2% to -2.3%, while California saw its visits swing from +0.3% in H1 2025 to -2.0% in July and August 2025. Only in Vermont and Rhode Island did YoY dining visits actually increase over the summer.
Statewide retail traffic trends also point to broad-based declines in consumer activity, as visits to retail chains nationwide fell compared to July-August 2024 – even in regions such as the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest that had experienced high consumer resilience in H1 2025. Vermont, joined this time by Delaware, once again stood out as an outlier.
A key driver of the slowdown is the widening gap between higher- and lower-income households. While wealthier consumers have continued to prop up overall spending, middle- and lower-income groups are scaling back. Even among high earners, international summer travel may have drawn dollars away from U.S. retail and dining, softening domestic foot traffic during the analyzed period. This dynamic highlights the risks of relying too heavily on affluent households to sustain consumer activity.
Tariffs have added another layer of complexity. Earlier in the year, many consumers rushed to make purchases ahead of anticipated price hikes. Now, the lingering financial impact of those spring splurges may still be weighing on budgets.
Looking ahead to the holiday season, discretionary fatigue looms large. Spending is expected to slow, led by a sharper cutback from Gen Z. Budget-conscious households may already be tightening their belts in preparation for holiday expenses, further dampening retail and dining performance.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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With summer just behind us, we dove into the data to see how office visitation fared in August 2025. Did July’s impressive recovery momentum hold, or did seasonal factors slow the pace?
Visits to the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index registered a 34.3% decline in August 2025 compared to the same period in 2019 – a wider gap than that seen in August 2023, and an even more notable retreat from July's encouraging 21.8% deficit.
However, this apparent setback is largely due to calendar differences: August 2025 had only 21 working days, compared to 22 in both August 2024 and 2019, and 23 in August 2023. When normalized for average visits per workday, August 2025 actually outperformed August 2023.
Seasonal dynamics also likely played a crucial role. August represents peak vacation season, and just as employees often embrace remote work on Fridays to extend weekends, they likely embrace similar flexibility during the peak summer travel season. Organizations may also relax in-office requirements when substantial portions of their workforce are taking time off.
So rather than signaling a genuine return-to-office (RTO) reversal, August's softer performance likely reflects the intersection of compressed work calendars and seasonal vacation patterns, with the underlying recovery trajectory remaining fundamentally intact.
The August effect impacted major markets nationwide, including New York and Miami – both of which achieved full recovery in July yet posted year-over-six-year gaps in excess of 10.0% last month. But while gaps widened across most markets, San Francisco once again avoided last place, ranking ahead of Chicago in post-pandemic office recovery metrics. Despite still facing below-average office attendance relative to 2019 levels, the Bay Area market’s renewed momentum – bolstered by increased AI-sector leasing activity – continues drawing employees back to offices even amid summer distractions.
San Francisco also ranked among August's year-over-year (YoY) office visit recovery leaders, providing further evidence of the city’s robust recovery momentum. But it was Chicago that claimed the top spot with a 12.5% year-over-year (YoY) gain – encouraging progress for the Windy City, though it remains to be seen whether this signals the beginning of a lasting turnaround.
Meanwhile, Boston also exceeded the nationwide year-over-year average of 2.9% with a 3.1% increase, while Washington, D.C. lagged behind with a YoY decline of 3.9%.
As we noted in July, the office recovery path is anything but linear. Months of significant progress are often followed by more sluggish periods – and August 2025 exemplifies how seasonality and calendar differences can obscure underlying trends.
Will September 2025 set a new RTO record as kids return to school and employees refocus?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
Following modest gains to the Placer.ai Industrial Index in June and July, foot traffic to U.S. manufacturing facilities fell 5.6% year over year in August 2025. So even as order books improved in July, operators seem to have scaled back in-plant activity and nonessential visits to navigate cost and policy uncertainty.
Several national and regional gauges underscore the divergence in August. S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.0, its highest since May 2022, as firms built inventory amid worries over prices and supply constraints. Meanwhile, ISM's Production Index fell to 47.8% – 3.6 percentage points lower than July's 51.4% – pointing to weaker factory output, and demand for industrial space has fallen recently for the first time in 15 years. The Philadelphia Fed’s August 2025 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey also showed a decline in general activity as new orders dipped back into negative territory.
Together, these mixed signals mirror Placer.ai's foot-traffic trends: Underlying demand is stabilizing, but managers remain cautious with on-site labor and vendor engagement, with macro uncertainty continuing to translate into swings in on-the-ground activity. Looking ahead, September will reveal whether greater policy clarity and easing cost pressures can help stabilize factory visits after a turbulent summer.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
The same macroeconomic forces pressuring other retail sectors are fueling demand for auto parts: With the U.S. light vehicle fleet now averaging 12.8 years – up from 11.6 in 2019 – and many households delaying new car purchases, aftermarket maintenance has become more essential than ever. And while discretionary upgrades may be postponed, core failure and replacement parts continue to see robust demand. Though tariff-related uncertainty continues to loom, leading retailers report they have managed the impact effectively so far.
Against this backdrop, we dove into the data to check in with AutoZone, O’Reilly Auto Parts, and Advance Auto Parts. How did they fare in Q2 2025? And what awaits them the rest of the year?
AutoZone, the sector's largest chain, continues to expand while growing its customer base. Over the past six years, AutoZone has steadily increased its store count, leaning into growing demand without diluting location-level traffic. Year over year (YoY) too, the chain saw significant visit growth between March and May 2025 – and while June showed some softening, July and August visits remained essentially flat versus 2024, demonstrating stability during the chain’s busy summer maintenance season.
This robust foot traffic performance aligns with the company's recent financials. In its last reporting period (ending May 10, 2025), AutoZone posted a solid 5.0% year-over-year increase in U.S. comparable sales. Commercial performance was especially strong – Do-It-For-Me (DIFM) sales jumped 10.7%, while DIY sales grew 3.0% YoY. And management emphasized that tariff-related impacts have been minimal so far.
O'Reilly Auto Parts is also executing on an impressive expansion strategy. In Q2 2025, overall visits to O’Reilly climbed 4.6% YoY, with same store visits up 3.0%. Compared to 2019, both total and per-location foot traffic has steadily increased, demonstrating the company’s success in combining aggressive growth with operational efficiency.
And in its last reporting quarter, the company posted a 4.1% increase in comparable store sales, with robust performance across both DIY and professional channels. Total sales revenue reached a record $4.53 billion – a 6.0% increase versus last year. The company also noted a modest pricing lift tied to tariffs but emphasized that overall demand trends remain strong.
Advance Auto Parts, for its part, is restructuring to compete more effectively. During the quarter ending July 12th, 2025, net sales fell 7.7% year-over-year, partly due to planned store closures. Still, signs of stabilization are emerging: Comparable-store sales edged up 0.1%, indicating that core demand remains healthy.
And recent foot traffic provides further evidence that the company’s rightsizing strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Same-store traffic declines were narrower than the chain’s overall visit gap – just -1.5% YoY in July and -2.4% in August – suggesting that consolidation is helping shore up performance at remaining locations. At the same time, Advance is modernizing its supply chain to accelerate deliveries and strengthen its DIFM offerings – which, as with its peers, serves as a critical growth anchor for the chain. While it remains to be seen if these moves will drive sustained recovery amid shifting tariff pressures, Advance has restored profitability while implementing its strategic turnaround.
The auto parts sector remains robust, driven by an aging vehicle fleet and delayed new car purchases. And though tariff uncertainty remains, AutoZone, O’Reilly, and Advance are thus far navigating the new cost environment without major disruption. As 2025 unfolds, the second half of the year will show whether higher new-car prices push more consumers into aftermarket maintenance – and how customers, particularly in the DIY segment, respond if retailers need to pass through additional price increases.
For the most up-to-date retail visit data, check out Placer.ai's free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
This year has posed challenges for limited-service dining chains as inflation and higher prices continued to weigh on consumer traffic. We analyzed visitation trends in 2025 so far across major segments to better understand which categories are holding up – and which may need to adjust strategies.
This year brought significant challenges for the limited-service dining industry, as persistent price increases kept many would-be diners at home. Even industry giants like McDonald’s reported declines in same-store sales as lower- and middle-income consumers pulled back spending. Yet several categories, including the ever-impressive chicken segment, managed to buck the trend.
The chart below highlights the differences in YoY foot traffic for major limited service dining concepts in H1 2025. Pizza, burger, and sandwich chains experienced declines, while coffee, chicken, and Mexican-inspired concepts emerged as the growth drivers in terms of overall visit increases.
These segments were likely aided by aggressive unit expansion and consumer preferences shifting toward more affordable, customizable, and protein-forward options. Coffee continues to hold steady as a daily staple, while chicken and Mexican-inspired operators are capturing demand for protein-forward and customizable formats.
However, per-location data tempers this growth narrative. Visits per store declined across every major category – even those with overall visit increases – indicating that expansion may be outpacing underlying demand and pushing the segment toward potential oversaturation.
Recent summer data underscores the cautionary signals. Year-over-year traffic growth for coffee, chicken, and Mexican-inspired concepts was weaker in July than in the first half of the year. By August, declines had spread across nearly every category – with chicken chains in particular seeing a dip in traffic and an even steeper drop in average visits per location – leaving coffee as the only segment to sustain growth.
This broader slowdown in limited-service dining, combined with persistent economic uncertainty, suggests that consumers may be scaling back restaurant spending – even in categories traditionally viewed as more budget-friendly.
While 2025 has been marked by volatility, the underlying consumer appetite for convenient, protein-forward, and customizable dining is helping some limited-service segments stay ahead of the pack. Still, visit per location data suggests that expansion plans may need to be put on ice for the next few quarters.
Instead, operators that focus on menu innovation, building loyalty, and driving higher output per store stand to capture demand when economic pressures ease. As confidence rebounds, concepts that have expanded strategically may be especially well positioned to benefit from renewed consumer traffic.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
