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At the start of 2025, expectations for retail were optimistic – focused on replacement cycles, a rebound in discretionary spending, and continued consumer strength. In reality, the year has been far more disruptive than that early narrative anticipated.
Consumers faced ongoing pressure from economic uncertainty, weather disruptions, employment concerns, and declining confidence. With consumers more connected to real-time news than ever, shoppers adjusted their retail decisions quickly as conditions changed, often taking a cautious, defensive approach to spending.
The discretionary side of the retail industry, also known as general merchandise, has shouldered most of the impact of changing consumer dynamics. As consumers looked to create a balance between their needs and their wants, oftentimes the “needs” won out. In general, visitation to non-discretionary categories has remained relatively stable, while there has been more volatility across the discretionary space.
The non-discretionary retail sectors benefited from value based models like value grocery chains and dollar and discount stores. Warehouse clubs emerged as the new one-stop-shop for consumers as superstores struggled to maintain in-store traffic. And fresh format grocery stores still found success with wealthier consumers and new store formats.
Despite the challenges overall, there have still been pockets of growth and emerging trends that have shaped the discretionary sector. And, despite a lot of stormy weather, consumers continue to maintain some level of resilience. In particular, the holiday season has been shaped by this unforeseen optimism despite the circumstances of many shoppers.
Here’s a look back at the trends and stories that shaped discretionary categories in 2025:
One of the most stark examples of the current retail climate continues to be the bifurcation of consumers. The retail industry, particularly in discretionary categories, has been bolstered by wealthier shoppers, as lower and middle income families become more discerning and stretched financially. This trend became more pronounced throughout 2025, and the second half of 2025 saw a large pullback by “aspirational” shoppers.
The luxury market has been greatly impacted by this trend, as visits by wealthier consumers haven’t been able to offset the decline by more infrequent, aspirational visitors. Overall visit growth to luxury apparel and accessories retailers slowed in Q3 when compared to 2024 levels, and those trends have continued into the holiday season.
According to Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive consumer segmentation, 2025 has seen a higher distribution of visits by Ultra Wealthy Families, Sunset Boomers, and Upper Suburban Diverse Families as there has been a contraction of visits by Near-Urban Diverse Families, and City Hopefuls. Aspirational shoppers who may have once saved for or set aside disposable income for luxury purchases may have had to shift those funds elsewhere as lower income shoppers become more financially strained.
Retailers are going to face more pressure next year as this bifurcation continues and consumer spending becomes more polarized. Full-price brands and those that fit somewhere in the middle are going to need creative solutions to court consumers, especially those who have become much more discerning this year.
The American retail landscape has long been associated with the wide array of specialty retailers that operate all across the country. Whether mastering American fashion, stories, or experiences, retailers have ingrained themselves into the fabric of consumers’ celebrations, gifts, and leisure time.
For many retailers that have led both media coverage and performance in 2025, success has come down to one simple concept: going back to their roots. Retail brands have always been synonymous with specialties, whether it be quality, styling, service, or expertise. Brands that have once again harnessed these elements to repair relationships with consumers and cement their brand value have been able to circumvent a lot of the economic challenges this year.
The return of Gap has been well documented this year, but it bears repeating because it has been remarkable. While all Gap Inc. brands are somewhere along the road to recovery, the flagship brand has been most impressive. Traffic in 2025 was up 1.1% compared to 2024, which is impressive after years of declines. The brand has focused its marketing and merchandising around the return of trend-right, high quality and affordable American fashion, and shoppers have bought in wholeheartedly.
Nordstrom, another top pick for 2025, cemented its place as a category expert and customer service titan. Whether it be the shoe department, the cafe, or the in-store experience, Nordstrom is once again a top-of-mind destination for shoppers, especially those who have higher levels of disposable income. The chain is benefiting from this return to form, with visits up 2.3% in 2025.
Finally, against all odds, Barnes & Noble has continued its momentum this year. As the industry to be first disrupted by e-commerce, the bookstore category has faced an uphill climb after losing major retail chains and a strong digital presence. Barnes & Noble has been able to harness the power of in-store experience to cement itself as part of the consumers’ communities. As shoppers increasingly look to the retail industry as a third place for socializing, the chain has been able to adapt to keep customers in stores for longer.
With uncertain economic conditions, consumers have been much more discerning about discretionary purchases in 2025 – but still crave the concept of treating themselves. Self-gifting has been on the rise for the past few holiday seasons, but 2025 signaled that even when consumers are more intentional about purchasing, they still crave that joy of the shopping experience.
Small indulgence categories have been on the rise or rebound since the second half of 2025. Beauty, in particular, saw a turn in its business as consumers became more discerning. Beauty has always been synonymous with challenging economic times for consumers, with the “lipstick index” often seen as a barometer for consumer sentiment. Beauty’s rebound could very well continue into 2026 if consumers look for those small ways to update their look and satisfy their need to shop.
Collectibles can also fit into the small indulgence category, especially with 2025’s hottest item, Labubu. Although the viral sensation from retailer POP MART became almost impossible to secure, the price point was attainable for most consumers. Similarly, Trade Joe’s viral mini tote bag also comes at a low price point, at $2.99, and consumers continue to flock to the brand’s stores to purchase during the bag's drops in spring and fall.
The pet category has also had a strong 2025 performance, which can somewhat be attributed to the small indulgence trend. Consumers tend to pull back on self-purchasing, but will often limit the impact felt by pets or children. The pet category has not seen much change in consumer behavior and this trend is likely to continue into 2026.
At the start of 2026, discretionary retail has not so much rebounded as recalibrated. The year revealed a consumer who is highly informed, highly selective, and increasingly comfortable walking away – forcing retailers to compete not just on price or promotion, but on relevance. The winners were not those that chased volume at all costs, but those that clearly articulated why they exist, who they serve, and what role they play in consumers’ lives.
Looking ahead to 2026, the forces that shaped this year – income bifurcation, cautious spending, and the prioritization of emotional value – are likely to intensify. Retailers operating in the middle will face the greatest test, as consumers continue to polarize between value-seeking and premium experiences. Growth will likely come from precision: sharper assortments, clearer brand positioning, and formats that respect both consumers’ financial realities and their desire for moments of joy.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Between May of 2021 and November of 2025, The Home Depot saw year-over-year (YoY) visits down 50 of 55 months. The initial downturn was likely driven by the intense pull forward of demand during the pandemic, while the latter struggles were driven by a combination of economic headwinds and sector specific challenges. But, however you contextualize the issues, the result was an average monthly decline of 3.6% YoY from May 2021 to April 2025, despite the final months of that period taking place during the retailer’s normal annual visit peak.
But, there were also very positive signs during that period. The weeks prior to Liberation Day saw YoY visit increases of 2.5% and 4.6%, before tariff concerns drove significant declines, and those declines continued with 14 of the next 15 weeks seeing YoY visit drops.
So where are the signs of a sleeping giant?
For one, visits are getting better. The visit gap between May and November 2025 shrunk to just 0.5% – essentially flat.
Then November saw a visit jump of 3.8%, and the strength was part of a sustained effort, with the eight week period from October 20th to the week beginning December 9th seeing consistent YoY visit increases.
In addition, this strength during the holiday period gives added emphasis to the thinking that Home Depot’s return to growth could have been much earlier were it not for the tariff obstacles that appeared in March and April.
Great brand, clear market leadership and smoother sailing? Sounds like a recipe for a 2026 winner.
In the first half of 2025, Starbucks monthly visits were down 0.6% on average. In the first five months of the second half, that number jumped to being up 1.6%, including a 14 week period between September 1st and the week beginning December 1st where the coffee giant saw visits up 12 of 14 weeks driving October and November visits up 3.2% on average YoY. For context, Q4 2024 was down 2.9% YoY.
The takeaway?
There was real reason to be excited about the directional shifts CEO Brian Niccol built his Back to Starbucks strategy around. The concepts resonated and hearkened back to a Starbucks experience that would leverage its unique brand and status. But ultimately, the excitement needed to center around the belief that these strategies could work and be executed effectively.
The last few months have been a powerful indication that those who held this belief were justified. Visits didn’t improve because of strong coffee headwinds, they improved because Starbucks did what they do best – they owned the calendar and leveraged their creativity and brand to drive huge visit spikes. Cups – whether of the Red or Bearista variety – and menu shifts including the epic annual PSL launch drove visit surges, and the chain's massive footprint positioned it to dominate on major shopping days like Black Friday.
TLDR – the new strategy sounded exciting, there’s real evidence that it’s working, and the chain has maintained its unique hold on the calendar and an industry leading ability to drive urgency and visits almost at the flick of a switch. Lots of reasons to expect the Starbucks recovery to continue gaining momentum.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Craft retailers – one of the top destinations for purchasing holiday decor – posted impressive year-over-year (YoY) gains this holiday season: AI-powered location analytics reveals that visits to industry leaders Michaels and Hobby Lobby were up YoY by double-digits almost every week of the holiday season. And while some of these chains' success is likely due to the reduced competition – with Party City having ceased its operations earlier this year – the strong growth also suggests that, despite digital competition, the demand for physical browsing and festive inspiration remains high.
We dove into the data to analyze how the holiday decor market is evolving.
The 2025 closures of Party City and JOANN consolidated the crafting sector, leaving Michaels and Hobby Lobby with fewer competitors and driving up YoY visits. This market shift proved particularly advantageous in Q4 as shoppers seeking Halloween decorations and holiday trimmings flocked to the remaining specialty retailers.
But Michaels and Hobby Lobby's success is due to more than just a market consolidation – the two chains have cemented themselves as premier destinations for holiday home decor. And while these retailers have traditionally relied on families looking to fill suburban homes with seasonal cheer, AI-powered location analytics reveal that younger, more urban shoppers are also fueling the holiday traffic boost.
Focusing on October and November data reveals that both chains saw the share of "households with children" in their captured market dip between 2024 and 2025, while the share of Young Professionals and Young Urban Singles increased. This suggests that at least some of the holiday decorating in 2025 was fueled not just by family traditions, but also by a younger generation curating their spaces with viral, budget-friendly finds.
While the exit of competitors like Party City and JOANN cleared the playing field in 2025, Michaels and Hobby Lobby's success is due to more than just absorbing the displaced demand. By capturing a new wave of young, urban shoppers hunting for viral trends, these retailers have proven that holiday décor is no longer solely the domain of suburban families. This successful pivot from traditional utility to trend-driven destination suggests that the craft sector isn't just surviving the retail shakeout; it is effectively reshaping itself for a new generation of consumers.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
7 Brew Coffee may be the fastest-growing coffee chain in the US right now. The chain surged from just 14 locations at the start of 2022 to around 500 locations by October 2025. And average visits per location also increased significantly – indicating that despite the breakneck expansion, the drive-thru brand still has significant runway left to grow.
The chain's hypergrowth has been fueled by significant capital, including an equity investment from Blackstone in 2024 and a massive franchise agreement with the Flynn Group to develop an additional 160 stores. With a modular building model that allows for rapid deployment, 7 Brew is positioned to aggressively challenge major drive-thru competitors like Dutch Bros and Scooter's Coffee.
7 Brew's success can also be linked to a broader rise in drive-thru-centric coffee concepts. The chart below illustrates the shifting category dynamics in recent years as leading drive-thru coffee chains – with Dutch Bros in the lead – commanding a growing share of overall coffee visits since 2019.
Even amid the broader rise of drive-thru coffee chains, 7 Brew’s growth continues to stand out. While the brand still holds a relatively small share of the overall coffee market, the brand’s proportional growth outpaces its peers, reflecting both aggressive unit expansion and strong consumer adoption. The chart also underscores how 7 Brew is increasingly carving out space within a segment historically dominated by brands like Dutch Bros – suggesting meaningful long-term competitive potential.
With drive-thru coffee continuing to surge in popularity and consumers gravitating toward convenience-forward formats, 7 Brew is well positioned to continue capturing incremental market share and solidifying its status as one of the fastest-rising brands in the category.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Despite the ongoing consumer headwinds, the 2025 holiday shopping season delivered year-over-year (YoY) gains for both retail and dining chains nationwide, with the majority of states registering retail and dining traffic increases during the holiday window. And while performance varied meaningfully by category and format, aggregate retail traffic numbers point to significant consumer engagement throughout the end of 2025.
Bifurcation has been a defining trend of consumer behavior in 2025 and continued to shape shopping patterns during the holiday season. Thrift stores and off-price retailers led the apparel category with traffic up 11.7% and 6.6% (November 1st to December 24th, 2025), respectively, compared to last year’s holiday period. Luxury chains and department stores also posted modest gains (+1.8%), while traditional apparel chains saw slight declines (-1.8%) and mid-tier department stores experienced more pronounced traffic drops (-6.2%).
Open-air shopping centers led mall-format performance during the 2025 holiday season, with visits up 1.7% YoY, as consumers gravitated toward environments that offered a more festive, experiential atmosphere and a wider mix of dining options. The format likely received an additional lift from warmer-than-average weather across much of the country, which encouraged shoppers to fully take advantage of the outdoor amenities and social experiences open-air centers offer during the holidays.
Indoor mall traffic was largely flat (+0.8%) – a positive signal given ongoing consumer headwinds, especially for mid-tier formats – suggesting that traditional malls were able to maintain relevance during a pressured spending environment.
Meanwhile, outlet mall visits declined slightly (-0.8%), likely reflecting reduced appetite for destination-driven, discretionary trips as shoppers prioritized convenience, everyday value, and locally accessible retail over longer, deal-oriented excursions during the holidays.
Within the superstore category, wholesale clubs and discount & dollar stores outperformed mass merchants. This performance underscores consumers’ continued shift toward value-driven retail during the holidays and highlights that “value” extends beyond low prices alone; wholesale clubs, with their compelling value propositions, are also seeing meaningful gains in the current consumer environment.
Categories most closely tied to self-gifting outperformed more traditional holiday segments during the 2025 season. Pet stores and services (+5.5% YoY) and home improvement retailers (+3.4% YoY) led the way, perhaps because purchases from these categories are typically positioned as practical investments in everyday life, ranging from caring for pets to improving and maintaining living spaces.
In contrast, home furnishings (-0.8%) lagged, as these purchases tend to be more decorative or occasion-driven and therefore more likely to be intended as gifts for others rather than immediate, utility-focused upgrades. Traffic to electronics stores also dipped slightly (-1.5%). Together, these trends underscore a consumer preference for spending that delivers direct, everyday value to themselves over more traditional, outward-facing holiday gifting.
Overall, location analytics for the 2025 holiday season suggest that consumers remained highly engaged despite ongoing economic pressure, but their spending behavior continued to fragment. Across apparel, superstores, and discretionary categories, shoppers consistently gravitated toward retailers that delivered clear value – whether through low prices, strong quality-to-price ratios, or products tied to personal utility and well-being. The outperformance of thrift, off-price, wholesale clubs, and self-gifting categories underscores a consumer mindset that is both pragmatic and selective, balancing budget consciousness with targeted willingness to spend.
Looking ahead to 2026, these patterns suggest that retailers should move beyond one-dimensional value messaging and instead sharpen their core propositions. Formats that clearly articulate why they are “worth the trip” – through pricing power, assortment differentiation, or alignment with everyday consumer priorities – will be best positioned to win share. As bifurcation persists, success will increasingly depend on understanding which consumer needs a brand serves best and doubling down on those strengths, rather than attempting to compete broadly across a squeezed and highly segmented retail landscape.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Dutch Bros has long been a powerhouse in the beverage space, building its business with rapid expansion and securing a loyal following. But to maintain its growth momentum, Dutch Bros will likely need to look beyond its beverage-first identity. By strategically expanding its breakfast offerings, the brand can attract a new segment of morning diners while driving incremental spend from its existing loyal customer base.
Dutch Bros is still on an aggressive growth trajectory, with plans to continue opening new locations at a brisk pace. The company passed the 1,000-unit mark this year and aims to reach over 2,000 locations nationwide by 2029. However, recent data suggests that while the brand's overall footprint is expanding, its established locations are facing the typical challenges of a maturing brand.
Throughout much of 2025, total visits to Dutch Bros increased rapidly year-over-year (YoY), driven largely by new store openings. And while same-store visits – which measure the performance of locations open for at least a year – were also generally positive, the growth was somewhat uneven. So although the brand’s expansion is still meeting robust demand, the gap between total growth and same-store performance may indicate that Dutch Bros is reaching a level of saturation in its initial markets.
To sustain growth, the brand is targeting the morning daypart by introducing breakfast offerings, reaching approximately 160 stores by the end of September 2025 and plans to deploy the menu across its store fleet in 2026. This strategy appears to be paying off: November saw same-store visits surge to their highest levels of the year. While this spike was likely supported by holiday menu launches and Black Friday, it also suggests the breakfast initiative is gaining traction and successfully revitalizing performance at established locations.
Why is Dutch Bros betting on breakfast? Historically, Dutch Bros has seen a lower percentage of its daily traffic occur during the morning daypart than its competitors. And when comparing the chain’s hourly visit distribution to the wider coffee category, it becomes clear why the shift toward a more robust breakfast offering is a logical move for Dutch Bros. While the coffee category as a whole sees 43.1% of its total daily visits between 5:00 and 11:00 AM, Dutch Bros captures only 32.6% during that same window, according to the chart below.
To bridge this gap, Dutch Bros is evolving its menu to include more substantial food options. Food currently accounts for only about 2% of Dutch Bros’ total sales, a figure it hopes to increase significantly with the help of hot breakfast items. As Dutch Bros continues to roll out the expanded food lineup to more locations in 2026, the brand is positioning itself to compete directly for the morning commuter who currently heads to a competitor for a meal-and-drink combo.
And to further bolster its morning performance, Dutch Bros could lean into "functional fuel" trends that complement its popular protein coffee and are likely to appeal in particular to younger consumers who prioritize health-conscious menu options.
Dutch Bros is at a pivotal point in its evolution. While new store openings continue to drive visits, the brand is now focusing on deepening its relationship with customers through the breakfast daypart. If the recent uptick in same-store visits is any indication, the shift from a "beverage-first" destination to a well-rounded morning stop could be exactly what the company needs to sustain its long-term momentum.
For more dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
1. Idaho and South Carolina have emerged as significant domestic migration magnets over the past four years. Between January 2021 and 2025, both states gained over 3.0% of their populations through domestic migration. Other Mountain and Sun Belt states – including Nevada, Montana, and Florida – also drew significant inflow, while California, New York, and Illinois experienced the greatest outmigration.
2. Interstate migration cooled noticeably in 2024. During the 12-month period ending January 2025, California, New York and Illinois saw their outflows slow dramatically, while domestic migration hotspots like Georgia, Texas, and Florida saw inflows flatten to zero. A similar cooling trend emerged on a CBSA level.
3. Still, some states continued to see notable relocation activity over the past year. In 2024, Idaho, South Carolina, and North Dakota drew the most relocators relative to their populations. And among the nation’s ten largest states, North Carolina led with an inflow of 0.4%.
4. Phoenix remained a rare bright spot among the nation’s ten largest metro areas. The CBSA was the only major analyzed hub to maintain positive net domestic migration through 2024.
Over the past several years, the United States has experienced significant domestic migration shifts, driven by factors like remote work, housing affordability, and regional economic opportunities. As some areas reap the benefits of population inflows, others grapple with outflows tied to higher living costs and evolving workplace dynamics.
This report dives into the location analytics to explore where Americans have moved since 2021 – and how these patterns began to change in 2024.
Since 2021, Americans have flocked toward warmer climates, expansive natural scenery, and more affordable housing options – particularly in the Mountain and Sun Belt states.
Between January 2021 and January 2025, South Carolina led the nation in positive net domestic migration – drawing an influx of newcomers equivalent to 3.6% of its January 2025 population. (This metric is referred to as a state’s “net migrated percent of population.”) Next in line was Idaho with a 3.4% net migrated percent of population, followed by Nevada, (2.8%), Montana (2.8%), Florida (2.1%), South Dakota (2.1%), Wyoming (2.0%), North Carolina (2.0%), and Tennessee (1.9%). Texas saw positive net migration of just 0.9% during the same period. However, the Lone Star State’s large overall population means a substantial number of newcomers in absolute terms.
Meanwhile, California (-2.2%), New York (-2.1%), and Illinois (-1.9%) experienced the greatest outflows relative to their populations. This exodus was driven largely by soaring housing costs and the rise of remote work, which lowered barriers to moving out of high-priced areas.
Between January 2024 and January 2025, many of the same broad patterns persisted, but at a more moderate clip – suggesting a stabilization of domestic migration nationwide. This leveling off could reflect factors such as rising mortgage interest rates, which dampened home buying and selling, as well as the increased push for employees to return to the office.
Still, South Carolina (+0.6%) and Idaho (+0.6%) remained among the top inflow states. The two hotspots were joined – and slightly surpassed – by North Dakota (+0.8%), where even modest waves of newcomers make a big impact due to the state’s lower population base. A wealth of affordable housing and a strong job market have positioned North Dakota as a particularly attractive destination for U.S. relocators in recent years. And Microsoft and Amazon’s establishment of major presences around Fargo has strengthened the region’s economy.
Meanwhile, California (-0.3%), New York (-0.2%), and Illinois (-0.1%) continued to post negative net migration, but at a markedly slower rate than in prior years. And notably, several states that had been struggling with outflow, such as Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Ohio, and Oregon, began showing minor positive inflow during the same 12-month window. As home affordability erodes in pandemic-era hot spots like the Mountain states and Sun Belt, these areas may emerge as new destinations for Americans seeking lower costs of living.
Zooming in on the ten most populous U.S. states offers an even clearer picture of how domestic migration patterns have stabilized over the past year. The graph below shows a side-by-side comparison of domestic migration patterns during the 36-month period ending January 2024 and the 12-month period ending January 2025.
California, New York, and Illinois saw population outflows slow dramatically during the 12 months ending January 2025 – while domestic migration magnets such as Georgia, Texas, and Florida saw inflow flatten to zero. Meanwhile, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania flipped from slightly negative to slightly positive net migration – incremental upticks that could signal a possible turnaround.
The only “Big Ten” pandemic-era migration magnet to maintain strong inflow in 2024 was North Carolina – which saw a 0.4% influx in 2024 as a result of interstate moves.
A closer look at the top four states receiving outmigration from California and New York (October 2020 to October 2024) reveals that residents leaving both states tended to settle in nearby areas or in Florida.
Among those leaving New York, 37.4% ended up in neighboring states – 21.1% moved to New Jersey, 9.2% to Pennsylvania, and 7.1% to Connecticut. But an astonishing 28.8% decamped all the way to the Sunshine State, trading the Northeast’s colder climate for Florida sunshine.
Similarly, 20.1% of California leavers chose to stay nearby, moving to Nevada (11.5%) or Arizona (8.6%). Another 19.1% moved to Texas, and 8.0% moved to Florida, making it the fourth-largest destination for Californians.
Zooming in on CBSA-level data – focusing on the nation’s ten largest metropolitan areas, all with over five million people – reveals a similar picture of slowing domestic migration over the last year.
Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. – four cities that experienced notable population outflows between January 2021 and January 2024 – saw those outflows flatten considerably. For these metros, this leveling-off may serve as a promising sign that the waves of departures seen in recent years may have begun to subside. Conversely, Houston and Dallas, which both welcomed positive net migration between January 2021 and January 2024, registered zero-net domestic migration in 2024. Atlanta, for its part, remained flat in both of the analyzed periods.
In Miami, however, outmigration persisted at a substantial rate. Despite Florida’s overall status as a domestic migration magnet, Miami lost 2.6% of its population to domestic net migration between January 2020 and January 2024 – and another 1.0% between January 2024 and January 2025. As one of Florida’s most expensive housing markets, Miami may be losing some residents to other parts of the state or elsewhere in the region. Meanwhile, Philadelphia, which lost 0.3% of its population to net domestic migration between January 2021 and January 2024, continued losing residents at a slightly faster pace in 2024 – another 0.3% just last year.
Of the ten biggest CBSAs nationwide, only Phoenix continued to see a net domestic migration gain through 2024 (+0.2%). This highlights the CBSA’s continued draw as a (relative) relocation hotspot even in 2024’s cooling market.
Who are the domestic relocators heading to Phoenix?
From October 2020 to October 2024, the top five metro areas sending residents to the Phoenix CBSA each registered median household incomes (HHIs) of $73K to $98K – surpassing Phoenix’s own median of $72K. This suggests that many of those moving in are arriving from wealthier, often more expensive metro areas – for whom even Phoenix’s high-priced market may offer more affordable living.
Overall, domestic migration patterns appear to have cooled in 2024, reflecting economic and societal trends that have slowed the rush from pricey coastal hubs to more affordable regions. Yet states like South Carolina, Idaho, and North Dakota – as well as metro areas like Phoenix – continue to attract new arrivals, paving the way for evolving regional demographics in the years to come.
In today’s retail landscape, consumer behavior is influenced by a multitude of factors, directly impacting the success of products and brands. This report explores the latest trends in value perception, shopping behavior, and media consumption that impact which brands consumers are most likely to engage with – and how.
In the apparel space, consumers continue to prioritize value and unique merchandise.
Analysis of visits to various apparel categories reveals a steady increase in the share of visits going to off-price retailers and thrift stores at the expense of traditional apparel chains.
And the popularity of off-price chains and thrift stores appears to be widespread across multiple audience segments. Analyzing trade area data with the Experian: Mosaic psychographic dataset reveals a clear preference for second-hand retailers among both younger (ages 25-30) and older (51+) consumer segments. Meanwhile, middle-class parents aged 36-45 with teenagers – the “Family Union” segment – are significantly more likely to shop at off-price apparel stores, highlighting their emphasis on buying new, while saving both time and money.
This suggests that the powerful blend of treasure-hunting and deep value, central to both the off-price and thrift experiences, is driving traffic from a variety of audiences, and that other industries could benefit from combining affordability with the allure of unique products.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence for the apparel space further highlights thrift and off-price’s broad appeal – and that a combination of quality and price motivates consumers to visit different retailers.
Between 2019 and 2024, the share of Bloomingdale’s, Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, and Nordstrom visitors that also visited a Goodwill or Ross Dress for Less increased significantly.
And while this could mean that the current economic climate is causing some higher-income consumers to trade down to lower-priced retailers, it could also be that consumers are prioritizing sustainability and seeking value in terms of “bang for their buck” – shopping a combination of retailers depending on the cost versus quality considerations for each purchase.
Consumers increasingly expect to shop on their own terms, opting for a more flexible shopping experience that blurs the lines between traditional retail channels and categories.
Superstores and warehouse stores, for example, often evoke the image of navigating aisle after aisle of nearly every product imaginable – a time-consuming endeavor given the sheer size of their stores. But the latest location intelligence shows that more consumers are turning to these retailers for super-quick shopping trips.
Between 2019 and 2024, the share of visits lasting less than ten minutes at Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, Sam’s Club, and to a lesser extent Costco, rose steadily – perhaps due to increased use of flexible BOPIS (buy online, pick-up in-store) and curbside pick-up options. These stores may also be seeing a rise in consumers popping in to grab just a few items as-needed or to cherry-pick particular deals to complement their larger online shopping orders.
This trend highlights the demand for frictionless store experiences that allow visitors to conveniently shop or pick up orders even at large physical retailers.
And the breaking down of traditional retail silos isn’t limited to big-box chains. Diving into the data for quick service restaurants (QSR), fast casual chains, and grocery stores indicates that more consumers are also looking for new ways to grab a convenient bite.
Since 2019, grocery stores have been claiming an increasingly large share of the midday short visit pie – i.e. visits between 11:00 AM 3:00 PM lasting less than ten minutes – at the expense of QSR chains. This suggests that consumers seeking quick and affordable lunches are increasingly turning to grocery stores to pick up a few items or take advantage of self-service food bars. Notably, the rise in supermarket lunching hasn’t come at the expense of fast-casual restaurants, which have also upped their quick-service games – and have seen a small increase in their share of the quick lunchtime crowd over the past five years.
While some of QSR’s relative decline in short lunchtime visits could be due to discontent with rising fast-food prices, it’s clear that an increasing share of consumers see grocery and fast-casual chains as viable options during the lunch rush.
In 2025, tapping into hot trends and creating viral moments are among the most powerful tools for amplifying promotions and driving foot traffic to physical stores.
Retailers across categories have successfully harnessed the power of pop culture collaborations to generate excitement – and visits – by leaning into trending themes. On October 8th, 2024, for example, Wendy’s launched its epic Krabby Patty Collab, inspired by the beloved SpongeBob franchise. And during the week of the offering, the chain experienced a remarkable 21.5% increase in foot traffic compared to an average week that year.
Similarly, Crumbl – adept at creating buzz through manufactured scarcity – sparked a frenzy with the debut of its exclusive Olivia Rodrigo GUTS cookie. Initially available only at select locations near the artist’s concert venues, the cookie was launched nationwide for a limited time from August 19th to 24th, 2024. This buzz-driven release resulted in a 27.7% traffic surge during the week of the launch, as fans rushed to get a taste of the star-studded treat.
And it’s not just dining chains benefiting from these pop-culture moments. On February 16th, 2025, Bath & Body Works launched a Disney Princess-inspired fragrance line, perfect for fans of Cinderella, Ariel, Belle, Jasmine, Moana, and Tiana. The collaboration resonated, fueling a 23.2% visit spike for the chain.
While tapping into existing pop-culture trends has the ability to drive traffic, so does creating a new one. Analysis of movie theater visits on National Popcorn Day (Sunday, January 19th, 2025) shows how initiating a trend can spur social media engagement and impact in-person traffic to physical retail spaces.
National Popcorn Day was a successful promotional holiday across the movie theater industry in 2025. Both Regal Cinemas and AMC Theatres offered popcorn-based promotions on the day, but Cinemark’s “Bring Your Own Bucket” campaign, in particular, appears to have spurred a significant foot traffic boost during the event.
Visits to Cinemark on National Popcorn Day in 2025 increased 57.5% relative to the Sunday visit average for January and February 2025, as movie-goers showed off their out-of-the-bucket popcorn receptacles on social media. Clearly, by starting a trend that invited creativity and expression, Cinemark was able to amplify the impact of its National Popcorn Day promotion.
Location intelligence illuminates some of the key trends shaping consumer behavior in 2025. The data reveals that value-driven shopping, demand for flexibility across touchpoints, and the power of unique retail moments have the power to drive consumer engagement and the success of retail categories, brands, and products.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Downtown districts in the nation’s major cities attract domestic travelers all year long with their iconic sights, lively entertainment, and diverse dining offerings. But each hub follows its own rhythm, shaped by distinct seasonal peaks and dips in visitor flow.
This white paper examines downtown hotel visitation patterns in four of the nation’s most popular destinations for domestic tourists: Miami, Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. Focusing on 20 downtown hotels in each city, the analysis explores seasonal variations in domestic travel, city-specific dynamics, and differentiating factors.
Domestic tourism has rebounded strongly in recent years, and hotels in Miami and Chicago have been the biggest beneficiaries. In 2024, visits to analyzed hotels in each of these cities’ downtown areas grew by 8.9% and 7.4%, respectively, compared to 2023. Meanwhile, hotels in downtown and midtown Manhattan saw a more modest 2.0% increase, while Los Angeles experienced a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline in downtown hotel visits.
One factor that may be driving Miami and Chicago’s stronger performance is their higher proportion of long-distance visitors, defined as those visiting from over 250 miles away. Miami remains a top destination for snowbirds and spring breakers, while Chicago serves as a cultural and entertainment hub for the sprawling Midwest. These long-distance leisure travelers may be more likely to splurge on downtown hotel stays during their trips, helping drive hotel visit growth in the two cities.
By contrast, hotels in the Los Angeles and Manhattan city centers drew lower shares of domestic travelers coming from less than 250 miles away. These shorter-haul domestic tourists may be less likely to splurge on downtown hotels than those taking longer vacations. Both cities are also surrounded by numerous regional getaway options that can draw long-haul leisure travelers away from their downtown cores.
Each of the four analyzed cities has its own unique ebbs and flows – and city center hotel visits reflect these patterns. Miami, with its warm, sunny climate, experiences influxes of tourists during the winter and spring, with March seeing the biggest jump in downtown hotel visits last year (13.0% above the monthly visit average). Chicago, which thrives in the summer with its many festivals and events, saw its biggest downtown hotel visit bump in August. Meanwhile, Manhattan experienced a major uptick in December, likely fueled by holiday tourism and New Year celebrations, and Los Angeles visits were highest in the summertime.
What drives these seasonal visit peaks? Miami has long been a top tourism destination, especially in early spring, when snowbirds and spring breakers flock to the city for sun and relaxation. In recent years, the city has seen a rise in short-term domestic tourism, suggesting that the city is becoming increasingly popular for weekend getaways. According to the Placer.ai Tourism Dashboard, the share of domestic tourists staying just one or two nights grew from 71.7% in March 2022 to 78.3% in March 2024.
This shift aligns with an impressive increase in the magnitude of downtown Miami’s springtime hotel visit peak: In March 2022, visits to downtown hotels were 5.0% above the monthly average for the year, a share that more than doubled by 2024 to 12.9%.
These numbers may mean that more people are choosing to head to Miami for a quick break from the cold – and staying in downtown hotels to make the most of their short getaway.
Chicago’s major August visit spike was likely driven by the Windy City’s impressive lineup of major summer festivals, from Lollapalooza to the Chicago Air and Water Show, which draw thousands of attendees from across the country.
Lollapalooza fueled the largest visit spike to the city – between Thursday, August 1st and Sunday, August 4th, visits to downtown Chicago hotels surged between 51.1% and 63.8% above 2024 daily averages for those days of the week. The Air and Water Show and the Chicago Jazz Festival also generated significant hotel visit increases – highlighting the boost these events bring to the city’s tourism and hospitality sector.
The Big Apple draws a diverse mix of visitors throughout the year. But in December – the city’s peak tourist season – visitors pour in from all over the country to skate in Rockefeller Center, browse Fifth Avenue’s festive window displays and experience the city’s unique holiday magic.
And analyzing data from hotels in midtown and downtown Manhattan reveals a striking shift in the types of visitors who stay in the heart of NYC during the holiday season. While visitors from other urban centers dominated downtown hotel stays throughout most of the year – accounting for 47.9% of visits from January to November 2024 – their share dropped to 42.0% in December 2024. Meanwhile, the share of guests from suburban areas and small towns rose from 37.3% to 41.0%, and the share of guests from rural and semi-rural areas nearly doubled, from 3.5% to 6.1%.
These patterns suggest that, though Manhattan typically attracts a wide range of visitors, the holiday season is uniquely appealing to tourists from smaller towns and suburban areas. Understanding these trends can provide crucial context for hotels and civic stakeholders alike as they work to maximize the opportunities presented by the city’s December visit surge.
Los Angeles hotels also experience significant demographic shifts during peak season. In July, visits to downtown LA hotels surged by 15.3% relative to the 2024 monthly visit average. And a closer look at audience segmentation data suggests a corresponding surge in the share of "Flourishing Families" – an Experian: Mosaic segment consisting of affluent, middle-aged households with children. Throughout the year, "Flourishing Families" comprised between 7.7% and 8.7% of the census block groups (CBGs) driving visits to downtown LA hotels. But in July, this share jumped to 9.9%.
These families may be taking advantage of summer vacations to enjoy Los Angeles’ cultural attractions and entertainment. Hotels and city stakeholders who understand the appeal the city holds for this demographic can better cater to them through family-friendly promotions and strategic marketing efforts to target these households.
Downtowns are making a comeback – and hotels in the heart of the nation’s major tourist hubs are reaping the benefits. By understanding who frequents these downtown hotels and when, local businesses and civic leaders can optimize their resource management and strategic planning to make the most of these opportunities.
