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After the rollercoaster performance of the retail industry in 2025, the first quarter of 2026 would serve as a barometer for consumer sentiment, resilience and industry stability. In actuality, this past quarter has once again provided obstacles, including winter weather, geo political conflict and retail bankruptcies. However, even for discretionary categories, the outlook still remains positive amidst the uncertainty.
Foot traffic to major brick-and-mortar retail chains were up 1.5% year-over-year Q1 2026. And while some of that growth is due to somewhat easy comparisons, with discretionary industries stagnating over the past few years – especially in the first quarter of last year – the slight increase also suggests that some discretionary categories are beginning to regain traction. And while non-discretionary industries continue to outperform their general merchandise counterparts, there is still plenty to celebrate over the last three months.
The visitation trends this past quarter underscore that consumer resilience remains strong, as consumerism doesn’t take a backseat to economic uncertainty. All of the macro-economic trends point otherwise, with unemployment and layoffs rising, debt accumulating and the housing market cooling, but consumers are still shopping. Retail bifurcation continues, with value based offerings still driving much of the growth, but consumers in the U.S. can’t seem to talk themselves out of being influenced to buy.
Digging into some of the top trends and performances of the quarter, it is easier to see where consumers are putting their attention, and in turn how those categories highlight the shifts in consumer behavior.
One of the largest overall stories of the quarter was the intense winter weather that span across the majority of the country. Winter Storm Fern, which hit the eastern half of the U.S. during the last week of January, had a material impact on foot traffic across categories, in particular non-essential store trips. The week prior (January 19th) brought stock-ups and pre-emptive trips, while the following week brought temporarily shuttered stores and fewer trips in many states. While winter weather has always created disruptions for shoppers, this year felt particularly impactful with more store closures than in previous years.
In times of uncertainty, consumers crave hobbies and experiences that are celebratory and help them to feel good. Participating in or picking-up a new hobby gives consumers some agency and also allows them to connect to others in their communities or through social media. The power of the hobby began to show up on foot traffic in 2025, and the trend has only accelerated faster in the first quarter.
Michaels, Paper Source and Barnes & Noble have all grown traffic in the first quarter of this year, truly underscoring that there is still a place for discretionary spending with today’s consumer. These retailers have all succeeded in building a foundation for shoppers to see these visits as indispensable. This could be due in part to the experiences and services that these retailers offer alongside tangible products, such as stationary & invitations, author signings and readings, and framing service or classes, which help separate a visit from a simple transaction.
The consolidation of retail banners has also benefitted the major names in the hobby, gift and craft category, particularly in the case of Michaels. But, less competition in today’s retail industry doesn’t instantly signal success; these chains have had to define their reason to exist in a digital-first shopping world.
The home improvement category is another area that has reversed its 2025 trend in the first quarter. This category did benefit from favorable comparable periods, but its growth also reflects larger shifts amongst consumers.
Both Lowe’s & Home Depot posted growth in store visits in Q1 2026, a sign that traffic from professionals and do-it-yourself consumers are heading back into building and repair. This traffic increase is all the more impressive given the housing market's current uncertainty as sales slump amidst lower inventory and rising costs – which in some cases may push consumers to pull back on moving or upgrade plans.
It was anticipated that 2025 might bring about a replacement cycle for those who invested in their homes during the pandemic, whether through home improvement or decorating, but this prediction never fully materialized. Now, the positive traffic may indicate that some of that demand may have been delayed, shifting some of the consumption into 2026 as consumers are less bullish on the housing and job markets, and trying to improve what is currently in their possession.
Winter weather was also a factor in the growth for the major retailers, as consumers looked to prepare for storms in advance or outfit their homes with generators, snow removal equipment and other essentials. Looking at the week leading up to winter storm Fern, both major chains benefited from the increased stooking up.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, home improvement retail demand can be subject to volatility in the market. If geopolitical conflict continues and oil prices remain elevated, the cost of home materials could rise and cool the demand for the category once again.
One of the most watched categories as a barometer for discretionary demand has been apparel. It is a category that, in many ways, best exemplifies the current bifurcation of the retail industry based on consumer priorities. Value remains the north star of the category, while full-price chains in apparel, sporting goods and department stores struggle to find their place in the crowd. Even the luxury market has stalled over the last nine months, despite the resilience of higher-income households. Apparel continues to be the bellwether for demand.
Looking at the performance of the category in the first quarter, off-price was once again the winning sector, comping its strong performance last year. Even winter weather didn’t deter shoppers too much, as they looked to off-price chains for key items and winter gear. The frequency of visits to off-price retailers remains a key to their success; repeat visitation is higher for these chains, which helps to boost overall traffic.
Apparel chains and sporting goods retailers fared similarly, with slower traffic overall. Within these subcategories, shifting athleisure preference, value orientation and digital focus all play a role in the tepid performance. There are still some bright spots, with Gap Inc. and Victoria’s Secret improving their business.
A major headline early in the first quarter was the announced bankruptcy and restructuring of Saks Global. As part of the restructuring, the off-price based Saks Off Fifth banner has been shuttered as well as some full line Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue locations.
The luxury market has not been immune to the shift in consumer behavior over the past year, and the first quarter of this year has shown a deceleration of traffic to luxury department stores, even despite the gains made last year from brands like Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom. The stall in traffic to this category reverses much of what happened in 2025, and it will be interesting to see if shoppers return in the coming months.
Beauty, despite some small setbacks in early 2025, continues its dominance as the category to watch for growth. The category began to rebound in the middle of last year, and traffic grew in the first quarter of 2026. Beauty has maintained its momentum through innovation, in-store experience and shifting consumer needs, as the category responds seamlessly to its shoppers.
Major chains like Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works led the charge in terms of performance, while smaller brands like Bluemercury faced slower traffic trends. Beauty has always been a category that thrives in economic uncertainty, and with the expansion of the store footprints over the last few years, beauty retailers have been ready for the increased attention.
As mentioned earlier, consumers still want to shop despite lower consumer sentiment, and the dopamine boost of a beauty retail visit can sustain shoppers who might otherwise be trying to limit their spend. Small indulgences are still top of mind for consumers, which certainly will continue to benefit beauty throughout the remainder of the year.
Finally, at the end of the first quarter, it was announced that digitally native footwear retailer, Allbirds, would sell for only $39 million, despite its prior valuation at $4 billion. Digitally native brands have been expanding store fleets once again, but Allbirds serves as a discretionary cautionary tale.
The footwear category has always been dominated by fashion trends; one day a brand is on fire, the next day it’s almost extinct. Allbirds followed a similar trend, with rapid retail expansion during the pre-pandemic period.
As has been the case, remaining relevant to audiences is still a challenge, even for buzz-worthy digitally native brands. Building lasting relationships with shoppers extends beyond being the product of the moment, and many of these brands are pivoting to focus on planting deeper roots.
Digitally native brands have a right to exist in discretionary retail. In many ways, they are responsible for much of the innovation that has come out of general merchandise categories over the past decade. But, there is still a lot of risk in the business of building new brands, and in the case of Allbirds, diversification that might be needed to keep shoppers coming back.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Traffic to brick and mortar retail chains remained essentially flat in March 2026 following a period of steady year-over-year (YoY) gains – although calendar shifts may account for some of the apparent slowdown.
Saturday is typically the busiest day for in-store shopping, and March 2026 had one fewer Saturday than March 2025, which likely weighed on overall foot traffic, as average daily visits on each weekday in March 2026 were all higher than the monthly average. At the same time, the increase in average visits per weekday on most days was smaller than the YoY monthly growth in January and February – suggesting that consumer caution may have also played a role in the March traffic trends. April data should bring more clarity as to how much of the slowdown was driven by a calendar shift versus emerging consumer caution.
Meanwhile, traffic to e-commerce distribution centers skyrocketed in March – with visits rising 16.2% compared to March 2025 – perhaps helped by a different calendar shift. The shift in Easter – from April 20 in 2025 to April 5 in 2026 – likely pulled some holiday shopping into late March, boosting activity.
On the manufacturing side, foot traffic to plants remained relatively flat in March 2026, rising just 0.7% YoY nationwide.
The March ISM Manufacturing PMI showed growth in new orders and production compared to February, while employment declined – pulling foot traffic trends in opposite directions. The muted visit growth suggests facilities are maintaining operational intensity even as headcounts shrink, pointing to manufacturing activity becoming less labor-dependent, with output continuing to drive facility usage despite subdued hiring.
March’s data suggests that underlying consumer and industrial activity remains resilient, with calendar dynamics distorting headline trends rather than signaling a true slowdown. Looking ahead, as calendar effects normalize, retail and logistics activity may better reflect this underlying strength, while manufacturing continues its shift toward higher output with leaner workforces.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Dining closed out Q1 2026 on uneven ground. While February offered renewed momentum across segments, macroeconomic headwinds continue to influence dining behavior – putting some categories on more favorable growth trajectories than others. We dive into the data below.
Quarterly dining data underscores a clear standout. Fast casual posted a 3.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in Q1 2026 visits – outperforming other dining formats and signaling strong demand for the segment.
The trend likely reflects the current economic climate. Fast casual’s perception of quality, at a price point still below full-service dining, appears to be resonating as consumers weigh discretionary spending.
By contrast, traffic for the QSR segment remained essentially on par with last year in Q1 2026 – a sign that LTOs and value offerings are helping maintain traffic, even as the segment faces pressure from lower-income pullback.
Lastly, full-service restaurants showed the weakest performance, with visits declining 1.4% YoY in Q1 2026 – potentially reflecting softer demand as consumers scale back on higher-cost dining occasions.
A broader view of monthly visit patterns provides additional context to these trends.
The graph below shows that between April and October 2025, QSR traffic was essentially flat or below the previous year’s levels, likely a reflection of consumer sentiment regarding inflation and a degraded value perception in fast food.
But during the same window, full-service restaurants mustered several YoY visit lifts, suggesting that higher-income consumers continued to support sit-down dining – even as more price-sensitive audiences reeled from inflation.
However, the landscape began to shift toward the end of 2025. QSR trends improved, reflecting refreshed value strategies and LTOs designed to re-engage cost-conscious diners.
At the same time, full-service performance weakened. After a sharp dip in December 2025, the segment saw only a partial recovery before declining again in March 2026 – likely influenced by one fewer Saturday compared to March 2025. But overall, this pattern suggests that sustained economic pressure may be prompting even higher-income consumers to moderate discretionary spending in recent months.
Fast casual, meanwhile, has maintained an upward growth trajectory throughout the last twelve months, reinforcing its role as a middle-ground that can succeed in dynamic economic conditions.
Examining visit patterns by day of week reveals another layer of evolving consumer dining behavior amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
Fast casual’s Q1 2026 strength was driven primarily by weekday traffic, which rose 4.7% YoY, alongside a more modest 1.3% increase on weekends. This imbalance suggests that fast casual’s momentum is tied to workweek routines – lunch breaks, quick dinners, and on-the-go meals – where demand for convenience and perceived quality intersect. In the current macroeconomic environment, these habitual visits appear more resilient than discretionary weekend outings.
QSR’s visits followed a more muted version of this pattern. Weekday visits rose 0.6%, while weekend traffic dipped slightly (-0.4%), indicating that mid-week promotions may be sustaining convenience-driven demand, but basic value may be less effective at driving weekend traffic.
Full service visits, meanwhile, declined across both weekparts, with a steeper drop on weekends (-1.9%) than weekdays (-0.6%). Weekends – when busy schedules free-up for socializing and celebrations – are a cornerstone for sit-down dining, and this gap may point to the increased vulnerability of the full-service segment as consumers reassess discretionary spend.
The data points to a dining environment increasingly defined by value – with nuance in how that value is delivered.
QSR’s steady performance underscores the importance of affordability, particularly for budget-conscious consumers, while fast casual’s growth suggests that value is increasingly defined by price, quality, and convenience that justify spend.
On the other hand, full-service restaurants, and their elevated experience, appear more exposed to value-conscious decision-making. If economic pressures persist, more discretionary, sit-down dining occasions may come under greater scrutiny from consumers.
For more dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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After a weather-disrupted start to the year, March delivered a clear signal that the office recovery is once again moving forward. The latest data points to a seasonal rebound alongside tightening workplace policies translating into sustained return-to-office (RTO) gains.
March 2026 marked the busiest March for office visits since the onset of COVID, with traffic just 26.5% below 2019 levels.
Part of this strength was calendar-driven, as the month included 22 working days compared to 21 in both 2019 and 2025. But even after adjusting for this difference, the underlying trend remained firmly positive. Average visits per working day were 29.8% below 2019 levels and 6.4% higher than March 2025, pointing to real and continuing momentum in the market.
On a regional basis, substantive year-over-year (YoY) gains were seen across every major market but Washington, D.C., where adjusting for working days revealed a 3.4% YoY visit gap – possibly influenced by a mid-month severe storm event that may have kept some workers home in a region relatively unaccustomed to such disruptions.
Miami and New York remained at the top of the recovery curve, with office visits exceeding 90% of pre-COVID baselines.
But the more interesting story is unfolding on the West Coast, where some of the nation’s biggest recovery laggards are making steady progress. Los Angeles recorded the strongest YoY growth of any analyzed market, supported in part by the comparison to early 2025, when the city was still reeling from January’s wildfires. San Francisco, where an AI-driven recovery remains in full swing, also continued to build momentum, with visits up 15.4% YoY. The city is steadily climbing the post-pandemic recovery rankings – after avoiding the bottom spot since September 2025, it edged up to third from last for the second month in a row.
As hybrid policies continue to tighten and companies like Stellantis join the growing list of employers requiring five-day-a-week attendance, workplace behavior is shifting slowly but surely toward more in-person work. And While office attendance is unlikely to return to pre-COVID norms, additional mandates set to take effect later this year at organizations ranging from Home Depot to the California state government point to continued gains in office utilization in the months ahead.
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Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
While artificial intelligence was the undeniable protagonist of Shoptalk Spring 2026, the discussions illuminated a landscape far more nuanced than simple automation. Retailers are currently navigating a perfect storm of behavioral shifts, ranging from the physiological impact of GLP-1 medications to the cultural resurgence of the mall driven by Gen Alpha. In response, the industry is moving away from rigid demand planning toward a model defined by extreme operational agility, where the lines between digital agents and physical storefronts are increasingly blurred – an evolution reflected in the four key takeaways from this year’s event.
The most significant evolution in the digital space is the transition from traditional e-commerce to Agentic Commerce, or "A-Commerce" (hat tip Shoptalk’s Joe Laszlo). As AI agents begin to autonomously manage discovery, price comparison, and purchasing for consumers, the retail industry must pivot to serve these non-human decision-makers. This shift has the potential to disrupt the long-standing trend of retail concentration. By lowering the cost of customer acquisition and brand formation, AI is effectively leveling the playing field, allowing niche brands to challenge established giants and potentially reversing a decade of market consolidation.
Consumer behavior is currently evolving faster than at any point in recent history. The widespread adoption of GLP-1 medications has created a "lifestyle domino effect" that stretches far beyond the pharmacy. Data shows these medications are not only shifting primary grocery destinations but are also triggering a chain reaction in discretionary spending. A significant weight loss often prompts a total wardrobe refresh, which in turn leads to increased spending on housewares as consumers feel a renewed desire to host social gatherings and showcase their updated personal aesthetic.
Simultaneously, Gen Alpha is coming of age and bringing a surprising nostalgia for the physical "mall hangout" culture. Brands are responding by leaning heavily into "recommerce" and resale markets to build long-term community engagement. In this environment, lifetime value is no longer just about the initial transaction but about fostering a continuous cycle of brand interaction through niche marketplaces and circular economies.
The physical store is not dying; it is being re-engineered to function like a high-end service environment. The industry is moving toward a "hotel check-in" model where computer vision and loyalty integrations allow retailers to identify customers the moment they cross the threshold. This level of tracking is part of a new value exchange: consumers grant access to their data in return for hyper-personalized in-store media and a frictionless shopping experience. This evolution notably aims to eliminate "security friction," such as locked display cabinets, by replacing them with seamless, background-monitoring technologies.
Behind these front-end changes lies a total re-engineering of the supply chain. The traditional discipline of demand planning, which relies on historical data, is being replaced by "demand sensing." This model uses real-time AI to create highly reactive inventory flows that can pivot instantly based on current market signals. Furthermore, the economics of fulfillment have reached a tipping point; micro-fulfillment centers are now financially viable at a threshold of just 500 orders per day. This democratization of automation allows a broader range of retailers to offer localized, rapid delivery that was once the exclusive domain of the industry's largest players.
The retail playbook is being aggressively rewritten in 2026 as the industry moves past the era of mere experimentation and into one of total operational integration. The convergence of autonomous "A-Commerce" agents, the physiological lifestyle shifts triggered by GLP-1 medications, and the unexpected cultural resurgence of the physical mall among Gen Alpha has rendered legacy forecasting models obsolete. Success in this new landscape now depends on a retailer’s ability to bridge the gap between high-tech digital convenience and hyper-personalized, frictionless physical experiences. Ultimately, the winners of this cycle will be those who replace static planning with real-time demand sensing, ensuring they remain as agile as the rapidly evolving consumers they serve.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Despite the ongoing economic uncertainty, year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic trends to brick and mortar retail chains has been generally positive all year, with only three out of the first fourteen weeks of the year posting visit declines.
During Easter week, visits rose 5.7% compared to the week of March 31 to April 4, 2025 – the second biggest YoY increase of the year so far, following Valentine's Day week. And while some of this lift likely reflects calendar shifts, as Easter fell later in April in 2025, it also underscores consumers’ continued willingness to shop – especially for special occasions – despite broader headwinds.
Indeed, AI-powered location intelligence also shows a 1.9% increase in traffic compared to Easter Week 2025, and a 7.4% lift compared to the year-to-date weekly retail traffic average – highlighting current consumer resilience.
Easter generated increases in retail foot traffic across most of the country, but the strongest lift was in the Southeast, as can be seen on the map below. The region’s outsized performance likely reflects a combination of factors, including stronger cultural emphasis on Easter-related gatherings and traditions, favorable spring weather that supports in-store shopping, and a higher reliance on brick-and-mortar retail formats.
Retail traffic data for Easter Week 2026 suggests that retail traffic in 2026 is being supported by stable underlying demand, with holidays like Easter acting as accelerators rather than compensating for weakness. At the same time, the Southeast’s outperformance reinforces the need for regionally tailored strategies, as the ability to convert seasonal demand into store visits varies significantly across markets.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
