.svg)
Two of the biggest sporting events of the year – the Super Bowl and the Daytona 500 – took place in February 2025. We dove into the location analytics and demographic characteristics of visitors for both events to find out who attends the Big Game and the Great American Race.
Super Bowl tickets aren’t cheap, and combined with elevated travel costs, attending the game comes with a hefty price tag. So it may be no surprise that “Ultra Wealth Families” – Spatial.ai: Personalive segment for the nation’s wealthiest households – are consistently the largest segment within the stadiums’ captured markets* on game day. The same trend persists for NFL’s conference championships, indicating that regardless of the region in which the biggest games are played, fans in attendance come from relatively similar, affluent households.
*A venue’s captured market is derived by the census block groups (CBGs) from which the venue draws its visitors, weighted by the share of visits from each, and thus reflects the population that actually visits the venue.
Visitors to the Daytona 500, it seems, are a more diverse cohort. Although the race is the most prestigious in NASCAR, tickets are available at price-points that suit a variety of budgets. And analyzing the visitor base of Daytona International Speedway on race day in 2025 reveals that the event’s relative affordability seemed to have attracted visitors from all walks of life: The venue’s trade area included a wide range of psychographic segments – ranging from the wealthiest families to retirement-age folks on a budget – demonstrating the diversity of the audience in attendance.
Analysis of the 2025 Super Bowl and Daytona 500’s trade areas, which reflect the regions from which the venues received visitors on the day, reveals other key differences between the events’ attendees.
As was the case for previous Super Bowls, the 2025 Super Bowl at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA drew visitors from the country’s major metro areas – and from some of the wealthiest – including New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Miami. The trade area also revealed elevated attendance from the teams’ home regions – Kansas City, MO and Philadelphia, PA – likely by the squads’ die-hard fans, and robust visitation from the host region (the New Orleans area), as local football fans appeared to take advantage of the opportunity to attend a Super Bowl close to home.
The 2025 Daytona 500's trade area, however, revealed a more tilted regional distribution of visitors. Although the event did draw fans from all over the country, most of the Daytona International Speedway attendees came from the Eastern United States, and Florida in particular – which hosts the race every year. This suggests that while the Daytona 500 attracts visitors from all over the country, the event is particularly popular among locals.
Want more data-driven event insights? Visit Placer.ai.
Wondering why Dave's Hot Chicken is reportedly in talks to sell itself to Roark Capital for $1 billion? One key reason is its strong growth potential. In 2024, chicken chains outpaced the broader QSR category in both new restaurant openings and increased visits per location. Dave's Hot Chicken stands out among them, with Placer's data showing it was one of the top performers in visit-per-location growth among chains with more than 100 locations last year.
The Kroger Company is one of the largest grocery retailers in the U.S, and the company continues to play a key role in the supermarket industry in 2025. We dove into traffic data for the company as a whole and for its leading banners to understand what 2025 may hold in store for the corporation.
Kroger and its variety of banners play a key role in the U.S. grocery landscape, with the company receiving around 16% of all visits to grocery stores nationwide (excluding non-traditional grocers such as superstores and wholesale clubs). And although Kroger’s visit share varies by state, the company receives more than a quarter of all grocery visits in 18 states, including four states – West Virginia, Utah, Colorado, and Kentucky – where Kroger receives more than half of the state’s grocery visits.
It seems, then, that the company is positioned to continue having a major impact on the U.S. grocery market in 2025 – even without the addition of Alberstons’ grocery portfolio.
The company’s recent visit performance also highlights Kroger’s ongoing resilience within an evolving grocery landscape. Traffic data shows that overall visits to Kroger chains held steady in 2024, with yearly visits just 1.3% lower than in 2023.
And the visit stability continued into 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) visits up every week in January 2025 just slightly below 2024 levels in February 2025 – indicating that shoppers are remaining loyal to Kroger’s chains amidst the inflationary environment.
Kroger operates a variety of banners, each catering to different regional markets and consumer segments. And analyzing 2024 visit data for Kroger’s largest chains shows overall stability across the portfolio – although some banners experienced slightly stronger growth while others did post minor visit gaps.
California-based Food 4 Less led the way with a 2.5% YoY visit increase in 2024, and Colorado-based King Soopers posted YoY visit growth as well. Smith’s, which operates in most of the West, Ralphs in California, and Harris Teeter in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic stayed within one percentage point of their 2023 visit performance. Arizona-based Fry’s and the company’s namesake banner Kroger also remained close to their 2023 traffic levels, while Fred Meyer and Pick ‘n Save saw minimal YoY visit gaps.
Kroger’s steady foot traffic highlights its strong consumer loyalty and adaptability. And as the grocery sector continues to shift, the company’s ability to maintain its stable performance across its portfolio and regions of operations will ensure it maintains its status as a grocery giant in 2025 and beyond.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai.
Walmart’s recent acquisition of the Pittsburgh, PA-area Monroeville Mall signals a new chapter for the retail giant, creating opportunities for both Walmart and the mall itself. Why did Walmart choose this particular property, what makes it such an appealing prospect – and what might the company do with the space?
We dove into the data to find out.
Unsurprisingly, shoppers also interact differently with malls – including the Monroeville Mall purchased by Walmart – than they do with Walmart. In 2024, for example, 39.4% of indoor mall visits nationwide took place on weekends, compared to just 33.6% for Walmart. Mall shoppers were also more likely to travel further for their visits and stay longer, partly due to the entertainment and dining options malls typically offer. (Monroeville Mall, for instance, is home to a Cinemark movie theater). By moving into the mall space, Walmart stands to reach a new kind of shopper, both demographically and behaviorally.
Why did Walmart choose to begin its foray into malls with the Monroeville Mall? Foot traffic data points to a unique balance here: The Monroeville Mall audience is different enough to expand Walmart’s reach, yet still similar in ways that could make it easier to convert new shoppers.
Analyzing Walmart’s trade areas with demographic data from STI: PopStats, for example, reveals that, on average, indoor mall shoppers tend to be more affluent than Walmart shoppers. In 2024, the median household income (HHI) of Walmart’s captured market was $64.5K – noticeably below the indoor mall median of $88.5K. But Monroeville Mall’s captured market had a median HHI of $62.8K – slightly below that of local Walmarts in the Pittsburgh, PA CBSA. Monroeville shoppers were also more likely to visit Walmart than shoppers at other malls, suggesting a natural overlap between the two visitor bases.
At the same time, Monroeville Mall offers Walmart access to new audience segments. In 2024, Monroeville Mall’s captured market showed significantly higher proportions of “Singles and Starters” and “Suburban Style” visitors (the latter encompassing middle-aged, suburban families with upscale incomes). Meanwhile, its share of the older “Autumn Years” segment – though still high – was smaller than that of Walmart’s base, highlighting the opportunity to engage a wider range of demographics.
Walmart has yet to announce specific plans for its new acquisition – though some have speculated that its partnership with Cypress Equities to “reimagine” the space signals a mix of retail, entertainment, and other amenities. Location analytics hint at several potential directions Walmart might pursue.
As consumers have changed their shopping habits, many malls have doubled down on experiential offerings – including on-site gyms, which deliver regular, repeat visits. And location analytics show that adding a fitness club to the Monroeville property may be especially beneficial for Walmart. Over the past year, Monroeville visitors were more likely to visit leading gym chains like Planet Fitness, Anytime Fitness, and LA Fitness compared to the average mall-goer nationwide.
And examining some of Monroeville Mall’s successful tenants highlights additional potential strategies for Walmart. Malls have faced considerable headwinds in recent years, and the downturn appears to have impacted the Monroeville Mall as well, with overall foot traffic dipping somewhat year over year (YoY) in 2024. But some tenants – including Barnes & Noble and Harbor Freight Tools – saw YoY visit upticks.
Visits to entertainment-focused offerings also increased, with the complex’s Full Throttle Adrenaline Park logging a 6.1% YoY foot traffic boost. And taking a broader look at the consumer habits of Monroeville visitors reveals an affinity for eatertainment: In 2024, 14.3% of Monroeville Mall-goers frequented a Dave & Busters, compared to just 7.4% for indoor mall visitors nationwide.
While Walmart’s ultimate intentions for Monroeville Mall remain under wraps, location analytics reveal a world of possibilities. And as retail continues to shift, Monroeville Mall may stand as a powerful case study of how a traditional big-box brand can successfully bridge into the mall space, capturing new audiences and invigorating a retail property ready for reinvention.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
In February 2024, Gap Inc. hired Zac Posen as Creative Director, tasking the designer with revitalizing the companies’ portfolio of brands. A year later, we analyzed the data to understand where the company stands today and uncover untapped opportunities for growth.
In 2024, visits to most Gap brands declined slightly compared to 2023, with the company’s four banners collectively experiencing a year-over-year (YoY) traffic dip of 3.5%.
Athleta outperformed the other three brands as well as the overall apparel (excluding off-price and department stores) average, with yearly visits up 0.2% and positive quarterly traffic growth for two of the four quarters. Old Navy came in second, starting the year strong with a 4.2% YoY increase in Q1 visits and ending 2024 with Q4 visits down just 2.4% – outperforming the industry’s YoY dip of 3.3%. And though Gap did lag slightly behind the overall apparel average, the brand managed to stay relatively close to its 2023 visit levels, indicating that its performance is stabilizing.
Meanwhile, Banana Republic experienced the sharpest visit declines with 2024 traffic down 9.6% YoY – indicating that the brand continues to face significant challenges.
Banana Republic’s 2024 performance continues a multi-year trend of declining traffic, despite the brand’s relatively affluent consumer base – an audience that, in theory, should have positioned the brand to weather the current inflationary environment more effectively.
But the brand may be positioning itself for a comeback. Last year, Banana Republic underwent a leadership change, with Gap Inc. CEO Richard Dixon stating that “2024 will be about getting back to the basics.” The brand has been redesigning select stores and leaning into influencer marketing with the goal of “reestablishing the brand to thrive in the premium lifestyle space.”
And as return to office mandates continue to roll in – reinvigorating the long dormant demand for business casual and office wear – the chain is well positioned for a comeback.
Location intelligence analysis also reveals an additional growth opportunity. Banana Republic is the only Gap banner without a dedicated sportswear line. Athleta specializes in athletic wear, Gap offers GapFit, and Old Navy’s activewear line has been a core component of the banner’s success in recent years.
But the data indicates that Banana Republic shoppers are just as active as visitors of the other Gap banners – in fact, cross-visit data suggests that those who shop at Banana Republic frequent fitness chains at similar rates as Athleta customers.
Analyzing cross-visitation to leading sporting goods retailers also indicates high demand for sportswear among Banana Republic shoppers: Consumers who visit Banana Republic visit Dick’s Sporting Goods and Academy Sports + Outdoors at higher rates than Gap Shoppers, and visit lululemon and REI at higher rates than both Gap and Old Navy visitors. This data strongly suggests that Banana Republic customers would likely embrace an expanded product mix that includes premium athleisure and sportswear.
While Gap Inc. already offers premium women’s activewear through its Athleta brand, none of Gap Inc.’s existing brands cater to the growing demand for premium men’s athletic wear. Expanding Banana Republic’s offerings to include a high-end athleisure line – with a specific focus on menswear – could help the brand carve out a niche in this fast-growing segment while leveraging its existing customer base’s interest in performance apparel.
Beyond product expansion, this move could align with Banana Republic’s broader repositioning efforts, reinforcing its identity as a premium lifestyle brand that caters to both professional and active lifestyles. Given the increasing overlap between workwear and athleisure, a thoughtfully designed sportswear line could also strengthen Banana Republic’s appeal to younger, fashion-conscious consumers who seek versatility in their wardrobes.
As Gap Inc. navigates its next phase under Zac Posen’s creative leadership, identifying and leveraging untapped opportunities—such as Banana Republic’s athleisure potential—will be critical for reinvigorating the company’s portfolio. By strategically diversifying its offerings, Gap Inc. can not only address shifting consumer preferences but also carve out a more competitive position in an evolving retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
Department stores continue to adapt to evolving consumer preferences and an ever-changing retail landscape. We looked at the latest location analytics for traditional and luxury department stores to uncover how they are finding success in today’s dynamic apparel space.
Consumers’ prioritization of value has significantly impacted the apparel space in recent years.
Fueled by tepid consumer confidence and rampant inflation, demand for off-price has soared, putting pressure on department stores and traditional apparel retailers. As a result, off-price’s share of total visits to the apparel space steadily increased between 2021 (36.4%) and 2024 (41.5%), while the visit shares of our traditional department stores and other apparel segments declined.
But luxury department stores, which serve a higher-income clientele, appear to have remained relatively insulated from the rise in budget-conscious shopping, as the relative share of visits to this segment held steady over the past four years.
Diving into cross-visitation trends also reveals the impact of a growing off-price segment on the department store space.
Between 2021 and 2024, the share of both Nordstrom’s and Dillard’s visitors that also visited one of the leading off-price chains increased – suggesting that shoppers at both traditional and premium department stores feel the draw of off-price apparel. (Still, the shares of Dillard’s visitors that also visited one of the off-price chains was generally larger than that of Nordstrom’s, suggesting that visitors to the more upscale department store were less inclined to also visit an off-price store.)
And it seems that leading department stores are already trying to meet the growing demand for discounts within their consumer base. Dillard’s emphasis on private-label merchandise helps keep products affordable without compromising quality. Meanwhile, Nordstrom continues to expand its off-price format – Nordstrom Rack – to capitalize on demand for value in the apparel space.
Still, value-seeking behavior on the part of the consumer doesn’t always mean prioritization of discounts, and one way that several department stores are adding value – and finding success – is by investing in the shopping experience.
Bloomingdale’s emphasized experiential events and exclusive product launches to engage consumers last year, including several pop-culture-inspired collections. The department store’s visits increased 1.5% YoY in 2024, perhaps reflecting the demand for Bloomingdale’s immersive and culturally relevant environment.
Meanwhile, Nordstrom’s digital strategy demonstrated how a seamless omnichannel platform can elevate the shopping experience. The brand’s new app uses generative AI to make personalized style recommendations and allows users to check merchandise availability or make a stylist appointment at their local store. The app’s pre-holiday release may have contributed to Nordstrom’s resounding success in 2024, including a 2.2% visit increase compared to 2023.
And the investments in in-store experiences yielding visit dividends are not limited to premium chains. Dillard's, often considered a mid-range brand, has expert stylists ready to assist, and carefully manages inventory so stores are well-stocked but clutter-free, cultivating a classy retail environment. Dillard’s saw 2.3% YoY visit growth in 2024, indicating that its in-store experience is highly valued by shoppers.
Department stores are uniquely positioned to thrive in the current apparel retail landscape. Faced with demand for lower price points, department stores can harness the opportunity with affordable private-label merchandise or off-price formats. And while value-seeking is on the rise, retailers that provide an elevated shopping experience add a different kind of value to their brand.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
.png)
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
