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Discount and Dollar Stores specialize in bargain discretionary offerings –but their role as go-to destinations for essentials is not to be overlooked. We dove into the data for Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below to find out what drove their success in 2024 and what may lie ahead for the chains in 2025.
In 2024, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below continued to expand their real estate footprints, contributing to the chains’ YoY visit growth.
Since the start of H2 2024, all three chains saw consistent monthly visit increases compared to the previous year, contributing to overall YoY traffic increases of 5.1%, 5.2%, and 12.8% for Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below, respectively. And the visit growth has continued in 2025. (The February 2025 minor visit YoY gap for Dollar General can be attributed to the calendar shift and comparison to a 29-day February in 2024).
As Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below plan to continue investing in their physical footprints in 2025 by adding stores and remodeling existing ones, visits are likely to continue on a growth trajectory.
Diving into the consumer behavior of visitors to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below reveals that at least some of the chains’ visit growth could be due to an increase in repeat visits.
Since Q1 2023, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below’s average visits per visitor have steadily increased compared to the previous year. In other words, the chains’ visitors are visiting more frequently than they did in the past.
This pattern may be driven by consumers’ continued prioritization of value – a trend that doesn’t look to be abating in the near-term.
Discount and dollar stores have long been hailed as treasure hunt destinations for non-necessities, but drilling down to the daily visit date reveals that consumers may be turning to these retailers for more daily essentials.
In 2024, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below’s shares of weekday visits (Monday-Thursday) increased compared to 2023. And Five Below, perhaps best-known for its discretionary offerings in mostly durable goods categories, saw the largest boost in weekday visits of the three chains (from 45.1% in 2023 to 46.4% in 2024). This could be evidence of growing demand in the retailer’s consumable categories like snacks, health, and beauty – essential products that consumers might need to replenish mid-week.
And in part to meet the demand for everyday essentials, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below have expanded product assortments – perhaps positioning themselves for continued weekday visit growth.
Dollar and Discount in 2025
Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below’s success in 2024 was likely driven by a variety of factors including expanding store networks, consumers’ focus on value, and the rising demand for essentials. As these trends are likely to prevail in 2025, discount and dollar chains appear poised to sustain foot traffic growth.
For more data-driven retail insights, Visit Placer.ai.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include government buildings or mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
While headlines trumpeting an imminent return to traditional office life fueled by corporate mandates have become increasingly common in recent months, ground-level data reveals a more complex reality. Office building foot traffic indicates that the office recovery has slowed, with February visits down by 36.3% compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2019. This data suggests that despite top-down pressure and RTO mandates at several major U.S. companies, hybrid and remote work models remain widespread.
Diving into the market-level data reveals that the nationwide average office occupancy metric was driven by relatively significant visit gaps across most analyzed cities, with the exception of New York City and Miami that continued to lead the return to office (RTO) trends, followed by Atlanta. Houston, Washington D.C., and Dallas all experienced year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit gaps of 34.6% to 38.4% – close to the nationwide average – while the Yo5Y office visit gaps for Boston, Los Angeles, and Denver was 43.5%, 45.1%, and 46.6%, respectively.
But one metric did stand out in the February data that could hint at a relatively localized RTO acceleration. For the first time since we started tracking the post-pandemic office recovery, San Francisco (47.5% Yo5Y visit gap) outperformed Chicago (48.5%) – perhaps indicating that RTO mandates in the tech world are beginning to move the needle in the country’s tech capital.
The slowing return to office (RTO) trends also emerge when analyzing the year-over-year (YoY) data. Although some visit gaps were to be expected given the comparison to a 29 day February in 2024, most cities – with the exception of Miami, Boston, and San Francisco – saw a larger dip in office visits than the approximately 3.5% visit gap that could be attributed to the calendar shift.
The dip in office visits compared to 2024 suggests that the RTO mandates are not having a significant impact on office occupancy patterns in most major cities and further underscore the enduring impact of remote and hybrid work models.
The RTO data reveals a complex and evolving landscape shaped by both corporate directives and the enduring preferences of a workforce that has experienced the flexibility and autonomy of remote work. At the same time, disparities between major cities – with New York and Miami in the lead and Chicago and San Francisco lagging behind – highlight the influence of local economic factors, industry concentrations, and perhaps even cultural preferences on office occupancy. As businesses continue to navigate this transition, a deeper understanding of these regional nuances and of the underlying drivers of in-person work will be crucial for companies looking to formulate RTO policies that best serve their broader goals.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai.
This year is expected to present challenges for many restaurant operators, including (1) an uncertain macroeconomic environment; (2) growing encroachment from grocers, warehouse clubs, and convenience stores; and (3) difficulties connecting with consumers as they prioritize both value and convenience. Against this backdrop, Chipotle’s management is forecasting low- to mid-single-digit comparable sales growth for the full year. The company faces tough year-over-year (YoY) comparisons—our data shows a 4.2% increase in visits per location in 2024, placing Chipotle among the top-performing restaurant chains with more than 100 locations. However, despite the uncertain landscape, our data highlights several reasons why Chipotle may surpass this forecast.
Between 2020 and 2024, Chipotle introduced several new protein options that significantly contributed to its growth and customer engagement. In 2021, the launch of Smoked Brisket became a fan favorite, leading to its return in 2024 due to popular demand. The re-introduction of Chicken al Pastor also played a role in boosting visits, significantly lifting visits trends during the second quarter of 2024. These innovative protein additions have not only diversified Chipotle's menu but also resonated with customers, driving sales and enhancing the brand's market presence.
Chipotle introduced Honey Chicken as a limited-time protein option systemwide on March 7th 2025. According to management, Honey Chicken was the brand’s best-performing limited-time offer test, excelling in both early sensory testing and broader market trials. To validate this claim, we examined YoY visitation data for the 55 locations in Sacramento and 25 locations in Nashville where Honey Chicken was tested in the fall of 2024. Launched on August 27th, 2024, our data indicates an immediate boost in visits per location in Sacramento and sustained outperformance in Nashville.
While it’s difficult to extrapolate the success of a limited-time product nationwide based on its performance in a few test markets, our data indicates that Chipotle’s Honey Chicken will likley be among the best performing new product launches in 2025.
In recent years, Chipotle Mexican Grill has experienced notable success by expanding into smaller markets across the United States. This strategic move has led the company to increase its long-term goal from 6,000 to 7,000 North American locations, with many new restaurants opening in towns with populations around 40,000. These small-town locations have demonstrated unit economics comparable to or even surpassing those in larger markets.
Our data shows continued visit outperformance in smaller markets in 2024, with Chipotle locations in non top-25 markets seeing greater visits per location than locations in top 25 markets. And this strategic expansion sets the stage for continued outperformance as store openings in the company’s smaller markets continue to enter the comparable sales base in 2025.
Chipotle's “Chipotlane” format stores—which include a dedicated drive-thru lanes for digital order pickups—has significantly enhanced operational efficiency. According to management, Chipotlane location stores often see transactions completed in less than a minute, which compares favorably to traditional QSR drive-thru times. This swift service has led to a 10%-15% increase in sales at Chipotlane-equipped locations compared to traditional formats. Chipotle now has more than 1,000 Chipotlane locations, with plans to include this feature in the majority of new restaurants, aiming for an annual unit growth of 8% to 10%.
We grouped the first 100 Chipotlane locations with our data to better understand the impact on throughput and operational efficiency. Our data indicates that Chipotlane locations outperformed the chain average by a meaningful amount – especially during peak lunch and dinner hours – adding further support for the company’s potential outperformance in the year ahead.
Overall, while 2025 presents a challenging landscape for the restaurant industry, Chipotle appears well-positioned to navigate these headwinds and potentially exceed its growth expectations. The company’s proven track record of successful menu innovations, along with the promising early results of Honey Chicken, demonstrate its ability to resonate with consumers. Additionally, Chipotle's strategic expansion into smaller markets and the continued rollout of Chipotlane locations are key drivers that could boost visitation and operational efficiency. Despite a difficult macroeconomic environment and increased competition, Chipotle’s combination of menu innovation, market expansion, and enhanced convenience through Chipotlanes sets the stage for continued success in 2025.
Allbirds rose to prominence during the direct-to-consumer (DTC) boom, quickly gaining a loyal following. However, the brand faced challenges in recent years and, in 2024, made a strategic pivot to optimize its store fleet and significantly rightsize its retail footprint. How has this shift impacted foot traffic? We took a closer look.
Allbirds closed almost a third of its U.S. store fleet in the first three quarters of 2024 – downsizing from 45 U.S. stores at the end of 2023 to 31 stores as of September 2024 – leading to expected declines in overall visit numbers. But as the number of Allbirds stores in operation fell, visits per location increased steadily – suggesting that the company is successfully consolidating its physical footprint and funneling visitors to its most successful stores.
While Allbirds has locations in a number of states across the country, its main stronghold remains its home state of California. And diving into the visit data reveals that its rightsizing strategy has paid off handsomely in the state, with YoY visits per location surging by 28.2% in January 2025 compared to 19.8% YoY growth nationwide, suggesting that Allbirds is successfully optimizing its footprint to focus on high-performing markets.
Rightsizing typically allows brands to focus on their best-performing markets – and it looks like Allbirds has succeeded in that regard. Between January 2024 and January 2025, the median household income (HHI) in Allbirds’ captured market rose from $108.5K to $125.6K. Similarly, the share of "Educated Urbanites" and "Ultra-Wealthy Families" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segments increased, indicating that the brand is now catering to a more affluent visitor base that could help it weather economic uncertainties and wider retail challenges.
Allbirds’ strategic repositioning seems to be delivering some of the desired results. By focusing efforts on high-performance locations and the shopper experience, the brand is seeing higher visits per location and a more engaged customer base.
Will Allbirds continue to soar?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Last year was a leap year, so February 2025 had one less day than February 2024 – leading to dips in year-over-year (YoY) monthly comparisons across the board, including in the mall space.
But comparing YoY at average daily visits – a more accurate analysis of YoY performance when comparing a regular year to a leap year – reveals that visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers held relatively stable in February 2025, despite the sharp drop in consumer confidence. And both mall types outperformed the wider retail YoY average – highlighting the ongoing resilience of the retail format.
Meanwhile, outlet malls continued lagging behind both overall retail numbers and the other two mall types. This mall type tends to attract a slightly lower-income visitor base, which could be more susceptible to economic uncertainties – and outlet mall shoppers may have avoided long travels in the cold, preferring to look for discounted items online or in off-price stores closer to home.
Malls’ unique position as both shopping centers and entertainment hubs likely contributed to malls’ stable February visitation patterns amidst the wider consumer headwinds. All three mall types saw significant visit increases on Valentine’s Day (February 14th) along with a rise in the share of evening (7 PM to 10 PM) visits. At the same time, only outlet malls saw a slight increase in the share of shorter visits (under 30 minutes) on Valentine’s Day.
This data suggests that malls played a role in many consumers’ Valentine’s Day celebrations – both in serving as a one-stop shop for gifts and as a centralized place with a variety of dining and entertainment options for the perfect Valentine’s date night.
The steady February foot traffic coupled with strong engagement on key holidays like Valentine’s Day underscores the enduring role of malls as more than just shopping destinations. As we move further into 2025, the ability of malls to adapt and cater to evolving consumer behaviors will remain a critical factor in their continued success.
For more data-driven retail insights visit placer.ai.
The beauty industry’s reign over specialty retail may be slowly coming to an end in 2025. In the post-pandemic retail economy, beauty had been an outlier as it continued to grow visitation despite declines in other discretionary categories and a general pullback in retail demand. Beauty retailers were primed for the interaction of mass and prestige beauty growth; brands at both the low and high end benefited as consumers' appetite for make up and skincare exploded.
But in 2024, consumers began to shift their focus away from beauty and back towards other discretionary categories, such as apparel and home furnishings. At the same time, we’ve also observed more caution amongst consumers surrounding all discretionary demand. Beauty tends to do well during times of economic uncertainty; items are small and generally less expensive than other discretionary purchases like shoes or accessories.
However, the category’s sustained success over the past few years may have run out, even as consumers look for value and small indulgences. Beauty executives warned of these headwinds in early 2024, and Placer’s visit trends have corroborated the softening of trends across the industry.
2024 visits to beauty and self care retail chains grew 1.5% versus the previous year, compared to 18% growth in 2023 and 17% growth in 2022. There was a true shift in momentum of this industry over the last year, and the deceleration of growth is in stark contrast to the industry’s flourishing in the immediate post-pandemic years.
When we put this into the context of broader discretionary retail, the trends in beauty counter those of apparel and home furnishings, who accelerated their rebounds throughout last year. There are a myriad of reasons for these changes in 2024, but major beauty brands have shared a drop-off in demand and waning sales, signs that point to changing consumer behavior instead of a shift in channel preference from physical to digital.
Ulta Beauty had been driving much of the growth of the beauty industry, due to its positioning as a destination for both mass and prestige beauty products. This business model, which served it well over the past few years, also exposed some potential hurdles as demand decelerated in 2024. Ulta’s visit growth in 2024 was just 1.9% year-over-year (2.5% YoY growth for Q4 2024), which surpassed other beauty chains, but slowed dramatically compared to previous trends.
A potential source of Ulta’s visit growth declaration could be one of its greatest opportunities over the past few years; its shop-in-shop partnership with Target. The two chains attract similar consumer demographics and align in their value offerings to shoppers. Looking at Placer’s cross visitation analysis, among visitors to Ulta Beauty, those who also visited Target increased from 86.9% in 2022 to 90.1% in 2024. Ulta visitors may be choosing to visit an Ulta outpost in Target more frequently than in the past, due to the convenience. But, that increase in visits to Target may be cannibalizing visit frequency to standalone Ulta Beauty locations.
Another change to Ulta Beauty’s overall visitation comes from the distribution of visitors to the retail chain. There were declines in the share of visits to Ulta from wealthier, suburban, and younger consumer segments, which account for the largest consumer bases for the retailer. There have been slight increases in the share of visits by Blue Collar Families and diverse shopper segments, but those consumers are likely to be more constrained in purchasing power than Ulta’s core shoppers.
Overall, the beauty space’s journey in 2024 is likely an indicator of what’s to come, especially for the larger chains. One retailer that has been the exception to the rule is Bluemercury, which Placer selected as a 10 Top Brands to Watch in 2025. For the remainder of the industry, retailers must find their reason for consumers to visit, despite a potential decline in demand for the category.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
