.svg)
Brands like M&Ms, Hershey’s, and Jelly Belly are redefining what it means to be as happy as a “kid in a candy store.” With their life-size M&M characters on a flagship in Orlando, FL, a chocolate Statue of Liberty sculpted out of 800 pounds of Hershey’s chocolate on the Las Vegas Strip, or a working jellybean factory tour in Fairfield, CA, manufacturers are literally bringing their brands to life. M&M’s World in Orlando, FL posted particularly impressive year-over-year visits in the second half of 2023.
Recently, Hollywood darling Timothee Chalamet starred in the fantastical movie Wonka, grossing $600M+ worldwide. In other headline news, the “tried to jump on the wagon but failed miserably” fiasco of the unauthorized Willy’s Chocolate Experience in Scotland reveals that the appetite for sweets and chocolate is insatiable. Never fear, if you missed the Candytopia pop-up a few years ago, you can head over to Dylan’s Candy Bar for an experience right out of Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. It’s clear that demand peaks in the summer, probably due to locations that see summer tourists. The holidays are another popular season for buying sweets.
At Hershey’s Chocolate World, one can be immersed in all-things chocolate, from creating your own candy to taking a selfie with a life-size Reese’s peanut butter cup. The dessert options are limited only by your imagination. That tower of S’mores sure looks tempting!
Many visitors also opt to visit the Hershey Story Museum or stay at Hershey Lodge or the Hotel Hershey.
If you prefer your sweets in liquid form, there are three Coca-Cola Stores--in Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Orlando--to satisfy your cravings. Here, you can buy a Coke plushie, flout the famous “Enjoy Coca-Cola” slogan shirt in a variety of languages, or dress yourself head-to-toe in comfy Coke PJs. One of the coolest options is an international tasting flight that lets you try out Coca-Cola beverages from around the world, with flavors like sparberry from Zimbabwe.
At the Coca-Cola Store in Orlando, FL, visitation jumps during vacations like Spring Break, summer, and Christmas holidays.
Another beloved brand that has made its way into brick-and-mortar is King’s Hawaiian. Founded in 1950, they were famous for their round loaves of sweet and fluffy Hawaiian bread. Fast forward three-quarters of a century later, and they have added new options like savory dinner rolls or pull-apart pans of bread. One can experience gastronomic delights made with Hawaiian bread at their Torrance-based King’s Hawaiian Bakery and Restaurant.
The restaurant menu includes breakfasts featuring their famous King’s Hawaiian Sweet Bread as French toast, lunch and dinner options like Macadamia Nut Onion Rings, Chicken Katsu Curry Loco Moco, and Saimin noodles, but it’s the bakery that literally takes the cake. The Paradise Delight Cake has three layers of chiffon cake in enticing flavors like guava, passionfruit, and lime. It is then topped with layers of fresh strawberries, peaches, and kiwis. One can also choose from chocolate, coconut, pineapple, raspberry cakes, and more.
With Placer's ranking of "Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, and Dessert Shops" indicating that King's is in the top 1% nationwide and statewide, it looks like they've found a sweet recipe for success.
The Waldorf Astoria and Ritz-Carlton hotels are two of the most recognizable names in luxury lodging. Both opened in New York City – the Waldorf Astoria in 1893 and the Ritz-Carlton in 1911 – and are owned by two major hotel corporations: the Waldorf Astoria is part the Hilton Hotels & Resorts portfolio of brands, while the Ritz-Carlton is part of Marriott International, Inc’s portfolio.
Who is most likely to visit each brand? What are the similarities – and differences – between the two hotels’ guest segmentations? We take a closer look at the demographic and psychographic data to find out.
Analyzing the demographic makeup of the Waldorf Astoria and Ritz-Carlton’s trade areas by layering the STI: Popstats dataset onto captured market trade areas revealed that the Waldorf Astoria’s trade area has a higher share of households with children compared to that of the Ritz-Carlton (25.6% compared to 23.6%). But both chains had a smaller share of households with children in their trade areas relative to the nationwide average (27.6%). It seems, then, that singles or empty nesters may be more likely to book a luxury getaway than consumers with heavier parenting responsibilities.
Unsurprisingly, the chains also attract a particularly high-income clientele: The median household income (HHI) in both brands’ trade areas is over 50% higher than the nationwide median ($108.4K and $104.5K for the trade areas of the Waldorf Astoria and Ritz Carlton, respectively, compared to a nationwide median of $69.5K). The data also showed that Waldorf Astoria’s trade area is slightly more affluent than that of the Ritz-Carlton – perhaps due in part to the Ritz-Carlton’s recent attempts to court younger guests.
.avif)
Leveraging the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to explore the psychographic composition of the hotel chains’ trade area further supports the distinctions between the brands highlighted in the demographic analysis.
The psychographic analysis showed that the Waldorf Astoria had more family segments in its trade area than the Ritz-Carlton, while the Ritz-Carlton catered to more single and empty-nester households – as expected given the demographic composition of the chains’ trade areas.
.avif)
Luxury hotels are known for their impeccable service – and to curate the ideal guest experience, these brands need to accurately predict their visitors' dining and leisure preferences. Hoteliers can leverage the Placer.ai Marketplace and combine trade area data with various datasets – including data on consumers’ social media activity with tools like the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset – to pinpoint their guests’ tastes and preferences.
Analyzing the preferences for certain types of foods or entertainment within the hotel chains’ trade areas revealed – once again – similarities and differences between the brands. Both chains’ trade areas included larger shares of “Farm-to-Table Cooking Enthusiasts”, “Asian Food Enthusiasts”, and “Craft Coffee At-Home Enthusiasts,” as well as more “Opera Lovers” and “Salsa Music Fans” than the nationwide average. But the foodie segments were slightly more over-indexed within the Waldorf’s trade area, while residents of the Ritz-Carlton’s trade area seemed a little more keen on Opera and Salsa. These hotel chains can leverage this data to determine the type of dining or entertainment options that will set these brands apart from the competition and best attract their specific audience.
.avif)
The Waldorf Astoria and Ritz-Carlton continue to define luxury lodging in the country while attracting some of the nation's most discerning guests. Understanding the demographic and psychographic guest segmentation of each chain can help inform your loyalty strategy.
For more data-driven travel & leisure insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
St. Patrick’s Day, which falls each year on March 17th, is a day for bar crawls, green makeup, and drinks with friends. Cities like New York and Chicago host major celebrations, drawing big crowds to their downtown areas. And bars and pubs fill up with revelers eager to mark the occasion with a green cocktail or a taste of corned beef and cabbage.
There’s plenty of joy to go around – and towns across the country are getting in on the St. Paddy’s Day action with parades and family-friendly events. What kind of a lift do traditional St. Patrick’s Day destinations like bars and pubs get on the big day? And what other retail categories stand to benefit from the occasion?
Unsurprisingly, bars and pubs get major boosts on the week of St. Patrick’s Day, as club hoppers and other celebrants converge on their local watering holes for drinks and fun. Chains like The Brass Tap and Bar Louie offer special deals and parties, with everything from green beer to Irish whiskey. And on the week of March 11th, 2024, visits to the two chains were up 15.7% and 21.1%, respectively, compared to an early October baseline – slightly outpacing even the busy Christmas season.
.avif)
But St. Patrick’s Day isn’t just for bar crawling. And although the festivities are usually associated with major metropolises like New York City and Chicago, cities like Myrtle Beach, SC, San Antonio, TX. Indianapolis, IN, and Savannah, GA also come to life mid-March with parades and parties rivaling those of their bigger counterparts.
On Saturday, March 16th 2024 at 11:00 A.M., San Antonio, TX kicked off its annual St. Patrick’s Day festivities with the traditional dyeing of the San Antonio River. Throughout the weekend, parades and celebrations drew crowds to the city’s famed River Walk – and while bars and clubs undoubtedly benefited from the excitement, they weren’t the only ones to do so. San Antonio’s Shops at Rivercenter enjoyed its busiest day since 2019, drawing 61.4% more foot traffic on March 16th than on an average Saturday this year.
Savannah, GA, North Myrtle Beach, SC, and Indianapolis, IN also hosted big St. Patrick’s Day events, bringing foot traffic – and business – to local retailers. For Savannah, March 16th, 2024 marked the 200th anniversary of the city’s famous St. Patrick’s Day Parade, and the town was positively booming. City Market, the iconic shopping corridor located in the heart of Savannah’s Historic District, was the most crowded it’s been since at least January 2023, with March 17th 2023 (the day of last year’s parade) coming in a close second.
Malls and shopping districts weren’t the only places to get significant leprechaun-inspired visit bumps. Grocery stores, pharmacies, and eateries located in proximity to the festivities also reaped the benefits of the hubbub, as parade-goers likely dropped in to snag some essentials or fuel up for the long day.
And it isn’t just locals turning out for all these events. A look at hotel foot traffic patterns nationwide shows that the week of St. Patrick’s Day kicks off the hospitality industry’s spring season – with cities hosting special events seeing even more significant visit spikes. During the week of March 11th, 2024, hotel venues in the analyzed cities drew many more visits than usual, showcasing the power of St. Paddy’s Day to supercharge the tourism sector.
.png)
St. Patrick’s Day is about a lot more than bars and pubs. And in recent years, the popular green-themed holiday has emerged as an important driver of tourism and retail activity across the U.S.
What other local celebrations are fueling foot traffic spikes in cities nationwide? Does your city know the impact of location celebrations on local businesses? Are local businesses prepared for the increase in foot traffic and revenue opportunities during local celebrations?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven civic and retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
JOANN recently announced that it had filed for bankruptcy, and the company expects to go private as early as next month. Can the retailer still make a comeback? We dove into the data to find out.
JOANN went public in March 2021 – at the height of the pandemic – following a particularly strong 2020. The COVID-era crafting boom had put the company on a growth trajectory, with visits during the first year of the pandemic barely lower than in 2019 despite the lockdowns and movement restrictions. But as the country reopened and people’s schedules filled back up – leaving less time for sewing and knitting – visits began to fall. Foot traffic in 2021 was lower than in 2020, and by 2022, overall visits to the chain were 11.8% lower than they had been in 2019
But now, recent foot traffic data indicates that demand for fabric-related crafting supplies may be rebounding. In 2023, visits to the chain grew relative to 2022 and the visit gap relative to 2019 narrowed. Sewing appears to be making a comeback, with both millennials and Gen-Z exhibiting a newfound interest in the craft. And although the resurgence of interest in fiber arts was not strong enough to prevent JOANN’s recent bankruptcy filing, the YoY visit growth in 2023 indicates that the company should not be written off just yet.
.png)
According to C.F.O. Scott Sekella, 95% of JOANN’s stores are cash-flow positive. The company is also committed to maintaining usual operations during the court-supervised procedure. And this year as well – especially since the end of early 2024’s cold spell – JOANN’s year-over-year (YoY) visits have trended positive, even outperforming YoY foot traffic to other leading crafting retailers.
%20(1).png)
The unique nature of JOANN’s products give the company’s brick-and-mortar stores an advantage over digital counterparts: Crafters like to get a feel for the material before purchasing, and amateur DIY-ers who visit physical stores can consult with expert salespeople to receive guidance for ongoing projects. And although foot traffic to JOANN’s stores is not what it was at the height of the pandemic, the YoY visit growth in 2023 indicates that the brand is still serving many committed sewers and knitters who are choosing to shop in-person. So how can JOANN maintain its store fleet while optimizing in-store operations?
Analyzing the change in hourly visits between 2022 and 2023 reveals that the YoY growth is not evenly distributed across dayparts. Morning and early afternoon visits saw modest increases, but traffic growth really ramped up in the afternoon and evening – peaking between 6:00 and 6:59 PM – and visits actually decreased between 7:00 and 8:59 PM. Should the company try to streamline its logistics without sacrificing its large store fleet, JOANN may focus its staffing and operational costs on the dayparts with the most growth potential and reduce expenditure during the less popular timeslots.
.png)
Despite the crafting retailer’s current rough patch, location intelligence suggests that the company is a strong contender for a post-bankruptcy comeback. And the positive YoY trends also indicate that – despite the ongoing headwinds and contraction in discretionary spending – there is still demand for hobby-driven retail in 2024.
How will the bankruptcy proceedings impact foot traffic to JOANN? What does the rest of 2024 hold for the brand?
Check in with our blog at placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
With rumors swirling of a potential Panera Bread IPO in 2024, we dove into the data to find out how the St. Louis, Missouri-based company is performing – and what sets Panera apart from its competition.
Panera Bread has been on a growth spurt recently, with monthly visits over the past 12 months consistently exceeding 2022/2023 levels. Part of the traffic increase may be due to the brand’s larger store fleet – Panera expanded into urban and non-traditional markets with small-format locations focused on pick-up and digital ordering. And the company is not resting on its laurels, with Panera revamping its menu to compete more directly with meal-focussed fast casual concepts.
.png)
Because Panera straddles the line of coffee QSR and fast-casual lunch spot, there is no one dining chain that directly competes with Panera on all fronts. Instead, Panera plays a unique role in the QSR/fast casual landscape: The chain has a strong café feel, with the company’s “Sip Club” membership program seems specifically designed to appeal to customers looking for frequent coffee fixes. But Panera also offers more substantial fare, and the upcoming menu overhaul promises to add even more hearty salads and affordable sandwiches to its array of options.
The new menu may be aimed towards attracting more budget-conscious diners thanks to a focus on larger portions and the addition of several items priced at under $10. Some speculate that the changes are also part of the company’s broader refocusing towards the lunchtime daypart. Comparing Panera to Starbucks, which competes with Panera on the coffee shop and affordable foods front, and to Sweetgreen, a strong presence in the fast-casual lunch market, can shed light on Panera’s role within the increasingly competitive dining landscape.
Panera’s hourly visitation pattern highlights its unique place within the wider QSR-fast casual landscape. Like Sweetgreen, Panera experiences a lunchtime foot traffic rush – 30.8% of daily visits to the chain take place between 12 PM and 2 PM. But Panera also receives almost a third of its visits before noon – 30.2% of visits to the chain take between 6 AM and 11 AM, compared to just 13.2% of visits to Sweetgreen. Between 9 AM and 11 AM, Panera’s hourly visit share of 20.8% is almost on par with Starbucks’ 25.3%. (The small number of morning Sweetgreen visits is likely also driven by a difference in opening hours, with most Sweetgreen locations only opening at around 10:30 AM).
Meanwhile, Panera also seems to be a strong dinner contender. Although Panera’s evening performance may not be quite as strong as Sweetgreen’s, the St. Louis-based dining chain still sees 17.3% of its daily visits between 6 PM and 8 PM – almost double Starbucks’ 9.8.%.
These hourly visitation patterns indicate that while a significant contingent of Panera patrons treat the chain as their go-to coffee shop, many others tend to consider Panera as a lunch or early dinner destination.
.avif)
Although analyzing hourly visitation patterns highlight similarities between Panera and Sweetgreen, focusing on the three chains’ visitor bases reveals many more similarities between Starbucks and Panera.
The median HHIs in Panera and Starbucks’ trade areas stand at $79.2K/year and $76.4K/year, respectively. Around 34% of both chains’ trade areas consist of non-family and one-person households and 28% consist of households with children. Meanwhile, Sweetgreen tends to attract a much larger share of affluent singles – 42.9% of households in Sweetgreen’s trade area are non-family and one person households, and the salad and grain-bowl focused chain has a trade area median HHI stands at $102K/year.
It seems, then, that although Panera appears to compete with Sweetgreen for the lunch rush – and to a lesser extent, for dinner visits as well – the two brands’ audience bases are substantially different. On the other hand, Panera’s visitor base seems to overlap significantly with that of Starbucks – which may explain Panera’s move towards enhanced portion sizes and affordable meal options, which may set it even further apart from the Seattle-based coffee giant.
.png)
Panera Bread is one of 2024’s most anticipated IPOs – and location intelligence metrics suggest that the buzz is well substantiated.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Nowruz took place on March 20 this year, and this celebration of the spring equinox dates back over three thousand years. Westwood Blvd, just south of UCLA, is home to a profusion of Persian restaurants, markets, bookstores, and ice-cream stores with flavors not found in your typical Baskin-Robbins. Hence, the affectionate moniker Tehrangeles for this little pocket where an Iranian diaspora has settled.
Restaurants like Shamshiri Grill, with its juicy beef koobideh kebab broiled to perfection and tomatoes that burst in your mouth, proves to be a hit with a wide cross-section of Angelenos. For dessert, be sure to stop at nearby Saffron & Rose for their namesake flavors or Mashti Malone’s for a uniquely Persian faloodeh shirazi, similar to a rosewater sorbet, topped with cherry sauce and rice starch vermicelli.
There are also numerous Persian markets in the area should you want to buy groceries and try cooking yourself. Jordan Market, Tehran Market, and Star Market all see over half their clientele come from the segment of Educated Urbanites.
If you’d like to simultaneously celebrate Women’s History Month and buy yourself a little something for the New Year, then look no further than Cult Gaia, just a short drive away in West Hollywood. Founded by Jasmin Larian Hekmat in 2012, its Ark bag reached cult status within just a few years. Oozing a vacation-ready vibe and cool-girl aesthetic, the LA-based designer has most recently opened up a new store on the ritzy island of St. Barths. While the majority of visits to the West Hollywood store come from metro LA, there are still quite a few fans coming from further afield to shop.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
