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Summer is a time when many consumers are on the go – and vacationers moving between activities look to quick-service restaurants (QSR) and fast-casual chains to fill up and beat the heat.
We checked in with McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Wingstop, and Shake Shack to see how they are performing heading into the summer, and examined location analytics for McDonald’s latest concept – CosMc’s – to uncover emerging visitation trends for the new chain.
Popular wing and burger destinations Wingstop and Shake Shack are thriving this summer, as both chains double down on expansion plans. Shake Shack is on track to add dozens of new locations to its 300+ domestic shacks in 2024, and Wingstop’s hundreds of newly added locations bring its U.S. restaurant count to nearly 2000 venues.
These aggressive expansion strategies are playing a significant role in the chains’ respective visit growth. In June 2024, Wingstop’s visits were up 34.2% YoY, while Shake Shack’s were up 28.1%.
As the chains expand their footprints, both are taking steps to increase store efficiency and improve service. Wingstop recently adopted a new in-house transaction software, while Shack Shack continues to streamline the kiosk ordering experience.
The experience at many eateries continues to change – as do the prices diners see on their menus. During the first months of 2024, inflation drove price increases across the QSR space. And as consumers took note of the higher prices, “the summer of value wars” got underway – with a long list of chains, including fast-food giants McDonald’s and Wendy’s, introducing low-cost meals and menus to reel in inflation-wary diners.
Despite price hikes felt by consumers, in Q2 2024, McDonald’s visits grew by 0.4% YoY and Wendy’s grew by 1.4%. And the late-June launch of McDonald’s and Wendy’s new limited-time $5 bundles – which are already making their impact felt on the ground – may drive further foot traffic growth for the two chains throughout the summer.
While many fast-food diners are looking for value this summer, they’re also proving eager to try new culinary experiences. McDonald’s spin-off restaurant CosMc’s landed in late 2023, with throngs of eager diners lining up for a taste of the unique concept. Since the first location opened in Bolingbrook, IL, several new CosMc’s have emerged to heavy fanfare, including one in Watauga, TX and another in Dallas.
And although CosMc’s is still in its infancy, location analytics shows that the concept already drives traffic from more affluent consumers than the traditional McDonald’s chain.
In June 2024, for example, the median household income (HHI) in the captured market of the Bolingbrook, IL CosMc’s was $97.0K – significantly higher than that of McDonald’s in the Chicago metro area ($75.5K) or of McDonald’s nationwide ($65K).
A similar trend could be observed in the Dallas-Ft. Worth-Arlington CBSA – where the captured markets of local CosMc’s featured significantly higher median HHIs than those of McDonald’s.
As a beverage-led concept, CosMc’s may drive more traffic from higher-income consumers than a traditional McDonald’s – where simple soft drinks typically come as an inexpensive meal add-on. And as a result, the chain may help McDonald’s bring a new consumer cohort into the fold.
Summer 2024 is undoubtedly shaping up to be the “Summer of Value” and perhaps the “Summer of Fast Food” as well. Will favorable trends continue in the months ahead?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
The fast-casual space has been having a moment – with rising QSR prices leading many diners to embrace an upgraded experience. So with Q2 2024 in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with two fast-casual restaurant chains that have been doing particularly well: Chipotle and sweetgreen. How did their Q2 performance compare to that of the wider fast-casual segment? And what is it, exactly, that they are doing right?
We dove into the data to find out.
In the first quarter of 2024, Chipotle reported a 14.1% YoY increase in total revenue, and a 7.0% increase in comparable restaurant sales. And the chain isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. In Q2 2024, Chipotle saw YoY chain-wide foot traffic growth of 16.9%. And while some of this increase was undoubtedly due to the chain’s continued expansion – Chipotle added some 247 U.S. restaurants over the past year – the average number of visits to each of Chipotle’s restaurants also increased by an impressive 9.5%. By way of comparison, fast-casual restaurants experienced average quarterly YoY visit growth of just 4.2%, and visit-per-location growth of 2.9%.
One factor that appears to be contributing to Chipotle’s remarkable visit growth is its repeat customer base – which is growing more loyal with every passing year. Between Q2 2019 and Q2 2024, the share of visitors frequenting a Chipotle at least twice a month increased from 22.8% to 29.6%, while the share of visitors frequenting a Chipotle at least three times a month grew from 7.9% to 12.1%.
This rise in loyalty has taken place against the backdrop of Chipotle’s growing loyalty program – Chipotle Rewards – which launched in Q1 2019 and today boasts more than 40 million members. The program, which lets members earn points for every dollar spent, offers diners access to personalized deals and a range of special promotions – like free delivery on National Burrito Day. (Before you ask, foot traffic data shows that National Burrito Day, which fell on Thursday, April 4th, 2024 wasn’t just a day for ordering online: It was Chipotle’s busiest Thursday of the year so far, with visits up 19.7% compared to a regular Thursday). This April, Chipotle also partnered with Tekken 8 to offer diners in-game currency in exchange for orders – with special perks for Rewards members.
Another eatery that has been performing remarkably well in 2024 is sweetgreen – the fast-casual restaurant known for its healthy, fresh food. During Q2 2024, visits to sweetgreen were up a remarkable 19.9% YoY, a reflection of the chain’s growing footprint. But foot traffic data shows that there is more than enough demand to sustain sweetgreen’s accelerated expansion – over the analyzed period, the average number of visits to each sweetgreen location also increased by 5.9%.
A look at the hourly distribution of visits to sweetgreen shows that though the chain has made inroads into the dinner daypart, lunchtime remains its prime time to shine – especially on weekdays.
During the first half of 2024, 24.9% of weekday visits to sweetgreen took place between noon and 2:00 PM – compared to just 21.7% for the wider fast-casual category. But while sweetgreen, popular among the in-office crowd, drew a greater share of lunchtime visitors on weekdays, the fast-casual segment as a whole drew a greater share of lunchtime visitors on the weekends. Indeed, on Saturdays and Sundays, the share of lunchtime sweetgreen visitors dropped to 22.7%, while the share of fast-casual lunchtime visitors increased to 22.2%.
Still, suppertime is also a popular daypart for the salad chain on weekdays – with 20.0% of Monday - Friday visits taking place between 6:00 and 8:00 PM. As sweetgreen continues to lean into steaks and other dinner fare, it will be interesting to see if the restaurant begins to capture even more evening traffic.
Chipotle’s and sweetgreen’s strong quarter positions them well for further growth as the year wears on. Will Chipotle’s loyalty continue to increase? And will sweetgreen double down on dinner?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out.
Millennials everywhere, rejoice, because a beloved brand is back, for the next generation. Limited Too, an apparel staple for girls growing up in the 1990’s and 2000’s, has found its way back to the retail stage after years of dormancy. The brand began teasing its return a month ago, but last week brought the announcement that Limited Too’s relaunch will take place via a new apparel line at Kohl’s. With the Fourth of July over and Amazon Prime Day complete, the back-to-school season is officially upon us, even if it still feels like summer. In Kohl’s press release on Friday, the Limited Too introduction is a part of its larger back-to-school efforts, and it appears to be aimed at expanding apparel offerings for girls. And, with Kohl’s recent and upcoming additions like Sephora, Babies”R”Us, and now Limited Too, the target is clearly to woo and excite the Millennial shopper.
The relaunch of Limited Too includes fashion for girls size 7-16, the same Tween demographic that the brand originally captured. Mall-based Limited Too shut its doors in 2008, and the majority of stores were converted into rival retailer, Justice, who shuttered all of its stores in 2020. The brand revival is likely positioned by Kohl’s to appeal to parents who grew up with an affinity for the brand who can now purchase for their children.
With the relaunch, how well situated is Kohl’s to attract this ideal “Limited Too Loyalist”? We took a look at a sampling of former Justice stores prior to closing, from 2018 to January 2020, and compared the audience profile of Justice visitors to Kohl’s visitors using Spatial.ai PersonaLive, both during the same time period as well as in 2024.
Our data highlights that both retailers actually have a similar audience profile of visitors, and that Kohl’s has continued to grow its percentage of Upper Suburban Diverse Families and Wealthy Suburban Families to more closely align with the former Justice demographics. Since the pandemic and through its new partnerships and planned additions, Kohl’s has been able to capture wealthier suburban families, and as Millennials continue to migrate out of urban centers, the retailer may have set itself up well to welcome these shoppers.
The tween apparel market today is highly fragmented, as is true with most areas of discretionary retail, with shoppers having access to countless brands and channels to choose from. Mass merchants, fast fashion, and athleisure brands are all vying for the attention of tweens, who are in turn influencing the retail decisions of their parents. A few months ago, we wrote about Brandy Melville, a somewhat controversial retailer that is still hugely popular with tweens. The retailer has the cool and elusive styling that young shoppers crave, and continues to be a strong traffic performer so far in 2024 (below). We’ve also written about the renaissance of Abercrombie & Fitch, another 2000’s brand with a strong connection to Millennials that has been able to recapture visitors’ attention, and still operates the Abercrombie Kids brand aimed at the same size range as the newly launched Limited Too.
Kohl’s new bet for the back-to-school season hangs on appealing to nostalgic Millennial parents, a group that quickly is becoming a target for many retailer strategies. We wrote last week about the rise of younger visitors to warehouse clubs, and the importance of younger shoppers to growing the member base. In a competitive and value-oriented retail environment, appealing to this group and gaining their loyalty in visits is critical to long-term success. It will be interesting to see if the Millennial love for Limited Too still remains, even after all these years.
Another year, another acquisition for casual-dining restaurant leader Darden Restaurants. Following up last year’s acquisition of Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, Darden plans to acquire Chuy's for $605M (representing 10.3x Chuy’s trailing-twelve-month adjusted EBITDA of $59, or 8.2x adjusting for run-rate G&A costs that can be eliminated by adding Chuy’s to the Darden portfolio). Chuy’s is among the leading players in the Mexican casual-dining space in terms of revenue ($451M in revenue during 2023, adjusting for the extra week in the reporting calendar), average revenue per unit ($4.5M), and restaurant-level EBITDA (20%).
The acquisition of Chuy’s makes sense to us on a number of levels. First, and most obviously, Chuy’s fills a gap in the Darden portfolio. The company already owns the top player among casual-dining Italian chains (Olive Garden) and the number-two player in casual-dining steakhouses in addition to its other casual-dining (Cheddar’s, Yard House, Bahama Breeze) and fine-dining (Ruth’s Chris, The Capital Grille, Eddie V's, Seasons 52) concepts. By adding a casual-dining Mexican concept to its portfolio, we believe there will be an opportunity to attract incremental visitors. Below, we’ve presented cross visitation for Darden’s casual-dining brands and Chuy’s in 2023, and we see minimal overlap (although the cross-visit data is admittedly impacted by chain size and geography). According to our data, only 4%-5% of visitors to Darden’s existing restaurants also visited a Chuy’s location in 2023 (with the exception of Cheddar’s, which saw a 12.9% cross-visitation percentage).
Second, despite Chuy’s being the leading player in the Mexican casual dining space, it’s still a relatively fragmented category that is ripe for consolidation. Below, we show the share of visitation data for Chuy’s compared to almost 20 other full-service Mexican restaurant chains from 2017-2023. Despite Chuy’s growth, its share of visits relative to the rest of the category has remained relatively healthy in the 12%-15% range. Backed by Darden’s purchasing, advertising, and real estate scale advantages, we see a meaningful opportunity to consolidate share of visits going forward, including visit per location improvement.
Chuy’s has been one of the leaders in the Mexican casual-dining chains in terms of visitation growth this year, outpacing monthly visits for the category by 5% on average (below). While integration will take time, applying guest experience, menu innovation, pricing, and marketing best practices from Darden should help to maintain this leadership.
At 101 company-owned restaurants today, Chuy’s is comparable to several other brands in the Darden portfolio (including Yard House at 88 units and Ruth’s Chris at 79). The chain is well established in Texas (44 company-owned units) but has a relatively small presence in other states across the Southeast and Midwest (below).
As Darden and Chuy’s management pointed out in a conference call to discuss the transaction, there are significant opportunities in both existing and new markets. Placer’s Site Selection tool (which identifies the characteristics of Chuy’s top locations–including trade area populations, demographic fit, cannibalization risk, and competition density–and finds markets/sites with similar characteristics) sees the best fits for expansion in several West, Midwest, and Northeast markets.
The first half of 2024 is proving to be more heavily visited for all types of shopping centers. June in particular is stronger than it was last year. After some January doldrums, where all shopping traffic was lower than the prior year due to weather, February began to pick up and March was particularly strong comparatively for outlet malls compared to last year. April saw a general downtick for more discretionary shopping, but May and June are looking strong so far.
The top 5 outlet malls by traffic during the last week of June were Arundel Mills, Ontario Mills, Sawgrass Mills, Legends Outlets Kansas City, and The Outlets at Orange. Among indoor malls, shoppers flocked to Mall of America, Roosevelt Field, Westfield Valley Fair, Del Amo Fashion Center, and Westfield Southcenter. Weather is always a consideration in the summer months, but as shopping centers have become increasingly sophisticated about strategically placed shade or places to take a break, it can be quite refreshing to visit an open-air lifestyle center. Tops in the nation for traffic include Ala Moana Center, Pier Park, Easton Town Center, Irvine Spectrum Center, and Victoria Gardens. As for high street retail corridors, no one can match the Big Apple. Three of the top five high streets were here, including Times Square and 42nd St at #1, SoHo at #3, and 5th Ave at #4. In second place was Michigan Ave in Chicago and in fifth place was Beverly Hills.
Against the backdrop of what remains a challenging time for full-service restaurants (FSRs), we dove into the data to check in with three of America’s leading FSR chains – First Watch, Texas Roadhouse, and Applebee’s. How did they fare in Q2 2024? And what lies in store for them in the months ahead?
First Watch has emerged as a rising star in recent years, rapidly expanding its footprint while at the same time taking pains to preserve the feel of a small, local eatery. The restaurant is nimble on its feet – growing its audience through a strategy centered on continual menu innovation and special seasonal offerings.
In the past year alone, First Watch added dozens of new locations to its fleet. And foot traffic data shows that the chain’s aggressive growth strategy is meeting robust demand. In Q2 2024, YoY visits to First Watch grew by 16.0%, far outperforming FSR and diner & breakfast chain averages. And perhaps more importantly, the average number of visits to each individual First Watch restaurant rose 5.8% over the same period.
Texas Roadhouse is another chain that has been crushing it in 2024 – and not just on Father’s Day. Over the past year, the popular steakhouse opened some 30 new U.S. locations, and plans to continue expanding this year.
And foot traffic data shows that Texas Roadhouse’s high-quality, affordable offerings are resonating with consumers. Despite inflation-driven price hikes, YoY visits to the chain have continued to grow. And though some of this increase is due to the restaurant’s expansion, the average number of visits per location has also been on the rise: Between January and June 2024, Texas Roadhouse experienced near-consistent YoY visit and visit-per-location growth. Only in January and in April did visits per location falter, likely due to January’s inclement weather and an April Easter calendar shift.
On a quarterly basis, too, foot traffic to Texas Roadhouse increased 6.2% in Q2 2024 – significantly outpacing averages for both steakhouses (2.6%) and full-service restaurants (1.2%).
Like many full-service restaurants, Dine Brands’ Applebee’s has faced its share of headwinds in recent years. Over the past 12 months, Applebee’s shuttered at least 30 locations, contributing to a drop in the chain’s overall foot traffic. But analyzing changes in the average number of visits to each Applebee’s restaurant shows that the closures may actually be helping to put Applebee’s back on a firmer footing.
In Q2 2023, visits to Applebee’s nationwide declined 3.7% YoY, while the average number of visits per location dropped 2.7%. Since then, the chain’s YoY visit gap has narrowed – while the average number of visits per location has begun to increase. And in Q2 2024, Applebee’s closed its overall YoY visit gap and grew its visits per location by 2.3%. Though the chain has yet to return to positive unit growth, the rightsizing of its fleet appears to be bolstering Applebee’s remaining stores – positioning it for long-term success.
Full-service restaurants have had a tough time in recent years, and concerns that consumer spending may moderate as the year wears on continue to weigh on the industry. Still, foot traffic data suggests that consumers are once again visiting restaurants – fueling expansion for First Watch and Texas Roadhouse, and helping shore up Applebee’s long-term prospects.
What does the rest of 2024 have in store for restaurant chains?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
1. Market Divergence: While San Francisco's return-to-office trends have stabilized, Los Angeles is increasingly lagging behind national averages with office visits down 46.6% compared to pre-pandemic levels as of June 2025.
2. Commuter Pattern Shifts: Los Angeles faces a persistent decline in out-of-market commuters while San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters has recovered slightly, indicating deeper structural challenges in LA's office market recovery.
3. Visit vs. Visitor Gap: Unlike other markets where increased visits per worker offset declining visitor numbers, Los Angeles saw both metrics decline year-over-year, suggesting fundamental workforce retention issues.
4. Century City Exception: Century City emerges as LA's strongest office submarket with visits only 28.1% below pre-pandemic levels, driven by its premium amenities and strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center.
5. Demographic Advantage: Century City's success may stem from its success in attracting affluent, educated young professionals who value lifestyle integration and are more likely to maintain consistent office attendance in hybrid work arrangements.
While return-to-office trends have stabilized in many markets nationwide, Los Angeles and San Francisco face unique challenges that set them apart from national patterns. This report examines the divergent trajectories of these two major West Coast markets, with particular focus on Los Angeles' ongoing struggles and the emergence of one specific submarket that bucks broader trends.
Through analysis of commuter patterns, demographic shifts, and localized performance data, we explore how factors ranging from out-of-market workforce changes to amenity-driven location advantages are reshaping the competitive landscape for office real estate in Southern California.
Both Los Angeles and San Francisco continue to significantly underperform the national office occupancy average. In June 2025, average nationwide visits to office buildings were 30.5% below January 2019 levels, compared to a 46.6% and 46.4% decline in visits to Los Angeles and San Francisco offices, respectively.
While both cities now show similar RTO rates, they arrived there through different trajectories. San Francisco has consistently lagged behind national return-to-office levels since pandemic restrictions first lifted.
Los Angeles, however, initially mirrored nationwide trends before its office market began diverging and falling behind around mid-2022.
The decline in office visits in Los Angeles and San Francisco can be partly attributed to fewer out-of-market commuters. Both cities saw significant drops in the percentage of employees who live outside the city but commute to work between H1 2019 and H1 2023.
However, here too, the two cities diverged in recent years: San Francisco's share of out-of-market commuters relative to local employees rebounded between 2023 and 2024, while Los Angeles' continued to decline – another indication that LA's RTO is decelerating as San Francisco stabilizes.
Like in other markets, Los Angeles saw a larger drop in office visits than in office visitors when comparing current trends to pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with the shift to hybrid work arrangements, where many of the workers who returned to the office are coming in less frequently than before the pandemic, leading to a larger drop in visits compared to the drop in visitors.
But looking at the trajectory of RTO more recently shows that in most markets – including San Francisco – office visits are up year-over-year (YoY) while visitor numbers are down. This suggests that the workers slated to return to the office have already done so, and increasing the numbers of visits per visitor is now the path towards increased office occupancy.
In Los Angeles, visits also outperformed visitors – but both figures were down YoY (the gap in visits was smaller than the gap in visitors). So while the visitors who did head to the office in LA in Q2 2025 clocked in more visits per person compared to Q2 2024, the increase in visits per visitor was not enough to offset the decline in office visitors.
While Los Angeles may be lagging in terms of its overall office recovery, the city does have pockets of strength – most notably Century City. In Q2 2025, the number of inbound commuters visiting the neighborhood was just 24.7% lower than it was in Q2 2019 and higher (+1.0%) than last year's levels.
According to Colliers' Q2 2025 report, Century City accounts for 27% of year-to-date leasing activity in West Los Angeles – more than double any other submarket – and commands the highest asking rental rates. The area benefits from Trophy and Class A office towers that may create a flight-to-quality dynamic where tenants migrate from urban core locations to this Westside submarket.
The submarket's success is likely bolstered by its strategic location adjacent to Westfield Century City shopping center – visit data reveals that 45% of weekday commuters to Century City also visited Westfield Century City during Q2 2025. The convenience of accessing the mall's extensive retail, dining, and entertainment options during lunch breaks or after work may encourage employees to come into the office more frequently.
Perhaps thanks to its strategic locations and amenities-rich office buildings, Century City succeeds in attracting relatively affluent office workers.
Century City's office submarket has a higher median trade area household income (HHI) than either mid-Wilshire or Downtown LA. The neighborhood also attracts significant shares of the "Educated Urbanite" Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment – defined as "well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs".
This demographic typically has fewer family obligations and greater flexibility in their work arrangements, making them more likely to embrace hybrid schedules that include regular office attendance. Affluent singles also tend to value the lifestyle amenities and networking opportunities that come with working in a premium office environment like Century City: This demographic is often in career-building phases where in-person collaboration and visibility matter more, driving consistent office utilization that helps sustain the submarket's performance even as other LA office areas struggle with lower occupancy rates.
The higher disposable income of this audience also aligns well with the submarket's upscale retail and dining options at nearby Westfield Century City, creating a mutually reinforcing ecosystem where the office environment and surrounding amenities cater to their preferences.
As the broader Los Angeles market grapples with a shrinking commuter base and declining office utilization, the performance gap between premium, amenity-rich locations and traditional office districts is likely to widen. For investors and tenants alike, these trends underscore the growing importance of location quality, demographic targeting, and lifestyle integration in determining long-term office market viability across Southern California.
Century City's success – anchored by its affluent, career-focused workforce and integrated lifestyle amenities – can offer a blueprint for office market resilience in the hybrid work era.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
