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The multi-billion dollar beauty industry has proved to be one of the most resilient retail categories over the past few years – and Ulta Beauty has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend, reporting record growth and experiencing strong foot traffic to its stores.
We dove into the location intelligence data for Ulta to analyze recent foot traffic performance, explore seasonal trends, and better understand the chain’s visitor base.
The past few years have seen Ulta’s monthly foot traffic growing on a near-constant basis – and 2023 was no exception. Year-over-year (YoY) visits to the chain were up by double digits most months and Ulta consistently outperformed the wider Beauty & Spa segment. The company’s success appears poised to continue in 2024, with January 2024 visits up 4.9% relative to the already impressive January 2023, even as foot traffic to the wider Beauty & Spa category dipped.
The consistent foot traffic growth Ulta experienced in 2023 and early 2024 is particularly impressive given that 2022 was also a banner year for the brand – meaning that foot traffic has exceeded the previous years’ growth for two years straight. And the company seems to be capitalizing on its success by further enhancing its shopping experience, expanding its presence with new stores, and emphasizing wellness offerings at existing locations to keep its customers coming back.
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Charting the change in monthly foot traffic to Ulta helps visualize the chain’s seasonal visit patterns and highlight the company’s consistent upward climb since the 2021 retail reopening. The COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns led to a steep drop in foot traffic, but visits picked up – and stayed up – as soon as social-distancing restrictions eased. And though inflation replaced the pandemic as an economic concern, Ulta visits continued on their upward climb, highlighting the broad appeal the chain offers to shoppers of all economic levels.
Ulta also enjoys significantly elevated visits during the holiday season, with foot traffic surging every December. And visits to the chain, even without a holiday spike, continue to exhibit growth – January 2024’s visits were 43.3% higher than they were in January 2019.
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While December may be the month that Ulta sees the most visits, there are plenty of other minor holidays and retail opportunities that contribute to foot traffic spikes to the retailer. And although Valentine’s Day isn’t a holiday in the official sense of the word, Ulta still enjoyed a mid-week boost in visits on Wednesday, February 14th 2024.
Visits to Ulta grew 17.2% on Valentine’s Day compared to traffic of the previous six Wednesdays. February 14th 2024 also saw 10.5% more visitors to Ulta than the day did in 2023, signaling a continued, growing interest in the beauty retailer.
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Ulta has taken pains to carry products for consumers of all ages, genders, and backgrounds –and recently, one age group in particular has been making headlines for its interest in beauty and skincare. Teens and tweens have been flocking to their local malls to try out products from brands like Drunk Elephant, driven, in part, by the rise of #BeautyTok, where influencers on TikTok post their makeup and skincare routines.
And indeed, trade area data indicates that families of all types are overrepresented among Ulta’s visitor base: Analyzing the psychographic makeup of Ulta’s trade areas using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset revealed that the chain’s captured market* includes more family segments when compared to the chain’s potential market*. Specifically, the chain’s captured markets had higher rates of “Near-Urban Diverse Families”, “Upper Suburban Diverse Families”, and “Wealthy Suburban Families” relative to the chain’s potential market. On the flip side, “Young Urban Singles” saw a smaller share of visitors in Ulta’s captured market than in its potential market.
Ulta’s popularity with family segments may be due to the increased demand for skincare and makeup among the families’ younger generations. And by continuing to cater to these younger consumers – alongside the numerous other segment that shop at Ulta – the company can hope to foster long-term brand loyalty and continue driving sales and foot traffic to its stores.
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*A chain’s potential market refers to the population residing in a given trade area, where the Census Block Groups (CBGs) making up the trade area are weighted to reflect the number of households in each CBG.. A chain’s captured market weighs each CBG according to the actual number of visits originating to the chain from that CBG.
Ulta continues to impress, growing its sales and foot traffic even during a uniquely challenging period for the average consumer. By creating a shopping experience that is accessible to people across all ages and income levels, the company ensures that its visits can continue to grow.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
First Watch has been around for over 40 years and is famous for being open from morning to early afternoon and a revolving menu that leans into seasonal ingredients. In recent years, the casual cafe – which derives its name from the nautical term for the first shift of the day – has made significant waves. The chain went public in 2021 and continues to drive consistent revenue and foot traffic – despite a stormy economic climate. We dove into the data to take a closer look at the consumer behavior behind First Watch’s success and understand where the chain could be heading in 2024 and beyond.
The Early Advantage
At First Watch, brunch and lunch join breakfast as the most important meals of the day. And while some of the chain’s competitors are open all day – or even all night – sticking to limited business hours has not steered the brand off course. Analysis of First Watch’s H2 2023 foot traffic compared to the wider breakfast-first category shows that First Watch’s monthly year-over-year (YoY) visits consistently outperformed the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, and Dessert Shops space as a whole.
Some of the chain’s success is due to its expanding store fleet, with visits during the last five months of 2023 up by double digits compared to the equivalent months in 2022. And the chain is likely to rise even further in 2024 and beyond, with CEO Christopher Tomasso seeing continued expansion on the horizon.
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Indeed, looking at more recent data shows that First Watch’s growth is continuing even relative to the already strong 2023, with foot traffic to the chain up YoY and outperforming the wider Breakfast, Bakeries & Dessert Shops space every week of 2024 so far.
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The Next Voyage
C.E.O. Tomasso is determined to stay “true to who we are and what we’ve done regardless of how big we get.” And one way First Watch has stayed true to its identity is by being attentive to the preferences of its target audience. When customers wanted cocktails as a way to unwind with friends over brunch – First Watch delivered. And location intelligence can help identify the next consumer trend to drive the brand’s continued success.
Trade Area Analysis of First Watch in Q4 2023 using the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset revealed that “Food Label Readers”, “Organic Foodies”, and “Vegans” were overrepresented in the restaurant’s trade areas compared to the nationwide benchmark. This indicates that First Watch’s commitment to fresh ingredients resonates with clientele that prioritize a healthy diet. Meanwhile, the data also showed that these consumers were likely to be involved in various forms of exercise; “Fitness Fans”, “Joggers”, “Pilates People”, and “Weight Lifters” were also prevalent psychographic segments in First Watch’s trade area.
This suggests that First Watch might consider exploring uncharted waters by adding smoothies or post-workout shakes to its menu, or by opening smaller-format locations in fitness centers to better serve its health-conscious audience.
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Land Ho!
First Watch has enjoyed smooth sailing through a commitment to bringing diners a fresh take on breakfast, brunch, and lunch. As long as this ship stays anchored in its identity, First Watch should find that the wind is at its back for the foreseeable future.
For updates and more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Whether it’s an at-home yoga practice, a workout at the gym, or a sports league at the park, the biggest players in the sporting goods space – Hibbett Sports and DICK’s Sporting Goods – have the gear to keep a variety of consumers outfitted. Armed with the latest location intelligence data, we took a closer look at these retailers’ recent offline performance and analyzed some of the psychographic characteristics of visitors to DICK’s and Hibbett’s.
Last year started off strong for DICK’s Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports, with visits to both retailers up in Q1 2023 relative to the equivalent quarter in 2022. But ongoing inflation and tighter consumer budgets weighed on visits as the year progressed, and foot traffic to DICK’s and Hibbett dipped slightly year-over-year (YoY) in the second half of the year. Still, in spite of the challenges, both brands succeeded in keeping their visits close to 2022 levels and maintaining minimal visit gaps.
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The strong Q1 2023 combined with unusually cold weather were likely partially to blame for DICK’s and Hibbett’s sluggish early 2024 performance. But by the end of January, YoY visit gaps had narrowed for both brands – a promising sign for the year ahead.
Who is likely to visit these brands in 2024? We looked at the retailers’ trade area composition to find out.
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Analyzing DICK’s and Hibbett’s trade area using the Spatial.ai: Proximity dataset revealed that both brands were positioned to drive traffic from two significant fitness-related psychographic segments at the end of 2023.
In Q4 2023, “Yoga Advocates” as well as fans of “Functional Fitness” were overrepresented in DICK’s and Hibbett’s trade area relative to the nationwide average. And DICK’s and Hibbett are investing heavily in getting these consumers in the door. DICK’s debut of a new functional fabric and ad campaign for its CALIA clothing line and Hibbett’s new joint loyalty program with Nike could provide an extra foot traffic boost from fitness-forward consumers as 2024 progresses. As temperatures thaw and demand rebounds, these consumers are likely to play a part in a foot traffic resurgence for both brands.
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But while certain sporty audience segments seem to visit both brands, diving deeper into DICK’s and Hibbett’s trade areas using the Spatial.ai: Followgraph dataset also revealed differences between the two retailers’ offline consumer base.
For example, the share of “Hunting Enthusiasts” in DICK’s trade area was 8% smaller compared to the nationwide average, while Hibbett’s trade area included 20% more “Hunting Enthusiasts” than the prevalence of the segment nationwide. Meanwhile, the “Triathlon Participants'’ segment was overrepresented in DICK’s potential market – 4.0% above the national average – and underrepresented in Hibbet’s potential market (8.0% below). These differences suggest that the sporting goods space is big enough to accommodate multiple players at the top, with leading retailers each carving out their own slice of the market.
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So Much Potential
After a relatively rocky end to 2023, foot traffic appears to be on the upswing for both DICK’s and Hibbett early on in 2024. The prevalence of fitness-minded and sporting consumers in the trade areas of both brands could provide a continued foot traffic lift in the weeks and months ahead.
For updates and more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
In the U.S., one can find many different dishes that incorporate a range of culinary traditions: Kogi truck introduced us to the joy of putting short ribs and vinaigrette slaw in a corn tortilla, topped off with a distinctly Korean salsa made of Korean chiles, rice wine vinegar, and scallions; Banh mi po’ boys combine the best of Vietnamese and Louisianan tradition; Lime and jalapeno-topped yellowtail sashimi hearkens to both Japanese and Peruvian lineages.
In Los Angeles, the LA Times takes readers on a culinary journey to the world of Black Tacos, where lines can reach 3 hours at Worldwide Tacos as one chooses from unique protein options like lamb, salmon, crab, and duck and mouthwatering flavor combinations like jerk, curry, pina colada, blueberry with blue cheese and raspberry chipotle.
While often anchored with a traditional corn tortilla, Black tacos also incorporate flavors and techniques from soul food, such as versions that use barbeque sauce, yams with wild rice, ground turkey, pulled pork, or hot honey catfish.
Alta Adams has its own take on Black tacos with a jerk-spiced sweet plantain taco. Nestled within a homemade corn tortilla, one will find caramelized plantain, mango-habanero salsa and chopped onion and cilantro. In 2022, the Hollywood Reporter named this spot “Black Hollywood’s Top Restaurant for Power Dining.” This restaurant is a popular evening destination, as patrons sip their inventive cocktails well into the night and see if they might catch a glimpse of Jay-Z or John Legend.
At the Smithsonian’s National Museum of African American History and Culture, the entire month of February was dedicated to “African Americans and the Arts” and the impact of African Americans on visual arts, music, cultural movements, and more. From the BLM Movement to Harlem Hellfighters, Hip Hop and Rap to Musical Life at HBCUs, a rich cornucopia awaits. Per Spatial.ai PersonaLive, among those who visited in the past 6 months, when we look at those comprising 70% of visits, nearly 3 in 10 are Educated Urbanites, as well as a healthy dose of Young Professionals, Near-Urban Diverse Families, and Ultra Wealthy Families.
The museum also attracted a broad cross-section of different ethnicities.
Discount & Dollar stores thrived in 2022 and 2023, as inflation drove many shoppers to trade down and seek out cheaper retail alternatives. But how has the category continued to fare in the new year? Have stabilizing prices led shoppers away from discount chains? Or have dollar stores cemented their position as go-to retailers even when money isn’t quite as tight?
We dove into the data to find out.
Over the past two years, Discount & Dollar Stores have emerged as major disruptors, diversifying both their offerings and their price points – and the category leaders’ continued visit growth suggests that this strategy is helping the chains build significant strength. By investing in private label food items and stocking fresh produce at thousands of locations, Dollar General has established itself as a prime low-cost grocery destination. Family Dollar, owned by Dollar Tree, has also made strong inroads into the supermarket scene, with everything from fruits and veggies to cage-free eggs. Dollar Tree has also broadened its grocery selection to include an array of chilled and frozen foods.
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In January 2024, Discount & Dollar Stores saw a further increase in year-over-year (YoY) visits, building upon the category’s impressive post-COVID gains. Most of the analyzed category leaders also saw YoY visit jumps – no small feat given these retailers’ strong 2022 and 2023 performance.
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Zooming out on the longer-term visitation trajectories of leading discount chains shows just how well positioned the category remains for continued success. Compared to a January 2020 pre-COVID baseline, visits to Dollar General and Dollar Tree were up 24.3% and 14.0%, respectively, in January 2024. While these foot traffic increases were undoubtedly fueled in part by the continued expansion of the chains’ footprints, they highlight strong and growing demand for the category’s bargain fare.
The chains’ visit patterns also reveal clear seasonality in visitation patterns to leading Discount & Dollar Stores, with the chains emerging as holiday shopping destinations. Dollar Tree, which continues to price most items at $1.25, experiences more pronounced seasonal peaks, with visits spiking during the holiday season. And though Dollar General has firmly positioned itself as a year-round destination for essential goods, it too sees foot traffic spikes in December.
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The emergence of Discount & Dollar chains as affordable venues for much-needed necessities has been a major factor in the segment’s success. But the category’s strong positioning as a key holiday shopping player has also helped solidify its place in the nation’s retail landscape.
And looking at monthly fluctuations in the median household income (HHI) of Discount & Dollar Stores’ captured markets shows a subtle but distinct HHI spike during the peak holiday season – meaning that the category draws its audiences from slightly more affluent areas during this all-important time of the year. This trend may be a further indication of the mainstreaming of dollar stores – with higher-HHI consumers especially likely to seek out their bargain-priced quality merchandise in the runup to Christmas.
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Since COVID, Discount & Dollar Stores have solidified their position as mainstream shopping destinations for everything from basic food items to home goods and party supplies. And if January 2024 is any indication, you can bet your bottom dollar on the category’s continued strength heading into the new year.
Follow Placer.ai for more data-driven retail analyses.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
1. AI is raising the bar for physical retail as shoppers arrive more informed, more intentional, and less tolerant of friction – though the impact varies by category and format.
2. As discovery shifts upstream, stores increasingly serve as confirmation rather than discovery points where shoppers validate decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
3. AI-based tools can improve in-store performance by removing operational friction – shortening trips in efficiency-led formats and supporting deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
4. By embedding expertise directly into frontline workflows, AI helps retailers deliver consistent, high-quality service despite high turnover and limited training windows.
5. AI enables precise, location-specific marketing and execution, allowing retailers of any size to align assortments, staffing, and messaging with real local demand.
6. Retailers can also use AI to manage their store fleets with greater discipline and understand where to expand, where to avoid cannibalization, and where to rightsize based on observed demand rather than static assumptions.
7. AI is not a universal lever in physical retail; its value depends on the store format, and in discovery-driven models it should support operations behind the scenes rather than reshape the customer experience.
Physical retail has faced repeated claims of obsolescence, from the rise of e-commerce to the shock of COVID. Each time, analysts predicted a structural decline in brick-and-mortar. And each time, physical retail adapted.
AI has triggered a similar round of predictions. Much of the current discussion frames retail’s future as a binary outcome: either stores become heavily automated, or e-commerce becomes so optimized that physical locations lose relevance altogether.
But past disruptions point in a different direction. E-commerce changed how physical retail operated by raising expectations for omnichannel integration, speed, and clarity of purpose. Retailers that adjusted store formats, merchandising, and operations accordingly went on to drive sustained growth.
AI likely represents another inflection point for physical retail. As shoppers arrive with more information, clearer intent, and even less tolerance for friction than in the age of "old-fashioned" e-commerce, physical stores will remain – but the standards they are held to continue to rise.
This report presents four ways retailers are using AI to get – and stay – ahead as physical retail adapts to this next wave of disruption.
E-commerce moved discovery earlier in the shopping journey. Instead of beginning the process in-store, many shoppers now arrive at brick-and-mortar locations after having deeply researched products, comparing options, and narrowing choices online – entering the store to validate rather than initiate their purchasing decision.
AI-powered shopping accelerates this pattern. Conversational assistants, recommendation engines, and AI-driven discovery across search and social reduce the time and effort required to evaluate options – and this shift is changing consumers' expectations around the in-store experience.
Apple shows what it looks like when a physical store is built for well-informed shoppers. Given the prevalence of AI-powered search and assistants in high-consideration categories like consumer electronics, Apple customers likely arrive at the Apple Store with more preferences already shaped by AI-assisted research than other retail categories.
Apple Stores were designed for this kind of customer long before AI became widespread. The layout puts working products directly in customers’ hands, merchandising emphasizes live use over promotional signage, and associates are trained to answer detailed technical questions rather than walk shoppers through basic options.
That alignment is showing up in store behavior. Even as AI-powered shopping expands, Apple Stores continue to see rising foot traffic and longer visits thanks to the store's specific and curated role in the customer journey – a place where customers confirm decisions through hands-on experience and expert guidance.
Some applications of AI extend trends that e-commerce has already introduced. Others address operational challenges that previously required manual coordination or tradeoffs.
AI can reduce friction and make store visits more predictable by improving staffing allocation, reducing checkout delays, optimizing inventory placement, and managing traffic flow. These changes reduce friction without altering the visible customer experience.
Sam's Club offers a clear, recent example of AI solving a specific in-store bottleneck. For years, customers completed checkout only to face a second line at the exit, where an employee manually scanned paper receipts and spot-checked carts.
In early 2024, Sam’s Club introduced computer vision-powered exit gates, allowing customers to exit the store without stopping as AI algorithms instantly captured images of the items in their carts and matched them against digital purchase data. Employees previously tasked with receipt checks could now shift their focus to member assistance and in-store support.
The impact was measurable. Sam’s Club reported that customers now exit stores 23% faster than under manual receipt checks, a result confirmed by a sustained nationwide decline in average dwell time. During the same period, in-store traffic increased 3.3% year-over-year – demonstrating how removing friction with AI can deliver tangible gains.
AI optimizes stores for different outcomes. At Sam’s Club, it shortens visits by removing friction from task-driven trips. At Apple, upstream research leads to longer visits focused on testing, questions, and decision validation. In both cases, AI aligns store execution with shopper intent – prioritizing speed and throughput in efficiency-led formats and deeper engagement in experience-led ones.
Beyond shaping store roles and streamlining operations, AI can also address a long-standing challenge in physical retail: delivering consistent, high-quality expertise on the sales floor despite high turnover and seasonal staffing. In the past, retailers relied on heavy training investments that often failed to pay off. AI can now embed that expertise directly into frontline workflows, allowing associates to deliver confident, informed service regardless of tenure and strengthening the in-store experience at scale.
In May 2025, Lowe’s rolled out a major in-store AI enhancement called Mylow Companion, an AI-powered assistant that equips frontline staff with real-time, expert support on product details, home improvement projects, inventory, and customer questions.
Mylow Companion is embedded directly into associates’ handheld devices, delivering instant guidance through natural, conversational interactions, including voice-to-text. This enables even newly hired employees to provide confident, expert-level advice from day one, while helping experienced associates upsell and cross-sell more effectively. The tool complements Mylow, a customer-facing AI advisor launched the same year to help shoppers plan projects and discover the right products, leading to increased customer satisfaction.
While AI alone cannot solve demand challenges—especially amid macroeconomic pressure on large-ticket discretionary spending—early signals suggest it may still play a meaningful role. Location analytics indicate narrowing year-over-year visit gaps at Lowe’s post-deployment, pointing to a potentially improved in-store experience. And Home Depot’s recent announcement of agentic AI tools developed with Google Cloud suggests that these technologies are becoming table stakes in this category.
As more retailers roll out similar capabilities, those that moved earlier are better positioned to help set the bar – and benefit as the market adapts.
Beyond improving the in-store experience, AI also gives retailers a powerful way to drive foot traffic through precision marketing. By processing large volumes of behavioral, location, and timing data, AI can help retailers decide who to reach, when to engage them, where to activate, and what message or assortment will resonate – shifting marketing from broad seasonal pushes to campaigns grounded in local demand.
Target offers an early example of this approach before AI became widespread. Stores near college campuses have long tailored assortments and messaging around the academic calendar, especially during the back-to-school season. In August, these locations emphasize dorm essentials, compact storage, bedding, tech accessories, and affordable décor – supported by campaigns aimed at students and parents preparing for move-in. That localized approach has been effective in driving in-store traffic to Target stores near college campuses, with these venues seeing consistent visit spikes every August and outperforming the national average across multiple back-to-school seasons from 2023 to 2025.
AI makes local execution repeatable at scale. By analyzing visit patterns, past performance, and timing signals across thousands of locations, retailers can decide which products to promote, how to staff stores, and when to run campaigns at each location. Marketing, merchandising, and store operations then act on the same demand signals instead of separate assumptions.
Crucially, AI makes this level of localization accessible to retailers of all sizes. What once required the resources and institutional knowledge of a big-box giant can now be achieved through precision marketing and demand forecasting tools, allowing brands to adapt each store’s messaging, assortment, and execution to the unique rhythms of its community.
Beyond improving performance at individual stores, AI can also give retailers a clearer view of how their entire store fleet is working – and where it should grow, contract, or change. By analyzing foot traffic patterns, trade areas, customer overlap, and visit frequency across locations, AI helps retailers identify which sites are truly reaching their target audiences and which are underperforming relative to local demand.
AI also plays a critical role in smarter expansion. Retailers can use it to identify markets and neighborhoods where demand is growing, customer overlap is low, and incremental visits are likely – reducing the risk of cannibalization when opening new stores. By modeling how shoppers move between existing locations, AI can flag when a proposed site will attract new customers versus simply shifting traffic from nearby stores, grounding expansion decisions in observed behavior rather than demographic proxies or intuition alone.
Equally important, AI helps retailers recognize when expansion no longer makes sense. By tracking total fleet traffic, visit growth, and trade-area saturation, retailers can assess whether new stores are adding net demand or diluting performance. The same signals can identify locations where demand has structurally declined, informing rightsizing decisions and store closures. In this way, AI supports a more disciplined approach to physical retail – one that treats the store fleet as a dynamic system to be optimized over time, rather than a footprint that only grows.
The impact of AI on physical retail will vary significantly by category and format. Not every successful store experience is built around efficiency, prediction, or pre-qualification. Retailers with clearly differentiated offline value don’t necessarily benefit from forcing AI into customer-facing experiences that dilute what makes their stores work.
“Treasure hunt” formats are a clear example. Off-price retailers like TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington continue to drive strong traffic by offering unpredictability, scarcity, and discovery that cannot be replicated – or meaningfully enhanced – through AI-driven search or recommendation. The appeal lies precisely in not knowing what you’ll find. For these retailers, heavy investment in AI-led personalization or pre-shopping guidance risks undermining the core experience rather than improving it.
Similar dynamics apply in other categories. Independent boutiques, vintage stores, resale shops, and certain specialty retailers succeed by offering curation, serendipity, and human taste rather than optimization. In these cases, AI may still play a role behind the scenes – supporting inventory planning, pricing, or site selection – but it should not reshape the customer-facing experience. AI is most valuable when it reinforces a retailer’s existing value proposition. Formats built around discovery, surprise, or experiential browsing should protect those strengths, even as other parts of the retail landscape move toward greater efficiency and intent-driven shopping.
AI is forcing physical retail to evolve with intention. By creating a supportive environment for customers who arrive with made-up minds, removing friction inside the store, offering the best in-store services, and orchestrating demand with greater precision, retailers are adapting to the new world standards set by AI. All five strategies focus on aligning stores with shopper intent – what customers want, how the store supports it, and when the interaction happens.
The retailers that win in this next era won’t be the ones that use AI to simply automate what already exists. They’ll be the ones that use it to sharpen the role of physical retail – turning stores into places that help shoppers validate decisions, deliver value beyond convenience, and show up at exactly the right moment in a customer’s journey.
In the age of AI, physical retail wins by becoming more intentional – designed around informed shoppers, optimized for the right outcome in each format, and activated at moments when demand is real.
If 2025 proved anything, it’s that the American consumer hasn’t stopped spending – they’ve just become incredibly selective about who earns their dollar. As we look toward 2026, success isn't just about weathering headwinds; it's about identifying the specific operational levers that drive traffic.
We analyzed the data to identify ten retail and dining standouts (presented in no particular order) that are especially well-positioned for the year ahead. From grocery icons mastering hyper-authenticity to fitness challengers proving that low price doesn't mean low quality, these companies have demonstrated a powerful understanding of their audience and the operational agility to meet them where they are.
Here – in no particular order – are the brands setting the pace for 2026.
When we pick retailers for our Ten Top list, there are some that rest on the edgier side and others that look fairly down the middle. Picking H-E-B, a grocer that has seen monthly visits up year over year (YoY) for all but one month since April of 2021, is clearly not one of the bolder claims. But consistent success shouldn’t preclude a retailer from receiving its well deserved kudos, and there are some unique reasons that H-E-B specifically needs to be included this year.
H-E-B exemplifies the single most important trend in retail: the need for a brand to have authenticity and a clear reason for being. The retailer understands its audience, and as a result, it’s able to optimize its merchandising, promotions, and experience to best serve that loyal customer base. This pops in the data when we see the loyalty H-E-B commands, especially when compared to the grocery average.
In addition, the chain has also embraced adjacent innovation, leveraging its existing fleet by adding True Texas BBQ to a growing number of locations. The offering not only helps maximize the revenue potential of each visit, it taps into the core identity of the brand, further deepening customer connection and authenticity. The strategy also signals H-E-B’s understanding of emerging consumer behaviors – particularly the increase in shoppers turning to grocery stores for affordable, restaurant-quality lunches. And this combination of expanding revenue channels while heightening H-E-B’s uniqueness should also carry over into the value and impact of its retail media network.
In short, H-E-B has not only identified a critical route to success, it continues to embrace channels that widen revenue potential while doubling down on foundational strengths.
In 2024, Michaels held nearly 32.0% of overall visit share among the top four retailers in the wider crafts and hobby space. By the second half of 2025, that number had skyrocketed to just over 40.0% – driven largely by the closures of key competitors JoAnn Fabrics and Party City.
And it isn’t just that the removal of competitors is increasing the share of overall visits; the rate of capture appears to be accelerating. In Q2 2025, visits rose 7.3% YoY as Michaels began absorbing traffic from Party City, which closed the bulk of its locations by March. Growth strengthened further in Q3, with visits up 13.1% YoY following the completion of JoAnn’s shutdown in May. But during the all-important Q4, traffic surged even higher YoY, suggesting that that consolidation alone doesn’t fully explain the gains.
While the tailwinds of competitor closures clearly help, there are other strategies that are helping the retailer maximize this wave. Whether it be NFL partnerships to boost the retailer’s Sunday role in American households, a push into the framing space with 10-minute custom framing, the addition of JoAnn’s branded merchandise to its offerings, or even a challenge to Etsy’s online dominance with a new marketplace – Michaels is making moves to take full advantage of their improved positioning. There is also an argument to be made that Michaels is the retailer best poised to benefit from the segment’s consolidation, given that it is also the most oriented to a higher income consumer among top players in the category. This could help unlock other more focused concepts and promotions, and better align with an audience now looking for a retail replacement.
Walmart is the dominant player in physical retail.
And they leverage this position to push forward new offerings that extend revenue potential while maximizing per-store impact. They are a pioneer in the retail media space and have been using their unique reach to push that side of the business forward. Add to that the fact that they have been among the savviest players in all of retail in identifying the ideal approach to omnichannel, utilizing their massive physical footprint to improve their reach via BOPIS and store-fulfilled e-commerce.
All good reasons for inclusion, right?
But, here’s the kicker - from a pure visit perspective, things are going from good to better. Between January and September 2025, Walmart visits were essentially flat year over year – a good position for a retailer with such a massive reach and such strength shown in recent years. Yet, since October, visits have actually been on the rise, with Q4 2025 showing a 2.5% YoY traffic increase and several weeks exceeding 4.0% YoY.
A retail giant with even more potential growth than we might have expected – and one that’s pushing the very strategies we believe are the key to future success? That’s certainly a reason for inclusion.
Including a department store again on this year’s list? It seems counterintuitive to many of the narratives that ran through 2025, especially as middle-class consumers continue to be squeezed financially. However, Dillard’s still appears to be an exception to the rule, with performance more closely aligned to that of luxury department store brands like Bloomingdales & Nordstrom than to its true competitive set.
In 2025, visitation to Dillard’s was essentially flat YoY – though the chain has consistently outperformed the wider department store category. Dillard’s stands at a unique point somewhere between a mid-tier and luxury department store, and that distinction may be its secret to success. The retailer continues to wow with strong private label offerings that rival and often exceed national brands, a diverse merchandise mix, and locations that often benefit from indoor mall traffic trends.
While Dillard’s lags behind the wider department store category, for example, in terms of repeat visitation and the share of wealthy visitors, these factors may actually create an advantage. Efforts by Dillard's to refresh its product mix through limited-edition capsule collections and new brand launches may be helping it attract a steady inflow of economically diverse new shoppers. And the ability to continually win over new segments without alienating a “core customer” could be a strength amid economic headwinds and waning consumer sentiment.
At the same time, a more diverse visitor profile means that Dillard’s can truly be the department store for many consumers, with a product range that strikes a chord with different shopper segments.
Department stores truly aren’t dead, and those who have found their reason to exist continue to garner attention with shoppers.
If the retail industry had a symbol for 2025, it was probably Labubu. The toy-and-collectible-turned–bag charm took consumers by storm in the second quarter of the year, and POP MART – the retailer responsible for bringing Labubus stateside – quickly became an overnight sensation. Visits to the chain surged over the summer at the height of the craze, while trade areas expanded as customers traveled significant distances to get their hands on a doll.
And although the frenzy cooled somewhat in early fall, visits to POP MART locations like the one in Tulalip, WA began trending upward once again in November 2025 as the holiday season approached, surging even higher in December. Trade area size also increased dramatically during the holiday shopping period, as consumers rushed to get their hands on the chain’s coveted line of festive blind boxes.
As demonstrated by the recent Starbucks Bearista craze, consumers are all-in on cool collectible items that make life more fun – a trend POP MART, strategically located in high-traffic malls popular with younger shoppers, is uniquely positioned to ride. During times of economic uncertainty, consumers crave small ways to indulge, and affordable collectibles that are cute, cuddly, and fun have worked their way into the American zeitgeist.
So, what is next for POP MART? Can it continue to sustain its momentum? It seems likely that Labubus are here to stay, at least for a little while longer, before the retailer hopefully strikes it big with the next “must have”.
When all is said and done, 2021-2025 will likely be viewed as a pivotal turning point for the U.S. coffee industry. As the country recovered from the pandemic, consumer interaction with coffee brands fundamentally shifted. With more employees working from home – bypassing the traditional pre-work coffee run – visit trends migrated to later in the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, industry-wide dwell times shortened as consumers renewed their focus on convenience.
This move away from the sit-down café experience placed significant pressure on industry leaders, accelerating the shift toward drive-thru and mobile order-and-pay options. This moment of friction also created space for drive-thru-centric challengers like Dutch Bros, which rapidly expanded on the strength of speed and menu innovation.
Among these challengers, 7 Brew stands out as a fast-rising powerhouse heading into 2026. Expanding outward from its Arkansas roots, 7 Brew has been strategic about market entry and site selection for its unique double-drive-thru format. And with a concept that resonates with younger demographics and a footprint adaptable to various geographies, the coffee chain has become a go-to destination for rural and small-town communities, while also maintaining solid reach among more traditional coffee segments like wealthy suburbanites and urban singles. Thanks in part to this broad appeal, 7 Brew is well-positioned for future growth, even as it faces stiffer competition in new markets.
It is no secret that most of the growth in the QSR space over the past two decades has been driven by chicken concepts. Chick-fil-A, rising from a regional chain to a national player throughout the late 1990s and 2000s, was the first to disrupt the burger’s stranglehold on QSR. Raising Cane’s followed in the 2010s with a model built on menu simplicity and operational excellence, earning its place as one of the largest chains in the category. More recently, hot chicken has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments – and Dave’s Hot Chicken is leading the charge.
No single factor accounts for Dave’s growth from a lone unit in Los Angeles to over 350 units today. Certainly, a wide assortment of sauces and flavor profiles has resonated with U.S. consumers who are increasingly seeking spicier products, while Dave’s 'rebel' brand positioning has successfully attracted younger audiences. And at a time when many QSR and fast-casual chains are abandoning urban locations in favor of suburban markets, Dave’s Hot Chicken continues to open predominantly in urban settings – a strategy that may prove advantageous as migration patterns shift back toward major cities this year.
With so much of the industry’s expansion driven by chicken concepts, it is natural to ask: Have we reached 'peak chicken'? While we are certainly seeing other categories gain traction – think CAVA – Dave’s unique product mix and edgier marketing should help it stand out, even amidst increased competition.
While many discretionary retail categories – including consumer electronics, sporting goods, home improvement, and furniture – are still waiting for post-pandemic demand to recover, housewares retailers have generally enjoyed solid visit trends in 2025. Although consumers may not be financially positioned for large-scale remodels, we are now five years past the pandemic, and many residents (many of whom still work from home) are looking to refresh their living spaces.
It may therefore come as no surprise that TJX Companies’ HomeGoods and Homesense brands had an exceptional 2025 and are well-positioned to repeat this success in 2026.
This year, we observed a behavioral shift among middle-income consumers, including a clear “trade down” from mid-tier department stores and other discretionary categories. In addition, accumulated housing wear-and-tear, the recent bankruptcies of value-oriented competitors such as Conn’s and At Home, and the enduring appeal of the treasure hunt retail model, have all reinforced the brands’ momentum. Taken together, these trends leave HomeGoods and Homesense poised for both continued unit growth and increased traffic in the year ahead.
With the heightened emphasis on health and wellness post-pandemic, fitness is proving to be a category with remarkable staying power well beyond New Year’s resolution season – even in an era of macroeconomic uncertainty. Whether it’s pumping iron, hitting the treadmill, or joining fitness classes, staying healthy no longer requires breaking the bank – for just a dollar a day or less, gymgoers can build strength and endurance, achieve their rep goals, and hit their mileage targets. And affordable fitness chains – those that charge less than $30 per month – are reaping the benefits, outperforming more expensive gyms for YoY visit growth.
Among this value-oriented fitness cohort, EōS saw outsized traffic growth in 2025, with both overall visits and average visits per location outpacing competitors as the chain expands its footprint. EōS’s motto, “High Value, Low Price,” appears to be resonating strongly – especially in a year when similar value propositions are driving momentum across off-price retailers, value grocers, and dollar stores. Longer-than-average dwell times at EōS provide another encouraging signal, suggesting that its amenities, including pools, saunas, basketball courts, and equipment assortments typically found in higher-priced gyms, are truly connecting with visitors. And since visitors who stay longer are more likely to return – and to renew their memberships – EōS is well-positioned to convert this year’s traffic gains into lasting market share.
Eating and entertainment are a match made in heaven — and by leaning into a subscription model that meets price-sensitive customers where they are, Chuck E. Cheese has solidified its position as a standout in the eatertainment category.
Nearly 50 years old, this evergreen children’s entertainment concept has stood the test of time and now boasts roughly 500 venues nationwide. Its perennial tagline – “where a kid can be a kid” – still resonates with today’s children and with the parents who grew up with the brand. After languishing for several years in the wake of COVID, the company turned things around with a revamped Summer Fun Pass launched on April 30th, 2024. The offer of unlimited play per month sparked a dramatic boost in customer loyalty, and the model proved so successful that the company extended it year-round with a family pass as low as $7.99 per month.
This strategy has helped sustain visit growth throughout 2025. Despite closing several locations during the year, visits to Chuck E. Cheese rose 8.3% YoY – well above the flat eatertainment average. And the company’s loyalty rates outpaced last year from August through November, indicating that the offering isn’t losing steam and that customers continue to respond enthusiastically.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlights that there is no single path to success in 2026.
H-E-B and Chuck E. Cheese demonstrate the power of deepening loyalty through authentic experiences and value-driven memberships. Michaels and HomeGoods show how savvy retailers can capitalize on competitor consolidation and changing consumer spending habits. Meanwhile, Walmart and 7 Brew prove that even in saturated markets, operational innovation can drive fresh momentum.
As we move deeper into 2026, the brands that win will be those that, like the ten profiled here, combine a clear understanding of their unique value proposition with the agility to execute on it.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
