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With roughly one in eight Americans now using GLP-1 medications for weight loss, their rapid adoption is shaping up to be one of the most consequential behavioral shifts in recent memory – with wide-ranging implications for businesses tied to how people spend their time and money.
We analyzed the data to understand how GLP-1 usage may be influencing real-world retail and dining foot traffic. How is grocery store visitation changing? What’s happening in limited-service dining? And which other categories are gaining from a heightened focus on health and wellness – further accelerating trends that began to take hold after the pandemic?
Research from Cornell University shows that GLP-1 users reduce household grocery spending by an average of 5.3% within six months of starting a medication, with the most significant pullbacks concentrated in calorie-dense, processed categories. At the same time, a handful of health-oriented foods – including yogurt, fresh fruit, nutrition bars, and meat snacks – are seeing increased spend.
And foot traffic data points to a parallel shift in where consumers are shopping, with a growing share of grocery visits flowing toward fresh-format stores like Trader Joe’s and Sprouts Farmers Market that emphasize high-quality perishables, curated health-oriented assortments, and an elevated in-store experience. While this pivot has been underway for several years, reflecting a broader post-pandemic focus on health and wellness, its recent acceleration coincides with the rise in GLP-1 use.
From Q1 2022 to Q1 2026, these chains steadily expanded their share of overall grocery foot traffic, with momentum accelerating beginning in Q1 2024, even as some experienced per-store softness amid a challenging consumer environment. Over the same period, the median household income within fresh-format chains’ captured markets, which had remained largely stable through early 2024, began to decline. This trend suggests a broadening customer base, as households across income brackets increasingly prioritize higher-quality food and allocate a larger share of their grocery trips to fresh formats.
The reallocation of spending also extends beyond the grocery aisle. Foot traffic data points to a meaningful reordering of food-away-from-home visits over the past three years, with healthier dining segments outperforming more indulgent ones – underscoring a broader shift toward more nutritious options that GLP-1 adoption may be helping to reinforce.
Frozen yogurt chains outpaced ice cream shops in year-over-year visit growth in both 2024 and 2025, as consumers gravitated toward lighter frozen treats. Smoothie and juice chains also captured growing demand, buoyed by expanding footprints from brands like Tropical Smoothie Cafe, Smoothie King, and Playa Bowls, while fast-casual similarly pulled ahead of QSR.
Fitness participation has been on the rise since the pandemic, and the data suggests gym habits are becoming more consistent over time – a trend that GLP-1 users, who often incorporate structured exercise into their routines, may be helping to reinforce.
Between Q1 2023 and Q1 2026, the share of visitors to leading gyms stopping by at least three times in an average month rose from 44.8% to 46.8%, while the share visiting at least four times rose from 37.3% to 39.1%. For a growing segment of the population, going to the gym has become a regular part of the weekly routine – with implications for fitness brands and the broader ecosystem of health-oriented businesses competing for this newly routine-driven consumer.
As consumers deepen their focus on health and fitness, the body transformations associated with GLP-1 use are also reshaping apparel demand. Alongside a growing need for wardrobe replenishment, GLP-1 users are investing more in their appearance and rediscovering the experience of shopping for clothes.
And this trend aligns with recent foot traffic data. Even as discretionary spending continues to face headwinds in a challenging macroeconomic environment, clothing retailers are seeing consistent year-over-year visit growth, driven in large part by the off-price sector – with each year outpacing the broader discretionary retail category by a widening margin. Apparel is pulling away from the pack, likely driven in part by a consumer whose relationship with their body – and with shopping – has fundamentally changed.
The GLP-1 era is still in its early stages – but as programs like Amazon’s new GLP-1 management program expand access, these drugs are likely to continue reshaping shopping behavior in the months and years ahead. The data points to a consumer who is eating differently, moving more, and spending in ways that reflect a new set of priorities, further amplifying the focus on health and wellness that has emerged over the past several years.
For more data-driven retail and dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Sprouts Farmers Market entered 2026 expecting a challenging quarter – and Q1 foot traffic trends bore that out. Against a Q1 2025 comparison where comps surged 11.7% year over year (YoY), the company guided Q1 2026 comparable sales to decline between -3.0% and -1.0%, citing both the tough lap and continued pressure on grocery shoppers from elevated food prices. And same-store visits also dropped, falling between -3.0% and -6.0% YoY in Q1.
Still, overall foot traffic rose 1.8%, supported by the 37 stores opened in fiscal 2025 and additional locations added in early 2026, which helped offset softness at existing stores.
Against this backdrop, Sprouts is making several forward-looking investments that could support a traffic recovery later this year. Continued expansion, a new loyalty program launched in 2025, and ongoing merchandising innovation – alongside its transition to self-distribution for fresh meat – all position the company to compete on both quality and value as macro conditions evolve.
Will Sprouts return to same-store visit growth in Q2?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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In February 2026, Chipotle unveiled its "Recipe for Growth" plan to reverse declining sales by improving operations, boosting marketing, and refreshing its menu. And though the plan has only been in place for a couple of months, traffic data suggests that it may already be having a positive impact on foot traffic to the chain.
After three consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in average visits per location, Chipotle's foot traffic trends are showing signs of recovery. In Q1 2026, average visits per location were nearly flat (-0.2% YoY), while overall visits grew 5.8% – the strongest growth seen over the past year.
Several branding and menu innovations likely contributed to Chipotle's traffic recovery, including the high protein menu launched in late December 2025 and partnerships with athletes and sporting events. The biggest single driver, however, appears to have been the return of Chicken al Pastor on February 10, 2026 – a fan-favorite protein that had generated more social media requests for its comeback than any other LTO in the chain's history. In the month of its launch, overall visits rose 10.1% YoY and same-store visits grew 5.1%.
Still, the following month, overall visits were up just 3.6% and same-store visits were flat – suggesting that popular menu items can generate meaningful visit spikes, but those spikes may not automatically translate into lasting traffic bumps.
Chipotle appears to be leaning into this dynamic rather than fighting it. Starting April 28, the chain is rotating out Chicken al Pastor in favor of Honey Chicken – its best-performing LTO ever – effectively betting that a steady drumbeat of novelty and scarcity can sustain traffic where any single item cannot.
Another pillar of the company's "Back to Growth" plan entailed creating "new occasions that drive demand into our restaurants" – and Chipotle seems to have accomplished just that with its successful "Tatted Like a Chipotle Bag" BOGO promotion.
On March 13, 2026, from 3 to 4 PM local time, Chipotle offered an in-store BOGO entrée to any customer sporting a tattoo – real, temporary, or hand-drawn – a nod to the iconic tattoo-style graphics on a Chipotle bag. The one-hour activation drove a 55.3% spike in visits above the year-to-date average, with the highest daily visit count recorded since Placer.ai began tracking Chipotle's traffic in 2018. Chipotle also reported March 13th 2026 as the highest daily sales day in the chain's history.
That a single one-hour, in-store promotion could shatter the chain's all-time sales record speaks to the power of Chipotle's brand equity and the effectiveness of leaning into what makes it culturally distinct.
The early results suggest that Chipotle's 'Recipe for Growth' is already working – Q1's traffic recovery was built on a potent mix of menu innovation, viral activations, and renewed cultural relevance. But while the chain's strategy of cycling LTOs and engineering shareable moments has clearly rekindled consumer excitement – whether this delivers consistent same-store visit growth will be the real measure of "Recipe for Growth" success.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
After a strong Q4 2025 that delivered record single-day sales and one of the largest digital acquisition events in McDonald's history, Q1 2026 posed a harder test. Severe weather, pressure on lower-income consumers, and rising gas prices all weighed on the QSR category. So how did McDonald’s perform in Q1? We dove into the data to find out.
Q1 2026 visits to McDonald’s rose 0.6% year over year (YoY), with average visits per location essentially flat at 0.1%. Given Winter Storm Fern’s outsized impact on January traffic and a consumer environment that grew more selective as the quarter progressed, finishing Q1 in positive territory is a meaningful result.
That resilience reflects momentum built in Q4 2025, when McDonald’s delivered across all three of the pillars the company has identified as central to the brand's recovery: value, marketing, and menu. The September 2025 relaunch of Extra Value Meals helped reestablish McDonald’s value positioning, while MONOPOLY – returning to U.S. restaurants for the first time in nearly a decade – became one of the brand’s largest digital customer acquisition events ever. Meanwhile, the December 2025 Grinch Meal, featuring Dill Pickle McShaker Fries and collectible holiday socks, drove the highest single sales day in company history.
McDonald’s carried that strategy into Q1, bringing back the Shamrock Shake in February and launching the Big Arch Burger nationally in March. But in a quarter shaped by weather disruption and more cautious consumer spending, these initiatives generated more muted traffic responses than Q4’s record-setting activations.
The chart below illustrates McDonald’s uneven performance throughout the quarter. January same-store visits fell 1.3% YoY, due in part to Winter Storm Fern, which swept across more than 30 states late in the month, disrupting operations and driving temporary restaurant closures. February rebounded to +3.8% YoY, supported by pent-up demand and the return of the Shamrock Shake, which delivered a modest but discernable lift during its launch week. March, however, slipped back to -1.2% – reflecting the Big Arch Burger's more muted traffic response and possibly also the tightening of consumer purse strings in the face of rising gas prices.
But despite this consumer caution, the response to McDonald's latest pop-culture collab shows that even in a more demanding environment, the right promotion can still cut through.
On March 31 – the launch date of McDonald's collaboration with Netflix's Oscar-winning animated film KPop Demon Hunters – Tuesday visits reached 11.1% above the year-to-date Tuesday average, the highest single Tuesday reading of the entire first quarter. The promotion featured two dueling adult meals inspired by the film's rival groups, HUNTR/X and the Saja Boys, along with limited-time Korean-inspired items like Ramyeon McShaker Fries. And traffic stayed elevated in the days that followed, contributing to the chain's busiest week of the year so far.
Q1 data shows that McDonald’s can still drive traffic at scale, even in a softer environment. But success increasingly depends on executing consistently across value, marketing, and menu – while also delivering the kind of culturally relevant moments that give consumers a compelling reason to visit. How will the chain perform in Q2 as it rolls out its revamped McValue menu?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Starbucks and Dutch Bros may both operate in the coffee space, but they are pursuing distinct strategies that reflect their different stages of growth. Starbucks, the legacy leader, is focused on revitalizing its established brand. Dutch Bros, the newer, fast-growing entrant, is expanding its footprint and building brand awareness. And AI-powered location analytics suggests that both approaches appear to be working.
Dutch Bros is driving traffic through aggressive expansion, a drive-thru–focused model, and ongoing menu innovation. Meanwhile, Starbucks’ “Back to Starbucks” plan centers on closing underperforming stores, re-emphasizing the coffeehouse experience, and simplifying operations. Both chains may also be benefiting from the current consumer headwinds driving demand for affordable treats, with year-over-year (YoY) same-store visits up every month of the past six months.
In September 2024, Starbucks' then-new CEO Brian Niccol announced the Back to Starbucks turnaround strategy, focusing on reestablishing the brand's core identity as a coffee-first, community-centered brand, centered on high-quality coffee, skilled baristas, and a welcoming in-store experience. It also prioritizes improving service speed and consistency, simplifying operations, and strengthening the overall customer experience.
In September 2024, shortly after becoming CEO, Brian Niccol introduced the company's "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy, aimed at restoring the brand’s identity as a coffee-first, community-centered experience built on quality coffee, skilled baristas, and welcoming stores. The plan also emphasizes improving speed and consistency, simplifying operations, and enhancing the overall customer experience.
Traffic data reveals that the restructuring plan is already bearing fruit. Over the past two full quarters (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026) the company's overall traffic and average visits per venue increased 4.9% to 5.9% compared to the previous year – a particularly strong performance given broader consumer headwinds. If sustained, this momentum could signal a meaningful and durable return to growth for the brand.
Concurrently, Dutch Bros’ rapid expansion is translating into strong top-line traffic growth, with overall visits rising at a double-digit pace throughout 2025 and into early 2026. Quarterly gains ranged from 12.3% to 17.9% YoY as the brand entered new markets and scaled its footprint.
At the same time, average visits per location have remained relatively stable, suggesting that new store openings are not significantly cannibalizing existing units. This combination of robust overall traffic growth and steady per-location performance points to a healthy expansion strategy, where footprint growth is driving incremental demand rather than diluting it.
As both brands continue to execute on their respective strategies, early traffic trends suggest that there is no single path to growth in today’s coffee space. Starbucks’ operational reset and Dutch Bros’ expansion-led model are each resonating with consumers, albeit in different ways. The key question going forward will be whether these gains can be sustained as macro pressures persist and competition intensifies.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai.anchor
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In a macroeconomic environment that continues to challenge dining chains, Shake Shack’s performance offers a clear signal of what consumers prioritize in 2026 – familiarity, convenience, and affordable indulgences.
Over the past several years, Shake Shack has expanded its footprint while maintaining solid performance at existing locations. In Q4 2025, total revenue rose nearly 22% year over year, while same-store sales increased 2.1%, driven primarily by pricing alongside a modest (+0.5%) lift in traffic – marking the brand’s 20th consecutive quarter of positive comparable growth. Restaurant-level margins also improved, pointing to stronger execution at the unit level.
And that momentum carried into Q1 2026. Overall visits rose 19.9% YoY, with average visits per location increasing in every month except January, when severe weather – including Winter Storm Fern – likely contributed to a slight 0.4% YoY dip.
A key driver of this consistency is Shake Shack’s alignment with evolving consumer routines. Loyalty has been rising, with repeat visitors accounting for an increasing share of traffic. At the same time, shorter weekday visits are becoming more common, suggesting that more customers are incorporating the brand into their weekly rhythms – whether for a quick lunch or an afternoon treat. And Shake Shack’s newly announced loyalty platform is likely to reinforce this behavior, further embedding the brand into day-to-day routines.
Menu innovation and popular limited-time offers also continue to play a major role in Shake Shack’s growth. Last summer, the nationwide launch of the Dubai Chocolate Pistachio Shake generated significant buzz. And more recently, the chain’s popular Valentine’s Day “True Love Shake” BOGO delivered its busiest day of the year – with visits jumping 14.8% above the typical Saturday baseline.
Shake Shack’s expansion strategy and visitation patterns point to a broader truth about dining in 2026: Success increasingly hinges on fitting seamlessly into everyday life while still delivering moments of excitement. As macroeconomic pressures persist, the brands that can balance routine convenience with craveable, culturally relevant offerings are likely to lead the next phase of growth.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
