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Looking Ahead to the 2024 Holiday Season
We dove into the data to see what retail foot traffic trends can tell us about what to expect this holiday season.
Maytal Cohen
Oct 3, 2024
4 minutes

With Q4 2024 just underway, retailers are already gearing up for the all-important holiday season. A condensed shopping window – just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year – is prompting many to launch early deals and promotions. And though consumers remain cautious, shoppers are expected to spend more this year than they did in 2023. 

But what can recent visitation trends tell us about how this year’s holiday season will really play out? We dove into visit data for various retail categories and chains to try and predict what’s in store for the all-important fourth quarter of 2024.

Promising Year, Promising Season

A look at the overall state of brick-and-mortar retail this year offers a glimpse into what we can expect this holiday season.

Since January 2024, monthly retail foot traffic has generally been on an upswing, with YoY visits up most months since January 2024 – and foot traffic higher than in 2022 or 2019 (pre-pandemic). This steady rise in retail visits signals strong consumer engagement in 2024, setting the stage for what may turn out to be a robust Q4. 

Monthly visits for retail compared to 2023, 2022 and 2019 shows a continuous upward trend

2024’s Special Calendar Day Pull 

Holiday promotions are kicking off early this year, offering customers more time to take advantage of deals and helping retailers navigate supply chain and logistics challenges. And though early sales are nothing new, 2024’s shorter holiday shopping season may suffuse them with more significance than ever. 

In 2023, Thanksgiving fell on November 23rd, leaving consumers with 32 days in which to do their holiday shopping. But this year, the holiday will be on November 28th, shortening the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas by five days. To make up for lost time, retailers and consumers alike may embrace an early shopping frenzy, potentially detracting from the power of milestones like Black Friday, Super Saturday, and Christmas Eve Eve.

But a look at consumer behavior during special calendar days this year suggests that traditional retail milestones still very much resonate with customers. On Mother’s Day, Memorial Day, and Labor Day, key industries saw YoY visit boosts, though the magnitude of the increases varied across categories.  

On Mother’s Day, for example, the beauty and wellness sector saw a 3.2% YoY increase in visits – highlighting the category’s enduring popularity for grateful offspring seeking to give mom a special gift. But on Memorial Day, department stores had their time in the sun, overshadowing other segments with a 7.2% YoY visit boost. 

Overall, these occasions proved particularly effective at driving consumer engagement this year. So whether by targeting big days like Black Friday or planning extended holiday campaigns, the 2024 holiday season gives retailers a great chance to benefit from consumer excitement.

Visits on special calendar days in 2024 show a boost across categories compared to 2023

Who Will Be the Retail Winners of the 2024 Holiday Season?

While all retail categories participate in the holiday season's flurry of sales, promotions, and limited-time offers, a select few shine especially bright during this period. These segments’ strong performance can often make up for quieter stretches earlier in the year.

Department stores are prime examples of holiday season winners. An analysis of weekly visits throughout 2023 shows that department stores experience one of the most impressive visits spikes of the holiday season. In the week leading up to Christmas, visits to department stores surged 113.4% compared to a 2023 weekly average – highlighting the segment’s success at positioning itself as a go-to destination for holiday shopping. 

Another standout during the holiday season is the hobbies, gifts, and crafts category. Unlike department stores, this category sees a more evenly-distributed rise in foot traffic across Q4, with peaks leading up to Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. This pattern reflects the popularity of holiday-related decorations and gifts, which drive increased visits during these festive periods.

These two powerhouse categories – department stores and hobbies, gifts, and crafts – are poised to dominate the 2024 holiday season, just as they did last year. And with consumer spending expected to rise and foot traffic showing no signs of slowing, both categories have significant potential for even greater success this year.

Department stores see the largest yoy boost in visits over the Holiday season compared to other categories

Looking Ahead 

The upcoming holiday season looks on track to be a big one. Despite the shorter shopping window, retailers are taking steps to maximize shopping opportunities with early promotions. And against the backdrop of this year’s robust consumer engagement – especially around milestones – Q4 is shaping up to be a festive season indeed. 

Will retailers rise to the challenge? Follow Placer.ai to see how this holiday season unfolds.

This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

Article
Trader Joe's: Continuing to Thrive in 2024
Dive into the location analytics to explore Trader Joe's nationwide performance and visitor trends in its home state of California.
Ezra Carmel
Oct 2, 2024
4 minutes

Grocery stores have been on an upward foot traffic trajectory as of late, and Trader Joe’s – with its cult-like following – is often near the top of the pack. 

We dove into the location analytics for the chain, exploring its nationwide performance and visitor trends in its home state of California, to uncover what’s behind the grocer’s ongoing success. 

Expanding Value

Despite positive signs that food-at-home inflation is stabilizing, many consumers are still feeling the pinch of high grocery costs. And with the help of its wide range of premium-quality, private-label products, Trader Joe’s offers an upscale experience at prices that are attractive to value-conscious grocery shoppers. 

Perhaps bolstered in part by several new locations, Trader Joe’s year-over-year (YoY) visit growth has outperformed the wider grocery category every month of 2024 so far. And the chain appears to be doubling down on its expansion strategy, with two dozen new stores planned through the end of 2024. 

By continuing to meet consumer demand for value and quality, and through the ongoing expansion of its fleet, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain foot traffic growth in the near future.

Trader Joe's year-over-year monthly visits compared to grocery category for Jan - Aug '24 show TJ's outperforms every month

TJ’s in California

In addition to competitive pricing and a growing real estate footprint, examining visitor dynamics in California – Trader Joe’s largest market by far – suggests that the chain may be driving success by becoming more shoppers’ principal grocery destination.

Between January and August 2024, California Trader Joe’s experienced YoY visit growth ranging from 3.2% to 11.1% – while YoY foot traffic to the wider grocery segment ranged from -2.7% to 4.6%. And over the same period, the share of Trader Joe’s visitors that also frequented other leading California grocery chains decreased significantly – indicating that TJ’s is making inroads with some of its toughest competition in the state. 

Between January and August 2023, for example, 50.1% of visitors to a California Trader Joe’s also visited Ralphs – a share that dropped to 47.1% during the equivalent period of 2024. Similar patterns could be observed for VONS, Sprouts Farmers Market, and even California’s grocery visit leader, Safeway.  

This suggests that a growing percentage of Trader Joe’s shoppers may be relying on the chain for more of their essentials – rather than visiting TJ’s in addition to a traditional grocery store.

The share of California Trader Joe's visitors visiting other brands has risen over the last year

A Surplus of Singles

Diving deeper into the demographic characteristics of visitors to California Trader Joe’s provides further insight into the consumers driving the chain’s statewide YoY visit gains. Analyzing California TJ’s trade areas with data from STI: PopStats reveals that Trader Joe’s drives an outsized share of visits from singles – living on their own or with roommates. 

Between January and August 2024, 26.5% of residents in Trader Joe’s California captured market lived in one-person households – compared to a statewide average of 22.9%. Meanwhile, 10.0% of the trade area residents were from non-family households – well above the state average of 8.0%. 

This could be partially due to Trader Joe’s ongoing investment in college town locations, as well as its fail-safe frozen food selection – a winner with novice cooks pressed for time or space for meal-prep. Plus, Trader Joe’s boasts cheerfully-themed, seasonal products that change every few months, which may be particularly likely to resonate with college students that follow seasonal rhythms of their own.

Trader Joe's draws a wider share of one person households than the statewide baseline in California

Wrapping it Up

Trader Joe’s continues to shine in the grocery space in part due to ongoing consumer demand for value and the chain’s expansion. And in California, a loyal and disproportionately single audience is a significant driver of foot traffic.

For updates and more grocery foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai

This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

Article
Bowlero and AMF: A Ten-Pin Knockout
Bowlero Corporation operates more than 350 bowling alleys nationwide, under a portfolio of brands that includes Bowlero and AMF – the company’s two largest chains. How have the bowling alleys performed this year? We dive into the data to find out.
Lila Margalit
Oct 1, 2024
3 minutes

Bowlero Corporation operates more than 350 bowling alleys nationwide, under a portfolio of brands that includes Bowlero and AMF – the company’s two largest chains. How have the bowling alleys performed this year? 

We dove into the data to find out. 

Summer Success

A look at year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends shows that after a January weather-induced slump and a lackluster three months between February and April 2024, YoY visits to both Bowlero and AMF Bowling Centers picked up major steam. Beginning in May, the two chains saw consistent monthly YoY visit growth ranging from 8.4% to 21.9%. 

Fleet expansions undoubtedly contributed to the chains’ summer traffic jumps –  but the visit increases were likely also driven by the reintroduction of Bowlero’s popular summer season pass – redeemable across the company’s portfolio of brands – which entitles customers to two free games daily at a center of their choosing. (A premium version can be used at any of the company’s locations.) The pass, which was valid from May 24th to September 2nd, proved to be such a runaway success this year that the company decided to launch a similar promotion for fall. This year’s record-breaking heat may have also contributed to the bowling alleys’ visit boosts – as consumers sought to cool down with indoor activities.

Bar chart showing bowling visits for Bowlero and AMF rising from Jan. '24 to May '24

AMF: In a League of its Own

Bowlero and AMF are owned by the same company, but customers seem to interact with each brand slightly differently. Between January and August 2024, AMF attracted a higher share of frequent visitors than Bowlero – perhaps indicating the brand’s positioning as a destination for more serious bowlers and league participants. 

On average, 21.4% of AMF’s visitors frequented the chain at least twice a month during the analyzed period – and 8.4% visited at least four times a month. Meanwhile, Bowlero, which touts itself as a “bowling/dining/nightlife experience,” drew smaller shares of frequent visitors – though 16.5% of Bowlero visitors turned out 2+ times a month on average during the analyzed period, and 5.7% visited at least four times a month.

Bar chart showing share of loyal visitors for Jan - Aug 2024 for Bowlero and AMF shows that AMF has higher shares of loyal visitors than bowlero

Bowlero: A Family Favorite

Bowlero, which attracts more casual bowlers than AMF, is also a destination for families. Between January and August 2024, Bowlero’s captured market featured a higher-than-average share of households with children – 28.5%, compared to 26.5% for AMF and a nationwide baseline of 26.9%.

AMF, for its part, was more popular among singles: During the analyzed period, 28.6% of its captured market was made up of one-person households – more than both the nationwide baseline and that of Bowlero (26.7%).

Bar graph shows that Bowlero draws more families while AMF draws more single person households

An All-American Sport

Still, though Bowlero and AMF attract somewhat different audiences, drilling down further into the psychographic segmentation of their captured markets shows that bowling really is an all-American favorite pastime. 

During the analyzed period, Bowlero’s was more likely to attract “Young Professionals” and “Near-Urban Diverse Families” – middle-class families living in and around cities – while AMF was more likely to attract upper-middle class, suburban families (“Upper-Suburban Diverse Families”) and households from “Blue Collar Suburbs”. But despite these differences, both chains attracted consumers from a variety of communities, highlighting their broad appeal.

Psychographic segments of Bowlero, AMF and Nationwide baseline show both chains attract a different, wide range of customer segments

Looking Ahead

Will consumers continue frequenting bowling alleys as the weather cools down – and will Bowlero’s autumn season pass be as successful as its summer one? 

Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven analyses to find out. 

This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

Article
Recreational Retail: Store Performance in 2024
We took a closer look at several players in the recreational retail space – including Barnes & Noble, Half Price Books, Hobby Lobby, and Michaels – to see how they are faring as 2024 draws to a close. 
Bracha Arnold & Lila Margalit
Sep 30, 2024
4 minutes

Recreational retailers – from hobby shops to arts and crafts retailers and bookstores – can play a role in fostering creativity and community.

We took a closer look at several players in the space – including Barnes & Noble, Half Price Books, Hobby Lobby, and Michaes – to see how they are faring as 2024 draws to a close. 

Bookstores: A New Chapter

One of the biggest challenges traditional brick-and-mortar retailers have faced in recent decades is the rise of online shopping, especially from Amazon – ironically, a company that started as a book retailer. Yet, in 2024, brick-and-mortar bookstores are defying expectations and thriving. Nearly every month this year, chains like Barnes & Noble and Half Price Books have seen more foot traffic at their stores than in 2023.

Despite closing several locations over the past year, Half Price Books experienced significant YoY visit increases between May and August 2024 – with only July seeing a YoY lag likely reflective of the chain’s substantial July 2023 seasonal uptick. Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble – which has been expanding its fleet – saw YoY foot traffic increases ranging from 8.0% to 17.2% throughout the analyzed period. Both chains finished off the summer with impressive 14.3% (Barnes & Noble) and 10.3% (Half Price Books) YoY boosts. 

Analyzing monthly fluctuations in visits to the two chains relative to a January 1, 2021 baseline shows just how important both the summer and holiday seasons are for the two bookstores. As brands that cater to both families and college students (see below), Barnes & Noble and Half Price Books see significant annual summer visit upticks in July and August – likely boosted by back-to-school shopping. But particularly for Barnes & Noble, the real magic happens during the holiday season, when people flock to the chain in search of gifts for loved ones. 

Bookstores’ strong performance shows that consumers are voting with their feet – embracing the special – and irreplaceable –reading and browsing experience provided by brick-and-mortar stores. And with a strong summer under their belts, Barnes & Noble and Half Price books have every reason to expect a highly successful Q4 2024. 

Reading Into The Demographics

Diving into trade area demographics shows that both Barnes & Noble and Half Price Books appeal to diverse audiences – outperforming nationwide baselines for everything from “Wealthy Suburban Families” to “Young Professionals” (a segment group that includes college students) and “Blue Collar Suburbs”. Still, there are differences between the two chains – offering opportunities for the retailers to tailor their marketing strategies to align with their respective visitors.

Barnes & Noble’s captured market trade area, for example, features a higher share of the middle-class “Near Urban Diverse Families” segment group – while that of Half Price Books features higher shares of the other analyzed segments. The chains’ different audiences can help them strategically curate their book assortments and offer a more tailored experience for their customers – a strategy that Barnes & Noble has placed at the center of its blueprint for growth.

Hobby Stores: Redesigning Their Futures

While bookstores have thrived in 2024, craft stores have faced a more mixed performance. Hobby Lobby and Michaels both experienced varying YoY foot traffic trends, with monthly visits tracking closely with 2023’s. Still, August 2024 visits were elevated by 7.9% and 6.0% at Hobby Lobby and Michaels, proving the significance of the back-to-school season.

Summer Sales Boosts

Weekly visit data further highlights the significant impact of the back-to-school season on craft retailers – which offer both classroom decor and school supplies. As the shopping season kicked in, Hobby Lobby and Michaels both experienced notable increases in foot traffic compared to their year-to-date (YTD) averages. 

The week of September 2, 2024 in particular was a strong one across both chains, with visits surging to their highest levels relative to the YTD average. Hobby Lobby experienced an 18.3% surge in visits and Michaels grew by 15.9%. This data emphasizes the critical role seasonality plays in driving traffic to craft retailers, particularly during key periods like back-to-school, when customers are stocking up on supplies. And since the category usually sees its biggest monthly spike during the holiday season (December 2023 visits to Hobby Lobby were 57.7% higher than the 2023 monthly visit average and 52.1% higher at Michaels), the chains seem poised to see more visitors in the coming months. October visits will also likely rise for the two chains, as customers go on the hunt for fall decor. 

Crafting Visitation Growth

Hobby and recreational stores have shown resilience and adaptability in 2024, with strong seasonal peaks and diverse customer bases fueling their visits. With the holiday season fast approaching, these companies seem set to continue experiencing foot traffic boosts for the rest of the year. 

Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news. 

This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

Article
Placer.ai White Paper Recap – September 2024
Read on for a taste of our findings from one of our white papers released in September 2024: The Healthcare Opportunity in Grocery, which explores wellness offerings' impact on grocery store visitation patterns.
Lila Margalit
Sep 26, 2024
3 minutes

In September 2024, Placer.ai released two white papers: The Healthcare Opportunity in Grocery and Pricing Strategies Driving Restaurant Visits in 2024. Below is a taste of our findings from The Healthcare Opportunity in Grocery – which dove into the data to explore the impact that wellness offerings can have on grocery store visitation patterns.

Uncovering the Healthcare Opportunity in Grocery

Today, many grocery stores offer a range of services – from primary and urgent care to dental and mental health care. In addition to providing an important community service, in-store clinics can boost foot traffic at chains, help health providers reach more patients, and allow shoppers to manage their health and home needs in one convenient trip. 

Health Clinics Lead to Healthy Foot Traffic Boosts

Analyzing foot traffic to grocery stores with and without in-store clinics shows that across chains, locations with on-site healthcare offerings drew more visits in H1 2024 than their chain-wide averages.

The Kroger Co., for example, has been a leader in in-store healthcare services since the early aughts. The company introduced its in-store medical center, The Little Clinic in 2003 – and today operates over 225 Little Clinic locations across its Kroger banner, as well as regional chains Dillons, Jay C Food Stores, Fry’s, and King Soopers.

And in H1 2024, the eight Dillons locations with clinics saw, on average, 93.0% more visits per location than the chain’s banner-wide average. Jay C, which offers two in-store clinics, also saw visits to these venues outpace the H1 2024 banner-wide average by 92.9%. For both chains, relatively small overall footprints may contribute to their outsize visit differences: Indiana-focused Jay C operates just 22 locations, all in the Hoosier State, while Kansas-based Dillons has some 64 locations.  

But similar patterns, if somewhat less pronounced, could be observed at Kroger (43.0%), Fry’s (19.2%), and King Soopers (16.5%) – as well as at H-E-B (14.5%), which boasts its own expanding network of in-store clinics. 

Convenience for All: Clinics Draw Families

An analysis of household compositions across the potential and captured markets of Kroger-owned stores with and without Little Clinic offerings suggests that families with children are extremely receptive to these services. 

In H1 2024, Kroger, King Soopers, Fry’s, Jay C, and Dillons all featured captured markets with higher shares of STI: PopStats’ “Households With Children” segment than their potential ones – highlighting the chains’ appeal for families. But the share of parental households in those stores with Little Clinics jumped significantly higher for all five banners. 

The share of families with children in King Soopers’ overall captured market stood at 28.3% in H1 2024, higher than the 27.2% in its potential one. But the households with children in the captured markets of King Soopers locations with Little Clinics was significantly higher – 30.6% – and similar patterns emerged at Jay C, Dillons, Kroger, and Fry’s. 

This special draw is likely linked to the clinics' focus on family health services like physicals, nutrition plans, and vaccines. The convenience of being able to take care of healthcare, grocery shopping, and pharmacy needs all in one go makes these stores particularly attractive to parents. And this jump in foot traffic shows the strategic advantage of incorporating healthcare services into the retail environment.

Read the full report here to learn more about the impact of healthcare services on grocery visits and customer loyalty. Are shoppers more or less likely to make repeat visits to grocery stores with healthcare services? And how does the addition of a clinic affect the demographic profile of a grocery store’s captured market

For more data-driven consumer research, visit our resource library.  

Article
A QSR and Fast-Casual Face-Off
As summer winds down, we dove into the data to explore consumer behavior at quick-service and fast-casual restaurants. How are they performing this year? And do consumers still interact differently with the two categories?
Lila Margalit
Sep 25, 2024
3 minutes

2024 has been a good year for fast-casual restaurants. Limited-time offers notwithstanding, rising QSR prices have narrowed the price gap between fast food and the more premium offerings of chains like Chipotle and sweetgreen. And with many fast-casual restaurants upping their convenience games with drive-thrus and other innovations, the distinction between the two segments has become increasingly muddied. 

So with summer winding down, we dove into the data to explore segment-level consumer behavior at quick-service and fast-casual restaurants. How are they performing this year? And do consumers still interact differently with the two categories? 

We dove into the data to find out. 

Fast-Casual Rocks Weekdays

During the first half of 2024, fast-casual restaurants experienced 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, while QSR held steady with a minor 0.4% uptick. As QSR favorites have gotten pricier, some budget-conscious diners have responded by trading up – embracing elevated fast-casual experiences that hit the sweet spot between quality and affordability. 

Drilling down deeper into the data, however, paints a more nuanced picture. On weekends, both QSRs and fast-casual chains experienced positive YoY visit growth (2.1% and 4.0%, respectively) – a significant difference, but not a tremendous one. On their days off, it seems, Americans are opting for a variety of value-oriented indulgences, and both segments are benefiting.

But on weekdays, fast-casual foot traffic grew by 2.8%, while QSR visits declined slightly by 0.2%. As the return-to-office (RTO) continues apace, more affluent office workers may be driving a weekday fast-casual renaissance.  

QSR Close to Home – Fast-Casual at the Office?

A look at driving distances to QSR and fast-casual restaurants provides further evidence that commuters may be contributing to fast-casual’s weekday YoY visit growth. 

In H1 2024, a higher share of QSR visits came from customers hailing from CBGs less than two miles away from the restaurants – suggesting that QSR visitors were more likely to frequent local, neighborhood venues. Meanwhile, a significantly higher percentage of fast-casual visits (63.6%) originated from CBGs between two and 30 miles away, compared to just 56.8% for QSR. These less-local visitors may be stopping by a fast-casual establishment during their lunch break or after work, on days when they commute to the office. 

Interestingly, QSRs and fast-casual restaurants drew similar shares of visitors from CBGs more than 30 miles away – perhaps suggesting that when traveling, consumers enjoy frequenting both segments. 

The $75K-$100K Sweet Spot

Given fast-casual’s higher-quality offerings, it may come as no surprise that these chains tend to attract a more affluent clientele than their QSR counterparts. During the first half of 2024, the Census Block Groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to QSRs (i.e. their captured market) had a weighted median household income (HHI) of $65.7K – compared to $78.0K for fast-casual chains. 

But medians only tell a part of the story – and a closer look at the segments’ visitor bases reveals a striking similarity between them: In H1 2024, the two categories’ captured markets featured nearly equal shares of a key demographic – households earning between $75K and $100K per year. This group includes both average-income families and those with a bit more money to spend. (According to STI:PopStats, the nationwide median HHI stands at $76.1K). And the ability of both quick-service restaurants and fast-casual chains to attract these consumers shows that despite their differences, the two segments do overlap – and both have plenty to offer today’s consumers.

Looking Ahead

Despite still-high prices, consumers are finding room in their budgets for affordable splurges – and fast-casual restaurants and QSRs (at least on weekends) are benefiting. How will the two segments continue to fare in the upcoming holiday season? And will their demographic middle ground expand as the line between the two categories continues to blur? 

Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out. 

This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.

Reports
INSIDER
Exploring the Car Dealership Space
Dive into the foot traffic and audience segmentation data to find out where the new and used auto dealership space stands in 2023.

Overview 

This report leverages location intelligence data to analyze the auto dealership market in the United States. By looking at visit trends to branded showrooms, used car lots, and mixed inventory dealerships – and analyzing the types of visitors that visit each category – this white paper sheds light on the state of car dealership space in 2023. 

Shifts in Auto Dealerships Visit Trends

Prior to the pandemic and throughout most of 2020, visits to both car brand and used-only dealerships followed relatively similar trends. But the two categories began to diverge in early 2021. 

Visits to car brand dealerships briefly returned to pre-pandemic levels in mid-2021, but traffic fell consistently in the second half of the year as supply-chain issues drove consistent price increases. So despite the brief mid-year bump, 2021 ended with overall new car sales – as well as overall foot traffic to car brand dealerships – below 2019 levels. Visits continued falling in 2022 as low inventory and high prices hampered growth.  

Meanwhile, although the price for used cars rose even more (the average price for a new and used car was up 12.1% and 27.1% YoY, respectively, in September 2021), used cars still remained, on average, more affordable than new ones. So with rising demand for alternatives to public transportation – and with new cars now beyond the reach of many consumers – the used car market took off and visits to used car dealerships skyrocketed for much of 2021 and into 2022. But in the second half of last year, as gas prices remained elevated – tacking an additional cost onto operating a vehicle – visits to used car dealerships began falling dramatically. 

Now, the price of both used and new cars has finally begun falling slightly. Foot traffic data indicates that the price drops appear to be impacting the two markets differently. So far this year, sales and visits to dealerships of pre-owned vehicles have slowed, while new car sales grew – perhaps due to the more significant pent-up demand in the new car market. The ongoing inflation, which has had a stronger impact on lower-income households, may also be somewhat inhibiting used-car dealership visit growth. At the same time, foot traffic to used car dealerships did remain close to or slightly above 2019 levels for most of 2023, while visits to branded dealerships were significantly lower year-over-four-years. 

The situation remains dynamic – with some reports of prices creeping back up – so the auto dealership landscape may well continue to shift going into 2024.

Used Cars Appeal to a Range of Consumers

With car prices soaring, the demand for pre-owned vehicles has grown substantially. Analyzing the trade area composition of leading dealerships that sell used cars reveals the wide spectrum of consumers in this market. 

Dealerships carrying a mixed inventory of both new and used vehicles seem to attract relatively high-income consumers. Using the STI: Popstats 2022 data set to analyze the trade areas of Penske Automotive, AutoNation, and Lithia Auto Stores – which all sell used and new cars – reveals that the HHI in the three dealerships’ trade areas is higher than the nationwide median. Differences did emerge within the trade areas of the mixed inventory car dealerships, but the range was relatively narrow – between $77.5K to $84.5K trade area median HHI. 

Meanwhile, the dealerships selling exclusively used cars – DriveTime, Carvana, and CarMax – exhibited a much wider range of trade area median HHIs. CarMax, the largest used-only car dealership in the United States, had a yearly median HHI of $75.9K in its trade area – just slightly below the median HHI for mixed inventory dealerships Lithia Auto Stores and AutoNation and above the nationwide median of $69.5K. Carvana, a used car dealership that operates according to a Buy Online, Pick Up in Store (BOPIS) model, served an audience with a median HHI of $69.1K – more or less in-line with the nationwide median. And DriveTime’s trade areas have a median HHI of $57.6K – significantly below the nationwide median. 

The variance in HHI among the audiences of the different used-only car dealerships may reflect the wide variety of offerings within the used-car market – from virtually new luxury vehicles to basic sedans with 150k+ miles on the odometer. 

Tesla Leads the Car Brand Dealership Pack

Visits to car brands nationwide between January and September 2023 dipped 0.9% YoY, although several outliers reveal the potential for success in the space even during times of economic headwinds. 

Visits to Tesla’s dealerships have skyrocketed recently, perhaps thanks to the company’s frequent price cuts over the past year – between September 2022 and 2023, the average price for a new Tesla fell by 24.7%. And with the company’s network of Superchargers gearing up to serve non-Tesla Electric Vehicles (EVs), Tesla is finding room for growth beyond its already successful core EV manufacturing business and positioning itself for a strong 2024. 

Japan-based Mazda used the pandemic as an opportunity to strengthen its standing among U.S. consumers, and the company is now reaping the fruits of its labor as visits rise YoY. Porsche, the winner of U.S New & World Report Best Luxury Car Brand for 2023, also outperformed the wider car dealership sector. Kia – owned in part by Hyundai –  and Hyundai both saw their foot traffic increase YoY as well, thanks in part to the popularity of their SUV models.

Diving into Local Markets 

Analyzing dealerships on a national level can help car manufacturers make macro-level decisions on marketing, product design, and brick-and-mortar fleet configurations. But diving deeper into the unique characteristics of each dealership’s trade area on a state level reveals differences that can serve brands looking to optimize their offerings for their local audience. 

For example, analyzing the share of households with children in the trade areas of four car brand dealership chains in four different states reveals significant variation across the regional markets. 

Nationwide, Tesla served a larger share of households with children than Kia, Ford, or Land Rover. But focusing on California shows that in the Golden State, Kia’s trade area population included the largest share of this segment than the other three brands, while Land Rover led this segment in Illinois. Meanwhile, Ford served the smallest share of households with children on a nationwide basis – but although the trend held in Illinois and Pennsylvania, California Ford dealerships served more households with children than either Tesla or Land Rover.  

Leveraging Location Intelligence for Car Dealerships

Leveraging location intelligence to analyze car dealerships adds a layer of consumer insights to industry provided sales numbers. Visit patterns and audience demographics reveal how foot traffic to used-car lots, mixed inventory dealerships, and manufacturers’ showrooms change over time and who visits these businesses on a national or regional level. These insights allow auto industry stakeholders to assess current demand, predict future trends, and keep a finger on the pulse of car-purchasing habits in the United States. 

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