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The sporting goods and sportswear category has had a rough couple of months. Two mainstays in the space – Bob’s Stores and Eastern Mountain Sports – filed for bankruptcy in June, and several sportswear and athleisure leaders posted disappointing results. So is the consumer demand for leggings and sneakers waning? Or is the category merely facing a temporary slowdown? We dove into the data to find out.
With budgets still tight, many shoppers are turning to value apparel and value athletic wear – and this trading down may be impacting the sporting goods and sportswear space: Q3 2024 visits to most sporting goods and athletic wear chains analyzed, including DICK’s Sporting Goods, Athleta, Academy Sports + Outdoor, and Hibbett Sports, remained at or moderately below 2023 levels. Still, the relatively minimal visit gaps indicate that demand for the category remains stable and may rise again with increased consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, lululemon athletica saw a 7.6% increase in YoY visits in Q3 2024 thanks to the company’s ongoing expansion.
But even as the sporting goods and sportswear category may be facing a temporary lull, diving into the demographics of the trade areas for the various retailers reveals the variety of sporting goods and sportswear consumers – showing the varied demand for the category.
The median household income within the trade areas of the five chains analyzed ranged from $54.8K for Hibbett Sports to $108.3K for Athleta. The share of households with children within the trade areas also varied among the chains: DICK’s Sporting Goods, and Academy Sports + Outdoors included significantly more households with children in their captured markets when compared with Athleta, lululemon, or Hibbett Sports.
It seems, then, that each chain appeals to a specific consumer segment – DICK’s and Academy Sports both serve families, although DICK’s attracts the higher-income households and Academy Sports draws more middle-income shoppers. Lululemon and Athleta both operate at the higher-end of the athletic wear spectrum, but Athleta shoppers tend to come from slightly more affluent areas with larger household sizes. And Hibbett has carved out a niche among lower-income consumers.
Demand for sportswear and gym gear may not be as strong as it was at the height of the pandemic when gyms were closed and consumers were doubling down on comfort. But the variety of audiences within the category leaders’ trade areas indicates that appetite for athletic wear and sporting goods is still widespread. And with Black Friday around the corner, these chains – and especially the higher-priced retailers among them – may well get a boost from price-conscious consumers looking to snag discounts at their favorite premium chains.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. Among the notable chains featured are Walmart, Target, Costco, Kroger, Ulta Beauty, The Home Depot, McDonald’s, Chipotle, Crunch Fitness, and Trader Joe's. The goal of the list is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining and shopping center segments.
Visits to the Placer 100 Index chains grew over the summer, as the back to school season drove a 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) jump in August 2024 visits. And visits in September 2024 were essentially on par with September 2023 levels – indicating that shoppers did not stay home to make up for retail’s summer surge, which could signal an increased willingness to spend ahead of the critical Q4.
And indeed, the fourth quarter of the year started strong, with the Placer 100 Index up 1.4% YoY in October 2024 – and with consumer confidence recently hitting a 9-months-high, the upcoming holiday season looks particularly promising.
Chili’s Grill & Bar topped the Placer 100 October chart in terms of both overall and per-location visit growth. The chain is still riding the wave of its Big Smasher Burger success, which sent visits skyrocketing following the product’s launch in late April. Warby Parker also saw impressive increases in overall visits and in visits per location as the chain continued opening new stores and adding eye exam offerings to existing locations.
Aldi and Crunch Fitness also saw growth in both metrics, with the increase in overall visits outpacing the strong increase in visits per location – pointing to a successful expansion strategy.
Hobby Lobby and Wendy’s also experienced increases in both overall visits and visits per location in October, with different paths leading to the two chains’ October successes.
Hobby Lobby’s visits follow clear seasonal patterns. The chain’s traffic usually peaks in December, but traffic already begins to rise in August as parents and teachers stock up on supplies and classroom decorations. Visit growth then ramps up throughout September and October as consumers purchase Halloween-themed costumes and decorations. So far, Hobby Lobby appears to be having a particularly successful year, with visits outpacing last year’s numbers since the summer – and with the chain’s busiest season of the year coming up, Hobby Lobby is positioned to close out the year with a bang.
Wendy’s, meanwhile, demonstrated how chains can create their own growth opportunities without aligning with existing calendar-driven spending occasions. The chain introduced the Krabby Patty Kollab menu items on October 2nd to celebrate the 25th anniversary of "SpongeBob SquarePants,” which sent visits surging. And YoY traffic was still up four weeks later, revealing the potential of LTOs to drive up dining traffic even in the absence of a specific seasonal boost.
Which chains will top the Placer 100 Index in November?
Visit placer.ai to find out!
Note: This post utilizes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1. and thus reflects minor adjustments in data from previous reports.
Amazon, Dell, Goldman Sachs, Walmart, UPS – these are just a few of the major employers that have been cracking down on remote work in recent months, some requiring their teams to be on-site full time.
So with summer behind us, we dove into the data to assess the impact these accumulating RTO mandates are having on the ground. Are offices continuing to fill up, or has the office recovery run its course?
In October 2024, office visits nationwide were 34.0% below October 2019 levels. And looking at monthly fluctuations in office foot traffic over the past five years shows that the RTO remains in full swing – with last month’s visits reaching the highest point seen since February 2020.
Digging down into regional data shows that in several major hubs – including Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Denver, Washington, D.C., Chicago, and San Francisco – October 2024 was the single busiest in-office month since COVID. And in Boston, Los Angeles, Miami, and New York, October was the second-busiest month, outpaced only by July.
Still, New York and Miami continued to lead the regional office recovery pack, with October 2024 visits in the two cities up to 86.2% and 82.6%, respectively, of 2019 levels. The two hubs, joined by Atlanta and Dallas, continued to outperform the nationwide average. And Houston, which lagged behind other major business hubs during the summer in the wake of major storms, reclaimed its position just under the nationwide baseline.
In October 2024, visits to office buildings in Washington D.C. increased 16.4% year over year (YoY), likely boosted by an RTO push meant to increase meaningful in-person work in federal agencies – though many government employees continue to telework. Boston, where office building occupancy is outperforming national levels, visits saw a 15.6% YoY uptick. And Atlanta, where major employers from UPS to NCR Voyix are requiring workers to show their faces five days a week, saw visits grow 13.8% YoY.
Nationwide, office foot traffic increased 10.1% YoY – showing that the return-to-office is still very much a work in progress.
Office attendance fosters creativity, mutual learning, and a sense of community – and can be critical for early-career success. But working from home at least some of the time offers greater flexibility that can improve employees’ work-life balance and in some cases, even enhance productivity. How will companies and employees continue to navigate the ongoing RTO?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven office recovery analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
With the holiday season just around the corner, we dove into the Placer.ai Mall Index to see how these shopping mainstays performed during the fall retail lull.
Following several months of roller-coaster visit trends – as August visits surged compared to last year and September visits dipped year-over-year (YoY) – mall traffic stabilized in October: Last month’s visits to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls generally matched 2023 visitation trends. The closing of the YoY visit gaps may indicate that consumers are once again ready to spend following the brief September slow-down – boding well for the upcoming holiday season.
Diving into the weekly trends offers even further reasons for optimism: YoY visits over the last two full weeks of October were positive for all three mall categories, with outlet malls in particular seeing the largest YoY increases. Outlet malls’ positive performance during the second half of the month may signal a comeback for the format, which has generally lagged behind indoor malls and open-air shopping centers in recent months.
Unlike certain retail categories that enjoy Halloween-driven visit surges either on the day itself or on October 30th, malls do not appear to benefit from the spooky holiday. Analyzing daily visits reveals that October 30th visits were on par with the daily October average, while October 31st traffic actually took a hit across the three mall formats in the Placer.ai Mall Index.
The dip is likely due to shoppers putting off their mall trips and instead choosing superstores and specialty retailers such as party supply stores and liquor shops for their holiday prep. Stores hoping to avoid the Halloween dip may want to offer special promotions around the day – and managers can also use this information to optimize their staffing schedules on October 31st.
Diving into hourly visit distributions provides even more data for those looking to optimize store performance. On Halloween, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers received a larger share of their visits before 4:00 PM and relatively fewer visits in the evening when compared to an average Thursday in October. So while some consumers did come out to malls in the morning, by evening, many shoppers may have been too busy scrambling to complete their Halloween costume or stock up on candy for the evening. Meanwhile, the Halloween dip in visits to outlet malls appears to have been evenly spaced throughout the day, with hourly visit shares on October 31st closely matching the average Thursday visit distribution patterns.
Store managers operating in indoor malls or open-air shopping centers may use this data to optimize staffing for the afternoon and evening Halloween shifts, while those working at outlet malls may want to reconsider their manpower needs for the day as a whole. At the same time, those looking to draw in more foot traffic may try offering promotions that appeal to early birds or trick-or-treaters.
With October in the rearview mirror, the holiday season is kicking off. How will malls perform?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
As essential sectors of retail face a slowdown in traffic momentum, the need for unique offerings and competitive advantages is more pressing than ever. Grocery retailers have benefited from increased visits, which has kept consumers engaged with chains and their offerings, even if it hasn’t always translated into larger basket sizes. In an increasingly competitive grocery market, retailers will need to consistently prove to consumers that they’re worth the extra visit.
Specialty grocers are better positioned to meet this challenge as value-focused grocery options become more constrained. Many local and regional chains have the added benefit of nimble operating models, enabling them to quickly adapt to consumer preferences. Beyond that, these specialty chains have deeply embedded themselves in the communities they serve. Looking ahead to 2025 and the growing recognition of physical stores’ importance, the strong relationships between specialty grocery retailers and consumers could help them thrive in this evolving environment.
One specialty chain that stands out in this context is Stew Leonard’s. Beloved in the Tri-State area—an area known for outstanding grocery chains—Stew Leonard’s combines product expertise with a unique in-store experience, famously described by The New York Times as “the Disneyland of Dairy Stores.” Imagine a grocery store with animatronics and birthday parties! In an era when we need more joy in retail, Stew Leonard’s sets the gold standard. With just eight locations, each with a large footprint and a strong connection to its local community, Stew Leonard’s offers a compelling package. A robust private label program, specialty departments, and high service levels make this chain stand out without relying on promotions or low prices.
According to Placer’s foot traffic estimates, Stew Leonard’s has effectively hedged against the slowdown in growth seen by other full-price grocery chains this year. Year-to-date, the chain has experienced a 3% year-over-year increase, compared to flat growth for full-price chains. Examining trends over time, Stew Leonard’s has shown consistent, sustainable growth throughout 2022 and 2023, with an acceleration in visits in the latter half of this year, driven by the opening of its new store in Clifton, NJ.
One reason for Stew Leonard’s success is the elasticity of its consumer base. Operating in the Tri-State area allows the chain to tap into wealthier consumer segments compared to national chains. According to PersonaLive audience segmentation, Stew Leonard’s has more than double the concentration of Ultra Wealthy Families compared to full-price grocery chains, along with a high percentage of Wealthy Suburban Families. The chain also attracts a notable share of Young Urban Singles, likely drawn by its strong offerings in prepared and specialty foods.
Stew Leonard’s Danbury, CT location offers insight into the brand’s appeal to shoppers. According to Placer’s trade area metrics, 35% of visitors to this store travel from more than 10 miles away, and nearly 10% come from over 30 miles, with clusters of visits from across the Northeastern corridor.
Store-level metrics also reveal strong loyalty among Stew Leonard’s visitors. Year-to-date in 2024, over a quarter of visitors to the Danbury location visited at least four times, and 35% visited three or more times. At the same time, there is a substantial share of visitors who appear to make special, less frequent trips to the store. These visitors show high cross-visitation rates with other grocers, such as Costco and ShopRite, as well as with Stew Leonard’s own operated Wine and Spirits locations.
Stew Leonard’s exemplifies a retailer that resonates with local consumers while offering an experience that attracts visitors from further away. Its combination of unique experiences, services, and products creates a shopping experience that goes well beyond traditional retail. Even as visits slow down across the sector, specialty grocers that remain hyper-focused on their unique offerings are likely to continue drawing in customers.
In late 2022, we suggested that fitness clubs in a post-pandemic environment were better positioned to withstand a slower macroeconomic climate than in the past. This was due to lower monthly fee business models, increased workout frequency among consumers, a shift toward younger members, and reduced seasonality. With Planet Fitness reporting its Q3 2024 results this week and ten months of visitation data available for 2024, we decided to revisit that thesis—especially in light of the company’s decision to raise the monthly price of its Classic Card from $10 to $15 in late June.
In the third quarter, Planet Fitness posted systemwide same-club sales growth of 4.3% (4.5% growth in franchisee clubs and 3.4% growth in corporate-owned clubs). Approximately 50% of the Q3 2024 comp increase was driven by net member growth, with the remaining balance attributed to rate increases. Our data indicates that the decline in visitors has been relatively modest since the Classic Card price hike. Management corroborated this, noting they “expected a slight decline in membership in Q3 2024, which was more than offset by the rate improvement on the Classic Card and a higher Black Card mix.”
During the quarter, 63.1% of Planet Fitness members were Black Card members (paying $25 per month), up from 62.1% in the same period last year. Management noted that new members are increasingly opting for the higher-priced Black Card membership, likely due to the added value of extra amenities, including access to all club locations, unlimited guest privileges, unlimited use of massage chairs and tanning beds, and discounts on cooler drinks, compared to the base membership.
Planet Fitness’ visit-per-location trends further support our thesis that fitness clubs are more resilient to macroeconomic pressures than they were pre-pandemic. In 2019, Planet Fitness averaged nearly 92,000 visits per location in the first quarter, dropping to 68,000 in the fourth quarter—a 25% decrease. This year, Planet Fitness again began with 92,000 visits per location in the first quarter and is projected to close the year with 76,000-78,000 visits per location. This would represent a year-end decrease in the mid-teens, indicating a more stable membership base and lower churn rates than in past years.
Fitness clubs still face challenges in today’s consumer environment. For instance, Equinox-owned Blink Fitness filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, citing pandemic-related deferred rent payments and other factors in its filing. (On a related note, Planet Fitness reportedly made a bid for Blink Fitness this week.) Nonetheless, Planet Fitness' resilience underscores that fitness club unit economics have evolved over the past several years, potentially making them better equipped to handle diverse consumer environments.
This report leverages location intelligence data to analyze the auto dealership market in the United States. By looking at visit trends to branded showrooms, used car lots, and mixed inventory dealerships – and analyzing the types of visitors that visit each category – this white paper sheds light on the state of car dealership space in 2023.
Prior to the pandemic and throughout most of 2020, visits to both car brand and used-only dealerships followed relatively similar trends. But the two categories began to diverge in early 2021.
Visits to car brand dealerships briefly returned to pre-pandemic levels in mid-2021, but traffic fell consistently in the second half of the year as supply-chain issues drove consistent price increases. So despite the brief mid-year bump, 2021 ended with overall new car sales – as well as overall foot traffic to car brand dealerships – below 2019 levels. Visits continued falling in 2022 as low inventory and high prices hampered growth.
Meanwhile, although the price for used cars rose even more (the average price for a new and used car was up 12.1% and 27.1% YoY, respectively, in September 2021), used cars still remained, on average, more affordable than new ones. So with rising demand for alternatives to public transportation – and with new cars now beyond the reach of many consumers – the used car market took off and visits to used car dealerships skyrocketed for much of 2021 and into 2022. But in the second half of last year, as gas prices remained elevated – tacking an additional cost onto operating a vehicle – visits to used car dealerships began falling dramatically.
Now, the price of both used and new cars has finally begun falling slightly. Foot traffic data indicates that the price drops appear to be impacting the two markets differently. So far this year, sales and visits to dealerships of pre-owned vehicles have slowed, while new car sales grew – perhaps due to the more significant pent-up demand in the new car market. The ongoing inflation, which has had a stronger impact on lower-income households, may also be somewhat inhibiting used-car dealership visit growth. At the same time, foot traffic to used car dealerships did remain close to or slightly above 2019 levels for most of 2023, while visits to branded dealerships were significantly lower year-over-four-years.
The situation remains dynamic – with some reports of prices creeping back up – so the auto dealership landscape may well continue to shift going into 2024.
With car prices soaring, the demand for pre-owned vehicles has grown substantially. Analyzing the trade area composition of leading dealerships that sell used cars reveals the wide spectrum of consumers in this market.
Dealerships carrying a mixed inventory of both new and used vehicles seem to attract relatively high-income consumers. Using the STI: Popstats 2022 data set to analyze the trade areas of Penske Automotive, AutoNation, and Lithia Auto Stores – which all sell used and new cars – reveals that the HHI in the three dealerships’ trade areas is higher than the nationwide median. Differences did emerge within the trade areas of the mixed inventory car dealerships, but the range was relatively narrow – between $77.5K to $84.5K trade area median HHI.
Meanwhile, the dealerships selling exclusively used cars – DriveTime, Carvana, and CarMax – exhibited a much wider range of trade area median HHIs. CarMax, the largest used-only car dealership in the United States, had a yearly median HHI of $75.9K in its trade area – just slightly below the median HHI for mixed inventory dealerships Lithia Auto Stores and AutoNation and above the nationwide median of $69.5K. Carvana, a used car dealership that operates according to a Buy Online, Pick Up in Store (BOPIS) model, served an audience with a median HHI of $69.1K – more or less in-line with the nationwide median. And DriveTime’s trade areas have a median HHI of $57.6K – significantly below the nationwide median.
The variance in HHI among the audiences of the different used-only car dealerships may reflect the wide variety of offerings within the used-car market – from virtually new luxury vehicles to basic sedans with 150k+ miles on the odometer.
Visits to car brands nationwide between January and September 2023 dipped 0.9% YoY, although several outliers reveal the potential for success in the space even during times of economic headwinds.
Visits to Tesla’s dealerships have skyrocketed recently, perhaps thanks to the company’s frequent price cuts over the past year – between September 2022 and 2023, the average price for a new Tesla fell by 24.7%. And with the company’s network of Superchargers gearing up to serve non-Tesla Electric Vehicles (EVs), Tesla is finding room for growth beyond its already successful core EV manufacturing business and positioning itself for a strong 2024.
Japan-based Mazda used the pandemic as an opportunity to strengthen its standing among U.S. consumers, and the company is now reaping the fruits of its labor as visits rise YoY. Porsche, the winner of U.S New & World Report Best Luxury Car Brand for 2023, also outperformed the wider car dealership sector. Kia – owned in part by Hyundai – and Hyundai both saw their foot traffic increase YoY as well, thanks in part to the popularity of their SUV models.
Analyzing dealerships on a national level can help car manufacturers make macro-level decisions on marketing, product design, and brick-and-mortar fleet configurations. But diving deeper into the unique characteristics of each dealership’s trade area on a state level reveals differences that can serve brands looking to optimize their offerings for their local audience.
For example, analyzing the share of households with children in the trade areas of four car brand dealership chains in four different states reveals significant variation across the regional markets.
Nationwide, Tesla served a larger share of households with children than Kia, Ford, or Land Rover. But focusing on California shows that in the Golden State, Kia’s trade area population included the largest share of this segment than the other three brands, while Land Rover led this segment in Illinois. Meanwhile, Ford served the smallest share of households with children on a nationwide basis – but although the trend held in Illinois and Pennsylvania, California Ford dealerships served more households with children than either Tesla or Land Rover.
Leveraging location intelligence to analyze car dealerships adds a layer of consumer insights to industry provided sales numbers. Visit patterns and audience demographics reveal how foot traffic to used-car lots, mixed inventory dealerships, and manufacturers’ showrooms change over time and who visits these businesses on a national or regional level. These insights allow auto industry stakeholders to assess current demand, predict future trends, and keep a finger on the pulse of car-purchasing habits in the United States.
