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The grocery category saw notable shifts in consumer behavior in 2025 as inflation and tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on household budgets. Analyzing consumer traffic trends for several grocery formats – including wholesale clubs, which serve as primary grocery destinations for many families – reveals how evolving consumer preferences shaped grocery performance in 2025 and highlights key lessons for grocers and CPG companies heading into 2026.
Like many retail categories in 2025, grocery was shaped by continued economic uncertainty and value-seeking behavior. But AI-powered location analytics shows that consumers also prioritized quality when forming a value perception in the grocery space.
The graph below shows that grocery visits increased across formats, likely reflecting consumers’ shift toward more meals at home as a way to save money in a persistently inflationary environment.
Fresh format grocers posted the strongest year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, perhaps due to their selection of prepared foods and salad bars as an alternative to eating out, as well as their emphasis on health and wellness – an emerging priority among grocery shoppers. Meanwhile, value grocers and wholesale clubs, known for their ability to deliver savings, consistently outperformed traditional grocers in YoY visit growth.
These patterns indicate that consumers are increasingly weighing up quality and price in the grocery aisle, a trend that is driving the expansion of private-label offerings.
As consumers substituted restaurant meals with more cost-conscious options, grocery stores also emerged as increasingly important destinations for quick, convenient lunches.
Analyzing relative visit share between the grocery category and quick-service restaurants (QSRs) shows that between 2024 and 2025, grocery stores claimed an increasingly large share of short midday visits – i.e. visits lasting less than ten minutes between 11:00 AM and 3:00 PM.
And while some of QSR’s relative decline in short lunchtime visits could be due to discontent with rising fast-food prices among highly value-conscious consumers, it also suggests that a growing share of consumers see grocery stores – where they can pick up ready-to-eat items – as convenient options during the lunch rush. Traditional grocers saw the largest increase in short midday visits (from 15.9% to 16.6%) while value and fresh format grocers saw more modest increases. Notably, the share of short midday visits to wholesale clubs was unchanged between 2024 and 2025 (2.1%), perhaps since these chains don’t offer the same pre-prepared and small-package options like other grocery formats.
These metrics underscore the strong demand for on-the-go meal options and single-serving, shelf-stable products that both grocery stores and CPG companies can provide.
Beyond the lunchtime rush, celebration-driven demand continued to play a central role in grocery traffic this year. Like in past years, Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – was by far the busiest grocery shopping day of the year, with category visits up 80.5% compared to the 2025 daily average. Several of the year’s other busiest grocery days similarly fell immediately ahead of major holidays, including New Year’s Eve, Easter, Mother’s Day, and the 4th of July, as consumers stocked up ahead of gatherings with family and friends.
Leading up to Christmas, grocery shopping appeared to be spread across several high-traffic days rather than concentrated on a single peak; Christmas Eve and December 23rd had nearly identical foot traffic boosts of 57.9% and 58.0%, respectively. And even December 22nd – three days before Christmas – stood out as one of the year’s busiest grocery shopping days, with visits running 28.9% above average for 2025.
Some consumers may have made multiple “re-stocking” grocery trips in the days leading up to Christmas – potentially driven by the presence of out-of-town guests requiring ongoing food replenishment – or visited multiple stores to secure specific ingredients for holiday meals.
Grocers could leverage this trend by stocking a wide range of holiday-specific ingredients and rotating promotions that encourage repeat visits ahead of Thanksgiving and Christmas.
The grocery landscape in 2025 was also shaped by distinct shopping preferences across demographic groups.
AI-powered captured market data combined with the STI: PopStats dataset shows that singles – defined as non-family and one-person households – heavily favored fresh-format grocers, while households with children were most likely to visit wholesale clubs and value grocers.
Grocers and CPGs can unlock growth by tailoring assortments and promotional strategies to their target audience – emphasizing bulk value and price-driven messaging for family shoppers, while leaning into curated selection, prepared foods, and convenience to engage singles.
Several consumer trends shaped the grocery space in 2025 – including holiday visit surges, the prioritization of value, and convenient on-the-go meals.
How will these trends shape the grocery space in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Even as return-to-office (RTO) mandates continue to accumulate, December operates on a different rhythm – shaped as much by holiday flexibility and inclement weather as by formal policy. We dove into the data to see how office attendance reflected these dynamics this year.
In December 2025, visits to office buildings nationwide were 33.1% below 2019 levels – 36.2% below when accounting for working days – the widest year-over-six-year (Yo6Y) gap seen in recent months on a per-working-day basis.
But the softness appears to reflect shifting work patterns rather than a stalled recovery. Despite slowing from recent months, December 2025 was still the busiest in-office December since COVID, suggesting that the slowdown was driven by seasonal rhythms rather than any substantive pullback in office attendance.
December has long followed a different in-office rhythm than the rest of the year – and despite return-to-office mandates, many companies likely relax on-site expectations during the holidays, allowing employees to work remotely while traveling or spending time with family. Much like the TGIF workweek, which sees a consistent drop-off in office activity on Fridays despite RTO pushes, the December dip may simply reflect the solidification of a new post-COVID seasonal norm.
Local factors also appear to have impacted December office attendance. Miami saw a visit gap of just 10.9% versus 2019, followed by Dallas at 18.8%. As warm-weather cities that also see the highest Friday office attendance among the analyzed markets, both may be less susceptible to holiday-adjacent work-from-home behavior.
New York City, by contrast, recorded a 19.6% visit gap, likely weighed down by harsher winter weather and an early, severe flu season. And Chicago trailed the pack with a 47.6% visit gap, pointing to a sharper seasonal pullback that may have been amplified by winter conditions, elevated flu activity, and workers opting to travel to warmer destinations during the holidays.
The year-over-year (YoY) analysis further reinforces that December’s softness is seasonal rather than a reflection of a true RTO slowdown. Even after adjusting for the number of working days, nationwide office visits rose 4.9% YoY, and every tracked market posted gains.
That said, growth remained uneven across major cities. San Francisco posted the strongest YoY gains, even as it continued to trail most other analyzed markets in overall office recovery – reflecting an ongoing vibe shift in a city once defined by post-pandemic pessimism. And with the city’s AI-driven leasing boom showing no signs of slowing, that momentum appears likely to carry into 2026.
Elsewhere, YoY gains were smaller than in San Francisco but still meaningful, pointing to steady progress across markets even as recovery paths vary by city.
The data suggests that December’s softening reflects predictable holiday-season flexibility rather than weakening momentum. And with several high-profile return-to-office mandates set to take effect in early 2026 – and other employers continuing to nudge attendance higher through quieter forms of “hybrid creep”– the broader office recovery appears poised to reassert itself in the new year.
For more data-driven office insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Back in April 2025, I channeled my inner Peter King and made nine predictions about retail's biggest players in my article "All The Things I Think I Think About Retail Over The Last Quarter."
Now, with eight months of hindsight and fresh data in my rearview, it's time for a reckoning. It is time to examine what I got right, what I got wrong, and, most importantly, what I learned from the overall exercise.
Or, put simply, I guess you could say that what lies in front of you, dear reader, is my assessment of how well I think I thought.
Grade: F (Spectacularly Wrong)
What I predicted: "Buchanan did a wonderful job instilling an omnichannel foundation at Michaels... Buchanan is the right man for the job at Kohl's. But I do not envy Buchanan. Not. One. Bit."
What actually happened: Well, I was right that I should not have envied him. Ashley Buchanan was fired for cause after just over 100 days in May 2025 following an investigation that revealed he violated company policies by directing Kohl's to engage in vendor transactions involving undisclosed conflicts of interest. Specifically, he had a romantic relationship with a vendor (Incredibrew CEO Chandra Holt) that he failed to disclose while pushing through deals with what has been reported as "highly unusual terms favorable to the vendor."
The twist: This wasn't about performance. It was about ethics. Kohl's board found Buchanan guilty of serious misconduct, and he was forced to forfeit $15 million in stock awards and repay $2.5 million of his signing bonus. The company is now on its fourth CEO in four years, with Michael Bender (a retail veteran from Walmart and PepsiCo) taking the helm in late 2025.
The reality: Buchanan's tenure at Kohl's will go down as one of the shortest and most ignominious CEO stints in retail history. I predicted he'd have his work cut out for him, but I didn't predict he'd be fired before he could even start the real work it would take to turn Kohl’s around.
The Lesson: Sometimes the biggest risk isn't the turnaround. It's the person at the helm. And, fortunately for Kohl’s, the Street appears to be responding to Mr. Bender, as the stock price has appreciated by a factor of four since he took over for Buchanan in April.
Grade: A+ (Nailed It)
What I predicted: "Costco held to a position that many others, including Walmart, Target, and Tractor Supply Company, have not... for all intents and purposes, at least initially, Costco appears to be holding strong to its principles and doing just fine."
What actually happened: I was spot on. Costco's Q3 2025 results immediately following the decision by shareholders to vote down a measure to assess DEI risks showed 8% revenue growth, U.S. comparable sales up 7.9% (excluding gas deflation), and net income up 13.2% year-over-year.
Even more telling: While Target hemorrhaged traffic following its DEI rollback, Costco gained during the same period, and took many shoppers from Target I might add.
Flash forward to year-end performance: Costco's fiscal year-end results, for its fiscal year that ended on August 31, 2025, demonstrated sustained strength. Net sales for Q4 increased 8.0% to $84.4 billion, while full-year sales reached $269.9 billion, up 8.1%. Comparable sales for the full year grew 5.9% (7.6% adjusted for gas and foreign exchange), with e-commerce sales exceeding $19.6 billion for the year, up 15%. Membership fee income, Costco's profit engine, also reached $5.32 billion, up 10.4% over the previous year.
Most recent results (Q1 Fiscal 2026): The momentum continued into the new fiscal year. For the quarter ended November 23, 2025, Costco reported net sales of $66.0 billion, up 8.2% year-over-year, with EPS of $4.50 beating analyst expectations of $4.27. Comparable sales rose 6.4%, while digitally-enabled sales surged an impressive 20.5%. Digital traffic jumped 24% and app traffic exploded 48% year-over-year.
But what about the stock?: While Costco's business has been phenomenal, Costco’s stock price tells a more nuanced story. After spectacular gains of 49% in 2023 and 39.6% in 2024, shares hit an all-time high of $1,078 in February 2025. However, at the time this article was written, the stock has since pulled back approximately 20% from that peak, ending 2025 down roughly 6% year-to-date and about 12% over the trailing twelve months, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 17% gain over the same period.
Zoom out: Over the past two years, Costco’s stock price is still far beyond where it was at the close of 2023, when it sat right around $700 per share. The stock currently trades around $850-860 per share at a forward P/E of approximately 46x, which analysts cite as the primary reason for the recent underperformance as opposed to any fundamental business weakness (Target, for comparison, trades at a P/E of 11-12x).
The Lesson: Principles and profits aren't mutually exclusive when backed by operational excellence. Costco proved that standing firm on values, combined with relentless execution, membership growth, digital transformation, and an unwavering focus on member value can strengthen your brand and drive superior business results. Short-term stock volatility driven by valuation concerns shouldn’t diminish the fundamental vindication of the strategy.
Grade: A (Nearly Perfect)
What I predicted: "Sprouts has done a masterful job rightsizing its store prototype... The one driving an 11.5% comp in Sprouts' most recent quarter? It still has a lot more room to grow."
What actually happened: Sprouts absolutely crushed it. In Q2 2025, Sprouts delivered a 17% net sales increase and 10.2% comparable sales growth, and followed that up in Q3 with another 5.9% comp on top of a big 2024 Q3 comp of 8.4% The company also plans to open 37 new stores in 2025 and saw e-commerce sales jump 21% in the most recent quarter.
Even more impressive: EBIT margins expanded from 6.7% to 8.1% in Q2 and also performed nicely in Q3 at 7.2%, demonstrating that Sprouts is achieving both top line and profitable growth. CEO Jack Sinclair's strategy of right-sizing stores, improving differentiation, and launching a loyalty program (rolled out in Q3) is firing on all cylinders.
The only minor caveat: Growth moderated slightly in Q3 (comp sales of 5.9%) and Q4 guidance calls for just 0-2% comp growth, suggesting some normalization. But with 464 stores across 24 states and record numbers at its back, Sprouts is still positioned for continued expansion.
The Lesson: When a retailer gets the fundamentals right, i.e. store format, location strategy, and customer experience, that’s when lightning gets caught in a bottle.
Grade: B+ (Appropriately Skeptical)
What I predicted: "One should take the results of tests like these (Macy’s First 50 store strategy) with a fine grain of salt... As the focus wears off, tests like these usually revert back to the mean. And, the mean... won't keep the Macy's Day parade balloons afloat."
What actually happened: Macy’s ended 2025 on a high note. Not necessarily a Celine Dion-like high note but a high note nonetheless. In its most recent quarter (Macy’s Q3), Macy’s Inc. posted its strongest performance in the last three years, with comps increasing 3.2% and also putting its two-year stack at a respectable 2.0%.
The First 50 stores, aka the Macy’s stores alluded to above that have received extra special attention from Macy’s, have consistently outperformed the rest of the Macy's chain throughout 2025, posting relative comparable sales gains while the overall chain has lagged behind. So much so that, by the end of Q3, Macy's had expanded the program to 125 stores (now called the "First 125").
But here's where my skepticism may still be justified: The overall Macy's namesake banner is still bleeding. Net sales for the namesake brand fell 2.3% in Q3, while comps for stores slated to remain open rose 2.3% and those at revamped stores (aka the “First 125”) rose 2.7%. Comparable sales for fiscal 2025 at Macy’s are now expected to be flat to up to 1%, compared to the previous flat to down 1.5% outlook from the previous quarter.
CEO Tony Spring, to his immense credit, is right that the investments are showing results. The stores with enhanced staffing, better merchandising, and improved visuals are indeed performing. However, I was also right that 50 (now 125) is a long way from 350, and the "mean" performance of the rest of the chain is still dragging the Macy’s namesake brand down. The First 50/125 strategy may indeed be working, at least for now, but anniversarying growth year-over-year is no easy feat.
The Lesson: The jury is still out on whether tactical improvements can overcome larger strategic challenges. Macy's First 50 could end up being the equivalent of putting premium gas in a car that needs a new engine. Right now, I am only willing to go so far as to say that the new paint job, however, is making a difference.
Grade: A- (Strong Directional Call)
What I predicted: "Bloomingdale's, unlike Macy's, could be onto something with its small format strategy... The majority of the country has no idea what a Bloomingdale's experience is like."
What actually happened: Bloomingdale's absolutely shined in 2025. Q4 comparable sales jumped 9% year-over-year on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis, making it the strongest performer in the Macy's Inc. portfolio. The smaller-format Bloomie's stores continued to show promising traffic patterns, with year-over-year visit growth outpacing the general department store industry by a wide margin.
CEO Tony Spring has resisted calls to spin off Bloomingdale's, citing synergies, but the performance gap between Bloomie's and Macy's continues to widen, validating my assessment that "Bloomie's is a different story," both as an overall concept and as a smaller store idea.
The Lesson: Scarcity creates value. When you only have 33 full-line stores, a smaller format can be a growth vehicle rather than a cannibalizer, so I expect to see more of the small format Bloomie’s stores in 2026 and 2027.
Grade: A+ (Depressingly Accurate)
What I predicted: "Target's former beachheads are now all under siege... Something is causing the temperature of Target's porridge to feel just not quite right... Its new $15 billion growth plan is potentially a step in the right direction. However, I worry that, when one looks under the covers of that plan, all he or she will find is the same owned brand gobbledygook."
What actually happened: Target imploded. According to CNBC, the retailer posted negative comp store sales declines in every quarter of 2025, with Q2 comp sales down 1.9% and then down another 2.7% in Q3. Brian Cornell announced he's stepping down as CEO in February 2026 after 11 years, to be replaced by COO Michael Fiddelke, an insider who helped develop the current struggling strategy.
The stock has been decimated: down 49% over five years (while Walmart is up 118% and Costco up 135%), and down 30% in the past year alone. Analysts now rate Cornell as one of the worst CEOs in America, with 28 of 38 analysts rating Target as Sell or Hold.
My concerns about the $15 billion growth plan were prescient. It's heavily dependent on the same owned-brand strategy that's been failing, and the recent DEI rollback in January 2025 resulted in a boycott that, as we discussed above, cost Target shoppers this year.
Activist investors are now calling for an independent board chair, and the succession to Fiddelke has been widely criticized as more "entrenched groupthink" from a company that's lost touch with consumers.
The Lesson: Don’t believe the hype. When you're the goldilocks story whose success rested upon competitors going bankrupt and being one of the few available one-stop-shop options during the pandemic, eventually borrowed time runs out.
Grade: A (Excellent Timing)
What I predicted: "Wayfair's CEO Niraj Shah is as shrewd as they come, and he may just be betting on stores right as a big tailwind is ready to hit his back."
What actually happened: Wayfair announced not one, not two, but FOUR new large-format stores since my article. Atlanta (early 2026), Yonkers (2027), Denver (late 2026), and Columbus (late 2026, testing a smaller 70,000 sq ft format). The inaugural Wilmette, Illinois store, also appears to be what I would call a success. According to Wayfair:
Even more validating: The home furnishings industry is due for a rebound (at some point), and Wayfair's physical retail push could be timed exactly as that rebound crests.
The Lesson: Sometimes the best time to invest is when everyone else is pulling back, which is why Niraj Shah's timing and execution, I predict, will one day be viewed as a stroke of genius in the annals of retail history.
Grade: C (Directionally Correct, But Still Needs Improvement)
What I predicted: "Given that Niccol (Starbucks’ CEO) has only been in his role since September, these results at least have the aroma of an early turnaround."
What actually happened: This one's complicated. Starbucks' turnaround under Brian Niccol has shown signs of life but it's been slower and messier than hoped. For most of fiscal 2025, same-store sales continued to decline (down 1% in Q2 and down 2% in Q3). However, Q4 2025 finally delivered positive global comparable sales growth for the first time in seven quarters.
The bright spots: North America comps improved to flat in Q4, and U.S. comp sales turned positive in September and stayed positive through October. Its "Green Apron Service" initiative, Starbucks says, is showing early promise, with pilot locations seeing transaction growth and service time improvements and its August rollout also being correlated to the recent improvement in results.
The challenges: The turnaround required significant corporate restructuring, store closures, labor strikes, and China being moved to a joint venture. Revenue was up modestly, but adjusted EPS fell significantly for most of the year.
My prediction about Niccol "righting the ship" was directionally correct. By late 2025, momentum has been building. But it's been a longer, harder journey than the "early aroma" suggested. While some critics have also labeled him among 2025's "worst CEOs" for the ongoing struggles, that moniker, in my opinion, is incredibly harsh and unfounded so early in his tenure, and especially when Buchanan and Cornell have about a 50 furlong lead as we round the turn on 2025.
The Lesson: Turnarounds in retail are hard, even with proven talent. Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" strategy may in fact be working. It may just take longer than investors had hoped.
Grade: A+ (Absolute Bullseye)
What I predicted: "For the past six years, Sam's Club has sat atop my list as the most innovative retailer in America not named Amazon... The combination of a digital-first shopping experience and a growing percentage of younger people shopping in its stores means that Sam's Club is positioned to create the most one-to-one personalized shopping experience out there."
What actually happened: Sam's Club absolutely dominated in 2025. Q4 comparable sales (excluding fuel) were up 6.8%, e-commerce sales grew 24%, and membership income achieved five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth (up 12.5% in Q4). The numbers I cited, specifically in my April article, 1 in 3 shoppers using Scan & Go, 63% growth in Gen Z membership over two years, and 14% growth in millennial membership, appear to be fueling the fire.
For example, Sam’s Club announced ambitious plans in April to double memberships and more than double sales and profit over the next 8-10 years. Its Member's Mark private label brand represents 50% of its merchandise sales growth over the last two years. Its digital penetration is at a record high, with e-commerce now accounting for an astounding 18% of sales and expected to reach 40% in the next few years, a Sam’s Club goal that 1) if true and 2) if accomplished, will leave many retailers eating Sam’s dust.
Oh, and one more thing, Sam's Club also surpassed Costco in the American Customer Satisfaction Index because of its technology innovations like Scan & Go and its AI powered exit archways. And its new Grapevine, Texas store will serve as a laboratory to push the boundaries of this tech even further.
Everything I said about Sam's Club being "the retailer more people should be talking about" was vindicated. They're crushing it across every metric. You name it. Sales, innovation, membership growth, younger demographics, retail media potential. Sam’s has simply been hitting it out of the park.
The Lesson: Innovation doesn’t happen overnight. It comes from a hell or high water commitment to R&D year-over-year, something for which many retailers don’t have the stomach.
| Prediction | Grade | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Kohl's / Buchanan | F | Fired for ethics violations in 100 days |
| Costco DEI Stance | A+ | Revenue up 8%, vindicated completely |
| Sprouts Growth | A | 17% sales growth, margin expansion |
| Macy's First 50 | B+ | Working but not enough to save chain |
| Bloomingdale's Small Format | A- | 9% comp growth, clear differentiation |
| Target Struggles | A+ | Stock down 49%, CEO stepping down |
| Wayfair Physical Retail | A | 4 new stores announced, Illinois success |
| Starbucks Turnaround | C | Turning positive but slower than hoped |
| Sam's Club Innovation | A+ | 6.8% comps, crushing all metrics |
Overall GPA: 3.22 / 4.0 (B+)
Looking across these nine predictions, several themes emerge:
1. Innovation Without Execution Is Worthless – Target had digital tools, owned brands, and a PR-loving CEO. But without operational excellence and strategic clarity, none of it mattered. Meanwhile, Sam's Club, Costco and Sprouts all executed relentlessly on clear strategies.
2. Values Can Be a Competitive Advantage – Costco proved that standing firm on DEI didn't hurt business. It helped. While competitors retreated, Costco gained traffic, membership loyalty, and shareholder confidence.
3. Physical Retail Isn't Dead. It's Just Evolving – Wayfair, Sam's Club, and even Bloomingdale's showed that physical stores still matter, and especially when they're reimagined around experience, convenience, and brand differentiation.
4. Turnarounds Take Time – Starbucks and Macy's both demonstrated that fixing broken operations is harder and slower than expected. Even great CEOs need patience and resources.
5. The Gap Between Winners and Losers Is Widening – There's less middle ground than ever. You're either innovating and winning, or you're falling behind.
So, what do I think of what I thought?
I think I’ll take it. In this topsy turvy year of retailing, I will take a B+. The Stanford-educated Phi Beta Kappa in me is admittedly kind of pissed about the grade, but given that my average was taken down by a tawdry love drama not seen since a Friday evening with the Lifetime channel, I can still rest easy going into 2026.
More importantly, these predictions remind me why I love this industry. Retail is theater. It's strategy. It's execution. It's about understanding people, both customers and, let’s not forget, leaders and corporate cultures, too. Sometimes you get surprised (for example, who knew coffee would impact two of my predictions this year!), but more often than not, the fundamentals win out.
The retailers that focused on customer experience, operational excellence, and genuine innovation, e.g. Costco, Sprouts, Sam's Club, Wayfair, are continuing to thrive. The ones that lost their way strategically or culturally (yes, I’m looking squarely at you, Target), along with the ones in transition, like Starbucks, are showing that turnarounds are possible but that the road will also be long and difficult.
As we head into 2026, I'm watching to see if these trends accelerate. Will Target's new CEO make meaningful changes, or will it be more of the same? Can Macy's First 125 strategy actually scale? Will Wayfair's physical store expansion continue to exceed expectations? And more pressing: Which retailers will inspire my predictions for 2026?
Stay tuned. Because I don’t just think I think we're in for another interesting year. I know I know we are.
Limited-service restaurants faced a challenging landscape in 2025, with many price-sensitive consumers pulling back on dining out in favor of grocery prepared meals and brown-bag lunches. Traffic was harder to come by, and everyday demand softened across much of the category.
Even so, chains found creative ways to stand out. We dug into the data behind the busiest weeks of the year for quick-service and fast-casual restaurants to understand what actually moved traffic – and which strategies are most likely to help brands compete in what’s shaping up to be another value-conscious year.
Everyday value became table stakes across limited service in 2025, with $5 meals, bundles, and loyalty pricing no longer serving as clear differentiators. Yet unsurprisingly, freebies and truly memorable discounts still drew crowds.
The chains featured in the chart below all saw their highest weekly traffic peaks during promotions that felt distinctive, easy to understand, and clearly worth acting on. Some – like Dairy Queen’s Free Cone Day and Dave’s Hot Chicken’s Free Slider Day – involved no-purchase-necessary giveaways. Others relied on steep, attention-grabbing discounts, such as Whataburger’s Anniversary 75-cent burger and Pizza Hut’s $2 Tuesday promo, or culturally timed activations like Chipotle’s Stanley Cup–inspired hockey jersey BOGO.
For 2026, the takeaway is clear: Discounting still works, but the offers likely to truly motivate consumers are the ones that stand out from the everyday value they already expect.
Fortunately for restaurants, however, deep discounts and giveaways aren’t the only way to draw crowds - if they were, the economics wouldn’t be sustainable for long. In 2025, culture-driven moments came surprisingly close to matching the power of freebies, without the same margin trade-offs.
Take Krispy Kreme, for example. The chain’s annual National Donut Day promotion – including a no-purchase-necessary free donut and a $2 dozen with the purchase of 12 more – produced the chain’s largest single-day visit spike of the year (+219.7% versus an average day on June 6th, 2025) and helped push weekly visits to a yearly high.
But Krispy Kreme’s Back to Hogwarts collection which launched on August 18, 2025, generated a more sustained lift that nearly matched National Donut Day’s impact at the weekly level. While the campaign did include a free donut giveaway on Saturday, August 23rd for fans representing their favorite house, the data shows the surge wasn’t driven by the freebie alone: Traffic jumped 40.7% above an average Monday on launch day, compared with a 30.9% lift over an average Saturday on the day of the giveaway.
At McDonald’s and Burger King, too, pop-culture tie-ins dominated the promotional calendar. For both chains, the week of December 1st emerged as the busiest week of 2025, and also delivered the largest YoY weekly visit increase.
At Burger King, the lift came from the chain’s SpongeBob Movie Menu – starring the Krabby Whopper – launched on December 1st ahead of the film’s December 19th release. The promotion drove an 18.4% YoY traffic increase, with traffic – largely flat or down since September – remaining elevated in the weeks that followed.
At McDonald’s, momentum was fueled by a holiday-themed Grinched Menu, which arrived on the heels of the fast food leader’s highly successful Boo Bucket merchandise drop in October. The Boo Buckets drove McDonald’s second- and third-largest year-over-year visit spikes during the weeks of October 20 and 27, and the Grinch Meal built on that lift, pushing visits higher yet during the week of December 1st and sustaining momentum through the rest of the month.
The lesson here is twofold: Well-timed promotions tied to widely recognized cultural moments can still drive outsized traffic on their own, as Krispy Kreme and Burger King’s activations showed. But McDonald’s performance also underscores the value of sequencing – using one successful launch to carry momentum into the next.
Speaking of timing and sequencing, Starbucks’ viral Bearista offering, launched strategically just before the Brand’s iconic Red Cup Day, shows how well-timed promotions can compound impact.
Red Cup Day during the week of November 10th was Starbucks’ busiest day of 2025. But the week of Bearista (November 3rd) came awfully close – and delivered the brand’s largest YoY weekly visit increase of 2025. Just as importantly, the Bearista launch helped build visit momentum, setting the stage for what ultimately became Starbucks’ biggest Red Cup Day ever.
Consumers lining up to pay $30 for the Bearista also challenged another long-held assumption about QSR traffic in 2025: that offerings have to be cheap to deliver results. What makes this especially notable is that Bearista wasn’t tied to a movie release or external cultural IP. It was brand-first, premium-priced merchandise that still drove traffic at scale. And while not easily replicated, Starbucks’ Bearista success shows that scarcity, storytelling, and timing can unlock value beyond low-price promotions.
If you’ve gotten this far, you might be wondering: What about food? Don’t people still go to restaurants to eat – and aren’t craveable menu items supposed to drive traffic?
The answer is yes. Amid all the noise around discounts, collaborations, and merchandise, food still mattered in 2025. At Popeyes, the June 2nd launch of Chicken Wraps, priced accessibly at $3.99, drove the chain’s busiest week of the year. While wraps weren’t totally new to Popeyes’ menu, this rollout was framed as a value-forward, easy-to-understand innovation at a moment when affordability mattered – and consumers responded.
At Taco Bell and KFC, food-driven traffic spikes leaned more heavily on nostalgia. Taco Bell’s limited-time revival of Cheesy Street Chalupas and Quesaritos lifted visits roughly 8% above average, while KFC saw an even larger jump (11.4%) with the return of Potato Wedges and Hot & Spicy Wings. These weren’t experimental launches, but deliberate re-releases of proven favorites, giving diners something familiar and a reason to act quickly.
Together, these examples show that even in a crowded promotional landscape, menu remains a core traffic lever – and that clearly positioned items can rise above the noise without flashy add-ons.
The busiest weeks of 2025 show that even in a tough, value-conscious environment, limited-service restaurants still have multiple, proven ways to drive traffic. From clear deep discounts that rise above the noise to culture-led moments, narrative-driven merchandise, and well-timed menu strategies also delivered some of the year’s strongest results.
As QSRs and fast-casual chains look ahead to 2026, the data suggests that winning won’t hinge on any single tactic, but on choosing the right lever for the right moment, and executing it clearly enough to cut through a crowded landscape.
For more data-driven dining insights, follow Placer.a/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Indoor malls outperformed both open-air centers and outlet malls on a full-year basis as the only format to post visit gains during all four quarters – signaling a shift from recovery into growth.
Open-air shopping centers came in second – and though the format trailed indoor malls on a full-year basis, open-air shopping centers came out on top over the holidays, with Q4 visits up 2.0% year over year (YoY) and December traffic up 1.5%. This seasonal strength can be attributed to the format's sit-down and alcohol-forward dining options, which attract social holiday visits, as well as layouts that support quick trips and easy access to both essential and discretionary retail.
Meanwhile, outlet malls remained the weakest-performing format throughout 2025, with an annual traffic decline driven in part by a 1.1% drop in visits during the critical holiday season. This softness could reflect a broader shift in value perception. Price-conscious consumers may be increasingly weighing time cost alongside monetary savings, and long drives can offset the appeal of discounted pricing – particularly when promotions and loyalty incentives are widely available online and in traditional retail formats. To win consumers back, outlet malls may need to reduce the perceived time tradeoff by strengthening food and entertainment offerings and positioning themselves as curated, experience-driven value destinations rather than purely price-led ones.
Malls continue to resonate with a wide range of family segments, though different formats appeal to different household profiles. Across formats, higher-income and suburban family segments over-index among mall visitors. Indoor malls and open-air centers attract a disproportionate share of ultra-wealthy and affluent suburban households, underscoring malls’ ongoing relevance for consumers seeking family-friendly activities and experiences. Outlet malls, meanwhile, skew more heavily toward near-urban diverse families, reflecting their positioning as value-oriented destinations rather than lifestyle hubs.
At the same time, young professionals also play a meaningful role in mall traffic, over-indexing across all formats relative to their 5.8% share of the national population.
Across all formats, mall visitors also frequented mass merchants, big-box retailers, and off-price chains at high rates in 2025, underscoring that mall trips are often embedded within broader, multi-stop shopping routines rather than standing alone.
More than 70% of visitors across all mall formats also visited Walmart and Target at some point in 2025, and over half of mall visitors also visited Dollar Tree – underscoring how deeply mass merchants and discount chains are embedded in consumers’ retail lives. This indicates that malls face stiff competition as an everyday shopping destination. Malls that want to pull ahead in 2026 may focus on differentiating themselves from superstores by leaning into experiences and services that mass merchants cannot efficiently deliver – using tenant mix and programming to capture discretionary spend beyond routine retail needs.
Of the three formats, outlet malls showed the highest overlap with value-oriented and off-price chains, highlighting both their competitive pressure and their opportunity to redefine value. As discounted retail becomes increasingly ubiquitous, outlets can differentiate by extending value beyond merchandise—pairing sharp pricing with affordable dining, family-friendly entertainment, and experience-led programming that reinforces the outlet trip as a high-value day out, not just a bargain hunt.
Mall success in 2026 will likely hinge on maximizing the quality and purpose of each visit. Indoor malls are best positioned to double down on experiential retail, entertainment, and family-friendly programming that supports longer dwell times and higher discretionary spend. Open-air centers can continue to capitalize on convenience and dining-led visitation by optimizing for short, high-intent trips – particularly during peak seasonal periods.
For outlet malls, the opportunity lies in expanding the definition of value. As discounts become easier to access everywhere, outlets can differentiate by applying value thinking to food, entertainment, and experiences – turning the outlet trip into an affordable day out rather than a pure bargain hunt. Across all formats, operators and retailers that align tenant mix, layout, and programming with how consumers actually shop – across channels and formats – will be best positioned to capture wallet share in an increasingly fragmented retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
At the start of 2025, expectations for retail were optimistic – focused on replacement cycles, a rebound in discretionary spending, and continued consumer strength. In reality, the year has been far more disruptive than that early narrative anticipated.
Consumers faced ongoing pressure from economic uncertainty, weather disruptions, employment concerns, and declining confidence. With consumers more connected to real-time news than ever, shoppers adjusted their retail decisions quickly as conditions changed, often taking a cautious, defensive approach to spending.
The discretionary side of the retail industry, also known as general merchandise, has shouldered most of the impact of changing consumer dynamics. As consumers looked to create a balance between their needs and their wants, oftentimes the “needs” won out. In general, visitation to non-discretionary categories has remained relatively stable, while there has been more volatility across the discretionary space.
The non-discretionary retail sectors benefited from value based models like value grocery chains and dollar and discount stores. Warehouse clubs emerged as the new one-stop-shop for consumers as superstores struggled to maintain in-store traffic. And fresh format grocery stores still found success with wealthier consumers and new store formats.
Despite the challenges overall, there have still been pockets of growth and emerging trends that have shaped the discretionary sector. And, despite a lot of stormy weather, consumers continue to maintain some level of resilience. In particular, the holiday season has been shaped by this unforeseen optimism despite the circumstances of many shoppers.
Here’s a look back at the trends and stories that shaped discretionary categories in 2025:
One of the most stark examples of the current retail climate continues to be the bifurcation of consumers. The retail industry, particularly in discretionary categories, has been bolstered by wealthier shoppers, as lower and middle income families become more discerning and stretched financially. This trend became more pronounced throughout 2025, and the second half of 2025 saw a large pullback by “aspirational” shoppers.
The luxury market has been greatly impacted by this trend, as visits by wealthier consumers haven’t been able to offset the decline by more infrequent, aspirational visitors. Overall visit growth to luxury apparel and accessories retailers slowed in Q3 when compared to 2024 levels, and those trends have continued into the holiday season.
According to Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive consumer segmentation, 2025 has seen a higher distribution of visits by Ultra Wealthy Families, Sunset Boomers, and Upper Suburban Diverse Families as there has been a contraction of visits by Near-Urban Diverse Families, and City Hopefuls. Aspirational shoppers who may have once saved for or set aside disposable income for luxury purchases may have had to shift those funds elsewhere as lower income shoppers become more financially strained.
Retailers are going to face more pressure next year as this bifurcation continues and consumer spending becomes more polarized. Full-price brands and those that fit somewhere in the middle are going to need creative solutions to court consumers, especially those who have become much more discerning this year.
The American retail landscape has long been associated with the wide array of specialty retailers that operate all across the country. Whether mastering American fashion, stories, or experiences, retailers have ingrained themselves into the fabric of consumers’ celebrations, gifts, and leisure time.
For many retailers that have led both media coverage and performance in 2025, success has come down to one simple concept: going back to their roots. Retail brands have always been synonymous with specialties, whether it be quality, styling, service, or expertise. Brands that have once again harnessed these elements to repair relationships with consumers and cement their brand value have been able to circumvent a lot of the economic challenges this year.
The return of Gap has been well documented this year, but it bears repeating because it has been remarkable. While all Gap Inc. brands are somewhere along the road to recovery, the flagship brand has been most impressive. Traffic in 2025 was up 1.1% compared to 2024, which is impressive after years of declines. The brand has focused its marketing and merchandising around the return of trend-right, high quality and affordable American fashion, and shoppers have bought in wholeheartedly.
Nordstrom, another top pick for 2025, cemented its place as a category expert and customer service titan. Whether it be the shoe department, the cafe, or the in-store experience, Nordstrom is once again a top-of-mind destination for shoppers, especially those who have higher levels of disposable income. The chain is benefiting from this return to form, with visits up 2.3% in 2025.
Finally, against all odds, Barnes & Noble has continued its momentum this year. As the industry to be first disrupted by e-commerce, the bookstore category has faced an uphill climb after losing major retail chains and a strong digital presence. Barnes & Noble has been able to harness the power of in-store experience to cement itself as part of the consumers’ communities. As shoppers increasingly look to the retail industry as a third place for socializing, the chain has been able to adapt to keep customers in stores for longer.
With uncertain economic conditions, consumers have been much more discerning about discretionary purchases in 2025 – but still crave the concept of treating themselves. Self-gifting has been on the rise for the past few holiday seasons, but 2025 signaled that even when consumers are more intentional about purchasing, they still crave that joy of the shopping experience.
Small indulgence categories have been on the rise or rebound since the second half of 2025. Beauty, in particular, saw a turn in its business as consumers became more discerning. Beauty has always been synonymous with challenging economic times for consumers, with the “lipstick index” often seen as a barometer for consumer sentiment. Beauty’s rebound could very well continue into 2026 if consumers look for those small ways to update their look and satisfy their need to shop.
Collectibles can also fit into the small indulgence category, especially with 2025’s hottest item, Labubu. Although the viral sensation from retailer POP MART became almost impossible to secure, the price point was attainable for most consumers. Similarly, Trade Joe’s viral mini tote bag also comes at a low price point, at $2.99, and consumers continue to flock to the brand’s stores to purchase during the bag's drops in spring and fall.
The pet category has also had a strong 2025 performance, which can somewhat be attributed to the small indulgence trend. Consumers tend to pull back on self-purchasing, but will often limit the impact felt by pets or children. The pet category has not seen much change in consumer behavior and this trend is likely to continue into 2026.
At the start of 2026, discretionary retail has not so much rebounded as recalibrated. The year revealed a consumer who is highly informed, highly selective, and increasingly comfortable walking away – forcing retailers to compete not just on price or promotion, but on relevance. The winners were not those that chased volume at all costs, but those that clearly articulated why they exist, who they serve, and what role they play in consumers’ lives.
Looking ahead to 2026, the forces that shaped this year – income bifurcation, cautious spending, and the prioritization of emotional value – are likely to intensify. Retailers operating in the middle will face the greatest test, as consumers continue to polarize between value-seeking and premium experiences. Growth will likely come from precision: sharper assortments, clearer brand positioning, and formats that respect both consumers’ financial realities and their desire for moments of joy.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
Last year ended on a high note for many retailers, with cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence contributing to a robust holiday season. Still, 2023 was a year of headwinds for the sector, as consumers traded down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences.
In the midst of these challenges, some segments thrived. Continued prioritization of health and wellness by consumers drove strong visit growth for the Fitness and Beauty & Self Care segments – which emerged as 2023 winners and enjoyed positive foot traffic growth in Q4. At the same time, price consciousness drove foot traffic to Discount & Dollar Stores and Superstores, both of which made inroads into the affordable grocery space during the year.
The Grocery category, too, saw a 4.3% jump in visits last year compared to 2022, as well as a slight uptick in Q4 visits. And even the discretionary Dining sector held its own, with a 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) annual increase in foot traffic, and a Q4 quarterly visit gap of just 1.8%.
Fitness had a particularly strong 2023, buoyed by consumers’ sustained interest in self-care and wellness. Since the pandemic, gym memberships have graduated from a discretionary expense to something of a necessity – an important investment in health and wellbeing. The category has also likely continued to benefit from the post-COVID craving for experiences.
And quarterly data shows that the Fitness segment is positively flourishing. Throughout most of Q4 2023, Fitness venues experienced YoY weekly visit growth ranging from 8.8% to 12.2%. (The unusual visit spike and dip during the last two weeks of the quarter are due to calendar discrepancies: The week of December 18th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 19th, 2022, which included Christmas Day – while the week of December 25th, 2023 is being compared to the week of December 26th, 2022, which did not).
Drilling down into the data for several leading fitness chains shows that there’s plenty of success to go around. Crunch Fitness – ranked by Entrepreneur as 2024’s top fitness franchise – led the pack with a remarkable 28.2% YoY annual increase in visits, partly fueled by the steady expansion of its fleet. And while other value gyms like Planet Fitness also saw robust visit growth, the boost wasn’t limited to budget options. Given the Fitness sector’s already-impressive 2022 performance, the category’s strong YoY showing is especially noteworthy.
Beauty & Self Care was another category to benefit from 2023’s obsession with wellness – as well as the “lipstick effect”, which sees consumers treating themselves to fun, affordable luxuries when money’s tight. Driven in part by the evolving preferences of Gen Z consumers, cosmetics leaders have embraced wellness-focused approaches to cosmetics that prioritize self-care and self-expression. This strategy continues to prove successful: Throughout Q4 2023, Beauty & Self Care chains saw steady YoY weekly visit growth, especially in November and early December – perhaps highlighting Beauty’s growing role in the holiday shopping frenzy.
One brand leading the cosmetics pack in 2023 was Ulta Beauty – which drew growing crowds with its diverse product selection. Everybody loves makeup, and Ulta makes sure to have something for everyone – from discount fare to more upscale products. Buff City Soap, which now pairs its signature offerings with experiential vibes at some 270 locations across 33 states, also experienced YoY annual visit growth of 14.7%. And Bath & Body Works, which made the Wall Street Journal’s list of best-managed companies for 2023, also saw visit strength, with an overall increase in annual foot traffic, even as Q4 visits saw a slight decline.
If wellness was a key retail buzzword in 2023, value was an equally discussed topic. And Discount & Dollar Stores – ideal destinations for cash-strapped consumers seeking bargain merchandise – made the most of this opportunity. Shoppers frequented these chains year-round for everything from groceries to home goods, propelling the category firmly into the mainstream.
And in Q4 2023, shoppers flocked to discount chains in droves to snag food items, stocking stuffers, and other holiday fare – fueling near-uniform positive YoY foot traffic growth throughout the quarter. The week of October 30th seems to have kicked off the Discount & Dollar holiday shopping season, perhaps showcasing the segment’s growing role as a Halloween candy and costume hotspot.
Every discount chain is somewhat different – and the success of the various Discount & Dollar chains can be attributed to a range of factors. Dollar Tree and Dollar General likely benefited from the broadening and diversification of their grocery selections – while Ollie’s (“Get Good Stuff Cheap!”) solidified its position as a place to find relatively upscale items at a bargain. All three chains – and particularly Dollar General and Ollie’s – also grew their footprints over the past year. Family Dollar (also owned by Dollar Tree) also came out ahead on an annual basis – despite the comparison to a strong 2022.
Of all the Discount & Dollar chains, Five Below saw the biggest surge in foot traffic, partly as a result of its increasing store count. But the retailer’s offerings – affordable toys, party supplies, and other fun splurges – also appear to have been tailor-made for 2023’s retail vibe.
During the fourth quarter of the year, Superstores saw a slight YoY increase in visits – including during the all-important week of Black Friday, beginning on November 20th. (This week was compared with the week of November 21st, 2022, which also included Black Friday). Like Discount & Dollar chains, Superstores saw an appreciable YoY visit uptick during the week of Halloween.
On an annual basis, Superstore mainstays Walmart and Target experienced visit increases of 2.8% and 4.7%, respectively. But while all the major category players enjoyed a successful year, membership warehouse chains’ YoY visit numbers were especially strong. As perfect venues for mission-driven shopping expeditions, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s likely drew shoppers eager to load up on both inexpensive gifts and essentials.
The traditional Grocery sector also held its own during Q4 2023. Notably, grocery stores saw positive visit growth for most weeks of November and December, a period encompassing the critical Turkey Wednesday milestone – no small feat given the disruptions experienced by the category.
Unsurprisingly, it was discount grocery chains that saw some of the greatest YoY visit growth, as shoppers – including higher-income segments – sought to counter inflation with lower-priced food-at-home alternatives. Whether through opportunistic buying models, private label merchandising, or no-frills customer experiences, value supermarkets proved once again that even quality specialty items don’t have to carry high price tags.
Eating out can be expensive – and when money’s tight, restaurants and other discretionary categories are often first to feel the crunch. But the Dining category seems to have emerged from 2023 relatively unscathed, with overall yearly visits up 2.1% compared to 2022 despite the modest YoY weekly visit gaps in Q4 2023. And given the myriad challenges out-of-home eateries had to contend with in 2023 – from inflation to labor shortages – even the minor weekly gaps are quite an attainment. (As noted, the last two weeks of the quarter reflect calendar discrepancies).
Foot traffic data shows that dining success could be found across sub-categories. Wingstop, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s Subs rocked Fast Casual and QSR, with annual YoY visit growth ranging from 11.8% to 20.3%, partly fueled by the chains’ growing footprints. Full-Service Restaurants also had their bright spots, including all-you-can-eat buffet star Golden Corral and two steak venues: Texas Roadhouse and LongHorn Steakhouse.
And in the Coffee, Breakfast, and Bakeries space, Playa Bowls led the charge. The superfruit bowl chain’s affordable, wellness-oriented treats seem to have been created with 2023 in mind – and during the year Playa Bowls expanded its fleet while also seeing double-digit increases in comparable store sales. Steadily expanding Biggby Coffee and Dutch Bros. Coffee also saw significant YoY foot traffic growth.
New year, new retail opportunities. And though 2023 is firmly in the rearview mirror, the economic headwinds that characterized much of the year have yet to fully dissipate. But every challenge also brings with it new opportunities, and many retailers are adapting to meet their customers' changing wants and needs.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence for 10 brands poised to succeed in 2024. Some, like low-cost apparel and home furnishing stores, are benefitting from consumer trade-down. Others are expanding into rural or suburban areas to meet customers where they are. Read on for some of 2024’s retail winners.
Until around four years ago, New Balance sneakers were commonly seen on the feet of suburban dads – not exactly a recipe for high fashion. But all that began to change in 2019 when the company began collaborating with Teddy Santis, who eventually became New Balance’s creative director. Since then, the brand’s popularity has surged among Gen Z and X and is now one of the fastest-growing sneaker companies in the industry, despite the increasing competition in sneaker space. In 2023, foot traffic to New Balance stores grew 3.3% year-over-year (YoY) and the brand has firmly established itself as ultimate retro cool.
Diving into the demographics of New Balance stores’ captured market trade area reveals the success of the chain’s rebranding. In 2023, New Balance’s trade area included larger shares of “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Young Professionals,” and “Educated Urbanites” than the average shoe store’s trade area – highlighting New Balance’s successful reinvention as a brand for the young and hip.
The home improvement space is dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot – but Harbor Freight Tools is quickly making a name for itself as a go-to destination for affordable tools and supplies.
Over the past few years, Harbor Freight Tools has expanded rapidly, with many of its new stores opening in smaller towns and cities. And the expansion appears to be paying off, with visits up YoY during every month of 2023. And although the chain is now operating with a significantly larger store fleet, the average number of visits per venue has generally increased – indicating that the company is expanding into markets where it is meeting a ready demand.
Over a decade after Mackelmore dropped his smash hit “Thrift Shop” in 2012, second-hand stores are still enjoying their time in the limelight. Shoppers, driven by a desire to reduce waste, find unique styles, and to save a few dollars at the till, continue to flock to thrift stores. And Winmark Corporation, which operates five secondhand goods chains – including apparel brands Plato’s Closet (young adult clothes), Once Upon a Child (children's clothes and toys), and Style Encore (women's clothing) – has benefited from the strong demand. Visits to the three Winmark clothing banners increased an average of 5.3% YoY in 2023.
The median household income (HHI) in the trade areas of Winmark’s apparel chains tends to be lower than the median HHI in the wider apparel category – so budget-conscious consumers are driving at least some of the company’s growth. With more consumers looking for ways to cut back on spending in 2024, the demand for second-hand clothes is expected to grow even further – and Winmark is likely to continue reaping the benefits.
HomeGoods, a treasure hunter's dream, is the discount home furnishing retailer owned by off-price retail giant TJX Companies. The chain, which operates over 900 brick-and-mortar stores, recently closed its e-commerce platform to focus on its physical locations – where foot traffic grew 6.0% between 2023 and 2022.
HomeGoods carries kitchen and home decor items along with furniture, and may be benefiting from the relative strength of the houseware segment, driven in part by an increase in at-home entertainment. And in a surprising twist, this low-cost retailer attracts more affluent visitors than visitors to the home furnishing segment overall. The median household income (HHI) in HomeGoods’ trade area stood at $84.7K/year compared to a $78.5K median HHI in the trade area of the average home furnishing chain. As economic uncertainty and the resumption of student loan payments impact consumers, wealthier shoppers seeking a budget-friendly home refresh are likely to continue choosing HomeGoods over pricier alternatives.
Florida-based Bealls, Inc., which got its start as a small town five-and-dime in 1915 in Bradenton, Florida, now operates over 600 stores across the country. The company, which saw an impressive 9.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, recently consolidated its two largest banners – Burkes Outlet and Bealls Outlet – under the Bealls name.
One reason for Bealls’ success could be its appeal to rural consumers. Over the past five years, the share of households falling into Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Rural Average Income” segment has steadily increased, growing from 12.6% in 2019 to 15.1% in 2023. With rural shoppers continuing to command ever-more attention from retailers, the increase in visits from this segment bodes well for Bealls in 2024.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was built for this economy. The chain saw a 13.0% YoY increase in visits in 2023, thanks in part to its popularity among a wide array of budget-conscious consumers. Ollie’s has found success with rural shoppers while maintaining its appeal among value-oriented suburban segments – and the chain’s diverse audience base seems to be setting it apart from other discount retailers.
A closer look at the chain’s captured market data, layered with the Spatial.ai: Personalive dataset, reveals that Ollie’s trade area includes larger shares of the “Blue Collar Suburbs” and “Suburban Boomer” segments when compared to the wider Discount & Dollar Stores category. As the chain plots its expansion, focusing on suburban and rural areas may help Ollie’s meet its customers where they are.
Trader Joe’s has managed to do what few stores can. The company does not invest in marketing, has no online shopping options, and loyalty programs? Forget about it. But despite this unusual approach to running a business, the California native has enjoyed consistent success over the years, with a 12.4% YoY increase in visits in 2023.
Trader Joe’s is particularly popular among younger shoppers, perhaps thanks to the company’s focus on sustainability and social responsibility – as well as its famously low prices. Analyzing the chain’s trade area using the AGS: Panorama dataset reveals that Trader Joe’s attracts more “Emerging Leaders” and “Young Coastal Technocrats” (segments that describe highly educated young professionals) than the average grocery chain. With Gen Z particularly concerned about putting their money where their mouth is, Trader Joe’s is likely to sustain its momentum in 2024 and beyond.
Convenience stores are growing up and evolving into bona-fide dining destinations. And Foxtrot, a Chicago-based chain with 29 stores across Texas, Illinois, Washington, Maryland, and Virginia, is one c-store redefining what a convenience store can be. The chain, which announced a merger with Dom’s Kitchen in November 2023, offers an upscale convenience store experience and is particularly known for including local brands in its product assortment as well as its excellent wine curation and dining options.
Visitors to the chain were significantly more likely to fall into AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset’s “Wine Drinker” or “Nutritionally Aware” segments than visitors to nearby convenience stores. The company plans to ramp up store openings, particularly in the suburbs, where convenience and a good bottle of wine might just find the perfect home as a welcome distraction from the daily grind.
Jersey Mike’s is one of the fastest-growing franchise dining chains in the country, operating over 2,500 locations in all 50 states. The sandwich chain has seen its popularity take off over the past few years, with 2023 visits up 14.1% YoY and plans to open 350 new stores in 2024.
The company has long prioritized affluent class suburban customers – and visitation data layered with the Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that Jersey Mike’s has indeed succeeded in attracting this audience. The percentage of “Booming with Confidence” and “Flourishing Families” (both affluent segments) in Jersey Mike’s trade area was larger than in the trade areas of the average sub sandwich chain. As Jersey Mike’s continues its expansion, focusing on suburban areas may continue to serve the chain well.
The East Coast may not be the first region that pops to mind when thinking about tropical smoothies – but New Jersey-based Playa Bowls is making it work. The company was founded by avid surf enthusiasts determined to bring the flavors of their favorite surfing towns stateside.
Playa Bowls has enjoyed strong visit numbers in 2023, with overall visits up 23.0% and average visits per venue up 17.1% YoY – and part of the chain’s success may be driven by its ability to draw wealthier customers to its stores. The Experian: Mosaic dataset reveals that the “Power Elite” segment is overrepresented in the company’s trade areas: The share of households falling into that segment from Playa Bowl’s captured market exceeded their share in the company’s potential market. As the chain continues expanding its domestic footprint, it seems to have found its niche among a wealthy customer base.
The past year saw a wide range of challenges facing brick-and-mortar retailers as economic fears continued to shake consumer confidence. But there are plenty of bright spots as the new year gets underway. These ten brands prove that the retail world never stands still, and that the next opportunity is just around the corner.
