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About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
After a brief calendar-driven slowdown in April, May saw a resurgence in foot traffic to malls. Indoor malls led the way with an 8.6% YoY increase, followed by open-air shopping centers and outlet malls, which experienced YoY jumps of 6.2% and 5.7%, respectively.
This uptick is likely due to a variety of factors – from warmer weather to rising consumer confidence amidst slowly easing inflation. And malls’ particularly strong showing on two of May’s most important retail milestones – Mother’s day and Memorial day also helped propel the segment forward.
Taking a closer look at visit patterns to the three mall types on Mother’s Day and Memorial Day shows how significant these special days were for mall foot traffic. On Mother’s Day (May 12th), indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls saw respective visit spikes of 15.8%, 26.0%, and 11.4%, compared to an average year-to-date (YTD) Sunday. And Mother’s Day visits were up significantly YoY as well – further highlighting the category’s robust positioning.
All three mall types also saw impressive visit bumps on Memorial Day – this time compared to an average YTD Monday. The relative spikes were bigger across the board, since malls tend to be less busy on Mondays than on Sundays. But for outlet malls, Memorial Day visits really hit it out of the park – with foot traffic up by a whopping 123.3%. As a day off work featuring plenty of markdowns, Memorial Day is an ideal time to make the longer trip to an outlet mall and hunt for bargains.
And in another promising sign for the category, Memorial Day visits to all three mall types increased YoY – showing that despite continued headwinds, malls are still on the rise.
Comparing weekly mall visits to an early January baseline also shows the varying impact of different holidays on the three mall types.
On Easter, and even more so on Memorial Day – an extended weekend very much focused on savings – outlet malls won the day. On these holidays, shoppers may be more likely to have the time and state of mind to make a day of their shopping trip and lean into the treasure-hunting experience.
But on Mother’s Day, more upscale open-air shopping centers took the lead, as consumers embraced a more unique and luxurious shopping experience. Still, all three mall types drew increased traffic on the different special days – showing that each can benefit from a variety of calendar highlights.
Malls’ strong May performance – especially on the holidays – shows that shopping centers are on the upswing once again. This could be an encouraging sign for the category heading into the summer, and may hint at a promising shopping season during the warm months ahead.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at Placer.ai.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
With summer nearly upon us, we dove into the data to see how the return-to-office fared in May 2024. Did the post-pandemic visit recovery trajectory observed in April continue apace? And which major regional hub saw the most YoY visit growth?
The office recovery is still very much underway. Visits to office buildings nationwide in May 2024 were just 32.2% lower than in May 2019 – and slightly higher than they’ve been during any other month since COVID. Year-over-year (YoY), office foot traffic in May increased by 8.6%.
And drilling down into the data for 11 major business hubs nationwide shows recovery continuing unabated throughout (most of) the country. For New York, Atlanta, Boston, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, May 2024 was the single busiest in-office month since February 2020. And for Miami, Washington, D.C., and Denver, it was the second-busiest month.
Consistent with recent trends, Miami continued to lead the post-COVID recovery pack, followed by New York: Foot traffic to the two cities was just 12.8% and 17.3%, respectively, below May 2019 levels.
But the data also contained some surprises. Atlanta, which saw the biggest YoY visit jump of any analyzed city, pulled into third place – outpacing Washington, D.C. And Houston, the only city to see a YoY decline in visits, fell significantly in the rankings.
Why did Houston YoY office visits drop in May? A look at weekly YoY visits to local office buildings confirms that this was likely due to the extreme weather that engulfed the city during the second half of the month. On Thursday, May 16th, Houston was hit by a particularly violent storm that caused significant damage to the downtown area – breaking windows, downing power lines, and leaving a battered city in its wake. Additional severe weather events pummeled the region as the month wore on – forcing many residents to hunker down at home. And it was when the storm hit that YoY visits began to turn negative, with the week of May 20th seeing a significant 20.0% drop. As the weather improves in the southeast Texas hub, office recovery will likely resume.
Five years after COVID upended office routines, employees and companies are still feeling out the ideal balance between WFH and in-person interaction. Will office attendance increase or decrease as the weather warms up?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven office analyses to find out.
With summer upon us, we dove into the data to explore Memorial Day foot traffic trends. How did people spend the long weekend? And how did major dining and retail categories fare on the holiday?
Gas stations were bustling on Friday, May 24th, as people filled their tanks in anticipation of a long, travel or activity-filled weekend. Visits to gas stations were up 32.3% compared to an average day this year – and the highest they’ve been since January 1st, 2024.
Year over year (YoY), gas station foot traffic increased 1.5%. And compared to pre-COVID, too, gas station visits were up 1.8% – showing that people are once again hitting the road, whether to go on weekend getaways or to visit nearby parks and attractions.
Indeed, Americans partake in many different activities on Memorial Day – from attending parades and memorial events to sight-seeing or enjoying the great outdoors. And visiting museums is a time-honored holiday tradition: On Monday, May 27th, museums nationwide drew a whopping 71.5% more visits than on an average Monday this year.
YoY, Museums were 1.6% busier on May 27th than in 2023 – and museum-goers spent more time exploring the exhibits (who says attention spans are decreasing?), browsing the gift shop, or fueling up at the cafeteria.
Memorial Day weekend is a prime time for picnics and barbecues. But for many Americans, it’s also an opportunity to enjoy a nice meal at a restaurant with friends and family.
Like on Mother’s Day, full-service restaurants get a much bigger Memorial Day visit boost than either fast-casual eateries or fast-food (QSR) joints. But all three dining segments enjoyed a significant YoY holiday visit increase this year – proving that despite still-high food-away-from-home prices, people are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves on their day off.
And the last Monday in May is, of course, a big day for savings, on everything from big-ticket items like mattresses, furniture, and major appliances, to clothing and other discretionary items. This year, apparel stores saw the biggest Memorial Day visit spike, with foot traffic up 40.5% compared to an average day and 88.2% compared to an average Monday. But home furnishing stores, home improvement stores, electronics retailers, and (to a lesser extent), grocery stores, all experienced considerable holiday visit spikes of their own.
And comparing Memorial Day retail activity to last year shows most of the analyzed categories seeing minor visit increases or holding steady – no small feat in today’s challenging retail environment. Like dining segments, grocery stores impressed with a 9.3% YoY visit increase – perhaps buoyed by consumers buying last-minute ingredients for their picnics or barbecues.
People were on the move this year on Memorial Day – fueling up their cars, and enjoying museums, restaurants, and retail sales. What does the rest of the summer hold in store for American consumers?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven analyses to find out.
Known as the entertainment capital of the world, Las Vegas has always been a tourist hotspot. But for a growing segment of the population, Vegas is also becoming a popular place to lay down permanent roots. We dove into the tourism and migration data for the region in order to take a closer look at Las Vegas’ changing visitor and resident populations.
Like many vacation destinations, Las Vegas took a significant tourism hit at the onset of COVID. But with travel restrictions now a thing of the past, visitation to Las Vegas is roaring back.
Analyzing travel to Las Vegas using the Travel & Tourism Report shows that since the halfway mark of 2023, the total number of visit nights spent by travelers in the city (i.e. by those staying up 31 days) have consistently outperformed pre-pandemic levels. And with the sole exception of July 2023, visit nights have increased year-over-year (YoY) as well.
Alongside robust demand for experiences, investment in new, one-of-a-kind entertainment venues like the Sphere – which opened towards the end of 2023 – has likely played a part in reigniting tourism.
Who are the tourists driving this comeback? To explore the demographic characteristics of today’s visitors to Las Vegas, we zoomed in on the Las Vegas Strip – the iconic epicenter of it all, where most of the city’s luxury hotels, shops, restaurants, and casinos are concentrated.
Analysis of the Strip’s captured market with demographic data from AGS: Demographic Dimensions reveals that as tourist activity in the city began to pick up again, the median household income (HHI) of visitors to the Strip increased steadily. In Q1 2024, the median HHI of visitors to the Strip reached $93.0K, perhaps aided by tourism surrounding this year’s Super Bowl.
This indicates that the Strip is becoming a more upscale visit destination, and that demand for Vegas’ luxury offerings are driving visits. As more consumers with ample discretionary dollars make their way to Vegas, pricey shows – in addition to retail – are likely to become ever-more lucrative advertising opportunities.
A tourism boom isn’t the only phenomenon making waves in Sin City. In recent years, more and more out-of-towners have made Greater Las Vegas their home, and unlike some pandemic-era migration hotspots, Las Vegas continues to attract new residents.
Migration data indicates that many of those moving in are high-earners who are likely incentivized by the cost of living and tax benefits in the region.
Between December 2019 and December 2023, the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise CBSA experienced net-positive domestic migration of 3.9%. In other words, the total number of people that moved to Las Vegas over the four-year period from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left, was equivalent to 3.9% of the region’s December 2023 population. Meanwhile, analysis of the CBSA’s origin to destination HHI ratio reveals that between December 2019 and December 2023, the median HHI of incoming residents was 20% higher than the median HHI of the local population.
And comparing migration data in December 2023 to December 2020, 2021, and 2022, revealed consistently positive net migration and origin to destination HHI ratios in the years since 2019. This indicates that the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise CBSA continues to attract many new and affluent residents. When planning future amenities and services, the region may want to take into account the opportunities – and challenges – presented by these population shifts.
Be it for a quick trip or full-on relocation, Las Vegas remains a prime destination in both the U.S. tourism and domestic migration landscapes. New entertainment venues and amenities keep Vegas top-of-mind for upscale vacationers while economic incentives drive moves from a high-income cohort.
For more tourism and migration insights, visit Placer.ai.
Last summer’s touring sensations Taylor Swift and Beyonce held concerts that will remain in the hearts of many. With thousands in attendance, both live tours were absolute juggernauts. It was like an adrenaline shot for the performing arts category after COVID-induced closures. Remember the days of drive-in concerts as a panacea? While these two reigning Queens of Music took top billing, there are hundreds of local venues around the country that cater to smaller audiences at a time but are no less impactful on their communities. These are the heart and soul for local plays, musicals, symphonies, operas, touring bands, and art exhibitions. Fundraisers are often held at community performance venues, and they can be incubators for performers to move on to a larger stage.
Placer recently attended the California Presenters Conference, which includes representatives from California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. Programming directors, events managers, and community liaisons all met to share best practices, challenges, and successes. One box office manager, Jonathan Lizardo of the Lisa Smith Wengler Center for the Arts at Pepperdine University, noted that “Nostalgia” was an important theme at his performing arts center, with a recent live show of the Animaniacs in Concert proving to be a hit with adults and kids alike. In this case, his patrons were seeking some escapism and levity in their lives. On the other end of the spectrum, the arts can also be a powerful way to engage the audience in more serious issues, as one panel on Responding to Global Conflict at arts venues drew a crowd. Another topic of interest was the importance of engaging youth with the arts, through school-sponsored visits or after school enrichment. Many University performing arts centers reps were also in attendance, such as USC Vision and Voices, Stanford Live, Caltech Presents, and Seattle University.
Placer’s presentation touched on macrotrends around discretionary spend, examples of venue attendance around the US, an analysis of the visitation trends, audience profile, and economic impact of Taylor Swift’s US tour, and in depth look at a select group of performing arts centers in Arizona to see the role that they play in their community.
Mesa Arts Center has had the highest overall visitation in the past 12 months. Located in Mesa, AZ, it encompasses over 210,000 sq ft and was completed in 2005 at the cost of $95 million. In addition to four performance venues, it is also home to Mesa Contemporary Arts Museum. Programming is suited to a multitude of interests, including National Geographic Live, Broadway, classical music, popular music, ethnic artists, western artists, and dance. It also offers Art Studio for visual arts classes; Opportunities for Ages 55+ such as flamenco classes; and Festivals and Events, such as Dia de Los Muertos. Within the theaters complex, there are four theaters--the 1,570-seat Tom and Janet Ikeda Theater, 550-seat Virginia G. Piper Repertory Theater, 200-seatNesbitt/Elliott Playhouse, and the 99-seat Anita Cox Farnsworth Studio.
The Chandler Center for the Arts recently celebrated its 35th season. Upcoming performances include ballet like Coppelia or live music, such as Billy Joel’s The Stranger. Entertaining acts such as Stomp, Piano Battle, and Cirque du Soleil will also make their way over during the 2024-2025 season. Located in downtown Chandler, the venue includes three dynamic performance spaces (the 1,500-seat Main Stage, the 350-seat Hal Bogle Theatre, and the 250-seat Recital Hall) as well as two extensive art galleries (The Gallery at CCA and Vision Gallery).
While Scottsdale Center for the Performing Arts had the fewest absolute visits in the past 12 months, its year-over-year variance increase has been the highest.
What might account for the difference, one might wonder. Fortunately, Placer data enables one to compare a venue against itself in order to highlight differences from one year to the next. According to the 2023-2024 calendar, it appears that Hubbard Street Dance Chicago playing 2 nights in a row, was a hit with the audience during the week of Jan 29-Feb 4.
It appears the increase in visits cannot be attributed to a single segment. In fact, visits across multiple segments increased year-over-year when comparing May 2023 - April 2024 (blue) vs. May 2022-April 2023 (red) per Spatial.ai PersonaLive.
The most recent 12 months also attracted visits from a much larger trade area.
Migration may also be a factor in the increase of visits to the Scottsdale Performing Arts Center. Placer’s Migration Dashboard is noting an increase in both residents and seasonal visitors over the years.
Eatertainment chains – entertainment concepts that combine dining and play – are thriving in the current experience economy. We dove into the data for game and restaurant chains Dave & Buster’s and Main Event Entertainment (acquired by Dave & Buster’s in 2022) to better understand how eatertainment is driving success in 2024.
The past few years have been challenging ones for restaurants. But eatertainment has a special draw – and since November 2023, both Dave & Buster’s and Main Event Entertainment have seen mainly positive YoY visit growth.
In January 2024, visits slowed in the wake of extreme weather that rocked much of the country and led many would-be diners to stay home. But in February and March 2024 things picked up again, with the two chains seeing YoY visit growth ranging from 4.6% to 10.6%.
Again in April 2024, both Dave & Buster’s and Main Event Entertainment experienced minor visit gaps. But a closer look at weekly visits reveals that this was largely due to a calendar shift: April 2024 had one fewer Saturday than April 2023 – the chains' busiest day of the week by far. (In Q1 2024, Saturdays accounted for 33.8% of total visits to Main Event Entertainment and 33.3% of visits to Dave & Buster’s). And during nearly every individual week of April 2024, the brands maintained strongly positive momentum.
Dave & Buster’s and Main Event Entertainment recent visit growth has been partly fueled by the two chains’ growing store counts. And a deeper dive into how the chains’ visitation patterns have evolved since COVID shows why they are well-positioned for continued expansion – and success.
One factor likely contributing to the eatertainment brands’ strength is the increasing loyalty of their visitors. Dave & Buster’s leveled up its rewards program in 2021 – and has been upping its loyalty game ever since. Members can access special deals, like the chain’s recent 50% off food promotion, and earn points by playing games or ordering off the menu. Main Event, too, keeps customers coming back with a variety of promotions, from Monday Night Madness to Kids Eat Free Tuesdays – a particularly attractive offer for the chain’s family-oriented audience.
And since 2019, both chains have seen a steady increase in the share of visits made by customers frequenting the chain at least twice a month.
In addition, both Dave & Buster’s and Main Event appear to be finding success by leaning into the evening daypart.
Back in 2019, Main Event introduced a late-night menu and announced that all of its stores would be open until at least 12:00 AM – and even later on Fridays and Saturdays. (Even before that, some of its stores were open during the wee hours). Dave & Buster’s has also taken steps to increase its night-time business with special late-night deals and happy hours.
And location analytics indicates that this strategy is bearing fruit. Over the past several years, both brands have experienced an increase in their share of late-night visits (i.e. those taking place between 9:00 PM and 2:00 AM). And in Q1 2024, Dave & Buster’s and Main Event saw 23.9% and 27.3% of their total visits during the late-night daypart, respectively.
While it might be assumed that at-home entertainment and the "Netflix effect" pose a threat to eatertainment chains (particularly during the evening hours, as there is more content than ever to get home to), the data suggests that many consumers are staying out late for social dining and entertainment.
Demand for dining and social experiences continues to grow. As consumer behavior and demographics evolve, how will these eatertainment chains perform and which new concepts may rise to prominence as 2024 progresses?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
